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During the winter of 2019/2020, as the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) project started its work, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) experienced some of its largest shifts, ranging from a highly negative index in November 2019 to an extremely positive index during January–February–March (JFM) 2020. The permanent positive AO phase for the 3 months of JFM 2020 was accompanied by a prevailing positive phase of the Arctic Dipole (AD) pattern. Here we analyze the sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution based on CryoSat-2/SMOS satellite-derived data augmented with results from the hindcast simulation by the fully coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) from November 2019 through March 2020. A notable result of the positive AO phase during JFM 2020 was large SIT anomalies of up to 1.3 m that emerged in the Barents Sea (BS), along the northeastern Canadian coast and in parts of the central Arctic Ocean. These anomalies appear to be driven by nonlinear interactions between thermodynamic and dynamic processes. In particular, in the Barents and Kara seas (BKS), they are a result of enhanced ice growth connected with low-temperature anomalies and the consequence of intensified atmospherically driven sea ice transport and deformations (i.e., ice divergence and shear) in this area. The Davies Strait, the east coast of Greenland and the BS regions are characterized by convergence and divergence changes connected with thinner sea ice at the ice borders along with an enhanced impact of atmospheric wind forcing. Low-pressure anomalies that developed over the eastern Arctic during JFM 2020 increased northerly winds from the cold Arctic Ocean to the BS and accelerated the southward drift of the MOSAiC ice floe. The satellite-derived and simulated sea ice velocity anomalies, which compared well during JFM 2020, indicate a strong acceleration of the Transpolar Drift relative to the mean for the past decade, with intensified speeds of up to 6 km d -1. As a consequence, sea ice transport and deformations driven by atmospheric surface wind forcing accounted for the bulk of the SIT anomalies, especially in January 2020 and February 2020. RASM intra-annual ensemble forecast simulations with 30 ensemble members forced with different atmospheric boundary conditions from 1 November 2019 through 30 April 2020 show a pronounced internal variability in the sea ice volume, driven by thermodynamic ice-growth and ice-melt processes and the impact of dynamic surface winds on sea ice formation and deformation. A comparison of the respective SIT distributions and turbulent heat fluxes during the positive AO phase in JFM 2020 and the negative AO phase in JFM 2010 corroborates the conclusion that winter sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean can be significantly altered by AO variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Zusammenfassung Die Arktis stellt einen Brennpunkt der globalen Klimaänderung dar. Das gekoppelte Klimasystem besteht aus verschiedenen Elementen von lokalen über regionale bis zu planetaren Raum‐ und Zeitskalen. Nichtlineare Wechselwirkungen zwischen diesen und ihre Rolle für die arktische Verstärkung sind bisher nur unzureichend verstanden und in Klimamodellen nur sehr rudimentär berücksichtigt. Im Mittelpunkt kontroverser Diskussionen steht der Einfluss von Phasen mit geringer und hoher arktischer Meereisbedeckung auf die atmosphärische Wechselwirkung zwischen der Arktis und mittleren Breiten. Der rekonstruierte arktische Meereisrückgang seit Beginn der Satellitenbeobachtungen 1979 kann die beobachtete winterliche Erwärmung der Arktis und die damit verbundene Abkühlung in mittleren Breiten reproduzieren. Beteiligt sind verschiedene, hochgradig nichtlineare Prozesse, die der Artikel vorstellt. Simulierte regionale Auswirkungen des Treibhauseffektes für zukünftige Klimaszenarien sind zudem stark vom verwendeten Klimamodell und den darin enthaltenen Beschreibungen lokaler Prozesse abhängig, also nach wie vor mit großen Unsicherheiten behaftet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic has become a hot spot of climate change, but the nonlinear interactions between regional and global scales in the coupled climate system responsible for Arctic amplification are not well understood and insufficiently described in climate models. Here, we compare reanalysis data with model simulations for low and high Arctic sea ice conditions to identify model biases with respect to atmospheric Arctic–mid‐latitude linkages. We show that an appropriate description of Arctic sea ice forcing is able to reproduce the observed winter cooling in mid‐latitudes as result of improved tropospheric‐stratospheric planetary wave propagation triggering a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation in late winter. The Arctic has become a hot spot of climate change, but the nonlinear interactions between regional and global scales in the coupled climate system responsible for Arctic amplification are not well understood and insufficiently described in climate models. Here we compare re‐analysis data with model simulations for low and high Arctic sea ice conditions to identify model biases with respect to atmospheric Arctic‐mid‐latitude linkages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A quasi-geostrophic three-level T63 model of the wintertime atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere has been applied to investigate the impact of Arctic amplification (increase in surface air temperatures and loss of Arctic sea ice during the last 15 years) on the mid-latitude large-scale atmospheric circulation. The model demonstrates a mid-latitude response to an Arctic diabatic heating anomaly. A clear shift towards a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO−) during low sea-ice-cover conditions occurs, connected with weakening of mid-latitude westerlies over the Atlantic and colder winters over Northern Eurasia. Compared to reanalysis data, there is no clear model response with respect to the Pacific Ocean and North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratospheric response to the observed Arctic sea ice retreat is analysed based on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) atmospheric data from 1979-2012. It is shown that changes in August/September sea ice concentration impact on tropospheric and stratospheric geopotential heights in the following winter. During low ice phases a negative tropospheric Arctic Oscillation pattern is found, which is connected to a weakened stratospheric polar vortex and warmer stratospheric temperatures. Furthermore, the analysis reveals enhanced upward EP fluxes due to planetary waves for low ice conditions. Strong stratospheric anomalies in the Atlantic/European region are associated with a weaker polar vortex. Low ice periods are connected with additional tropospheric wave energy excitation in the Pacific/North America region and influence the stratosphere through three-dimensional planetary wave propagation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article evaluates the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce the low-frequency variability of the mid-tropospheric winter flow of the Northern Hemisphere in terms of atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Therefore, multi-model simulations for present-day conditions, performed for the 4th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have been analysed and compared with re-analysis data sets. The spatial patterns of atmospheric teleconnections are reproduced reasonably by most of the models. The comparison of coupled with atmosphere-only runs confirmed that a better representation of the forcing by sea surface temperatures has the potential to slightly improve the representation of only wave train-like patterns. Due to internally generated climate variability, the models are not able to reproduce the observed temporal behaviour. Insights into the dynamical reasons for the limited skill of climate models in reproducing teleconnections have been obtained by studying the relation between major teleconnections and zonal wind variability patterns. About half of the models are able to reproduce the observed relationship. For these cases, the quality of simulated teleconnection patterns is largely determined by the quality of zonal wind variability patterns. Therefore, improvements of simulated eddy-mean flow interaction have the potential to improve the atmospheric teleconnections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The regional climate model HIRHAM has been applied to Antarctica driven at the lateral and lower boundaries by European Reanalysis data ERA-40 for the period 1958-1998. Simulations over 4 decades, carried out with a horizontal resolution of 50 km, deliver a realistic simulation of the Antarctic atmospheric circulation, synoptic-scale pressure systems, and the spatial distribution of precipitation minus sublimation (P-E) structures. The simulated P-E pattern is in qualitative agreement with glaciological estimates. The estimated (P-E) trends demonstrate surfacemass accumulation increase at theWest Antarctic coasts and reductions in parts of East Antarctica. The influence of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) on