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We introduce a novel method to estimate the causal effects of an intervention over multiple treated units by combining the techniques of probabilistic forecasting with global forecasting methods using deep learning (DL) models. Considering the counterfactual and synthetic approach for policy evaluation, we recast the causal effect estimation problem as a counterfactual prediction outcome of the treated units in the absence of the treatment. Nevertheless, in contrast to estimating only the counterfactual time series outcome, our work differs from conventional methods by proposing to estimate the counterfactual time series probability distribution based on the past preintervention set of treated and untreated time series. We rely on time series properties and forecasting methods, with shared parameters, applied to stacked univariate time series for causal identification. This article presents DeepProbCP, a framework for producing accurate quantile probabilistic forecasts for the counterfactual outcome, based on training a global autoregressive recurrent neural network model with conditional quantile functions on a large set of related time series. The output of the proposed method is the counterfactual outcome as the spline-based representation of the counterfactual distribution. We demonstrate how this probabilistic methodology added to the global DL technique to forecast the counterfactual trend and distribution outcomes overcomes many challenges faced by the baseline approaches to the policy evaluation problem. Oftentimes, some target interventions affect only the tails or the variance of the treated units' distribution rather than the mean or median, which is usual for skewed or heavy-tailed distributions. Under this scenario, the classical causal effect models based on counterfactual predictions are not capable of accurately capturing or even seeing policy effects. By means of empirical evaluations of synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that our framework delivers more accurate forecasts than the state-of-the-art models, depicting, in which quantiles, the intervention most affected the treated units, unlike the conventional counterfactual inference methods based on nonprobabilistic approaches.

Purpose Firearm-related suicide is a noteworthy and preventable public health issue that has drawn limited attention in Australian research. Firearms are highly lethal and remain in the top three methods of suicide among Australian males. This study examines suicides occurring in Tasmania, the jurisdiction with the highest rate of firearm-related suicide, with the aim of aiding suicide prevention strategies. Methods A mixed-methods approach was used to analyze data from the Tasmanian Suicide Register. The quantitative analysis examined socio-demographic factors, substance use, physical and mental health, and access to services for suicides occurring between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2016. The qualitative analysis comprised firearm-related suicides occurring between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2017. Results Firearms users were more likely than those employing other means of suicide to be male, retired, and residing in remote areas but were less likely to have had a previous mental illness diagnosis or evidence of suicidal ideation or self-harming behaviors. There was some evidence of increased impulsiveness among firearm users. We found 54% of decedents were licensed to own a firearm at the time of death. Firearms most often belonged to the decedent (52%) and 26% sourced a firearm from family or friends. Only 58% of cases involved a firearm with a dedicated storage facility. Conclusions Prevention efforts need to take into account the unique profiles of those at risk of firearm-related suicide. Impulsiveness and the varying levels of adherence to firearms safety practices point to the need for strategies that limit physical access to firearms.HIGHLIGHTSFirearms-related suicides have a unique risk profile compared with other means of suicide.Mental illness diagnosis, suicidal thoughts, and self-harming behaviors were less commonly identified among firearms-related suicides than other means of suicide.Impulsiveness and the varying levels of adherence to firearms safety practices point to the need for strategies that limit physical access to firearms.

Gamma-hydroxybutyrate (GHB) use and attributable harms have been increasing in Australia, however changes over time, including the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions on harms requiring an ambulance attendance, are unknown. This study utilised a novel population-based surveillance system to identify the types of GHB-related harms between January 2018 and 31 December 2021 in Victoria, Australia.A cross-sectional, retrospective analysis of all GHB-related ambulance attendances between January 2018 and 31 December 2021 in Victoria, Australia was undertaken. Paramedic clinical notes and Glasgow Coma Scale scores were used to assess conscious state. Event codes were classified using dispatch information available in the database. Crude rates (per 100,000 population) and descriptive analyses were calculated for metropolitan and regional settings. Adjusted Odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals [95% CI] were used to assess the relationship between GCS severity and polysubstance combinations with GHB.There were 6,836 ambulance attendances for GHB recorded during the study period. A statistically significant increase in GHB-related attendance numbers was observed State-wide in 2019 (n = 1,402, p0.001) and 2020 (n = 2,622, p0.001), when comparing year on year attendances. While both numbers and rates (per 100,000 population) of GHB-related attendances were significantly lower in regional areas, significant increases were evident in both metropolitan and regional areas in 2019 and 2020 (both p0.001). Attendances involving GHB and alcohol had higher odds of a severe GCS score (aOR:1.25; 95%: 1.04-1.49; p0.019). A high proportion of GHB-attendances involved harms of significant concern including: overdose (56%) and a loss of, or altered state of consciousness (45%).We observed increases in GHB-related ambulance attendances over time in both metropolitan and regional areas, placing a significant burden on ambulance services. Our study demonstrates the value of using ambulance surveillance to obtain representative data on acute GHB-related harms.

Alcohol harms are often determined using a proxy measure based on temporal patterns during the week when harms are most likely to occur. This study utilised coded Australian ambulance data from the Victorian arm of the National Ambulance Surveillance System (NASS) to investigate temporal patterns across the week for alcohol-related ambulance attendances in 2019. These patterns were examined by season, regionality, gender, and age group. We found clear temporal peaks: from Friday 6:00 p.m. to Saturday 3:59 a.m. for both alcohol-involved and alcohol-intoxication-related attendance, from Saturday 6:00 p.m. to Sunday 4:59 a.m. for alcohol-involved attendances, and from Saturday 5:00 p.m. to Sunday 4:49 a.m. for alcohol-intoxication-related attendances. However, these temporal trends varied across age groups. Additionally, hours during Thursday and Sunday evenings also demonstrated peaks in attendances. There were no substantive differences between genders. Younger age groups (18–24 and 25–29 years) had a peak of alcohol-related attendances from 7:00 p.m. to 7:59 a.m. on Friday and Saturday nights, whereas the peak in attendances for 50–59 and 60+ years was from 5:00 p.m. to 2:59 a.m. on Friday and Saturday nights. These findings further the understanding of the impacts of alcohol during different times throughout the week, which can guide targeted policy responses regarding alcohol use and health service capacity planning.

