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Understanding Kazakhstan's plague history is crucial for early warning and effective health disaster management. We used descriptive-analytical methods to analyze spatial data for human cases in natural plague foci in Kazakhstan during 1926-2003. The findings revealed 565 human cases across 82 outbreaks in Almaty (32.22%), Aktobe (1.59%), Atyrau (4.42%), Mangystau (21.24%), and Kyzylorda (40.53%) oblasts. Before antibiotic drugs were introduced in 1947-1948, major plague outbreaks occurred in 1926, 1929, 1945, 1947, and 1948, constituting 80.7% of human transmission. Plague spread through flea bites, camel handling, wild animal contact, aerosol transmissions, and rodent bites. Patients were up to 86 years of age; 49.9% were male and 50.1% female. Pulmonary cases were reported most frequently (72.4%), and person-to-person infection occurred at an incidence rate of 0.29 cases/10,000 population. Risk increased with human expansion into natural plague foci areas. Swift diagnosis and treatment are essential for curbing plague outbreaks in Kazakhstan.

This paper has several aims: to determine if Yersinia pestis was the causative agent in the last Scottish plague outbreak in the mid-17th century; map the geographic spread of the epidemic and isolate potential contributing factors to its spread and severity; and examine funerary behaviours in the context of a serious plague epidemic in early modern Scotland. Results confirm the presence of Y. pestis in individuals associated with a mid-17th century plague pit in Aberdeen. This is the first time this pathogen has been identified in an archaeological sample from Scotland. The geographic spread of the plague from 1644 through to 1649 is generally, with some key exceptions, restricted to the central lowlands of Scotland. The role of administrative responses to the epidemic in managing its spread and distribution is unclear. Finally, normative funerary practices tended to co-exist with mass burial scenarios. In conclusion, the distribution of the epidemic is arguably a function of population density/distribution, transportation networks, and the chaos associated with the concurrent civil war. Administrative responses to the epidemic likely had a variable, albeit limited, effect in the central lowlands. More peripheral cities, such as Aberdeen, while also employing sophisticated plague prevention measures, were perhaps initially spared simply due to their distance from the central plague belt. It is unclear if a general fear of the dead and contracting the Pest from plague victims can be used to characterise mid-17th century Scottish public opinion. Mass burial appears to have been a practical approach to the logistical problems mass mortality presented, while many instances of normative burial treatment can also be seen., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Dittmar et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Japan experienced a large outbreak of wild poliovirus in the 1960s. The government made an exceptional decision to import oral polio vaccines (OPVs) from the Soviet Union and Canada while bypassing the usual approval process for medical products. Mass vaccination and subsequent, routine immunization successfully contained the wild poliovirus; the last case in Japan was reported in 1980. Domestic OPV had been used to sustain Japan's polio-free state. In 2012, the world's first inactivated polio vaccine developed from the Sabin vaccine replaced OPVs. Domestic vaccines combined with Sabin-derived inactivated polio vaccine are currently used in Japan. When the World Health Assembly announced the Global Polio Eradication Initiative in 1988, the Japanese government made a commitment to support endemic countries. The Japan International Cooperation Agency supported the establishment of microbiological laboratories, surveillance, distribution of polio vaccines and capacity building. Vaccine-derived poliovirus emerged as a new, international risk in the early 2000s. Vaccine-derived poliovirus was also detected in several Asian countries and required an outbreak response with additional vaccinations and strengthened surveillance. Genetically stable, novel, oral polio vaccine type 2 became available for use in outbreak responses and was used in Indonesia. Japan maintains its commitment to work toward the eradication of the poliovirus., Competing Interests: This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors. Y.H. is a principal investigator for COVID-19 vaccine trial of Shionogi Pharma. The other authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2024 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

This paper attends to examine the historical materials related to smallpox in the Republic of China Daily from 1916 to 1949, in terms of the prevalence of smallpox, diagnosis and treatment, and societal responses recorded. It was found that smallpox had many different names recorded in the newspaper, and most of them related to the symptoms and the epidemic features. It was reported that smallpox, as an epidemic, occurred almost every year from 1916 to 1949. Among them, six serious outbreaks happened in 1918, 1921-1922, 1926, 1929-1930, 1932-1936, and 1946. It was found that smallpox was prevalent in winter and spring with its symptoms in the four periods: onset, rash, pustulation, and decrustation. Its treatment focused on clearing heat (Qing Re) and detoxification or warming and tonifying (Wen Bu) with traditional Chinese medicine.

