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Clinical decisions are often guided by clinical prediction models or diagnostic tests. Decision curve analysis (DCA) combines classical assessment of predictive performance with the consequences of using these strategies for clinical decision‐making. In DCA, the best decision strategy is the one that maximizes the net benefit: the net number of true positives (or negatives) provided by a given strategy. Here, we employ Bayesian approaches to DCA, addressing four fundamental concerns when evaluating clinical decision strategies: (i) which strategies are clinically useful, (ii) what is the best available decision strategy, (iii) which of two competing strategies is better, and (iv) what is the expected net benefit loss associated with the current level of uncertainty. While often consistent with frequentist point estimates, fully Bayesian DCA allows for an intuitive probabilistic interpretation framework and the incorporation of prior evidence. We evaluate the methods using simulation and provide a comprehensive case study. Software implementation is available in the bayesDCA R package. Ultimately, the Bayesian DCA workflow may help clinicians and health policymakers adopt better‐informed decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) affects approximately one in five individuals with psoriasis. Early identification of patients with psoriasis at risk of developing PsA is crucial to prevent poor prognosis. We established a derivation cohort comprising 1,661 patients with psoriasis from 49 hospitals. Clinical and demographic variables ascertained at hospital admission were screened using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator and logistic regression to construct a prediction model and a new web-based calculator. Ultimately, six significant independent predictors were identified: history of unexplained swollen joints (odds ratio [OR]: 5.814, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 3.304–10.117; p< 0.001), history of arthritis (OR: 3.543, 95% CI: 1.982–6.246; p< 0.001), history of unexplained swollen and painful fingers or toes (OR: 2.707, 95% CI: 1.463–4.915; p = 0.001), nail involvement (OR: 1.907, 95% CI: 1.235–2.912; p = 0.003), hyperlipidemia (OR: 4.265, 95% CI: 0.921–15.493; p = 0.042), and prolonged topical use of glucocorticosteroids (OR: 1.581, 95% CI: 1.052–2.384, p = 0.028). The web-based calculator derived from this model can assist clinicians in promptly determining the probability of developing PsA in patients with psoriasis, thereby facilitating improved clinical decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT), which is essential in AMI management, combines aspirin with a P2Y12 receptor antagonist. This study compared the effectiveness of potent P2Y12 inhibitors versus clopidogrel in AMI patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods: 65,986 AMI patients included in a nationwide prospective registry who underwent PCI and received DAPT were studied. In total, 9,014 patients received potent P2Y12 inhibitors, and 56,074 received clopidogrel. This study focused on mortality, recurrent myocardial infarction, stroke, repeat revascularization, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) over seven years. The analysis utilized unadjusted models and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to compare prognosis, and decision curve analyses were constructed to aid clinical decision making. Results: Potent P2Y12 inhibitors significantly reduced mortality risk (unadjusted hazard ratio (HR): 0.58; IPTW HR: 0.68) and MACE (unadjusted HR: 0.66; IPTW HR: 0.78). Diabetic patients showed greater benefits (HR:0.45). In patients at high bleeding risk, the mortality rate was 13% (HR: 0.87, p = 0.08). For patients aged 75–79, the HR for mortality was 0.82, whereas for those aged >80 years, it was 0.79, indicating significant mortality risk reduction. Similar trends were observed for MACE. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that potent P2Y12 inhibitors are more effective than clopidogrel in reducing mortality and MACE in patients with AMI and underscored their potential role in improving outcomes across diverse patient subgroups. The trend was consistent even during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings highlight the need for personalized DAPT strategies, particularly for high-bleeding-risk patients, and challenge current guidelines favoring clopidogrel use in older patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Brain resection is curative for a subset of patients with drug resistant epilepsy but up to half will fail to achieve sustained seizure freedom in the long term. There is a critical need for accurate prediction tools to identify patients likely to have recurrent postoperative seizures. Results from preclinical models and intracranial EEG in humans suggest that the window of time immediately before and after a seizure (“peri-ictal”) represents a unique brain state with implications for clinical outcome prediction. Using a dataset of 294 patients who underwent temporal lobe resection for seizures, we show that machine learning classifiers can make accurate predictions of postoperative seizure outcome using 5 min of peri-ictal scalp EEG data that is part of universal presurgical evaluation (AUC 0.98, out-of-group testing accuracy > 90%). This is the first approach to seizure outcome prediction that employs a routine non-invasive preoperative study (scalp EEG) with accuracy range likely to translate into a clinical tool. Decision curve analysis (DCA) shows that compared to the prevalent clinical-variable based nomogram, use of the EEG-augmented approach could decrease the rate of unsuccessful brain resections by 20%.

Abstract Background The proximal femur is a common site of bone metastasis. The Mirels’ score is a frequently utilized system to identify patients at risk for pathologic fracture and while it has consistently demonstrated strong sensitivity, specificity has been relatively poor. Our group previously developed a Modified Mirels’ scoring system which demonstrated improved ability to predict cases at risk of fracture in this patient population through modification of the Mirels’ location score. The purpose of the present study is to internally validate this newly developed scoring system on an independent patient series. Methods Retrospective review was performed to identify patients who were evaluated for proximal femoral bone lesions. Patients were stratified into one of two groups: 1) those who went on to fracture within 4 months after initial evaluation (Fracture Group) and 2) those who did not fracture within 4 months of initial evaluation (No Fracture Group). Retrospective chart review was performed to assign an Original Mirels’ (OM) Score and Modified Mirels’ (MM) score to each patient at the time of initial evaluation. Descriptive statistics, logistic regression, receiver operating curve, and net benefit analyses were performed to determine the predictability of fractures when utilizing both scoring systems. Results The use of the MM scoring improved fracture prediction over OM scoring for patients observed over a 4 month follow up based on logistic regression. Decision curve analysis showed that there was a net benefit using the MM score over the OM scoring for a full range of fracture threshold probabilities. Fracture prevalence was similar for current internal validation dataset when compared to the dataset of our index study with a comparable reduction in misclassification of fracture prediction when utilizing the modified scoring system versus the original. Conclusions Use of MM scoring was found to improve fracture prediction over OM scoring when tested on an internal validation set of patients with disseminated metastatic lesions to the proximal femur. The improvement in fracture prediction demonstrated in the present study mirrored the results of our index study during which the MM system was developed.

Abstract This study aims to enhance the effectiveness of high resolution manometry (HRM) and pH-impedance monitoring metrics in distinguishing between gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD) and non-GERD. A retrospective propensity score matching (PSM) study was conducted on 643 patients with GERD symptoms. PSM matched 134 GERD patients with 134 non-GERD controls. Body mass index (BMI), intra-esophageal pressure (IEP) and intra-gastric pressure (IGP) were significantly higher in the GERD group compared to the non-GERD group. BMI was correlated with IEP and IGP positively. IGP was positively correlated with esophagogastric (EGJ) pressure (EGJ-P) in participants with EGJ type 1 and 2, but not in participants with EGJ type 3. BMI was correlated with distal MNBI negatively. Logistic regression showed BMI as an independent risk factor for GERD. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that BMI adjusted EGJ contractile integral (EGJ-CI) and BMI adjusted MNBI were superior to the corresponding original ones in predicting GERD susceptibility. According to the findings, BMI and IGP are the main factors contributing to the development of GERD. BMI affects IEP through the adaptive response of EGJ-P to IGP. Incorporating BMI into the calculations of EGJ-CI and MNBI can improve their ability in predicting GERD susceptibility.