© 2021 The Authors Objective: The Northern Territory (NT) Government introduced a minimum unit price (MUP) of $1.30 per standard drink (10g pure alcohol) explicitly aimed at reducing the consumption of cheap wine products from October 2018. We aimed to assess the impact of the NT MUP on estimates of beverage-specific population-adjusted alcohol consumption using wholesale alcohol supply data. Methods: Interrupted time series analyses were conducted to examine MUP effects on trends in estimated per capita alcohol consumption (PCAC) for cask wine, total wine and total alcohol, across the NT and in the Darwin/Palmerston region. Results: Significant step decreases were found for cask wine and total wine PCAC in Darwin/Palmerston and across the Northern Territory. PCAC of cask wine decreased by 50.6% in the NT, and by 48.8% in Darwin/Palmerston compared to the prior year. PCAC for other beverages (e.g. beer) were largely unaffected by MUP. Overall, PCAC across the Territory declined, but not in Darwin/Palmerston. Conclusion: With minimal implementation costs, the Northern Territory Government's MUP policy successfully targeted and reduced cask wine and total wine consumption. Cask wine, in particular, almost halved in Darwin/Palmerston where the impact of the MUP was able to be determined and considering other interventions. Implications for public health: Implementation of a minimum unit price for retail alcohol sales is a cost-effective way to reduce the consumption of high alcohol content and high-risk products, such as cheap cask wine.

There is substantial evidence supporting the association between alcohol license density and violent crime. However, the impact of different types of alcohol licenses on intimate partner and family violence is sparse. We explored the associations between access to alcohol outlets, and family and intimate partner violence using paramedic clinical records, given this service is often the first to respond to acute crises. Coded ambulance attendance data from 694 postcodes in Victoria, Australia, from July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2018 where alcohol or another drug, mental health or self-harm associated with family or intimate partner violence was indicated were examined. A hybrid model of spatial autoregressive and negative binomial zero-inflated Poisson-based count regression models was used to examine associations with alcohol outlet density and socioeconomic factors. We found that access to a liquor license outlet was significantly associated with family violence-related attendances across all types of outlets, including on-premise (late night) licenses ( β = 1.73, SE: 0.18), restaurant licenses ( β = 0.83, SE: 0.28), and packaged liquor licenses ( β = 0.62, SE: 0.06). Our results demonstrate a significant relationship between alcohol-related harms in the context of family violence and provides evidence of the relationship between alcohol-related family violence in both victims and perpetrators. The findings of this study highlight the need for public health interventions such as licensing policy and town planning changes to reduce these harms by restricting alcohol availability.

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic brings new worries about the welfare of children, particularly those of families living in poverty and impacted other risk factors. These children will struggle more during the pandemic because of financial pressures and stress placed on parents, as well as their limited access to services and systems of support. In this commentary, we explain how current circumstances reinforce the need for systemic change within statutory child welfare systems and the benefits that would accrue by implementing a continuum of services that combine universal supports with early intervention strategies. We also focus on promising approaches consistent with goals for public health prevention and draw out ideas related workforce development and cross-sector collaboration.

IntroductionThe Banned Drinker Register (BDR) was reintroduced in the Northern Territory (NT) in September 2017. The BDR is a supply reduction measure and involves placing people who consume alcohol at harmful levels on a register prohibiting the purchase, possession and consumption of alcohol. The current study aims to evaluate the impacts of the reintroduction of the BDR, in the context of other major alcohol policy initiatives introduced across the NT such as Police Auxiliary Liquor Inspectors and a minimum unit price for alcohol of US$1.30 per standard drink.Methods and analysesThe Learning from Alcohol (policy) Reforms in the Northern Territory project will use a mixed-methods approach and contain four major components: epidemiological analysis of trends over time (outcomes include health, justice and social welfare data); individual-level data linkage including those on the BDR (outcomes include health and justice data); qualitative interviews with key stakeholders in the NT (n≥50); and qualitative interviews among people who are, or were previously, on the BDR, as well as the families and communities connected to those on the BDR (n=150). The impacts of the BDR on epidemiological data will be examined using time series analysis. Linked data will use generalised mixed models to analyse the relationship between outcomes and exposures, utilising appropriate distributions. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis.Ethics and disseminationEthics approvals have been obtained from NT Department of Health and Menzies School of Health Research Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC), Central Australia HREC and Deakin University HREC. In addition to peer-reviewed publications, we will report our findings to key organisational, policy, government and community stakeholders via conferences, briefings and lay summaries.

Substance use is a risk factor for being both a perpetrator and a victim of violence. The aim of this systematic review was to report the prevalence of acute pre-injury substance use in patients with violence-related injuries. Systematic searches were used to identify observational studies that included patients aged ≥15 years presenting to hospital after violence-related injuries and used objective toxicology measures to report prevalence of acute pre-injury substance use. Studies were grouped based on injury cause (any violence-related, assault, firearm, and other penetrating injuries including stab and incised wounds) and substance type (any substance, alcohol only, drugs other than alcohol only), and they were summarized using narrative synthesis and meta-analyses. This review included 28 studies. Alcohol was detected in 13%–66% of any violence-related injuries (five studies), 4%–71% of assaults (13 studies), 21%–45% of firearm injuries (six studies; pooled estimate = 41%, 95% CI: 40%–42%, n = 9,190), and 9%–66% of other penetrating injuries (nine studies; pooled estimate = 60%, 95% CI: 56%–64%, n = 6,950). Drugs other than alcohol were detected in 37% of any violence-related injuries (one study), 39% of firearm injuries (one study), 7%–49% of assaults (five studies), and 5%–66% of penetrating injuries (three studies). The prevalence of any substance varied across injury categories: any violence-related injuries = 76%–77% (three studies), assaults = 40%–73% (six studies), firearms = n/a, other penetrating injuries = 26%–45% (four studies; pooled estimate = 30%, 95% CI: 24%–37%, n = 319).Overall, substance use was frequently detected in patients presenting to hospital for violence-related injuries. Quantification of substance use in violence-related injuries provides a benchmark for harm reduction and injury prevention strategies.

