Search

Reintroducing endangered species constitutes an important conservation tool. The performance of reintroduced populations is commonly assessed through mean demographic rates (survival, growth, reproduction and fecundity), but rate correlations are less studied despite their role in extinction risk and trait evolution.In our study, we reintroduced the endangered shrub Vella pseudocytisus subsp. paui in two locations in Spain and compared its demographic performance to that of two natural populations to assess reintroduction success. In both natural and reintroduced sites, we selected sub‐locations with presumably more favourable (clay) vs. more stressful (gypsum) soil conditions. We monitored a total of 1269 individuals in natural (12 years) and reintroduced populations (6 years) and compared their mean demographic rates and the within‐individual rate correlations between years.In clay substrate, mean demographic rates of the natural and the reintroduced population were similar, suggesting a successful reintroduction. In contrast, the reintroduced population in gypsum showed higher reproduction and fecundity than the natural population, but lower survival and growth.Contrary to mean demographic performance, interannual correlations among demographic rates did not vary between natural and reintroduced populations. While reproduction in a given year was positively correlated with later growth and later reproduction, growth in a given year had some negative consequences in subsequent plant performance, especially in gypsum substrate.Synthesis and applications. Our study shows that stressful conditions may trigger individual‐level trade‐offs in resource allocation and population‐level compensation among demographic rates. Demographic shifts arising from reintroductions in different environmental conditions may be considered by managers as a potential mechanism of resilience against environmental change. Finally, the similarity in rate correlations among sites suggests that information about correlations, which can be relevant when focusing conservation efforts, may be extrapolated from natural to reintroduced populations. This might be particularly reliable for species where rate correlations are demographically influential, such as those living under generally stressful conditions, or lacking buffering mechanisms for demographic variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather events, like flooding, are expected to become more severe due to climate change and increasingly impact populations across the US. Adding to this challenge, populations have concurrently settled in risky areas that were previously thought to have low, or no, exposure. Objective: This research seeks to understand the unique contribution of population growth and climate change as independent components of future risk levels in the US. To do so, future population level forecasts are coupled with future flood projections along all five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) at the block group level across the US. The results indicate that, across the five SSPs, the most increase in exposure will occur in SSP5 (+470,719), and the least will occur in SSP 3 (+57,189). By decomposing the contributions from flood and population growth, we find that the population growth-induced effect contributed to an increase in the population exposure for all of the SSPs except for SSP3. This research, and these results, provide a foundation for understanding future risks of flood exposure in an isolated framework and lay the groundwork for the development and integration of planning, adaptation, and mitigation efforts that may be used to address the growing risk of flooding in the context of the population forecasts provided here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests around the world are experiencing changes due to climate variability and human land use. How these changes interact and influence the vulnerability of forests are not well understood. In the eastern United States, well‐documented anthropogenic disturbances and land‐use decisions, such as logging and fire suppression, have influenced forest species assemblages, leading to a demographic shift from forests dominated by xeric species to those dominated by mesic species. Contemporarily, the climate has changed and is expected to continue to warm and produce higher evaporative demand, imposing stronger drought stress on forest communities. Here, we use an extensive network of tree‐ring records from common hardwood species across ~100 sites and ~1300 trees in the eastern United States to examine the magnitude of growth response to both wet and dry climate extremes. We find that growth reductions during drought exceed the positive growth response to pluvials. Mesic species such as Liriodendron tulipifera and Acer saccharum, which are becoming more dominant, are more sensitive to drought than more xeric species, such as oaks (Quercus) and hickory (Carya), especially at moderate and extreme drought intensities. Although more extreme droughts produce a larger annual growth reduction, mild droughts resulted in the largest cumulative growth decreases due to their higher frequency. When using global climate model projections, all scenarios show drought frequency increasing substantially (3–9 times more likely) by 2100. Thus, the ongoing demographic shift toward more mesic species in the eastern United States combined with drier conditions results in larger drought‐induced growth declines, suggesting that drought will have an even larger impact on aboveground carbon uptake in the future in the eastern United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the socio-spatial transformations of Djelfa, Algeria in the contexts of its urbanization from 1990 to 2024, focusing on the transition from extended to nuclear family structures and from monocentric to polycentric urban forms. