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IntroductionNutrition and physical activity are key components for the prevention of cardiovascular disease. There remains a paucity of trial data on the effect of specific nutritional interventions on physical activity and sedentary time. One question is how a common nutrient-dense food such as avocado may impact physical activity and sedentary time in Hispanic/Latino families, a group that reports the lowest levels of physical activity.DesignThis is a 6-month clustered RCT.Setting/participantsSeventy-two families (235 individuals) who identified as Hispanic/Latino were enrolled through the San Ysidro Health Center (San Diego, CA) between April 2017 and June 2018.InterventionAfter a 2-week run-in period, 35 families were randomized to the intervention arm (14 avocados/family/week), and 37 families were assigned to the control arm (3 avocados/family/week).Main outcome measuresLinear mixed-effects models were used to assess changes in physical activity (MET minutes per week) between the groups during the 6-month trial. Secondary outcomes included sedentary time (minutes/week), BMI, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures.ResultsAn adherence goal of >80% was achieved for both arms. Total mean physical activity increased by 2,197 MET minutes per week more in the intervention group (p

We investigated inter-arm systolic blood pressure (sIAD) difference, reproducibility, and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). We hypothesized that higher sIAD values have low prevalence and nonpersistence over years, but that CVD risk is higher starting from the time of first high absolute sIAD. In Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants (n = 6725, 53% female, 45-84 years old), Doppler systolic blood pressure (SBP) measurements were made in both arms (10-minute interval) thrice over 9.5 years. Proportional hazards for CVD (coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, peripheral arterial disease (PAD)) over 16.4 years were tested according to time-varying absolute inter-arm difference with covariates: (1) age, gender, race, and clinic; (2) model 1 plus height, heart rate, BP, antihypertensives, BMI, smoking status, lipids, lipid lowering medication, and diabetes. High sIAD was not persistent across exams. Maximum absolute sIAD ≥ 15 mmHg was found at least once in 815 persons. Maximum absolute sIAD had a graded relationship with incident stroke or PAD: 6.2% events; model 2 hazard ratio per 10 mmHg 1.34 (95% CI, 1.15-1.56) and this risk was approximately doubled for maximum absolute sIAD ≥ 15 mmHg vs 0-4 mmHg. Total CVD risk (18.4% events) was increased only for maximum absolute sIAD ≥25 mmHg. Associations with incident CVD did not differ for higher SBP in left vs right arm. A higher maximum absolute sIAD at any exam was associated with greater risk for stroke and PAD especially for values ≥ 15 mmHg, and ≥25 mmHg for other CVD. Measuring SBP between arms may help identify individuals at risk for CVD.

BackgroundThe Agatston coronary artery calcium (CAC) score provides robust cardiovascular disease risk prediction but upweights plaque area by a density factor. Density, however, has been shown to be inversely associated with events. Using CAC volume and density separately improves risk prediction, but it is unclear how to apply this method clinically. We aimed to evaluate the association between CAC density and cardiovascular disease across the spectrum of CAC volume to better understand how to incorporate these metrics into a single score.MethodsWe performed an analysis of MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) participants with detectable CAC to evaluate the association between CAC density and events by level of CAC volume using multivariable Cox regression models.ResultsIn a cohort of 3316 participants, there was a significant interaction (P130 mm3 was not significant (hazard ratio, 0.82 per unit of density [95% CI, 0.55-1.22]).ConclusionsThe lower risk for CHD associated with higher CAC density varied by level of volume, and volume ≤130 mm3 is a potentially clinically useful cut point. Further study is needed to integrate these findings into a unified CAC scoring method.