Objective: To identify processes to engage stakeholders in healthcare Simulation Modeling (SM), and the impacts of this engagement on model design, model implementation, and stakeholder participants. To investigate how engagement process may lead to specific impacts.Data Sources: English-language articles on health SM engaging stakeholders in the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science and Business Source Complete databases published from inception to February 2020.Study Design: A systematic review of the literature based on a priori protocol and reported according to PRISMA guidelines.Extraction Methods: Eligible articles were SM studies with a health outcome which engaged stakeholders in model design. Data were extracted using a data extraction form adapted to be specific for stakeholder engagement in SM studies. Data were analyzed using summary statistics, deductive and inductive content analysis, and narrative synthesis.Principal Findings: Thirty-two articles met inclusion criteria. Processes used to engage stakeholders in healthcare SM are heterogenous and often based on intuition rather than clear methodological frameworks. These processes most commonly involve stakeholders across multiple SM stages via discussion/dialogue, interviews, workshops and meetings. Key reported impacts of stakeholder engagement included improved model quality/accuracy, implementation, and stakeholder decision-making. However, for all but four studies, these reports represented author perceptions rather than formal evaluations incorporating stakeholder perspectives. Possible process enablers of impact included the use of models as “boundary objects” and structured facilitation via storytelling to promote effective communication and mutual understanding between stakeholders and modelers.Conclusions: There is a large gap in the current literature of formal evaluation of SM stakeholder engagement, and a lack of consensus about the processes required for effective SM stakeholder engagement. The adoption and clear reporting of structured engagement and process evaluation methodologies/frameworks are required to advance the field and produce evidence of impact.

Children are often exposed to increased rates of secondary harm such as physical harm, motor vehicle incidents, maltreatment, and neglect because of others' or their own alcohol consumption. Alcohol supply reduction, or alcohol control policies, are often enacted to mitigate alcohol harms within the community. The current systematic narrative review aims to synthesise recent literature that examines how alcohol supply reduction policies impact the physical health, mental health, and offending behaviour of children and adolescents.Eight databases and grey literature sources were systematically searched, and results were synthesised by policy under evaluation. Twenty-one peer reviewed articles and ten grey literature articles were included after screening of 7,135 original articles. Included articles examined the alcohol control policies of the minimum legal drinking age, price control, and trading restrictions, with the most common outcomes under evaluation being related to the physical health or offending behaviour of adolescents.Overall, the current review identified that the impact of alcohol policy on children and adolescents varied depending on the policy type, policy environment and assessed outcome. Common limitations within the literature include inability to control for covariates, use of alcohol related outcomes unsuitable to children and adolescents, and use of cross-sectional data and regression-discontinuity analysis in lieu of actual policy changes.The current review highlights the need to further evaluate the impact of actual alcohol-related policy changes on children and adolescents.

In this article, we argue for a new approach to child welfare—one that replaces existing child protection systems beset by scandals and tragedies with broad-scale system re-alignment that places public health prevention and early intervention at the forefront of efforts to engage, support, and empower families. We explain that the ‘rescue and removal’ orientation that drives policies and practices in contemporary child welfare and child protection systems is deeply flawed in its orientation, lacking in its evidence of effectiveness, and fiscally unsustainable. We point to differential response as one attempt to reform child welfare systems from within, but note that the changes DR brings, while promising, are insufficient to achieve what is required to eradicate child maltreatment and bring about a more just and sustainable practice of promoting the welfare of children. Here, we also share some emerging and encouraging initiatives from around the globe to illustrate the promise of prevention and early intervention approaches—what we call beacons of hope. For the sake of all children, it is time think boldly about the potential that exists in broad-scale, systemic and cross-sectoral reform that fully and unabashedly embraces universal and primary prevention as a means to ensure children’s right to personal security.

Objective:Transporting people out of nightlife districts is often cited as a major issue associated with alcohol-related harm. The Victorian Government introduced 24-hour public transport (24hr PT)...

INTRODUCTION In July 2016, the Queensland Government introduced the Tackling Alcohol-Fuelled Violence (TAFV) policy to address alcohol-related harm in entertainment precincts [safe night precincts (SNP)]. Additional measures were introduced in February and July 2017. We aim to examine the impact of the policy on Queensland Ambulance Service call-outs in Fortitude Valley, Surfers Paradise, all 15 SNP suburbs combined and statewide. METHODS Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models were developed to test the impact of TAFV policy stages on monthly number of ambulance call-outs during high alcohol hours (HAH; Friday and Saturday nights, 20:00-05:59) over an 8-year period (July 2011-June 2019). RESULTS The average number of monthly call-outs in HAH reduced by 26.2% in Fortitude Valley, 21.1% in Surfers Paradise and 4.3% in all 15 SNP suburbs combined. In Fortitude Valley, there was a significant decline in the monthly number of call-outs between 00:00 and 02:59 and across all HAH combined when examining the cumulative effect of the policy stages; and significant declines between 03:00 and 05:59 after each stage and cumulatively. Across the 15 SNP suburbs combined, there was a significant decline in call-outs between 03:00 and 05:59 after the third policy stage (July 2017). There were no significant declines in Surfers Paradise or statewide. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS Overall, the introduction of the TAFV policy stages in Queensland had a limited effect on ambulance call-outs during HAH. However, there were some notable declines in HAH ambulance call-outs in some of the state's key nightlife suburbs.

This research proposes a global forecasting and inference method based on recurrent neural networks (RNN) to predict policy interventions’ causal effects on an outcome over time through the counterfactual approach. The traditional univariate methods that operate within the well-established synthetic control method have strong linearity assumptions in the covariates. This has recently been addressed by successfully using univariate RNNs for this task. We use an RNN trained not univariately per series but globally across all time series, which allows us to model treated and control time series simultaneously over the pre-treatment period. Therewith, we do not need to make equivalence assumptions between distributions of the control and treated outcomes in the pre-treatment period. This allows us to achieve better accuracy and precisely isolate the effect of an intervention. We compare our novel approach with local univariate approaches on two real-world datasets on 1) how policy changes in Alcohol outlet licensing affect emergency service calls, and 2) how COVID19 lockdown measures affect emergency services use. Our results show that our novel method can outperform the accuracy of state-of-the-art predictions, thereby estimating the size of a causal effect more accurately. The experimental results are statistically significant, indicating our framework generates better counterfactual predictions.