the near-surface climate and the surface mass accumulation over Antarctica have been investigated on the basis of ERA-40 data and HIRHAM simulations. It is shown that the regional accumulation changes are largely driven by changes in the transient activity around the Antarctic coasts due to the varying AAO phases. During positive AAO, more transient pressure systems travelling towards the continent, and Western Antarctica and parts of South-Eastern Antarctica gain more precipitation and mass. Over central Antarctica the prevailing anticyclone causes a strengthening of polar desertification connected with a reduced surface mass balance in the northern part of East Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of Northern Hemisphere climate regime variability for three different time slices, simulated by the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM). The three time slices are composed of present-day conditions, the mid-Holocene, and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Climate regimes have been determined by analyzing the structure of a spherical probability density function in a low-dimensional state space spanned by the three leading empirical orthogonal functions. This study confirms the ability of the FOAM medium-resolution climate model to reproduce low-frequency climate variability in the form of regime-like behavior. Three to four regimes have been detected for each time slice. Compared with present-day conditions, new climate regimes appeared for the LGM. For the mid-Holocene, which had slightly different boundary conditions and external forcings than the present-day simulation, the frequency of occurrence of the regimes was altered while only slight changes were found in the structure of some regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study investigates future changes of the Arctic climate by the end of the 21st century, simulated by the regional climate model HIRHAM forced with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model and assuming the SRES A1B emission scenario. This assessment provides the regional patterns of future circulation, temperature, and precipitation in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century. The magnitude of winter and summer temperature and precipitation is projected to increase, while their interannual variability is projected to change seasonally and is regionally dependent. The regional-scale response of the temperature and precipitation is associated with changes in storm tracks and atmospheric baroclinicity. During winter, the regions of strongest baroclinicity are shifted northward and strengthened. Changes in the seasonal temperature and precipitation are accompanied by changes in their extremes. Extreme warm and cold events are significantly projected to change, with relative changes of seasonal precipitation being larger than those of precipitation extremes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

From a dynamical systems theory perspective, the mechanisms of atmospheric regime behavior in a barotropic model, a pseudobarotropic model, and a baroclinic three-level model, where all of them show quite realistic regimes, are unveiled. Along with this, the role played by multiple equilibria for the emergence of regimes in barotropic models is critically reexamined. In the barotropic model, a sequence of bifurcations is observed, which leads to the merging of coexisting attractors and results in two pronounced regimes corresponding to high- and low-index flow. The pseudobarotropic model is constructed from the three-level model by introducing a strong internal friction between the levels and switching off the interfacial diabatic forcing, and it has essentially the same bifurcation properties and regimes as the truly barotropic model. A continuous metamorphosis between the pseudobarotropic and the original baroclinic three-level model is accomplished by a linear interpolation of parameters and forcing fields between these two models. Both local and global bifurcations occurring during this transition to baroclinicity are analyzed in detail, yielding two main results. First, almost all of the multiple steady states of the pseudobarotropic model owe their existence merely to the fact that the surface friction has generally to be chosen unphysically weak in barotropic models in order to obtain chaotic behavior. Second, the circulation regimes in both the pseudobarotropic model and the baroclinic three-level model are proven to emerge from the unification of multiple attractors, which coexist at intermediate strength of baroclinicity and correspond to low- or high-index flow configurations, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamical mechanisms of atmospheric regime behavior are investigated in the context of a quasigeostrophic three-level T21 model of the wintertime atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere. The model, driven by realistic orography and using a thermal forcing determined by a newly developed tuning procedure, is shown to possess a reasonable climatology and to simulate the Arctic Oscillation quite realistically. It exhibits pronounced internally generated interannual and decadal variability and, in particular, circulation regimes that agree fairly well with observed ones. Two known hypotheses about the origin of regime behavior, as it occurs in the model herein are addressed: (i) multiple equilibria and (ii) chaotic itinerancy between attractor ruins. The first hypothesis is falsified at very high probability, while the second is likely to be true. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unique and independent historical observations, carried out in the central Arctic during the early twentieth century warming (ETCW) period, were used to evaluate the older (20CRv2) and newer (20CRv2c) versions of the 20th Century Reanalysis and the HIRHAM5 regional climate model. The latter can reduce several biases compared to its forcing data set (20CRv2) probably due to higher horizontal resolution and a more realistic cloud parameterization. However, low-level temperature and near-surface specific humidity agree best between 20CRv2c and the surface-based observations. This better performance results from more realistic lower boundary conditions for sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature, but it is limited mainly to polar night. Although sea level pressures are very similar, the vertical stratification and baroclinicity change in the transition from 20CRv2 to 20CRv2c. Compared to observed temperature profiles, the systematic cold bias above 400 hPa remains almost unchanged indicating an incorrect coupling between the planetary boundary layer and free troposphere. In addition to surface pressures, it is therefore recommended to assimilate available vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and wind speed. This might also reduce the large biases in 10 m wind speed, but the reliability of the sea ice data remains a great unknown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric low-frequency variability and circulation regime behavior are investigated in the context of a quasi-geostrophic (QG) three-level T63 model of the wintertime atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The model generates strong interannual and decadal variability, with the domination of the annular mode of variability. It successfully reproduces a satisfactory model climatology and the most important atmospheric circulation regimes. The positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation is a robust feature of the quasi-geostrophic T63 model. The model results based on QG dynamics underlie atmospheric regime behavior in the extratropical NH and suggest that nonlinear internal processes deliver significant contribution to the atmospheric climate variability on interannual and decadal timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis (JRA-25) winter daily (1 December-28 February) data for the period 1979-2012, this paper reveals the leading pattern of winter daily 850-hPa wind variability over northern Eurasia from a dynamic perspective. The results show that the leading pattern accounts for 18% of the total anomalous kinetic energy and consists of two subpatterns: the dipole and the tripole wind patterns. The dipole wind pattern does not exhibit any apparent trend. The tripole wind pattern, however, has displayed significant trends since the late 1980s. The negative phase of the tripole wind pattern corresponds to an anomalous anticyclone over northern Eurasia during winter, as well as two anomalous cyclones occurring over southern Europe and in the mid- to high latitudes of East Asia. These anomalous cyclones in turn lead to enhanced winter precipitation in these two regions, as well as negative surface temperature anomalies over the mid- to high latitudes of Asia. The intensity of the tripole wind pattern and the frequency of its extreme negative phase are significantly correlated with autumn Arctic sea ice anomalies. Simulation experiments further demonstrate that the winter atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice decrease is dynamically consistent with the observed trend in the tripole wind pattern over the past 24 winters, which is one of the causes of the observed declining winter surface air temperature trend