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Introduction Verbal autopsy (VA) methods have emerged to estimate causes of death in populations lacking robust civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. Despite World Health Organization endorsement of routine VA use, cost and efficiency concerns persist. Telephonic verbal autopsies (teleVAs) can reduce cost. Physician coding offers a valuable approach, but the expertise required makes it resource-intensive, often involving multiple coders for consensus. Objective To assess inter-coder agreement for cause of death (CoD) in South African teleVAs using Kappa statistics, evaluating if agreement surpasses a 0.8 cut-off (very high) potentially allowing single coders. Methods A cross-sectional study employed telephonic VA interviews on non-facility deaths in Cape Town (December 2020–September 2021). Trained fieldworkers administered a standard VA questionnaire. Each case's VA responses were reviewed independently by two physicians, medically certifying the CoD. A panel was used to solve disagreements. Cohen’s kappa-statistic ( k -statistic) tested agreement levels. Results Decedents were aged between 18 and 98 years. In total, 228 teleVAs (16.6% response rate) were conducted. Physician coding agreement was good overall ( k -statistic: 0.63). Diabetes mellitus (47%) and other non-communicable disease (42%) had initial agreement between physician coders in less than 50% of cases in comparison to consensus totals. COVID-19 (89%) and acute cardiac disease (83%) showed initial agreement in more than 80% of cases compared to consensus totals. A chi-square test revealed a significant difference in the number of causes listed on death notification forms for cases with and without agreement in Part 1 (χ 2 = 14.71, p

Abstract Introduction Despite the numerous efforts and initiatives, males with HIV are still less likely than women to receive HIV treatment. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, men are tested, linked, and retained in HIV care at lower rates than women, and South Africa is no exception. This is despite the introduction of the universal test-and-treat (UTT) prevention strategy anticipated to improve the uptake of HIV services. The aim of this study was to investigate linkage to and retention in care rates of an HIV-positive cohort of men in a high HIV prevalence rural district in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Methods From January 2018 to July 2019, we conducted an observational cohort study in 18 primary health care institutions in the uThukela district. Patient-level survey and clinical data were collected at baseline, 4-months and 12-months, using isiZulu and English REDCap-based questionnaires. We verified data through TIER.Net, Rapid mortality survey (RMS), and the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) databases. Data were analyzed using STATA version 15.1, with confidence intervals and p-value of ≤0.05 considered statistically significant. Results The study sample consisted of 343 male participants diagnosed with HIV and who reside in uThukela District. The median age was 33 years (interquartile range (IQR): 29–40), and more than half (56%; n = 193) were aged 18–34 years. Almost all participants (99.7%; n = 342) were Black African, with 84.5% (n = 290) being in a romantic relationship. The majority of participants (85%; n = 292) were linked to care within three months of follow-up. Short-term retention in care (≤ 12 months) was 46% (n = 132) among men who were linked to care within three months. Conclusion While the implementation of the UTT strategy has had positive influence on improving linkage to care, men’s access of HIV treatment remains inconsistent and may require additional innovative strategies.

Background Verbal autopsy (VA), though imperfect, serves as a vital tool to determine cause-of-death, particularly for out-of-facility deaths, but challenges persist in integrating VA into Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems. Objective To describe the challenges and successes of collecting a national sample of verbal autopsy interviews in South Africa to obtain the cause of death profile in 2017/18. Methods We recruited next of kin from 27 randomly selected sub-districts (10.5%) across South Africa between September 2017 and April 2018. Trained fieldworkers conducted face-to-face interviews using the WHO2016 VA instrument, with physicians certifying underlying causes of death. Feasibility was evaluated based on response rates, participation, and data quality. Results Of the total 36,976 deaths registered, only 26% were identified during recruitment, with a 55% overall response rate for VA interviews. Physician-reviewed VA data were deemed of good quality for assigning underlying causes of death in 83% of cases. By comparing cause-specific mortality fractions, physician-reviewed VA identified 22.3% HIV/AIDS and InterVA-5 identified 18.5%, aligning with burden of disease estimates, while Statistics South Africa reported 4.9% HIV/AIDS. Conclusions The study demonstrated the feasibility of using VA on a national scale, but immense challenges in identifying and recruiting next of kin highlight the importance of formalising VAs within the country’s death notification system.

Background Injuries, often preventable, prompted urgent action within the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to improve global health. South Africa (SA) has high rates of injury mortality, but accurate reporting of official national data is hindered by death misclassification. Objective Two nationally representative surveys for 2009 and 2017 are utilised to assess SA’s progress towards SDG targets for violence and road traffic injuries, alongside changes in suicide and under-5 mortality rates for childhood injuries, and compare these estimates with those of the Global Burden of Disease for SA. Methods The surveys utilised multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling from eight provinces, with mortuaries as primary sampling units. Post-mortem files for non-natural deaths were reviewed, with additional data from the Western Cape. Age-standardised rates, 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated for manner of death rate comparisons and for age groups. Results The all-injury age-standardised mortality rate decreased significantly between 2009 and 2017. Homicide and transport remained the leading causes of injury deaths, with a significant 31% decrease in road traffic mortality (IRR = 0.69), from 36.1 to 25.0 per 100 000 population. Conclusions Despite a reduction in SA’s road traffic mortality rate, challenges to achieve targets related to young and novice drivers and male homicide persist. Achieving SA’s injury mortality SDG targets requires comprehensive evaluations of programmes addressing road safety, violence reduction, and mental well-being. In the absence of reliable routine data, survey data allow to accurately assess the country’s SDG progress through commitment to evidence-based policymaking.

