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Temperate rainforests are rare ecosystems globally; restricted to cool, moist conditions that are sensitive to a changing climate. Despite their crucial conservation importance, a global assessment of how temperate rainforests will be impacted by climate change is lacking. We calculated historical (1970–2000) climate conditions for the temperate rainforest biome using ERA5 reanalysis data for three key bioclimatic variables: warmest quarter temperature, annual precipitation and proportion of rainfall during warmest quarter. We used high‐spatial resolution climate projections for these variables to identify regions likely to become unsuitable for temperate rainforests under four future shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. We predict unmitigated climate change (SSP 5–8.5) would lead to a 68.3 (95% confidence interval (95 CI): 53.4–81.3)% loss in the existing temperate rainforest biome by 2100 at a global scale with some national‐level reductions exceeding 90%. Restricting global warming to <2°C (consistent with SSP 1–2.6), limits loss of global temperate rainforest biome to 9.7 (95 CI: 7.8–13.3)% by 2100 and is crucial to ensuring temperate rainforest persistence. Deforestation has resulted in loss of up to 43% of the current temperate rainforest biome with only 37% of primary forest remaining, and some regions like Europe with virtually none. Protection and restoration of the temperate rainforest biome, along with emissions reductions, are vital to its climate future. Plain Language Summary: Temperate rainforests are rare ecosystems found only in wet and cool regions, making them vulnerable to a warming climate. They are important to conserve because they host unique species and can store high amounts of carbon. We use global maps of forest cover and condition to assess how much temperate rainforest remains, and how much it has been impacted by human activity. We find that only 37% of the temperate rainforest area is still covered by primary forest. We use a map of existing temperate rainforests along with records of past weather conditions to estimate what climate conditions are needed for its survival. We then use estimates of future climate under four different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions to see which areas of temperate rainforest will maintain these conditions up to 2100. We find that under the most pessimistic scenario, 68% of temperate rainforest will be lost, while under the most optimistic scenario, only 9% will be lost. Our study can aid temperate rainforest conservation by identifying the areas of temperate rainforest that are least/most vulnerable to climate change, and where there is potential to restore forest. Key Points: Temperate rainforests rely on a cool and moist climate biome that globally rare and vulnerable to climate changeUnmitigated climate change would lead to a loss of 68% of the temperate rainforest biome, but climate mitigation limits loss to 9%We identify historical, intact and potential temperate rainforest extent and climate change vulnerability to inform conservation efforts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world's forests are being increasingly disturbed from exposure to the compounding impacts of land use and climate change, in addition to natural disturbance regimes. Boreal forests have a lower level of deforestation compared to tropical forests, and while they have higher levels of natural disturbances, the accumulated impact of forest management for commodity production coupled with worsening fire weather conditions and other climate-related stressors is resulting in ecosystem degradation and loss of biodiversity. We used satellite-based time-series analysis of two canopy indices—canopy photosynthesis and canopy water stress—to calculate an index that maps the relative stability of forest canopies in the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. By drawing upon available spatial time-series data on logging, wildfire, and insect infestation impacts, we were able to attribute the causal determinants of areas identified as having unstable forest canopy. The slope of the two indices that comprise the stability index also provided information as to where the forest is recovering from prior disturbances. The stability analyses and associated spatial datasets are available in an interactive web-based mapping app. that can be used to map disturbed forest canopies and the attribution of disturbances to human or natural causes. This information can assist decision-makers in identifying areas that are potentially ecologically degraded and in need of restoration and those stable areas that are a priority for protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conducted a multi-scaled Ecoregional Conservation Assessment for the Southern Rockies (~14.5 M ha) and its trailing edge, the Santa Fe Subregion (~2.2 M ha), from Wyoming to New Mexico, USA. We included a representation analysis of Existing Vegetation Types (EVTs), mature and old-growth forests (MOG), and four focal species—Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), North American