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, including interviews, questionnaires, observations, and data analysis with 200 participants, the research outlines the adaptation of housing and urban space to meet the needs of Djelfa's growing population. Key findings highlight a dramatic demographic shift marked by a 75.6% increase in population, a reduction in average household size from 6.3 to 4.1, and a 150% surge in the number of households. This demographic expansion has spurred extensive urban expansion, effectively doubling the built-up area and necessitating the development of sub-centres of the city to mitigate pressure on the primary city center (CC). This evolution underscores Djelfa's progression towards a polycentric urban model, reflecting broader urban space decentralization and diversification trends to improve accessibility and reduce congestion. The study contributes to the understanding of complex effects that urbanization has on social and spatial structures in the Global South, highlighting the critical interplay between demographic shifts, urban planning, and social restructuring. Advocating for strategic, inclusive urban planning and policymaking, the research underscores the importance of addressing the diverse needs of rapidly urbanizing populations, offering invaluable insights into sustainable urban management practices applicable to similar urban scenarios worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background population ageing contributes to increased cancer cases and deaths and has profound implications for global healthcare systems. We estimated the trends of cancer cases and deaths in ageing populations at global and regional levels. Methods using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we analysed the change in cancer cases and deaths associated with population ageing, population growth and epidemiological factors from 1990 to 2019 using decomposition analysis. Additionally, we estimated the proportions of people aged 65 years and over accounting for total cases and deaths, and investigated relationships between the proportions and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Results from 1990 to 2019, there was an increase of 128.9% for total cases and 74.8% for total deaths in all cancers combined; the percentages of older people increased from 48.6% to 56.4% for cases and from 52.0% to 61.9% for deaths. Population ageing contributed to the largest increase in global cancer occurrence, with 56.5% for cases and 63.3% for deaths. However, the changes attributed to epidemiological factors was 5.2% for cancer cases and −33.4% for cancer deaths. The proportions of total cases and deaths of older adults were positively correlated with socioeconomic development of the country. Conclusion our findings revealed that the main contributor to increased cancer cases and deaths has changed from comprehensive epidemiological factors to demographic shifts. To respond to the rapidly growing occurrence of cancer in ageing populations, the global health priority should focus on meeting the rising demand for cancer diagnosis, treatment and care services for older people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prospective demographic information of the United States is limited to national-level analyses and subnational analyses of the total population. With nearly 40% of the U.S. population being residents of coastal areas, understanding the anticipated demographic changes in coastal counties is important for long-range planning purposes. In this research note, we use long-range, county-level population projections based on a simplified cohort-component method to discuss demographic changes by age, sex, and race and ethnicity for coastal counties between 2020 and the end of the century, and we compare these changes to inland counties. Presently, coastal counties are statistically significantly different from inland counties by race and ethnicity (more diverse) and sex (more women) but not by age, yet by 2025, we expect coastal counties to become significantly older than inland counties. We note several important trajectories of predicted demographic outcomes in coastal counties across the remainder of the century: (1) the non-Hispanic White population is expected to decrease, both numerically and as a percentage of the population; (2) the population older than 65 is projected to increase, both numerically and as a percentage of the population; and (3) the ratio of women to men remains constant over the century at 1.03. These trends combine to suggest that the future U.S. coastline will likely be both increasingly diverse racially and ethnically and significantly older than it is today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The resilience of serotinous obligate-seeding plants to fire may be compromised if increasing fire frequency curtails time available for canopy seed bank accumulation (i.e., immaturity risk), but how various drivers affect seed availability at the time of fire is poorly understood. Using field data from California closed-cone pine (Pinus attenuata and P. muricata) stands, we assess two critical demographic processes during the inter-fire period—reproductive capacity and mortality. At tree- and stand-levels, we test how these processes are affected by stand age and are mediated by biotic and abiotic factors. We found that stand age was the key driver of reproductive capacity; older stands had a greater proportion of reproductively mature individuals and greater closed cone density. Stand density mediated the effect of age; greater stand density resulted in greater closed cone density and a lower proportion of reproductively mature individuals, but reproductive capacity in low- and high-density stands converged over time. Increased moisture stress reduced the stand-level proportion reproductively