over Central and East Asia. The results of this study also imply that East Asia may experience more frequent and/or intense winter extreme weather events in association with the loss of Arctic sea ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the atmospheric regional climate model HIRHAM5, the single-column model version HIRHAM5-SCM was developed and applied to investigate the performance of a relative humidity based (RH-Scheme) and a prognostic statistical cloud scheme (PS-Scheme) in the central Arctic. The surface pressure as well as dynamical tendencies of temperature, specific humidity, and horizontal wind were prescribed from the ERA-Interim data set to enable the simulation of a realistic annual cycle. Both modeled temperature and relative humidity profiles were validated against radio soundings carried out on the 35th North Pole drifting station (NP-35). Simulated total cloud cover was evaluated with NP-35 and satellite-based ISCCP-D2 and MODIS observations. The more sophisticated PS-Scheme was found to perform more realistically and matched the observations better. Nevertheless, the model systematically overestimated the monthly averaged total cloud cover. Sensitivity studies were conducted to assess the effect of modified "tuning" parameters on cloud-related model variables. Two tunable parameters of the PS-Scheme and six tuning parameters contained in the cloud microphysics were analyzed. Lower values of the PS-Scheme adjustment parameter q̃0, which defines the shape of the symmetric beta distribution (acting as probability density function), as well as higher values of the cloud water threshold CWmin or autoconversion rate γ1 are able to reduce the overestimation of Arctic clouds. Furthermore, a lower cloud ice threshold γthr, which controls the Bergeron--Findeisen process, improves model cloudiness and the ratio of liquid to solid water content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of anomalous fall Arctic sea ice concentrations (SICs) on atmospheric patterns in the following winter is revisited by analysing results for two time periods: the most recent, satellite-era period (1979-2010) and a longer time-period (1950-2010). On the basis of September SICs for each time-period, an index was constructed which was used to identify anomalous high/low SIC years for both the original, as well as for the linearly detrended sea ice index. Identified years were then used to derive composites for the following winter's monthly atmospheric variables. Mid-troposphere geopotential height composites for winter months are in general reminiscent of the North Atlantic Oscillation pattern with high latitude maximum shifted towards the Barents Sea. Also, lower troposphere temperatures indicate the presence of cooler conditions over the continents during low SIC years. However, differences in the composite patterns are significant only for areas with limited spatial extent. While suggested pathways in previously published studies seem reasonable, our results show that these findings are not yet robust enough from a statistical significance perspective. More data (e.g. provided by longer, climate-quality reanalysis datasets) are needed before conclusions of impacts and feedbacks can be drawn with certainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes atmospheric general circulation model climate change experiments in which the Arctic sea-ice thickness is either fixed to 3 m or somewhat more realistically parameterized in order to take into account essentially the spatial variability of Arctic sea-ice thickness, which is, to a first approximation, a function of ice type (perennial or seasonal). It is shown that, both at present and at the end of the twenty-first century (under the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas scenario), the impact of a variable sea-ice thickness compared to a uniform value is essentially limited to the cold seasons and the lower troposphere. However, because first-year ice is scarce in the Central Arctic today, but not under SRES-A1B conditions at the end of the twenty-first century, and because the impact of a sea-ice thickness reduction can be masked by changes of the open water fraction, the spatial and temporal patterns of the effect of sea-ice thinning on the atmosphere differ between the two periods considered. As a consequence, not only the climate simulated at a given period, but also the simulated Arctic climate change over the twenty-first century is affected by the way sea-ice thickness is prescribed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The regional climate model HIRHAM has been applied over the Asian continent to simulate the Indian monsoon circulation under present-day conditions. The model is driven at the lateral and lower boundaries by European reanalysis (ERA40) data for the period from 1958 to 2001. Simulations with a horizontal resolution of 50 km are carried out to analyze the regional monsoon patterns. The focus in this paper is on the validation of the long-term summer monsoon climatology and its variability concerning circulation, temperature, and precipitation. Additionally, the monsoonal behavior in simulations for wet and dry years has been investigated and compared against several observational data sets. The results successfully reproduce the observations due to a realistic reproduction of topographic features. The simulated precipitation shows a better agreement with a high-resolution gridded precipitation data set over the central land areas of India and in the higher elevated Tibetan and Himalayan regions than ERA40. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Arctic temperature is analyzed in view of its extremes based on climate indices derived from daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperature. This analysis is done for the pan Arctic domain and region-specific for the eastern and western Russian Arctic. The variability of temperature-related indices over the last four decades is presented, in which the spatial distribution and regional differences as well as its temporal trends are discussed. The analysis is based on ERA40 data and station data in the Russian Arctic. Station-based results for 1958–2008 show a significant decrease of frost days (−0.8days/decade) over the eastern Russian Arctic in spring. The trends in warm (cold) spell days are not statistically significant; except in western Russian Arctic in summer for cold spell days (−2days/decade). The inter-annual variability of the indices is large and shows pronounced decadal variations. ERA40 data generally reproduce well the inter-annual variability in the climate indices as seen in observations, but they show some deficiencies in the magnitudes and trends of the indices. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A new class of unsteady analytical solutions of the spherical shallow water equations (SSWE) is presented. Analytical solutions of the SSWE are fundamental for the validation of barotropic atmospheric models. To date, only steady-state analytical solutions are known from the literature. The unsteady analytical solutions of the SSWE are derived by applying the transformation method to the transition from a fixed cartesian to a rotating coordinate system. Fundamental examples of the new unsteady analytical solutions are presented for specific wind profiles. With the presented unsteady analytical solutions one can provide a measure of the numerical convergence in the case of a temporally evolving system. An application to the atmospheric model PLASMA shows the benefit of unsteady analytical solutions for the quantification of convergence properties. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We combine satellite data products to provide a first and general overview of the physical sea ice conditions along the drift of the international Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition and a comparison with previous years (2005–2006 to 2018–2019). We find that the MOSAiC drift was around 20 % faster than the climatological mean drift, as a consequence of large-scale low-pressure anomalies prevailing around the Barents–Kara–Laptev sea region between January and March. In winter (October–April), satellite observations show that the sea ice in the vicinity of the Central Observatory (CO; 50 km radius) was rather thin compared to the previous years along the same trajectory. Unlike ice thickness, satellite-derived sea ice concentration, lead frequency and snow thickness during winter months were close to the long-term mean with little variability. With the onset of spring and decreasing distance to the Fram Strait, variability in ice concentration and lead activity increased. In addition, the frequency and strength of deformation events (divergence, convergence and shear) were higher during summer than during winter. Overall, we find that sea ice conditions observed within 5 km distance of the CO are representative for the wider (50 and 100 km) surroundings. An exception is the ice thickness; here we find that sea ice within 50 km radius of the CO was thinner than sea ice within a 100 km radius by a small but consistent factor (4 %) for successive monthly averages. Moreover, satellite acquisitions indicate that the formation of large melt ponds began earlier on the MOSAiC floe than on neighbouring