The image of dazed, plague-infected rats coming out of their nests and performing a pirouette in front of the surprised eyes of humans before dying is one well-known to us through Albert Camus's The Plague (1947). This article examines the historical roots of this image and its emergence in French missionary narratives about plague outbreaks in the Chinese province of Yunnan in the 1870s on the eve of the Third Plague Pandemic. Showing that accounts of the "staggering rat" were not meant as naturalist observations of a zoonotic disease, as is generally assumed by historians, but as a cosmological, end-of-the-world narrative with a colonial agenda, the article argues for an approach to historical accounts of epidemics that does not succumb to the current trend of "virus hunting" in the archive, but rather takes colonial outbreak narratives ethnographically seriously., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Breakthroughs in international biomedical science circa 1900 meant that plague could be contained through strict quarantine regulations. These measures were successfully deployed with help from local governments during outbreaks of pneumonic plague in Manchuria (1910-11), Shanxi (1918), and elsewhere in North China. This containment shows the effectiveness of uniting international knowledge and local cooperation in disaster response. Yet, in later outbreaks in similar locations, control measures identical to those instituted a decade earlier were rejected, and plague spread largely unchecked. Historical case studies of the control and spread of infectious disease in North China reveal the complexities of the relationship between global knowledge and its broader, local integration, variation in what constitutes effective 'local' cooperation in adopting international knowledge, and the paramount importance of the locality to the landscape of disaster response. History can reveal critical issues in localisation of disaster response still salient today., (© 2024 ODI.)

Until the early twentieth century, populations on many Pacific Islands had never experienced measles. As travel to the Pacific Islands by Europeans became more common, the arrival of measles and other pathogens had devastating consequences. In 1911, Rotuma in Fiji was hit by a measles epidemic, which killed 13% of the island population. Detailed records show two mortality peaks, with individuals reported as dying solely from measles in the first and from measles and diarrhoea in the second. Measles is known to disrupt immune system function. Here, we investigate whether the pattern of mortality on Rotuma in 1911 was a consequence of the immunosuppressive effects of measles. We use a compartmental model to simulate measles infection and immunosuppression. Whilst immunosuppressed, we assume that individuals are vulnerable to dysfunctional reactions triggered by either (i) a newly introduced infectious agent arriving at the same time as measles or (ii) microbes already present in the population in a pre-existing equilibrium state. We show that both forms of the immunosuppression model provide a plausible fit to the data and that the inclusion of immunosuppression in the model leads to more realistic estimates of measles epidemiological parameters than when immunosuppression is not included.

Arboviruses are an existing and expanding threat globally, with the potential for causing devastating health and socioeconomic impacts. Mitigating this threat necessitates a One Health approach that integrates vector surveillance, rapid disease detection, and innovative prevention and control measures. In Southern Africa, limited data on the epidemiology of arboviruses, their vectors, and their hosts prevent an effective response. We reviewed the current knowledge on arboviruses in Southern Africa and identified opportunities for further research. A literature search was conducted to identify studies published on arboviruses in 10 tropical and temperate countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) from 1900 onward. We identified 280 studies, half (51.1%) originating from South Africa, that described 31 arboviral species, their vectors, and their clinical effects on hosts reported in the region. Arboviral research flourished in the SADC in the mid-20 th century but then declined, before reemerging in the last two decades. Recent research consists largely of case reports describing outbreaks. Historical vector surveillance and serosurveys from the mid-20 th century suggest that arboviruses are plentiful across Southern Africa, but large gaps remain in the current understanding of arboviral distribution, transmission dynamics, and public health impact.

At the end of the 15th century, an epidemic outbreak occurred in Europe for which the cause was previously unknown. Clinical findings included numerous ulcerations and condylomas as well as disorders of the cardiovascular and neurologic systems. The disease, which had many names at the time and killed about 5 million people, is referred to as syphilis in today's medical terminology. The epidemiology of syphilis is complex and represents an important issue, not only historically but also scientifically, in the development of medicine. Several theories emerged about the origin of this disease, including pre-Columbian and Columbian ones. This contribution aims to present the history of the origin of syphilis, with particular emphasis on the first reports of the disease in Poland., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

During the sixteenth century, Italian scholars revised their conception of the field of history so that its purposes went beyond providing political and morally edifying narratives. These scholars contended that history must also account for culture and nature in an encyclopedic fashion. In the same years, numerous newly available texts from antiquity, the Byzantine empire, and the Middle Ages provided insight into the character of earlier outbreaks of plague. Italian physicians, embracing new visions of the field of history, the culture of humanism, and an inductivist epistemology, used these texts to argue that there were continuities among ancient, medieval, and Renaissance epidemics. They catalogued plague and formed historical categories based on severity and perceived origins, leading to the rejection of the conclusions of fourteenth-century western Europeans who viewed the plague of 1347-1353 as unprecedented. These erudite physicians saw medieval plague to be one example of the extreme epidemics that have regularly occurred throughout history., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Oguntola Odunbaku Sapara Williams (born Alexander Johnson Williams, 1861-1935) was a Fellow of the Royal Institute of Public Health. This paper attempts to highlight the effort of an African doctor to fight disease outbreaks during the African colonial era. His uninterrupted 32 years career as a colonial medical officer in one of the British colonies in West Africa, provided superintendence for the eradication of smallpox as a result of this, he was credited with the demystification of metaphysical involvement in the smallpox epidemic and thus eradication of smallpox in the Lagos colony. He also provided leadership for the control of bubonic plague, and tuberculosis epidemics and pioneered initiatives to reduce maternal and infant mortality by vaccination, enactment of public health law, environmental sanitation, and health education in Southwest Nigeria., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of FEMS.)

