1. A Predictive Model Based on Quantitative Fecal Immunochemical Test Can Stratify the Risk of Colorectal Cancer in an Organized Screening Program.
- Author
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Frazzoni L, Pecere S, Hassan C, Fuccio L, Del Vecchio LE, Fabbri C, Arrigoni A, Cassoni P, Mazzucco D, Orione L, Gibiino G, Repici A, Spada C, Iacopini F, Senore C, and Antonelli G
- Abstract
Background & Aims: A significant number of post fecal immunochemical test (FIT) colonoscopies in European-organized colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs are performed beyond the recommended 31-day threshold due to overburdened colonoscopy services. We aimed to develop a simple predictive model to stratify CRC risk of FIT+ patients., Methods: In a cohort of screenees undergoing colonoscopy following a positive (≥20 μg hemoglobin/g feces) OC-sensor FIT result between 2004 and 2019, we derived and validated logistic regression-based models including variables independently associated with CRC and advanced neoplasms. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were reported., Results: Overall, 40,276 patients (46% female; mean age, 66 ± 4 years) undergoing post FIT colonoscopy were included. Variables independently associated with CRC were age ≥70 years (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.03-1.40), male sex (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.11-1.37), fecal hemoglobin level (50-199 μg/g: OR, 2.84; 95% CI, 2.47-3.27; ≥200 μg/g: OR, 6.91; 95% CI, 5.99-7.98), and first round of FIT (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.35-1.73). The discriminative ability of the model was good (area under the receiver operating characteristic, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.73-0.77) in the validation cohort. Applying the model would lead to over two-thirds decrease in delayed CRC diagnoses, considering various scenarios of timely colonoscopy scheduling after FIT+., Conclusions: We derived and validated a predictive model for risk stratification of patients with positive FIT in a large CRC screening cohort. Applying our model in screening practice would allow policy makers to effectively prioritize FIT+ individuals based on the risk of CRC, substantially reducing the rate of delayed CRC diagnosis., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2024
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