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Climate change is resulting in significant transformations in mountain areas all over the world, causing the melting of glacier ice, reduction in snow accumulation, and permafrost loss. Changes in the mountain cryosphere are not only modifying flora and fauna distributions but also affecting the stability of slopes in those regions. For all these reasons, and because of the risks these phenomena pose to the population, the dentification of dangerous areas is a crucial step in the development of risk reduction strategies. While several methods and examples exist that cover the assessment and computation of single sub-components, there is still a lack of application of risk assessment due to glacier melting over large areas in which the final result can be directly employed in the design of risk mitigation policies at regional and municipal levels. This research is focused on landslides and gravitational movements on slopes resulting from rapid glacier melting phenomena in the Valle d'Aosta region in Italy, with the aim of providing a tool that can support spatial planning in response to climate change in Alpine environments. Through the conceptualization and development of a GIS-based and multi-criteria approach, risk is then estimated by defining hazard indices that consider different aspects, combining the experience acquired from studies carried out in various disciplinary fields, to obtain a framework at the regional level. This first assessment is then deepened for the Lys River Valley, where the mapping of hazardous areas was implemented, obtaining a classification of buildings according to their hazard score to estimate the potential damage and total risk relating to possible slope instability events due to ice melt at the local scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deprivation of historical and cultural testimony has a direct impact on a territory and its local communities, leading to the loss of social cohesiveness, identity values, and resources that come from sustainable tourism. Even though international action frameworks (Hyogo Framework for Action, Sendai Framework for Action, and 2030 Sustainable Development Goals) emphasise how important it is to recognise the relationship between heritage, society, and territory, a strategic and sustainable vision of participatory conservation and safeguarding is still required on a local level. Through the activities implemented within the SIRIUS and RESTART projects, led by the Department of Cultural Heritage, University of Bologna, this paper aims to stimulate a reflection on how the cultural heritage of a place might constitute an effective resilience tool for the impacted populations, with a focus on young citizens. As a transversal element in achieving the 17 Sustainable Development Goals, cultural heritage can play a significant role in the establishment of a "risk culture" among residents and visitors, promoting the adoption of responsible behaviours for one's own safety in an emergency and for the better preservation of cultural assets. In a broader perspective, this strategy will support "climate-sensitive" tourism and citizenship, which can facilitate adaptation to local climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditional coastal flood risk prediction often overlooks critical geographic features, underscoring the need for accurate risk prediction in coastal cities to ensure resilience. This study enhances the prediction of coastal flood occurrence by utilizing the Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) approach. This approach employed models—random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbor (kNN), and artificial neural networks (ANN)—and compared them to the IPCC risk framework. This study used El Salvador as a demonstration case. The models incorporated seven input variables: extreme sea level, coastline proximity, elevation, slope, mangrove distance, population, and settlement type. With a recall score of 0.67 and precision of 0.86, the RF model outperformed the other models and the IPCC approach, which could avoid imbalanced datasets and standard scaler issues. The RF model improved the reliability of flood risk assessments by reducing false negatives. Based on the RF model output, scenario analysis predicted a significant increase in flood occurrences by 2100, mainly under RCP8.5 with SSP5. The study also highlights that the continuous mangrove along the coastline will reduce coastal flood occurrences. The GeoAI approach results suggest its potential for coastal flood risk management, emphasizing the need to integrate natural defenses, such as mangroves, for coastal resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In many administrative entities, there is little information on the accessibility of critical resources such as food, water, healthcare and fuel. Yet the lack of accessibility to critical resources can be a risk-mitigating factor. Indeed, people who are not physically threatened by a hazard can be put at risk by the fact that they lack critical resources. In the specific context of an area threatened by lava flows and characterized by a scarcity of accessible and reliable data, we assessed the accessibility of critical resources in Goma, in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a densely populated city located at the foot of the Nyiragongo volcano. Our study shows that by mapping the location of critical resources and characterizing their accessibility, we can systematically identify underserviced urban areas that are consequently more vulnerable to risks, and in our study to volcanic risks.