Typhus is an acute febrile disease caused by a series of bacteria called Rickettsia that is transmitted by insects such as lice, fleas, and ticks. This disease has appeared several times in Iran and caused many casualties. There were some therapeutic measures taken by European physicians in Tehran and medical graduates of the Dar al-Fonun school or expatriates who had studied medical courses in Western countries, even though the taken steps were not enough. Due to the lack of sanitation and cleaning products after the outbreak of World War I in March 1917 and its synchronization with the swift outbreak of Typhus in 1918, heavy casualties followed. In this study, we first examine the prevalence of Typhus in the Qajar dynasty in Iran, and will then focus on the pathological importance of this disease history in Iran. After that, we will study the role of Typhus prevalence and World War I in the Persian famine, malnutrition, and food poverty. Moreover, we investigated the role that this great war had in strengthening the spread of this disease and its role in the death of many Iranian people., (© 2022 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.)

For several decades, the 1918-20 global influenza outbreak has been called "the forgotten pandemic." Although recent scholarly and public interest in the pandemic has complicated the narrative of forgetting, the label has stuck. Highlighting historical evidence of influenza's long-term impact upon survivors, family, and community in Canada, the flu stories presented here, diverse in form and content, verify that a key question in pandemic influenza history is not whether the pandemic was forgotten or remembered, but by whom, and in what ways, it has been suppressed - or foregrounded. By moving beyond the classic epidemic plot line, with beginning, middle, and end, historians can find new methodologies and evidence with which to more fully understand the influenza pandemic's unfolding intersection with colonialism, war, social inequality, and labour struggles in the 20 th century.

The Spanish flu spread from September 23, 1918 to 1920. This disease was one of the historical catastrophes in Iran, and a large number of people in Tehran were infected. Evidence also shows that 5000-10000 out of the 250000 infected people died in Tehran over three years. Besides, an increase was detected in the prevalence of other diseases such as pericarditis, orchitis, mastoiditis, meningitis, optic neuritis, paralysis of the palate, mania, cholera, and dysentery. Overall, five percent of the city were destroyed, and the population and economic development were severely damaged. This study aims to evaluate the importance of the history of local medicine in Tehran, the spread of Spanish flu, World War I, and presence of Russian, Ottoman, and British troops in Iran during the flu outbreak. The critical role of Britain in artificial famine, malnutrition, and drug embargo was assessed, as well., (2022 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.)

The plague of 1630-1632 was one of the deadliest plague epidemics to ever hit Northern Italy, and for many of the affected regions, it was also the last. While accounts on plague during the early 1630s in Florence and Milan are frequent, much less is known about the city of Imola. We analyzed the full skeletal assemblage of four mass graves (n = 133 individuals) at the Lazaretto dell'Osservanza, which date back to the outbreak of 1630-1632 in Imola and evaluated our results by integrating new archival sources. The skeletons showed little evidence of physical trauma and were covered by multiple layers of lime, which is characteristic for epidemic mass mortality sites. We screened 15 teeth for Yersinia pestis aDNA and were able to confirm the presence of plague in Imola via metagenomic analysis. Additionally, we studied a contemporaneous register, in which a friar recorded patient outcomes at the lazaretto during the last year of the epidemic. Our multidisciplinary approach combining historical, osteological and genomic data provided a unique opportunity to reconstruct an in-depth picture of the last plague of Imola through the city's main lazaretto., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Fowl adenoviruses (FAdVs) have long been recognized as critical viral pathogens within the poultry industry, associated with severe economic implications worldwide. This specific group of viruses is responsible for a broad spectrum of diseases in birds, and an increasing occurrence of outbreaks was observed in the last ten years. Since their first discovery forty years ago in South Korea, twelve antigenically distinct serotypes of fowl adenoviruses have been described. This comprehensive review covers the history of fowl adenovirus outbreaks in South Korea and updates the current epidemiological landscape of serotype diversity and replacement as well as challenges in developing effective broadly protective vaccines. In addition, transitions in the prevalence of dominant fowl adenovirus serotypes from 2007 to 2021, alongside the history of intervention strategies, are brought into focus. Finally, future aspects are also discussed.