floes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratosphere is one of the main potential sources for subseasonal to seasonal predictability in midlatitudes in winter. The ability of an atmospheric model to realistically simulate the stratospheric dynamics is essential in order to move forward in the field of seasonal predictions in midlatitudes. Earlier studies with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic atmospheric model (ICON) point out that stratospheric westerlies in ICON are underestimated. This is the first extensive study on the evaluation of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric winter circulation with ICON in numerical weather prediction (NWP) mode. Seasonal experiments with the default setup are able to reproduce the basic climatology of the stratospheric polar vortex. However, westerlies are too weak and major stratospheric warmings too frequent in ICON. Both a reduction of the nonorographic, and a reduction of the orographic gravity wave and wake drag lead to a strengthening of the stratospheric vortex and a bias reduction, in particular in January. However, the effect of the nonorographic gravity wave drag scheme on the stratosphere is stronger. Stratosphere‐troposphere coupling is intensified and more realistic due to a reduced gravity wave drag. Furthermore, an adjustment of the subgrid‐scale orographic drag parameterization leads to a significant error reduction in the mean sea level pressure. As a result of these findings, we present our current suggested improved setup for seasonal experiments with ICON‐NWP. Plain Language Summary: Although seasonal forecasts for midlatitudes have the potential to be highly beneficial to the public sector, they are still characterized by a large amount of uncertainty. Exact simulations of the circulation in the stratosphere can help to improve tropospheric predictability on seasonal time scales. For this reason, we investigate how well the new German atmospheric model is able to simulate the stratospheric circulation. The model reproduces the basic behavior of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, but the westerly circulation in winter is underestimated. The stratospheric circulation is influenced by gravity waves that exert drag on the flow. These processes are only partly physically represented in the model, but are very important and are hence parameterized. By adjusting the parameterizations for the gravity wave drag, the stratospheric polar vortex is strengthened, thereby yielding a more realistic stratospheric circulation. In addition, the altered parameterizations improve the simulated surface pressure pattern. Based upon this, we present our current suggested improved model setup for seasonal experiments. Key Points: Seasonal simulations with ICON‐NWP underestimate stratospheric vortex strength in winterAdjusted gravity wave drag schemes lead to reduced biases in Northern Hemisphere circulationStratosphere‐troposphere coupling is intensified with a reduced gravity wave drag [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In September 2019, the research icebreaker Polarstern started the largest multidisciplinary Arctic expedition to date, the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) drift experiment. Being moored to an ice floe for a whole year, thus including the winter season, the declared goal of the expedition is to better understand and quantify relevant processes within the atmosphere–ice–ocean system that impact the sea ice mass and energy budget, ultimately leading to much improved climate models. Satellite observations, atmospheric reanalysis data, and readings from a nearby meteorological station indicate that the interplay of high ice export in late winter and exceptionally high air temperatures resulted in the longest ice-free summer period since reliable instrumental records began. We show, using a Lagrangian tracking tool and a thermodynamic sea ice model, that the MOSAiC floe carrying the Central Observatory (CO) formed in a polynya event north of the New Siberian Islands at the beginning of December 2018. The results further indicate that sea ice in the vicinity of the CO (<40 km distance) was younger and 36 % thinner than the surrounding ice with potential consequences for ice dynamics and momentum and heat transfer between ocean and atmosphere. Sea ice surveys carried out on various reference floes in autumn 2019 verify this gradient in ice thickness, and sediments discovered in ice cores (so-called dirty sea ice) around the CO confirm contact with shallow waters in an early phase of growth, consistent with the tracking analysis. Since less and less ice from the Siberian shelves survives its first summer (Krumpen et al., 2019), the MOSAiC experiment provides the unique opportunity to study the role of sea ice as a transport medium for gases, macronutrients, iron, organic matter, sediments and pollutants from shelf areas to the central Arctic Ocean and beyond. Compared to data for the past 26 years, the sea ice encountered at the end of September 2019 can already be classified as exceptionally thin, and further predicted changes towards a seasonally ice-free ocean will likely cut off the long-range transport of ice-rafted materials by the Transpolar Drift in the future. A reduced long-range transport of sea ice would have strong implications for the redistribution of biogeochemical matter in the central Arctic Ocean, with consequences for the balance of climate-relevant trace gases, primary production and biodiversity in the Arctic Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979–2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998–2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering techniques, and back‐trajectory airmass identification. In all five selected European regions, severe cold winter events lasting at least 4 days are significantly correlated with warm Arctic episodes. Relationships during opposite conditions of warm Europe/cold Arctic are also significant. Correlations have become consistently stronger since 1998. Large‐scale pattern analysis reveals that cold spells are associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO‐) and the positive phase of the Scandinavian (SCA+) pattern, which in turn are correlated with the divergence of dry‐static energy transport. Warm European extremes are associated with opposite phases of these patterns and the convergence of latent heat transport. Airmass trajectory analysis is consistent with these findings, as airmasses associated with extreme cold events typically originate over continents, while warm events tend to occur with prevailing maritime airmasses. Despite Arctic‐wide warming, significant cooling has occurred in northeastern Europe owing to a decrease in adiabatic subsidence heating in airmasses arriving from the southeast, along with increased occurrence of circulation patterns favouring low temperature advection. These dynamic effects dominated over the increased mean temperature of most circulation patterns. Lagged correlation analysis reveals that SCA‐ and NAO+ are typically preceded by cold Arctic anomalies during the previous 2–3 months, which may aid seasonal forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

MOSAiC is an international initiative under the umbrella of the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) designed by an international consortium of about 70 polar research institutes. MOSAiC will be the largest Arctic expedition ever covering 350 days in the ice from September 2019 to September 2020. Research Vessel (RV) Polarstern will drift 2500 km through the Arctic across the polar cap to collect urgently needed observation data to support a better understanding of the key Arctic climate processes. Rapid changes in the Arctic lead to an urgent need for reliable information about the state and evolution of the Arctic climate system. This requires more observations over various spatial and temporal scales, and across a wide variety of disciplines. Observations of many critical parameters have not, yet, been made in the central Arctic for a full annual cycle.MOSAiC will be the first year-around expedition into the central Arctic exploring the coupled climate system. RV Polarstern will drift with the sea ice across the central Arctic. The drift starts in the Siberian sector of the Arctic in late summer. A distributed regional network of observational sites will be established on the sea ice in an area of up to 50 km distance from RV Polarstern, representing a grid cell of climate models. The ship and the surrounding network will drift with the natural sea ice drift across the polar cap towards the Atlantic. The focus of MOSAiC lies on in-situ observations of the climate processes that couple atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, biogeochemistry and ecosystem. These measurements will be supported by prediction of weather and sea ice, and remote sensing operations to make the expedition successful. The expedition includes aircraft operations and expeditions by icebreakers from MOSAiC partners. All these observations will be used for the main scientific goals of MOSAiC, enhancing the understanding of the regional and global consequences of Arctic climate change and sea ice loss, and improving weather and climate prediction. More precisely, the results are needed to advance the data