Abstract With their livelihoods intricately linked to nature, local/rural communities have always been vulnerable to environmental risks. They have used Indigenous and Local Knowledge (hereafter referred to as IK) garnered over generations to cope with, adapt and respond to natural/environmental hazards. Although Indigenous/Local communities have internalised IK of disaster risk management (DRM), the nexus has not been well established, albeit having the potential to contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This paper argues that IK is an esteemed model of endurance, resilience and resistance in the history of DRM that is invaluable in achieving the SDGs. Joined action between IK and DRM would have more significant and mutually reinforcing development impacts. Underpinned by the double/triple nexus conceptual framework, this paper utilises a qualitative, exploratory, and analytical methodological approach to argue for integrating IK, DRM and the SDGs. Insights from the findings reveal that stakeholder application of the interlinkages would expedite achieving more significant sustainable development outcomes in a complementary, supportive way. The connections will enhance knowledge and understanding of approaches that combine multiple development themes and sectors and advance the literature on nexus approaches, particularly in DRM and sustainable development. Developing and resource-constrained countries with minimal application of scientific knowledge in their DRM frameworks will benefit most from the interlinkages.

INTRODUCTION: Climate change is a global phenomenon with far-reaching consequences, and its impact on human health is a growing concern. The intricate interplay of various factors makes it challenging to accurately predict and understand the implications of climate change on human well-being. Conventional methodologies have limitations in comprehensively addressing the complexity and nonlinearity inherent in the relationships between climate change and health outcomes. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective of this paper is to develop a robust theoretical framework that can effectively analyze and interpret the intricate web of variables influencing the human health impacts of climate change. By doing so, we aim to overcome the limitations of conventional approaches and provide a more nuanced understanding of the complex relationships involved. Furthermore, we seek to explore practical applications of this theoretical framework to enhance our ability to predict, mitigate, and adapt to the diverse health challenges posed by a changing climate. METHODS: Addressing the challenges outlined in the objectives, this study introduces the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) framework, acknowledging its significance in capturing the nuanced dynamics of health effects linked to climate change. The research utilizes a blend of field observations, expert interviews, key informant interviews, and an extensive literature review to shape the development of the CAS framework. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The proposed CAS framework categorizes findings into six key sub-systems: ecological services, extreme weather, infectious diseases, food security, disaster risk management, and clinical public health. The study employs agent-based modeling, using causal loop diagrams (CLDs) tailored for each CAS sub-system. A set of identified variables is incorporated into predictive modeling to enhance the understanding of health outcomes within the CAS framework. Through a combination of theoretical development and practical application, this paper aspires to contribute valuable insights to the interdisciplinary field of climate change and health. Integrating agent-based modeling and CLDs enhances the predictive capabilities required for effective health outcome analysis in the context of climate change. CONCLUSION: This paper serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, researchers, and public health professionals by employing a CAS framework to understand and assess the complex network of health impacts associated with climate change. It offers insights into effective strategies for safeguarding human health amidst current and future climate challenges.

Abstract The primary aim of this study was to develop a model of a socially inclusive climate risk insurance (CRI) mechanism based on the differential risk transfer approach. This study focused on the department of La Guajira, Colombia, as a case study. La Guajira is the department in Colombia that, due to its critical disaster risk conditions, presents the adequate configuration for implementing a climate risk transfer mechanism. The article starts by analyzing risk conditions by using secondary data. Based on fieldwork, this research explored the perspectives of the most vulnerable sectors in La Guajira Department on the socioeconomic impacts and needs they experience regarding climate-related hazards, their adaptive measures for risk reduction, and their willingness to adopt CRI. This represents the fundamental input for the formulation of the CRI model. Consequently, this research proposed an operational structure as input for future implementations of the model. The results indicate that national and local disaster risk management public policies align with the sectors’ needs and priorities. Strengthening sectoral associations can enhance representation in CRI projects. In-kind indemnization is preferred for women entrepreneurs and the indigenous community. The CRI model includes a risk pool through the family compensation fund of La Guajira as a sectoral agglomerator, with contingent credit and traditional/parametric insurance. The methodology developed in this study can be applied in different contexts worldwide as a guidance for informing national and international climate risk finance initiatives.

