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In the article, the possibilities of using neural networks constructed on neurons with an activation function based on the Bayes' theorem for intelligent processing of measurement results are discussed. In the authoring Bayesian model of a neuron, the weight vector is used as a reference pattern, the input signals of the neuron are interpreted as evidence in favor of two alternative hypotheses: compliance and noncompliance with the condition of the neuron activation. The output signal of the neuron is formed on the basis of the posterior probability distribution of hypotheses calculated using the Bayes' rule. The ability of the Bayesian neuron to recognize fuzzy graphic images covered with a raster grid is shown. An illustrative example of processing the results of measuring the surface temperature of the mechanism in order to detect potential malfunctions in places of overheating is given.

This study explores the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and their main determinants, which include real income and energy consumption in Russia, employing data for the period 1990-2016. The hypothesis of financial development being an important determinant of environmental quality in Russia is also tested. For estimating the short-run and long-run relationships the ARDL bounds test approach is employed in this study. The results are consistent with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and show that the real income and energy consumption have a statistically significant positive impact on the carbon emission and its square has a significant negative effect on the carbon emissions both in the short-run and long-run. Financial sector is found to be significant determinant of carbon emission in Russia as well. The pairwise Granger causality test also reveals unidirectional causality running from financial development to the carbon emissions.Keywords: financial development, environmental Kuznets Curve, pollution, ARDL bounds test, carbon emissionJEL Classifications: 016, 044, Q43DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7505

In this paper we explore the unit root properties of crude oil production for 15 sampled countries employing the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) panel unit root test with (and without) one structural break for the period 1990-2017. In case of applying LM univariate test without a structural break, the results are ambiguous and inconclusive with moderate support for stationarity. The results of LM panel unit root test with a structural break are significant and conclusive, stating that for a sampled panel, crude oil production is stationary.Keywords: crude oil, oil shock, unit root, panel analysis, Lagrange multiplierJEL Classifications: C23, E23, Q43DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7121

The article presents programs that implement original approaches to group expert rating estimation and fuzzy inference. They implement probabilistic models based on Bayes’ Formula, previously proposed and published in the works of the authors. In these models, the estimated input data are interpreted as evidence in favor of one or another hypothesis from the set of possible ones, determined by the specifics of the model. All the evidence obtained is, in one way or another, transformed into a set of Bayesian conditional probabilities calculated under the assumption that the corresponding hypothesis is true, and the posterior probability distribution on the set of these hypotheses is used as the output. This distribution is used either directly as a result for decision making, or as a basis for calculating the final result. The features of the software implementation of models on the Java platform are discussed, the advantages of the models, confirmed or identified in the process of software implementation, are noted. The developed programs have a convenient graphical user interface and can be used as decision-making support tools to solve applied problems in the field of expert rating estimation and fuzzy inference.

In this article we test the hypothesis about the impact of oil prices shocks on the unemployment and crime rate on the example of oil-exporting country. According to the hypothesis, there exist a dependence of the labor market on oil revenue. A negative oil price shock should lead to a decrease in the employment rate, which in turn should lead to a rise in illegal forms of behavior. Illegal behavior is measured as an average of registered crimes (bribery and drug dealing). Based on data for 1990-2017 we study a case of Russia, using vector error correction model for detecting short- and long-term effects. Results show that oil prices and unemployment affect crime rate in the long-run in a case of oil-exporting country. Yet, in the short-run both negative oil shocks and a rise in unemployment rate lead to a statistically significant increase in bribery and drug dealing. A 1% decrease in oil price will lead to a 1,14% rise in bribery and drug dealing and a 1% increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 2,72% increase in drug dealing and bribery.Keywords: oil prices, unemployment, crime rate, bribery, vector error correction approach.JEL Classifications: Q41, E24, F43, K42DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.6833

In this paper we investigate the long- and short-run effects of economic growth and Internet usage on electricity consumption using a panel data for countries – members of Commonwealth of Independent States for the period 1991-2017. The study is based on panel unit root test, panel cointegration test, the pooled mean group regression technique and Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel Granger causality test. The results show that Internet usage affects electricity consumption in the long-run. A 1% increase in the number of the Internet users per 100 people increases electricity consumption per capita by 0.021% in the sampled countries Economic growth affects electricity consumption both in the short- and long-run. A 1% increase in economic growth rate cause a 1.45% increase in electricity consumption per capita in CIS states. Results of panel causality test show that Internet usage and economic growth cause electricity consumption.Keywords: Electricity consumption, economic growth, internet usage, panel analysis, causalityJEL Classifications: L94, O4, Q4, Q42, O1