assimilation for numerical weather prediction models, sea ice forecasts and climate models, and provide ground truth for satellite remote sensing. Additionally, the understanding of the energy budget and fluxes through interfaces, sources, sinks and cycles of chemical species, boundary layer processes, and primary productivity will be investigated during the expedition. MOSAiC will provide scientific knowledge to support safer Arctic maritime and offshore operations, including fisheries and transportation along northern sea routes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clouds play an important role in Arctic amplification. This term represents the recently observed enhanced warming of the Arctic relative to the global increase of near-surface air temperature. However, there are still important knowledge gaps regarding the interplay between Arctic clouds and aerosol particles, and surface properties, as well as turbulent and radiative fluxes that inhibit accurate model simulations of clouds in the Arctic climate system. In an attempt to resolve this so-called Arctic cloud puzzle, two comprehensive and closely coordinated field studies were conducted: the Arctic Cloud Observations Using Airborne Measurements during Polar Day (ACLOUD) aircraft campaign and the Physical Feedbacks of Arctic Boundary Layer, Sea Ice, Cloud and Aerosol (PASCAL) ice breaker expedition. Both observational studies were performed in the framework of the German Arctic Amplification: Climate Relevant Atmospheric and Surface Processes, and Feedback Mechanisms (AC) project. They took place in the vicinity of Svalbard, Norway, in May and June 2017. ACLOUD and PASCAL explored four pieces of the Arctic cloud puzzle: cloud properties, aerosol impact on clouds, atmospheric radiation, and turbulent dynamical processes. The two instrumented Polar 5 and Polar 6 aircraft; the icebreaker Research Vessel (R/V) Polarstern; an ice floe camp including an instrumented tethered balloon; and the permanent ground-based measurement station at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, were employed to observe Arctic low- and mid-level mixed-phase clouds and to investigate related atmospheric and surface processes. The Polar 5 aircraft served as a remote sensing observatory examining the clouds from above by downward-looking sensors; the Polar 6 aircraft operated as a flying in situ measurement laboratory sampling inside and below the clouds. Most of the collocated Polar 5/6 flights were conducted either above the R/V Polarstern or over the Ny-Ålesund station, both of which monitored the clouds from below using similar but upward-looking remote sensing techniques as the Polar 5 aircraft. Several of the flights were carried out underneath collocated satellite tracks. The paper motivates the scientific objectives of the ACLOUD/PASCAL observations and describes the measured quantities, retrieved parameters, and the applied complementary instrumentation. Furthermore, it discusses selected measurement results and poses critical research questions to be answered in future papers analyzing the data from the two field campaigns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new version of the coupled Arctic atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model HIRHAM-NAOSIM is described. This version utilizes upgraded model components for the coupled subsystems, which include physical and numerical improvements and higher horizontal and vertical resolution, and a revised coupling procedure with the aid of the coupling software YAC. The model performance is evaluated against observationally based data sets and compared with the previous version. Ensemble simulations for the period 1979-2016 reveal that Arctic sea ice is thicker in all seasons and closer to observations than in the previous version. Wintertime biases in sea-ice extent and near-surface air temperatures are reduced, while summertime biases are of similar magnitude as in the previous version. Problematic issues of the current model configuration and potential corrective measures and further developments are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A classic Discontinuous Galerkin Method with low-order polynomials and explicit as well as semi-implicit time-stepping is applied to an atmospheric model employing the Euler equations on the β plane. The method, which was initially proposed without regard for the source terms and their balance with the pressure gradient that dominates atmospheric dynamics, needs to be adapted to be able to keep the combined geostrophic and hydrostatic balance in three spatial dimensions. This is achieved inside the discretisation through a polynomial mapping of both source and flux terms without imposing filters between time steps. After introduction and verification of this balancing, the realistic development of barotropic and baroclinic waves in the model is demonstrated, including the formation of a retrograde Rossby wave pattern. A prerequesite is the numerical solution of the thermal wind equation to construct geostrophically balanced initial states in z coordinates with arbitrary prescribed zonal wind profile, offering a new set of test cases for atmospheric models employing z coordinates. The resulting simulations demonstrate that the balanced low-order Discontinuous Galerkin discretisation with polynomial degrees down to k = 1 can be a viable option for atmospheric modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the early 1980s, Germany started a new era of modern Antarctic research. The Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) was founded and important research platforms such as the German permanent station in Antarctica, today called Neumayer III, and the research icebreaker Polarstern were installed. The research primarily focused on the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. In parallel, the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG) started a priority program 'Antarctic Research' (since 2003 called SPP-1158) to foster and intensify the cooperation between scientists from different German universities and the AWI as well as other institutes involved in polar research. Here, we review the main findings in meteorology and oceanography of the last decade, funded by the priority program. The paper presents field observations and modelling efforts, extending from the stratosphere to the deep ocean. The research spans a large range of temporal and spatial scales, including the interaction of both climate components. In particular, radiative processes, the interaction of the changing ozone layer with large-scale atmospheric circulations, and changes in the sea ice cover are discussed. Climate and weather forecast models provide an insight into the water cycle and the climate change signals associated with synoptic cyclones. Investigations of the atmospheric boundary layer focus on the interaction between atmosphere, sea ice and ocean in the vicinity of polynyas and leads. The chapters dedicated to polar oceanography review the interaction between the ocean and ice shelves with regard to the freshwater input and discuss the changes in water mass characteristics, ventilation and formation rates, crucial for the deepest limb of the global, climate-relevant meridional overturning circulation. They also highlight the associated storage of anthropogenic carbon as well as the cycling of carbon, nutrients and trace metals in the ocean with special emphasis on the Weddell Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the impact of radiosonde data on the sea-ice forecast in the Northern Sea Route during an extremely developed cyclone on 6 August 2012, a series of numerical experiments were conducted using an ice-ocean coupled model with fine horizontal resolution (approximately 2.5 km). The atmospheric forcing data used for the model were forecast data with (CTL) and without (OSE) initialization by radiosonde data over the Fram Strait, obtained by the German R/V Polarstern, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis data. All numerical experiments were run from 06:00 UTC on 3 August 2012 to 00:00 UTC on 8 August 2012 with an initial sea-ice concentration and thickness derived from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 satellite data. The root-mean-square error and correlation coefficient for the sea-ice distribution showed that the CTL simulation predicted better the sea-ice distribution in the Northern Sea Route than the OSE simulation. This occurred in particular from 6 to 7 August when the cyclone became strong. The thermodynamic processes resulted in the difference in the sea-ice thickness due to changes in the vertical energy fluxes. However, the differences in the sea-ice concentration and velocity were caused mainly by the dynamics, particularly the difference in wind fields, rather than the thermodynamics. These results suggest that radiosonde data are effective in improving the forecast accuracy of the sea-ice distribution. Therefore, errors in the weather forecast data would have a substantial impact on the safety of ship navigation and the sea-ice distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characteristics of cyclones (frequency, intensity and size) and their changes in the Arctic region in a warmer climate have been analyzed with the use of the HIRHAM regional climate