Abstract Ending AIDS by 2030 would depend on how successful health systems are in linking people living with HIV (PLHIV) into care. The World Health Organization recommended the ‘Universal Test and Treat’ (UTT) strategy – initiating all individuals testing positive on antiretroviral therapy (ART) irrespective of their CD4 count and clinical staging. This study aimed to explore the enablers and barriers to linkage to HIV care among adults with a new HIV diagnosis in a high-HIV prevalent rural district in South Africa. A qualitative study was undertaken to explore patients’ perceptions of enablers and barriers of linkage-to-care, using a life-story narration and dialogue approach. In-depth interviews were conducted with 38 HIV-positive participants sampled from a cohort of 1194 HIV-positive patients recruited from December 2017 to June 2018. Participants were selected based on whether they had been linked to care or not within 3 months of positive HIV diagnosis. Interviews were thematically analysed using a general inductive approach. Of the 38 participants, 22 (58%) linked to care within three months of HIV-positive diagnosis. Factors that facilitated or inhibited linkage-to-care were found at individual, family, community, as well as health systems levels. Enablers included a positive HIV testing experience, and assistance from the fieldwork team. Support from family, and friends, as well as prior community-based education about HIV and ART were also noted. Individual factors such as acceptance of HIV status, previous exposure to PLHIV, and fear of HIV progressing, were identified. Barriers to linkage included, denial of HIV status, dislike of taking pills, and preference for alternative medicine. Negative experiences with counselling and health systems inefficiency were also noted as barriers. Perceived stigma and socio-economic factors, such as lack of food or money to visit the clinic were other barriers. Community-based and health system-level interventions would need to focus on clinic readiness in providing patients with necessary and effective health services such as proper and adequate counselling. This could increase the number of patients who link to care. Finally, interventions to improve linkage-to-care should consider a holistic approach, including training healthcare providers, community outreach and the provision of psychological, social, and financial support.

Background The South African national cause of death validation (NCODV 2017/18) project collected a national sample of verbal autopsies (VA) with cause of death (COD) assignment by physician-coded VA (PCVA) and computer-coded VA (CCVA). Objective The performance of three CCVA algorithms (InterVA-5, InSilicoVA and Tariff 2.0) in assigning a COD was compared with PCVA (reference standard). Methods Seven performance metrics assessed individual and population level agreement of COD assignment by age, sex and place of death subgroups. Positive predictive value (PPV), sensitivity, overall agreement, kappa, and chance corrected concordance (CCC) assessed individual level agreement. Cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy and Spearman’s rank correlation assessed population level agreement. Results A total of 5386 VA records were analysed. PCVA and CCVAs all identified HIV/AIDS as the leading COD. CCVA PPV and sensitivity, based on confidence intervals, were comparable except for HIV/AIDS, TB, maternal, diabetes mellitus, other cancers, and some injuries. CCVAs performed well for identifying perinatal deaths, road traffic accidents, suicide and homicide but poorly for pneumonia, other infectious diseases and renal failure. Overall agreement between CCVAs and PCVA for the top single cause (48.2–51.6) indicated comparable weak agreement between methods. Overall agreement, for the top three causes showed moderate agreement for InterVA (70.9) and InSilicoVA (73.8). Agreement based on kappa (−0.05–0.49)and CCC (0.06–0.43) was weak to none for all algorithms and groups. CCVAs had moderate to strong agreement for CSMF accuracy, with InterVA-5 highest for neonates (0.90), Tariff 2.0 highest for adults (0.89) and males (0.84), and InSilicoVA highest for females (0.88), elders (0.83) and out-of-facility deaths (0.85). Rank correlation indicated moderate agreement for adults (0.75–0.79). Conclusions Whilst CCVAs identified HIV/AIDS as the leading COD, consistent with PCVA, there is scope for improving the algorithms for use in South Africa.

Abstract Background South Africa had an estimated 7.5 million people living with HIV (PLHIV), accounting for approximately 20% of the 38.4 million PLHIV globally in 2021. In 2015, the World Health Organization recommended the universal test and treat (UTT) intervention which was implemented in South Africa in September 2016. Evidence shows that UTT implementation faces challenges in terms of human resources capacity or infrastructure. We aim to explore healthcare providers (HCPs)’ perspectives on the implementation of the UTT strategy in uThukela District Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal province. Methods A qualitative study was conducted with one hundred and sixty-one (161) healthcare providers (HCPs) within 18 healthcare facilities in three subdistricts, comprising of Managers, Nurses, and Lay workers. HCPs were interviewed using an open ended-survey questions to explore their perceptions providing HIV care under the UTT strategy. All interviews were thematically analysed using both inductive and deductive approaches. Results Of the 161 participants (142 female and 19 male), 158 (98%) worked at the facility level, of which 82 (51%) were nurses, and 20 (12.5%) were managers (facility managers and PHC manager/supervisors). Despite a general acceptance of the UTT policy implementation, HCPs expressed challenges such as increased patient defaulter rates, increased work overload, caused by the increased number of service users, and physiological and psychological impacts. The surge in the workload under conditions of inadequate systems’ capacity and human resources, gave rise to a greater burden on HCPs in this study. However, increased life expectancy, good quality of life, and immediate treatment initiation were identified as perceived positive outcomes of UTT on service users. Perceived influence of UTT on the health system included, increased number of patients initiated, decreased burden on the system, meeting the 90-90-90 targets, and financial aspects. Conclusion Health system strengthening such as providing more systems’ capacity for expected increase in workload, proper training and retraining of HCPs with new policies in the management of patient readiness for lifelong ART journey, and ensuring availability of medicines, may reduce strain on HCPs, thus improving the delivery of the comprehensive UTT services to PLHIV.

