17 results on '"Davis, Neil N."'
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2. The Global Wind Atlas: A high-resolution dataset of climatologies and associated web-based application
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Davis, Neil N., Badger, Jake, Hahmann, Andrea N., Hansen, Brian O., Mortensen, Niels G., Kelly, Mark, Larsén, Xiaoli G., Olsen, Bjarke T., Floors, Rogier, Lizcano, Gil, Casso, Pau, Lacave, Oriol, Bosch, Albert, Bauwens, Ides, Knight, Oliver James, Loon, Albertine Potter van, Fox, Rachel, Parvanyan, Tigran, Hansen, Søren Bo Krohn, Heathfield, Duncan, Onninen, Marko, Drummond, Ray, Davis, Neil N., Badger, Jake, Hahmann, Andrea N., Hansen, Brian O., Mortensen, Niels G., Kelly, Mark, Larsén, Xiaoli G., Olsen, Bjarke T., Floors, Rogier, Lizcano, Gil, Casso, Pau, Lacave, Oriol, Bosch, Albert, Bauwens, Ides, Knight, Oliver James, Loon, Albertine Potter van, Fox, Rachel, Parvanyan, Tigran, Hansen, Søren Bo Krohn, Heathfield, Duncan, Onninen, Marko, and Drummond, Ray
- Abstract
The Global Wind Atlas (GWA) provides high-resolution databases and maps of the wind resource for all land points within 200 km of the coastline, excluding Antarctica. The GWA is used to identify and understand the global, national, regional, and local potential for wind energy and to guide energy specialists, policymakers, and planners in the transition to a sustainable energy system. This information is vital to ensuring the growth of wind energy, helping to transition to a sustainable energy system, which will mitigate climate change and meet the world’s need for reliable, affordable, and clean energy. The GWA uses the established numerical wind atlas methodology to downscale coarse-resolution wind data to microscale, using linearized flow modeling and high-resolution topographic data. There have been three versions of the GWA, each using mesoscale model data at successively higher spatial resolution. A website and Geographic Information System (GIS) files support quick and in-depth analysis. Validation data and analysis, using measurements from tall masts located worldwide, are also provided through the web application. The development process of the GWA involves a dialogue between meteorological modelers, wind energy development experts, web designers, and representatives of the end-users to provide accurate data in a dynamic and relevant way. This article outlines the general method, specific development, and application of the Global Wind Atlas.
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- 2023
3. Mesoscale and Microscale Downscaling for the Wind Atlas of South Africa (WASA) Project: Phase 3
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Hahmann, Andrea N., Floors, Rogier R., Lennard, Christopher, Cavar, Dalibor, Olsen, Bjarke T., Davis, Neil N., Mortensen, Niels G., and Hansen, Jens C.
- Abstract
This document reports on the methods used to create and the results of the WRF-based numerical wind atlases developed for the Wind Atlas for South Africa Phase 3 (WASA3) project.The report is divided into four main parts. In the first part, we document the method used to run the mesoscale simulations and to select the best suited WRF model configuration using the measurements from the WASA masts. In the second part, we describe the method used to generalise and downscale the WRF model wind climate. We compare the results from the downscaled numerical wind atlas against the observed wind statistics from the 19 WASA masts in the third part. In the last part, we present the new wind resource maps and their long-term climatology. In WASA3, there have been many updates to the configuration of the 2018 WASA2 simulations documented inHahmann et al (2018). Among the most important:• We ran thirteen two-year simulations covering the period most observed in all the WASA sites to find the WRF model configuration most suited to the simulation of the wind climatology over South Africa.• We used a new method of generalisation and downscaling of the WRF-derived wind climate that uses the PyWAsP engine and was demonstrated more accurate than the previous approach.• We produced the most extensive to date wind climatology for South Africa, 30 years (1990–2019) simulation covering all South Africa at 3.33 km x 3.33 km spatial resolution and 30 minutes time output.The final error statistics of the WASA3 wind atlas show that the WRF+PyWAsP method has a MAPE of 14.2 % and 4.3 % for the long-term power density and wind speed, respectively. This is improved from the same validation in WASA2. When ignoring the two more complex masts, WM09 and WM11, the WRF and WRF+PyWAsP downscaling significantly narrows the error distributions for both long-term wind speed and power density.
