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Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be one of the deadliest infectious diseases in the world, causing ~1.5 million deaths every year. The World Health Organization initiated anEnd TB Strategythat aims to reduce TB-related deaths in 2035 by 95%. Recent research goals have focused on discovering more effective and more patient-friendly antibiotic drug regimens to increase patient compliance and decrease emergence of resistant TB. Moxifloxacin is one promising antibiotic that may improve the current standard regimen by shortening treatment time. Clinical trials andin vivomouse studies suggest that regimens containing moxifloxacin have better bactericidal activity. However, testing every possible combination regimen with moxifloxacin eitherin vivoor clinically is not feasible due to experimental and clinical limitations. To identify better regimens more systematically, we simulated pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics of various regimens (with and without moxifloxacin) to evaluate efficacies, and then compared our predictions to both clinical trials and nonhuman primate studies performed herein. We usedGranSim, our well-established hybrid agent-based model that simulates granuloma formation and antibiotic treatment, for this task. In addition, we established a multiple-objective optimization pipeline usingGranSimto discover optimized regimens based on treatment objectives of interest, i.e., minimizing total drug dosage and lowering time needed to sterilize granulomas. Our approach can efficiently test many regimens and successfully identify optimal regimens to inform pre-clinical studies or clinical trials and ultimately accelerate the TB regimen discovery process.Author summaryTuberculosis (TB) is a top global health concern and treatment for TB requires multiple antibiotics taken for long periods of time, which is challenging for TB patients. Therefore, identifying regimens that are more effective and more patient-friendly than the standard treatment is urgently needed. It is also known that non-compliance leads to the development of drug resistant TB. In this work, we pair computational and experimental models to predict new regimens for the treatment of TB that optimize how fast bacteria are cleared using minimal dosage. We apply novel approaches to this goal and validate our predictions using a non-human primate model. Our findings suggest that systems pharmacological modeling should be employed as a method to narrow the design space for drug regimens for tuberculosis and other diseases as well.

INTRODUCTION: Mathematical and computational modeling have a long history of uncovering mechanisms and making predictions for biological systems. However, to create a model that can provide relevant quantitative predictions, models must first be calibrated by recapitulating existing biological datasets from that system. Current calibration approaches may not be appropriate for complex biological models because: 1) many attempt to recapitulate only a single aspect of the experimental data (such as a median trend) or 2) Bayesian techniques require specification of parameter priors and likelihoods to experimental data that cannot always be confidently assigned. A new calibration protocol is needed to calibrate complex models when current approaches fall short. METHODS: Herein, we develop CaliPro, an iterative, model-agnostic calibration protocol that utilizes parameter density estimation to refine parameter space and calibrate to temporal biological datasets. An important aspect of CaliPro is the user-defined pass set definition, which specifies how the model might successfully recapitulate experimental data. We define the appropriate settings to use CaliPro. RESULTS: We illustrate the usefulness of CaliPro through four examples including predator-prey, infectious disease transmission, and immune response models. We show that CaliPro works well for both deterministic, continuous model structures as well as stochastic, discrete models and illustrate that CaliPro can work across diverse calibration goals. CONCLUSIONS: We present CaliPro, a new method for calibrating complex biological models to a range of experimental outcomes. In addition to expediting calibration, CaliPro may be useful in already calibrated parameter spaces to target and isolate specific model behavior for further analysis. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s12195-020-00650-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, continues to be a major global health problem. Lung granulomas are organized structures of host immune cells that function to contain the bacteria. Cytokine expression is a critical component of the protective immune response, but inappropriate cytokine expression can exacerbate TB. Although the importance of proinflammatory cytokines in controlling M. tuberculosis infection has been established, the effects of anti-inflammatory cytokines, such as IL-10, in TB are less well understood. To investigate the role of IL-10, we used an Ab to neutralize IL-10 in cynomolgus macaques during M. tuberculosis infection. Anti–IL-10–treated nonhuman primates had similar overall disease outcomes compared with untreated control nonhuman primates, but there were immunological changes in granulomas and lymph nodes from anti–IL-10–treated animals. There was less thoracic inflammation and increased cytokine production in lung granulomas and lymph nodes from IL-10–neutralized animals at 3–4 wk postinfection compared with control animals. At 8 wk postinfection, lung granulomas from IL-10–neutralized animals had reduced cytokine production but increased fibrosis relative to control animals. Although these immunological changes did not affect the overall disease burden during the first 8 wk of infection, we paired computational modeling to explore late infection dynamics. Our findings support that early changes occurring in the absence of IL-10 may lead to better bacterial control later during infection. These unique datasets provide insight into the contribution of IL-10 to the immunological balance necessary for granulomas to control bacterial burden and disease pathology in M. tuberculosis infection.

