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We have investigated an interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) along the northwestern African coast, so-called, Dakar Niño, and its change under global warming of highest emission scenario RCP8.5 employing a high-resolution regional coupled model. Our reginal coupled model is capable of reproducing the seasonal cycle of the SST along the northwestern African coast and its interannual variability with respect to amplitude, timing, and position of the maximized variability between 9°N-14°N from March to April. Comparing the Dakar Niño variability between the periods of 1980-2010 and 2069-2099, we found that its variability intensifies under warmer climate without changing its location and timing of maximization. The intensification is more pronounced during the Dakar Niñas (cold SST event) than during Niños (warm SST event) and the variability in ocean temperature is connected more deeply with the Dakar Niño variability (vertical motion is more strongly correlated). The stronger Dakar Niño variability and deeper connection with subsurface variability can be explained by the larger meridional wind stress variability along the northwestern African coast, which can be amplified by more enhanced land-sea thermal contrast anomaly, in the future. In addition, the ocean temperature is warmed more effectively above 40m depth where the temperature anomaly is more dominant, that is, the stratification is reinforced around 40m depth. This enhanced stratification can also cause the reinforcement of Dakar Niño/Niña variability.

Owing to the complicated spatial-temporal characteristics of East Asian precipitation (EAP), climate models have limited skills in simulating the modern Asian climate. This consequently leads to large uncertainties in simulations of the past EAP variation and future projections. Here, we explore the performance of the newly developed Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model, version 3 (AWI-CM3) in simulating the climatological summer EAP. To test whether the model’s skill depends on its atmosphere resolution, we design two AWI-CM3 simulations with different horizontal resolutions. The result shows that both simulations have acceptable performance in simulating the summer mean EAP, generally better than the majority of individual models participating in the Climate Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). However, for the monthly EAP from June to August, AWI-CM3 exhibits a decayed skill, which is due to the sub-seasonal movement of the western Pacific subtropical high bias. The higher resolution AWI-CM3 simulation shows an overall improvement relative to the one performed at a relatively lower resolution in all aspects taken into account regarding the EAP. We conclude that AWI-CM3 is a suitable tool for exploring the EAP for the observational period. Having verified the model’s skill for modern climate, we suggest employing the AWI-CM3, especially with high atmosphere resolution, also for applications in paleoclimate studies and future projections.

We investigate the effect of variable marine biogeochemical light absorption on Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and how this affects the South Asian climate. In twin experiments with a regional Earth system model, we found that the average SST is lower over most of the domain when variable marine biogeochemical light absorption is taken into account, compared to the reference experiment with a constant light attenuation coefficient equal to 0.06 m−1. The most significant deviations (more than 1 ∘C) in SST are observed in the monsoon season. A considerable cooling of subsurface layers occurs, and the thermocline shifts upward in the experiment with the activated biogeochemical impact. Also, the phytoplankton primary production becomes higher, especially during periods of winter and summer phytoplankton blooms. The effect of altered SST variability on climate was investigated by coupling the ocean models to a regional atmosphere model. We find the largest effects on the amount of precipitation, particularly during the monsoon season. In the Arabian Sea, the reduction of the transport of humidity across the Equator leads to a reduction of the large-scale precipitation in the eastern part of the basin, reinforcing the reduction of the convective precipitation. In the Bay of Bengal, it increases the large-scale precipitation, countering convective precipitation decline. Thus, the key impacts of including the full biogeochemical coupling with corresponding light attenuation, which in turn depends on variable chlorophyll a concentration, include the enhanced phytoplankton primary production, a shallower thermocline, and decreased SST and water temperature in subsurface layers, with cascading effects upon the model ocean physics which further translates into altered atmosphere dynamics.

In this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

Simulations from seven global coupled climate models performed at high and standard resolution as part of the high resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) are analyzed to study deep ocean mixing in the Labrador Sea and the impact of increased horizontal resolution. The representation of convection varies strongly among models. Compared to observations from ARGO-floats and the EN4 data set, most models substantially overestimate deep convection in the Labrador Sea. In four out of five models, all four using the NEMO-ocean model, increasing the ocean resolution from 1° to 1/4° leads to increased deep mixing in the Labrador Sea. Increasing the atmospheric resolution has a smaller effect than increasing the ocean resolution. Simulated convection in the Labrador Sea is mainly governed by the release of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere and by the vertical stratification of the water masses in the Labrador Sea in late autumn. Models with stronger sub-polar gyre circulation have generally higher surface salinity in the Labrador Sea and a deeper convection. While the high-resolution models show more realistic ocean stratification in the Labrador Sea than the standard resolution models, they generally overestimate the convection. The results indicate that the representation of sub-grid scale mixing processes might be imperfect in the models and contribute to the biases in deep convection. Since in more than half of the models, the Labrador Sea convection is important for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), this raises questions about the future behavior of the AMOC in the models. This work has been funded by the PRIMAVERA project, which is funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 programme, Grant Agreement No. 641727PRIMAVERA. D. V. Sein was also supported by the state assignment of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Russia (theme No. 0128-2021-0014). PO was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competiveness through the Ramon y Cajal grant (RYC-2017-22772). The global ocean heat flux and evaporation products were provided by the WHOI OAFlux project (http://oaflux.whoi.edu) funded by the NOAA Climate Observations and Monitoring (COM) program. Peer Reviewed "Article signat per 12 autors/es: Torben Koenigk, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Virna L. Meccia, Oliver Gutjahr, Laura C. Jackson, Adrian L. New, Pablo Ortega, Christopher D. Roberts, Malcolm J. Roberts, Thomas Arsouze, Doroteaciro Iovino, Marie-Pierre Moine & Dmitry V. Sein "

In the last decades, offshore wind harvesting has increased enormously, and is seen as a renewable energy resource with great potential in many regions of the world. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how this resource will evolve in a warming climate. In the present study, offshore wind resource in the Southwestern African region is analysed for the present and future climates. A ROM (REMO-OASIS-MPIOM) climate simulation in uncoupled and coupled atmosphere–ocean mode, at 25 km horizontal resolution, and a multi-model ensemble built with a set of regional climate models from the CORDEX-Africa experiment at 0.44° resolution were used. The projected changes of the offshore wind energy density throughout the twenty-first century are examined following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Characterised by strong coastal-parallel winds, the Southwestern African offshore region shows high values of wind energy density at 100 m, up to 1500 Wm⁻² near the coast, particularly offshore Namibia and west South Africa. Conversely, along Angola’s coast the available offshore wind energy density is lower. Throughout the twenty-first century, for the weaker climate mitigation scenario (RCP8.5), an increase of the offshore wind resource is projected to occur along Namibia and South African western coasts, more pronounced at the end of the century (+ 24%), while a decrease is projected along Angola’s coasts, reaching a negative anomaly of about − 32%. Smaller changes but with the same pattern are projected for the stronger climate mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). The future deployment of offshore floating hub turbines placed at higher heights may allow higher production of energy in this region. Along offshore Namibia and west South Africa, the wind energy density at 250 m showed differences that range between 30 and 50% relative to wind energy density at 100 m.