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- 2021
4. Mesoscale and microscale downscaling for the Wind Atlas of Mexico (WAM) project
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Olsen, Bjarke Tobias, Hahmann, Andrea N., Floors, Rogier R., Cavar, Dalibor, Peña, Alfredo, Villanueva, Héctor, Davis, Neil N., and Hansen, Jens C.
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SDG 13 - Climate Action - Abstract
This document reports on the production of the Wind Atlas of Mexico (WAM), including the methods used to create the mesoscale component based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and the microscale component based on downscaling of WRF using the Wind Atlas Analysis and Applications Program (WAsP). The report is divided into four main parts. In the first part, we document the method used to run the mesoscale simulations and to select the best suited WRF model configuration. The best model configuration is found by evaluation against the measurements from the WAM masts using various metrics. In the second part, we describe the method used to generalize and downscale the WRF model wind climate using PyWAsP, a python interface to run WAsP. We compare the results from the downscaled numerical wind atlas against the observed wind statistics from seven WAM masts in the third part to find the optimal configuration. In the last part we present the new wind resource maps for all of Mexico and their longterm climatology. In WAM, there have been many updates to the configuration DTU normally uses to perform wind atlases and that has been documented in Hahmann et al. (2018). Among the most important:1. We ran simulations for an equivalent of ten years covering the period most observed in all the WAM sites to find the WRF model configuration most suited to the simulation of the wind climatology over Mexico.2. We used a new method of generalization and downscaling of the WRFderived wind climate that uses the PyWAsP engine and was demonstrated more accurate than the previous approaches.3. We produced a high resolution (up to date) wind climatology for Mexico using the latest WRF Version 4.2.1, covering 10 years (2011{2020) of simulation for all Mexico at 3 km x 3 km spatial resolution and one hour time output.The final error statistics of the WAM wind atlas show that the WRF+PyWAsP method has a MAPE of 11.7% and 5.6% for the long-term power density and wind speed, respectively. When ignoring the mast in more complex terrain, M7, the WRF and WRF+PyWAsP downscaling significantly narrows the error distributions for both long-term wind speed and power density
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- 2021
5. The Making of the New European Wind Atlas. Pt.1: Model Sensitivity
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Hahmann, Andrea N., Sile, Tija, Witha, Björn, Davis, Neil N., Dörenkämper, Martin, Ezber, Yasemin, Garcia-Bustamante, Elena, Gonzales-Rouco, J. Fidel, Navarro, Jorge, Olsen, Bjarke T., Söderberg, Stefan, and Publica
- Abstract
This is the first of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). It describes the sensitivity analysis and evaluation procedures that formed the basis for choosing the final setup of the mesoscale model simulations of the wind atlas. The suitable combination of model setup and parameterizations, bound by practical constraints, was found for simulating the climatology of the wind field at turbine-relevant heights with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial WRF model sensitivity experiments compared the wind climate generated by using two commonly used planetary boundary layer schemes and were carried out over several regions in Europe. They confirmed that the most significant differences in annual mean wind speed at 100 m a.g.l. (above ground level) mostly coincide with areas of high surface roughness length and not with the location of the domains or maximum wind speed. Then an ensemble of more than 50 simulations with different setups for a single year was carried out for one domain covering northern Europe for which tall mast observations were available. We varied many different parameters across the simulations, e.g. model version, forcing data, various physical parameterizations, and the size of the model domain. These simulations showed that although virtually every parameter change affects the results in some way, significant changes in the wind climate in the boundary layer are mostly due to using different physical parameterizations, especially the planetary boundary layer scheme, the representation of the land surface, and the prescribed surface roughness length. Also, the setup of the simulations, such as the integration length and the domain size, can considerably influence the results. We assessed the degree of similarity between winds simulated by the WRF ensemble members and the observations using a suite of metrics, including the Earth Mover's Distance (EMD), a statistic that measures the distance between two probability distributions. The EMD was used to diagnose the performance of each ensemble member using the full wind speed and direction distribution, which is essential for wind resource assessment. We identified the most realistic ensemble members to determine the most suitable configuration to be used in the final production run, which is fully described and evaluated in the second part of this study (Dörenkämper et al., 2020).