This closing commentary to the special section presents an overview of the Queensland Alcohol-related violence and Night-Time Economy Monitoring evaluation findings in comparison to those from other jurisdictions where similar interventions have been implemented (such as Sydney and Newcastle), and especially with previous studies that have used similar evaluation methodologies, such as the Dealing with Alcohol and the Night-Time Economy study. Overall, the articles documented promising reductions in alcohol-related harm, building on the existing evidence base for multi-pronged interventions in entertainment districts. Importantly, this is the first comprehensive investigation to also look at impacts on nightlife-related business and findings demonstrated, that there were improvements for many businesses. There are substantial policy implications for Queensland and other jurisdictions (nationally and globally) wanting to reduce late night alcohol-related harm in entertainment districts.

Background and aims In Australia, oxycodone has been associated with increasing rates of harm over time, despite reduced use, reformulation to a tamper-resistant form and in contrast to most prescription opioids. We explored characteristics of oxycodone-related ambulance attendances to understand whether presentation characteristics could explain increasing oxycodone harm. Design Retrospective study of coded ambulance patient care records related to extramedical oxycodone use, January 2013 to September 2018. Setting Victoria, Australia. Cases A total of 2788 oxycodone-related ambulance attendances. Measurements Primary outcomes were temporal changes in characteristics of oxycodone presentations over time (from 2013 to 2018) and following reformulation. Covariates include demographic characteristics, presentation severity, mental health, substance use and poisoning intent. Findings Average age was 41.3 (± 16.4) years with females comprising 56.4% of attendances (n = 2788). The proportion of females in oxycodone-related attendances increased over time [an average increase in the odds ratios of 5% per year (OR) = 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.10]. Other temporal trends included a reduced likelihood of naloxone administration (OR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.85-1.00), heroin involvement (OR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.66-0.99), comorbid mental health symptoms (OR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.82-0.92) and unknown intent poisoning (OR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.85-0.96); and a greater risk of alcohol involvement (OR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.01-1.11), non-opioid extramedical pharmaceutical use (OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.01-1.10), comorbid suicidal thoughts or behaviours (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.05-1.15) and past history of psychiatric issues (OR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.16-1.27). Interrupted time-series analysis showed that reformulation was associated with an immediate effect on sex, severity, accidental poisoning and unknown intent poisoning, although these were not sustained over time. Alcohol involvement in the attendance (OR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.17-1.74, i.e. an average increase in the odds of 43% per year), Glasgow Coma Scale (OR = 1.28, 95%CI 1.04 - 1.57), a previous history of psychiatric issues (OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.70-0.92, i.e. an average decrease in the odds of 20% per year, heroin involvement (OR = 0.22, 95% CI = 0.05 - 0.98) and illicit drug use (OR = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.23 - 0.87) showed statistically significant relative changes following the reformulation. Conclusions The characteristics of oxycodone presentations in Australian ambulances attendances appear to be changing over time, including more female presentations; increasing alcohol use, extramedical use of non-opioid pharmaceuticals and suicidal thoughts or behaviours and decreasing heroin and illicit drug involvement.

Emergency Medical Services (EMS) demand load has become a considerable burden for many government authorities, and EMS demand is often an early indicator for stress in communities, a warning sign of emerging problems. In this paper, we introduce Deep Planning and Policy Making Net (DeepPPMNet), a Long Short-Term Memory network based, global forecasting and inference framework to forecast the EMS demand, analyse causal relationships, and perform `what-if' analyses for policy-making across multiple local government areas. Unless traditional univariate forecasting techniques, the proposed method follows the global forecasting methodology, where a model is trained across all the available EMS demand time series to exploit the potential cross-series information available. DeepPPMNet also uses seasonal decomposition techniques, incorporated in two different training paradigms into the framework, to suit various characteristics of the EMS related time series data. We then explore causal relationships using the notion of Granger Causality, where the global forecasting framework enables us to perform `what-if' analyses that could be used for the national policy-making process. We empirically evaluate our method, using a set of EMS datasets related to alcohol, drug use and self-harm in Australia. The proposed framework is able to outperform many state-of-the-art techniques and achieve competitive results in terms of forecasting accuracy. We finally illustrate its use for policy-making in an example regarding alcohol outlet licenses.

Background and aims Take-home naloxone, a key response to heroin overdose, may be compromised by the way in which overdose cases are coded in EMS dispatch systems as call-takers direct callers at cardiac arrest events against using any medication. We examined the ways in which confirmed heroin overdose cases attended by ambulances are coded at dispatch to determine whether incorrect coding of overdoses as cardiac arrests may limit the use of take-home naloxone. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of coded ambulance clinical records collected in Victoria, Australia from 2012–2017. Counts of heroin overdose cases were examined by dispatch coding (heroin overdose, cardiac/respiratory arrest and ‘other’), along with age, sex, GCS and respiratory rate. Data were analysed using chi-square and Poisson regression for quarterly counts, adjusting for age, sex and patient GCS. Results A total of 5637 heroin overdose cases were attended over the period 2012–2017 (71.4% male, 36.4% aged under 35 years). Almost half (n = 2674, 47.4%) were coded as cardiac/respiratory arrest at dispatch, with 36.8% (n = 2075) coded as heroin overdose and 15.7% (n = 886) coded as other/unknown. Discussion and conclusions Almost half of the heroin overdoses were dispatched according to a protocol that would preclude the use of take-home naloxone prior to ambulance arrival and this changed little over the period in which take-home naloxone programs were operating in Victoria, Australia. EMS should move as quickly as possible to newer versions of dispatch systems that enable the use of naloxone in cases of obvious opioid overdose that may be classified as cardiac/respiratory arrest.