Cyclones with tropical characteristics called medicanes (“Mediterranean Hur-ricanes”) eventually develop in the Mediterranean Sea. They have large harm-ful potential and a correct simulation of their evolution in climate projections is important for an adequate adaptation to climate change. Different studies suggest that ocean–atmosphere coupled models provide a better representation of medicanes, especially in terms of intensity and frequency. In this work, we use the regionally-coupled model ROM to study how air-sea interactions affect the evolution of medicanes in future climate projections. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario our climate simulations show an overall frequency decrease which is more pronounced in the coupled than in the uncoupled con-figuration, whereas the intensity displays a different behaviour depending on the coupling. In the coupled run, the relative frequency of higher-intensity medicanes increases, but this is not found in the uncoupled simulation. Also, this study indicates that the coupled model simulates better the summer mini-mum in the occurrence of medicanes, avoiding the reproduction of unrealisti-cally intense events that can be found in summer in the uncoupled model.

The effect of air-sea coupling in the simulation of the European climate is assessed through a climate type classification that uses surface temperature and precipitation from a regional atmosphere-ocean coupled model and from its atmospheric component. The atmospheric setup in both models is the same, differing only in the representation of the oceanic fields. The simulations cover the present and future-time climate under the RCP8.5 CMIP5 scenario. Climate type distributions obtained from both coupled and uncoupled simulations are similar to those obtained from ERA5 for the 1976–2005 period. Both models simulate colder climate types for present-time in southern and northeastern regions compared to ERA5, possibly due to a weaker influence of the Atlantic circulation, and drier climate types in some western Mediterranean areas. Also, for present-time coupling leads to more humid winters (relatively drier summers) in some zones of north Spain and south France, and drier climates in some western Mediterranean spots. Based on simulations with these models under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099) the climate type distribution changes in more than 50% of the domain. While both models project the reduction of regions with cold climate types and the expansion of those with hot summers and hot arid climate types, these changes affect a larger area in the coupled simulation. These differences may be related to a drier signal in the coupled simulation, especially during summer, due to the influence of colder surface water in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. Using a climate classification to evaluate the annual cycles of the simulated temperature and precipitation data provides a novel insight into the impact of air-ocean coupling on the representation of the climate, and consequently into the simulated impact on ecosystems and human activities in Europe.

In this study we will present the second part of the assessment and evaluation of the unstructured-mesh Finite-volumE Sea ice-Ocean Model version 2.0 (FESOM2.0). It focuses on the performance of partial cells, embedded sea ice and on the effect of mixing parameterisations available through the CVMix package.It is shown that partial cells and embedded sea ice lead to significant improvements in the representation of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current as well as the circulation of the Arctic Ocean. In addition to the already existing Pacanowski and Phillander (fesom_PP) and K-profile (fesom_KPP) parameterisations for vertical mixing in FESOM2.0, we document the impact of several mixing parameterisations from the Community Vertical Mixing (CVMix) project library. Among them are the CVMix versions of Pacanowski and Phillander (cvmix_PP) and K-profile (cvmix_KPP) parameterisations, the tidal mixing parameterisation (cvmix_TIDAL), a vertical mixing parameterisation based on turbulent kinetic energy (cvmix_TKE) as well as a combination of cvmix_TKE and the recent scheme for the computation of the Internal Wave Dissipation, Energy and Mixing (IDEMIX). Further, we show the benefit from using a parameterisation of southern hemisphere sea ice melt season mixing in the surface layer (MOMIX) for reducing Southern Ocean hydrographic biases in FESOM2.0.

This paper presents global comparisons of fundamental global climate variables from a suite of four pairs of matched low- and high-resolution ocean and sea ice simulations that are obtained following the OMIP-2 protocol (Griffies et al., 2016) and integrated for one cycle (1958–2018) of the JRA55-do atmospheric state and runoff dataset (Tsujino et al., 2018). Our goal is to assess the robustness of climate-relevant improvements in ocean simulations (mean and variability) associated with moving from coarse (∼ 1∘) to eddy-resolving (∼ 0.1∘) horizontal resolutions. The models are diverse in their numerics and parameterizations, but each low-resolution and high-resolution pair of models is matched so as to isolate, to the extent possible, the effects of horizontal resolution. A variety of observational datasets are used to assess the fidelity of simulated temperature and salinity, sea surface height, kinetic energy, heat and volume transports, and sea ice distribution. This paper provides a crucial benchmark for future studies comparing and improving different schemes in any of the models used in this study or similar ones. The biases in the low-resolution simulations are familiar, and their gross features – position, strength, and variability of western boundary currents, equatorial currents, and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current – are significantly improved in the high-resolution models. However, despite the fact that the high-resolution models “resolve” most of these features, the improvements in temperature and salinity are inconsistent among the different model families, and some regions show increased bias over their low-resolution counterparts. Greatly enhanced horizontal resolution does not deliver unambiguous bias improvement in all regions for all models.

Changes of surface air temperature (SAT) over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario are projected for wet and dry seasons in the short-term (2020–2049) and long-term (2070–2099) future of the twenty-first century. A first analysis on projections of the SAT by the state-of-the-art regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean model ROM, including exchanges of momentum, heat, and water fluxes between the atmosphere (Regional Model) and ocean (Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) models, shows the following results: (i) In both seasons, the highest SAT occurs over the southern coastal area while the lowest over the northern mountains. The highest warming magnitudes are located in the northwestern part of the ICP. The regionally averaged SAT over the ICP increases by 2.61 °C in the wet season from short- to long-term future, which is slightly faster than that of 2.50 °C in the dry season. (ii) During the short-term future, largest SAT trends occur over the southeast and northwest ICP in wet and dry seasons, respectively. On regional average, the wet season is characterized by a significant warming rate of 0.22 °C decade−1, while it is non-significant with 0.11 °C decade−1 for the dry season. For the long-term future, the rapid warming is strengthened significantly over whole ICP, with trends of 0.51 °C decade−1 and 0.42 °C decade−1 in wet and dry seasons, respectively. (iii) In the long-term future, more conspicuous warming is noted, especially in the wet season, due to the increased downward longwave radiation. Higher CO2 concentrations enhancing the greenhouse effect can be attributed to the water vapor–greenhouse feedback, which, affecting atmospheric humidity and counter radiation, leads to the rising SAT.

We analyze the climate change signal in the Mediterranean Sea using the regionally coupled model REMO–OASIS–MPIOM (ROM; abbreviated from the regional atmosphere model, the OASIS3 coupler and the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model). The ROM oceanic component is global with regionally high horizontal resolution in the Mediterranean Sea so that the water exchanges with the adjacent North Atlantic and Black Sea are explicitly simulated. Simulations forced by ERA-Interim show an accurate representation of the present Mediterranean climate. Our analysis of the RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathway) scenario using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model shows that the Mediterranean waters will be warmer and saltier throughout most of the basin by the end of this century. In the upper ocean layer, temperature is projected to have a mean increase of 2.7 ∘C, while the mean salinity will increase by 0.2 psu, presenting a decreasing trend in the western Mediterranean in contrast to the rest of the basin. The warming initially takes place at the surface and propagates gradually to deeper layers. Hydrographic changes have an impact on intermediate water characteristics, potentially affecting the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation in the future.