Abstract Background In populations with high rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-coinfection, the nature of the relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV)-16 and -18 (L1, E6 and E7) antibodies and cervical cancer is still uncertain. We measured the association between seropositivity to HPV (L1, E6 and E7) proteins and cervical cancer among black South African women with and without HIV co-infection. Methods We used questionnaire data and serum collected from consecutively recruited patients with a newly diagnosed cancer from the Johannesburg Cancer Study from 1346 cervical cancer cases and 2532 controls (diagnosed with other non-infection related cancers). Seropositivity to HPV proteins was measured using a multiplex serological assay based on recombinant glutathione S-transferase (GST) fusion proteins. We measured associations between their presence and cervical cancer using unconditional logistic regression models and evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of these HPV biomarkers. Results Among controls, HIV-negative women from rural areas compared to urban had significantly higher HPV seroprevalence, HPV16 E7 (8.6% vs 3.7%) and HPV18 E7 (7.9% vs 2.0%). HPV16 E6 and E7 antibodies were positively associated with cervical cancer in HIV-positive (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 33; 95% CI 10–107) and HIV-negative women (AOR = 97; 95% CI 46–203). In HIV-positive women, HPV E6/E7 antibodies had low sensitivity (43.0%) and high specificity (90.6%) for cervical cancer detection. In HIV-negative women, HPV E6/E7 antibodies sensitivity was 70.6% and specificity was 89.7%. Conclusions Our data show that HPV (L1, especially E6 and E7) antibody positivity is associated with cervical cancer in both HIV-positive and HIV-negative women. Nonetheless, being HIV-positive plays an important role in the development of cervical cancer.

Abstract Background Alcohol use has widespread effects on health and contributes to over 200 detrimental conditions. Although the pattern of heavy episodic drinking independently increases the risk for injuries and transmission of some infectious diseases, long-term average consumption is the fundamental predictor of risk for most conditions. Population surveys, which are the main source of data on alcohol exposure, suffer from bias and uncertainty. This article proposes a novel triangulation method to reduce bias by rescaling consumption estimates by sex and age to match country-level consumption from administrative data. Methods We used data from 17 population surveys to estimate age- and sex-specific trends in alcohol consumption in the adult population of South Africa between 1998 and 2016. Independently for each survey, we calculated sex- and age-specific estimates of the prevalence of drinkers and the distribution of individuals across consumption categories. We used these aggregated results, together with data on alcohol production, sales and import/export, as inputs of a Bayesian model and generated yearly estimates of the prevalence of drinkers in the population and the parameters that characterise the distribution of the average consumption among drinkers. Results Among males, the prevalence of drinkers decreased between 1998 and 2009, from 56.2% (95% CI 53.7%; 58.7%) to 50.6% (49.3%; 52.0%), and increased afterwards to 53.9% (51.5%; 56.2%) in 2016. The average consumption from 52.1 g/day (49.1; 55.6) in 1998 to 42.8 g/day (40.0; 45.7) in 2016. Among females the prevalence of current drinkers rose from 19.0% (17.2%; 20.8%) in 1998 to 20.0% (18.3%; 21.7%) in 2016 while average consumption decreased from 32.7 g/day (30.2; 35.0) to 26.4 g/day (23.8; 28.9). Conclusions The methodology provides a viable alternative to current approaches to reconcile survey estimates of individual alcohol consumption patterns with aggregate administrative data. It provides sex- and age-specific estimates of prevalence of drinkers and distribution of average daily consumption among drinkers in populations. Reliance on locally sourced data instead of global and regional trend estimates better reflects local nuances and is adaptable to the inclusion of additional data. This provides a powerful tool to monitor consumption, develop burden of disease estimates and inform and evaluate public health interventions.

Abstract This paper describes how an up-to-date national population register recording deaths by age and sex, whether deaths were due to natural or unnatural causes, and the offices at which the deaths were recorded can be used to monitor excess death during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, both nationally, and sub-nationally, in a country with a vital registration system that is neither up to date nor complete. Apart from suggesting an approach for estimating completeness of reporting at a sub-national level, the application produces estimates of the number of deaths in excess of those expected in the absence of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic that are highly correlated with the confirmed number of COVID-19 deaths over time, but at a level 2.5 to 3 times higher than the official numbers of COVID-19 deaths. Apportioning the observed excess deaths more precisely to COVID, COVID-related and collateral deaths, and non-COVID deaths averted by interventions with reduced mobility and gatherings, etc., requires access to real-time cause-of-death information. It is suggested that the transition from ICD-10 to ICD-11 should be used as an opportunity to change from a paper-based system to electronic capture of the medical cause-of-death information.

