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We study the rate of convergence w.r.t. a Wasserstein type distance for random walk approximation of mean field BSDEs. This article continuous [Briand et al., Donsker-Type Theorem For BSDEs: Rate of Convergence, Bernoulli, 2021], where the rate of convergence of a Donsker-type theorem for standard BSDEs is studied.

This work addresses stochastic optimal control problems where the unknown state evolves in continuous time while partial, noisy, and possibly controllable measurements are only available in discrete time. We develop a framework for controlling such systems, focusing on the measure-valued process of the system's state and the control actions that depend on noisy and incomplete data. Our approach uses a stochastic optimal control framework with a probability measure-valued state, which accommodates noisy measurements and integrates them into control decisions through a Bayesian update mechanism. We characterize the control optimality in terms of a sequence of interlaced Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equations coupled with controlled impulse steps at the measurement times. For the case of Gaussian-controlled processes, we derive an equivalent HJB equation whose state variable is finite-dimensional, namely the state's mean and covariance. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods through numerical examples. These include control under perfect observations, control under no observations, and control under noisy observations. Our numerical results highlight significant differences in the control strategies and their performance, emphasizing the challenges and computational demands of dealing with uncertainty in state observation.

In this article we show that the asymptotic outcomes of both shallow and deep neural networks such as those used in BloombergGPT to generate economic time series are exactly the Nash equilibria of a non-potential game. We then design and analyze deep neural network algorithms that converge to these equilibria. The methodology is extended to federated deep neural networks between clusters of regional servers and on-device clients. Finally, the variational inequalities behind large language models including encoder-decoder related transformers are established., Comment: Updated version 1. 24 pages. Accepted and to appear in: International Econometric Conference of Vietnam

In this paper, we present an approach to neural network mean-field-type control and its stochastic stability analysis by means of adversarial inputs (aka adversarial attacks). This is a class of data-driven mean-field-type control where the distribution of the variables such as the system states and control inputs are incorporated into the problem. Besides, we present a methodology to validate the feasibility of the approximations of the solutions via neural networks and evaluate their stability. Moreover, we enhance the stability by enlarging the training set with adversarial inputs to obtain a more robust neural network. Finally, a worked-out example based on the linear-quadratic mean-field type control problem (LQ-MTC) is presented to illustrate our methodology.

We provide a characterization of an optimal stopping time for a class of finite horizon time-inconsistent optimal stopping problems (OSPs) of mean-field type, adapted to the Brownian filtration, including those related to mean-field diffusion processes and recursive utility functions. Despite the time-inconsistency of the OSP, we show that it is optimal to stop when the value-process hits the reward process for the first time, as is the case for the standard time-consistent OSP. We solve the problem by approximating the corresponding value-process with a sequence of Snell envelopes of processes, for which a sequence of optimal stopping times is constituted of the hitting times of each of the reward processes by the associated value-process. Then, under mild assumptions, we show that this sequence of hitting times converges in probability to the hitting time for the mean-field OSP and that the limit is optimal., Comment: Further comments and details have been added, and some misprints have been corrected

We introduce a zero-sum game problem of mean-field type as an extension of the classical zero-sum Dynkin game problem to the case where the payoff processes might depend on the value of the game and its probability law. We establish sufficient conditions under which such a game admits a value and a saddle point. Furthermore, we provide a characterization of the value of the game in terms of a specific class of doubly reflected backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) of mean-field type, for which we derive an existence and uniqueness result. We then introduce a corresponding system of weakly interacting zero-sum Dynkin games and show its well-posedness. Finally, we provide a propagation of chaos result for the value of the zero-sum mean-field Dynkin game., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2111.14315

The aim of this paper is to address two related estimation problems arising in the setup of hidden state linear time invariant (LTI) state space systems when the dimension of the hidden state is unknown. Namely, the estimation of any finite number of the system's Markov parameters and the estimation of a minimal realization for the system, both from the partial observation of a single trajectory. For both problems, we provide statistical guarantees in the form of various estimation error upper bounds, $\rank$ recovery conditions, and sample complexity estimates. Specifically, we first show that the low $\rank$ solution of the Hankel penalized least square estimator satisfies an estimation error in $S_p$-norms for $p \in [1,2]$ that captures the effect of the system order better than the existing operator norm upper bound for the simple least square. We then provide a stability analysis for an estimation procedure based on a variant of the Ho-Kalman algorithm that improves both the dependence on the dimension and the least singular value of the Hankel matrix of the Markov parameters. Finally, we propose an estimation algorithm for the minimal realization that uses both the Hankel penalized least square estimator and the Ho-Kalman based estimation procedure and guarantees with high probability that we recover the correct order of the system and satisfies a new fast rate in the $S_2$-norm with a polynomial reduction in the dependence on the dimension and other parameters of the problem., Comment: 47 pages