Twenty-first century projections for the Mediterranean water properties have been analyzed using the largest ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) available up to now, the Med-CORDEX ensemble. It is comprised by 25 simulations, 10 historical and 15 scenario projections, from which 11 are ocean–atmosphere coupled runs and 4 are ocean forced simulations. Three different emissions scenarios are considered: RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. All the simulations agree in projecting a warming across the entire Mediterranean basin by the end of the century as a result of the decrease of heat losses to the atmosphere through the sea surface and an increase in the net heat input through the Strait of Gibraltar. The warming will affect the whole water column with higher anomalies in the upper layer. The temperature change projected by the end of the century ranges between 0.81 and 3.71 °C in the upper layer (0–150 m), between 0.82 and 2.97 °C in the intermediate layer (150–600 m) and between 0.15 and 0.18 °C in the deep layer (600 m—bottom). The intensity of the warming is strongly dependent on the choice of emission scenario and, in second order, on the choice of Global Circulation Model (GCM) used to force the RCM. On the other hand, the local structures reproduced by each simulation are mainly determined by the regional model and not by the scenario or the global model. The salinity also increases in all the simulation due to the increase of the freshwater deficit (i.e. the excess of evaporation over precipitation and river runoff) and the related increase in the net salt transport at the Gibraltar Strait. However, in the upper layer this process can be damped or enhanced depending upon the characteristics of the inflowing waters from the Atlantic. This, in turn, depends on the evolution of salinity in the Northeast Atlantic projected by the GCM. Thus a clear zonal gradient is found in most simulations with large positive salinity anomalies in the eastern basin and a freshening of the upper layer of the western basin in most simulations. The salinity changes projected for the whole basin range between 0 and 0.34 psu in the upper layer, between 0.08 and 0.37 psu in the intermediate layer and between − 0.05 and 0.33 in the deep layer. These changes in the temperature and salinity modify in turn the characteristics of the main water masses as the new waters become saltier, warmer and less dense along the twenty-first century. There is a model consensus that the intensity of the deep water formation in the Gulf of Lions is expected to decrease in the future. The rate of decrease remains however very uncertain depending on the scenario and model chosen. At the contrary, there is no model consensus concerning the change in the intensity of the deep water formation in the Adriatic Sea and in the Aegean Sea, although most models also point to a reduction., This study was funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades funded CLIFISH Project (CTM2015-66400-C3-2-R).

The performance of the regional atmosphere-ocean coupled model ROM (REMO-OASIS-MPIOM) is compared with its atmospheric component REMO in simulating the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the time period 1980–2012 with the following results being obtained. (1) The REMO model in the standalone configuration with the prescribed sea surface conditions produces stronger low-level westerlies associated with the South Asian summer monsoon, an eastward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and a wetter lower troposphere, which jointly lead to moisture pathways characterized by stronger westerlies with convergence eastward to the western North Pacific (WNP). As a consequence, the simulated precipitation in REMO is stronger over the ocean and weaker over the East Asian continent than in the observational datasets. (2) Compared with the REMO results, lower sea surface temperatures (SSTs) feature the ROM simulation with enhanced air-sea exchanges from the intensified low-level winds over the subtropical WNP, generating an anomalous low-level anticyclone and hence improving simulations of the low-level westerlies and WPSH. With lower SSTs, ROM produces less evaporation over the ocean, inducing a drier lower troposphere. As a result, the precipitation simulated by ROM is improved over the East Asian continent but with dry biases over the WNP. (3) Both models perform fairly well for the upper level circulation. In general, compared with the standalone REMO model, ROM improves simulations of the circulation associated with the moisture transport in the lower- to mid-troposphere and reproduces the observed EASM characteristics, demonstrating the advantages of the regionally coupled model ROM in regions where air-sea interactions are highly relevant for the East Asian climate.

Here, we analyze future projections of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean region at the end of the twenty-first century based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) from the Med-CORDEX initiative under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Despite some noticeable biases, all the RCSMs capture spatial patterns and cyclone activity key characteristics in the region and thus all of them can be considered as plausible representations of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones. In general, the RCSMs show at the end of the twenty-first century a decrease in the number and an overall weakening of cyclones moving across the Mediterranean. Five out of seven RCSMs simulate also a decrease of the mean size of the systems. Moreover, in agreement with what already observed in CMIP5 projections for the area, the models suggest an increase in the Central part of the Mediterranean region and a decrease in the South-eastern part of the region in the cyclone-related wind speed and precipitation rate. These rather two opposite tendencies observed in the precipitation should compensate and amplify, respectively, the effect of the overall reduction of the frequency of cyclones on the water budget over the Central and South-eastern part of the region. A pronounced inter-model spread among the RCSMs emerges for the projected changes in the cyclone adjusted deepening rate, seasonal cycle occurrence and associated precipitation and wind patterns over some areas of the basin such as Ionian Sea and Iberian Peninsula. The differences observed appear to be determined by the driving Global Circulation Model (GCM) and influenced by the RCSM physics and internal variability. These results point to the importance of (1) better characterizing the range of plausible futures by relying on ensembles of models that explore well the existing diversity of GCMs and RCSMs as well as the climate natural variability and (2) better understanding the driving mechanisms of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones properties.

Using the depth (z) and density (ϱ) frameworks, we analyze local contributions to AMOC variability in a 900‐year simulation with the AWI climate model. Both frameworks reveal a consistent interdecadal variability; however, the correlation between their maxima deteriorates on year‐to‐year scales. We demonstrate the utility of analyzing the spatial patterns of sinking and diapycnal transformations through depth levels and isopycnals. The success of this analysis relies on the spatial binning of these maps which is especially crucial for the maps of vertical velocities which appear to be too noisy in the main regions of upwelling and downwelling because of stepwise bottom topography. Furthermore, we show that the AMOC responds to fast (annual or faster) fluctuations in atmospheric forcing associated with the NAO. This response is more obvious in the ϱ than in the z framework. In contrast, the link between AMOC and deep water production south of Greenland is found for slower fluctuations and is consistent between the frameworks.