In this paper we investigate the casual relationship between energy consumption, trade openness, exchange rate and foreign direct investment in Union State of Russia and Belarus for the period from 1997 to 2017. To test the hypothesis and explain the possible casual relations we use the error correction approach. Result of the conducted research show that in the short run trade openness and exchange rate affect foreign direct investment in positive and significant manner. In the long run, energy consumption, trade openness and exchange rate positively affect foreign direct investment.Keywords: Foreign direct investment, energy consumption, trade openness, exchange rate, error correction model JEL Classifications: F21, F31, Q43

Seasonal anomalies play an important role in the global economic system. One of the most frequently empirically observed anomalies is the Halloween effect. Halloween effect describes the anomaly in the financial markets, which is that the returns of different assets in the summer period generally are lower than the returns in the winter period. This study tests the hypothesis of the existence of the Halloween effect on the energy markets over the period from 1985 to 2016. The sample includes series of prices for various energy resources. The econometric estimation showed that for a range of energy markets, returns during the summer period are higher than the returns in winter ones. The difference in returns is statistically significant, which speaks in favor the Halloween effect.Keywords: Halloween effect, financial market, energy market, bounded rationality, investor sentimentJEL Classifications: G15; G41; Q41, Q43.

Book review of Luis Suarez-Villa’s Corporate Power, Oligopolies and the Crisis of the State (20Book review of Luis Suarez-Villa’s Corporate Power, Oligopolies and the Crisis of the State (2015). State University of New York, ISBN: 978-1-4384-5485-6.15)

In this article, we set ourselves a task to test institutional memory hypothesis as a core of endogenous credit cycles. According to this hypothesis, risks taken by creditors depend largely on availability heuristic and experience of loan officers. To assess validity of this hypothesis we construct and estimate a simple VAR model. The data for this model is acquired from results of an experimental study (lasted for 70 rounds), the purpose of which is to identify behavioral patterns of participants while meeting demand for credit, specifics of subjectively weighted assessment of credit risk, based on shock approach. The results of the study allow confirming institutional memory hypothesis. After initial shock of bad debts, number of periods to recover willingness to accept risk has increased by 39%, which supports the hypothesis of availability heuristic’s influence. However, with improvement of loan portfolio’s quality, willingness to take risk is restoring. In addition, we managed to confirm existence of risk’s underestimation and overestimation periods in an experimental manner. Key words: Institutional memory hypothesis, Credit cycle, Availability heuristic, Credit risk, Bounded rationality. JEL: G02, E32, E51. Ponovo testiranje hipoteze institucionalnog pamcenja: Eksperimentalna studija U radu postavili smo zadatak da testiramo hipotezu o institucionalnom pamcenju kao jezgru endogenih kreditnih ciklusa. Prema ovoj hipotezi, rizici koje donatori preuzimaju u velikoj meri zavise od heuristicke dostupnosti i iskustva kreditnih službenika. Da bismo procenili validnost ove hipoteze, konstruisemo i ocenjujemo jednostavan VAR model. Podaci za ovaj model su nabavljeni iz rezultata eksperimentalne studije (koji je trajao 70 krugova), cija je svrha da se identifikuju obrasci ponasanja ucesnika u toku zadovoljenja potražnje za kreditom, specificnosti subjektivno ponderisane procene kreditnog rizika, zasnovane na pristupu koji se bazira na sokovima. Rezultati studije omogucavaju potvrđivanje hipoteze o institucionalnom pamcenju. Nakon inicijalnog soka zbog losih dugova, broj perioda za povracaj volje za prihvatanje rizika povecao se za 39%, sto podržava hipotezu o uticaju heuristicke raspoloživosti. Međutim, uz poboljsanje kvaliteta kreditnog portfolia, volja za uzimanje rizika je vracena. Pored toga, uspeli smo da potvrdimo postojanje potcenjivanja i precenjivanja rizika na ekperimentalni nacin. Kljucne reci: hipoteza institucionalnog pamcenja, kreditni ciklus, heuristicka raspoloživost, kreditni rizik, ogranicena racionalnost.