Background and aimsWe aimed to identify predictors of change in direct measures of coronary artery calcium (CAC) volume and density in South Asian participants.MethodsWe used data from participants in the Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America (MASALA) study with prevalent CAC and direct measures of CAC by serial computed tomography (CT) exams (2010-2013, 2016-2018). We examined the distribution of incident CAC volume and peak density, as well as progression and identified risk factors for progression of change in volume and density in multivariable models.ResultsThe study cohort consisted of 102 participants with incident CAC and 285 with CAC progression. CAC volume and density were highest, and incident CAC was most common in the left anterior descending artery (LAD). The greatest progression in volume was in the right coronary artery and the greatest change in density was in the left main. In linear regression models for CAC progression adjusted for baseline density, volume, risk factors, smoking (β +190.1, p = 0.02), baseline volume (β +0.24 per mm3, p

ObjectivesThe radial artery pulse waveform is a continuous measure of pressure throughout the cardiac cycle, and thus can provide more information than just systolic and diastolic blood pressures. New indices based on a Windkessel model of the waveform, PTC1 and PTC2, are related to arterial compliance and add information for prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease, stroke, myocardial infarction) but their association with heart failure is unknown.MethodsAmong 6229 adults (mean age 62 years) from four race/ethnic groups who were initially free of clinical cardiovascular disease and heart failure in 2000-2002, we evaluated the associations of baseline PTC1 and PTC2 with incident heart failure.ResultsMean ± standard deviation PTC1 and PTC2 were 394 ± 334 and 94 ± 46 ms, respectively. During a median of 15.7 years follow-up, there were 357 heart failure events (148 with reduced, 150 with preserved, and 59 with unknown ejection fraction). After adjustment for traditional risk factors, the hazard ratio for heart failure per 1 standard deviation higher PTC2 was 0.73 (95% confidence interval: 0.63--0.85). Higher PTC2 was also significantly associated with lower risk of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (hazard ratio = 0.67; 95% confidence interval: 0.56--0.80). There was no evidence of a significant association between PTC2 and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction or between PTC1 and heart failure.ConclusionThe PTC2 measure of the radial artery pulse waveform may represent a novel phenotype related to heart failure, especially heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.

Avocados are a nutrient-dense plant-food, but limited trial-derived evidence exists about the effects of avocado intake on family nutritional status. We investigated the impact of two levels of avocado allotment, plus a standard nutrition education intervention on the nutritional status of Hispanic/Latino families. Seventy-two families consisting of at least three members of ≥5 years of age and residing in the same home, free of severe chronic disease, not on specific diets, and self-identified of Hispanic heritage, were randomized to one of two levels of avocado allotment (low = 3/week/family or high = 14/week/family) for 6 months plus 12 bi-weekly nutrition education sessions. The primary outcomes included change in a family's total energy and macro- and micronutrient intakes. Primary analysis was intention-to-treat with unpaired, two-sided t-tests to assess mean changes between groups at 6 months. At 6 months, the high avocado allotment group had a significant reduction in energy intake, carbohydrate, animal and vegetable protein, saturated and polyunsaturated fat, calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, iron, and vitamin D intakes (all p < 0.05). A high allotment of avocados significantly reduced self-reported energy intake by 29% kcal/family/day, compared to a 3% kcal/family/day reduction in families who received a low allotment. Culturally-appropriate plant-food interventions may alter the nutritional status of at-risk families.

BackgroundWe investigated associations between perirenal fat thickness and atherosclerotic calcification in six different vascular beds.MethodsUsing a community-based cohort (n=3,919), perirenal fat thickness was estimated from computed tomography scans. It was classified as Q1 (the lowest quartile) to Q4 (the highest quartile) in each sex. Calcification in the carotid arteries, coronary arteries, thoracic aorta, abdominal aorta, iliac arteries, and renal arteries was evaluated.ResultsPerirenal fat thickness was associated with older age (P