Introduction: Weather-based index insurance is a financial instrument which allows smallholder farmers to protect themselves against climate shocks such as droughts and floods. In many cases, insurance indices are based on one or more earth observation datasets (e.g., rainfall, soil moisture, vegetative health) which are partly covering periods of more than 40 years. While remote sensing products and their associated data have improved over this time, understanding the historical climate variability and trends remains an essential piece in ensuring the development of indexes that best represent farmers' risks. From a practical perspective, shortening time series to limit the risk of understudied climate variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, sometimes seems to be a quick solution. However, shorter time series jeopardize the overall robustness of the index. Therefore, understanding the links between climate variability, index design, and implications for farmers is key. Weather-based index insurance products in Sahelian West Africa usually face a challenge in robustly quantify underlying climatic decadal variation in seasonal rainfall. Methods: This study analyzes the influence of decadal shifts in rainfall patterns in Sahelian West Africa, in particular Senegal, on index insurance calibration and design, concluding with practical recommendations for the next generation of drought risk finance instruments in the region. Results: Our findings indicate that decadal variability has not led to a clear decrease in payouts in recent years compared to earlier years, despite an overall increase in seasonal rainfall. Rather, we find that interannual variability has increased which may be a more critical factor for assessing farmers' agricultural risk than the increase in total rainfall. Discussion: Focusing on key moments of the cropping calendar in the design of an index shows that an increase in the total average rainfall per season does not result in fewer payouts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This pioneering study explores the geospatial and temporal patterns of natural and human-induced disasters from 1900 to 2024, providing essential insights into their global distribution and impacts. Significant trends and disparities in disaster occurrences and their widespread consequences are revealed through the utilization of the comprehensive international EM-DAT database. The results showed a dramatic escalation in both natural and man-made (technological) disasters over the decades, with notable surges in the 1991–2000 and 2001–2010 periods. A total of 25,836 disasters were recorded worldwide, of which 69.41% were natural disasters (16,567) and 30.59% were man-made (technological) disasters (9269). The most significant increase in natural disasters occurred from 1961–1970, while man-made (technological) disasters surged substantially from 1981–1990. Seasonal trends reveal that floods peak in January and July, while storms are most frequent in June and October. Droughts and floods are the most devastating in terms of human lives, while storms and earthquakes cause the highest economic losses. The most substantial economic losses were reported during the 2001–2010 period, driven by catastrophic natural disasters in Asia and North America. Also, Asia was highlighted by our research as the most disaster-prone continent, accounting for 41.75% of global events, with 61.89% of these events being natural disasters. Oceania, despite experiencing fewer total disasters, shows a remarkable 91.51% of these as natural disasters. Africa is notable for its high incidence of man-made (technological) disasters, which constitute 43.79% of the continent's disaster events. Europe, representing 11.96% of total disasters, exhibits a balanced distribution but tends towards natural disasters at 64.54%. Examining specific countries, China, India, and the United States emerged as the countries most frequently affected by both types of disasters. The impact of these disasters has been immense, with economic losses reaching their highest during the decade of 2010–2020, largely due to natural disasters. The human toll has been equally significant, with Asia recording the most fatalities and Africa the most injuries. Pearson's correlation analysis identified statistically significant links between socioeconomic factors and the effects of disasters. It shows that nations with higher GDP per capita and better governance quality tend to experience fewer disasters and less severe negative consequences. These insights highlight the urgent need for tailored disaster risk management strategies that address the distinct challenges and impacts in various regions. By understanding historical disaster patterns, policymakers and stakeholders can better anticipate and manage future risks, ultimately safeguarding lives and economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past few decades, communication has evolved significantly, driven by new technologies and digital connections, with the Internet and mobile phones transforming traditional communication methods. This shift has also impacted disaster risk awareness-raising, requiring messages to adapt to modern digital platforms. This article describes an effort to engage younger generations with the issue of sea level rise, critical yet often overlooked despite its significant impact on global coastal areas, through the serious digital game "Inundation". Presented for the first time, the game offers an engaging experience where players protect territories from coastal flooding while understanding rising seas' causes, effects, and impacts. Feedback from student beta testers highlighted the game's effectiveness in conveying scientific concepts and increasing awareness about this pressing issue. The game's innovative design, particularly its visual representation of sea level rise at a pace more relatable to human perception, fills a gap in environmental education by making complex topics accessible and engaging. While evaluating the