wolverine (Gulo gulo luscus), Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida), and northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis)—in relation to 30 × 30 and 50 × 50 conservation targets. To integrate conservation targets with wildfire risk reduction to the built environment and climate change planning, we overlaid the location of wildfires and forest treatments in relation to the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) and included downscaled climate projections for a lower (RCP4.5) and higher (RCP8.5) emission scenario. Protected areas were highly skewed toward upper-elevation EVTs (most were >50% protected), underrepresented forest types (<30% protected), especially MOG (<22% protected) and riparian areas (~14% protected), and poorly represented habitats (<30%) for at least three of the focal species, especially in the subregion where nearly all the targets underperformed compared to the ecoregion. Most (>73%) forest-thinning treatments over the past decade were >1 km from delineated WUI areas, well beyond the distance at which vegetation management can effectively reduce structure ignition risk (<50 m from structures). Extreme heat, drought, snowpack reductions, altered timing of peak stream flows, increasing wildfires, and potential shifts in the climate, favoring woodlands over conifer forests, may impact forest-dependent species, while declining snowpack may impact wolverines that den at upper elevations. Strategically targeting the built environment for fuel treatments would improve wildfire risk reduction and may allow for expansion of protected areas held up in controversy. Stepped-up protection for roadless areas, adoption of wilderness proposals, and greater protection for MOG and riparian forests are critical for meeting representation targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Twenty USA states or jurisdictions and 125 nations have modeled national environmental policies after the National Environmental Policy Act. That act mandates that federal agencies initiate environmental impact statements (EISs) when substantive environmental or human health consequences are likely because of an agency action related to proposed development projects. The science used to inform the EIS process, however, does not require independent scientific peer review (ISPR) in the USA or most other nations. But ISPR is needed for governments to accurately inform the EIS decision-making and public reporting processes. Instead, science is routinely manipulated during EIS reviews to generate expedient project outcomes with substantially negative ecological, political, and long-term economic consequences. We provide four examples of EISs that lack ISPR, as well as four examples where reviews by independent scientists were helpful to improve agency decisions. We also recommend that independent scientists (no affiliation with the project proponents or agencies overseeing projects) be used to help assess potential environmental and socio-economic impacts, as well as offer appropriate risk assessments, study designs, and monitoring timeframes. We conclude that nations should convene formal reviews using independent scientists as a form of peer review in the EIS process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Canadian boreal forest biome has been subjected to a long history of management for wood production. Here, we examined the cumulative impacts of logging on older forests in terms of area, distribution and patch configuration in the managed forest zones of the Eastern Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. We also examined the consequences of these cumulative impacts on a once widely distributed and now threatened species, the woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). The cumulative area of recently logged forest (since ~1976) was 14,024,619 ha, with 8,210,617 ha in Quebec and 5,814,002 ha in Ontario. The total area of older forests was 21,249,341 ha, with 11,840,474 ha in Quebec and 9,408,867 ha in Ontario. Patch statistics revealed that there were 1,085,822 older forests with core patches < 0.25 ha and an additional 603,052 < 1.0 ha. There were 52 > 10,00–50,000 ha and 8 < 50,000 ha. Older forest patches (critical caribou habitat) in the 21 local population ranges totalled 6,103,534 ha, distributed among ~387,102 patches with 362,933 < 10 ha and 14 > 50,000 ha. The median percentage of local population ranges that was disturbed was 53.5%, with Charlevoix having the maximum (90.3%) and Basse Côte-Nord the least (34.9%). Woodland caribou local population ranges with disturbed suitable habitats >35% are considered unable to support self-sustaining populations. We found that for the 21 caribou local population ranges examined, 3 were at very high risk (>75% area disturbed), 16 at high risk (>45 ≤ 75% area disturbed), and 2 at low risk (≤35% area disturbed). Major changes are needed in boreal forest management in Ontario and Quebec for it to be ecologically sustainable, including a greater emphasis on protection and restoration for older forests, and to lower the risks for caribou populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]