In this article, we establish a propagation of chaos result for weakly interacting nonlinear Snell envelopes which converge to a class of mean-field reflected backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) with jumps and right-continuous and left-limited obstacle, where the mean-field interaction in terms of the distribution of the $Y$-component of the solution enters both the driver and the lower obstacle. Under mild Lipschitz and integrability conditions on the coefficients, we prove existence and uniqueness of the solution to both the mean-field reflected BSDEs with jumps and the corresponding system of weakly interacting particles and provide a propagation of chaos result for the whole solution $(Y,Z,U,K)$, which requires new technical results due to the dependence of the obstacle on the solution and the presence of jumps., Comment: 33 pages

We study the estimation problem for linear time-invariant (LTI) state-space models with Gaussian excitation of an unknown covariance. We provide non asymptotic lower bounds for the expected estimation error and the mean square estimation risk of the least square estimator, and the minimax mean square estimation risk. These bounds are sharp with explicit constants when the matrix of the dynamics has no eigenvalues on the unit circle and are rate-optimal when they do. Our results extend and improve existing lower bounds to lower bounds in expectation of the mean square estimation risk and to systems with a general noise covariance. Instrumental to our derivation are new concentration results for rescaled sample covariances and deviation results for the corresponding multiplication processes of the covariates, a differential geometric construction of a prior on the unit operator ball of small Fisher information, and an extension of the Cram\'er-Rao and van Treesinequalities to matrix-valued estimators., Comment: 41 pages

We propose a hybrid classical-quantum approach for modeling transition probabilities in health and disability insurance. The modeling of logistic disability inception probabilities is formulated as a support vector regression problem. Using a quantum feature map, the data is mapped to quantum states belonging to a quantum feature space, where the associated kernel is determined by the inner product between the quantum states. This quantum kernel can be efficiently estimated on a quantum computer. We conduct experiments on the IBM Yorktown quantum computer, fitting the model to disability inception data from a Swedish insurance company.

We consider the life-cycle optimal portfolio choice problem faced by an agent receiving labor income and allocating her wealth to risky assets and a riskless bond subject to a borrowing constraint. In this paper, to reflect a realistic economic setting, we propose a model where the dynamics of the labor income has two main features. First, labor income adjust slowly to financial market shocks, a feature already considered in Biffis, E., Gozzi, F. and Prosdocimi, C. (2020) - "Optimal portfolio choice with path dependent labor income: the infinite horizon case". Second, the labor income $y_i$ of an agent $i$ is benchmarked against the labor incomes of a population $y^n:=(y_1,y_2,\ldots,y_n)$ of $n$ agents with comparable tasks and/or ranks. This last feature has not been considered yet in the literature and is faced taking the limit when $n\to +\infty$ so that the problem falls into the family of optimal control of infinite dimensional McKean-Vlasov Dynamics, which is a completely new and challenging research field. We study the problem in a simplified case where, adding a suitable new variable, we are able to find explicitly the solution of the associated HJB equation and find the optimal feedback controls., Comment: 34 pages

We study solutions of a class of one-dimensional continuous reflected backward stochastic Volterra integral equations driven by Brownian motion, where the reflection keeps the solution above a given stochastic process (lower obstacle). We prove existence and uniqueness by a fixed point argument and we derive a comparison result. Moreover, we show how the solution of our problem is related to a time-inconsistent optimal stopping problem and derive an optimal strategy., Comment: 17 pages

We consider a finite impulse response system with centered independent sub-Gaussian design covariates and noise components that are not necessarily identically distributed. We derive non-asymptotic near-optimal estimation and prediction bounds for the least-squares estimator of the parameters. Our results are based on two concentration inequalities on the norm of sums of dependent covariate vectors and on the singular values of their covariance operator that are of independent value on their own and where the dependence arises from the time shift structure of the time series. These results generalize the known bounds for the independent case., Comment: 23 pages

In this paper, we study a class of reflected backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) of mean-field type, where the mean-field interaction in terms of the distribution of the $Y$-component of the solution enters in both the driver and the lower obstacle. We consider in details the case where the lower obstacle is a deterministic function of $(Y,\E[Y])$ and discuss the more general dependence on the distribution of $Y$. Under mild Lipschitz and integrability conditions on the coefficients, we obtain the well-posedness of such a class of equations. Under further monotonicity conditions, we show convergence of the standard penalization scheme to the solution of the equation, which hence satisfies a minimality property. This class of equations is motivated by applications in pricing life insurance contracts with surrender options.