The acute association between interpersonal violence, alcohol and drug use, self-harm, and mental health issues is relatively unexplored. Violence-related ambulance attendances were analysed, differentiated by type of violence and by victim or aggressor of violence, as well as the co-occurrence of alcohol and drug use, self-harm, and mental health issues. Ambulance attendances related to victims of violence had few co-occurring issues beyond alcohol and drug misuse. In contrast, attendances related to aggressors were more complex, with high proportions of co-occurring mental health, self-harm, and alcohol and drug issues. These findings demonstrate the utility of ambulance data for surveillance of interpersonal violence.

Introduction and aims Despite growing concerns over the extramedical use of pharmaceutical opioids, few studies have focused on the contexts that shape this use or how it might lead to harm. There is also limited research examining how contexts might vary across different opioids, such as those with well-established abuse liabilities (e.g. oxycodone) and newer 'atypical' opioids (e.g. tapentadol). We aimed to address these gaps. Design and methods We analysed Australian paramedic case descriptions for tapentadol cases (n = 82) and a representative sample of oxycodone cases (n = 82) from a 6-year period (2013-2018). We used framework analysis to identify 'contexts' shaping extramedical use from cases where use of tapentadol or oxycodone was assessed to have significantly contributed to the attendances. Results Demographically, case descriptions from both drug types were broadly similar (approximately 55% female, 44% were 35-54 years old), as were the contextual factors. The most prevalent contexts common to both oxycodone and tapentadol cases were psychological distress, physical pain and social stressors. Suicidal intent was present across multiple contexts. Discussion and conclusions This study is one of the first to explore the contexts of extramedical pharmaceutical opioid use leading to acute harm. Our analysis found patients in complex, emergency situations, seeking rapid relief from physical pain, psychological distress, social issues and/or suicidal thoughts. These data highlight the complex needs of those experiencing harm from extramedical pharmaceutical opioid use, regardless of opioid type, and the importance of contextual factors shaping both use and subsequent harm.

Background: In response to COVID-19, government-mandated health directives including widespread lockdowns were implemented. Changes in alcohol purchasing were reported, with growing concern that alcohol may be consumed as a way to cope with pandemic-associated stressors. Hitherto, there have been limited studies examining alcohol-related harms, including acute harms requiring an ambulance, and their relationship to government announcements or policies related to COVID-19. Methods: Analyses were conducted between January and September 2020, with matched months in 2019, using Victorian data from the National Ambulance Surveillance System in Australia. Interrupted time series (ITS) models with odds ratios (OR) were used to map alcohol-related harms as a function of government policies for both metropolitan and regional areas. Findings: A total of 43,003 alcohol intoxication-related ambulance attendances occurred between January 2019 and September 2020. Attendances in the home increased in 2020 by 9% compared to matched 2019 months. The most socioeconomically advantaged cases showed the highest percentage change. ITS models showed decreased odds of alcohol-related attendances at the beginning of each COVID-19 wave in metropolitan (OR:0•77; 95%CI: 0•71-0•83; p

Background and aims Despite increases in opioid prescribing and related morbidity and mortality, few studies have comprehensively documented harms across opioid types. We examined a population-wide indicator of extramedical pharmaceutical opioid-related harm to determine if the supply-adjusted rates of ambulance presentations, the severity of presentations or other attendance characteristics differed by opioid type. Design Retrospective observational study of coded ambulance patient care records related to extramedical pharmaceutical opioid use, January 2013 to September 2018. Setting Australia CASES: Primary analyses used Victorian data (n = 9823), with available data from other Australian jurisdictions (n = 4338) used to determine generalizability. Measurements We calculated supply-adjusted rates of attendances using Poisson regression, and used multinomial logistic regression to compare demographic, presentation severity, mental health, substance use and other characteristics of attendances associated with seven pharmaceutical opioids. Findings In Victoria, the highest rates of attendance [per 100 000 oral morphine equivalent mg (OME)] were for codeine (0.273/100 000) and oxycodone (0.113/100 000). The lowest rates were for fentanyl (0.019/100 000) and tapentadol (0.005/100 000). Oxycodone-naloxone rates (0.031/100 000) were lower than for oxycodone as a single ingredient (0.113/100 000). Fentanyl-related attendances were associated with the most severe characteristics, most likely to be an accidental overdose, most likely to have naloxone administered and least likely to be transferred to hospital. In contrast, codeine-related attendances were more likely to involve suicidal thoughts/behaviours, younger females and be transported to hospital. Supply-adjusted attendance rates for individual opioids were stable over time. Victorian states were broadly consistent with non-Victorian states. Conclusions In Australia, rates and characteristics of opioid-related harm vary by opioid type. Supply-adjusted ambulance attendance rates appear to be both stable over time and unaffected by large changes in supply.