IntroductionAgricultural pesticide spray periods increase the pesticide exposure potential of children living nearby and growing evidence indicates that they may affect children's health. We examined the association of time following a heightened agricultural production period, the Mother's Day flower harvest (May), with children's blood pressure (BP).MethodsWe included cross-sectional information of 313 children ages 4-9 years in Ecuadorian agricultural communities (the ESPINA study). Examinations occurred during a period of low flower production, but within 63-100 days (mean = 81.5, SD = 10.9) following the Mother's Day harvest. BP was measured twice using a pediatric sphygmomanometer and BP percentiles appropriate for age, gender and height were calculated.ResultsParticipants were 51% male, 1.6% hypertensive and 7.7% had elevated BP. The mean (SD) BP percentiles were: systolic: 51.7 (23.9); diastolic: 33.3 (20.3). There was an inverse relationship between of time after the spray season with percentiles of systolic (difference [β] per 10.9 days after the harvest: -4.3 [95%CI: -6.9, -1.7]) and diastolic BP (β: -7.5 [-9.6, -5.4]) after adjusting for race, heart rate and BMI-for-age z-score. A curvilinear association with diastolic BP was observed. For every 10.9 days that a child was examined sooner after the harvest, the OR of elevated BP/hypertension doubled (OR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.3, 3.1). Time after the harvest was positively associated with acetylcholinesterase.ConclusionsChildren examined sooner after a heightened pesticide spray period had higher blood pressure and pesticide exposure markers than children examined later. Further studies with multiple exposure-outcome measures across pesticide spray periods are needed.

ObjectiveA 20% or greater decrease in the ankle brachial index (ABI) with exercise is suggestive of peripheral artery disease (PAD), and could identify patients with an increased mortality risk. The predictors of a change in the ABI with exercise have received little attention.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional analysis. Two hundred and sixty five participants of the San Diego Population Study with a resting ABI between 0.90 and 1.10 performed 50 heel raises and immediately had their ABIs measured again. The relationship between the change in the ABI with exercise and multiple potential risk prediction variables were examined using linear regression. In addition, the categorical percent change in the ABI with exercise was analysed by multinomial logistic regression.ResultsThe mean age of participants was 71.8 years, and 80.4% were female. At rest, the average ABI was 1.04 (SD 0.04) before and 0.94 (SD 0.13) after exercise; a mean decrease of 9.5%. In analyses of ABI change as a continuous variable, higher age, any smoking history, and a diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were associated with a significant decrease in the ABI with exercise (p = .01, .04, and .03, respectively). Categorical analyses of the risk factors associated with a 20% or greater ABI decrease with exercise confirmed these results. Congestive heart failure was associated with an increased ABI with exercise (p = .04) in continuous ABI change analyses only.ConclusionsOlder age, a positive history of smoking, and a history of COPD were independently and significantly associated with a greater ABI decrease with exercise. These risk variables may help identify persons with subclinical PAD.

ObjectivesRecently, the density score of coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been shown to be associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events at any level of CAC volume. Whether risk factors for CAC volume and CAC density are similar or distinct is unknown. We sought to evaluate the associations of CVD risk factors with CAC volume and CAC density scores.MethodsBaseline measurements from 6814 participants free of clinical CVD were collected for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Participants with detectable CAC (n=3398) were evaluated for this study. Multivariable linear regression models were used to evaluate independent associations of CVD risk factors with CAC volume and CAC density scores.ResultsWhereas most CVD risk factors were associated with higher CAC volume scores, many risk factors were associated with lower CAC density scores. For example, diabetes was associated with a higher natural logarithm (ln) transformed CAC volume score (standardised β=0.44 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.58) ln-units) but a lower CAC density score (β=-0.07 (-0.12 to -0.02) density units). Chinese, African-American and Hispanic race/ethnicity were each associated with lower ln CAC volume scores (β=-0.62 (-0.83to -0.41), -0.52 (-0.64 to -0.39) and -0.40 (-0.55 to -0.26) ln-units, respectively) and higher CAC density scores (β= 0.41 (0.34 to 0.47), 0.18 (0.12 to 0.23) and 0.21 (0.15 to 0.26) density units, respectively) relative to non-Hispanic White.ConclusionsIn a cohort free of clinical CVD, CVD risk factors are differentially associated with CAC volume and density scores, with many CVD risk factors inversely associated with the CAC density score after controlling for the CAC volume score. These findings suggest complex associations between CVD risk factors and these components of CAC.