Atmospheric rivers (AR) are important drivers of heavy precipitation events in western and central Europe and often associated with intense floods. So far, the ARs response to climate change in Europe has been investigated by global climate models within the CMIP5 framework. However, their spatial resolution between 1 and 3° is too coarse for an adequate assessment of local to regional precipitation patterns. Using a regional climate model with 0.22° resolution we downscale an ensemble of 24 global climate simulations following the greenhouse gas scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. The performance of the model was tested against ER-I reanalysis data. The downscaled simulation notably better represents small-scale spatial characteristics which is most obvious over the terrain of the Iberian Peninsula where the AR induced precipitation pattern clearly reflect eat-west striking topographical elements resulting in zonal bands of high and low AR impact. Over central Europe the model simulates a less far propagation of ARs toward eastern Europe compared to ERA-I but a higher share of AR forced heavy precipitation events especially Norway where 60 % of annual precipitation maxima are related to ARs. We find ARs more frequent and more intense in a future warmer climate especially in the higher emission scenarios whereas the changes are mostly mitigated under the assumption of RCP2.6. They also propagate further inland to eastern Europe in a warmer climate. In the high emission scenario RCP8.5 AR induced precipitation rates increase between 20 and 40 % in western central Europe while mean precipitation rates increase by maximal 12 %. Over the Iberian Peninsula AR induced precipitation rates slightly decrease around −6 % but mean rates decrease around −15 %. The result of these changes is an overall increased contribution of ARs to heavy precipitation with greatest impact over Iberia (15–30 %). Over Norway average AR precipitation rates decline between −5 to −30 %. These reductions most likely the originate from regional dynamical changes. In fact, over Norway we find ARs originating from > 60° N are reduced by up to 20 % while those originating south of 45° N are increased. Also, no clear climate change signal is seen for AR related heavy precipitation and annual maximum precipitation over Norway where the uncertainty of the ensemble is quite large.

The Mediterranean basin is one of the main cyclogenetic regions in the world. This is likely due to the orographic conditions, as well as the thermodynamiccharacteristics found over the Mediterranean. Among the large amount of cyclones that develop in this area, cyclones with tropical characteristics called medicanes (“Mediterranean Hurricanes”) eventually develop in the Mediterranean Sea. They have large harmful potential and a correct simulation of their evolution in climate projections is important for an adequate adaptation to climate change. Different studies suggest that ocean–atmosphere coupled models provide a better representation of medicanes, especially in terms of intensity and frequency. In this work, we use the regionally coupled model ROM and its stand-alone atmospheric component (REMO) that in this work is used as uncoupled model to study how air-sea interactions affect the evolution of medicanes in future climate projections. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario our climate simulations show an overall frequency decrease which is more pronounced in the coupled than in the uncoupled configuration, whereas the intensity displays a different behaviour depending on the coupling. These changes could be explained due to the decrease in the number of extratropical cyclones and the increase of atmospheric stability conditions. In the coupled run, the relative frequency of higher-intensity medicanes increases, but this is not found in the uncoupled simulation. Also, this study indicates that the coupled model simulates better the summer minimum in the occurrence of medicanes, avoiding the reproduction of unrealistically intense events that can be found in summer in the uncoupled model.

TheTyrrhenian Seaplaysanimportantrole in the winter deep waterformationin the North Western Mediterranean throughthe water thatenters the Ligurian Seavia the Corsica Channel. Therefore, the study of the impact of the changes in the future climate on the Tyrrhenian circulation and its consequences represents an important issue. Furthermore,theseasonally-dependent,richin dynamical mesoscale structures,Tyrrhenian circulationisdominatedby the interplay of local climate and thebasin-wide Mediterranean circulation via thewater transport across its major straitsand an adequate representation of its features represents an importantmodelingchallenge. In this work we examinewith a regionally-coupled atmosphere-ocean modelthechanges in the Tyrrhenian circulationby the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, theirdriving mechanisms, as well as their possible impact on winter convection in the NW Mediterranean.Ourmodelsuccessfully reproduces the main features of the Mediterranean Sea and Tyrrhenian basin present-day circulation. We find thattoward the end of the centurythewintercyclonic, along-slope stream around the Tyrrhenian basin becomes weaker. This weakening increases the wind work transferred to the mesoscalestructures, which become more intense than at present in winter and summer. We also find that, in the future, the northward water transport across the Corsica Channel towards theLiguro-Provençal basin becomes smaller than today. Also, water that flows through this channel presents a stronger stratification because of a generalized warming with asalteningof intermediate waters. Both factors may contribute to the interruption ofdeep waterformation in the Gulf of Lions by the end of the century.

Impacts of climate change on heat budget in the Eastern China Seas (ECSs) are estimated under the historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using an atmosphere-ocean coupled regional climate model system (REMO/MPIOM). The results suggest that the recent and future ocean warming over the ECSs is linked overall to an increased oceanic heat transport by currents, which is partly compensated by the air-sea heat exchange. The Taiwan Strait is the major source of oceanic heat into the ECSs, whereas the shelf break section (SBS) acts as a heat sink. An increased net oceanic heat transport into the ECSs is projected under both considered RCP scenarios, mainly resulting from a reduction of the outward heat transport through the SBS. The mean relative contribution of SBS to the oceanic heat transport thus decreases by 4%–5% under both RCP scenarios, relative to historical run. Regarding the surface air-sea exchange, the heat loss caused by thermal radiation, latent and sensible heat in the ECSs exceeds the heat gain achieved by solar radiation. Under the RCP scenarios, warmer SST and stronger surface wind will enhance the upward latent heat flux, eventually leading to a more pronounced heat loss from the ECSs. The mean relative contributions of the latent heat flux to the air-sea heat exchange notably increases by 2%–3% under both projection scenarios, relative to historical run. Taking into account all components of the ECSs heat balance, we deduce that the increased horizontal heat transport will enhance the surface evaporation over the ECSs under future warming.

The Hengduan Mountains and Tibetan Plateau possess unique topographical characteristics that serve as an effective blocking of the movement of the westerly wind in the middle and lower troposphere towards East China. This study examines results from a regional climate model (REMO) at the resolutions of 25 and 50 km for the period 1980–2012. The model is run using lateral boundary conditions from ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis). There are only a few differences between 25 and 50 km in land surface/vegetation characteristics, but the major differences in this region are due to the orography. Results show that the high-resolution simulation performance is poor in winter, when southwesterly wind prevails, whereas it performs well in summer, when the westerly wind is substantially weakened in southern China. In comparison to the ERA-Interim wind field, the high-resolution simulation overestimates the air flow over the Hengduan Mountains near the ground surface, which influences the transport of atmospheric water vapor in the downstream region, i.e., over southern China. Specifically, with the help of the overestimated southwesterly wind, the amount of atmospheric water vapor transported increases considerably perennially by up to 20% in southern China, while it decreases remarkably by more than 5% throughout the year in a large area of Central and North China. These features lead to excessive precipitation and underestimated cloud cover in southern China, which probably causes the overestimated 2-m temperature in southern China. Our study emphasizes that, in such high-resolution-model studies for East Asia, special attention should be paid to the near-surface winds over the Hengduan Mountains.