Introduction and aimsExtramedical use of, and associated harms with pharmaceutical opioids are common. Analysis of coded ambulance clinical records provides a unique opportunity to examine a national population-level indicator of relative harms. This protocol describes an observational study with three aims: (1) to compare supply adjusted rates of pharmaceutical opioid-related ambulance attendances for buprenorphine, codeine, fentanyl, oxycodone, oxycodone-naloxone, morphine, pethidine, tramadol and tapentadol; (2) to compare presentation characteristics for these commonly used pharmaceutical opioids and (3) to describe the context surrounding ambulance presentations related to oxycodone, a widely used opioid with an established abuse liability, and tapentadol, a more recent ‘atypical’ opioid on the Australian market, with fewer studies that have directly examined signals of extramedical use.MethodTrained coders extract data from clinical records for ambulance presentations relating to extramedical use of commonly used pharmaceutical opioids. These data form the basis of a large, national database that captures alcohol-related and drug-related harms. Supply adjusted rates of presentations will be examined using Poisson regression. Multinomial logistic regression will be used to compare severity and other characteristics of attendances relating to different pharmaceutical opioids. Tapentadol-related and oxycodone-related cases will be qualitatively examined to understand the situationally specific contexts of the ambulance attendances outside of the characteristics captured in routinely coded variables.Ethics and disseminationEthics approval related to analysis of ambulance attendance data was obtained from the Eastern Health Human Research Ethics Committee (E122 08–09), with an amendment specific to the qualitative analysis. Findings will be submitted for peer review in 2019. The understanding of risk profiles in real-world settings is of international public health importance. The analysis and publication of findings from this national dataset of clinical records will provide one of the most nuanced analyses to date of relative harms across nine pharmaceutical opioids over a 6-year period.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Although the prevalence of gamma-hydroxybutyrate (GHB) use is relatively low globally, harms related to the drug appear to be increasing. Few existing studies present reliable, representative, population-level data on GHB-related harms. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in acute GHB-related harms within an ambulance database in Australia. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS Cross-sectional, retrospective analysis of data on all GHB-related ambulance attendances in the state of Victoria, Australia during a 7-year period (January 2012-December 2018) MEASUREMENTS: Presentations were characterized based on patient demographics, transport to hospital, co-occurring substance use (i.e. GHB only, alcohol, methamphetamine, heroin, benzodiazepine and cannabis) and clinical presentation (e.g. symptoms of anxiety, psychosis, depression). FINDINGS There were 5866 GHB-related ambulance attendances between 2012 and 2018, with the prevalence rate increasing from 8.8 per 100 000 population in 2012 to a maximum of 21.7 per 100 000 population in 2017. Methamphetamine [odds ratio (OR) = 6.23, P

Aims To characterize the trajectory in the years leading up to 2018 in pharmaceutical opioid and heroin morbidity in Victoria, Australia, and to assess the effect on that trajectory of reformulation of oxycodone to a form that could not be easily snorted or injected. Design Interrupted time-series analyses of population-level data before versus after reformulation of oxycodone, stratified by sex. Setting Victoria, Australia. Participants The population of Victoria aged 12+ years. Measurements Ambulance patient care and emergency department (ED) records were examined using both fixed-code and free-text fields, with each record manually cleaned and checked by trained coders. These were used to derive the output variables providing an index of harm: rates of opioid-related ambulance attendances and ED attendances for pharmaceutical opioids and heroin. The input variable was pre- versus post-oxycodone reformulation. Findings There were 30 045 opioid-related ambulance attendances from January 2012 to October 2018 (54% heroin-related), and 10 113 ED attendances from July 2008 to June 2018 (39% heroin-related). There was an increase in the rate (events per 100 000 people per year) of all opioid ED attendances from 2008 to 2018 [increase = 0.063; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.049, 0.078]. Pharmaceutical opioid ED attendances decreased from 2014 onwards (slope change = -0.083; 95% CI = -0.108, -0.059). Heroin-related ED attendances increased from 2014 to 2018; 11 324 heroin-related ambulance attendances and 1980 ED attendances were observed from April 2014 to June 2018, compared with the respective estimates of 8176, and 1661 had the pre-April 2014 trend continued (ambulance slope change = 0.296, 95% CI = 0.104, 0.489; ED slope change = 0.026, 95% CI = 0.005, 0.046). The inflection point of 2014 coincided with the re-formulation of oxycodone. Conclusion In Victoria, Australia, there appears to have been a trend starting around mid-2014 of increasing heroin-related harm, and a flattening of the increase or a decrease of harms relating to pharmaceutical opioids. These changes may, in part, reflect reformulation of oxycodone to reduce the extent to which it can be injected or snorted.

Background Sleep disturbances are among the top-ten warning signs for suicide, however there has been limited investigation of the relationship between these variables in acute presentations, particularly community settings. We examined ambulance attendances for suicide ideation and attempt to explore the role of sleep and co-morbid factors (mental health symptoms, attendance time, and alcohol and benzodiazepine use). Methods Coded clinical records from Ambulance Victoria for the period 1 January 2012 to 30 June 2017 were analysed. Results Paramedics attended 97,198 cases of suicidal ideation or suicide attempt during the study period. Just over half (56.4%) of these were for suicidal ideation, and 43.6% were for attempted suicide. Depression symptomology-related attendances were more common than those for anxiety and despite a lower proportion of both sleep and current anxiety-related symptoms, benzodiazepine use was significantly more common in attendances for suicide attempts (25.9%) than for ideation (2.2%). Co-morbid benzodiazepine use was associated with attempted suicide (OR: 10.37 (10.04–10.72), in a hierarchical regression model. Limitations Data represent self-report/paramedic observation only, and do include validated measures of sleep or drug use. Sleep disturbance is likely under recorded in ambulance attendances given the primary role of paramedics is to stabilise patients, and minimise risk of harm during transport. Conclusion This study reports internationally unique data, and provides the first examination of ambulance coded clinical records for suicide ideation and attempt. Sleep disturbances had a unique role in these attendances, over and above common co-occurring factors including drug use and mental health diagnoses.

This chapter acknowledges the successes in child protection as well as the weaknesses and limitations that need to be addressed through the development of public health approaches. The child protection intervention framework is problematized as not delivering well enough the aims it has espoused. Global perspectives and historical developments are explored, including the similarities and differences found among approaches around the globe. We explore the difficulties experienced by contemporary systems such as: institutional and system processes and responses; dealing with poverty and neglect; the stigma associated with statutory interventions; the negative impacts of child abuse and neglect upon children, families and communities; the increasing system costs; the changing social constructions of childhood and maltreatment; the challenges of evaluating systemic outcomes and efficacy; and reform processes in child protection. This chapter challenges the philosophical underpinnings of child protection approaches and argues for reform of them through public health approaches that promote earlier intervention and prevention strategies.

This chapter highlights methodological and practical issues in data integrity and the role of data in a public health model. It considers definitional issues of child maltreatment and how this influences measurement of the incidence/prevalence of maltreatment by the inclusion or omission of individuals from databases. This chapter considers the challenges of administrative data, mortality data and child death reviews and using cross-sectional national studies, survey data. It discusses the strengths and limitations of use of administrative data sets (for example child protection, and health datasets) – in isolation as single sources of information and by linking these datasets to identify and measure associations with known and potentially unknown risk indicators.