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- 2020
6. The Making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 2: Production and evaluation
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Dörenkämper, Martin, Olsen, Bjarke Tobias, Witha, Björn, Hahmann, Andrea N., Davis, Neil N., Barcons, Jordi, Ezber, Yasemin, García-Bustamante, Elena, González-Rouco, J. Fidel, Navarro, Jorge, Sastre-Marugán, Mariano, Sīle, Tija, Trei, Wilke, Žagar, Mark, Badger, Jake, Gottschall, Julia, Sanz Rodrigo, Javier, Mann, Jakob, Dörenkämper, Martin, Olsen, Bjarke Tobias, Witha, Björn, Hahmann, Andrea N., Davis, Neil N., Barcons, Jordi, Ezber, Yasemin, García-Bustamante, Elena, González-Rouco, J. Fidel, Navarro, Jorge, Sastre-Marugán, Mariano, Sīle, Tija, Trei, Wilke, Žagar, Mark, Badger, Jake, Gottschall, Julia, Sanz Rodrigo, Javier, and Mann, Jakob
- Abstract
This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). In Part 1, we described the sensitivity experiments and accompanying evaluation done to arrive at the final mesoscale model setup used to produce the mesoscale wind atlas. In this paper, Part 2, we document how we made the final wind atlas product, covering both the production of the mesoscale climatology generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the microscale climatology generated with the Wind Atlas Analysis and Applications Program (WAsP). The paper includes a detailed description of the technical and practical aspects that went into running the mesoscale simulations and the downscaling using WAsP. We show the main results from the final wind atlas and present a comprehensive evaluation of each component of the NEWA model chain using observations from a large set of tall masts located all over Europe. The added value of the WRF and WAsP downscaling of wind climatologies is evaluated relative to the performance of the driving ERA5 reanalysis and shows that the WRF downscaling reduces the mean wind speed bias and spread relative to that of ERA5 from -1.50±1.30 to 0.02±0.78 m s−1. The WAsP downscaling has an added positive impact relative to that of the WRF model in simple terrain. In complex terrain, where the assumptions of the linearized flow model break down, both the mean bias and spread in wind speed are worse than those from the raw mesoscale results.