The North African Coastal Low-Level Jet (NACLLJ) is a semi-permanent feature offshore the north western African coast, linked to the cold nearshore upwelling of the Canary Eastern Boundary Current system. Its main synoptic drivers are the Azores Anticyclone over the ocean and the inland Sahara thermal low. The coastal jet events occur in one of the world’s most productive fisheries region, thus the evaluation of the effects of global warming in its properties is imperative. This study proposes an analysis of the annual and intra-annual attributes of the NACLLJ for two time periods 1976–2005 (historical) and 2070–2199 (future), resorting to coupled and uncoupled atmosphere–ocean simulations with the ROM model, as well as near surface offshore wind speed from the CORDEX-Africa ensemble. The future simulations follow the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Overall, the ROM coupled simulation presents the best performance in reproducing the present-climate near surface wind speed, offshore northwest Africa, compared to the remaining RCM simulations. The higher SST resolution in the coupled simulations favours much localised colder upwelling strips near the coast and consequently stronger jets. In future climate, a small increase in the surface wind speed is projected, mainly linked to the regions of coastal jet presence. The NACLLJ is projected to be more frequent and intense, encompassing larger areas. An increase of the jet seasonal frequencies of occurrence is projected for all seasons, which is larger from spring to autumn (up to 15, 16 and 22% more frequent, respectively). However, in some offshore areas the winter NACLLJ persistency is likely to double, relatively to present-climate. Higher inter-annual variability is also projected for the future NACLLJ seasonal frequencies. The strengthening of the coastal jet speeds is also significant, between 5 and 12% in all seasons. Additionally, the jet’s diurnal cycle shows an increase in jet occurrence across the day, particularly in the mid and late afternoon.

The freshwater stored in the Arctic Ocean is an important component of the global climate system. Currently the Arctic liquid freshwater content (FWC) has reached a record high since the beginning of the last century. In this study we use numerical simulations to investigate the impact of sea ice decline on the Arctic liquid FWC and its spatial distribution. The global unstructured-mesh ocean general circulation model Finite Element Sea Ice–Ocean Model (FESOM) with 4.5-km horizontal resolution in the Arctic region is applied. The simulations show that sea ice decline increases the FWC by freshening the ocean through sea ice meltwater and modifies upper ocean circulation at the same time. The two effects together significantly increase the freshwater stored in the Amerasian basin and reduce its amount in the Eurasian basin. The salinification of the upper Eurasian basin is mainly caused by the reduction in the proportion of Pacific Water and the increase in that of Atlantic Water (AW). Consequently, the sea ice decline did not significantly contribute to the observed rapid increase in the Arctic total liquid FWC. However, the changes in the Arctic freshwater spatial distribution indicate that the influence of sea ice decline on the ocean environment is remarkable. Sea ice decline increases the amount of Barents Sea branch AW in the upper Arctic Ocean, thus reducing its supply to the deeper Arctic layers. This study suggests that all the dynamical processes sensitive to sea ice decline should be taken into account when understanding and predicting Arctic changes.

The Canary current upwelling is one of the major eastern boundary coastal upwelling systems in the world, bearing a high productive ecosystem and commercially important fisheries. The Canary current upwelling system (CCUS) has a large latitudinal extension, usually divided into upwelling zones with different characteristics. Eddies, filaments and other mesoscale processes are known to have an impact in the upwelling productivity, thus for a proper representation of the CCUS and high horizontal resolution are required. Here we assess the CCUS present climate in the atmosphere-ocean regionally coupled model. The regional coupled model presents a global oceanic component with increased horizontal resolution along the northwestern African coast, and its performance over the CCUS is assessed against relevant reanalysis data sets and compared with an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and an ensemble of atmosphere-only regional climate models (RCMs) in order to assess the role of the horizontal resolution. The coupled system reproduces the larger scale pattern of the CCUS and its latitudinal and seasonal variability over the coastal band, improving the GCMs outputs. Moreover, it shows a performance comparable to the ensemble of RCMs in representing the coastal wind stress and near-surface air temperature fields, showing the impact of the higher resolution and coupling for CCUS climate modelling. The model is able of properly reproducing mesoscale structures, being able to simulate the upwelling filaments events off Cape Ghir, which are not well represented in most of GCMs. Our results stress the ability of the regionally coupled model to reproduce the larger scale as well as mesoscale processes over the CCUS, opening the possibility to evaluate the climate change signal there with increased confidence., Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. Ruben Vazquez was supported through a doctoral grant at the University of Ferrara and University of Cadiz. Dmitry Sein was supported in the framework of the state assignment of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Russia (No. 0128-2021-0014). This work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project ID ba0987.

The second part of the assessment and evaluation of the unstructured-mesh Finite-volumE Sea ice-Ocean Model version 2.0 (FESOM2.0) is presented. It focuses on the performance of partial cells, embedded sea ice and on the effect of mixing parameterisations available through the CVMIX package. It is shown that partial cells and embedded sea ice lead to significant improvements in the representation of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current as well as the circulation of the Arctic Ocean. In addition to the already existing Pacanowski and Phillander (fesom_PP) and K-profile (fesom_KPP) parameterisations for vertical mixing in FESOM2.0, we document the impact of several mixing parameterisations from the Community Vertical Mixing (CVMIX) project library. Among them are the CVMIX versions of Pacanowski and Phillander (cvmix_PP) and K-profile (cvmix_KPP) parameterisations, the tidal mixing parameterisation (cvmix_TIDAL), a vertical mixing parameterisation based on turbulent kinetic energy (cvmix_TKE) as well as a combination of cvmix_TKE and the recent scheme for the computation of the Internal Wave Dissipation, Energy and Mixing (IDEMIX). The IDEMIX parameterises the redistribution of internal wave energy through wave propagation, nonlinear interactions and the associated imprint on the vertical background diffusivity. Further, the benefit from using a parameterisation of sea ice melt season mixing in the surface layer (MOMIX) for reducing Southern Ocean hydrographic biases in FESOM2.0 is presented. We document the implementation of different model components and illustrate their behaviour. This paper serves primarily as a reference for FESOM users but is also useful to the broader modelling community.

Capturing mesoscale eddy dynamics is crucial for accurate simulations of the large-scale ocean currents as well as oceanic and climate variability. Eddy-mean flow interactions affect the position, strength and variations of mean currents and eddies are important drivers of oceanic heat transport and atmosphere-ocean-coupling. However, simulations at eddy-permitting resolutions are substantially underestimating eddy variability and eddy kinetic energy many times over. Such eddy-permitting simulations will be in use for years to come, both in coupled and uncoupled climate simulations. We present a set of kinetic energy backscatter schemes with different complexity as alternative momentum closures that can alleviate some eddy related biases such as biases in the mean currents, in sea surface height variability and in temperature and salinity. The complexity of the schemes reflects in their computational costs, the related simulation improvements and their adaptability to different resolutions. However, all schemes outperform classical viscous closures and are computationally less expensive than a related necessary resolution increase to achieve similar results. While the backscatter schemes are implemented in the ocean model FESOM2, the concepts can be adjusted to any ocean model including NEMO.

In the present study, an evaluation of the past, present, and future variability of droughts in the Bundelkhand region of Central India are analyzed. Bundelkhand is a severe drought-prone region with intense water stress, where in the last five years four were drought. Therefore, understanding the drivers of drought over the region and its future projection is quite crucial for regional water management. The assessment has been made by analyzing the observational dataset from 1951-2018 to understand the regional drought dynamics. The future projection is made using a multi-model ensemble from a regional climate model over the CORDEX South-Asia domain under the highest emission scenario. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) indices are used to understand present drought and its future projection. In addition to this, drought driving parameters like precipitation, temperature, sea-surface temperature wind circulation has been assessed to understand the regional drought dynamics. The composite analysis of drought indicates that the moisture-laden low-level jet from the Arabian Sea branch generally weakened compared to Bay of Bengal branch for monsoon season. Teleconnections of drought over Bundelkhand region shows that nearly half of the droughts are linked to El-Nino events that have become stronger in recent past. The model result reveals that regional climate variability is reasonably captured over the region. In addition, we found increasing drought frequency since the beginning of the 21st century. The detailed results from the analysis will be shown briefly in the general assembly.Acknowledgement: This work is jointly supported by the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Govt. of India, grant number DST/INT/RUS/RSF/P-33/G and the Russian Science Foundation (Project No.: 19-47-02015). The first author is also thankful to the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Govt. of India for providing DST INSPIRE fellowship (Grant No. IF160281).