This chapter summarises the major themes and key messages presented in the book and explores the new and emerging opportunities described by contributing authors. It pulls together the critical issues that are likely to continue to beset the development and implementation of public health approaches and system reform processes. The major learnings thus far are highlighted and some of the possible directions in program and service development are explored for their application across various jurisdictions. The key features and principles for designing and implementing public health approaches are outlined and the issues stemming from these examined with respect to addressing the imperatives of involving all stakeholders, including end users and especially children, in the development of new initiatives and reforms.

It is not known if there are discernible patterns in method lethality over successive episodes of self–harm and, if so, how these may be differentially associated with risks of self–harm repetition and suicide. Latent trajectory modelling estimated variation in patterns of suicide attempt lethality in 1,719 individuals attended by ambulance services on at least three occasions between 2012 and 2016. Cox regression modelling investigated hazards of suicide attempt repetition, all–cause, and suicide mortality as a function of these patterns. Two distinct trajectories provided optimal fit (BIC: –39,464.92). The first (Low/Moderate to Low/Moderate Lethality group; 92.5%) consisted of those consistently using methods associated with low to moderate potential lethality throughout the observation period. The second (High to Low/Moderate Lethality group; 7.5%) consisted of those who initially used methods with higher potential lethality but who switched to methods characterised by lower lethality. There were no significant differences between groups in the hazards of reattempting suicide (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 1.41, 95% CI 0.76 to 2.59) or all–cause mortality (HR = 1.21, 95% CI 0.63 to 2.32). However, those assigned to the High to Low/Moderate Lethality trajectory group may be at greater risk of suicide (Sub–Hazard Ratio [SHR] = 2.82, 95% CI 1.16 to 6.86). There may be discernible sub–groups of patients with important differences in clinical treatment needs and suicide risk profiles. These differences should be considered when undertaking psychosocial risk/needs assessments with those presenting to clinical services following self-harm.

Background Unacceptably high staff turnover has plagued traditional approaches to child protection, seemingly forever. Around the globe, numerous studies, reports and inquiries have highlighted how statutory agencies, focusing on risk-oriented investigations of suspected maltreatment, experience significant issues with worker stress and its occupational and organisational consequences. Yet, promoting staff resilience within child protection agencies’ workforces has proved to be quite elusive at a systems level. While concern about child protection services often centers on the children and families agencies they intend to assist, the experiences of workers within the system provide further evidence that the system is itself failing. As a result, governments around the world are increasingly embracing system reforms that promote public health approaches focusing on early intervention and prevention to build child, family and neighbourhood support capacity and resilience and thereby reduce child maltreatment. Objective We review the workforce issues affecting traditional child protection approaches and its impacts. In light of this, we examine the knowledge to be applied in the development of public health approaches that embrace integrated and coordinated systems of community care. Such reforms, with altered organisational remits that are far broader than narrow tertiary responses of investigation and removal, utilize evidence-based interventions targeted at differentiated risk and service user needs to provide effective supports and reduce maltreatment. This article unpacks the strategies needed to build and properly prepare a re-tooled workforce capable of implementing a public health model of preventive interventions. Participants and setting Not applicable. Methods Current public health reforms are examined through the lens of their potential impacts upon contemporary workforce issues. Focusing upon building a stable, resilient and appropriately skilled workforce for a public health model, we examine the implications for key stakeholders including workers, program and organisational leaders, educators, researchers, academics and community members, especially children and vulnerable families. Results and conclusions Public health approaches to protecting children seek to provide effective supports and services in timely ways in order to prevent unnecessary statutory interventions, which affect those from cultural and poor communities disproportionately. But remodelling systems to embrace these approaches entails complex practice, program, policy and legislative changes, using evidence to intervene in ways that are primarily voluntary rather than coercive. In doing so they provide potential to recast the basis of the helping relationship to attend better to the relational aspects of changed behaviour. Embedding workforce resilience strategies in reformed systems is necessary to address retention and ensure service effectiveness and responsiveness to the diversity of needs of struggling families and impoverished communities. Thereby, public health approaches are well placed to achieve their true potential.

Self-harm and mental health are inter-related issues that substantially contribute to the global burden of disease. However, measurement of these issues at the population level is problematic. Statistics on suicide can be captured in national cause of death data collected as part of the coroner's review process, however, there is a significant time-lag in the availability of such data, and by definition, these sources do not include non-fatal incidents. Although survey, emergency department, and hospitalisation data present alternative information sources to measure self-harm, such data do not include the richness of information available at the point of incident. This paper describes the mental health and self-harm modules within the National Ambulance Surveillance System (NASS), a unique Australian system for monitoring and mapping mental health and self-harm. Data are sourced from paramedic electronic patient care records provided by Australian state and territory-based ambulance services. A team of specialised research assistants use a purpose-built system to manually scrutinise and code these records. Specific details of each incident are coded, including mental health symptoms and relevant risk indicators, as well as the type, intent, and method of self-harm. NASS provides almost 90 output variables related to self-harm (i.e., type of behaviour, self-injurious intent, and method) and mental health (e.g., mental health symptoms) in the 24 hours preceding each attendance, as well as demographics, temporal and geospatial characteristics, clinical outcomes, co-occurring substance use, and self-reported medical and psychiatric history. NASS provides internationally unique data on self-harm and mental health, with direct implications for translational research, public policy, and clinical practice. This methodology could be replicated in other countries with universal ambulance service provision to inform health policy and service planning.