Background Real-world evaluation of the safety profile of vaccines after licensure is crucial to accurately characterise safety beyond clinical trials, support continued use, and thereby improve public confidence. The Sisonke study aimed to assess the safety and effectiveness of the Janssen Ad26.COV2.S vaccine among healthcare workers (HCWs) in South Africa. Here, we present the safety data. Methods and findings In this open-label phase 3b implementation study among all eligible HCWs in South Africa registered in the national Electronic Vaccination Data System (EVDS), we monitored adverse events (AEs) at vaccination sites through self-reporting triggered by text messages after vaccination, healthcare provider reports, and active case finding. The frequency and incidence rate of non-serious and serious AEs were evaluated from the day of first vaccination (17 February 2021) until 28 days after the final vaccination in the study (15 June 2021). COVID-19 breakthrough infections, hospitalisations, and deaths were ascertained via linkage of the electronic vaccination register with existing national databases. Among 477,234 participants, 10,279 AEs were reported, of which 138 (1.3%) were serious AEs (SAEs) or AEs of special interest. Women reported more AEs than men (2.3% versus 1.6%). AE reports decreased with increasing age (3.2% for age 18–30 years, 2.1% for age 31–45 years, 1.8% for age 46–55 years, and 1.5% for age > 55 years). Participants with previous COVID-19 infection reported slightly more AEs (2.6% versus 2.1%). The most common reactogenicity events were headache (n = 4,923) and body aches (n = 4,483), followed by injection site pain (n = 2,767) and fever (n = 2,731), and most occurred within 48 hours of vaccination. Two cases of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome and 4 cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome were reported post-vaccination. Most SAEs and AEs of special interest (n = 138) occurred at lower than the expected population rates. Vascular (n = 37; 39.1/100,000 person-years) and nervous system disorders (n = 31; 31.7/100,000 person-years), immune system disorders (n = 24; 24.3/100,000 person-years), and infections and infestations (n = 19; 20.1/100,000 person-years) were the most common reported SAE categories. A limitation of the study was the single-arm design, with limited routinely collected morbidity comparator data in the study setting. Conclusions We observed similar patterns of AEs as in phase 3 trials. AEs were mostly expected reactogenicity signs and symptoms. Furthermore, most SAEs occurred below expected rates. The single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine demonstrated an acceptable safety profile, supporting the continued use of this vaccine in this setting. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04838795; Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR202102855526180. Saimbarashe Takuva, Azwi Takalani, and colleagues investigate the frequency and incidence of adverse events reported after receipt of a single dose of the Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine among health care workers in South Africa. Author summary Why was this study done? While the safety of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine was established in phase 3 clinical trials, continuous evaluation of safety in expanded populations is crucial. The Sisonke phase 3b implementation study enrolled almost half a million healthcare workers, providing an opportunity to further evaluate the safety of the single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine. What did the researchers do and find? A total of 477,234 healthcare workers across all South African provinces received the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine between 17 February 2021 and 17 May 2021. Through self-reports and active case finding, adverse events, serious adverse events, and adverse events of special interest were identified. Overall occurrence of adverse events was low. The majority of adverse events reported were common reactogenicity signs and symptoms. Most serious adverse events and adverse events of special interest, including vascular events, immune system disorders, and deaths, occurred at lower than the expected population rates. What do these findings mean? The single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine had an acceptable safety profile. This supports continued use of this vaccine in large rollout programmes.

Accurate statistics are essential for policy guidance and decisions. However, the reported number of cases and COVID-19 deaths are known to be biased due to under-ascertainment of SARS-CoV-2 and incomplete reporting of deaths. Making use of death data from the National Population Register has made it possible to track in near-real time the number of excess deaths experienced in South Africa. These data reveal considerable provincial differences in the impact of COVID-19, likely associated with differences in population age structure and density, patterns of social mixing, and differences in the prevalence of known comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. As the waves unfolded, levels of natural immunity together with vaccination began to reduce levels of mortality. Mortality rates during the second (Beta) wave were much higher than mortality in the third (Delta) wave, which were higher than in either the first or the fourth (Omicron) waves. However, the cumulative death toll during the second (Beta) wave was of a similar order of magnitude as that during the third (Delta) wave due to the longer duration of the Delta wave. Near-real time monitoring of all-cause deaths should be refined to provide more granular level information to enable district-level policy support. In the meanwhile, there is an urgent need to re-engineer the civil registration and vital statistics system to enable more timely access to cause of death information for public health actions. Significance: This study highlights that in South Africa there were about three times the number of excess deaths from natural causes during 2020 and 2021 than reported COVID-19 deaths. Although the cause of death remains unknown, the strong temporal correlation between excess deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths within each province indicates that the majority of excess deaths were associated with COVID-19. Many countries have found it difficult to estimate excess deaths, or to identify and report COVID-19 deaths accurately, demonstrating the value of near-real time monitoring of mortality through the use and demographic analysis of data obtained from the country’s National Population Register. Open data set: https://www.samrc.ac.za/sites/default/files/files/2022-02-09/Estimated%20deaths%20for%20SA%2007%20Feb%202022%20with%20adj2.xlsx

PURPOSE In this study, we aimed to investigate trends in the age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates in two distinct regions (the northern and southern areas) of South Africa covered by a population-based cancer registry. In addition, trends in coverage of the cervical cancer screening program were assessed using routine health service data. METHODS Occurrences (topography C53.0-C53.9) for the period 1998-2012 were extracted from a cancer registry database from which basic descriptive statistics and frequencies were analyzed for all variables using CanReg4. Trends over time were estimated using a direct standardization method and world standard population as a reference. Screening coverage annualized figures for women age ≥ 30 years by sub–health district were extracted from the District Health Information System. RESULTS In the northern area, annual age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 women increased from 24.0 (95% CI, 21.1 to 27.0) in 1998-2002 to 39.0 (95% CI, 35.6 to 42.5) in 2008-2012, with a screening coverage rate of 15% by 2012. In contrast, no increase was observed in incidence in the southern area, with rates of 20.0 (95% CI, 18.5 to 21.4) in 1998-2002 and 18.8 (95% CI, 16.2 to 21.4) in 2008-2012, and the southern area had a higher screening coverage of 41% in 2012. Overall, the percentage distribution of stage at diagnosis showed that 28.5% of occurrences were diagnosed at disease stages I and II and 35%, at III and IV; 36% had with missing stage information (2003-2012). In 77% of occurrences, a histologically verified diagnosis was made, compared with only 12.3% by cytology. CONCLUSION This study has demonstrated an almost two-fold increase in the incidence rate in the northern area but little change in the southern area of the cancer registry.