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- 2020
7. The making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 1: Model sensitivity
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Hahmann, Andrea N., Sīle, Tija, Witha, Björn, Davis, Neil N., Dörenkämper, Martin, Ezber, Yasemin, García-Bustamante, Elena, González-Rouco, J. Fidel, Navarro, Jorge, Olsen, Bjarke T., Söderberg, Stefan, Hahmann, Andrea N., Sīle, Tija, Witha, Björn, Davis, Neil N., Dörenkämper, Martin, Ezber, Yasemin, García-Bustamante, Elena, González-Rouco, J. Fidel, Navarro, Jorge, Olsen, Bjarke T., and Söderberg, Stefan
- Abstract
This is the first of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). It describes the sensitivity analysis and evaluation procedures that formed the basis for choosing the final setup of the mesoscale model simulations of the wind atlas. The suitable combination of model setup and parameterizations, bound by practical constraints, was found for simulating the climatology of the wind field at turbine-relevant heights with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial WRF model sensitivity experiments compared the wind climate generated by using two commonly used planetary boundary layer schemes and were carried out over several regions in Europe. They confirmed that the most significant differences in annual mean wind speed at 100 m a.g.l. (above ground level) mostly coincide with areas of high surface roughness length and not with the location of the domains or maximum wind speed. Then an ensemble of more than 50 simulations with different setups for a single year was carried out for one domain covering northern Europe for which tall mast observations were available. We varied many different parameters across the simulations, e.g. model version, forcing data, various physical parameterizations, and the size of the model domain. These simulations showed that although virtually every parameter change affects the results in some way, significant changes in the wind climate in the boundary layer are mostly due to using different physical parameterizations, especially the planetary boundary layer scheme, the representation of the land surface, and the prescribed surface roughness length. Also, the setup of the simulations, such as the integration length and the domain size, can considerably influence the results. We assessed the degree of similarity between winds simulated by the WRF ensemble members and the observations using a suite of metrics, including the Earth Mover's Distance (EMD), a statistic that measures the distance
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- 2020
8. The making of the New European Wind Atlas ¿ Part 1: Model sensitivity
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European Commission, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Danish Energy Agency, Söderberg, Stefan, Witha, Björn, Olsen, Bjarke T., Davis, Neil N., Hahmann, Andrea N., Dörenkämpe, Martin, Sile, Tija, Ezber, Yasemin, García-Bustamante, Elena, González-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, Jorge, European Commission, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Danish Energy Agency, Söderberg, Stefan, Witha, Björn, Olsen, Bjarke T., Davis, Neil N., Hahmann, Andrea N., Dörenkämpe, Martin, Sile, Tija, Ezber, Yasemin, García-Bustamante, Elena, González-Rouco, J. F., and Navarro, Jorge
- Abstract
This is the first of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). It describes the sensitivity analysis and evaluation procedures that formed the basis for choosing the final setup of the mesoscale model simulations of the wind atlas. The suitable combination of model setup and parameterizations, bound by practical constraints, was found for simulating the climatology of the wind field at turbine-relevant heights with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial WRF model sensitivity experiments compared the wind climate generated by using two commonly used planetary boundary layer schemes and were carried out over several regions in Europe. They confirmed that the most significant differences in annual mean wind speed at 100 m a.g.l. (above ground level) mostly coincide with areas of high surface roughness length and not with the location of the domains or maximum wind speed. Then an ensemble of more than 50 simulations with different setups for a single year was carried out for one domain covering northern Europe for which tall mast observations were available. We varied many different parameters across the simulations, e.g. model version, forcing data, various physical parameterizations, and the size of the model domain. These simulations showed that although virtually every parameter change affects the results in some way, significant changes in the wind climate in the boundary layer are mostly due to using different physical parameterizations, especially the planetary boundary layer scheme, the representation of the land surface, and the prescribed surface roughness length. Also, the setup of the simulations, such as the integration length and the domain size, can considerably influence the results. We assessed the degree of similarity between winds simulated by the WRF ensemble members and the observations using a suite of metrics, including the Earth Mover¿s Distance (EMD), a statistic that measures the distance be
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- 2020
9. The making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 1: Model sensitivity
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Hahmann, Andrea N., primary, Sīle, Tija, additional, Witha, Björn, additional, Davis, Neil N., additional, Dörenkämper, Martin, additional, Ezber, Yasemin, additional, García-Bustamante, Elena, additional, González-Rouco, J. Fidel, additional, Navarro, Jorge, additional, Olsen, Bjarke T., additional, and Söderberg, Stefan, additional
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- 2020