Detailed atmospheric, ocean physical and biogeochemical characteristics for the period 2015-2100 within the South Asia CORDEX domain have been obtained from simulations of the Regional Earth System Model ROM.Comparative analysis of average climatic characteristics for the past (1975-2004) and future (2070-2099) climates has been carried out. It shows significant future SST increase, reaching 3ºC on average, over the considered area. The salinity of the ocean's upper layer will decrease by 1 ‰ on average, which indicates a change in the precipitation-evaporation balance in the future climate. The simulated annual MLD will decrease by 5 m in the future. However, this MLD change will be strongly irregular, both in time and space. Simulations also show a widespread decrease of the chlorophyll-a concentration in the surface layer (up to 2 mg Chl m-3) in the future, especially pronounced in the northern and western parts of the Arabian Sea. It is a significant change, given that absolute chlorophyll-a concentration in these areas is typically 3-4 mg Chl m-3 in spring and 5-8 mg Chl m-3 in summer, as obtained for the 1975-2004 model run. The model also shows that the chlorophyll-a concentration at the surface will decrease by 1–2 mg Chl m-3 along the western coast of the Bay of Bengal in the future. The relative decrease in the surface chlorophyll-a concentration will be about 40% in the future climate in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.The model solution according to the SSP5-8.5 scenario shows a decrease in the amount of precipitation in the future climate (up to 3-4 mm/day) over the northeastern part of India and over Nepal in summer. But over the central part of India, in the Andaman Sea, over Thailand and Myanmar, there will be an increase in the amount of precipitation. The total continental runoff into the Bay of Bengal will increase, but the runoff in the Ganges delta will be greatly weakened. Thus, despite the decrease in the runoff of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers, the total continental runoff into the Bay of Bengal turns out to be higher in the future climate (2070-2099) relative to retrospective calculations (1975-2004) due to the runoff of smaller rivers. Acknowledgements: This work is funded by Russian Science Foundation (RSF, Project 19-47-02015) and Department of Science and Technology (DST, Govt. of India, grant DST/INT/RUS/RSF/P-33/G). The research was performed in the framework of the state assignment of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Russia (theme No. 0128-2021-0014). This work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project ID ba1144.

A regional coupled eco-hydrodynamic model of the Barents and Kara Seas based on the MITgcm has been developed. The biogeochemical module is based on a 7-component model of pelagic biogeochemistry including the ocean carbon cycle. This regional model allows revealing and explaining the main mechanisms of the interaction between marine dynamic and biogeochemical processes in the Barents and Kara Seas under a changing climate. We present the main results of simulations for the past (1975-2005) and future (2035-2065) climate.A clear relationship between the marginal ice zone area and primary production has been obtained, proving the importance of this zone in the functioning of the marine ecosystem. The interannual variability of the integrated primary production and the total sea ice area demonstrates an antiphase behavior, which means that the reduced sea ice cover area in the previous winter is one of the main reasons for the increase in primary production in the current year.The model simulations demonstrate that, of all the external factors, sea ice area plays a primary role in the formation of primary production: in the overwhelming majority of cases, the contribution of the ice area prevails, and the pattern "more ice - less primary production" and vice versa is fulfilled in the Barents and Kara Seas. The effect of a decrease of incoming short-wave radiation becomes significant only when a significant decrease of the ice area occurs.Compared to the period 1975-2005, the simulated total primary production in the Barents and Kara Seas is much higher for the period 2035-2065, while the sea ice area significantly decreases.A regression dependence has been obtained for the total annual primary production as a function of sea ice area and incoming short-wave radiation. Its validity is verified for both past (dependent) and future (independent) climatic periods. It justifies the use of such simple statistical model for quick estimates of the primary production in the Barents and Kara Seas.Acknowledgements: The research was performed in the framework of the state assignment of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Russia (theme No. 0128-2021-0014). This work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project ID ba1206.

For the first time for CORDEX-South Asia, a high-resolution regional earth system model (ROM) is adopted to assess the impact of horizontal resolution (0.22° and 0.11°) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and the underlying spatiotemporal variability. ROM at both resolutions bears a close resemblance to observations in simulating the mean precipitation climatology compared to other regional climate models (RCMs) participated in CORDEX- South Asia. ROM shows substantial improvement relative to the ensemble mean of the RCMs included in CORDEX-South Asia. While comparing both simulations with observations, some systematic wet and dry bias over Central India (CI) and Northern Western Ghats is noticed. In general, the wet/dry bias over India is mainly associated with the overestimation/underestimation of the large-scale/convective component. Increasing horizontal resolution from 0.22° to 0.11° significantly adds value in simulating the JJAS mean precipitation by reducing the wet bias over western central India (WCI) and southern peninsular India and dry bias over eastern CI. The reduction in wet/dry bias is mainly associated with suppression/enhancement of the large scale/convective precipitation. This improvement in mean precipitation is partially due to the improved representation of the propagation of mesoscale systems such as boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (eastward and northward). Despite the above improvements, the wet precipitation bias, particularly over WCI, persists. The weaker Findlater Jet associated with weaker land-ocean thermal contrast caused by the warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias over the western Arabian Sea (AS) suggests that AS moisture transport does not contribute to the wet bias over India. The wet bias is possibly associated with favourable atmospheric conditions (atmospheric instability).

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is one of the most important characteristics of an ocean model run. Using the depth (z) and density frameworks, we analyze how the sinking and diapycnal transformations defining the AMOC as well as AMOC strength and variability react to mesh refinement from low to higher resolution in two model runs driven by the CORE‐II forcing. Both runs can represent the key locations of sinking and diapycnal transformations behind AMOC, that is, northeastern North Atlantic. Although their spatial patterns do not change significantly with resolution in both frameworks as the consequence of the same atmospheric forcing, the quantitative differences, reaching several sverdrups, are seen in different locations between two model runs for both frameworks. In particular, the refinement leads to the strongest differences in the vertical transport and diapycnal transformations in the latitude range between 30°N and 55°N. The z framework emphasizes the role of localized upwelling around the Gulf Stream separation site, whereas the density framework emphasizes the contribution of (spurious) diapycnal mixing around the Grand Banks. Both effects are reduced in the higher‐resolution run, leading to higher AMOC south of 26°N as compared to the low‐resolution run, despite the AMOC maxima, located at high latitudes, are higher in the low‐resolution run. We suggest that both AMOC frameworks should be used routinely in standard analyses, including forthcoming intercomparison projects.