Background: For patients with breast cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT), most of the existing prediction models of pathologic complete response (pCR) using clinicopathological features were based on standard statistical models like logistic regression, while models based on machine learning mostly utilized imaging data and/or gene expression data. This study aims to develop a robust and accessible machine learning model to predict pCR using clinicopathological features alone, which can be used to facilitate clinical decision-making in diverse settings. Methods: The model was developed and validated within the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB, 2018–2020) and an external cohort at the University of Chicago (2010–2020). We compared logistic regression and machine learning models, and examined whether incorporating quantitative clinicopathological features improved model performance. Decision curve analysis was conducted to assess the model's clinical utility. Results: We identified 56,209 NCDB patients receiving NACT (pCR rate: 34.0%). The machine learning model incorporating quantitative clinicopathological features showed the best discrimination performance among all the fitted models [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC): 0.785, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.778–0.792], along with outstanding calibration performance. The model performed best among patients with hormone receptor positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative (HR+/HER2-) breast cancer (AUC: 0.817, 95% CI: 0.802–0.832); and by adopting a 7% prediction threshold, the model achieved 90.5% sensitivity and 48.8% specificity, with decision curve analysis finding a 23.1% net reduction in chemotherapy use. In the external testing set of 584 patients (pCR rate: 33.4%), the model maintained robust performance both overall (AUC: 0.711, 95% CI: 0.668–0.753) and in the HR+/HER2- subgroup (AUC: 0.810, 95% CI: 0.742–0.878). Conclusions: The study developed a machine learning model (https://huolab.cri.uchicago.edu/sample-apps/pcrmodel) to predict pCR in breast cancer patients undergoing NACT that demonstrated robust discrimination and calibration performance. The model performed particularly well among patients with HR+/HER2- breast cancer, having the potential to identify patients who are less likely to achieve pCR and can consider alternative treatment strategies over chemotherapy. The model can also serve as a robust baseline model that can be integrated with smaller datasets containing additional granular features in future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brain resection is curative for a subset of patients with drug resistant epilepsy but up to half will fail to achieve sustained seizure freedom in the long term. There is a critical need for accurate prediction tools to identify patients likely to have recurrent postoperative seizures. Results from preclinical models and intracranial EEG in humans suggest that the window of time immediately before and after a seizure (“peri-ictal”) represents a unique brain state with implications for clinical outcome prediction. Using a dataset of 294 patients who underwent temporal lobe resection for seizures, we show that machine learning classifiers can make accurate predictions of postoperative seizure outcome using 5 min of peri-ictal scalp EEG data that is part of universal presurgical evaluation (AUC 0.98, out-of-group testing accuracy > 90%). This is the first approach to seizure outcome prediction that employs a routine non-invasive preoperative study (scalp EEG) with accuracy range likely to translate into a clinical tool. Decision curve analysis (DCA) shows that compared to the prevalent clinical-variable based nomogram, use of the EEG-augmented approach could decrease the rate of unsuccessful brain resections by 20%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The proximal femur is a common site of bone metastasis. The Mirels' score is a frequently utilized system to identify patients at risk for pathologic fracture and while it has consistently demonstrated strong sensitivity, specificity has been relatively poor. Our group previously developed a Modified Mirels' scoring system which demonstrated improved ability to predict cases at risk of fracture in this patient population through modification of the Mirels' location score. The purpose of the present study is to internally validate this newly developed scoring system on an independent patient series. Methods: Retrospective review was performed to identify patients who were evaluated for proximal femoral bone lesions. Patients were stratified into one of two groups: 1) those who went on to fracture within 4 months after initial evaluation (Fracture Group) and 2) those who did not fracture within 4 months of initial evaluation (No Fracture Group). Retrospective chart review was performed to assign an Original Mirels' (OM) Score and Modified Mirels' (MM) score to each patient at the time of initial evaluation. Descriptive statistics, logistic regression, receiver operating curve, and net benefit analyses were performed to determine the predictability of fractures when utilizing both scoring systems. Results: The use of the MM scoring improved fracture prediction over OM scoring for patients observed over a 4 month follow up based on logistic regression. Decision curve analysis showed that there was a net benefit using the MM score over the OM scoring for a full range of fracture threshold probabilities. Fracture prevalence was similar for current internal validation dataset when compared to the dataset of our index study with a comparable reduction in misclassification of fracture prediction when utilizing the modified scoring system versus the original. Conclusions: Use of MM scoring was found to improve fracture prediction over OM scoring when tested on an internal validation set of patients with disseminated metastatic lesions to the proximal femur. The improvement in fracture prediction demonstrated in the present study mirrored the results of our index study during which the MM system was developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the early and accurate identification of patients at risk of deterioration was crucial in overcrowded and resource-limited emergency departments. This study conducts an external validation for the evaluation of the performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), the S/F ratio, and the ROX index at ED admission in a large cohort of COVID-19 patients from Colombia, South America, assessing the net clinical benefit with decision curve analysis. A prospective cohort study was conducted on 6907 adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to a tertiary care ED in Colombia. The study evaluated the diagnostic performance of NEWS2, S/F ratio, and ROX index scores at ED admission using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis for the prediction of intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital mortality. We included 6907 patients who presented to the ED with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from March 2020 to November 2021. Mean age was 51 (35–65) years and 50.4% of patients were males. The rate of intensive care unit admission was 28%, and in-hospital death was 9.8%. All three scores have good discriminatory performance for the three outcomes based on the AUROC. S/F ratio showed miscalibration at low predicted probabilities and decision curve analysis indicated that the NEWS2 score provided a greater net benefit compared to other scores across at a 10% threshold to decide ED admission at a high-level of care facility. The NEWS2, S/F ratio, and ROX index at ED admission have good discriminatory performances in COVID-19 patients for the prediction of adverse outcomes, but the NEWS2 score has a higher net benefit underscoring its clinical utility in optimizing patient management and resource allocation in emergency settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This study sought to validate the Rossi nomogram in a Chinese population and then to include the Bishop score to see if it has an effect on the accuracy of the nomogram. Materials and methods: The Rossi predictive model was applied and externally validated in a retrospective cohort from August 2017 and July 2023 in a Chinese tertiary-level medical center. For the revision and updating of the models, the regression coefficients of all the predictors (except race) were re-estimated and then the cervical Bishop score at the time of induction was added. Each model's performance was measured using the receiver-operating characteristic and calibration plots. Decision curve analysis determined the range of the probability threshold for each prediction model that would be of clinical value. Results: A total of 721 women met the inclusion criteria, of whom 183 (25.4%) underwent a cesarean delivery. The calibration demonstrated the underestimation of the original model, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.789 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.753–0.825, p < 0.001). After recalibrating the original model, the discriminative performance was improved from 0.789 to 0.803. Moreover, the discriminatory power of the updated model was further improved when the Bishop score at the time of induction was added to the recalibrated multivariable model. Indeed, the updated model demonstrated good calibration and discriminatory power, with an AUC of 0.811. The decision curve analysis indicated that all the models (original, recalibrated, and updated) provided higher net benefits of between 0 and 60% of the probability threshold, which indicates the benefits of using the models to make decisions concerning patients who fall within the identified range of the probability threshold. The net benefits of the updated model were higher than those of the original model and the recalibrated model. Conclusion: The nomogram used to predict cesarean delivery following induction developed by Rossi et al. has been validated in a Chinese population in this study. More specifically, adaptation to a Chinese population by excluding ethnicity and including the Bishop score prior to induction gave rise to better performance. The three models (original, recalibrated, and updated) offer higher net benefits when the probability threshold is between 0 and 60%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) affects approximately one in five individuals with psoriasis. Early identification of patients with psoriasis at risk of developing PsA is crucial to prevent poor prognosis. We established a derivation cohort comprising 1,661 patients with psoriasis from 49 hospitals. Clinical and demographic variables ascertained at hospital admission were screened using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator and logistic regression to construct a prediction model and a new web-based calculator. Ultimately, six significant independent predictors were identified: history of unexplained swollen joints (odds ratio [OR]: 5.814, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 3.304–10.117; p< 0.001), history of arthritis (OR: 3.543, 95% CI: 1.982–6.246; p< 0.001), history of unexplained swollen and painful fingers or toes (OR: 2.707, 95% CI: 1.463–4.915; p = 0.001), nail involvement (OR: 1.907, 95% CI: 1.235–2.912; p = 0.003), hyperlipidemia (OR: 4.265, 95% CI: 0.921–15.493; p = 0.042), and prolonged topical use of glucocorticosteroids (OR: 1.581, 95% CI: 1.052–2.384, p = 0.028). The web-based calculator derived from this model can assist clinicians in promptly determining the probability of developing PsA in patients with psoriasis, thereby facilitating improved clinical decision-making.