BackgroundUse of a standardized verbal autopsy (VA) questionnaire, such as the World Health Organization (WHO) instrument, can improve the consistency and reliability of the data it collects. Systematically revising a questionnaire, however, requires evidence about the performance of its questions. The purpose of this investigation was to use a mixed methods approach to evaluate the performance of questions related to 14 previously reported issues in the 2016 version of the WHO questionnaire, where there were concerns of potential confusion, redundancy, or inability of the respondent to answer the question. The results from this mixed methods analysis are discussed across common themes that may have contributed to the underperformance of questions and have been compiled to inform decisions around the revision of the current VA instrument.MethodsQuantitative analysis of 19,150 VAs for neonates, children, and adults from five project teams implementing VAs predominately in Sub-Saharan Africa included frequency distributions and cross-tabulations to evaluate response patterns among related questions. The association of respondent characteristics and response patterns was evaluated using prevalence ratios. Qualitative analysis included results from cognitive interviewing, an approach that provides a detailed understanding of the meanings and processes that respondents use to answer interview questions. Cognitive interviews were conducted among 149 participants in Morocco and Zambia. Findings from the qualitative and quantitative analyses were triangulated to identify common themes.ResultsFour broad themes contributing to the underperformance or redundancy within the instrument were identified: question sequence, overlap within the question series, questions outside the frame of reference of the respondent, and questions needing clarification. The series of questions associated with one of the 14 identified issues (the series of questions on injuries) related to question sequence; seven (tobacco use, sores, breast swelling, abdominal problem, vomiting, vaccination, and baby size) demonstrated similar response patterns among questions within each series capturing overlapping information. Respondent characteristics, including relationship to the deceased and whether or not the respondent lived with the deceased, were associated with differing frequencies of non-substantive responses in three question series (female health related issues, tobacco use, and baby size). An inconsistent understanding of related constructs was observed between questions related to sores/ulcers, birth weight/baby size, and diagnosis of dementia/presence of mental confusion. An incorrect association of the intended construct with that which was interpreted by the respondent was observed in the medical diagnosis question series.ConclusionsIn this mixed methods analysis, we identified series of questions which could be shortened through elimination of redundancy, series of questions requiring clarification due to unclear constructs, and the impact of respondent characteristics on the quality of responses. These changes can lead to a better understanding of the question constructs by the respondents, increase the acceptance of the tool, and improve the overall accuracy of the VA instrument.

Background Aside from human papillomavirus (HPV), the role of other risk factors in cervical cancer such as age, education, parity, sexual partners, smoking and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have been described but never ranked in order of priority. We evaluated the contribution of several known lifestyle co-risk factors for cervical cancer among black South African women. Methods We used participant data from the Johannesburg Cancer Study, a case-control study of women recruited mainly at Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital between 1995 and 2016. A total of 3,450 women in the study had invasive cervical cancers, 95% of which were squamous cell carcinoma. Controls were 5,709 women with cancers unrelated to exposures of interest. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (ORadj) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We ranked these risk factors by their population attributable fractions (PAF), which take the local prevalence of exposure among the cases and risk into account. Results Cervical cancer in decreasing order of priority was associated with (1) being HIV positive (ORadj = 2.83, 95% CI = 2.53–3.14, PAF = 17.6%), (2) lower educational attainment (ORadj = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.44–1.77, PAF = 16.2%), (3) higher parity (3+ children vs 2–1 children (ORadj = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.07–1.46, PAF = 12.6%), (4) hormonal contraceptive use (ORadj = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.24–1.77, PAF = 8.9%), (5) heavy alcohol consumption (ORadj = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.15–1.81, PAF = 5.6%), (6) current smoking (ORadj = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.41–1.91, PAF = 5.1%), and (7) rural residence (ORadj = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.44–1.77, PAF = 4.4%). Conclunsion This rank order of risks could be used to target educational messaging and appropriate interventions for cervical cancer prevention in South African women.

Background: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) approach estimates disease burden by combining fatal (years of life lost) and non-fatal burden prevalence-based years of life lived with disability (PYLDs) estimates. Although South Africa has data to estimate mortality, prevalence data to estimate non-fatal burden are sparse. PYLD estimates from the GBD study for South Africa can potentially be used. However, there is a divergence in mortality estimates for South Africa between the second South African National Burden of Disease (SANBD2) and 2013 GBD studies. Objective: We investigated the feasibility of utilising GBD PYLD estimates for stroke and diabetes by exploring different disease modelling scenarios. Method: DisMod II software-generated South African stroke and diabetes PYLDs for 2010 from models using local epidemiological parameters and demographic data for people 20–79 years old. We investigated the impact on PYLD estimates of 1) differences in the cause-of-death envelope, 2) differences in the cause-specific mortality estimates (increase/decrease by 15% for stroke and 30% for diabetes), and 3) difference using local disease parameters compared to other country or region parameters. Differences were expressed as ratios, average ratios and ratio ranges. Results: Using the GBD cause-of-death envelope (16% more deaths than SANBD2) and holding other parameters constant yielded age-specific ratios of PYLDs for stroke and diabetes ranging between 0.89 and 1.07 (average 0.98) for males. Similar results were observed for females. A 15% change in age-specific stroke mortality showed little difference in the ratio comparison of PYLDs (range 0.98–1.02) while a 30% change in age-specific diabetes mortality resulted in a ratio range of 0.96–1.07 for PYLDs depending on age. Conclusion: This study showed that GBD non-fatal burden estimates (PYLDs) can be used for stroke and diabetes non-fatal burden in the SANBD2 study.