impact of such tools is challenging, initial feedback suggests that "Inundation" has significant potential to foster disaster preparedness and proactive safeguarding actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing hazards, when combined with our vulnerabilities, lead to the occurrence of natural and human-induced disasters such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, and technological accidents. In this context, regardless of whether the source of the hazard is natural or human-induced, it would not be incorrect to say that disasters, when evaluated in terms of their outcomes, are ultimately human-made. Disaster management is a comprehensive process that encompasses the measures, interventions, and recovery efforts taken before, during, and after various disasters that society may face. This process requires not only the involvement of government institutions or non-governmental organizations but also the participation of individuals and all segments of society. In Turkey, the legal framework established for disaster management defines the roles, responsibilities, and cooperation mechanisms of government institutions and sectors at different levels. When evaluating current practices and implementations, it is clear that existing legal regulations need to be updated to strengthen collaboration and coordination in disaster risk reduction, preparedness, response, and recovery processes. This study aims to evaluate Turkey’s disaster management legislation from the perspective of integrated disaster management. Such an evaluation seeks to identify the deficiencies in the current disaster management process and contribute to the creation of a more effective disaster management strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan has faced significant economic losses due to catastrophes, specifically floods. This study aims to assess the ripple effects of the 2022 floods, focusing on the Construction Industry, which has been gaining importance in the national economy, and on the resilience of economic sectors absorbing the negative shocks from floods. The study uses the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) Input-Output database for Pakistan using the Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model (DIIM) with the Fuzzy Full Consistency Method (F-FUCOM). The analysis revealed that the Construction Industry's weak resilience resulted in a prolonged recovery period and that the lack of flood risk mitigation infrastructure was identified as the most critical. The results suggest that policymakers prioritise such infrastructures, like dams, early warning systems, and transportation infrastructure, to enhance the resilience of the overall economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pacific Island Countries and Territories are highly exposed to natural disasters, intensified by increases in frequency and force of extreme weather events. Pacific societies, like in Vanuatu, have been shaped in many ways by such natural disasters; reflected in customary practices and social fabric of rural coastal communities. When a natural disaster occurs, government attention justifiably focuses on channelling and coordinating international humanitarian aid to fill gaps in capacity and resourcing national recovery efforts. However, central to disaster recovery, particularly in the immediate aftermath of disruption, are the ways that local people support each other (within and between communities). Disconnects between national and local recovery efforts are common and stand to inhibit effective responses. This study aims to understand horizontal, self-organised community-to-community support systems and communities’ post-disaster engagement with external aid. It draws from two different datasets: i) the observations collected through the emergency relief work led by the National Disaster Management Office in Vanuatu shortly after the 2023 twin tropical cyclones Judy and Kevin hit the country, as well as ii) the loss and damage survey led by the Vanuatu Fisheries Department to estimate the level of damage these cyclones caused in various regions of Vanuatu. Through this process, we highlight the social systems that enable community-to-community support, as well as potential opportunities for external-aid to support communities in a more efficient manner. Results reveal that community-to-community support is critical in the first weeks post-disaster. Recognizing the roles that different support networks play at different stages of disaster response is critical not only to improving people's and institutions' ability to bounce back from particular disruptions, but also in broader efforts to strengthen community resilience in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary aim of this study was to develop a model of a socially inclusive climate risk insurance (CRI) mechanism based on the differential risk transfer approach. This study focused on the department of La Guajira, Colombia, as a case study. La Guajira is the department in Colombia that, due to its critical disaster risk conditions, presents the adequate configuration for implementing a climate risk transfer mechanism. The article starts by analyzing risk conditions by using secondary data. Based on fieldwork, this research explored the perspectives of the most vulnerable sectors in La Guajira Department on the socioeconomic impacts and needs they experience regarding climate-related hazards, their adaptive measures for risk reduction, and their willingness to adopt CRI. This represents the fundamental input for the formulation of the CRI model. Consequently, this research proposed an operational structure as input for future implementations of the model. The results indicate that national and local disaster risk management public policies align with the sectors' needs and priorities. Strengthening sectoral associations can enhance representation in CRI projects. In-kind indemnization is preferred for women entrepreneurs and the indigenous community. The CRI model includes