Ocean models at eddy‐permitting resolution are generally overdissipative, damping the intensity of the mesoscale eddy field. To reduce overdissipation, we propose a simplified, kinematic energy backscatter parametrization built into the viscosity operator in conjunction with a new flow‐dependent coefficient of viscosity based on nearest neighbor velocity differences. The new scheme mitigates excessive dissipation of energy and improves global ocean simulations at eddy‐permitting resolution. We find that kinematic backscatter substantially raises simulated eddy kinetic energy, similar to an alternative, previously proposed dynamic backscatter parametrization. While dynamic backscatter is scale‐aware and energetically more consistent, its implementation is more complex. Furthermore, it turns out to be computationally more expensive, as it applies, among other things, an additional prognostic subgrid energy equation. The kinematic backscatter proposed here, by contrast, comes at no additional computational cost, following the principle of simplicity. Our primary focus is the discretization on triangular unstructured meshes with cell placement of velocities (an analog of B‐grids), as employed by the Finite‐volumE Sea ice‐Ocean Model (FESOM2). The kinematic backscatter scheme with the new viscosity coefficient is implemented in FESOM2 and tested in the simplified geometry of a zonally reentrant channel as well as in a global ocean simulation on a 1/4° mesh. This first version of the new kinematic backscatter needs to be tuned to the specific resolution regime of the simulation. However, the tuning relies on a single parameter, emphasizing the overall practicality of the approach.

The Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI‐CM) participates for the first time in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), CMIP6. The sea ice‐ocean component, FESOM, runs on an unstructured mesh with horizontal resolutions ranging from 8 to 80km. FESOM is coupled to the Max Planck Institute atmospheric model ECHAM 6.3 at a horizontal resolution of about 100km. Using objective performance indices, it is shown that AWI‐CM performs better than the average of CMIP5 models. AWI‐CM shows an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.2°C, which is similar to the CMIP5 average, and a transient climate response of 2.1°C which is slightly higher than the CMIP5 average. The negative trend of Arctic sea‐ice extent in September over the past 30years is 20–30% weaker in our simulations compared to observations. With the strongest emission scenario, the AMOC decreases by 25% until the end of the century which is less than the CMIP5 average of 40%. Patterns and even magnitude of simulated temperature and precipitation changes at the end of this century compared to present‐day climate under the strong emission scenario SSP585 are similar to the multi‐model CMIP5 mean. The simulations show a 11°C warming north of the Barents Sea and around 2°C to 3°C over most parts of the ocean as well as a wetting of the Arctic, subpolar, tropical, and Southern Ocean. Furthermore, in the northern middle latitudes in boreal summer and autumn as well as in the southern middle latitudes, a more zonal atmospheric flow is projected throughout the year.

Simulations from seven global coupled climate models performed at high and standard resolution as part of the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) have been analyzed to study the impact of horizontal resolution in both ocean and atmosphere on deep ocean convection in the North Atlantic and to evaluate the robustness of the signal across models. The representation of convection varies strongly among models. Compared to observations from ARGO-floats, most models substantially overestimate deep water formation in the Labrador Sea. In the Greenland Sea, some models overestimate convection while others show too weak convection. In most models, higher ocean resolution leads to increased deep convection in the Labrador Sea and reduced convection in the Greenland Sea. Increasing the atmospheric resolution has only little effect on the deep convection, except in two models, which share the same atmospheric component and show reduced convection. Simulated convection in the Labrador Sea is largely governed by the release of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere. Higher resolution models show stronger surface heat fluxes than the standard resolution models in the convection areas, which promotes the stronger convection in the Labrador Sea. In the Greenland Sea, the connection between high resolution and ocean heat release to the atmosphere is less robust and there is more variation across models in the relation between surface heat fluxes and convection. Simulated freshwater fluxes have less impact than surface heat fluxes on convection in both the Greenland and Labrador Sea and this result is insensitive to model resolution. is not robust across models. The mean strength of the Labrador Sea convection is important for the mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and in around half of the models the variability of Labrador Sea convection is a significant contributor to the variability of the AMOC.

Despite ongoing global warming and strong sea ice decline in the Arctic, the sea ice extent around the Antarctic continent has not declined during the satellite era since 1979. This is in stark contrast to existing climate models that tend to show a strong negative sea ice trend for the same period; hence the confidence in projected Antarctic sea-ice changes is considered to be low. In the years since 2016, there has been significantly lower Antarctic sea ice extent, which some consider a sign of imminent change; however, others have argued that sea ice extent is expected to regress to the weak decadal trend in the near future.In this presentation, we show results from climate change projections with a new climate model that allows the simulation of mesoscale eddies in dynamically active ocean regions in a computationally efficient way. We find that the high-resolution configuration (HR) favours periods of stable Antarctic sea ice extent in September as observed over the satellite era. Sea ice is not projected to decline well into the 21st century in the HR simulations, which is similar to the delaying effect of, e.g., added glacial melt water in recent studies. The HR ocean configurations simulate an ocean heat transport that responds differently to global warming and is more efficient at moderating the anthropogenic warming of the Southern Ocean. As a consequence, decrease of Antarctic sea ice extent is significantly delayed, in contrast to what existing coarser-resolution climate models predict.Other explanations why current models simulate a non-observed decline of Antarctic sea-ice have been put forward, including the choice of included sea ice physics and underestimated simulated trends in westerly winds. Our results provide an alternative mechanism that might be strong enough to explain the gap between modeled and observed trends alone.

Pechora Region, located in North-East European Russia, is a unique natural environment with high biodiversity and wilderness areas, such as coastal habitats, the Arctic tundra or the Ural Mountains. The area lies on different permafrost zones and faces considerable challenges such as the over-exploitation of natural resources or climate change related. Our objective is to analyze landscape changes in the last 30 years using free available satellite data and identify possible influences on the degradation of permafrost in the study area. We used Surface Reflectance images from Landsat archive between 1985 and 2019. For each year, normalized indices were derived, illustrating consistency of green vegetation, as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and vegetation moisture, Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI). From MODIS data archive we used land surface temperature (LST), between 2000 and 2019. Moreover, the Global Surface Water dataset which contains maps with the spatial and temporal distribution of permanent and seasonal surface water from 1984 to 2018 was used. These data were aggregated to yearly mean (i.e. NDVI, NDMI, LST) or yearly sum (surface water), for the entire Pechora region. The results reveal a significant increase in NDVI mean. This "greening" of the tundra landscape, especially the southern tundra, between 1985 and 2019 has also been highlighted in other studies in the Arctic. Similarly, NDMI shows a slight increase of vegetation moisture in this area in the last three decades. Vegetation dynamics in the last 20 years is in accordance with LST evolution, showing an increase especially in the August mean temperature, more significant after 2011. From the analysis of the spatio-temporal changes of the water surfaces, a significant increase in seasonal water can be observed after 1997, and a relatively stable trend of permanent waters, with minimum values in 1999, 2003 and 2012. In the same time, an increase in the active layer thickness in the last 20 years of measurements in a site located in the study area has been documented. We conclude that Pechora Region experienced significant landscape changes in the last 30 years, our results showed mostly positive changes on vegetation consistency and moisture, and a high spatial variability of surface water.AcknowledgementThis work is funded for WUT by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CCDI-UEFISCDI, project number ERANET-RUS-PLUS-SODEEP, within PNCD III in the frame of ERA-Net plus Russia, TSU is supported by MOSC RF # 14.587.21.0048(RFMEFI58718X0048), AWI and HZG are supported by BMBF (Grant no. 01DJ18016A and 01DJ18016B).