During the 1854 cholera outbreak in Florence, Italy, Filippo Pacini documented that the cause of the infection was a bacterium. This conclusion was also independently reached by John Snow during the 1854 cholera outbreak in London. By using an epidemiological method, Snow found that the infection spread through a polluted water network. Snow identified a water pump as the source of the disease. After removing the infected handle of this pump, the cases of cholera rapidly began to decrease. A microscopic examination of the water showed organic impurities but no bacteria. This discovery was ignored during Snow's lifetime. In contrast, through microscopy during the autopsies of cholera victims, Pacini observed that the disruption of their intestinal mucosa was closely associated with millions of the bacteria that he called Vibrio cholerae . Via histological techniques, Pacini detected that intestinal mucosa reabsorption dysfunction was the cause of debilitating diarrhoea, vomiting, severe dehydration and death. Nevertheless, his discovery of Vibrio cholerae was ignored during Pacini's lifetime. A survey of Pacini's autographic manuscripts suggests that Pacini and Snow may have shared mutual knowledge within their respective seminal papers. This survey also facilitates, for the first time, the creation of maps that illustrate the worldwide distribution of Pacini's cholera papers from 1854 to 1881. The consistent neglect of Pacini's discovery remains a true enigma.

Competing Interests: Competing interests: Kenton Kroker has received a research grant from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. No other competing interests were declared.

In the late 1930s, the 17D vaccine against yellow fever was produced in record time. 17D was and is an excellent vaccine. Its rapid diffusion led, however, to several problems, the most important among them being the 1942 massive contamination of the vaccine distributed to the US Army by the hepatitis B virus. The US part of this story is relatively well-known, but its Brazilian part much less so. In 1940, scientists who were producing the 17D vaccine in Rio de Janeiro found that it was contaminated by an "icterus virus" that originated in normal human serum. They solved this problem through the exclusion of human serum from vaccine production, but failed to persuade their US colleagues to do the same. The Rio experts, aware of the potential pitfalls of a new technology, carefully supervised the consequences of their vaccination campaigns. They were thus able to rapidly spot problems and eliminate them. By contrast, US scientists, persuaded of their technical superiority and distrustful of warnings that originated from a "less developed" country, neglected to implement basic public health rules. A major disaster followed. ( Am J Public Health . 2021;111(9): 1654-1660. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306313).

Background: This perspective documents the historical aspects of outbreaks of plague of last six decades, establishment of plague surveillance network in India with detailed insights about its activities and recent developments requiring focus on plague surveillance. Human plague was reported in Mulbagal area of Karnataka in 1966-67 only to re-emerge in the country in 1994 in Beed district (Maharashtra) and subsequently in Surat (Gujarat). Later Plague outbreak has been reported in the year 2002 with index case from Village Hatkoti, Shimla District in Himachal Pradesh. The last outbreak reported from India was in 2004 from Village Dangaud, Uttarkashi District in Uttarakhand followed by a period of quiescent since last 17 years., Objectives: During the last few decades, at least three geographical areas experienced outbreaks of plague after silent period of 28 years. We recapitulate the response mechanism for containing outbreaks during the last three outbreaks of plague held in Maharashtra & Gujarat (1994), Himachal Pradesh (2002) and Uttarakhand (2004). We also document the Plague surveillance network of India and its activities which is a comprehensive surveillance system comprising of rodent, flea, canine and human surveillance whose foundation was started in 1964. The recent developments of last decade in terms of revised Human plague surveillance case definitions, Plague surveillance sites, vector control, novel diagnostics and vaccines in our country are also mentioned., Conclusion: The thrust areas in control of plague outbreak are early detection and isolation of cases, timely effective antibiotic treatment, chemoprophylaxis to contacts, strengthening of surveillance system and massive IEC campaign in infected areas. Yersinia pestis (causative agent of Plague) also being an important bioterrorism agent, clinicians need to pay special attention to diagnose and microbiologists must be provided skilled training for laboratory confirmation to this pestilential disease for effective and timely management., (Copyright © 2021 Indian Association of Medical Microbiologists. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Understanding of the impacts of climatic variability on human health remains poor despite a possibly increasing burden of vector-borne diseases under global warming. Numerous socioeconomic variables make such studies challenging during the modern period while studies of climate-disease relationships in historical times are constrained by a lack of long datasets. Previous studies have identified the occurrence of malaria vectors, and their dependence on climate variables, during historical times in northern Europe. Yet, malaria in Sweden in relation to climate variables is understudied and relationships have never been rigorously statistically established. This study seeks to examine the relationship between malaria and climate fluctuations, and to characterise the spatio-temporal variations at parish level during severe malaria years in Sweden 1749-1859., Methods: Symptom-based annual malaria case/death data were obtained from nationwide parish records and military hospital records in Stockholm. Pearson (r p ) and Spearman's rank (r s ) correlation analyses were conducted to evaluate inter-annual relationship between malaria data and long meteorological series. The climate response to larger malaria events was further explored by Superposed Epoch Analysis, and through Geographic Information Systems analysis to map spatial variations of malaria deaths., Results: The number of malaria deaths showed the most significant positive relationship with warm-season temperature of the preceding year. The strongest correlation was found between malaria deaths and the mean temperature of the preceding June-August (r s  = 0.57, p < 0.01) during the 1756-1820 period. Only non-linear patterns can be found in response to precipitation variations. Most malaria hot-spots, during severe malaria years, concentrated in areas around big inland lakes and southern-most Sweden., Conclusions: Unusually warm and/or dry summers appear to have contributed to malaria epidemics due to both indoor winter transmission and the evidenced long incubation and relapse time of P. vivax, but the results also highlight the difficulties in modelling climate-malaria associations. The inter-annual spatial variation of malaria hot-spots further shows that malaria outbreaks were more pronounced in the southern-most region of Sweden in the first half of the nineteenth century compared to the second half of the eighteenth century.

