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Many coastal areas currently at risk of flooding in New Zealand will in the not-too-distant future suffer increased intensity and frequency of Climate Change-Related Flooding Hazards (CCRFH) (Church et al., 2013; Woodruff et al., 2013). STRAND is a (Royal Society of New Zealand) Marsden-funded project (2021-2024) that aims to forecast effects of CCRFH on residential property values. The components of the project include financial modelling, multicriteria decision analysis (Coastal Asset Risk Index: CARI) and physical modelling. The latter applies projections of sea level rise relative to terrain data and the situated properties, incorporating outputs from hydrogeological (groundwater) models, tidal (efficiency) data and precipitation forecasts. This abstract updates on progress with a GIS-based physical model of future flooding in South Dunedin (Nguyen et al, 2019). A pilot version of the model has been implemented (Moore et al, 2022), addressing flooding due to CCRFH through bathtub (SLR applied directly to the DEM relative to MHWS-MSL) and geometric (as above, but relative to a groundwater surface model and tidal efficiency) modes. For both, Monte Carlo simulation was applied to model uncertainty in the DEM, SLR scenario and groundwater surface. In addressing limitations of the pilot model, we will document progress on a thorough analysis of sources of uncertainty stated as before, and architecture choice (climate change scenarios, inundation models, zero baselines and spatial resolutions), prior to a comprehensive model run using Nesi high-performance computing facilities. This phase is applied to the South Dunedin scenario only, with the optimal parameters for uncertainty modelling a architectures tested being used for Christchurch and Tauranga scenarios, along with precipitation model output.

Have financial businesses changed their behaviour in the aftermath of global financial crisis? We address this question by introducing a new and more parsimonious method to quantify the level of financial misconduct and apply this to financial offences between 2004 and 2016. This exercise allows us to investigate whether Capture-Recapture methods can be deployed to handle problems of partial observability and how they compare to previous methods set out to achieve the same goal. In our two stage approach, first, we estimate the rate at which offending businesses are detected, then we look at how the number of detected offenders changed after 2010, and use these two layers of information to make inferences on the deterrent effect of financial regulation. Our results offer evidence that a drop in the number of detected offences post-global financial crisis was driven largely by improved deterrence.

The European Union (EU) has redefined the energy sphere in Europe over the last three decades. Transnational policies targeting liberalization and integration, energy efficiency, renewables, carbon pricing, and energy security have led to major steps forward in terms of a more secure, integrated, and environmentally friendly energy supply. This paper explores, through the lenses of a paradigm shift and transition pathways, how the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) grouping might advance its own energy trilemma through greater energy cooperation. We provide evidence that ASEAN has lagged behind in terms of energy transition, representing considerable risks in multiple forms - most notably, political and physical climate risks from failing to meet the Paris Agreement targets and the risk of stranded assets if accelerated transition is achieved. However, accelerated transition could come in many forms. By drawing on the EU experience, we argue that an energy policy for ASEAN should explicitly pursue a dual transition pathway strategy to yield the best outcome in terms of the energy trilemma. First, an "ASEAN Supergrid" supported by a single energy market and by common carbon pricing would "green" urban and industrial demand. Second, "Distributed Smart Grids" would help reap the social and economic benefits of providing electricity to the rural/remotely located population that have hitherto not had access to electricity. This is a dual transnational and local approach that contrasts with energy transition defined at national level. This interconnected approach should yield security, environmental, and economic dividends.