BackgroundThe ankle-brachial index (ABI) is inadequate to detect early-stage atherosclerotic disease, when interventions to prevent functional decline may be the most effective. We determined associations of femoral artery atherosclerosis with physical functioning, across the spectrum of the ABI, and within the normal ABI range.Methods and resultsIn 2007-2011, 1103 multiethnic men and women participated in the San Diego Population Study, and completed all components of the summary performance score. Using Doppler ultrasound, superficial and common femoral intima media thickness and plaques were ascertained. Logistic regression was used to assess associations of femoral atherosclerosis with the summary performance score and its individual components. Models were adjusted for demographics, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, lipids, and kidney function. In adjusted models, among participants with a normal-range ABI (1.00-1.30), the highest tertile of superficial intima media thickness was associated with lower odds of a perfect summary performance score of 12 (odds ratio=0.56 [0.36, 0.87], P=0.009), and lower odds of a 4-m walk score of 4 (0.34 [0.16, 0.73], P=0.006) and chair rise score of 4 (0.56 [0.34, 0.94], P=0.03). Plaque presence (0.53 [0.29, 0.99], P=0.04) and greater total plaque burden (0.61 [0.43, 0.87], P=0.006) were associated with worse 4-m walk performance in the normal-range ABI group. Higher superficial intima media thickness was associated with lower summary performance score in all individuals (P=0.02).ConclusionsFindings suggest that use of femoral artery atherosclerosis measures may be effective in individuals with a normal-range ABI, especially, for example, those with diabetes mellitus or a family history of peripheral artery disease, when detection can lead to earlier intervention to prevent functional declines and improve quality of life.

BackgroundPeripheral artery disease (PAD) affects millions of people, both in the U.S. and worldwide. Even when asymptomatic, PAD and the ankle-brachial index (ABI), the major clinical diagnostic criterion for PAD, are associated with decreased functional status and quality of life, as well as mobility impairment. Whether the ABI or change in the ABI predicts decline in functional status over time has not been previously assessed in a population-based setting.MethodsParticipants were 812 non-Hispanic white, African American, Hispanic, and Asian men and women from the San Diego Population Study (SDPS) who attended a baseline examination (1994-1998), and follow-up clinic examination approximately 11 years later. The Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form (SF-36) was obtained at both the baseline and follow-up examinations, and the summary performance score (SPS) at the follow-up examination. Associations of the baseline ABI and clinically relevant change in the ABI (

We reviewed published MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) study articles concerning peripheral arterial disease, subclavian stenosis (SS), abdominal aortic calcium (AAC), and thoracic artery calcium (TAC). Important findings include, compared to non-Hispanic whites, lower ankle-brachial index (ABI) and more SS in African Americans, and higher ABI and less SS in Hispanic and Chinese Americans. Abnormal ABI and brachial pressure differences were associated with other subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) measures. Both very high and low ABI independently predicted increased CVD events. Looking at aortic measures, TAC and AAC were significantly associated with other subclinical CVD measures. Comparisons of AAC with coronary artery calcium (CAC) showed that both were less common in ethnic minority groups. However, although CAC was much more common in men than in women in multivariable analysis, this was not true of AAC. Also, when AAC and CAC were adjusted for each other in multivariable analysis, there was a stronger association for AAC than for CAC with CVD and total mortality.