Abstract Background Information-use is an integral component of a routine health information system and essential to influence policy-making, program actions and research. Despite an increased amount of routine data collected, planning and resource-allocation decisions made by health managers for managing HIV programs are often not based on data. This study investigated the use of information, and barriers to using routine data for monitoring the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) programs in two high HIV-prevalence districts in South Africa. Methods We undertook an observational study using a multi-method approach, including an inventory of facility records and reports. The performance of routine information systems management (PRISM) diagnostic ‘Use of Information’ tool was used to assess the PMTCT information system for evidence of data use in 57 health facilities in two districts. Twenty-two in-depth interviews were conducted with key informants to investigate barriers to information use in decision-making. Participants were purposively selected based on their positions and experience with either producing PMTCT data and/or using data for management purposes. We computed descriptive statistics and used a general inductive approach to analyze the qualitative data. Results Despite the availability of mechanisms and processes to facilitate information-use in about two-thirds of the facilities, evidence of information-use (i.e., indication of some form of information-use in available RHIS reports) was demonstrated in 53% of the facilities. Information was inadequately used at district and facility levels to inform decisions and planning, but was selectively used for reporting and monitoring program outputs at the provincial level. The inadequate use of information stemmed from organizational issues such as the lack of a culture of information-use, lack of trust in the data, and the inability of program and facility managers to analyze, interpret and use information. Conclusions Managers’ inability to use information implied that decisions for program implementation and improving service delivery were not always based on data. This lack of data use could influence the delivery of health care services negatively. Facility and program managers should be provided with opportunities for capacity development as well as practice-based, in-service training, and be supported to use information for planning, management and decision-making.

Background: The global burden of disease (GBD) 2010 study used a universal set of disability weights to estimate disability adjusted life years (DALYs) by country. However, it is not clear whether these weights can be applied universally in calculating DALYs to inform local decision-making. This study derived disability weights for a resource-constrained community in Cape Town, South Africa, and interrogated whether the GBD 2010 disability weights necessarily represent the preferences of economically disadvantaged communities. Design: A household survey was conducted in Lavender Hill, Cape Town, to assess the health state preferences of the general public. The responses from a paired comparison valuation method were assessed using a probit regression. The probit coefficients were anchored onto the 0 to 1 disability weight scale by running a lowess regression on the GBD 2010 disability weights and interpolating the coefficients between the upper and lower limit of the smoothed disability weights. Results: Heroin and opioid dependence had the highest disability weight of 0.630, whereas intellectual disability had the lowest (0.040). Untreated injuries ranked higher than severe mental disorders. There were some counterintuitive results, such as moderate (15th) and severe vision impairment (16th) ranking higher than blindness (20th). A moderate correlation between the disability weights of the local study and those of the GBD 2010 study was observed (R2=0.440, p

Background The question 'Was the deceased a smoker five years ago?' was introduced in mid-1997 on a revised South African death notification form to provide a direct estimate of tobacco attributed mortality, using a case-control method for ongoing monitoring of the tobacco epidemic. This paper updates previous reports (1999 to 2007). Methods This analysis included 772,975 deaths from 2000 to 2013, for persons 35 to 74 years with information about age, year of death, sex, province of death, educational grade, marital status, population group and smoking status (current smoker vs. not). Cases comprised deaths due to diseases expected to be associated with smoking; controls comprised deaths from selected conditions expected to be unrelated to smoking. Deaths due to HIV without TB, external causes, cirrhosis, mental disorders, maternal and perinatal conditions and diabetes were excluded. Smoking-associated relative risks were assumed to be the case/control versus smoker/ex & non-smoker odds ratios, adjusted for 5-year age group, education, province, year of death, marital status. Deaths were extrapolated to the NBD national annual estimates for 2012. Results Smoking-associated relative risks were highest for lung and upper aero-digestive cancers and COPD amongst the white and coloured (mixed race) populations reflecting their relatively higher smoking prevalence. When extrapolated to NBD estimates for 2012, smoking-attributable deaths accounted for approximately 14 329 out of 284 949 total deaths in persons aged 35 - 74 years (5%). Tuberculosis remains the leading cause of smoking-attributable deaths (approx 24%) followed by COPD (approx 19%) and lung cancer (approx 17%). Conclusions Different population groups in South Africa are at different stages of the tobacco epidemic and ongoing monitoring by population group is required. The cause profile of smoking-attributable mortality in South Africa differs from that in developed countries and suggests that tobacco cessation should be incorporated into the South African TB programme.

Background Monitoring prevalence of smoking is essential for evaluating the impact of national tobacco control policies. This study aims to estimate national pooled smoking prevalence trends over a 16 year period for adult South Africans. Methods Smoking prevalence by age, sex and race from 14 South African population and national household surveys conducted between 1998 - 2014 were used to generate trends over time by 1) performing a series of transformations of the aggregated prevalence data, 2) investigating interactions with race/time, and 3) using a posthumous regression. Bias within surveys were adjusted for by using a risk-of-bias weight. Results The overall observed smoking prevalence decreased from 23.7 (22.4; 24.9) in 1998 to 20.3 (19.3; 21.4) in 2014. Downward trends were observed in both males and females, although it was steeper in males. There were significant differences between race groups, as well as within race groups across age, most notably Asian males, which also seemed to drive the steep decline among males. Whilst the downward trend was evident in older ages (25 + years), the youngest group (15 - 24 years) had a non-linear trend differing from the linear trend in the older group. Conclusions Pooling estimates from different national surveys over time, gave an effective picture of trends in smoking in South Africa. Although not directly observable, the trends reported indicate that the South African Tobacco Control Act of 1993 had influenced and maintained decreasing smoking trends in the last couple of decades, albeit to a lesser extent among females.

