1. Estimación del crecimiento de denuncias de delitos sexuales contra niños, niñas y adolescentes: Desarrollo de un modelo predictivo.
- Author
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Carrillo, Carolina Pavez, Muñoz, Nicolás Pietrasanta, Sepúlveda, Claudia Capella, Cortez, Cristián Pinto, and Saavedra, Diego Portilla
- Subjects
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SEX crimes , *TIME series analysis , *CRIMES against children , *GOVERNMENT policy , *ACCESS to justice - Abstract
In Chile, reports of sexual crimes against children and adolescents have steadily increased in recent years, reaching 40,000 cases in 2022. To determine whether this trend will continue in the coming years, the research is developing a predictive model to estimate the number of these complaints, using time series analysis. According to this model, it is estimated that by 2030 there could be 85,000 such complaints. Similarly, it was identified that in recent years, the increase in reporting has been influenced by the implementation of related public policies and media coverage of criminal sexual offenses. The beginning and end of the school year have also had an increasing effect on the fluctuation in reporting. The results of this research provide input for public institutions in the criminal justice field to plan and implement the necessary measures to guarantee access to justice for these victims. It also highlights the growing importance of educational establishments in reporting this type of aggression and the relevance of other organizations being able to fulfill this role, especially during school holidays. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024