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), is one of the world’s deadliest infectious diseases and remains a significant global health burden. TB disease and pathology can present clinically across a spectrum of outcomes, ranging from total sterilization of infection to active disease. Much remains unknown about the biology that drives an individual towards various clinical outcomes as it is challenging to experimentally address specific mechanisms driving clinical outcomes. Furthermore, it is unknown whether numbers of immune cells in the blood accurately reflect ongoing events during infection within human lungs. Herein, we utilize a systems biology approach by developing a whole-host model of the immune response to Mtb across multiple physiologic and time scales. This model, called HostSim, tracks events at the cellular, granuloma, organ, and host scale and represents the first whole-host, multi-scale model of the immune response following Mtb infection. We show that this model can capture various aspects of human and non-human primate TB disease and predict that biomarkers in the blood may only faithfully represent events in the lung at early time points after infection. We posit that HostSim, as a first step toward personalized digital twins in TB research, offers a powerful computational tool that can be used in concert with experimental approaches to understand and predict events about various aspects of TB disease and therapeutics.

SUMMARYMycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), is a global health concern, yearly resulting in 10 million new cases of active TB. Immunologic investigation of lung granulomas is essential for understanding host control of bacterial replication. We identified and compared the pathological, cellular, and functional differences in granulomas at 4, 12, and 20 weeks post-infection in Chinese cynomolgus macaques. Original granulomas differed in transcription factor expression within adaptive lymphocytes with those at 12 weeks showing higher frequencies of CD8+T-bet+ T cells, while increases in CD4+T-bet+ T cells were observed at 20 weeks post-infection. The appearance of T-bet+ adaptive T cells at 12 and 20 weeks was coincident with a reduction in bacterial burden, suggesting their critical role in Mtb control. This study highlights the evolution of T cell responses within lung granulomas, suggesting that vaccines promoting the development and migration of T-bet+ T cells would enhance mycobacterial control.

According to the World Health Organization, tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from infectious disease worldwide (WHO, 2017). While there is no effective vaccine against adult pulmonary TB, more than a dozen vaccine candidates are in the clinical trial pipeline. These include both pre-exposure vaccines to prevent initial infections and post-exposure vaccines to prevent reactivation of latent disease. Many epidemiological models have been used to study TB, but most have not included a continuous age structure and the possibility of both pre- and post-exposure vaccination. Incorporating age-dependent death rates, disease properties, and social contact data allows for more realistic modeling of disease spread. We propose a continuous age-structured model for the epidemiology of tuberculosis with pre- and post-exposure vaccination. We use uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to make predictions about the efficacy of different vaccination strategies in a non-endemic setting (United States) and an endemic setting (Cambodia). In particular, we determine optimal age groups to target for pre-exposure and post-exposure vaccination in both settings. We find that the optimal age groups tend to be younger for Cambodia than for the US, and that post-exposure vaccination has a significantly larger effect than pre-exposure vaccination in the US.