Abstract Objective To investigate injury-related mortality in South Africa using a nationally representative sample and compare the results with previous estimates. Methods We conducted a retrospective descriptive study of medico-legal postmortem investigation data from mortuaries using a multistage random sample, stratified by urban and non-urban areas and mortuary size. We calculated age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates for external causes of death. Findings Postmortem reports revealed 52 493 injury-related deaths in 2009 (95% confidence interval, CI: 46 930-58 057). Almost half (25 499) were intentionally inflicted. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100 000 population were as follows: all injuries: 109.0 (95% CI: 97.1-121.0); homicide 38.4 (95% CI: 33.8-43.0; suicide 13.4 (95% CI: 11.6-15.2) and road-traffic injury 36.1 (95% CI: 30.9-41.3). Using postmortem reports, we found more than three times as many deaths from homicide and road-traffic injury than had been recorded by vital registration for this period. The homicide rate was similar to the estimate for South Africa from a global analysis, but road-traffic and suicide rates were almost fourfold higher. Conclusion This is the first nationally representative sample of injury-related mortality in South Africa. It provides more accurate estimates and cause-specific profiles that are not available from other sources.

Background: Non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs) have increased in South Africa over the past 15 years. While these usually manifest during mid-to-late adulthood, the development of modifiable risk factors that contribute to NCDs are usually adopted early in life. Objective: To describe the urban–rural and gender patterns of NCD risk factors in black adolescents and young adults (15- to 24-year-olds) from two South African Demographic and Health Surveys conducted 5 years apart. Design: An observational study based on interviews and measurements from two cross-sectional national household surveys. Changes in tobacco and alcohol use, dietary intake, physical inactivity, and overweight/obesity among 15- to 24-year-olds as well as urban–rural and gender differences were analysed using logistic regression. The ‘Surveyset’ option in Stata statistical software was used to allow for the sampling weight in the analysis. Results: Data from 3,186 and 2,066 black 15- to 24-year-old participants in 1998 and 2003, respectively, were analysed. In males, the prevalence of smoking (1998: 21.6%, 2003: 19.1%) and problem drinking (1998: 17.2%, 2003: 15.2%) were high and increased with age, but in females were much lower (smoking – 1998: 1.0%, 2003: 2.1%; problem drinking – 1998: 4.2%, 2003: 5.8%). The predominant risk factors in females were overweight/obesity (1998: 29.9%, 2003: 31.1%) and physical inactivity (2003: 46%). Urban youth, compared to their rural counterparts, were more likely to smoke (odds ratio (OR): 1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09–1.75), have high salt intake (OR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.12–2.78), be overweight/obese (OR: 1.39, 95% CI: 1.14–1.69), or be physically inactive (OR: 1.45, 95% CI: 1.12–1.89). However, they had lower odds of inadequate micronutrient intake (OR: 0.46, 95% CI 0.34–0.62), and there was no overall significant urban– rural difference in the odds for problem drinking but among females the odds were higher in urban compared to rural females. Conclusion: Considering that the prevalence of modifiable NCD risk factors was high in this population, and that these may persist into adulthood, innovative measures are required to prevent the uptake of unhealthy behaviours, and regular surveillance is needed.

The value of good-quality mortality data for public health is widely acknowledged. While effective civil registration systems remains the ‘gold standard’ source for continuous mortality measurement, less than 25% of deaths are registered in most African countries. Alternative data collection systems can provide mortality data to complement those from civil registration, given an understanding of data source characteristics and data quality. We aim to document mortality data sources in post-democracy South Africa; to report on availability, limitations, strengths, and possible complementary uses of the data; and to make recommendations for improved data for mortality measurement. Civil registration and alternative mortality data collection systems, data availability, and complementary uses were assessed by reviewing blank questionnaires, death notification forms, death data capture sheets, and patient cards; legislation; electronic data archives and databases; and related information in scientific journals, research reports, statistical releases, government reports and books. Recent transformation has enhanced civil registration and official mortality data availability. Additionally, a range of mortality data items are available in three population censuses, three demographic surveillance systems, and a number of national surveys, mortality audits, and disease notification programmes. Child and adult mortality items were found in all national data sources, and maternal mortality items in most. Detailed cause-of-death data are available from civil registration and demographic surveillance. In a continent often reported as lacking the basic data to infer levels, patterns and trends of mortality, there is evidence of substantial improvement in South Africa in the availability of data for mortality assessment. Mortality data sources are many and varied, providing opportunity for comparing results and improved public health planning. However, more can and must be done to improve mortality measurement by improving data quality, triangulating data, and expanding analytic capacity. Cause data, in particular, must be improved.