Background: The aims of this systematic review and meta-analysis are to examine the prevalence of adverse mental health outcomes, both short-term and long-term, among SARS patients, healthcare workers and the general public of SARS-affected regions, and to examine the protective and risk factors associated with these mental health outcomes., Methods: We conducted a systematic search of the literature using databases such as Medline, Pubmed, Embase, PsycInfo, Web of Science Core Collection, CNKI, the National Central Library Online Catalog and dissertation databases to identify studies in the English or Chinese language published between January 2003 to May 2020 which reported psychological distress and mental health morbidities among SARS patients, healthcare workers, and the general public in regions with major SARS outbreaks., Results: The literature search yielded 6984 titles. Screening resulted in 80 papers for the review, 35 of which were included in the meta-analysis. The prevalence of post-recovery probable or clinician-diagnosed anxiety disorder, depressive disorder, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among SARS survivors were 19, 20 and 28%, respectively. The prevalence of these outcomes among studies conducted within and beyond 6 months post-discharge was not significantly different. Certain aspects of mental health-related quality of life measures among SARS survivors remained impaired beyond 6 months post-discharge. The prevalence of probable depressive disorder and PTSD among healthcare workers post-SARS were 12 and 11%, respectively. The general public had increased anxiety levels during SARS, but whether there was a clinically significant population-wide mental health impact remained inconclusive. Narrative synthesis revealed occupational exposure to SARS patients and perceived stigmatisation to be risk factors for adverse mental health outcomes among healthcare workers, although causality could not be determined due to the limitations of the studies., Conclusions: The chronicity of psychiatric morbidities among SARS survivors should alert us to the potential long-term mental health complications of covid-19 patients. Healthcare workers working in high-risk venues should be given adequate mental health support. Stigmatisation against patients and healthcare workers should be explored and addressed. The significant risk of bias and high degree of heterogeneity among included studies limited the certainty of the body of evidence of the review.

Epidemic nowcasting broadly refers to assessing the current state by understanding key pathogenic, epidemiologic, clinical and socio-behavioral characteristics of an ongoing outbreak. Its primary objective is to provide situational awareness and inform decisions on control responses. In the event of large-scale sustained emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists need to constantly update their aims and analytics with respect to the rapidly evolving emergence of new questions, data and findings in order to synthesize real-time evidence for policy decisions. In this Perspective, we share our views on the functional aims, rationale, data requirements and challenges of nowcasting at different stages of an epidemic, drawing on the ongoing COVID-19 experience. We highlight how recent advances in the computational and laboratory sciences could be harnessed to complement traditional approaches to enhance the scope, timeliness, reliability and utility of epidemic nowcasting.

Influenza viruses have caused disease outbreaks in human societies for a long time. Influenza often has rapid onset and relatively short duration, both in the individual and in the population. The case fatality rate varies for different strains of the virus, as do the effects on total mortality. Outbreaks related to coronavirus infections have recently become a global concern but much less is known about the dynamics of these outbreaks and their effects on mortality. In this work, disease outbreaks in Sweden, in the time period of 1860-2020, are characterized and compared to the currently ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. The focus is on outbreaks with a sharp increase in all-cause mortality. Outbreak onset is defined as the time point when death counts start to increase consistently for a period of at least 10 days. The duration of the outbreak is defined as the time period in which mortality rates are elevated. Excess mortality is estimated by standard methods. In total there were 15 outbreaks detected in the time period, the first 14 were likely caused by influenza virus infections, the last by SARS-CoV-2. The mortality dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is shown to be similar to outbreaks due to influenza virus, and in terms of the number of excess deaths, it is the worst outbreak in Sweden since the "Spanish flu" of 1918-1919., Competing Interests: The author declares that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Ledberg.)

