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The effect of the Earth’s ionosphere represents the single largest contribution to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) error budget and abnormal ionospheric conditions can impose serious degradation on GNSS system functionality, including integrity, accuracy and availability. With the growing reliance on GNSS for many modern life applications, actionable ionospheric forecasts can contribute to the understanding and mitigation of the impact of the ionosphere on our technology based society. In this context, the Ionosphere Prediction Service (IPS) project was set up to design and develop a prototype platform to translate the forecast of the ionospheric effects into a service customized for specific GNSS user communities. To achieve this overarching aim, four different product groups dealing with solar activity, ionospheric activity, GNSS receiver performance and service performance have been developed and integrated into a service chain, which is made available through a web based platform. This paper provides an overview of the IPS project describing its overall architecture, products and web based platform.

We introduce a novel empirical model to forecast, 24 h in advance, the Total Electron Content (TEC) at global scale. The technique leverages on the Global Ionospheric Map (GIM), provided by the International GNSS Service (IGS), and applies a nonlinear autoregressive neural network with external input (NARX) to selected GIM grid points for the 24 h single-point TEC forecasting, taking into account the actual and forecasted geomagnetic conditions. To extend the forecasting at a global scale, the technique makes use of the NeQuick2 Model fed by an effective sunspot number R12 (R12eff), estimated by minimizing the root mean square error (RMSE) between NARX output and NeQuick2 applied at the same GIM grid points. The novel approach is able to reproduce the features of the ionosphere especially during disturbed periods. The performance of the forecasting approach is extensively tested under different geospatial conditions, against both TEC maps products by UPC (Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya) and independent TEC data from Jason-3 spacecraft. The testing results are very satisfactory in terms of RMSE, as it has been found to range between 3 and 5 TECu. RMSE depend on the latitude sectors, time of the day, geomagnetic conditions, and provide a statistical estimation of the accuracy of the 24-h forecasting technique even over the oceans. The validation of the forecasting during five geomagnetic storms reveals that the model performance is not deteriorated during disturbed periods. This 24-h empirical approach is currently implemented on the Ionosphere Prediction Service (IPS), a prototype platform to support different classes of GNSS users.

This work presents a contribution to the understanding of the ionospheric triggering of L-band scintillation in the region over São Paulo state in Brazil, under high solar activity. In particular, a climatological analysis of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) data acquired in 2012 is presented to highlight the relationship between intensity and variability of the total electron content (TEC) gradients and the occurrence of ionospheric scintillation. The analysis is based on the GNSS data acquired by a dense distribution of receivers and exploits the integration of a dedicated TEC calibration technique into the Ground Based Scintillation Climatology (GBSC), previously developed at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. Such integration enables representing the local ionospheric features through climatological maps of calibrated TEC and TEC gradients and of amplitude scintillation occurrence. The disentanglement of the contribution to the TEC variations due to zonal and meridional gradients conveys insight into the relation between the scintillation occurrence and the morphology of the TEC variability. The importance of the information provided by the TEC gradients variability and the role of the meridional TEC gradients in driving scintillation are critically described.

The paper reviews the current state of GNSS-based detection, monitoring and forecasting of ionospheric perturbations in Europe in relation to the COST action ES0803 “Developing Space Weather Products and Services in Europe”. Space weather research and related ionospheric studies require broad international collaboration in sharing databases, developing analysis software and models and providing services. Reviewed is the European GNSS data basis including ionospheric services providing derived data products such as the Total Electron Content (TEC) and radio scintillation indices. Fundamental ionospheric perturbation phenomena covering quite different scales in time and space are discussed in the light of recent achievements in GNSS-based ionospheric monitoring. Thus, large-scale perturbation processes characterized by moving ionization fronts, wave-like travelling ionospheric disturbances and finally small-scale irregularities causing radio scintillations are considered. Whereas ground and space-based GNSS monitoring techniques are well developed, forecasting of ionospheric perturbations needs much more work to become attractive for users who might be interested in condensed information on the perturbation degree of the ionosphere by robust indices. Finally, we have briefly presented a few samples illustrating the space weather impact on GNSS applications thus encouraging the scientific community to enhance space weather research in upcoming years.

Scintillations are rapid fluctuations in the phase and amplitude of transionospheric radio signals which are caused by small-scale plasma density irregularities in the ionosphere. In the case of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, scintillation can cause cycle slips, degrade the positioning accuracy and, when severe enough, can even lead to a complete loss of signal lock. Thus, the required levels of availability, accuracy, integrity and reliability for the GNSS applications may not be met during scintillation occurrence; this poses a major threat to a large number of modern-day GNSS-based applications. The whole of Latin America, Brazil in particular, is located in one of the regions most affected by scintillations. These effects will be exacerbated during solar maxima, the next predicted for 2013. This paper presents initial results from a research work aimed to tackle ionospheric scintillation effects for GNSS users in Latin America. This research is a part of the CIGALA (Concept for Ionospheric Scintillation Mitigation for Professional GNSS in Latin America) project, co-funded by the EC Seventh Framework Program and supervised by the GNSS Supervisory Authority (GSA), which aims to develop and test ionospheric scintillation countermeasures to be implemented in multi-frequency, multi-constellation GNSS receivers.

Geosystemics (De Santis 2009, 2014) studies the Earth system as a whole focusing on the possible coupling among the Earth layers (the so called geo-layers), and using universal tools to integrate different methods that can be applied to multi-parameter data, often taken on different platforms. Its main objective is to understand the particular phenomenon of interest from a holistic point of view. In this paper we will deal with earthquakes, considered as a long term chain of processes involving, not only the interaction between different components of the Earth's interior, but also the coupling of the solid earth with the above neutral and ionized atmosphere, and finally culminating with the main rupture along the fault of concern (De Santis et al., 2015a). Some case studies (particular emphasis is given to recent central Italy earthquakes) will be discussed in the frame of the geosystemic approach for better understanding the physics of the underlying complex dynamical system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents an unprecedented description of the climatology of ionospheric irregularities scintillations over the Arctic derived from the longest Global Navigation Satellite Systems data series ever collected for this specific aim. Two TEC and scintillation receivers are working at Ny Ålesund (Svalbard, NO), the first of which has been installed in late September 2003. They sample the L1 and L2 signals at 50 Hz from all the GPS satellites in view. The receivers monitor an area of about 600 km radius that includes the auroral and the cap regions in the European longitudinal sector. The exceptional length of the data series and the privilege site of observation allows describing the Arctic ionosphere along about two solar cycles, from the descending phase of cycle 23 to almost the end of cycle 24. During this long period, some major scintillation events registered at Svalbard have been selected to characterize the space weather effects on the propagation of GNSS signals into the ionosphere. Our analysis results into a detailed assessment of the long-term behaviour of the ionosphere under solar maximum and solar minimum conditions, including several periods of perturbed ionospheric weather caused by unfavourable helio-geophysical conditions. The description obtained after the analysis has been translated into a tool capable to provide a regional forecasting of the scintillation indices 24 hours in advance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]