Background: The poor health of South Africans is known to be associated with a quadruple disease burden. In the second National Burden of Disease (NBD) study, we aimed to analyse cause of death data for 1997–2012 and develop national, population group, and provincial estimates of the levels and causes of mortality. Method: We used underlying cause of death data from death notifications for 1997–2012 obtained from Statistics South Africa. These data were adjusted for completeness using indirect demographic techniques for adults and comparison with survey and census estimates for child mortality. A regression approach was used to estimate misclassified HIV/AIDS deaths and so-called garbage codes were proportionally redistributed by age, sex, and population group population group (black African, Indian or Asian descent, white [European descent], and coloured [of mixed ancestry according to the preceding categories]). Injury deaths were estimated from additional data sources. Age-standardised death rates were calculated with mid-year population estimates and the WHO age standard. Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease (IHME GBD) estimates for South Africa were obtained from the IHME GHDx website for comparison. Findings: All-cause age-standardised death rates increased rapidly since 1997, peaked in 2006 and then declined, driven by changes in HIV/AIDS. Mortality from tuberculosis, non-communicable diseases, and injuries decreased slightly. In 2012, HIV/AIDS caused the most deaths (29·1%) followed by cerebrovascular disease (7·5%) and lower respiratory infections (4·9%). All-cause age-standardised death rates were 1·7 times higher in the province with the highest death rate compared to the province with the lowest death rate, 2·2 times higher in black Africans compared to whites, and 1·4 times higher in males compared with females. Comparison with the IHME GBD estimates for South Africa revealed substantial differences for estimated deaths from all causes, particularly HIV/AIDS and interpersonal violence. Interpretation: This study shows the reversal of HIV/AIDS, non-communicable disease, and injury mortality trends in South Africa during the study period. Mortality differentials show the importance of social determinants, raise concerns about the quality of health services, and provide relevant information to policy makers for addressing inequalities. Differences between GBD estimates for South Africa and this study emphasise the need for more careful calibration of global models with local data. Funding: South African Medical Research Council's Flagships Awards Project.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the leading causes of mortality and premature mortality in Cape Town, South Africa, and its subdistricts, and to compare levels of mortality between subdistricts. METHODS: Cape Town mortality data for the period 2001-2006 were analysed by age, cause of death and sex. Cause-of-death codes were aggregated into three main cause groups: (i) pre-transitional causes (e.g. communicable diseases, maternal causes, perinatal conditions and nutritional deficiencies), (ii) noncommunicable diseases and (iii) injuries. Premature mortality was calculated in years of life lost (YLLs). Population estimates for the Cape Town Metro district were used to calculate age-specific rates per 100 000 population, which were then age-standardized and compared across subdistricts. FINDINGS: The pattern of mortality in Cape Town reflects the quadruple burden of disease observed in the national cause-of-death profile, with HIV/AIDS, other infectious diseases, injuries and noncommunicable diseases all accounting for a significant proportion of deaths. HIV/AIDS has replaced homicide as the leading cause of death. HIV/AIDS, homicide, tuberculosis and road traffic injuries accounted for 44% of all premature mortality. Khayelitsha, the poorest subdistrict, had the highest levels of mortality for all main cause groups. CONCLUSION: Local mortality surveillance highlights the differential needs of the population of Cape Town and provides a wealth of data to inform planning and implementation of targeted interventions. Multisectoral interventions will be required to reduce the burden of disease.

OBJECTIVE To estimate the magnitude and characteristics of the injury burden in South Africa within a global context. METHODS: The Actuarial Society of South Africa demographic and AIDS model (ASSA 2002) - calibrated to survey, census and adjusted vital registration data - was used to calculate the total number of deaths in 2000. Causes of death were determined from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System profile. Injury death rates and years of life lost (YLL) were estimated using the Global Burden of Disease methodology. National years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by applying a ratio between YLLs and YLDs found in a local injury data source, the Cape Metropole Study. Mortality and disability-adjusted life years' (DALYs) rates were compared with African and global estimates. FINDINGS: Interpersonal violence dominated the South African injury profile with age-standardized mortality rates at seven times the global rate. Injuries were the second-leading cause of loss of healthy life, accounting for 14.3% of all DALYs in South Africa in 2000. Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are the leading cause of injury in most regions of the world but South Africa has exceedingly high numbers - double the global rate. CONCLUSION: Injuries are an important public health issue in South Africa. Social and economic determinants of violence, many a legacy of apartheid policies, must be addressed to reduce inequalities in society and build community cohesion. Multisectoral interventions to reduce traffic injuries are also needed. We highlight this heavy burden to stress the need for effective prevention programmes.

BackgroundTwo World Health Organization comparative assessments rated the quality of South Africa's 1996 mortality data as low. Since then, focussed initiatives were introduced to improve civil registration and vital statistics. Furthermore, South African cause-of-death data are widely used by research and international development agencies as the basis for making estimates of cause-specific mortality in many African countries. It is hence important to assess the quality of more recent South African data.MethodsWe employed nine criteria to evaluate the quality of civil registration mortality data. Four criteria were assessed by analysing 5.38 million deaths that occurred nationally from 1997-2007. For the remaining five criteria, we reviewed relevant legislation, data repositories, and reports to highlight developments which shaped the current status of these criteria.FindingsNational mortality statistics from civil registration were rated satisfactory for coverage and completeness of death registration, temporal consistency, age/sex classification, timeliness, and sub-national availability. Epidemiological consistency could not be assessed conclusively as the model lacks the discriminatory power to enable an assessment for South Africa. Selected studies and the extent of ill-defined/non-specific codes suggest substantial shortcomings with single-cause data. The latter criterion and content validity were rated unsatisfactory.ConclusionIn a region marred by mortality data absences and deficiencies, this analysis signifies optimism by revealing considerable progress from a dysfunctional mortality data system to one that offers all-cause mortality data that can be adjusted for demographic and health analysis. Additionally, timely and disaggregated single-cause data are available, certified and coded according to international standards. However, without skillfully estimating adjustments for biases, a considerable confidence gap remains for single-cause data to inform local health planning, or to fill gaps in sparse-data countries on the continent. Improving the accuracy of single-cause data will be a critical contribution to the epidemiologic and population health evidence base in Africa.

No abstract available.

This paper aims to quantify the effects of different types of sexual risk behaviour on the spread of HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed to simulate changes in numbers of sexual partners, changes in marital status, changes in commercial sex activity and changes in the frequency of unprotected sex over the life course. This is extended to allow for the transmission of HIV, and the model is fitted to South African HIV prevalence data and sexual behaviour data. Results suggest that concurrent partnerships and other non-spousal partnerships are major drivers of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa.