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The development of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the northeast Pacific and their impacts on lower-tropospheric air temperatures over the Pacific Northwest are examined. Northeast Pacific SST anomalies are influenced by the synoptic-scale flow, with high pressure and weak surface winds associated with developing warm SST anomalies, while large pressure gradients and strong surface winds result in SST declines. SST over the northeast Pacific correlates significantly with surface air temperatures over the Pacific Northwest, with correlations increasing when high-frequency variability is filtered out. The correlations between unfiltered time series of SST and surface air temperature are largest for a zero-day lag and are strongest near the coast, contrasting with weaker correlations over the Columbia basin east of the Cascade Mountains. SST correlations with minimum surface air temperature are largest during the warm season, and maximum temperature correlations are highest in March; both have low correlations during autumn. Model simulations of periods with warm and cold northeast Pacific SST anomalies possess lower-tropospheric air temperature warming or cooling over the coastal zone, with SST influence weakening east of the Cascade crest. Eastern Pacific SST anomalies influence sea level pressure and lower-tropospheric heights, with warm SST anomalies resulting in simulated lowered pressure near the surface and increased heights aloft. The relationship between northeast Pacific SST and surface air temperature over land evince complex feedbacks: SST temperature anomalies can be advected inland from the Pacific, the SST anomalies can influence the synoptic-scale flow that affects the SST anomalies, and the synoptic-scale anomalies that produce the SST anomalies can directly influence temperatures over land. Significance Statement Understanding the connection between northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures and low-level air temperatures over land is valuable for both subseasonal prediction and for examining the fidelity of model physics.

The Camp Fire event was associated with dry, northeasterly winds that descended the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada of Northern California during the early morning hours of 8 November 2018. The downslope winds peaked around sunrise, with strong winds pushing the fire rapidly toward Paradise, California. Similar to recent central/Northern California wildfires associated with downslope winds, the synoptic pattern was characterized by building sea level pressure over the Intermountain West and a trough along the coastal zone, with both the synoptic evolution and low-level winds skillfully forecast by operational models. The maximum wind gusts along the western Sierra Nevada slopes ranged from 10–20 kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s−1) at sheltered locations to 50–60 kt at exposed sites on the mid- to upper slopes of the barrier. The highest winds were not climatologically exceptional, and low-level temperatures were cooler than normal over and to the east of the Sierra Nevada, near normal over the western slopes, and warmer than normal over coastal California. Drier-than-normal conditions prevailed during the ∼3 days preceding and during the event, as a result of downslope winds. The origin of the fire can be traced to strong winds interacting with a failing electrical transmission infrastructure, with highly flammable surface fuels fostering rapid fire movement between the ignition source and Paradise.

A series of major fires spread across eastern Washington and western Oregon starting on September 7, 2020, driven by strong easterly and northeasterly winds gusting to ~70 kt at exposed locations. This event was associated with a high-amplitude upper-level ridge over the eastern Pacific and a mobile trough that moved southward on its eastern flank. The synoptic environment during the event was highly unusual, with the easterly 925-hPa wind speeds at Salem, Oregon, being unprecedented for the August-September period. The September 2020 wildfires produced dense smoke that initially moved westward over the Willamette Valley and eventually covered the region. As a result, air quality rapidly degraded to hazardous levels, representing the worst air quality period of recent decades. High-resolution numerical simulations using the WRF model indicated the importance of a high-amplitude mountain wave in producing strong easterly winds over western Oregon.The dead fuel moisture levels over eastern Washington before the fires were typical for that time of the year. Along the western slopes of the Oregon Cascades, where the fuels are largely comprised of a dense conifer forest with understory vegetation, fire weather indices were lower (moister) than normal during the early part of the summer, but transitioned to above-normal (drier) values during August, with a spike to record values in early September coincident with the strong easterly winds.Forecast guidance was highly accurate for both the Washington and Oregon wildfire events. Analyses of climatological data and fuel indices did not suggest that unusual pre-existing climatic conditions were major drivers of the September 2020 Northwest wildfires.

During late summer 2020, large wildfires over the Pacific Northwest produced dense smoke that impacted the region for an extended period. During this period of poor air quality, persistent low-level cloud coverage was poorly forecast by operational numerical weather prediction models, which dissipated clouds too quickly or produced insufficient cloud coverage extent. This deficiency raises questions about the influence of wildfire smoke on low-level clouds in the marine environment of the Pacific Northwest.This paper investigates the effects of wildfire smoke on the properties of low-level clouds, including their formation, microphysical properties, and dissipation. A case study from 12-14 September 2020 is used as a testbed to evaluate the impact of wildfire smoke on such clouds. Observations from satellites and surface observing sites, coupled with mesoscale model simulations, are applied to understand the influence of wildfire smoke during this event. Results indicate that the presence of thick smoke over Washington led to decreased temperatures in the lower troposphere which enhanced low-level cloud coverage, with smoke particles altering the microphysical structure of clouds to favor high concentrations of small droplets. Thermodynamic changes due to smoke are found to be the primary driver of enhanced cloud lifetime during these events, with microphysical changes to clouds as a secondary contributing factor. However, both the thermodynamic and microphysical effects are necessary to produce a realistic simulation.

A series of large wildfires began over the terrain north of San Francisco, California, during the evening of 8 October 2017 and spread across nearly 250,000 acres, including areas near the towns of Santa Rosa and Napa. These “Wine Country” wildfires were the most destructive in California history, with 44 deaths; the loss of 9,000 buildings; damage to approximately 21,000 structures; $10 billion of insured losses; and substantially greater total economic loss.This paper describes the synoptic and mesoscale conditions that were associated with the wildfires, with strong, easterly “Diablo” winds playing a central role in both initiating and supporting the fires. The climatological conditions preceding the fires are reviewed, including near-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures during the summer, as well as much above-normal precipitation the previous winter, which led to abundant dry grass that provided fuel for the wind-driven fires.High-resolution meteorological modeling realistically simulated the strong winds associated with this event. Importantly, operational mesoscale forecast models provided excellent forecasts of the high winds several days in advance. It appears that a vulnerable power system, urbanization of fire-prone areas, flammable invasive species, and poor communication of dangerous conditions contributed to this catastrophic event. The potential for mitigating or preventing such destructive wildfires using skillful weather prediction is examined, as well as the possible role of global warming.

This paper examines the potential of regional environmental prediction by focusing on the local forecasting effort in the Pacific Northwest. A consortium of federal, state, and local agencies have funded the development and operation of a multifaceted numerical prediction system centered at the University of Washington that includes atmospheric, hydrologic, and air quality models, the collection of real-time regional weather data sources, and a number of real-time applications using both observations and model output. The manuscript reviews northwest modeling and data collection systems, describes the funding and management system established to support and guide the effort, provides some examples of regional real-time applications, and examines the national implications of regional environmental prediction.

This paper examines the impacts of increasing horizontal resolution on the performance of mesoscale numerical weather prediction models. A review of previous studies suggests that decreasing grid spacing to approximately 10 km or less generally produces more realistic mesoscale structures, with particular benefits for orographically and diurnally driven flows. There have been only a few long-term objective verification studies of high-resolution forecasts, and these studies suggest, perhaps deceptively, that there are diminishing returns as horizontal grid spacing decreases below approximately 10 km. A multiyear objective verification of the University of Washington MM5 real-time forecasting system compares the realism of predicted surface parameters at 36-, 12-, and 4-km grid spacing over western Washington state for periods up to 48 h. Traditional verification statistics (such as mean absolute, bias, and root-mean-square error) are calculated by interpolating model forecasts to the observation sites. Fo...

The timing and strength of surface troughs forecast by the Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP's) Eta Model are evaluated over the eastern Pacific during the 1997–2000 cool seasons (Sep–Mar). The troughs are verified by comparing observations from eight offshore buoys with 3–48-h model forecasts. An automated approach is used to identify trough events by setting thresholds for 3-hourly cyclonic wind shifts and pressure rises. The mean timing errors (biases) for surface troughs in the 36-km resolution MM5 domain are 1–2 h early (negative) to the north of 42°N and near the coast, and 0.5–1.0 h late (positive) over the offshore waters to the south of 42°N. The mean absolute timing errors range from 2–3 h for the southern offshore sites to 4–5 h over northern offshore waters as well as near steep coastal terrain. For stronger trough events, the MM5 trough mean errors...

How the time-mean Hadley and Walker circulations affect the formation of a low-level equatorial easterly jet is investigated. Experiments are conducted for equinoctial conditions using a general circulation model, the Community Climate Model (CCM1), that includes a Kuo convective scheme and a lower boundary that is specified to be water at a fixed sea surface temperature (SST). Several zonally symmetric SST forcings are used to determine how various Hadley circulations affect the tropical zonal wind field. A zonal wavenumber one equatorial SST anomaly superimposed on a zonally symmetric SST distribution forces a wind field that includes both Hadley and Walker circulations. The Hadley circulation experiments produce equatorial easterlies and low-level jets on the poleward sides of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) 10° to 15° from the equator. In an experiment with a single, dominant off-equatorial ITCZ in the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere jet moves to within 7.5° of the equa...