Life insurance cash flows become reserve dependent when contract conditions are modified during the contract term on condition that actuarial equivalence is maintained. As a result, insurance cash flows and prospective reserves depend on each other in a circular way, and it is a non-trivial problem to solve that circularity and make cash flows and prospective reserves well-defined. In Markovian models, the (stochastic) Thiele equation and the Cantelli Theorem are the standard tools for solving the circularity issue and for maintaining actuarial equivalence. This paper expands the stochastic Thiele equation and the Cantelli Theorem to non-Markovian frameworks and presents a recursive scheme for the calculation of multiple contract modifications.

This paper introduces a system of stochastic differential equations (SDE) of mean-field type that models pedestrian motion. The system lets the pedestrians spend time at, and move along, walls, by means of sticky boundaries and boundary diffusion. As an alternative to Neumann-type boundary conditions, sticky boundaries and boundary diffusion have a 'smoothing' effect on pedestrian motion. When these effects are active, the pedestrian paths are semimartingales with first-variation part absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure $dt$, rather than an increasing processes (which in general induces a measure singular with respect to $dt$) as is the case under Neumann boundary conditions. We show that the proposed mean-field model for pedestrian motion admits a unique weak solution and that it is possible to control the system in the weak sense, using a Pontryagin-type maximum principle. We also relate the mean-field type control problem to the social cost minimization in an interacting particle system. We study the novel model features numerically and we confirm empirical findings on pedestrian crowd motion in congested corridors., Comment: 27 pages, 2 figures

In this paper, the credit scoring problem is studied by incorporating networked information, where the advantages of such incorporation are investigated theoretically in two scenarios. Firstly, a Bayesian optimal filter is proposed to provide risk prediction for lenders assuming that published credit scores are estimated merely from structured financial data. Such prediction can then be used as a monitoring indicator for the risk management in lenders' future decisions. Secondly, a recursive Bayes estimator is further proposed to improve the precision of credit scoring by incorporating the dynamic interaction topology of clients. It is shown that under the proposed evolution framework, the designed estimator has a higher precision than any efficient estimator, and the mean square errors are strictly smaller than the Cram\'er-Rao lower bound for clients within a certain range of scores. Finally, simulation results for a special case illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithms., Comment: 19 pages, simulations and discussion added, motivation clarified, references updated

We study a class of infinite horizon impulse control problems with execution delay when the dynamics of the system is described by a general adapted stochastic process. The problem is solved by means of probabilistic tools relying on the notion of Snell envelope and infinite horizon reflected backward stochastic differential equations. This allows us to establish the existence of an optimal strategy over all admissible strategies., Comment: 29 pages

We study a general class of fully coupled backward-forward stochastic differential equations of mean-field type (MF-BFSDE). We derive existence and uniqueness results for such a system under weak monotonicity assumptions and without the non-degeneracy condition on the forward equation. This is achieved by suggesting an implicit approximation scheme that is shown to converge to the solution of the system of MF-BFSDE. We apply these results to derive an explicit form of open-loop Nash equilibrium strategies for nonzero sum mean-field linear-quadratic stochastic differential games with random coefficients. These strategies are valid for any time horizon of the game., Comment: 22 pages

We consider an infinite horizon control problem for dynamics constrained to remain on a multidimensional junction with entry costs. We derive the associated system of Hamilton-Jacobi equations (HJ), prove the comparison principle and that the value function of the optimal control problem is the unique viscosity solution of the HJ system. This is done under the usual strong controllability assumption and also under a weaker condition, coined 'moderate controllability assumption'.

This paper suggests a model for the motion of tagged pedestrians: pedestrians moving towards a specified targeted destination, which they are forced to reach. It aims to be a decision-making tool for the positioning of fire fighters, security personnel, and other services in a pedestrian environment. Taking interaction with the surrounding crowd into account leads to a differential nonzero-sum game model where the tagged pedestrians compete with the surrounding crowd of ordinary pedestrians. When deciding how to act, pedestrians consider crowd distribution-dependent effects, like congestion and crowd aversion. Including such effects in the parameters of the game, makes it a mean-field type game. The equilibrium control is characterized, and special cases are discussed. Behavior in the model is studied by numerical simulations.