Neutrophil infiltration into tuberculous granulomas is often associated with higher bacteria loads and severe disease but the basis for this relationship is not well understood. To better elucidate the connection between neutrophils and pathology in primate systems, we paired data from experimental studies with our next generation computational model GranSim to identify neutrophil-related factors, including neutrophil recruitment, lifespan, and intracellular bacteria numbers, that drive granuloma-level outcomes. We predict mechanisms underlying spatial organization of neutrophils within granulomas and identify how neutrophils contribute to granuloma dissemination. We also performed virtual deletion and depletion of neutrophils within granulomas and found that neutrophils play a nuanced role in determining granuloma outcome, promoting uncontrolled bacterial growth in some and working to contain bacterial growth in others. Here, we present three key results: We show that neutrophils can facilitate local dissemination of granulomas and thereby enable the spread of infection. We suggest that neutrophils influence CFU burden during both innate and adaptive immune responses, implying that they may be targets for therapeutic interventions during later stages of infection. Further, through the use of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, we predict which neutrophil processes drive granuloma severity and structure.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the deadliest infectious disease worldwide. The design of new treatments for TB is hindered by the large number of candidate drugs, drug combinations, dosing choices, and complex pharmaco-kinetics/dynamics (PK/PD). Here we study the interplay of these factors in designing combination therapies by linking a machine-learning model, INDIGO-MTB, which predicts in vitro drug interactions using drug transcriptomics, with a multi-scale model of drug PK/PD and pathogen-immune interactions called GranSim. We calculate an in vivo drug interaction score (iDIS) from dynamics of drug diffusion, spatial distribution, and activity within lesions against various pathogen sub-populations. The iDIS of drug regimens evaluated against non-replicating bacteria significantly correlates with efficacy metrics from clinical trials. Our approach identifies mechanisms that can amplify synergistic or mitigate antagonistic drug interactions in vivo by modulating the relative distribution of drugs. Our mechanistic framework enables efficient evaluation of in vivo drug interactions and optimization of combination therapies.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), kills more individuals worldwide per year than any other infectious agent. As the hallmark of TB, lung granulomas are complex structures composed of immune cells that interact with and surround bacteria, infected cells, and a necrotic core. This interaction leads to diverse granuloma outcomes across time, ranging from bacterial sterilization to uncontrolled bacterial growth, as well as diverse spatial structures. At this time, there are no systematic quantitative methods to classify the formation, function, and spatial characteristics of granulomas. This type of analysis would enable better understanding and prediction of granuloma behaviors that have known associations with poor clinical outcomes for TB patients. Herein, we develop a temporal and spatial analysis framework for TB granulomas using a systems biology approach combining in silico granuloma modeling, geographic information systems, topological data analysis, and machine learning. We apply this framework to simulated granulomas to understand temporal granuloma dynamics, quantify granuloma spatial structure, and predict the relationship between granuloma structure and bacterial growth. As a proof-of-concept, we apply our in silico predictions to in vivo derived data to test our framework for future applications and as a personalized medicine intervention.

Highlights • Casual and workplace contacts are main drivers of disease spread. • The second wave of infections could be significantly larger than the first wave. • Reopening speed affects timing but not magnitude of second peak. • Reduced casual contacts decrease and delay the second wave of infections., The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the patchwork nature of disease epidemics, with infection spread dynamics varying wildly across countries and across states within the US. To explore this issue, we study and predict the spread of COVID-19 in Washtenaw County, MI, which is home to University of Michigan and Eastern Michigan University, and in close proximity to Detroit, MI, a major epicenter of the epidemic in Michigan. We apply a discrete and stochastic network-based modeling framework allowing us to track every individual in the county. In this framework, we construct contact networks based on synthetic population datasets specific for Washtenaw County that are derived from US Census datasets. We assign individuals to households, workplaces, schools, and group quarters (such as prisons or long term care facilities). In addition, we assign casual contacts to each individual at random. Using this framework, we explicitly simulate Michigan-specific government-mandated workplace and school closures as well as social distancing measures. We perform sensitivity analyses to identify key model parameters and mechanisms contributing to the observed disease burden in the three months following the first observed cases of COVID-19 in Michigan. We then consider several scenarios for relaxing restrictions and reopening workplaces to predict what actions would be most prudent. In particular, we consider the effects of 1) different timings for reopening, and 2) different levels of workplace vs. casual contact re-engagement. We find that delaying reopening does not reduce the magnitude of the second peak of cases, but only delays it. Reducing levels of casual contact, on the other hand, both delays and lowers the second peak. Through simulations and sensitivity analyses, we explore mechanisms driving the magnitude and timing of a second wave of infections upon re-opening. We find that the most significant factors are workplace and casual contacts and protective measures taken by infected individuals who have sought care. This model can be adapted to other US counties using synthetic population databases and data specific to those regions.