Abstract Background To develop and evaluate a predictive nomogram for polyuria during general anesthesia in thoracic surgery. Methods A retrospective study was designed and performed. The whole dataset was used to develop the predictive nomogram and used a stepwise algorithm to screen variables. The stepwise algorithm was based on Akaike’s information criterion (AIC). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop the nomogram. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the model’s discrimination ability. The Hosmer–Lemeshow (HL) test was performed to check if the model was well calibrated. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to measure the nomogram’s clinical usefulness and net benefits. P

Background: Cervical squamous cell carcinoma and endocervical adenocarcinoma (CESC) are among the most prevalent gynecologic malignancies globally. The prognosis is abysmal once cervical cancer progresses to lymphatic metastasis. Anoikis, a specialized form of apoptosis induced by loss of cell adhesion to the extracellular matrix, plays a critical role. The prediction model based on anoikis-related genes (ARGs) expression and clinical data could greatly aid clinical decision-making. However, the relationship between ARGs and CESC remains unclear. Methods: ARGs curated from the GeneCards and Harmonizome portals were instrumental in delineating CESC subtypes and in developing a prognostic framework for patients afflicted with this condition. We further delved into the intricacies of the immune microenvironment and pathway enrichment across the identified subtypes. Finally, our efforts culminated in the creation of an innovative nomogram that integrates ARGs. The utility of this prognostic tool was underscored by Decision Curve Analysis (DCA), which illuminate its prospective benefits in guiding clinical interventions. Results: In our study, We discerned a set of 17 survival-pertinent, anoikis-related differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in CESC, from which nine were meticulously selected for the construction of prognostic models. The derived prognostic risk score was subsequently validated as an autonomous prognostic determinant. Through comprehensive functional analyses, we observed distinct immune profiles and drug response patterns among divergent prognostic stratifications. Further, we integrated the risk scores with the clinicopathological characteristics of CESC to develop a robust nomogram. DCA corroborated the utility of our model, demonstrating its potential to enhance patient outcomes through tailored clinical treatment strategies. Conclusion: The predictive signature, encompassing nine pivotal genes, alongside the meticulously constructed nomogram developed in this research, furnishes clinicians with a sophisticated tool for tailoring treatment strategies to individual patients diagnosed with CESC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Many medical graduate students lack a thorough understanding of decision curve analysis (DCA), a valuable tool in clinical research for evaluating diagnostic models. Methods This article elucidates the concept and process of DCA through the lens of clinical research practices, exemplified by its application in diagnosing liver cancer using serum alpha-fetoprotein levels and radiomics indices. It covers the calculation of probability thresholds, computation of net benefits for each threshold, construction of decision curves, and comparison of decision curves from different models to identify the one offering the highest net benefit. Results The paper provides a detailed explanation of DCA, including the creation and comparison of decision curves, and discusses the relationship and differences between decision curves and receiver operating characteristic curves. It highlights the superiority of decision curves in supporting clinical decision-making processes. Conclusion By clarifying the concept of DCA and highlighting its benefits in clinical decisionmaking, this article has improved researchers' comprehension of how DCA is applied and interpreted, thereby enhancing the quality of research in the medical field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a significant complication in burn patients, impacting outcomes substantially. This study explores the heterogeneity of AKI in burn patients by analyzing creatinine time-series data to identify distinct AKI clusters and evaluating routine biomarkers' predictive values. A retrospective cohort analysis was performed on 2608 adult burn patients admitted to Hangang Sacred Heart Hospital's Burn Intensive Care Unit (BICU) from July 2010 to December 2022. Patients were divided into four clusters based on creatinine trajectories, ranging from high-risk, severe cases to lower-risk, short-term care cases. Cluster A, characterized by high-risk, severe cases, showed the highest mortality and severity, with significant predictors being PT and TB. Cluster B, representing intermediate recovery cases, highlighted PT and albumin as useful predictors. Cluster C, a low-risk, high-resilience group, demonstrated predictive values for cystatin C and eGFR cys. Cluster D, comprising lower-risk, short-term care patients, indicated the importance of PT and lactate. Key biomarkers, including albumin, prothrombin time (PT), cystatin C, eGFR cys, and total bilirubin (TB), were identified as significant predictors of AKI development, varying across clusters. Diagnostic accuracy was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) metrics, reclassification metrics (NRI and IDI), and decision curve analysis. Cystatin C and eGFR cys consistently provided significant predictive value over creatinine, with AUC values significantly higher (p < 0.05) in each cluster. This study highlights the need for a tailored, biomarker-driven approach to AKI management in burn patients, advocating for the integration of diverse biomarkers in clinical practice to facilitate personalized treatment strategies. Future research should validate these biomarkers prospectively to confirm their clinical utility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt is widely acknowledged as a treatment option for managing intracranial hypertension resulting from non-human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) cryptococcal meningitis (CM). Nonetheless, there is currently no consensus on the appropriate surgical indications for this procedure. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct a preoperative evaluation of patient characteristics and predict the outcome of the VP shunt to guide clinical treatment effectively. A retrospective analysis was conducted on data from 85 patients with non-HIV CM who underwent VP shunt surgery at our hospital. The analysis involved studying demographic data, preoperative clinical manifestations, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) characteristics, and surgical outcomes and comparisons between before and after surgery. A nomogram was developed and evaluated. The therapy outcomes of 71 patients improved, whereas 14 cases had worse outcomes. Age, preoperative cryptococcus count, and preoperative CSF protein levels were found to influence the surgical outcome. The nomogram exhibited exceptional predictive performance (area under the curve = 0.896, 95% confidence interval: 0.8292–0.9635). Internal validation confirmed the nomogram's excellent predictive capabilities. Moreover, decision curve analysis demonstrated the nomogram's practical clinical utility. The surgical outcome of VP shunt procedures patients with non-HIV CM was associated with age, preoperative cryptococcal count, and preoperative CSF protein levels. We developed a nomogram that can be used to predict surgical outcomes in patients with non-HIV CM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the use of clinical trial enrichment to improve the success of trials targeting patients who receive mechanical ventilation. Enrichment involves identifying a more homogeneous population with a higher likelihood of benefiting from a potentially risky therapy. The authors propose using machine learning methods to identify patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure (HRF) who are likely to persist on mechanical ventilation, as persistent ventilation increases the risk of poor outcomes. They present a framework for utilizing machine learning methods for trial enrichment and demonstrate the potential benefits and limitations of this approach. However, it is important to consider the patients who would not be included in an enriched trial and to assess the broader population before implementing this model in clinical practice. [Extracted from the article]

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BackgroundHypoalbuminemia is a common complication in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is associated with various adverse clinical events. Currently, there are few studies focused on identifying risk factors and constructing models for hypoalbuminemia in patients with CKD stages 3 and 4. This study aims to identify independent risk factors for hypoalbuminemia in patients with CKD stages 3 and 4 and construct a nomogram for predicting the risk of hypoalbuminemia in these patients.MethodsA total of 237 patients with CKD stages 3 and 4 treated at Anning First People’s Hospital from January to December 2023 were included. Univariate and bidirectional stepwise multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for hypoalbuminemia in these patients. Based on the results of logistic regression analyses, a nomogram was constructed. The model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis.ResultsHemoglobin, red blood cells, serum sodium, and serum calcium were identified as independent risk factors for hypoalbuminemia in these patients. The contributions of each independent risk factor to hypoalbuminemia were visualized in a nomogram. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of the model was 0.819, indicating good discrimination. The calibration curves showed good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes. The decision curve analysis also verified that the model had the good clinical utility.ConclusionHemoglobin, red blood cells, serum sodium, and serum calcium were identified as independent risk factors of hypoalbuminemia in patients with CKD stages 3 and 4. The nomogram exhibits good discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility, offering a reliable tool for the early prediction and identification of hypoalbuminemia in these patients.