The current COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the unprecedented development and integration of infectious disease dynamic transmission models into policy making and public health practice. Models offer a systematic way to investigate transmission dynamics and produce short-term and long-term predictions that explicitly integrate assumptions about biological, behavioural, and epidemiological processes that affect disease transmission, burden, and surveillance. Models have been valuable tools during the COVID-19 pandemic and other infectious disease outbreaks, able to generate possible trajectories of disease burden, evaluate the effectiveness of intervention strategies, and estimate key transmission variables. Particularly given the rapid pace of model development, evaluation, and integration with decision making in emergency situations, it is necessary to understand the benefits and pitfalls of transmission models. We review and highlight key aspects of the history of infectious disease dynamic models, the role of rigorous testing and evaluation, the integration with data, and the successful application of models to guide public health. Rather than being an expansive history of infectious disease models, this Review focuses on how the integration of modelling can continue to be advanced through policy and practice in appropriate and conscientious ways to support the current pandemic response., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged as a global epidemic in 2015-2016 from Latin America with its true geographical extent remaining unclear due to widely presumed underreporting. The identification of locations with potential and unknown spread of ZIKV is a key yet understudied component for outbreak preparedness. Here, we aim to identify locations at a high risk of cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016 to further the understanding of the global ZIKV epidemiology, which is critical for the mitigation of the risk of future epidemics., Methods: We developed an importation simulation model to estimate the weekly number of ZIKV infections imported in each susceptible spatial unit (i.e. location that did not report any autochthonous Zika cases during 2015-2016), integrating epidemiological, demographic, and travel data as model inputs. Thereafter, a global risk model was applied to estimate the weekly ZIKV transmissibility during 2015-2016 for each location. Finally, we assessed the risk of onward ZIKV spread following importation in each susceptible spatial unit to identify locations with a high potential for cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016., Results: We have found 24 susceptible spatial units that were likely to have experienced cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016, of which 10 continue to have a high risk estimate within a highly conservative scenario, namely, Luanda in Angola, Banten in Indonesia, Maharashtra in India, Lagos in Nigeria, Taiwan and Guangdong in China, Dakar in Senegal, Maputo in Mozambique, Kinshasa in Congo DRC, and Pool in Congo. Notably, among the 24 susceptible spatial units identified, some have reported their first ZIKV outbreaks since 2017, thus adding to the credibility of our results (derived using 2015-2016 data only)., Conclusion: Our study has provided valuable insights into the potentially high-risk locations for cryptic ZIKV circulation during the 2015-2016 pandemic and has also laid a foundation for future studies that attempt to further narrow this key knowledge gap. Our modelling framework can be adapted to identify areas with likely unknown spread of other emerging vector-borne diseases, which has important implications for public health readiness especially in resource-limited settings.

Background: Cholera epidemics continue to challenge disease control, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected states. Rapid detection and response to small cholera clusters is key for efficient control before an epidemic propagates. To understand the capacity for early response in fragile states, we investigated delays in outbreak detection, investigation, response, and laboratory confirmation, and we estimated epidemic sizes. We assessed predictors of delays, and annual changes in response time., Methods: We compiled a list of cholera outbreaks in fragile and conflict-affected states from 2008 to 2019. We searched for peer-reviewed articles and epidemiological reports. We evaluated delays from the dates of symptom onset of the primary case, and the earliest dates of outbreak detection, investigation, response, and confirmation. Information on how the outbreak was alerted was summarized. A branching process model was used to estimate epidemic size at each delay. Regression models were used to investigate the association between predictors and delays to response., Results: Seventy-six outbreaks from 34 countries were included. Median delays spanned 1-2 weeks: from symptom onset of the primary case to presentation at the health facility (5 days, IQR 5-5), detection (5 days, IQR 5-6), investigation (7 days, IQR 5.8-13.3), response (10 days, IQR 7-18), and confirmation (11 days, IQR 7-16). In the model simulation, the median delay to response (10 days) with 3 seed cases led to a median epidemic size of 12 cases (upper range, 47) and 8% of outbreaks ≥ 20 cases (increasing to 32% with a 30-day delay to response). Increased outbreak size at detection (10 seed cases) and a 10-day median delay to response resulted in an epidemic size of 34 cases (upper range 67 cases) and < 1% of outbreaks < 20 cases. We estimated an annual global decrease in delay to response of 5.2% (95% CI 0.5-9.6, p = 0.03). Outbreaks signaled by immediate alerts were associated with a reduction in delay to response of 39.3% (95% CI 5.7-61.0, p = 0.03)., Conclusions: From 2008 to 2019, median delays from symptom onset of the primary case to case presentation and to response were 5 days and 10 days, respectively. Our model simulations suggest that depending on the outbreak size (3 versus 10 seed cases), in 8 to 99% of scenarios, a 10-day delay to response would result in large clusters that would be difficult to contain. Improving the delay to response involves rethinking the integration at local levels of event-based detection, rapid diagnostic testing for cluster validation, and integrated alert, investigation, and response.

