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The roles played by the large-scale motion induced by vertical diffusion of heat from the lower boundary and condensational healing due to deep convection in maintaining the precipitation zones in the Tropics of an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) are explored. A steady linearized version of the GCM is used to diagnose the wind forced by these processes. The wind field obtained from the linear model is combined with the time-mean moisture field from the GCM in order to determine the zonally asymmetric moisture flux convergence, which is the primary factor maintaining the zonally asymmetric precipitation distribution. The role of the other diabatic heating processes is explored as is the role of the orographic forcing in maintaining the precipitation distribution. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence forced by vertical diffusion of heat and condensational heating are found to be in phase over the ocean and 180 degrees out of phase over the land. Over the ocean, both of these forcings contribute to moisture flux convergence in the regions of largest precipitation. The moisture flux convergence forced by the vertical diffusion of heat tends to narrow the precipitation zones in the meridional direction over the ocean. Over the land, the condensational heating leads to moisture flux convergence in the regions of large precipitation, while the vertical diffusion of heat leads to moisture flux divergence. This indicates that the motions forced by the surface temperature provide a negative feedback on the precipitation. This feedback is apparently due to the relatively cool surface temperatures present in the regions of large precipitation over land. This locally cool surface temperature leads to a low-level divergent circulation from the cool region to warmer regions. Other forcing functions are found to play a minor role in the moisture flux convergence by the time-mean flow with the exception of the orographic forcing in some regions. The lowest model sigma-level wind field over the tropical Pacific Ocean is examined. In general both the zonal and meridional wind fields are dominated by the response to convective condensational heating. Exceptions include the meridional wind in the western Pacific and the zonal wind along the equator. In these regions, the response to low-level temperature gradients is found to be nonnegligible in comparison with the response to convective condensational heating. The role of the orographic forcing is also significant along the coasts of the tropical continents and in the western Pacific.

ABSTRACT Seasonal climate forecasts are operationally produced at various climate prediction centres around the world. However, these forecasts may not necessarily be appropriately integrated into application models in order to help with decision-making processes. This study investigates the use of a combination of physical and empirical models to predict seasonal inflows into Lake Kariba in southern Africa. Two predictions systems are considered. The first uses antecedent seasonal rainfall totals over the upper Zambezi catchment as predictor in a statistical model for estimating seasonal inflows into Lake Kariba. The second and more sophisticated method uses predicted low-level atmospheric circulation of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model ( CGCM) downscaled to the inflows. Forecast verification results are presented for five run-on 3-month seasons; from September to June over an independent hindcast period of 14 years (1995/1996 to 2008/2009). Verification is conducted using the relative operating characteristic ( ROC) and the reliability diagram. In addition to the presented verification statistics, the hindcasts are also evaluated in terms of their economic value as a usefulness indicator of forecast quality for bureaucrats and to the general public. The models in general perform best during the austral mid-summer season of DJF (seasonal onset of inflows) and the autumn season of MAM (main inflow season). Moreover, the prediction system that uses the output of the CGCM is superior to the simple statistical approach. An additional forecast of a recent flooding event (2010/2011), which lies outside of the 14-year verification window, is presented to demonstrate the forecast system's operational capability further during a season of high inflows that caused societal and infrastructure problems over the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines skill of retrospective forecasts using the ECHAM4.5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with predicted sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from methods of varying complexity. The SST fields are predicted in three ways: persisted observed SST anomalies, empirically predicted SSTs, and predicted SSTs from a dynamically coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Investigation of relative skill of the three sets of retrospective forecasts focuses on the ensemble mean, which constitutes the portion of the model response attributable to the prescribed boundary conditions. The anomaly correlation skill analyses for precipitation and 2-m air temperature indicate that dynamically predicted SSTs generally improve upon persisted and empirically predicted SSTs when they are used as boundary forcing in the AGCM predictions. This is particularly the case for precipitation forecasts. The skill differences in these experiments are ascribed to the skill of SST predictions in the tropical ocean basins. The multiscenario forecast by averaging the three retrospective experiments performs, overall, as well as or better than the best of the three individual experiments in specific seasons and regions. The advantage of multiscenario forecast manifests both in the deterministic and probabilistic skill. In particular, the multiscenario precipitation forecast for the December–February season demonstrates better skill than the best of the three scenarios over several regions, such as the western United States and southeastern South America. These results suggest the potential value in producing superensembles spanning different SST prediction scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been observed to exhibit decadal changes in its properties; the cause and implication of such changes are strongly debated. Here the authors examine the influences of two particular attributors of the ocean–atmospheric system. The roles of stochastic forcing (SF) in the atmosphere and decadal changes in the temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer (Te) in modulating ENSO are compared to one another using coupled ocean–atmosphere models of the tropical Pacific climate system. Two types of coupled models are used. One is an intermediate coupled model (ICM) and another is a hybrid coupled model (HCM), both of which consist of the same intermediate ocean model (IOM) with an empirical parameterization for Te, constructed via singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the IOM simulated historical data. The differences in the ICM and HCM are in the atmospheric component: the one in the ICM is an empirical feedback model for wind stress (τ), and that in the HCM is an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM; ECHAM4.5). The deterministic component of atmospheric τ variability, representing its signal response (τSig) to an external SST forcing, is constructed statistically by an SVD analysis from a 24-member ensemble mean of the ECHAM4.5 AGCM simulations forced by observed SST; the SF component (τSF) is explicitly estimated from the ECHAM4.5 AGCM ensemble and HCM simulations. Different SF representations are specified in the atmosphere: the SF effect can be either absent or present explicitly in the ICM, or implicitly in the HCM where the ECHAM4.5 AGCM is used as a source for SF. Decadal changes in the ocean thermal structure observed in the late 1970s are incorporated into the coupled systems through the Te parameterizations for the two subperiods before (1963–79) and after (1980–96) the climate shift (T63–79e and T80–96e), respectively. The ICM and HCM simulations well reproduce interannual variability associated with El Niño in the tropical Pacific. Model sensitivity experiments are performed using these two types of coupled models with different realizations of SF in the atmosphere and specifications of decadal Te changes in the ocean. It is demonstrated that the properties of ENSO are modulated differently by these two factors. The decadal Te changes in the ocean can be responsible for a systematic shift in the phase propagation of ENSO, while the SF in the atmosphere can contribute to the amplitude and period modulation in a random way. The relevance to the observed decadal ENSO variability in the late 1970s is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]