- Full Text
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10. The Making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 2: Production and evaluation
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Dörenkämper, Martin, primary, Olsen, Bjarke T., additional, Witha, Björn, additional, Hahmann, Andrea N., additional, Davis, Neil N., additional, Barcons, Jordi, additional, Ezber, Yasemin, additional, García-Bustamante, Elena, additional, González-Rouco, J. Fidel, additional, Navarro, Jorge, additional, Sastre-Marugán, Mariano, additional, Sīle, Tija, additional, Trei, Wilke, additional, Žagar, Mark, additional, Badger, Jake, additional, Gottschall, Julia, additional, Sanz Rodrigo, Javier, additional, and Mann, Jakob, additional
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- 2020
- Full Text
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11. Associations between ozone and morbidity using the Spatial Synoptic Classification system
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Arora Gurmeet, Talgo Kevin D, Davis Neil N, Smith Richard L, Zhu Zhengyuan, Xiu Aijun, Yeatts Karin B, Hanna Adel F, Robinson Peter J, Meng Qingyu, and Pinto Joseph P
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Industrial medicine. Industrial hygiene ,RC963-969 ,Public aspects of medicine ,RA1-1270 - Abstract
Abstract Background Synoptic circulation patterns (large-scale tropospheric motion systems) affect air pollution and, potentially, air-pollution-morbidity associations. We evaluated the effect of synoptic circulation patterns (air masses) on the association between ozone and hospital admissions for asthma and myocardial infarction (MI) among adults in North Carolina. Methods Daily surface meteorology data (including precipitation, wind speed, and dew point) for five selected cities in North Carolina were obtained from the U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS), which were in turn based on data from the National Climatic Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We used the Spatial Synoptic Classification system to classify each day of the 9-year period from 1996 through 2004 into one of seven different air mass types: dry polar, dry moderate, dry tropical, moist polar, moist moderate, moist tropical, or transitional. Daily 24-hour maximum 1-hour ambient concentrations of ozone were obtained from the AQS. Asthma and MI hospital admissions data for the 9-year period were obtained from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. Generalized linear models were used to assess the association of the hospitalizations with ozone concentrations and specific air mass types, using pollutant lags of 0 to 5 days. We examined the effect across cities on days with the same air mass type. In all models we adjusted for dew point and day-of-the-week effects related to hospital admissions. Results Ozone was associated with asthma under dry tropical (1- to 5-day lags), transitional (3- and 4-day lags), and extreme moist tropical (0-day lag) air masses. Ozone was associated with MI only under the extreme moist tropical (5-day lag) air masses. Conclusions Elevated ozone levels are associated with dry tropical, dry moderate, and moist tropical air masses, with the highest ozone levels being associated with the dry tropical air mass. Certain synoptic circulation patterns/air masses in conjunction with ambient ozone levels were associated with increased asthma and MI hospitalizations.
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- 2011
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12. Associations between Ozone and Morbidity Using the Spatial Synoptic Classification System
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Davis, Neil N, Yeatts, Karin, Talgo, Kevin D, Smith, Richard L., Hanna, Adel, Xiu, Aijun, and Robinson, Peter J.
- Abstract
Background Synoptic circulation patterns (large-scale tropospheric motion systems) affect air pollution and, potentially, air-pollution-morbidity associations. We evaluated the effect of synoptic circulation patterns (air masses) on the association between ozone and hospital admissions for asthma and myocardial infarction (MI) among adults in North Carolina. Methods Daily surface meteorology data (including precipitation, wind speed, and dew point) for five selected cities in North Carolina were obtained from the U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS), which were in turn based on data from the National Climatic Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We used the Spatial Synoptic Classification system to classify each day of the 9-year period from 1996 through 2004 into one of seven different air mass types: dry polar, dry moderate, dry tropical, moist polar, moist moderate, moist tropical, or transitional. Daily 24-hour maximum 1-hour ambient concentrations of ozone were obtained from the AQS. Asthma and MI hospital admissions data for the 9-year period were obtained from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. Generalized linear models were used to assess the association of the hospitalizations with ozone concentrations and specific air mass types, using pollutant lags of 0 to 5 days. We examined the effect across cities on days with the same air mass type. In all models we adjusted for dew point and day-of-the-week effects related to hospital admissions. Results Ozone was associated with asthma under dry tropical (1- to 5-day lags), transitional (3- and 4-day lags), and extreme moist tropical (0-day lag) air masses. Ozone was associated with MI only under the extreme moist tropical (5-day lag) air masses. Conclusions Elevated ozone levels are associated with dry tropical, dry moderate, and moist tropical air masses, with the highest ozone levels being associated with the dry tropical air mass. Certain synoptic circulation patterns/air masses in conjunction with ambient ozone levels were associated with increased asthma and MI hospitalizations.