BackgroundChronic venous disease is common and shares some risk factors with venous thromboembolism (VTE). Several genetic loci have been discovered and well-replicated for VTE in European descent populations. We examined associations of a genetic risk score (GRS), comprising known VTE loci, with chronic venous disease.MethodsThe San Diego Population Study (SDPS) is a multi-ethnic cohort that evaluated 2404 men and women aged 29-91 from 1994 to 1998 for chronic venous disease. The current study includes 1447 participants genotyped for 33 variants in 22 established VTE risk loci. Using these variants, unweighted and weighted GRS were constructed. Logistic regression was used to examine associations with venous disease.ResultsIn non-Hispanic whites, African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asians, each standard deviation increment higher of the unweighted 33-SNP GRS was associated with a 1.45-fold (95% CI (1.26, 1.67)), 1.74-fold (1.18, 2.55), a 1.80-fold (1.30, 2.51), and 1.88-fold (1.30, 2.73) greater odds, respectively, for moderate plus severe disease. The difference in c-statistics was significant between a known venous risk factor model and a model adding the 33-SNP GRS for whites (p=0.008), African-Americans (0.03), and Hispanics (p=0.04), with marginal significance in Asians (p=0.06).ConclusionsGRS comprising variants primarily from VTE findings in European descent populations were associated with chronic venous disease across all race/ethnic groups, and contributed significantly to prediction, indicating some level of generalizability to other race/ethnic groups. Future work should focus on more in depth examination of racial/ethnic group genetic architecture in relation to chronic venous disease.

BackgroundThe prognostic utility of the ankle-brachial index (ABI) may be hampered in persons with diabetes due to peripheral arterial stiffening in the ankles. Stiffening of toe arteries occurs infrequently in diabetes. We aimed to determine the nature of the relationship of the toe-brachial index (TBI) and ABI with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and to determine whether the associations are modified in individuals with diabetes.MethodsIndividuals with clinically suspected atherosclerotic peripheral arterial disease who underwent ABI and TBI measurements in a vascular laboratory were monitored longitudinally for CVD mortality.ResultsAmong 469 participants (89% men), the mean age was 68 ± 9 years, and 36% had diabetes. The mean ABI was 0.83 ± 0.28 and the mean TBI was 0.60 ± 0.24. During median 7.0 years of follow-up, there were 158 CVD deaths. The association of the ABI categories with CVD deaths differed in diabetic vs nondiabetic participants (P = .002 for interaction). In contrast, the association of the TBI categories with CVD deaths was similar, irrespective of diabetes status (P = .17 for interaction). Among diabetic patients, a U-shaped relationship was observed between ABI categories and CVD death: those with low (1.30) ABIs were both at higher risk than those with normal ABIs (range, 0.90-1.30). In nondiabetic patients, association of ABI categories with CVD death was linear, such that those with an ABI >1.30 were at the lowest risk, whereas those with an ABI

ObjectiveTo evaluate the predictive value of abdominal aortic calcium (AAC) for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) independent of coronary artery calcium (CAC).Approach and resultsWe evaluated the association of AAC with CVD in 1974 men and women aged 45 to 84 years randomly selected from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants who had complete AAC and CAC data from computed tomographic scans. AAC and CAC were each divided into following 3 percentile categories: 0 to 50th, 51st to 75th, and 76th to 100th. During a mean of 5.5 years of follow-up, there were 50 hard coronary heart disease events, 83 hard CVD events, 30 fatal CVD events, and 105 total deaths. In multivariable-adjusted Cox models including both AAC and CAC, comparing the fourth quartile with the ≤ 50th percentile, AAC and CAC were each significantly and independently predictive of hard coronary heart disease and hard CVD, with hazard ratios ranging from 2.4 to 4.4. For CVD mortality, the hazard ratio was highly significant for the fourth quartile of AAC, 5.9 (P=0.01), whereas the association for the fourth quartile of CAC (hazard ratio, 2.1) was not significant. For total mortality, the fourth quartile hazard ratio for AAC was 2.7 (P=0.001), and for CAC, it was 1.9, P=0.04. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed improvement for both AAC and CAC separately, although improvement was greater with CAC for hard coronary heart disease and hard CVD, and greater with AAC for CVD mortality and total mortality. Sensitivity analyses defining AAC and CAC as continuous variables mirrored these results.ConclusionsAAC and CAC predicted hard coronary heart disease and hard CVD events independent of one another. Only AAC was independently related to CVD mortality, and AAC showed a stronger association than CAC with total mortality.