mature trees but had no effect on closed cone density. Mortality was strongly associated with density-dependent thinning and increased in stands with high moisture stress. Reproductive capacity began to increase sharply 10 years post-fire and by 20 years immaturity risk was low. However, prior to 20 years, low-density stands with high moisture stress may be more susceptible to immaturity risk. Understanding these relationships is critical to predicting serotinous population persistence under changing climate and disturbance conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Delta variant (B.1.617.2) was considered the most dangerous SARS-CoV-2 strain; however, in-depth studies on its impact based on demographic and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 are scarce., Objective: We aimed to investigate the shift in demographic and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic with the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant compared with the wild-type (WT) strain (B.1)., Methods: A cross-sectional study of COVID-19 cases in the Indian population caused by the WT strain (B.1) and Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was performed. The viral genomic sequence metadata containing demographic, vaccination, and patient status details (N=9500, N Delta =6238, N WT =3262) were statistically analyzed., Results: With the Delta variant, in comparison with the WT strain, a higher proportion of young individuals (<20 years) were infected (0-9 years: Delta: 281/6238, 4.5% vs B.1: 75/3262, 2.3%; 10-19 years: Delta: 562/6238, 9% vs B.1: 229/3262, 7%; P<.001). The proportion of women contracting infection increased (Delta: 2557/6238, 41% vs B.1: 1174/3262, 36%; P<.001). However, it decreased for men (Delta: 3681/6238, 59% vs B.1: 2088/3262, 64%; P<.001). An increased proportion of the young population developed symptomatic illness and were hospitalized (Delta: 27/262, 10.3% vs B.1: 5/130, 3.8%; P=.02). Moreover, an increased proportion of the women (albeit not men) from the young (Delta: 37/262, 14.1% vs B.1: 4/130, 3.1%; P<.001) and adult (Delta: 197/262, 75.2% vs B.1: 72/130, 55.4%; P<.001) groups developed symptomatic illness and were hospitalized. The mean age of men and women who contracted infection (Delta: men=37.9, SD 17.2 years; women=36.6, SD 17.6 years; P<.001; B.1: men=39.6, SD 16.9 years; women=40.1, SD 17.4 years; P<.001) as well as developing symptoms or being hospitalized (Delta: men=39.6, SD 17.4 years; women=35.6, SD 16.9 years, P<.001; B.1: men=47, SD 18 years; women=49.5, SD 20.9 years, P<.001) were considerably lower with the Delta variant than the B.1 strain. The total mortality was about 1.8 times higher with the Delta variant than with the WT strain. With the Delta variant, compared with B.1, mortality decreased for men (Delta: 58/85, 68% vs B.1: 15/20, 75%; P<.001); in contrast, it increased for women (Delta: 27/85, 32% vs B.1: 5/20, 25%; P<.001). The odds of death increased with age, irrespective of sex (odds ratio 3.034, 95% CI 1.7-5.2, P<.001). Frequent postvaccination infections (24/6238) occurred with the Delta variant following complete doses., Conclusions: The increased involvement of young people and women, the lower mean age for illness, higher mortality, and frequent postvaccination infections were significant epidemiological concerns with the Delta variant., (©Ashutosh Kumar, Adil Asghar, Khursheed Raza, Ravi K Narayan, Rakesh K Jha, Abhigyan Satyam, Gopichand Kumar, Prakhar Dwivedi, Chetan Sahni, Chiman Kumari, Maheswari Kulandhasamy, Rohini Motwani, Gurjot Kaur, Hare Krishna, Sujeet Kumar, Kishore Sesham, Sada N Pandey, Rakesh Parashar, Kamla Kant. Originally published in the Interactive Journal of Medical Research (https://www.i-jmr.org/), 08.10.2024.)

The global demographic landscape is experiencing a monumental shift as populations age, driven by advances in healthcare and declining birth rates. This transition underscores the need to prepare the younger generation to navigate and contribute effectively to an aging society. This manuscript comprehensively reviews strategies to equip younger generations with the requisite knowledge, skills, and empathy to support an aging population. This study identifies critical challenges and opportunities in fostering intergenerational solidarity and understanding through an extensive analysis of existing literature and innovative educational programs. The review highlights the importance of early education, community engagement, and policy interventions in bridging the generational divide. Additionally, it explores the role of technology and digital media in facilitating awareness and empathy among young people. Key findings suggest that incorporating aging-related content into educational curricula, promoting volunteerism, and implementing supportive policies can significantly enhance the younger generation's readiness to support an aging society. The manuscript concludes with recommendations for future research and practical steps for educators, policymakers, and community leaders to foster a more inclusive and age-friendly environment. By preparing the younger generation today, we can build a more cohesive and supportive society for tomorrow., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest: In compliance with the ICMJE uniform disclosure form, all authors declare the following: Payment/services info: All authors have declared that no financial support was received from any organization for the submitted work. Financial relationships: All authors have declared that they have no financial relationships at present or within the previous three years with any organizations that might have an interest in the submitted work. Other relationships: All authors have declared that there are no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work., (Copyright © 2024, Mohd. Tohit et al.)