Current methods to optimize vaccine dose are purely empirically based, whereas in the drug development field, dosing determinations use far more advanced quantitative methodology to accelerate decision-making. Applying these established methods in the field of vaccine development may reduce the currently large clinical trial sample sizes, long time frames, high costs, and ultimately have a better potential to save lives. We propose the field of immunostimulation/immunodynamic (IS/ID) modelling, which aims to translate mathematical frameworks used for drug dosing towards optimizing vaccine dose decision-making. Analogous to PK/PD modelling, IS/ID modelling approaches apply mathematical models to describe the underlying mechanisms by which the immune response is stimulated by vaccination (IS) and the resulting measured immune response dynamics (ID). To move IS/ID modelling forward, existing datasets and further data on vaccine allometry and dose-dependent dynamics need to be generated and collate, requiring a collaborative environment with input from academia, industry, regulators, governmental and non-governmental agencies to share modelling expertise, and connect modellers to vaccine data., 11 pages, 1 Figure

The architectural complexity of the lung is crucial to its ability to function as an organ of gas exchange; the branching tree structure of the airways transforms the tracheal cross-section of only a few square centimeters to a blood-gas barrier with a surface area of tens of square meters and a thickness on the order of a micron or less. Connective tissue comprised largely of collagen and elastic fibers provides structural integrity for this intricate and delicate system. Homeostatic maintenance of this connective tissue, via a balance between catabolic and anabolic enzyme-driven processes, is crucial to life. Accordingly, when homeostasis is disrupted by the excessive production of connective tissue, lung function deteriorates rapidly with grave consequences leading to chronic lung conditions such as pulmonary fibrosis. Understanding how pulmonary fibrosis develops and alters the link between lung structure and function is crucial for diagnosis, prognosis, and therapy. Further information gained could help elaborate how the healing process breaks down leading to chronic disease. Our understanding of fibrotic disease is greatly aided by the intersection of wet lab studies and mathematical and computational modeling. In the present review we will discuss how multi-scale modeling has facilitated our understanding of pulmonary fibrotic disease as well as identified opportunities that remain open and have produced techniques that can be incorporated into this field by borrowing approaches from multi-scale models of fibrosis beyond the lung.

Immune responses to pathogens are complex and not well understood in many diseases, and this is especially true for infections by persistent pathogens. One mechanism that allows for long-term control of infection while also preventing an over-zealous inflammatory response from causing extensive tissue damage is for the immune system to balance pro- and anti-inflammatory cells and signals. This balance is dynamic and the immune system responds to cues from both host and pathogen, maintaining a steady state across multiple scales through continuous feedback. Identifying the signals, cells, cytokines, and other immune response factors that mediate this balance over time has been difficult using traditional research strategies. Computational modeling studies based on data from traditional systems can identify how this balance contributes to immunity. Here we provide evidence from both experimental and mathematical/computational studies to support the concept of a dynamic balance operating during persistent and other infection scenarios. We focus mainly on tuberculosis, currently the leading cause of death due to infectious disease in the world, and also provide evidence for other infections. A better understanding of the dynamically balanced immune response can help shape treatment strategies that utilize both drugs and host-directed therapies.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), is a pulmonary pathogen of major global concern. A key feature of Mtb infection in primates is the formation of granulomas, dense cellular structures surrounding infected lung tissue. These structures serve as the main site of host-pathogen interaction in TB, and thus to effectively treat TB we must clarify mechanisms of granuloma formation and their function in disease. Fibrotic granulomas are associated with both good and bad disease outcomes. Fibrosis can serve to isolate infected tissue from healthy tissue, but it can also cause difficulty breathing as it leaves scars. Little is known about fibrosis in TB, and data from non-human primates is just beginning to clarify the picture. This work focuses on constructing a hybrid multi-scale model of fibrotic granuloma formation, in order to identify mechanisms driving development of fibrosis in Mtb infected lungs. We combine dynamics of molecular, cellular, and tissue scale models from previously published studies to characterize the formation of two common sub-types of fibrotic granulomas: peripherally fibrotic, with a cuff of collagen surrounding granulomas, and centrally fibrotic, with collagen throughout granulomas. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, along with large simulation sets, enable us to identify mechanisms differentiating centrally versus peripherally fibrotic granulomas. These findings suggest that heterogeneous cytokine environments exist within granulomas and may be responsible for driving tissue scale morphologies. Using this model we are primed to better understand the complex structure of granulomas, a necessity for developing successful treatments for TB.