a risk pool through the family compensation fund of La Guajira as a sectoral agglomerator, with contingent credit and traditional/parametric insurance. The methodology developed in this study can be applied in different contexts worldwide as a guidance for informing national and international climate risk finance initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After thirty-two years of the devastating earthquake in Mexico City in 1985, the city was again shaken by the consequences of the 7.1 Mw earthquake that struck central Mexico on September 19, 2017. The impact of the disaster nationwide was 369 deaths, 6000 injured, 256,000 total affected people, and damages in the order of US$ 6 billion. Although the earthquake's impact figures are not consistent yet, some sources indicate that in Mexico City alone, the earthquake caused 228 deaths, 44 collapsed buildings, and 73,000 damaged properties, including 5765 homes and 973 schools. The effect on the economy was estimated at between 0.1 and 0.3% of GDP for 2018, and the funds needed for reconstruction were calculated at more than US$3.4 billion. Local government responses to the earthquake were dosed and limited to immediate actions based on a traditional and militarized perspective. Once again, after the quake hit, city authorities and urban planners introduced several actions and initiatives to rethink how disasters can be managed in the city. Regular assessment of impacts on the security of the facilities at risk, liability, damages and losses initiatives, changes to the law, and purges in the local civil protection offices were carried on. As we argue in this article, all these actions are increasingly seen as a cause of serious concerns about the accountability of the authorities responsible for civil protection and risk management at the different levels of government. This article briefly introduces the renewed interest that has emerged in recent years around the globe, including Mexico City, regarding the increasing demands for accountability related to disasters. In the second section, the methodology of the article is described. It will then examine the results and discussion of the analysis of the disaster triggered by the earthquake of September 19, 2017. This included three major topics: (1) background from a hazard perspective and a general characterization of earthquake exposure, (2) damages and losses, and (3) insights into disaster management. The final section concerning closing remarks aims to reflect on future challenges for disaster accountability and community involvement in disaster risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heritage plays a critical role in sustainability. The absence of studies examining core competencies among UNESCO actors for disaster risk management (DRM) and preparedness in heritage sites prompted this survey. Respondents from 59 countries revealed a high rating of all listed competencies with significant discrepancies concerning relationship-building requiring attention. Additionally, substantial variations in competencies were linked to factors such as age, job positions, and previous experiences with disaster damages. Holistic DRM proficiency is the primary predictor of disaster preparedness within heritage sites. Thus, enhancing preparedness through experiential learning and coordinated knowledge-sharing mechanisms will preserve our collective heritage for sustainable futures.

Disasters, disaster risks, and disaster risk management (DRM) present complex temporalities that must be taken into consideration when conducting evaluations that assist the choice of new strategies. Given the non-linearity of change, including long-term perspectives can modify the evaluation results and recommendations, but little is known about how time horizons are selected in DRM evaluation. This exploratory study investigates the determinants that affect what time horizon is considered in DRM evaluation. 12 semi-structured interviews with professional evaluators from different parts of the world were conducted in spring 2022. Their experiences indicate that the interpretation of what is long term in DRM evaluation is context-dependent. The factors determining if time horizons are expanded or narrowed relate to four categories: the actors involved in the evaluation, the purpose of the evaluation, the resources available to conduct the evaluation, and the specific DRM context. It is concluded that DRM evaluation seems to be quite similar to other public policy evaluations, except the DRM context that plays an important role by determining the timing of the evaluation, which itself affects what time horizon should be and/or is considered.

AbstractThis paper aims to showcase the community mapping process that took place in the El Pacífico neighborhood in the city of Medellín, Colombia, which runs alongside the urban-rural border of the high slope of the city’s Comuna 8. The geographical and socio-economic challenges that the community has historically faced have come to light throughout the years in the form of geological hazards and disasters that have led to the destruction of several buildings in the neighborhood, threatening the community’s permanence.As these scenarios intensified, the community sought to participate in research projects with both local and international partners to better understand how to improve their disaster risk management practices. URBE Latam, which is one of these experiences, has been working to improve the neighborhood’s data generation practices, adopting the territorial definitions proposed by Milton Santos in Espaço e Método, coupled with participatory mapping strategies for disaster risk reduction during a three-year period.This has resulted in the mapping of El Pacífico and the improvement of the local grassroot organization’s territorial management practices. These maps have served as tools for the community’s empowerment when dealing with public institutions, as well as for planning and managing their own territorial agendas for the future.