Objectives: Described as an indiscriminate killer by many chroniclers, the Black Death descended on London during the 14th century. To best understand the pattern of transmission among demographic groups, models should include multiple demographic and health covariates concurrently, something rarely done when examining Black Death, but implemented in this study to identify which demographic groups had a higher susceptibility. Female predisposition to the Black Death was also explored, focusing on whether social inequality added to vulnerability. Materials and methods: Three attritional cemeteries from the Wellcome Osteological Research Database were compared with the Black Death cemetery, East Smithfield. A Cox proportional hazards regression estimated hazards ratios of dying of the Black Death, using transition analysis ages‐at‐death as the time variable, and sex and frailty as covariates. Additionally, a binomial logistic regression generated odds ratios for age‐at‐death, sex, and frailty. Results: The Cox model produced a significant hazards ratio for individuals deemed frail. Similarly, the logit model calculated significantly increased odds ratios for frail individuals, and decreased odds for individuals aged 65+. Discussion: The older individuals were not undergoing growth during times of great stress in London pre‐dating the Black Death epidemic, which may explain the decreased odds of contracting the Black Death. Further, although women dealt with social inequality, which partially led to the demographic puzzle of the Medieval "missing" women, women's susceptibility to infection by the Black Death was not increased. The phenomenon of the missing women may be due to a combination of factors, including infant and child mortality and preservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Background: We report on the correlation between the proportion of people who fulfil the recommended amount of aerobic physical activity in the general population and the prevalence of frailty or prefrailty in the population ≥65 years in 11 European countries (Austria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden). In a subgroup analysis, it was assessed if people who do aerobic physical activity also do strength training. Methods: Aggregated physical activity data were taken from the European Health Interview Survey with the minimum effective sample size of 90,036 participants. Data on frailty status were taken from the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) study (N = 24,590). For the subgroup analysis, data of the Austrian Health Interview Survey (ATHIS) (N = 15,770) were included. Results: The results indicate a significant negative correlation between the proportion of people fulfilling the minimal aerobic physical activity recommendations (≥150 min/week) and the proportion of prefrail or frail people (R = −0.745; p = 0.008). The correlation between the optimal aerobic physical activity recommendations (≥300 min/week) and the proportion of prefrail or frail individuals was R = −0.691 (p = 0.019). In both data sets a north-south gradient was seen. Austrian data showed that 52.0% of the participants fulfilled the minimal aerobic physical activity recommendations and conducted strength training, whereas 18.4% did not fulfil the aerobic recommendations but performed strength training (p < 0.001). Conclusions: By taking into account that the number of people ≥65 years will increase in the future these results may be relevant in planning public health interventions for the whole population with the goal of reducing frailty in the elderly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Entwicklungen wie der Rückgang land- und forstwirtschaftlicher Betriebe sowie der demografische Wandel stellen die österreichische Landwirtschaft sowie das Gesundheitssystem vor enorme Herausforderungen in der Zukunft. Ein möglicher unterstützender Lösungsansatz für die strukturellen und finanziellen Herausforderungen der landwirtschaftlichen, gesundheitlichen und gesellschaftlichen Entwicklungen bietet das Modell Green Care Tagesbetreuung für SeniorInnen. Die Green Care Tagesbetreuung auf landwirtschaftlichen Betrieben ermöglicht vor allem Bäuerinnen mit einer sozialen Grundausbildung den Schritt in die Selbstständigkeit. Um die Umsetzbarkeit von niederländischen Referenzprojekten in Österreich überprüfen zu können, wurden im Rahmen einer empirischen Erhebung Experteninterviews in Österreich sowie in den Niederlanden durchgeführt. Es zeigt sich, dass Green Care Tagesbetreuung für einzelne land- und forstwirtschaftliche Betriebe eine sinnvolle Ergänzung zur bestehenden Betriebsausrichtung darstellen kann, wenn hierfür ein entsprechender Rahmen gegeben ist.