Background: Data regarding risk factors for premature coronary artery disease (PCAD) is scarce given that few research focus on it. This study aimed to develop and validate a clinical nomogram for PCAD patients in Guangzhou. Methods: We recruited 108 PCAD patients (female ≤65 years old and male ≤55 years old) and 96 healthy controls from Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between 01/01/2021 and 31/12/2022. Twenty potentially relevant indicators of PCAD were extracted. Next, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was used to optimize variable selection. The nomogram was developed based on the selected variables visually. Results: Independent risk factors, including body mass index (BMI), history of PCAD, glucose, Apolipoprotein A1(ApoA1), high density lipoprotein 2-cholesterol (HDL2-C), total cholesterol and triglyceride, were identified by LASSO and logistic regression analysis. The nomogram showed accurate discrimination (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, ROC, 87.45 %, 95 % CI: 82.58 %-92.32 %). Decision curve analysis (DCA) suggested that the nomogram was clinical beneficial. HDL2, one risk factor, was isolated by a two-step discontinuous density-gradient ultracentrifugation method. And HDL2 from PCAD patients exhibited less 3H-cholesterol efflux (22.17 % vs 26.64 %, P

Background Diabetes nephropathy (DN) is a common complication of diabetes patients. The prediction and validation of its risk will help identify high-risk patients in advance and take intervention measures to avoid or delay the progress of nephropathy. Objective To analyze the risk factors affecting the complication of DN in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) , construct a risk prediction model for the risk of DN in T2DM patients and validate it. Methods A total of 5 810 patients with T2DM admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from January 2016 to June 2021 were selected as the study subjects and divided into the DN group (n=481) and non-DN group (n=5 329) according to the complication of DN. A 1∶1 case-control matching was performed on 481 of these DN patients and non-DN patients by gender and age (±2 years) , and the matched 962 T2DM patients were randomly divided into the training group (n=641) and validation group (n=321) based on a 2∶1 ratio. Basic data of patients, such as clinical characteristics, laboratory test results and other related data, were collected. LASSO regression was applied to optimize the screening variables, and a nomogram prediction model was developed using multivariate Logistic regression analysis. The discriminability, calibration and clinical validity of the prediction model were evaluated by using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) , respectively. Results There were significant differences in gender, age, BMI, course of diabetes, white blood cell count, total cholesterol, triacylglycerol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, serum creatinine, hypertension, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, glycosylated hemoglobin, apolipoprotein B, 24-hour urinary micro total protein, qualitative urinary protein between the DN and non-DN group (P

Extracardiac anomalies (ECAs) are strong predictors of genetic disorders in infants with congenital heart disease (CHD), but there are no prior studies assessing performance of ECA status as a screen for genetic diagnoses in CHD patients. This retrospective cohort study assessed this in our comprehensive inpatient CHD genetics service focusing on neonates and infants admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). The performance and diagnostic utility of using ECA status to screen for genetic disorders was assessed using decision curve analysis, a statistical tool to assess clinical utility, determining the threshold of phenotypic screening by ECA versus a Test-All approach. Over 24% of infants had genetic diagnoses identified (n = 244/1013), and ECA-positive status indicated a 4-fold increased risk of having a genetic disorder. However, ECA status had low–moderate screening performance based on predictive summary index, a compositive measure of positive and negative predictive values. For those with genetic diagnoses, nearly one-third (32%, 78/244) were ECA-negative but had cytogenetic and/or monogenic disorders identified by genetic testing. Thus, if the presence of multiple congenital anomalies is the phenotypic driver to initiate genetic testing, 13.4% (78/580) of infants with isolated CHD with identifiable genetic causes will be missed. Given the prevalence of genetic disorders and limited screening performance of ECA status, this analysis supports genetic testing in all CHD infants in intensive care settings rather than screening based on ECA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Over the last few decades, the annual global incidence of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (GEPNETs) has steadily increased. Because of the complex and inconsistent treatment of GEP-NETs, the prognosis of patients with GEPNETs is still difficult to assess. The study aimed to construct and validate the nomograms included treatment data for prediction overall survival (OS) in GEP-NETs patients. Methods: GEP-NETs patients determined from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-13 registry database (1992-2018) and with additional treatment data from the SEER-18 registry database (1975-2016). In order to select independent prognostic factors that contribute significantly to patient survival and can be included in the nomogram, multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed using the minimum value of Akaike information criterion (AIC) and we analyzed the relationship of variables with OS by calculating hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. In addition, we also comprehensively compared the nomogram using to predict OS with the current 7th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. Results: From 2004 to 2015, a total of 42 662 patients at diagnosis years with GEP-NETs were determined from the SEER database. The results indicated that the increasing incidence of GEP-NETs per year and the highest incidence is in patients aged 50-54. After removing cases lacking adequate clinicopathologic characteristics, the remaining eligible patients (n =7564) were randomly divided into training (3782 patients) and testing sets (3782 patients). In the univariate analysis, sex, age, race, tumour location, SEER historic stage, pathology type, TNM, stage, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, and CS tumour size were found to be significantly related to OS. Ultimately, the key factors for predicting OS were determined, involving sex, age, race, tumour location, SEER historic stage, M, N, grade, surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy. For internal validation, the C-index of the nomogram used to estimate OS in the training set was 0.816 (0.804-0.828). For external validation, the concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram used to predict OS was 0.822 (0.812-0.832). In the training and testing sets, our nomogram produced minimum AIC values and C-index of OS compared with AJCC stage. Decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated that the nomogram was better than the AJCC staging system because more clinical net benefits were obtained within a wider threshold probability range. Conclusion: A nomogram combined treatment data may be better discrimination in predicting overall survival than AJCC staging system. The authors highly recommend to use their nomogram to evaluate individual risks based on different clinical features of GEPNETs, which can improve the diagnosis and treatment outcomes of GEP-NETs patients and improve their quality of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To realize the potential of precision medicine, predictive models should be integrated within the framework of decision analysis, such as the decision curve analysis (DCA). To date, its application has required individual patient data (IPD) that are often unavailable. Performing DCA using aggregate data without requiring IPD may advance the goals of precision medicine. Methods: We present a statistical framework demonstrating that DCA can be conducted by using only the mean and standard deviation (SD) from the raw probabilities of the predictive model. We tested our theoretical framework by performing extensive simulations and comparing the aggregate‐based DCA with IPD DCA. The latter was conducted using IPD from four predictive models that employed logistic regression, Cox or competing risk time‐to‐event modeling including (a) statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (n = 4859), (b) hospice referral for terminally ill patients (n = 9104), (c) use of thromboprophylaxis for preventing venous thromboembolism in patients with cancer (n = 425) and (d) prevention of sinusoidal obstruction syndrome after hematopoietic cell transplantation (SCT) (n = 80). Results: Simulations assuming perfect calibration showed that regardless of which probability distributions informed the predictive models, the differences in DCA were negligible. Similarly, for the adequately powered models, the results of DCA based on the summary data were similar to IPD‐derived DCA. The inherent instability of the predictive models, based on the smaller sample sizes, resulted in a somewhat larger discrepancy between aggregate and IPD‐based DCA. Conclusions: DCA informed by adequately powered and well‐calibrated models using only summary statistical estimates (mean and SD) approximates well models using IPD. Use of aggregate data will facilitate broader integration of predictive with decision modeling toward the goals of individualized decision‐making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Study Design: Retrospective cohort study. Objectives: Development, validation, and decision curve analysis of a novel tool (NZSpine) for modelling risk of complications within 30 days of spine surgery. Methods: Data was gathered retrospectively from medical records of patients who underwent spine surgery at a single tertiary centre between January 2019 and December 2020 (n = 488). Postoperative adverse events were classified objectively using the Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI). The model was derived using backward stepwise logistic regression. Validation was undertaken using bootstrap resampling. Discrimination was determined by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC). Calibration was assessed graphically. Clinical utility of the model was assessed using decision curve analysis (DCA). Performance measures were compared to an existing tool, SpineSage. Results: Overall complication rate was 34%. Modelling showed higher age, surgical invasiveness and preoperative anemia were most strongly predictive of any complication (OR = 1.03, 1.09, 2.1 respectively, P <.001), whereas the occurrence of a major complication (CCI >26) was most strongly associated with the presence of respiratory disease (OR = 2.82, P <.001). At validation, the model showed good discrimination with an AUC of.73 (.71 -.75) and excellent calibration. SpineSage had an AUC of.71, while DCA showed the novel model had greater expected benefit at all risk thresholds. Conclusion: NZSpine is a novel risk assessment tool for patients undergoing acute and elective spine surgery and may help inform clinicians and patients of their perioperative risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objective Chronic cough after pulmonary resection is one of the most common complications, which seriously affects the quality of life of patients after surgery. Therefore, the aim of this study is to explore the risk factors of chronic cough after pulmonary resection and construct a prediction model. Methods The clinical data and postoperative cough of 499 patients who underwent pneumonectomy or pulmonary resection in The First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China from January 2021 to June 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were randomly divided into training set (n=348) and validation set (n=151) according to the principle of 7:3 randomization. According to whether the patients in the training set had chronic cough after surgery, they were divided into cough group and non-cough group. The Mandarin Chinese version of Leicester cough questionnare (LCQ-MC) was used to assess the severity of cough and its impact on patients' quality of life before and after surgery. The visual analog scale (VAS) and the self-designed numerical rating scale (NRS) were used to evaluate the postoperative chronic cough. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were used to analyze the independent risk factors and construct a model. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the discrimination of the model, and calibration curve was used to evaluate the consistency of the model. The clinical application value of the model was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Multivariate Logistic analysis screened out that preoperative forced expiratory volume in the first second/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC), surgical procedure, upper mediastinal lymph node dissection, subcarinal lymph node dissection, and postoperative closed thoracic drainage time were independent risk factors for postoperative chronic cough. Based on the results of multivariate analysis, a Nomogram prediction model was constructed. The area under the ROC curve was 0.954 (95%CI: 0.930-0.978), and the cut-off value corresponding to the maximum Youden index was 0.171, with a sensitivity of 94.7% and a specificity of 86.6%. With a Bootstrap sample of 1000 times, the predicted risk of chronic cough after pulmonary resection by the calibration curve was highly consistent with the actual risk. DCA showed that when the preprobability of the prediction model probability was between 0.1 and 0.9, patients showed a positive net benefit. Conclusion Chronic cough after pulmonary resection seriously affects the quality of life of patients. The visual presentation form of the Nomogram is helpful to accurately predict chronic cough after pulmonary resection and provide support for clinical decision-making.