This article aims to explore the causal relationship between financial development, economic growth and renewable energy consumption on the example of Russia. Using data from 1990 to 2014, we build the vector error correction model to determine the nature of short-term and long-term relationships between the variables. To determine causality and its direction, we use the Granger causality test VEC in domain. The results of the VEC model show that the system of variables corrects its previous period disequilibrium at a speed 22,98% in one year. Based on the results of the Wald test, we find no statistically significant causality running from renewable energy consumption to either economic growth or financial development. The results of Granger causality test show that there is bi-directional causality between economic growth and financial development in Russia, while renewable energy consumption does not Granger cause economic growth or financial development. Although economic growth does Granger cause changes in renewable energy consumption.Keywords: renewable energy, economic growth, financial development, vector error correction modelJEL Classifications: D53, O40, Q42, Q43

In this article we test the hypothesis about the impact of oil prices shocks on the competition in the labor market on the example of oil-exporting country. According to the hypothesis of the study, positive (negative) oil price shock leads to an increase (fall) in the demand for labor, which, in turn, leads to growth (slowdown in growth) of wages adjusted for inflation given wages inelasticity in the short term. Based on data for 1990-2016 we study a case of Russia, using vector error correction model. In the result we come to conclusion that a positive oil price shock leads to an increase of the aggregate level of wages in the economy and employment growth. A negative oil price shock leads to a slowdown in the growth of the aggregate level of wages and to an increase in the average level of unemployment.Keywords: oil prices, employment, competition, labor, human capital.JEL Classifications: Q41, E24, F16, C12

In this article we test the hypothesis of oil price channel of US monetary policy transmission to oil-exporting countries under floating exchange rate regime and free capital mobility. On the example of Russia, using quarterly data for the period from 2000 to 2016, we study the long-term and short-term relations between the US effective federal funds rate, world oil prices (Brent) and the Bank of Russia’s key rate. The results of the VEC model show that the system of variables corrects its previous period disequilibrium at a speed 61,24% in one quarter. Based on the results of the Wald test, we find statistically significant causality running from world oil prices to interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia with the rate of adaptation to equilibrium by 10.21%. The results also show presence of causality running from US monetary policy to Bank of Russia’s key rate with the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium at 25,69%. Overall results of the study show that a negative shock in US rate leads to decline in oil prices (Brent), which in turn leads to an increase in Russia’s key rate. Revealed oil price transmission channel serves also as an additional argument against Mundell-Fleming Trilemma, according to which under floating exchange rate and free capital mobility, monetary policy of the country may be independent.Keywords: world oil prices, transmission channel, Mundell-Fleming trilemma, monetary policyJEL Classifications: E50; E58; F40; Q41, Q43.

In this article, we test a hypothesis about the influence of sunspot cycles on cycles of agricultural lending on example of wheat market. Analyzing data on Russian wheat market for period from 1990 to 2015 we test a hypothesis of solar activity’s impact on cycles in agricultural lending in the short and long run. Using a vector error correction approach to the sample, we obtain the following results: in the long run, sunspots, wheat yield, world wheat prices, and non-performing loans (NPL) for wheat market are related. In the short run, level of non-performing wheat loans depends only on wheat yields. However, results of Granger causality test confirm that wheat yield dynamics and sunspots Granger cause non-performing bank loans in Russia, which confirms our hypothesis of solar activity importance for agricultural lending activity.

In this article, we set ourselves a task of determining a potential of using credit for improving energy effi ciency in the economy of rent seeking. Based on cross-country analysis and using channels’ approach to estimation of institutions’ and market’s effi ciency we come to conclusion that persistently low energy effi ciency in East European countries may be a result of low quality market institutions. Testing a hypothesis of credit being the source of improving energy effi ciency (e.g., through introduction and granting energy effi cient loans) showed that the effect of credit channel is negative in case of low quality institutions in the economy and low elasticity of national markets. On opposite, credit is capable of breaking the energy curse, when successful institutional infrastructure is functioning, and competitive environment takes its place when geographical and spatial features are taken into account.