Background: Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a lethal malignancy with a significantly rising rate of incidence and mortality. This study aims to describe the influence of geography, socioeconomic development (based on the Human Development Index [HDI]), gender, and demographic shift on the temporal trends in the global burden of PC., Methods: Data (2020-2040) relating to the incidence, mortality of PC, and demographic shifts based on continents and HDI areas were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2020., Results: PC was associated with a higher socioeconomic status. Asia contributed to the majority of the burden, led by China. Advanced age (≥65 years) contributed to the majority of the burden in all socioeconomic regions except in Medium HDI and Low HDI countries, where the younger population (<65 years) contributed more. Females contributed to a higher burden in certain countries. Future trends for 2040 showed a >60% increase in the incidence and mortality of PC with an associated demographic shift., Conclusion: The global burden of PC is expected to rise significantly over the next few decades regardless of geography, socioeconomic development, age, and gender. Advance knowledge of this data can help to formulate strategies and public health policies to specifically target countries and populations at risk., (© 2023 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Hurricane Maria struck Puerto Rico at a time the island was encountering what had already been described as a humanitarian crisis brought upon by more than a decade of a severe economic crisis. In this manuscript, we provide an overview of the conditions that led to and resulted from La Crisis Boricua, including the record level of net outmigration that occurred even before Hurricane Maria. We also analyze the overrepresentation of non-Puerto-Rican migrants (based on self-identification) in the recent island-mainland migration flow. Moreover, we discuss interstate differences in the socioeconomic characteristics, including the rates of impoverishment, among recently arrived Puerto Ricans from the island in the largest receiving areas. This information can be used to inform policymakers, social workers, and social scientists about potential challenges incoming migrants may encounter as they settle into their mainland communities. Finally, we highlight some of the challenges and opportunities Puerto Rico and Puerto Ricans will continue to face while rebuilding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional common property thinking assumes that a central goal of management is to maintain social-ecological systems in a healthy and resilient state, including maintaining the ability of communities to harvest across time and generations. Little research has been done, however, on how common property systems are affected by demographic shifts, the social status of emerging livelihoods, and the employment aspirations of users for their offspring. An empirical case study from Chile (well known for its common property fisheries) suggests that major socio-cultural shifts are now occurring, with a lack of entry by new fishers and an aging population of existing ones. These types of social and cultural changes are increasingly common through globalization and worldwide economic development, and pose significant policy challenges across broad classes of common property systems. The Chilean case reveals that community adaptive capacity can come at the expense of social-ecological common property systems, and highlights the need to consider the broader context of ‘slow’ social variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite decades of micropollutant (MP) monitoring at wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), we lack a fundamental understanding of the time-varying metabolic processes driving MP biotransformations. To address this knowledge gap, we collected 24-h composite samples from the influent and effluent of the conventional activated sludge (CAS) process at a WWTP over 14 consecutive days. We used liquid chromatography and high-resolution mass spectrometry to (i) quantify 184 MPs in the influent and effluent of the CAS process; (ii) characterize temporal dynamics of MP removal and biotransformation rate constants; and (iii) discover biotransformations linked to temporally variable MP biotransformation rate constants. We measured 120 MPs in at least one sample and 66 MPs in every sample. There were 24 MPs exhibiting temporally variable removal throughout the sampling campaign. We used hierarchical clustering analysis to reveal four temporal trends in biotransformation rate constants and found MPs with specific structural features co-located in the four clusters. We screened our HRMS acquisitions for evidence of specific biotransformations linked to structural features among the 24 MPs. Our analyses reveal that alcohol oxidations, monohydroxylations at secondary or tertiary aliphatic carbons, dihydroxylations of vic-unsubstituted rings, and monohydroxylations at unsubstituted rings are biotransformations that exhibit variability on daily timescales.

Pharmaceutical pollution in surface waters poses risks to human and ecosystem health. Wastewater treatment facilities are primary sources of pharmaceutical pollutants, but little is known about the factors that affect drugs entering the wastewater stream. This paper investigates the effects of student pharmaceutical use and disposal behaviors and an annual demographic shift on pharmaceutical pollution in a university town. We sampled wastewater effluent during a ten-day annual spring student move-out period at the University of Vermont. We then interpreted these data in light of survey results that investigated pharmaceutical purchasing, use, and disposal practices among the university student population. Surveys indicated that the majority of student respondents purchased pharmaceuticals in the previous year. Many students reported having leftover drugs, though only a small portion disposed of them, mainly in the trash. We detected 51 pharmaceuticals in 80% or more of the wastewater effluent samples collected over the ten-day sampling period. Several increased in concentration after students left the area. Concentrations of caffeine and nicotine decreased weakly. Drug disposal among this university student population does not appear to be a major source of pharmaceuticals in wastewater. Increases in pharmaceutical concentration after the students left campus can be tied to an increase in the seasonal use of allergy medications directly related to pollen, as well as a demographic shift to a year-round older population, which supports national data that older people use larger volumes and different types of pharmaceuticals than the younger student population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Social Security / SGD-Sosyal Güvenlik Dergisi is the property of Journal of Social Security / SGD-Sosyal Güvenlik Dergisi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)