model simulations with SRES-A1B anthropogenic scenario for the twenty first century. The focus was on cyclones for the warm (April-September) and cold (October-March) seasons. The present-day cyclonic characteristics from HIRHAM simulations are in general agreement with those from ERA-40 reanalysis data. Differences noted for the frequency of cyclones are related with different spatial resolution in the model simulations and reanalysis data. Potential future changes in cyclone characteristics at the end of the twenty first century have been analyzed. According to the model simulations, the frequency of cyclones is increasing in warm seasons and decreasing in cold seasons for a warmer climate in the twenty first century, but these changes are statistically insignificant. Noticeable changes were detected for the intensity and size of cyclones for the both seasons. Significant increase was found for the frequency of weak cyclones during cold season. Further, a general increase in the frequency of small cyclones was calculated in cold seasons, while its frequency decreases in warm seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the effect of increasing horizontal resolution in the atmospheric model ECHAM6 on the simulated mean climate state and climate variability. For that purpose three AMIP-style simulations with the resolutions T63L95, T127L95, and T255L95 are compared to reanalysis data and observations. Biases in atmospheric fields as well as tropospheric and stratospheric biases individually are analyzed. Besides mean errors of the climate state and the variance, some atmospheric phenomena with different time scales are studied at the three horizontal resolutions: the transient eddy kinetic energy, storm tracks, atmospheric teleconnections, the Madden-Julian-Oscillation (MJO), and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The main result is that, overall, the bias of the simulated climate is reduced with increasing resolution when considering the mean state and the variance. A greater improvement takes place in the extra-tropical than in the tropical troposphere. The errors in the stratosphere are generally larger but the relative benefit of increasing resolution is greater than in the troposphere and we find that stratospheric phenomena, like the QBO, are sensitive to horizontal resolution. Globally, the bias of the mean state improves by 19 %, while the bias of the variability improves by 15 % (from T63 to T255). Major challenges remain the simulation of the precipitation and climate features like the MJO, which might require a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we present one year of meteorological and flux measurements obtained near Ny-Ålesund, Spitsbergen. Fluxes are derived by the eddy covariance method and by a hydrodynamic model approach (HMA) as well. Both methods are compared and analyzed with respect to season and mean wind direction. Concerning the wind field we find a clear distinction between 3 prevailing regimes (which have influence on the flux behavior) mainly caused by the topography at the measurement site. Concerning the fluxes we find a good agreement between the HMA and the eddy covariance method in cases of turbulent mixing in summer but deviations at stable conditions, when the HMA almost always shows negative fluxes. Part of the deviation is based on a dependence of HMA fluxes on friction velocity and the influence of the molecular boundary layer. Moreover, the flagging system of the eddy covariance software package TK3 is briefly revised. A new quality criterion for the use of fluxes obtained by the eddy covariance method, which is based on integral turbulence characteristics, is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic region has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average - a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. The rapid Arctic warming has contributed to dramatic melting of Arctic sea ice and spring snow cover, at a pace greater than that simulated by climate models. These profound changes to the Arctic system have coincided with a period of ostensibly more frequent extreme weather events across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, including severe winters. The possibility of a link between Arctic change and mid-latitude weather has spurred research activities that reveal three potential dynamical pathways linking Arctic amplification to mid-latitude weather: changes in storm tracks, the jet stream, and planetary waves and their associated energy propagation. Through changes in these key atmospheric features, it is possible, in principle, for sea ice and snow cover to jointly influence mid-latitude weather. However, because of incomplete knowledge of how high-latitude climate change influences these phenomena, combined with sparse and short data records, and imperfect models, large uncertainties regarding the magnitude of such an influence remain. We conclude that improved process understanding, sustained and additional Arctic observations, and better coordinated modelling studies will be needed to advance our understanding of the influences on mid-latitude weather and extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis ERA40, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 20th-century reanalysis, and three station observations along an Antarctic traverse from Zhongshan to Dome-A stations are used to assess 2-m temperature simulation skill of a regional climate model. This model (HIRHAM) is from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Germany. Results show: (1) The simulated multiyear averaged 2-m temperature field pattern is close to that of ERA40 and NCEP; (2) the cold bias relative to ERA40 over all of Antarctic regions is 1.8°C, and that to NCEP reaches 5.1°C; (3) bias of HIRHAM relative to ERA40 has seasonal variation, with a cold bias mainly in the summer, as much as 3.4°C. There is a small inland warm bias in autumn of 0.3°C. Further analysis reveals that the reason for the cold bias of 2-m temperature is that physical conditions of the near-surface boundary layer simulated by HIRHAM are different from observations: (1) During the summer, observations show that near-surface atmospheric stability conditions have both inversions and non-inversions, which is due to the existence of both positive and negative sensible heat fluxes, but HIRHAM almost always simulates a situation of inversion and negative sensible heat flux; (2) during autumn and winter, observed near-surface stability is almost always that of inversions, consistent with HIRHAM simulations. This partially explains the small bias during autumn and winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we pose the question where the source regions of the aerosol, which occurs in the European Arctic, are located. Long-term aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from Ny-Ålesund and Sodankylä as well as short-term data from a campaign on a Russian drifting station were analysed by air backtrajectories, analysis of the general circulation pattern and a correlation to chemical composition from in-situ measurements. Surprisingly, our data clearly shows that direct transport of pollutants from Europe does not play an important role. Instead, Arctic haze in Ny-Ålesund has been found for air masses from the Eastern Arctic, while events with increased AOD but chemically more diverse composition have been found for air from Siberia or the central Arctic. Moreover, the AOD in Ny-Ålesund does not depend on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Hence, either the pollution pathways of aerosol are more complex or aerosol is significantly altered by clouds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic atmospheric boundary layer (AABL) in the central Arctic was characterized by dropsonde, lidar, ice thickness and airborne in situ measurements during the international Polar Airborne Measurements and Arctic Regional Climate Model Simulation Project (PAMARCMiP) in April 2009. We discuss AABL observations in the lowermost 500 m above (A) open water, (B) sea ice with many open/refrozen leads (C) sea ice with few leads, and (D) closed sea ice with a front modifying the AABL. Above water, the AABL had near-neutral stratification and contained a high water vapor concentration. Above sea ice, a low AABL top, low near-surface temperatures, strong surface-based temperature inversions and an increase of moisture with altitude were observed. AABL properties and particle concentrations were modified by a frontal system, allowing vertical mixing with the free atmosphere. Above areas with many leads, the potential temperature decreased with height in the lowest 50 m and was nearly constant above, up to an altitude of 100-200 m, indicating vertical mixing. The increase of the backscatter coefficient towards the surface was high. Above sea ice with few refrozen leads, the stably stratified boundary layer extended up to 200-300 m altitude. It was characterized by low specific humidity and a smaller increase of the backscatter coefficient towards the surface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this work, a closure experiment for tropospheric aerosol is presented. Aerosol size distributions and single scattering albedo from remote sensing data are compared to those measured in-situ. An aerosol pollution event on 