Background Synthetic cannabinoid receptor agonists (SCRAs) have been challenging current drug policy due to the rapid emergence of new variants, and their propensity for acute harm. In Australia, as in other parts of the world, multiple regulatory changes have occurred in response to these new psychoactive compounds, and population surveys indicate use is declining. This suggests that related harms would also be declining. We examined the impact of drug legislative changes on acute SCRA-related harms resulting in ambulance attendance. Secondary aims were to describe patient and attendance characteristics. Methods A retrospective analysis of coded ambulance attendance data from Victoria, Australia (January 2014-December 2018). Interrupted time-series was used to analyse the trajectories of SCRA-related attendances relative to legislative changes. Results During the study period, 3727 SCRA-related ambulance attendances were identified. There was an upward trend in attendances following legislation scheduling specific SCRAs in Victoria in October 2016 (slope = 1.31, 95% CI 1.17, 1.45). A downward trend in attendances followed ‘blanket’ legislation targeting all new psychoactive substances, implemented in Victoria in November 2017 (slope = -1.87, 95% CI -2.27, -1.46). Patient median age was 33 years, 80.5% were male, co-occurring substance use was identified in 30.4% cases, and 15.2% had >1 SCRA-related attendance. Overall, 69.4% cases were transported to hospital, with the odds of transport to hospital increasing each year from 2016. Conclusion This study represents a population-level examination of the impact of drug policy on acute SCRA-related harms resulting in ambulance attendance. Scheduling of specific SCRAs was associated with a spike in attendances, likely due to the introduction of more harmful variants in the drug market. Blanket legislation was associated with a reduction in SCRA-related attendances, however, a corresponding increase in cases transported to hospital indicates a greater severity of harm that may have been inadvertently promoted by this policy.

Background This study describes the frequency and characteristics of aggression and/or violence in ambulance attendances involving alcohol, illicit and/or pharmaceutical drug use in Victoria, Australia between January 2012 and January 2017. Methods Patient characteristics, context, and substance use involvement in ambulance attendances were examined to determine associations with attendances where aggression and/or violence was recorded. Results There were 205,178 ambulance attendances where use of alcohol, pharmaceutical drugs or illicit substances contributed to the reason for the attendance. Paramedics recorded acts of aggression and/or violence in 11,813 (5.76 %) of these attendances. Aggression/violence was more likely to be recorded in certain contexts. Compared with attendances where aggression/violence was not recorded, attendances where aggression/violence was recorded were significantly more likely to involve younger and male patients, and occur on Friday and Saturday nights. Alcohol intoxication was involved in more than half of attendances where aggression/violence was recorded, and was almost twice as prevalent as those involving illicit drug use where aggression/violence was recorded. This pattern was consistent across all hours, high-alcohol hours only, by metropolitan/regional location, and by police co-attendance. Conclusions Aggression and violence are frequently recorded in ambulance attendances involving alcohol, pharmaceutical drugs or illicit substances, and, most often involve alcohol. This violence poses a recurring threat to the health and safety of paramedics, bystanders, and patients. Greater priority should be given to reducing alcohol-related violence through evidence-based policy measures targeting high-risk groups (e.g. young adult males) and contexts (e.g. weekends, late at night) where harm is most likely to occur.

Many population data sources do not routinely collect data of children under 12, despite research showing that mental health, self-injurious behaviour, and substance ingestion can have severe consequences in this age group. We used 6 years (January 2012 to December 2017) of ambulance attendance data from the Australian state of Victoria to characterise mental health, self-injurious behaviour, and substance ingestion in children aged 7&ndash, 11. We compared this group to older children aged 12&ndash, 17. We found that in comparison to those aged 12&ndash, 17 (n = 26,778), a smaller number of children aged 7&ndash, 11 years (n = 1558) were experiencing serious harms, with mental health symptomology the most common harmful outcome. Self-injurious behaviour significantly increased in both age groups throughout the study period. For mental health, self-injurious behaviour and substance ingestion in the 7&ndash, 11 age group, males were significantly over-represented. These aged 7&ndash, 11 were more likely to ingest pharmaceuticals, rather than alcohol or illicit substances, and suicidal ideation was the most common self-injurious behaviour in this age group. Our study suggests that data collection needs to occur specifically in the 7&ndash, 11 age group, and importantly, services and interventions to improve mental health and wellbeing will need to be specifically designed and targeted at this age group.

Child death reviews are conducted with the aim of preventing child deaths however, definitions, inclusion criteria for the review of child deaths and reporting practices vary across Child Death Review Teams (CDRTs). This article aims to identify a common context and understanding of fatal neglect reporting by reviewing definitional issues of fatal neglect and comparing reporting practice across a number of CDRTs. Providing a consistent context for identifying and reporting neglect-related deaths may improve the understanding of the impact of fatal neglect and the risk factors associated with it and therefore, improve the potential of CDRT review to inform prevention programs, policies, and procedures.

Objective To compare changes in pregabalin prescribing and misuse-related ambulance attendances; to characterise the patients attended by paramedics for pregabalin misuse-related harms; to assess the association of pregabalin misuse with use of other sedatives and with suicidal ideation and self-harm; to compare the characteristics of pregabalin misuse-related harms in people who misuse pregabalin according to whether or not they also used other sedatives. Design, setting, participants Retrospective analysis of data on ambulance attendances in Victoria, January 2012 - December 2017, for which pregabalin misuse-related harms were a contributing factor. Main outcome measures Rates of pregabalin misuse-related ambulance attendances, pregabalin prescription rates (each 6-monthly); patient characteristics, including age, sex, history of drug misuse or psychiatric problems, concurrent use of other sedatives, and current suicidal ideation and self-harm. Results There were 1201 pregabalin misuse-related attendances during the study period; the rate increased from 0.28 cases per 100 000 population in the first half of 2012 to 3.32 cases per 100 000 in the second half of 2017. The attendance rate was strongly correlated with prescription rates in Australia (r = 0.90; P = 0.001). 593 attendances (49%) were for people with a history that may have contraindicated prescribing pregabalin. Pregabalin was frequently misused with other sedatives (812 attendances, 68%), particularly benzodiazepines (440, 37%); 472 attendances (39%) were associated with suicide attempts. People who misused pregabalin with other sedatives more frequently presented with moderate to severe impairments of consciousness, but the frequency of suicide attempts was similar whether other sedatives were concurrently used or not. Conclusions Rates of pregabalin misuse-related ambulance attendances in Victoria have increased markedly over the past 6 years. Caution is required when prescribing pregabalin for people taking other sedatives. Limiting the dispensing of this drug may reduce the risks associated with its misuse.