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are known to suffer from biases in the simulation of atmospheric blocking, and this study provides an assessment of how blocking is represented by the latest generation of GCMs. It is evaluated (i) how historical CMIP6 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) simulations perform compared to CMIP5 simulations, and (ii) how horizontal model resolution affects the simulation of blocking in the CMIP6-HighResMIP (PRIMAVERA) model ensemble, which is designed to address this type of question. Two blocking indices are used to evaluate the simulated mean blocking frequency and blocking persistence for the Euro-Atlantic and Pacific regions in winter and summer against the corresponding estimates from atmospheric reanalysis data. There is robust evidence that CMIP6 models simulate blocking frequency and persistence better than CMIP5 models in the Atlantic and Pacific and in winter and summer. This improvement is sizeable so that, for example, winter blocking frequency in the median CMIP5 model in a large Euro-Atlantic domain is underestimated by 32 % using the absolute geopotential height (AGP) blocking index, whereas the same number is 19 % for the median CMIP6 model. As for the sensitivity of simulated blocking to resolution, it is found that the resolution increase, from typically 100 km to 20 km grid spacing, in the PRIMAVERA models, which are not re-tuned at the higher resolutions, benefits the mean blocking frequency in the Atlantic in winter and summer, and in the Pacific in summer. Simulated blocking persistence, however, is not seen to improve with resolution. Our results are consistent with previous studies suggesting that resolution is one of a number of interacting factors necessary for an adequate simulation of blocking in GCMs. The improvements reported in this study hold promise for further reductions in blocking biases as model development continues.

Regional models used for downscaling the European climate usually include a relatively small area of the Atlantic Ocean and are uncoupled, with the SST used as lower boundary conditions much coarser than the mesh of the regional atmospheric model. Concerns thus arise about the proper representation of the oceanic influence and the role of air-sea coupling in such experiments. A complex orography and the exposure to different air and ocean masses make the Iberian Peninsula (IP) an ideal test case for exploring the impact of including explicitly the North Atlantic in the regional domain and the added value that coupling brings to regional climate modeling. To this end, the regionally-coupled model ROM and its atmospheric component, the regional atmospheric model REMO are used in a set of coupled and uncoupled experiments forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and by the global climate model MPI-ESM. The atmospheric domain is the same in all simulations and includes the North Atlantic and the ocean component is global and eddy permitting. Results show that the impact of air-sea coupling on the IP winter biases can be traced back to the features of the simulated North Atlantic Ocean circulation. In summer, it is the air-sea interactions in the Mediterranean that exert the largest influence on the regional biases. Despite improvements introduced by the eddy-permitting ocean, it is suggested that a higher resolution could be needed for a correct simulation of the features of the large-scale atmospheric circulation that impact the climate of the IP.

Within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework, a high-resolution Regional Earth System Model (RESM) was used to understand the effects of various parameterizations of the attenuation of short-wave radiation (SWR) penetrating into the ocean. The RESM comprises of the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model and the Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model (MPIOM/HAMOCC) coupled via the OASIS coupler to the Regional atmosphere Model (REMO), and the Hydrological Discharge model (HD). Two runs of the RESM for the historical period 1950-2017 were performed. In the first run, the model utilized a simple light attenuation parameterization based on the Jerlov water types when the attenuation coefficient varies spatially depending on the water type but does not vary in time. In the second run, the feedback between the ocean and atmosphere through the marine ecosystem was implemented by using the parameterization of light attenuation coefficient as the function of not only water attenuation itself but also phytoplankton concentration, which was implemented in both the physical and biogeochemical model blocks. The obtained model results correspond well to the observed climatic characteristics. In the calculation with phytoplankton-dependent light attenuation parameterization, the average SST was lower than in the case of Jerlov-based parameterization. The greatest difference in SST (more than 1 °C) occurs in the spring and summer periods during the phytoplankton bloom. The SST differences in autumn and winter are less pronounced and do not exceed 0.2 °C and 0.6 °C, respectively. Also, during the period of intensive heating (spring and summer) the SWR in the ocean upper layers calculated by the feedback-based model run is more strongly absorbed in these layers and, as a result, a significant cooling of subsurface layers (25-200 m) occur (up to 1-1.5 ° С). The phytoplankton primary production and its dispersion in the feedback-based model run turned out to be higher, especially during the periods of winter and summer blooms, and the surface concentration of dissolved nitrates was lower than in the reference run (Jerlov-based parameterization) almost the whole year.The work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project 19-47-02015) and by the grant DST/INT/RUS/RSF/P-33/G of the Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of India.

Glacier retreat is a key indicator of climate variability and change. Karakoram-Himalaya (KH) glaciers are the source of several perennial rivers protecting water security of a large fraction of the global population. The region is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, hence the sensitivity of KH glaciers to regional microclimate, especially the impact of individual parameters forcing have been not quantified yet. The present study, using a coupled dynamical glacier-climate model simulation results, analyses the modelled interannual variability of mass-balance for the period 1989-2016. It is validated against available observations to quantify for the first time the sensitivity of the glaciers mass-balance to the individual forcing over KH. The snowfall variability emerges as the key factor, explaining ~60% of the variability of regional glacier mass balance. We provide insight into the recent divergent glacier response over the Karakoram Himalaya. The results underline the need for careful measurements and model representations of snowfall spatiotemporal variability, one of the HK's least-studied meteorological variables, to capture the large-scale, but region-specific, glacier changes at the third pole. Acknowledgement:The work was supported by Indian project no. DST/INT/RUS/RSF/P-33/G, and the Russian Science Foundation (Project 19-47-02015).

This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections.

International audience; The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) represents the zonally integrated stream function of meridional volume transport in the Atlantic Basin. The AMOC plays an important role in transporting heat meridionally in the climate system. Observations suggest a heat transport by the AMOC of 1.3 PW at 26°N-a latitude which is close to where the Atlantic northward heat transport is thought to reach its maximum. This shapes the climate of the North Atlantic region as we know it today. In recent years there has been significant progress both in our ability to observe the AMOC in nature and to simulate it in numerical models. Most previous modeling investigations of the AMOC and its impact on climate have relied on models with horizontal resolution that does not resolve ocean mesoscale eddies and the dynamics of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current system. As a result of recent increases in computing power, models are now being run that are able to represent mesoscale ocean dynamics and the circulation features that rely on them. The aim of this review is to describe new insights into the AMOC provided by high-resolution models. Furthermore, we will describe how high-resolution model simulations can help resolve outstanding challenges in our understanding of the AMOC.