4 April 2009 was observed by ground based and airborne lidar and photometer in and around Ny-Ålesund, Spitsbergen, as well as by DMPS, nephelometer and particle soot absorption photometer at the nearby Zeppelin Mountain Research Station. The presented measurements were conducted in an area of 40 × 20 km around Ny-Ålesund as part of the 2009 Polar Airborne Measurements and Arctic Regional Climate Model Simulation Project (PAMARCMiP). Aerosol mainly in the accumulation mode was found in the lower troposphere, however, enhanced backscattering was observed up to the tropopause altitude. A comparison of meteorological data available at different locations reveals a stable multi-layer-structure of the lower troposphere. It is followed by the retrieval of optical and microphysical aerosol parameters. Extinction values have been derived using two different methods, and it was found that extinction (especially in the UV) derived from Raman lidar data significantly surpasses the extinction derived from photometer AOD profiles. Airborne lidar data shows volume depolarization values to be less than 2.5% between 500 m and 2.5 km altitude, hence, particles in this range can be assumed to be of spherical shape. In-situ particle number concentrations measured at the Zeppelin Mountain Research Station at 474 m altitude peak at about 0.18 μm diameter, which was also found for the microphysical inversion calculations performed at 850 m and 1500 m altitude. Number concentrations depend on the assumed extinction values, and slightly decrease with altitude as well as the effective particle diameter. A low imaginary part in the derived refractive index suggests weakly absorbing aerosols, which is confirmed by low black carbon concentrations, measured at the Zeppelin Mountain as well as on board the Polar 5 aircraft. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper discusses the effects of vegetation cover and soil parameters on the climate change projections of a regional climate model over the Arctic domain. Different setups of the land surface model of the regional climate model HIRHAM were realized to analyze differences in the atmospheric circulation caused by (1) the incorporation of freezing/thawing of soil moisture, (2) the consideration of top organic soil horizons typical for the Arctic and (3) a vegetation shift due to a changing climate. The largest direct thermal effect in 2 m air temperature was found for the vegetation shift, which ranged between −1.5 K and 3 K. The inclusion of a freeze/thaw scheme for soil moisture shows equally large sensitivities in spring over cool areas with high soil moisture content. Although the sensitivity signal in 2 m air temperature for the experiments differs in amplitude, all experiments show changes in mean sea level pressure (mslp) and geopotential height (z) throughout the troposphere of similar magnitude (mslp: −2 hPa to 1.5 hPa, z: −15 gpm to 5 gpm). This points to the importance of dynamical feedbacks within the atmosphere-land system. Land and soil processes have a distinct remote influence on large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in addition to their direct, regional effects. The assessment of induced uncertainties due to the changed implementations of land surface processes discussed in this study demonstrates the need to take all those processes for future Arctic climate projections into account, and demonstrates a clear need to include similar implementations in regional and global climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present data from two eddy covariance systems for determining the sensible and latent heat flux and the shear stress near the earth's surface. One measures continuously since September 2010 close to the village Ny-A° lesund, Svalbard, the other one was located on Kongsvegen glacier for a short period in April 2011. Two examples for small-scale variability are discussed: near surface external gravity waves associated with katabatic wind from the Broggerbreen glacier located a few kilometres southwestern of Ny-A° lesund, and an episode when the two eddy systems at the different measurement sites captured very different conditions at the same time. In case of gravity wave motion the eddy covariance method results in fictitious positive fluxes due to the strong correlation between temperature and vertical wind, which has to be considered carefully. The comparison between the two sites showed that generally the dynamical processes near the Earth's surface for Ny-A° lesund and the Kongsvegen glacier are different and local. But there are also cases of synchronization due to synoptic influences, and then the same processes are visible at the two measurement sites. Both examples show that the boundary layer in Ny-A° lesund is not only affected by the main glaciers in the east of the village, but also by other orographical characteristics and synoptic issues. Therefore, the only meaningful way to deal with point measurements is to consider them in context with the surrounding orography and the general meteorological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A global model of the atmosphere is presented governed by the shallow water equations and discretized by a Runge–Kutta discontinuous Galerkin method on an unstructured triangular grid. The shallow water equations on the sphere, a two-dimensional surface in , are locally represented in terms of spherical triangular coordinates, the appropriate local coordinate mappings on triangles. On every triangular grid element, this leads to a two-dimensional representation of tangential momentum and therefore only two discrete momentum equations. The discontinuous Galerkin method consists of an integral formulation which requires both area (elements) and line (element faces) integrals. Here, we use a Rusanov numerical flux to resolve the discontinuous fluxes at the element faces. A strong stability-preserving third-order Runge–Kutta method is applied for the time discretization. The polynomial space of order k on each curved triangle of the grid is characterized by a Lagrange basis and requires high-order quadature rules for the integration over elements and element faces. For the presented method no mass matrix inversion is necessary, except in a preprocessing step. The validation of the atmospheric model has been done considering standard tests from Williamson et al. [D.L. Williamson, J.B. Drake, J.J. Hack, R. Jakob, P.N. Swarztrauber, A standard test set for numerical approximations to the shallow water equations in spherical geometry, J. Comput. Phys. 102 (1992) 211–224], unsteady analytical solutions of the nonlinear shallow water equations and a barotropic instability caused by an initial perturbation of a jet stream. A convergence rate of was observed in the model experiments. Furthermore, a numerical experiment is presented, for which the third-order time-integration method limits the model error. Thus, the time step is restricted by both the CFL-condition and accuracy demands. Conservation of mass was shown up to machine precision and energy conservation converges for both increasing grid resolution and increasing polynomial order k. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The parallel adaptive model PLASMA has been developed for modeling a barotropic atmosphere. This model adapts the computational grid at every time step according to a physical error indicator. Thus, compared to uniform grid experiments the number of grid points is reduced significantly. At the same time, the error increases only slightly, when comparing with uniform grid solutions. For the discretization of the underlying spherical shallow water equations a Lagrange–Galerkin method is used. The unstructured triangular grid is maintained by the grid generator amatos and the large linear systems are solved by the parallel solver interface FoSSI. Experimental convergence is shown by means of steady-state and unsteady analytical solutions. PLASMA yields satisfactory results for quasi standard experiments, that is the Rossby–Haurwitz wave and zonal flows over an isolated mountain. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A primary climate change signal in the central Arctic is the melting of sea ice. This is dependent on the interplay between the atmosphere and the sea ice, which is critically dependent on the exchange of momentum, heat and moisture at the surface. In assessing the realism of climate change scenarios it is vital to know the quality by which these exchanges are modelled in climate simulations. Six state-of-the-art regional-climate models are run for one year in the western Arctic, on a common domain that encompasses the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment ice-drift track. Surface variables, surface fluxes and the vertical structure of the lower troposphere are evaluated using data from the SHEBA experiment. All the models are driven by the same lateral boundary conditions, sea-ice fraction and sea and sea-ice surface temperatures. Surface pressure, near-surface air temperature, specific humidity and wind speed agree well with observations, with a falling degree of accuracy in that order. Wind speeds have systematic biases in some models, by as much as a few metres per second. The surface radiation fluxes are also surprisingly accurate, given the complexity of the problem. The turbulent momentum flux is acceptable, on average, in most models, but the turbulent heat fluxes are, however, mostly unreliable. Their correlation with observed fluxes is, in principle, insignificant, and they accumulate over a year to values an order of magnitude larger than observed. Typical instantaneous errors are easily of the same order of magnitude as the observed net atmospheric heat flux. In the light of the sensitivity of the atmosphere–ice interaction to errors in these fluxes, the ice-melt in climate change scenarios must be viewed with considerable caution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The grid generator amatos has been developed for adaptive modeling of ocean and atmosphere circulation. It features adaptive control of planar, spherical, and volume grids with triangular or tetrahedral elements refined by bisection. The user interface (GRID API), a Fortran 90 module, shields the application programmer from the technical aspects of mesh adaptation like amatos’ hierarchical data structure, the OpenMP parallelization, and the effective calculation of a domain decomposition by a space filling curve (SFC) approach. This article presents the basic structure and features of amatos, the powerful SFC ordering and decomposition of data, and two example applications, namely the modeling of tracer advection in the polar vortex and the development of the adaptive finite element atmosphere model PLASMA (parallel large scale model of the atmosphere). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity (frequency, depth and size) in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative and global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter (DJF) and a decrease in summer (JJA) to the end of the 21st century. However, in one half of the RCMs, cyclones become weaker and substantially smaller in winter and deeper and larger in summer. RCMs as well as GCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency over the Baffin Bay, Barents Sea, north of Greenland, Canadian Archipelago, and a decrease over the Nordic Seas, Kara and Beaufort Seas and over the sub-arctic continental regions in winter. In summer, the models simulate an increase of cyclone frequency over the Central Arctic and Greenland Sea and a decrease over the Norwegian and Kara Seas by the end of the 21st century. The decrease is also found over the high-latitude continental areas, in particular, over east Siberia and Alaska. The sensitivity of the RCMs' projections to the boundary conditions and model physics is estimated. In general, different lateral boundary conditions from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM projections than the differences in RCMs' setup and/or physics. • Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with RCMs (Arctic-CORDEX) • Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter and a decrease in summer to the end of the 21st century • Different lateral BCs from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM's than setup and/or physics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sea-ice climatology and sea-ice trends and variability are evaluated in simulations with the new version of the coupled Arctic atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model HIRHAM–NAOSIM 2.0. This version utilizes upgraded model components for the coupled subsystems, which include physical and numerical improvements and higher horizontal and vertical resolution, and a revised coupling procedure with the aid of the coupling software YAC (Yet Another Coupler). The model performance is evaluated against observationally based data sets and compared with the previous version. Ensemble simulations for the period 1979–2016 reveal that Arctic sea ice is thicker in all seasons and closer to observations than in the previous version. Wintertime biases in sea-ice extent, upper ocean temperatures, and near-surface air temperatures are reduced, while summertime biases are of similar magnitude as in the previous version. Problematic issues of the current model configuration and potential corrective measures and further developments are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various temporal and spatial changes have manifested in Arctic storm activities, including the occurrence of the anomalously intense storms in the summers of 2012 and 2016, along with the amplified warming and rapidly decreased sea ice. To detect the variability of and changes in storm activity and understand its role in sea ice changes, we examined summer storm count and intensity year-by-year from ensemble hindcast simulations with an Arctic regional coupled climate model for the period of 1948–2008. The results indicated that the model realistically simulated the climatological spatial structure of the storm activity, characterized by the storm count and intensity. The simulated storm count captures the variability derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis, though the simulated one is higher than that in the reanalysis. This could be attributed to the higher resolution of the model that may better represent smaller and shallower cyclones. The composite analysis shows that intense storms tend to form a low-pressure pattern with centers over the Kara Sea and Chukchi Sea, respectively, generating cyclonic circulation over the North Atlantic and North Pacific Arctic Ocean. The former drives intensification of the transpolar drift and Fram Strait sea ice export, and the latter suppresses thick ice transport from the Canada Basin to the Beaufort–Chukchi Seas, in spite of an increase in sea ice transport to the East Siberian Sea. Associated with these changes in sea ice transport, sea ice concentration and thickness show large decreases in the Barents–Kara Seas and the Chukchi–East-Siberian Seas, respectively. Energy budgets analysis suggests that more numerous intense storms substantially decrease the downward net sea ice heat fluxes, including net radiative fluxes, turbulent fluxes, and oceanic heat fluxes, compared with that when a lower number of intense storms occur. The decrease in the heat fluxes could be attributable to an increased cloudiness and the resultant reduction of downward shortwave radiation, as well as a destabilized boundary layer induced increase in upward turbulent fluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is strong evidence that diminishing sea ice cover and thus Arctic warming is linked to changes of mid-latitude atmospheric flow patterns. A dynamical stratospheric pathway thereby plays a major role in connecting the Arctic warming to changes in mid-latitude weather and climate via troposphere-stratosphere coupling. As shortcomings concerning the coupling in many models show, a realistic representation of stratospheric processes is crucial for understanding and simulating these linkages. In this context this work comprises the analysis of an ensemble climatology of seasonal experiments (September – May) from 1979/80 to 2016/17. The model study was carried out with a high-resolution, nonhydrostatic global atmospheric general circulation model in numerical weather prediction mode (ICON-NWP). Aside from quantifying how well the dynamical stratospheric pathway is represented in ICON, this study focusses on the model performance in the stratosphere over seasonal time scales. A key question of this study is, how well ICON-NWP can capture the variability of the stratospheric polar vortex and what are possible model shortcomings that could affect future studies. In this setup the variability of the polar vortex in winter is rather strong, nevertheless the model exhibits some limitations in simulating the two-way troposphere-stratosphere coupling. The verification of dynamical processes in the stratosphere in ICON is a first step towards an improved seasonal prediction of Northern Hemisphere winter patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has demonstrated that additional winter radiosonde observations in Arctic regions enhance the predictability of mid-latitude weather extremes by reducing uncertainty in the flow of localised tropopause polar vortices. The impacts of additional Arctic observations during summer are usually confined to high latitudes and they are difficult to realize at mid-latitudes because of the limited scale of localised tropopause polar vortices. However, in certain climatic states, the jet stream can intrude remarkably into the mid-latitudes, even in summer; thus, additional Arctic observations might improve analysis validity and forecast skill for summer atmospheric circulations over the Northern Hemisphere. This study examined such cases that occurred in 2016 by focusing on the prediction of the intensity and track of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic and North Pacific, because TCs are representative of extreme weather in summer. The predictabilities of three TCs were found influenced by additional Arctic observations. Comparisons with ensemble reanalysis data revealed that large errors propagate from the data-sparse Arctic into the mid-latitudes, together with high-potential-vorticity air. Ensemble forecast experiments with different reanalysis data confirmed that additional Arctic observations sometimes improve the initial conditions of upper-level troposphere circulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]