ObjectiveTo examine the interrelations among, and risk marker associations for, superficial and deep venous events-superficial venous thrombosis (SVT), deep venous thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE).DesignCross-sectional analysis.SettingSan Diego, California, USA.Participants2404 men and women aged 40-79 years from four ethnic groups: non-Hispanic White, Hispanic, African-American and Asian. The study sample was drawn from current and former staff and employees of the University of California, San Diego and their spouses/significant others.Outcome measuresSuperficial and deep venous events, specifically SVT, DVT, PE and combined deep venous events (DVE) comprising DVT and PE.ResultsSignificant correlates on multivariable analysis were, for SVT: female sex, ethnicity (African-American=protective), lower educational attainment, immobility and family history of varicose veins. For DVT and DVE, significant correlates included: heavy smoking, immobility and family history of DVEs (borderline for DVE). For PE, significant predictors included immobility and, in contrast to DVT, blood pressure (BP, systolic or diastolic). In women, oestrogen use duration for hormone replacement therapy, in all and among oestrogen users, predicted PE and DVE, respectively.ConclusionsThese findings fortify evidence for known risk correlates/predictors for venous disease, such as family history, hormone use and immobility. New risk associations are shown. Striking among these is an association of PE, but not DVT, to elevated BP: we conjecture PE may serve as cause rather than consequence. Future studies should evaluate the temporal direction of this association. Oxidative stress and cell energy compromise are proposed to explain and predict many risk factors, operating through cell-death mediated triggering of coagulation activation.

ImportanceCoronary artery calcium (CAC), measured by computed tomography (CT), has strong predictive value for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The standard CAC score is the Agatston, which is weighted upward for greater calcium density. However, some data suggest increased plaque calcium density may be protective for CVD.ObjectiveTo determine the independent associations of CAC volume and CAC density with incident CVD events.Design, setting, and participantsMulticenter, prospective observational MESA study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), conducted at 6 US field centers of 3398 men and women from 4 race/ethnicity groups; non-Hispanic white, African American, Hispanic, and Chinese. Participants were aged 45-84 years, free of known CVD at baseline, had CAC greater than 0 on their baseline CT, and were followed up through October 2010.Main outcomes and measuresIncident coronary heart disease (CHD) and all CVD eventsResultsDuring a median of 7.6 years of follow-up, there were 175 CHD events and an additional 90 other CVD events for a total of 265 CVD events. With both lnCAC volume and CAC density scores in the same multivariable model, the lnCAC volume score showed an independent association with incident CHD, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.81 (95% CI, 1.47-2.23) per standard deviation (SD = 1.6) increase, absolute risk increase 6.1 per 1000 person-years, and for CVD an HR of 1.68 (95% CI, 1.42-1.98) per SD increase, absolute risk increase 7.9 per 1000 person-years. Conversely, the CAC density score showed an independent inverse association, with an HR of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.58-0.91) per SD (SD = 0.7) increase for CHD, absolute risk decrease 5.5 per 1000 person-years, and an HR of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.60-0.85) per SD increase for CVD, absolute risk decrease 8.2 per 1000 person years. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed significantly improved risk prediction with the addition of the density score to a model containing the volume score for both CHD and CVD. In the intermediate CVD risk group, the area under the curve for CVD increased from 0.53 (95% CI, 0.48-0.59) to 0.59 (95% CI, 0.54-0.64), P = .02.Conclusions and relevanceCAC volume was positively and independently associated with CHD and CVD risk. At any level of CAC volume, CAC density was inversely and significantly associated with CHD and CVD risk. The role of CAC density should be considered when evaluating current CAC scoring systems.

BACKGROUND: Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. METHODS: We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. FINDINGS: In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimers disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted. INTERPRETATION: Population growth, increased average age of the worlds population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundNon-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs).MethodsOf the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis.FindingsGlobal prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa.InterpretationRates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.