We establish existence of controlled Markov chain of mean-field type with unbounded jump intensities by means of a fixed point argument using the Wasserstein distance. Using a Markov chain entropic backward SDE approach, we further suggest conditions for existence of an optimal control and a saddle-point for respectively a control problem and a zero-sum differential game associated with risk sensitive payoff functionals of mean-field type., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1606.04244

We consider the stochastic target problem of finding the collection of initial laws of a mean-field stochastic differential equation such that we can control its evolution to ensure that it reaches a prescribed set of terminal probability distributions, at a fixed time horizon. Here, laws are considered conditionally to the path of the Brownian motion that drives the system. We establish a version of the geometric dynamic programming principle for the associated reachability sets and prove that the corresponding value function is a viscosity solution of a geometric partial differential equation. This provides a characterization of the initial masses that can be almost-surely transported towards a given target, along the paths of a stochastic differential equation. Our results extend [16] to our setting.

We study risk-sensitive optimal control of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) of mean-field type, where the coefficients are allowed to depend on some functional of the law as well as the state and control processes. Moreover the risk-sensitive cost functional is also of mean-field type. We derive optimality equations in infinite dimensions connecting dual functions associated with Bellman functional to the adjoint process of the Pontryagin maximum principle. The case of linear-exponentiated quadratic cost and its connection with the risk-neutral solution is discussed., Comment: 14 pages

We extend the class of pedestrian crowd models introduced by Lachapelle and Wolfram (2011) to allow for nonlocal crowd aversion and arbitrarily but finitely many interacting crowds. The new crowd aversion feature grants pedestrians a "personal space" where crowding is undesirable. We derive the model from a particle picture and treat it as a mean-field type game. Solutions to the mean-field type game are characterized via a Pontryagin-type Maximum Principle. The behavior of pedestrians acting under nonlocal crowd aversion is illustrated by a numerical simulation., Comment: 25 pages, 4 figures

This paper considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a specific collection of Markovian jump processes used for e.g. modelling of credit risk. Previous attempts at designing importance sampling algorithms have resulted in poor performance and the main contribution of the paper is the design of efficient importance sampling algorithms using subsolutions. The dynamics of the jump processes causes the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi equations to have an intricate state-dependence, which makes the design of efficient algorithms difficult. We provide theoretical results that quantify the performance of importance sampling algorithms in general and construct asymptotically optimal algorithms for some examples. The computational gain compared to standard Monte Carlo is illustrated by numerical examples., Comment: 25 pages; to appear in ACM TOMACS

We establish existence of Markov chains of mean-field type with unbounded jump intensities by means of a fixed point argument using the Total Variation distance. We further show existence of nearly-optimal controls and, using a Markov chain backward SDE approach, we suggest conditions for existence of an optimal control and a saddle-point for respectively a control problem and a zero-sum differential game associated with payoff functionals of mean-field type, under dynamics driven by such Markov chains of mean-field type., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1603.06071

A mean-field-type game is a game in which the instantaneous payoffs and/or the state dynamics functions involve not only the state and the action profile but also the joint distributions of state-action pairs. This article presents some engineering applications of mean-field-type games including road traffic networks, multi-level building evacuation, millimeter wave wireless communications, distributed power networks, virus spread over networks, virtual machine resource management in cloud networks, synchronization of oscillators, energy-efficient buildings, online meeting and mobile crowdsensing., Comment: 84 pages, 24 figures, 183 references. to appear in AIMS 2017

We establish existence of nearly-optimal controls, conditions for existence of an optimal control and a saddle-point for respectively a control problem and zero-sum differential game associated with payoff functionals of mean-field type, under dynamics driven by weak solutions of stochastic differential equations of mean-field type., Comment: 20 pages

In this paper we study a generalization of the continuous time Principal-Agent problem allowing for time inconsistent utility functions, for instance of mean-variance type. Using recent results on the Pontryagin maximum principle for FBSDEs we suggest a method of characterizing optimal contracts for such models. To illustrate this we consider a fully solved explicit example in the linear quadratic setting., Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1410.6392

Point and interval estimation of future disability inception and recovery rates are predominantly carried out by combining generalized linear models (GLM) with time series forecasting techniques into a two-step method involving parameter estimation from historical data and subsequent calibration of a time series model. This approach may in fact lead to both conceptual and numerical problems since any time trend components of the model are incoherently treated as both model parameters and realizations of a stochastic process. We suggest that this general two-step approach can be improved in the following way: First, we assume a stochastic process form for the time trend component. The corresponding transition densities are then incorporated into the likelihood, and the model parameters are estimated using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. We illustrate the modelling procedure by fitting the model to Swedish disability claims data.