Prevention of re-establishment (POR) refers to the prevention of malaria outbreak/epidemic occurrence or preventing re-establishment of indigenous malaria in a malaria-free country. Understanding the effectiveness of the various strategies used for POR is, therefore, of vital importance to countries certified as "malaria-free" or to the countries to be thus certified in the near future. This review is based on extensive review of literature on both the POR strategies and elimination schemes of countries, (i) that have reached malaria-free status (e.g. Armenia, Mauritius, Sri Lanka), (ii) those that are reaching pre-elimination stage (e.g. South Korea), and (iii) countries at the control phase (e.g. India). History has clearly shown that poorly implemented POR programmes can result in deadly consequences (e.g. Sri Lanka); conversely, there are examples of robust POR programmes that have sustained malaria free status that can serve as examples to countries working toward elimination. Countries awaiting malaria elimination status should pre-plan their POR strategies. Malaria-free countries face the risk of resurgence mostly due to imported malaria cases; thus, a robust passenger screening programme and cross border collaborations are crucial in a POR setting. In addition, sustained vigilance, and continued funding for the national anti-malarial campaign programme and for related research is of vital importance for POR. With distinct intrinsic potential for malaria in each country, tailor-made POR programmes are built through continuous and robust epidemiological and entomological surveillance, particularly in countries such as Sri Lanka with increased receptivity and vulnerability for malaria transmission. In summary, across all five countries under scrutiny, common strengths of the POR programmes are (i) a multipronged approach, (ii) strong passive, active, and activated passive case detection, (iii) Indoor residual spraying (IRS), and (iv) health education/awareness programmes.

Objectives: Depicting past epidemics currently relies on DNA-based detection of pathogens, an approach limited to pathogens with well-preserved DNA sequences. We used paleoserology as a complementary approach detecting specific antibodies under a mini line-blot format including positive and negative control antigens., Methods: Mini line blot assay incorporated skim milk as negative control, Staphylococcus aureus as positive control, and antigens prepared from lice-borne pathogens Rickettsia prowazekii, Borrelia recurrentis, Bartonella quintana, and Yersinia pestis. Paleoserums were extracted from rehydrated dental pulp recovered from buried individuals. Mini line blots observed with the naked eye, were quantified using a scanner and appropriate software. Paleoserology was applied to the indirect detection of lice-borne pathogens in seven skeletons exhumed from a 16th-17th century suspected military burial site (Auxi-le-Château); and 14 civils exhumed from a 5th-13th century burial site (Saint-Mont). Direct detection of pathogens was performed using quantitative real-time PCR., Results: In Auxi-le-Château, paleoserology yielded 7/7 interpretable paleoserums including 7/7 positives for B. recurrentis including one also positive for B. quintana. In Saint-Mont, paleoserology yielded 8/14 interpretable paleoserums and none reacted against any of the four pathogens. Antibodies against R. prowazekii and Y. pestis were not detected. The seroprevalence was significantly higher in the military burial site of Auxi-le-Château than in the civil burial site of Saint-Mont. Real-time PCR detection of B. quintana yielded 5/21 positive (3 at Saint-Mont and 2 at Auxi-le-Château) whereas B. recurrentis was not detected., Conclusions: Paleoserology unmasked an outbreak of relapsing B. recurrentis fever in one 16th - 17th century military garrison, missed by real-time PCR. Paleoserology offers a new tool for investigating past epidemics, in complement to DNA sequence-based approaches., (© 2020 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

The plague, an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is widely considered to be responsible for the most devastating and deadly pandemics in human history. Starting with the infamous Black Death, plague outbreaks are estimated to have killed around 100 million people over multiple centuries, with local mortality rates as high as 60%. However, detailed pictures of the disease dynamics of these outbreaks centuries ago remain scarce, mainly due to the lack of high-quality historical data in digital form. Here, we present an analysis of the 1630-1631 plague outbreak in the city of Venice, using newly collected daily death records. We identify the presence of a two-peak pattern, for which we present two possible explanations based on computational models of disease dynamics. Systematically digitized historical records like the ones presented here promise to enrich our understanding of historical phenomena of enduring importance. This work contributes to the recently renewed interdisciplinary foray into the epidemiological and societal impact of pre-modern epidemics.

Italy is fighting against one of the worst medical emergency since the 1918 Spanish Flu. Pressure on the hospitals is tremendous. As for official data on March 14th: 8372 admitted in hospitals, 1518 in intensive care units, 1441 deaths (175 more than the day before). Unfortunately, hospitals are not prepared: even where a plan for massive influx of patients is present, it usually focuses on sudden onset disaster trauma victims (the most probable case scenario), and it has not been tested, validated, or propagated to the staff. Despite this, the All Hazards Approach for management of major incidents and disasters is still valid and the "4S" theory (staff, stuff, structure, systems) for surge capacity can be guidance to respond to this disaster.