Abstract Backgroud The current diagnostic criteria for refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (RMPP) among Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia (MPP) are insufficient for early identification, and potentially delayed appropriate treatment. This study aimed to develop an effective individualized diagnostic prediction nomogram for pediatric RMPP. Methods A total of 517 hospitalized children with MPP, including 131 with RMPP and 386 without RMPP (non-RMPP), treated at Lianyungang Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital from January 2018 to December 2021 were retrospectively enrolled as a development (modeling) cohort to construct an RMPP prediction nomogram. Additionally, 322 pediatric patients with MPP (64 with RMPP and 258 with non-RMPP, who were treated at the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from June 2020 to May 2022 were retrospectively enrolled as a validation cohort to assess the prediction accuracy of model. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify RMPP risk factors among patients with MPP. Nomogram were generated based on these risk factors using the rms package of R, and the predictive performance was evaluated based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and using decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Multivariate analysis revealed five significant independent predictors of RMPP among patients with MPP: age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08–1.33, P = 0.038), fever duration (HR 1.34, 95%CI 1.20–1.50, P

Abstract Background The absence of distinct symptoms in the majority of individuals with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) poses challenges in identifying those at high risk, so we need simple, efficient and cost-effective noninvasive scores to aid healthcare professionals in patient identification. While most noninvasive scores were developed for the diagnosis of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), consequently, the objective of this study was to systematically assess the diagnostic ability of 12 noninvasive scores (METS-IR/TyG/TyG-WC/TyG-BMI/TyG-WtHR/VAI/HSI/FLI/ZJU/FSI/K-NAFLD) for MAFLD. Methods The study recruited eligible participants from two sources: the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2017-2020.3 cycle and the database of the West China Hospital Health Management Center. The performance of the model was assessed using various metrics, including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), decision curve analysis (DCA), and subgroup analysis. Results A total of 7398 participants from the NHANES cohort and 4880 patients from the Western China cohort were included. TyG-WC had the best predictive power for MAFLD risk in the NHANES cohort (AUC 0.863, 95% CI 0.855–0.871), while TyG-BMI had the best predictive ability in the Western China cohort (AUC 0.903, 95% CI 0.895–0.911), outperforming other models, and in terms of IDI, NRI, DCA, and subgroup analysis combined, TyG-WC remained superior in the NAHANES cohort and TyG-BMI in the Western China cohort. Conclusions TyG-BMI demonstrated satisfactory diagnostic efficacy in identifying individuals at a heightened risk of MAFLD in Western China. Conversely, TyG-WC exhibited the best diagnostic performance for MAFLD risk recognition in the United States population. These findings suggest the necessity of selecting the most suitable predictive models based on regional and ethnic variations.

Abstract Background Surgical resection remains the primary treatment option for gallbladder carcinoma (GBC). However, there is a pressing demand for prognostic tools that can refine patients' treatment choices and tailor personalized therapies accordingly. Aims The nomograms were constructed using the data of a training cohort (n = 378) of GBC patients at Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital (EHBH) between 2008 and 2018. The model's performance was validated in GBC patients (n = 108) at Guangzhou Centre from 2007 to 2018. Methods and results The 5‐year overall survival (OS) rate in the training cohort was 24.4%. Multivariate analyses were performed using preoperative and postoperative data to identify independent predictors of OS. These predictors were then incorporated into preoperative and postoperative nomograms, respectively. The C‐index of the preoperative nomogram was 0.661 (95% CI, 0.627 to 0.694) for OS prediction and correctly delineated four subgroups (5‐year OS rates: 48.1%, 19.0%, 15.6%, and 8.1%, p