In this paper, we set ourselves a task to test a hypothesis of transmission channel of oil shocks to migration decisions of the population. According to the hypothesis, oil prices’ shocks have a direct impact on economic growth (assuming the economy's dependence on oil export’s revenues) and indirectly affect migration trends according to a classical migration theory in Heckscher-Ohlin paradigm. The hypothesis is tested on the example of Russia for the period from 1990 to 2015. To detect long-term relationship between sampled variables we use VECM models; for testing presence of short-run dependencies, we use Wald test. Structural and dynamic responses to shocks in short run are tested by variance decomposition and impulse response functions. In result, we are able to confirm the hypothesis. On the one hand, existence of a long-term relationship between oil prices, economic growth and emigration is established. In the short-run, we find direct causality between oil prices and economic growth, as well as between economic growth and emigration. Thereby, existence of transmission in form of indirect channel of oil prices’ shocks on migration decisions of households is confirmed

In this article, we set ourselves a task of determining a potential of using credit for improving energy efficiency in the economy of rent seeking. Based on cross-country analysis and using channels’ approach to estimation of institutions’ and market’s efficiency we come to conclusion that persistently low energy efficiency in East European countries may be a result of low quality market institutions. Testing a hypothesis of credit being the source of improving energy efficiency (e.g., through introduction and granting energy efficient loans) showed that the effect of credit channel is negative in case of low quality institutions in the economy and low elasticity of national markets. On opposite, credit is capable of breaking the energy curse, when successful institutional infrastructure is functioning, and competitive environment takes its place when geographical and spatial features are taken into account.

In this article we set ourselves the task to determine the place of the debt restructuring process upon various phases of the credit cycle. Given the fact that modern theories of credit cycle do not emit debt restructuring as an essential element of the credit cycle development, using data on the development of the Russian banking sector for the period from 2004 to 2012, we analyze the specifics of debt restructuring in the banks’ activity. In the study we have identified patterns of restructuring processes’ dynamics and correlated them with the phases of the credit cycle. Also as a result of the research we propose and test methods of the restructuring trend’s identification on the example of the Russian banking sector. The hypothesis of the natural rate of restructuring and deviations from it at the different phases of the credit cycle is also stated. In particular, we believe that restructuring is a natural process in credit relations, but in the pre-crisis period of expansion and the phase of the credit crunch, debt restructuring deviates from the threshold values and changes its role of the instrument of maintaining stability on the credit market to become a deterrent to clear the market of bad debts.

In this article we try to identify potential sources of credit cyclicality. Unfortunately, contemporary models of the credit cycle are paying insuffiecent attention to this issue. The substitution of notions occurs quite often and reveals itself as a serious theoretical flaw. For example, in some studies the mechanism is accepted as the source of credit cyclicity. In some cases, factors of cyclical fluctuations are recognized as the main cause of such credit dynamics. Using the terminological approach, we carried out a comparative analysis of potential sources of the credit cycle, proposed in the literature on the issue. As the result of the study we offer to determine the source of the credit cycle as its basis - an element, without which changes in supply and demand for credit cannot be inherently cyclical in nature. In our opinion the sources of this phenomenon can be found in bounded rationality of lenders and borrowers, and in uncertainty of economic conditions. This approach allows us to determine the core of the credit cycle, as a mechanism of credit risk oscillations in the short-term and medium-term periods. This approach also allows us to successfully solve the theoretical controversy regarding the nature of the credit cycle, existing in the modern literature on the issue.

This study examines the relationship between energy intensity in different world regions. To explain relationship between them we test a hypothesis of international trade channel and determine degree of sensitivity of national economy’s energy intensity to actions of major competitors in export market. Based on data of energy intensity for more than 150 countries for the period from 1980 to 2011, using regression analysis, we built a number of unrestricted VAR models reflecting relationship between energy intensity of different regions, and relationship between groups of economies, primary source of exports for which is fuel or engineering sector. To characterize elasticity of energy intensity in sampled countries, we use variance decomposition and impulse response techniques. The study shows the presence of a stable relationship between energy intensity for different regions of the world. Testing interlinkages between energy intensity of economies exporting raw materials (e.g. oil) and engineering production, for trade channel, confirms its existence. The sensitivity of economies exporting raw materials to shocks in energy intensity tends to be significantly lower than in economies exporting consumer goods.