We establish a stochastic maximum principle (SMP) for control problems of partially observed diffusions of mean-field type with risk-sensitive performance functionals., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1404.1441

We formulate and solve a finite horizon full balance sheet two-modes optimal switching problem related to trade-off strategies between expected profit and cost yields. Given the current mode, this model allows for either a switch to the other mode or termination of the project, and this happens for both sides of the balance sheet. A novelty in this model is that the related obstacles are nonlinear in the underlying yields, whereas, they are linear in the standard optimal switching problem. The optimal switching problem is formulated in terms of a system of Snell envelopes for the profit and cost yields which act as obstacles to each other. We prove existence of a continuous minimal solution of this system using an approximation scheme and fully characterize the optimal switching strategy., Comment: 23 pages. To appear in Stochastics

We study a general class of Principal-Agent problems in continuous time under hidden action. By formulating the model as a coupled stochastic optimal control problem we are able to find a set of necessary conditions characterizing optimal contracts, using the stochastic maximum principle. An example is carried out to illustrate the proposed approach to the Principal-Agent problem under linear stochastic dynamics with a quadratic performance function., Comment: 28 pages, 2 figures. v2 is a rewrite with substatial improvement of Section 3

In this paper, we deal with the solutions of systems of PDEs with bilateral inter-connected obstacles of min-max and max-min types. These systems arise naturally in stochastic switching zero-sum game problems. We show that when the switching costs of one side are regular, the solutions of the min-max and max-min systems coincide. Then, this common viscosity solution is related to a multi-dimensional doubly reflected BSDE with bilateral interconnected obstacles. Finally, its relationship with the the values of a zero-sum switching game is studied.

In this paper a duality relation between the Ma\~{n}\'e potential and Mather's action functional is derived in the context of convex and state-dependent Hamiltonians. The duality relation is used to obtain min-max representations of viscosity solutions of first order Hamilton-Jacobi equations. These min-max representations naturally suggest class\-es of subsolutions of Hamilton-Jacobi equations that arise in the theory of large deviations. The subsolutions, in turn, are good candidates for designing efficient rare-event simulation algorithms.

This article examines mean-field games for marriage. The results support the argument that optimizing the long-term well-being through effort and social feeling state distribution (mean-field) will help to stabilize marriage. However, if the cost of effort is very high, the couple fluctuates in a bad feeling state or the marriage breaks down. We then examine the influence of society on a couple using mean field sentimental games. We show that, in mean-field equilibrium, the optimal effort is always higher than the one-shot optimal effort. We illustrate numerically the influence of the couple's network on their feeling states and their well-being., Comment: 22 figures. Accepted and to appear in PLoS One

In this paper we study mean-field type control problems with risk-sensitive performance functionals. We establish a stochastic maximum principle (SMP) for optimal control of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of mean-field type, in which the drift and the diffusion coefficients as well as the performance functional depend not only on the state and the control but also on the mean of the distribution of the state. Our result extends the risk-sensitive SMP (without mean-field coupling) of Lim and Zhou (2005), derived for feedback (or Markov) type optimal controls, to optimal control problems for non-Markovian dynamics which may be time-inconsistent in the sense that the Bellman optimality principle does not hold. In our approach to the risk-sensitive SMP, the smoothness assumption on the value-function imposed in Lim and Zhou (2005) need not to be satisfied. For a general action space a Peng's type SMP is derived, specifying the necessary conditions for optimality. Two examples are carried out to illustrate the proposed risk-sensitive mean-field type SMP under linear stochastic dynamics with exponential quadratic cost function. Explicit solutions are given for both mean-field free and mean-field models., Comment: 20 pages, 2 figures

We study a class of dynamic decision problems of mean field type with time inconsistent cost functionals, and derive a stochastic maximum principle to characterize subgame perfect Nash equilibrium points. Subsequently, this approach is extended to a mean field game to construct decentralized strategies and obtain an estimate of their performance., Comment: 28 pages

We consider a large, homogeneous portfolio of life or disability annuity policies. The policies are assumed to be independent conditional on an external stochastic process representing the economic-demographic environment. Using a conditional law of large numbers, we establish the connection between claims reserving and risk aggregation for large portfolios. Further, we derive a partial differential equation for moments of present values. Moreover, we show how statistical multi-factor intensity models can be approximated by one-factor models, which allows for solving the PDEs very efficiently. Finally, we give a numerical example where moments of present values of disability annuities are computed using finite difference methods and Monte Carlo simulations.