Controversy exists regarding the superiority of the performance of prognostic tools based on advanced machine learning (ML) algorithms for patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). However, it is unclear whether ML prognostic models will benefit patients due to the lack of a comprehensive assessment. We aimed to develop and evaluate ML models for predicting unfavorable functional outcomes for aSAH patients and identify the model with the greatest performance. In this retrospective study, a dataset of 955 patients with aSAH was used to construct and validate prognostic models for functional outcomes assessed using the modified Rankin scale during a follow-up period of 3–6 months. Clinical scores and clinical and radiological features on admission and secondary complications were used to construct models based on 5 ML algorithms (i.e., logistic regression [LR], k-nearest neighbor, extreme gradient boosting, random forest, and artificial neural network). For evaluation among the models, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, area under the precision-recall curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis were used. Composite models had significantly higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curves than did simple models in predicting unfavorable functional outcomes. Compared with other composite models (random forest and extreme gradient boosting) with good calibration, LR had the highest area under the precision-recall score and showed the greatest benefit in decision curve analysis. Of the 5 studied ML models, the conventional LR model outperformed the advanced algorithms in predicting the prognosis and could be a useful tool for health care professionals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Before being used in clinical practice, a prediction model should be tested in patients whose data were not used in model development. Previously, we developed the AD F ICE_IT models for predicting any fall and recurrent falls, referred as Any_fall and Recur_fall. In this study, we externally validated the models and compared their clinical value to a practical screening strategy where patients are screened for falls history alone. Retrospective, combined analysis of 2 prospective cohorts. Data were included of 1125 patients (aged ≥65 years) who visited the geriatrics department or the emergency department. We evaluated the models' discrimination using the C-statistic. Models were updated using logistic regression if calibration intercept or slope values deviated significantly from their ideal values. Decision curve analysis was applied to compare the models' clinical value (ie, net benefit) against that of falls history for different decision thresholds. During the 1-year follow-up, 428 participants (42.7%) endured 1 or more falls, and 224 participants (23.1%) endured a recurrent fall (≥2 falls). C-statistic values were 0.66 (95% CI 0.63-0.69) and 0.69 (95% CI 0.65-0.72) for the Any_fall and Recur_fall models, respectively. Any_fall overestimated the fall risk and we therefore updated only its intercept whereas Recur_fall showed good calibration and required no update. Compared with falls history, Any_fall and Recur_fall showed greater net benefit for decision thresholds of 35% to 60% and 15% to 45%, respectively. The models performed similarly in this data set of geriatric outpatients as in the development sample. This suggests that fall-risk assessment tools that were developed in community-dwelling older adults may perform well in geriatric outpatients. We found that in geriatric outpatients the models have greater clinical value across a wide range of decision thresholds compared with screening for falls history alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study using decision curve analysis (DCA) was to evaluate the clinical utility of a deep-learning mortality prediction model for cardiac surgery decision making compared with the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II and to 2 machine-learning models. Using data from a French prospective database, this retrospective study evaluated all patients who underwent cardiac surgery in 43 hospital centers between January 2012 and December 2020. A receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to compare the accuracy of the EuroSCORE II, machine-learning models, and an adapted Tabular Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers deep-learning model in predicting postoperative in-hospital mortality. The clinical utility of these models for cardiac surgery decision making was compared using DCA. Over the study period, 165,640 patients underwent cardiac surgery, with a mean EuroSCORE II of 3.99 ± 6.67%. In the receiver operating characteristic analysis, the area under the curve was significantly greater for the deep-learning model (0.834; 95% confidence interval, 0.831-0.838) than the EuroSCORE II (P <.001), the random forest model (P =.03), and the Extreme Gradient Boosting model (P =.03). In the DCA, the clinical utility of the 3 artificial intelligence models was superior to that of the EuroSCORE II, especially when the threshold probability of death was high (>45%). The deep-learning model showed the greatest advantage over the EuroSCORE II. The deep-learning model had better predictive accuracy and greater clinical utility than the EuroSCORE II and the 2 machine-learning models. These findings suggest that deep learning with Tabular Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers prediction model could be used in the future as the gold standard for cardiac surgery decision making. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aims: Some drug-induced liver injury (DILI) cases may become chronic, even after drug withdrawal. Radiomics can predict liver disease progression. We established and validated a predictive model incorporating the clinical characteristics and radiomics features for predicting chronic DILI. Methods: One hundred sixty-eight DILI patients who underwent liver gadolinium-diethylenetriamine pentaacetate-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging were recruited. The patients were clinically diagnosed using the Roussel Uclaf causality assessment method. Patients who progressed to chronicity or recovery were randomly divided into the training (70%) and validation (30%) cohorts, respectively. Hepatic T1-weighted images were segmented to extract 1672 radiomics features. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used for feature selection, and Rad-score was constructed using support vector machines. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to build a clinic-radiomics model incorporating clinical characteristics and Rad-scores. The clinic-radiomics model was evaluated for its discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness in the independent validation set. Results: Of 1672 radiomics features, 28 were selected to develop the Rad-score. Cholestatic/mixed patterns and Rad-score were independent risk factors of chronic DILI. The clinic-radiomics model, including the Rad-score and injury patterns, distinguished chronic from recovered DILI patients in the training (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]: 0.89, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.87–0.92) and validation (AUROC: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.83–0.91) cohorts with good calibration and great clinical utility. Conclusion: The clinic-radiomics model yielded sufficient accuracy for predicting chronic DILI, providing a practical and non-invasive tool for managing DILI patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of developing clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) using preoperative clinical and imaging data. Methods: The data of 205 patients were retrospectively analyzed, randomly divided into training (n = 125) and testing groups (n = 80). The patients' preoperative laboratory indicators, preoperative clinical baseline data, and preoperative imaging data [enhanced computed tomography (CT), enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)] were collected. Univariate analyses combined with multivariate logistic regression were used to identify the independent risk factors for CR-POPF. These factors were used to train and validate the model and to develop the risk nomogram. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to measure the predictive ability of the models. The integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the clinical feasibility of the nomogram in relation to five other models established in literature. Results: CT visceral fat area (P = 0.014), the pancreatic spleen signal ratio on T1 fat-suppressed MRI sequences (P < 0.001), and CT main pancreatic duct diameter (P = 0.001) were identified as independent prognostic factors and used to develop the model. The final nomogram achieved an AUC of 0.903. The IDI and DCA showed that the nomogram outperformed the other five CR-POPF models in the training and testing cohorts. Conclusion: The nomogram achieved a superior predictive ability for CR-POPF following PD than other models described in literature. Clinicians can use this simple model to optimize perioperative planning according to the patient's risk of developing CR-POPF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bo Li,1 Weiqing Wu,1 Aijun Liu,1 Lifeng Feng,1 Bin Li,1 Yong Mei,1 Li Tan,1 Chaoyang Zhang,2 Yangtao Tian1 1Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Shangluo Center Hospital, Shangluo, Shaanxi, 726000, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Ultrasound Medicine, Shangluo Center Hospital, Shangluo, Shaanxi, 726000, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Yangtao Tian, Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Shangluo Center Hospital, 37 Shangyang, Shangzhou, Shangluo, Shaanxi, 726000, People’s Republic of China, Email 928763821@qq.comBackground: Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can progress to lung and kidney dysfunction, and blood clotting within 48 hours of its onset, and is associated with a high mortality rate. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable diagnostic prediction model for the early stage of severe pancreatitis.Methods: The clinical data of patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis from October 2017 to June 2022 at the Shangluo Central Hospital were collected. The risk factors were screened by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis. A novel nomogram model was then established by multivariable logistic regression analysis.Results: The data of 436 patients with acute pancreatitis, 45 (10.3%) patients had progressed to SAP. Through univariate and LASSO regression analyses, the neutrophils (P < 0.001), albumin (P < 0.001), blood glucose (P < 0.001), serum calcium (P < 0.001), serum creatinine (P < 0.001), blood urea nitrogen (P < 0.001) and procalcitonin (P = 0.005) were identified as independent predictive factors for SAP. The nomogram built on the basis of these factors predicted SAP with sensitivity of 0.733, specificity of 0.9, positive predictive value of 0.458 and negative predictive value of 0.967. Furthermore, the concordance index of the nomogram reached 0.889 (95% CI, 0.837– 0.941), and the area under the curve (AUC) in receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was significantly higher than that of the APACHEII and ABISAP scoring systems. The established model was validated by plotting the clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC).Conclusion: We established a nomogram to predict the progression of early acute pancreatitis to SAP with high discrimination and accuracy.Keywords: acute pancreatitis, prediction model, risk factor, nomogram, decision curve analysis

Aims: To identify variables independently associated with same-day discharge (SDD) of patients following revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) and to develop machine learning algorithms to predict suitable candidates for outpatient rTKA. Methods: Data were obtained from the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Programme (ACS-NSQIP) database from the years 2018 to 2020. Patients with elective, unilateral rTKA procedures and a total hospital length of stay between zero and four days were included. Demographic, preoperative, and intraoperative variables were analyzed. A multivariable logistic regression (MLR) model and various machine learning techniques were compared using area under the curve (AUC), calibration, and decision curve analysis. Important and significant variables were identified from the models. Results: Of the 5,600 patients included in this study, 342 (6.1%) underwent SDD. The random forest (RF) model performed the best overall, with an internally validated AUC of 0.810. The ten crucial factors favoring SDD in the RF model include operating time, anaesthesia type, age, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, race, history of diabetes, rTKA type, sex, and smoking status. Eight of these variables were also found to be significant in the MLR model. Conclusion: The RF model displayed excellent accuracy and identified clinically important variables for determining candidates for SDD following rTKA. Machine learning techniques such as RF will allow clinicians to accurately risk-stratify their patients preoperatively, in order to optimize resources and improve patient outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(6):399–407.

Abstract Background To explore the role of Trans-rectal Color Doppler Flow Imaging (TR-CDFI) and risk-stratification nomogram in a MRI-directed biopsy pathway and examine its clinical performance, via comparisons between existing four biopsy pathways. Methods A Bi-centered retrospective cohort study on biopsy-naïve male population who received ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy from Jan. 2015 to Feb. 2022 was proposed. All enrolled patients should have undergone serum-PSA test, TR-CDFI and multiparametric MRI before biopsy, and subsequently opted for surgical intervention, enabling more accurate pathological grading. We then utilized univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to construct a predictive nomogram for risk-stratification. Outcome measurements were overall prostate cancer (PCA) detection rate, clinically significant PCA (csPCA) detection rate, clinically insignificant PCA (cisPCA) detection rate, biopsy avoidance rate and missed csPCA detection rate. Decision curve analysis was used to compare the performances between diagnostic pathways. Results Under the criteria mentioned above, 752 patients from two centers were included. Reference pathway (biopsy for all) showed that overall PCA detection rate was 46.1%, csPCA and cisPCA detection rates were 32.3% and 13.8% respectively. Risk-based MRI-directed TR-CDFI pathway, which incorporated both TR-CDFI and risk stratification nomogram, exhibited PCA detection rate of 38.7%, csPCA detection rate of 28.7%, cisPCA detection rate of 7.0%, Biopsy avoidance rate of 42.4%, and missed csPCA detection rate of 3.6%. Decision curve analysis revealed that the risk-based pathway held the most net benefit, under the threshold probability level between 0.1 and 0.5. Conclusions The risk-based MRI-directed TR-CDFI pathway out-performed other strategies, balancing csPCA detection and biopsy avoidance. This suggested that incorporation of TR-CDFI and risk-stratification nomogram in the early PCA diagnostic procedures could reduce unnecessary biopsies.