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), continues to be a major global health problem. Lung granulomas are organized structures of host immune cells that function to contain the bacteria. Cytokine expression is a critical component of the protective immune response but inappropriate cytokine expression can exacerbate TB. While the importance of pro-inflammatory cytokines in controlling Mtb infection has been established, the effects of anti-inflammatory cytokines, such as IL-10, in TB are less well understood. To investigate the role of IL-10, we used an antibody to neutralize IL-10 in cynomolgus macaques during Mtb infection. Anti-IL-10 treated NHPs had similar overall disease outcomes compared to untreated control NHPs, but there were immunological changes in granulomas and lymph nodes from anti-IL-10 treated animals. There was less thoracic inflammation and increased cytokine production in lung granulomas and lymph nodes from IL-10 neutralized animals at 3-4 weeks post-infection compared to control animals. At 8 weeks post-infection, lung granulomas from IL-10 neutralized animals had reduced cytokine production but increased fibrosis relative to control animals. While these immunological changes did not affect the overall disease burden during the first 8 weeks of infection, we paired computational modeling to explore late infection dynamics. Our findings support that early changes occurring in the absence of IL-10 may lead to better bacterial control later during infection. These unique datasets provide insight into the contribution of IL-10 to the immunological balance necessary for granulomas to control bacterial burden and disease pathology in Mtb infection.

Fluoroquinolones represent the pillar of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) treatment, with moxifloxacin, levofloxacin, or gatifloxacin being prescribed to MDR-TB patients. Recently, several clinical trials of “universal” drug regimens, aiming to treat drug-susceptible and drug-resistant TB, have included a fluoroquinolone., Fluoroquinolones represent the pillar of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) treatment, with moxifloxacin, levofloxacin, or gatifloxacin being prescribed to MDR-TB patients. Recently, several clinical trials of “universal” drug regimens, aiming to treat drug-susceptible and drug-resistant TB, have included a fluoroquinolone. In the absence of clinical data comparing their side-by-side efficacies in controlled MDR-TB trials, a pharmacological rationale is needed to guide the selection of the most efficacious fluoroquinolone. The present studies were designed to test the hypothesis that fluoroquinolone concentrations (pharmacokinetics) and activity (pharmacodynamics) at the site of infection are better predictors of efficacy than the plasma concentrations and potency measured in standard growth inhibition assays and are better suited to determinations of whether one of the fluoroquinolones outperforms the others in rabbits with active TB. We first measured the penetration of these fluoroquinolones in lung lesion compartments, and their potency against bacterial populations that reside in each compartment, to compute lesion-centric pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) parameters. PK modeling methods were used to quantify drug penetration from plasma to tissues at human-equivalent doses. On the basis of these metrics, moxifloxacin emerged with a clear advantage, whereas plasma-based PK/PD favored levofloxacin (the ranges of the plasma AUC/MIC ratio [i.e., the area under the concentration-time curve over 24 h in the steady state divided by the MIC] are 46 to 86 for moxifloxacin and 74 to 258 for levofloxacin). A comparative efficacy trial in the rabbit model of active TB demonstrated the superiority of moxifloxacin in reducing bacterial burden at the lesion level and in sterilizing cellular and necrotic lesions. Collectively, these results show that PK/PD data obtained at the site of infection represent an adequate predictor of drug efficacy against TB and constitute the baseline required to explore synergies, antagonism, and drug-drug interactions in fluoroquinolone-containing regimens.