Today's COVID-19 pandemic offers many similarities with previous pandemics hitting our country. In particular, the smallpox epidemics during the 1700s threatened the lives of multitudes and created panic and fear in the society, similar to the situation caused by the coronavirus. Remedies that were instituted, especially inoculations, were met with opposition and even violence when first introduced. The newspapers were filled with headlines reflecting the disputes. There was a "six feet rule" during the smallpox epidemics, although it had a different meaning than today. Politicians and other leaders of the society were engaged in the war against the infection. Boston became involved in the fight against the smallpox by Dr. Zabdiel Boylston's and Rev. Cotton Mather's introduction of inoculations. When George Washington realized the benefits of the procedure and ordered mass inoculations of the Continental Army, it became an important factor in winning not only the fight against smallpox but the Revolutionary War as well. Looking back at history, realizing that we have survived previous outbreaks of devastating diseases, can provide hope during the current pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a mismatch in all health systems. Most countries had forgotten how to behave in the face of such an epidemic without adequate resources. We need to take stock of everything that has happened, instruct the population and generate a new knowledge that allows us to face new epidemics., (Copyright © 2020 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

In a time of unprecedented and rapid change, what are the roles of librarians and archivists in documenting the course of a pandemic?, (Copyright © 2020 Stephen J. Greenberg.)

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis infection, continues to threaten low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. The complex interactions between rodents and fleas with their respective environments challenge our understanding of human plague epidemiology. Historical long-term datasets of reported plague cases offer a unique opportunity to elucidate the effects of climate on plague outbreaks in detail. Here, we analyse monthly plague deaths and climate data from 25 provinces in British India from 1898 to 1949 to generate insights into the influence of temperature, rainfall and humidity on the occurrence, severity and timing of plague outbreaks. We find that moderate relative humidity levels of between 60% and 80% were strongly associated with outbreaks. Using wavelet analysis, we determine that the nationwide spread of plague was driven by changes in humidity, where, on average, a one-month delay in the onset of rising humidity translated into a one-month delay in the timing of plague outbreaks. This work can inform modern spatio-temporal predictive models for the disease and aid in the development of early-warning strategies for the deployment of prophylactic treatments and other control measures.

One of the historical periods of Iran that can be studied for contagious diseases and how they spread, is the late Qajar period. The city of Mashhad, after Tehran and Tabriz, had a special place among Russian and English governments in the Qajar period as one of the significant religious, political and economic centers in Iran due to Imam Reza's holy shrine, a large population and great geographical scale. The central governments' incompetence in preventing the outbreak of contagious diseases and lack of essential amenities, caused many lives to be lost all over Iran and especially Mashhad during the Qajar period. Hence, the neighbor governments such as Russia, ordered for quarantines to be set up at the borders and dispatched doctors to stop diseases' from reaching Russian lands. However, these attempts did not prevent the deaths of people in the border areas, especially in Mashhad, from diseases such as cholera, plague, smallpox, typhus, flu and other diseases. In this study, we investigate and explain the subjects: disease outbreaks, the problem of commerce, quarantine and its outcomes at the end of Qajar period, between the years 1892 and 1921 AD in Mashhad, with the help of historical and documentary sources using an analytical and medical historiography method., (© 2020 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.)

In 1967, several workers involved in poliomyelitis vaccine development and production fell ill at three different locations in Europe with a severe and often lethal novel disease associated with grivets ( Chlorocebus aethiops ) imported from Uganda. This disease was named Marburg virus disease (MVD) after the West German town of Marburg an der Lahn, where most human infections and deaths had been recorded. Consequently, the Marburg episode received the most scientific and media attention. Cases that occurred in Frankfurt am Main, West Germany, were also described in commonly accessible scientific literature, although they were less frequently cited than those pertaining to the Marburg infections. However, two infections occurring in a third location, in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, have seemingly been all but forgotten. Due in part to their absence in commonly used databases and in part to the fact that they were written in languages other than English, the important articles describing this part of the outbreak are very rarely cited. Here, we summarize this literature and correct published inaccuracies to remind a younger generation of scientists focusing on Marburg virus and its closest filoviral relatives of this important historical context. Importantly, and unfortunately, the three episodes of infection of 1967 still represent the best in-depth clinical look at MVD in general and in the context of "modern" medicine (fully resourced versus less-resourced capacity) in particular. Hence, each individual case of these episodes holds crucial information for health care providers who may be confronted with MVD today., (Copyright © 2020 American Society for Microbiology.)

The ancient technique of variolation (inoculation of the smallpox) which was introduced in the United States in 1721 was replaced by vaccination (inoculation of the cowpox) soon after the procedure was published by Edward Jenner in 1798. Benjamin Waterhouse is recognized as the introducer of smallpox vaccination in the United States having conducted the first vaccination in Boston on 8 July 1800, although other American physicians also played an important role in extending vaccination in the East Coast of the United States. A different route of introduction brought the smallpox vaccine from Mexico to New Mexico (March 1805) and Texas (April 1806) which at that time where part of the Viceroyalty of New Spain. The vaccine was brought to California in 1817 by Russian merchants who obtained it in Peru, where the vaccine had arrived in 1806 with the Spanish Philanthropic Expedition of the Vaccine. It took almost 150 years of vaccination efforts before the last natural outbreak of smallpox occurred in the United States in 1949., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)