Background: The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram model in combination with thromboelastography (TEG) to predict the development of venous thromboembolism (VTE) after lung cancer surgery.Methods: The data of 502 patients who underwent surgical treatment for lung cancer from December 2020 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were then randomized into training and validation groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were carried out in the training group and independent risk factors were included in the nomogram to construct risk prediction models. The predictive capability of the model was assessed by the consistency index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), the calibration plot and decision curve analysis (DCA).Results: The nomogram risk prediction model comprised of the following five independent risk factors: age, operation time, forced expiratory volume in one second and postoperative TEG parameters k value(K) and reaction time(R). The nomogram model demonstrated better predictive power than the modified Caprini model, with the C-index being greater. The calibration curve verified the consistency of nomogram between the two groups. Furthermore, DCA demonstrated the clinical value and potential for practical application of the nomogram.Conclusion: This study is the first to combine TEG and clinical risk factors to construct a nomogram to predict the occurrence of VTE in patients after lung cancer surgery. This model provides a simple and user-friendly method to assess the probability of VTE in postoperative lung cancer patients, enabling clinicians to develop individualized preventive anticoagulation strategies to reduce the incidence of such complications.

Backgroud: The current diagnostic criteria for refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (RMPP) among Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia (MPP) are insufficient for early identification, and potentially delayed appropriate treatment. This study aimed to develop an effective individualized diagnostic prediction nomogram for pediatric RMPP. Methods: A total of 517 hospitalized children with MPP, including 131 with RMPP and 386 without RMPP (non-RMPP), treated at Lianyungang Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital from January 2018 to December 2021 were retrospectively enrolled as a development (modeling) cohort to construct an RMPP prediction nomogram. Additionally, 322 pediatric patients with MPP (64 with RMPP and 258 with non-RMPP, who were treated at the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from June 2020 to May 2022 were retrospectively enrolled as a validation cohort to assess the prediction accuracy of model. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify RMPP risk factors among patients with MPP. Nomogram were generated based on these risk factors using the rms package of R, and the predictive performance was evaluated based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and using decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Multivariate analysis revealed five significant independent predictors of RMPP among patients with MPP: age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08–1.33, P = 0.038), fever duration (HR 1.34, 95%CI 1.20–1.50, P < 0.001), lymphocyte count (HR 0.45, 95%CI 0.23–0.89, P = 0.021), serum D-dimer (D-d) level (HR 1.70, 95%CI 1.16–2.49, P = 0.006), and pulmonary imaging score (HR 5.16, 95%CI 2.38–11.21, P < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve was 90.7% for the development cohort and 96.36% for the validation cohort. The internal and external verification calibration curves were almost linear with slopes of 1, and the DCA curve revealed a net benefit with the final predictive nomogram. Conclusion: This study proposes a predictive nomogram only based on five variables. The nomogram can be used for early identification of RMPP among pediatric patients with MPP, thereby facilitating more timely and effective intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The absence of distinct symptoms in the majority of individuals with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) poses challenges in identifying those at high risk, so we need simple, efficient and cost-effective noninvasive scores to aid healthcare professionals in patient identification. While most noninvasive scores were developed for the diagnosis of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), consequently, the objective of this study was to systematically assess the diagnostic ability of 12 noninvasive scores (METS-IR/TyG/TyG-WC/TyG-BMI/TyG-WtHR/VAI/HSI/FLI/ZJU/FSI/K-NAFLD) for MAFLD. Methods: The study recruited eligible participants from two sources: the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2017-2020.3 cycle and the database of the West China Hospital Health Management Center. The performance of the model was assessed using various metrics, including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), decision curve analysis (DCA), and subgroup analysis. Results: A total of 7398 participants from the NHANES cohort and 4880 patients from the Western China cohort were included. TyG-WC had the best predictive power for MAFLD risk in the NHANES cohort (AUC 0.863, 95% CI 0.855–0.871), while TyG-BMI had the best predictive ability in the Western China cohort (AUC 0.903, 95% CI 0.895–0.911), outperforming other models, and in terms of IDI, NRI, DCA, and subgroup analysis combined, TyG-WC remained superior in the NAHANES cohort and TyG-BMI in the Western China cohort. Conclusions: TyG-BMI demonstrated satisfactory diagnostic efficacy in identifying individuals at a heightened risk of MAFLD in Western China. Conversely, TyG-WC exhibited the best diagnostic performance for MAFLD risk recognition in the United States population. These findings suggest the necessity of selecting the most suitable predictive models based on regional and ethnic variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Current studies on the establishment of prognostic models for colon cancer with lung metastasis (CCLM) were lacking. This study aimed to construct and validate prediction models of overall survival (OS) and cancerspecific survival (CSS) probability in CCLM patients. Method: Data on 1,284 patients with CCLM were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly assigned with 7:3 (stratified by survival time) to a development set and a validation set on the basis of computer-calculated random numbers. After screening the predictors by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate Cox regression, the suitable predictors were entered into Cox proportional hazard models to build prediction models. Calibration curves, concordance index (C-index), time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to perform the validation of models. Based on model-predicted risk scores, patients were divided into low-risk and high-risk groups. The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) plots and log-rank test were applied to perform survival analysis between the two groups. Results: Building upon the LASSO and multivariate Cox regression, six variables were significantly associated with OS and CSS (i.e., tumor grade, AJCC T stage, AJCC N stage, chemotherapy, CEA, liver metastasis). In development, validation, and expanded testing sets, AUCs and C-indexes of the OS and CSS prediction models were all greater than or near 0.7, which indicated excellent predictability of models. On the whole, the calibration curves coincided with the diagonal in two models. DCA indicated that the models had higher clinical benefit than any single risk factor. Survival analysis results showed that the prognosis was worse in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group, which suggested that the models had significant discrimination for patients with different prognoses. Conclusion: After verification, our prediction models of CCLM are reliable and can predict the OS and CSS of CCLM patients in the next 1, 3, and 5 years, providing valuable guidance for clinical prognosis estimation and individualized administration of patients with CCLM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Infections associated with nephrotic relapses (NR) are often managed according to physician preferences. A validated prediction tool will aid clinical decision-making and help in rationalizing antibiotic prescriptions. Our objective was to develop a biomarker-based prediction model and a regression nomogram for the prediction of the probability of infection in children with NR. We also aimed to perform a decision curve analysis (DCA). Methods: This cross-sectional study included children (1–18 years) with NR. The outcome of interest was the presence of bacterial infection as diagnosed using standard clinical definitions. Total leucocyte count (TLC), absolute neutrophil count (ANC), quantitative C-reactive protein (qCRP), and procalcitonin (PCT) were the biomarker predictors. Logistic regression was used to identify the best biomarker model, followed by discrimination and calibration testing. Subsequently, a probability nomogram was constructed and DCA was done to determine the clinical utility and net benefits. Results: We included 150 relapse episodes. A bacterial infection was diagnosed in 35%. Multivariate analysis showed the ANC + qCRP model to be the best predictive model. This model displayed excellent discrimination (AUC: 0.83), and calibration (optimism-adjusted intercept: 0.015, slope: 0.926). A prediction nomogram and web-application was developed. The superiority of the model was also confirmed by DCA in the probability threshold range of 15–60%. Conclusions: An ANC-based and qCRP-based internally validated nomogram can be used for the prediction of probability of infection in non-critically ill children with NR. Decision curves from this study will aid in the decision-making of empirical antibiotic therapy, incorporating threshold probabilities as a surrogate of physician preference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims This study aimed to develop a nomogram model for predicting prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) in patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery. Methods and results In total, 693 patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery at an Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University between January 2018 and June 2020 were studied. Postoperative PMV was required in 147 patients (21.2%). Logistic regression analysis showed that delirium [odds ratio (OR), 3.063; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.991–4.713; P  < 0.001], intraoperative blood transfusion (OR, 2.489; 95% CI, 1.565–3.960; P  < 0.001), obesity (OR, 2.789; 95% CI, 1.543–5.040; P  = 0.001), postoperative serum creatinine level (mmol/L; OR, 1.012; 95% CI, 1.007–1.017; P  < 0.001), postoperative serum albumin level (g/L; OR, 0.937; 95% CI, 0.902–0.973; P  = 0.001), and postoperative total bilirubin level (μmol/L; OR, 1.020; 95% CI, 1.005–1.034; P  = 0.008) were independent risk factors for PMV. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for our nomogram was found to be 0.770 (95% CI, 0.727–0.813). The goodness-of-fit test indicated that the model fitted the data well (χ2 = 12.480, P  = 0.131). After the model was internally validated, the calibration plot demonstrated good performance of the nomogram, as supported by the Harrell concordance index of 0.760. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful in identifying patients at risk for PMV. Conclusion We established a new nomogram model that may provide an individual prediction of PMV. This model may provide nurses, social workers, physicians, and administrators with an accurate and objective assessment tool to identify patients at high risk for PMV after cardiovascular surgery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Prediction modelling increasingly becomes an important risk assessment tool in perioperative systems approaches, e.g. in complex patients with open abdomen treatment for peritonitis. In this population, combining predictors from multiple medical domains (i.e. demographical, physiological and surgical variables) outperforms the prediction capabilities of single-domain prediction models. However, the benefit of these prediction models for clinical decision-making remains to be investigated. We therefore examined the clinical utility of mortality prediction models in patients suffering from peritonitis with a decision curve analysis. Methods In this secondary analysis of a large dataset, a traditional logistic regression approach, three machine learning methods and a stacked ensemble were employed to examine the predictive capability of demographic, physiological and surgical variables in predicting mortality under open abdomen treatment for peritonitis. Calibration was examined with calibration belts and predictive performance was assessed with the area both under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and under the precision recall curve (AUPRC) and with the Brier Score. Clinical utility of the prediction models was examined by means of a decision curve analysis (DCA) within a treatment threshold range of interest of 0–30%, where threshold probabilities are traditionally defined as the minimum probability of disease at which further intervention would be warranted. Results Machine learning methods supported available evidence of a higher prediction performance of a multi- versus single-domain prediction models. Interestingly, their prediction performance was similar to a logistic regression model. The DCA demonstrated that the overall net benefit is largest for a multi-domain prediction model and that this benefit is larger compared to the default “treat all” strategy only for treatment threshold probabilities above about 10%. Importantly, the net benefit for low threshold probabilities is dominated by physiological predictors: surgical and demographics predictors provide only secondary decision-analytic benefit. Conclusions DCA provides a valuable tool to compare single-domain and multi-domain prediction models and demonstrates overall higher decision-analytic value of the latter. Importantly, DCA provides a means to clinically differentiate the risks associated with each of these domains in more depth than with traditional performance metrics and highlighted the importance of physiological predictors for conservative intervention strategies for low treatment thresholds. Further, machine learning methods did not add significant benefit either in prediction performance or decision-analytic utility compared to logistic regression in these data.