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- 2011
- Full Text
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13. Identifying and characterizing the impact of turbine icing on wind farm power generation
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Davis, Neil N., primary, Pinson, Pierre, additional, Hahmann, Andrea N., additional, Clausen, Niels‐Erik, additional, and Žagar, Mark, additional
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- 2015
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14. Ice detection on wind turbines using the observed power curve
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Davis, Neil N., primary, Byrkjedal, Øyvind, additional, Hahmann, Andrea N., additional, Clausen, Niels‐Erik, additional, and Žagar, Mark, additional
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- 2015
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15. Identifying and characterizing the impact of turbine icing on wind farm power generation.
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Davis, Neil N., Pinson, Pierre, Hahmann, Andrea N., Clausen, Niels‐Erik, and Žagar, Mark
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WIND turbines & the environment ,WIND power plants ,ELECTRIC power production ,ICING (Meteorology) ,PREDICTION models - Abstract
Wind park power production in cold climate regions is significantly impacted by ice growth on turbine blades. This can lead to significant errors in power forecasts and in the estimation of expected power production during turbine siting. A modeling system is presented that uses a statistical modeling approach to estimate the power loss due to icing, using inputs from both a physical icing and a numerical weather prediction model. The physical icing model is that of Davis et al., with updates to the simulation of ice ablation. A new approach for identifying periods of turbine blade icing from power observations was developed and used to calculate the observed power loss caused by icing. The observed icing power loss for 2years at six wind parks was used to validate the modeling system performance. Production estimates using the final production loss model reduce the root mean squared error when compared with the empirical wind park power curve (without icing influence) at five of the six wind parks while reducing the mean bias at all six wind parks. In addition to performing well when fit to each wind park, the production loss model was shown to improve the estimate of power when fit using all six wind parks, suggesting it may also be useful for wind parks where production data are not available. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2016
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16. Ice detection on wind turbines using the observed power curve.
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Davis, Neil N., Byrkjedal, Øyvind, Hahmann, Andrea N., Clausen, Niels‐Erik, and Žagar, Mark
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WIND turbines ,WIND power research ,RENEWABLE energy source research ,WIND turbine blades ,TURBINE blades - Abstract
Icing on the blades of a wind turbine can lead to significant production losses during the winter months for wind parks in cold climate regions. However, there is no standard way of identifying ice-induced power loss. This paper describes three methods for creating power threshold curves that can be used to separate iced production periods from non-iced production periods. The first approach relies on a percentage deviation from the manufacturer's power curve. The other two approaches fit threshold curves based on the observed variance of non-iced production data. These approaches are applied to turbines in four wind parks and compared with each other and to observations of icing on the nacelle of one of the turbines in each park. It is found that setting an ice threshold curve using 0.1 quantile of the observed power data during normal operation with a 2-h minimum duration is the best approach for icing identification. The quantile should be fit based on at least 1year of data, and a smoothing function should be applied to the quantile results to remove any outliers caused by limited numbers of data points. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2016
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17. Associations between ozone and morbidity using the Spatial Synoptic Classification system
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Hanna, Adel F, primary, Yeatts, Karin B, additional, Xiu, Aijun, additional, Zhu, Zhengyuan, additional, Smith, Richard L, additional, Davis, Neil N, additional, Talgo, Kevin D, additional, Arora, Gurmeet, additional, Robinson, Peter J, additional, Meng, Qingyu, additional, and Pinto, Joseph P, additional
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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