Abstract Background Coronary artery aneurysms (CAA) persistence prediction is critical in evaluating Kawasaki disease (KD). This study established a nomogram prediction system based on potential risk factors for assessing the risk of CAA persistence in a contemporary cohort of patients with KD. Methods This cohort comprised 105 patients with KD who had been diagnosed with CAA during the acute or subacute phase by echocardiography. The follow-up duration was at least 1 year. The clinical and laboratory parameters were compared between the CAA regression and persistence groups. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors for CAA persistence, which were subsequently used to build the nomogram predictive model. Decision curve analysis was used to assess the net benefits of different nomogram scores. Results Of these patients with CAA, 27.6% of patients presented with persistent lesions. The incidences of CAA persistence were 14.1%, 81.3%, and 100.0% in patients with small, medium, and large aneurysms, respectively. The ratio of neutrophils to lymphocytes, γ-GT, and CAA size at diagnosis were considered as the independent risk factors for CAA persistence in patients with KD. The nomogram predictive models yielded a high capability in predicting CAA persistence, based on either univariable or multivariable analyses-identified parameters, compared with using CAA size as a single predictor. Conclusion The initial ratio of neutrophils to lymphocytes, γ-GT, and CAA size were the independent risk factors for CAA persistence in patients with KD. Nomogram scores could help elevate predictive efficacy in detecting CAA persistence.

Abstract Background Correctly identifying patients at risk of femoral fracture due to metastatic bone disease remains a clinical challenge. Mirels criteria remains the most widely referenced method with the advantage of being easily calculated but it suffers from poor specificity. The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a modified Mirels scoring system through scoring modification of the original Mirels location component within the proximal femur. Methods Computational (finite element) experiments were performed to quantify strength reduction in the proximal femur caused by simulated lytic lesions at defined locations. Virtual spherical defects representing lytic lesions were placed at 32 defined locations based on axial (4 axial positions: neck, intertrochanteric, subtrochanteric or diaphyseal) and circumferential (8 circumferential: 45-degree intervals) positions. Finite element meshes were created, material property assignment was based on CT mineral density, and femoral head/greater trochanter loading consistent with stair ascent was applied. The strength of each femur with a simulated lesion divided by the strength of the intact femur was used to calculate the Location-Based Strength Fraction (LBSF). A modified Mirels location score was next defined for each of the 32 lesion locations with an assignment of 1 (LBSF > 75%), 2 (LBSF: 51–75%), and 3 (LBSF: 0–50%). To test the new scoring system, data from 48 patients with metastatic disease to the femur, previously enrolled in a Musculoskeletal Tumor Society (MSTS) cross-sectional study was used. The lesion location was identified for each case based on axial and circumferential location from the CT images and assigned an original (2 or 3) and modified (1,2, or 3) Mirels location score. The total score for each was then calculated. Eight patients had a fracture of the femur and 40 did not over a 4-month follow-up period. Logistic regression and decision curve analysis were used to explore relationships between clinical outcome (Fracture/No Fracture) and the two Mirels scoring methods. Results The location-based strength fraction (LBSF) was lowest for lesions in the subtrochanteric and diaphyseal regions on the lateral side of the femur; lesions in these regions would be at greatest risk of fracture. Neck lesions located at the anterior and antero-medial positions were at the lowest risk of fracture. When grouped, neck lesions had the highest LBSF (83%), followed by intertrochanteric (72%), with subtrochanteric (50%) and diaphyseal lesions (49%) having the lowest LBSF. There was a significant difference (p

Abstract Background To develop a model for predicting the risk of visual impairment in diabetic retinopathy (DR) by a nomogram. Methods Patients with DR who underwent both optical coherence tomography angiography (OCTA) and fundus fluorescein angiography (FFA) were retrospectively enrolled. FFA was conducted for DR staging, swept-source optical coherence tomography (SS-OCT) of the macula and 3*3-mm blood flow imaging by OCTA to observe retinal structure and blood flow parameters. We defined a logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution visual acuity (LogMAR VA) ≥0.5 as visual impairment, and the characteristics correlated with VA were screened using binary logistic regression. The selected factors were then entered into a multivariate binary stepwise regression, and a nomogram was developed to predict visual impairment risk. Finally, the model was validated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), calibration plots, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC). Results A total of 29 parameters were included in the analysis, and 13 characteristics were used to develop a nomogram model. Finally, diabetic macular ischaemia (DMI) grading, disorganization of the retinal inner layers (DRIL), outer layer disruption, and the vessel density of choriocapillaris layer inferior (SubVD) were found to be statistically significant (P