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Diet composition is among the most important yet least understood dimensions of animal ecology. Inspired by the study of species abundance distributions (SADs), we tested for generalities in the structure of vertebrate diets by characterising them as dietary abundance distributions (DADs). We compiled data on 1167 population‐level diets, representing >500 species from six vertebrate classes, spanning all continents and oceans. DADs near‐universally (92.5%) followed a hollow‐curve shape, with scant support for other plausible rank‐abundance‐distribution shapes. This strong generality is inherently related to, yet incompletely explained by, the SADs of available food taxa. By quantifying dietary generalisation as the half‐saturation point of the cumulative distribution of dietary abundance (sp50, minimum number of foods required to account for 50% of diet), we found that vertebrate populations are surprisingly specialised: in most populations, fewer than three foods accounted for at least half the diet. Variation in sp50 was strongly associated with consumer type, with carnivores being more specialised than herbivores or omnivores. Other methodological (sampling method and effort, taxonomic resolution), biological (body mass, frugivory) and biogeographic (latitude) factors influenced sp50 to varying degrees. Future challenges include identifying the mechanisms underpinning the hollow‐curve DAD, its generality beyond vertebrates, and the biological determinants of dietary generalisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions between hosts and pathogens are dynamic at both ecological and evolutionary levels. In the resultant 'eco‐evolutionary dynamics' ecological and evolutionary processes affect each other. For example, the house finch Haemorhous mexicanus and its recently emerged pathogen, the bacterium Mycoplasma gallisepticum, form a system in which evidence suggests that changes in bacterial virulence through time enhance levels of host immunity in ways that drive the evolution of virulence in an arms race.We use data from two associated citizen science projects in order to determine whether this arms race has had any detectable effect at the population level in the north‐eastern United States.We used data from two citizen science projects, based on observations of birds at bird feeders, which provide information on the long‐term changes in sizes of aggregations of house finches (host population density), and the probabilities that these house finches have observable disease (disease prevalence).The initial emergence of M. gallisepticum caused a rapid halving of house finch densities; this was then followed by house finch populations remaining stable or slowly declining. Disease prevalence also decreased sharply after the initial emergence and has remained low, although with fluctuations through time. Surprisingly, while initially higher local disease prevalence was found at sites with higher local densities of finches, this relationship has reversed over time.The ability of a vertebrate host species, with a generation time of at least 1 year, to maintain stable populations in the face of evolved higher virulence of a bacterium, with generation times measurable in minutes, suggests that genetic changes in the host are insufficient to explain the observed population‐level patterns. We suggest that acquired immunity plays an important role in the observed interaction between house finches and M. gallisepticum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Neglected tropical diseases are responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in low-income populations. International efforts have reduced their global burden, but transmission is persistent and case-finding-based interventions rarely target asymptomatic individuals. Methods We develop a generic mathematical modeling framework for analyzing the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian sub-continent (VL), gambiense sleeping sickness (gHAT), and Chagas disease and use it to assess the possible contribution of asymptomatics who later develop disease (pre-symptomatics) and those who do not (non-symptomatics) to the maintenance of infection. Plausible interventions, including active screening, vector control, and reduced time to detection, are simulated for the three diseases. Results We found that the high asymptomatic contribution to transmission for Chagas and gHAT and the apparently high basic reproductive number of VL may undermine long-term control. However, the ability to treat some asymptomatics for Chagas and gHAT should make them more controllable, albeit over relatively long time periods due to the slow dynamics of these diseases. For VL, the toxicity of available therapeutics means the asymptomatic population cannot currently be treated, but combining treatment of symptomatics and vector control could yield a quick reduction in transmission. Conclusions Despite the uncertainty in natural history, it appears there is already a relatively good toolbox of interventions to eliminate gHAT, and it is likely that Chagas will need improvements to diagnostics and their use to better target pre-symptomatics. The situation for VL is less clear, and model predictions could be improved by additional empirical data. However, interventions may have to improve to successfully eliminate this disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The population structure of social species has important consequences for both their demography and transmission of their pathogens. We develop a metapopulation model that tracks two key components of a species' social system: average group size and number of groups within a population. While the model is general, we parameterize it to mimic the dynamics of the Yellowstone wolf population and two associated pathogens: sarcoptic mange and canine distemper. In the initial absence of disease, we show that group size is mainly determined by the birth and death rates and the rates at which groups fission to form new groups. The total number of groups is determined by rates of fission and fusion, as well as environmental resources and rates of intergroup aggression. Incorporating pathogens into the models reduces the size of the host population, predominantly by reducing the number of social groups. Average group size responds in more subtle ways: infected groups decrease in size, but uninfected groups may increase when disease reduces the number of groups and thereby reduces intraspecific aggression. Our modeling approach allows for easy calculation of prevalence at multiple scales (within group, across groups, and population level), illustrating that aggregate population-level prevalence can be misleading for group-living species. The model structure is general, can be applied to other social species, and allows for a dynamic assessment of how pathogens can affect social structure and vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Immune responses to vaccination are heterogeneous between individuals; the same vaccine that provides protection in one circumstance may be ineffective in another. One factor that could influence the response to vaccination is concurrent or prior infection with unrelated parasites. Here, we review both the experimental and epidemiological literature on parasite-vaccine interactions, and present a meta-analysis of the published data. In total, our review returned 101 relevant articles, 50 of which met criteria for meta-analysis. Parasite factors potentially affecting vaccination include the type of parasite involved, the stage of infection, and the timing of infection relative to vaccination. Vaccine factors affecting likelihood of interference by parasites include vaccine formulation, route of administration, and the type of immune response required to provide protection against the target antigen. Our meta-analysis of these data show three key things: (1) parasite infections at the time of vaccination result in worse immunisation outcomes, (2) chronic helminth infections are more likely to negatively impact immunisation than acute helminth infections, and (3) thymus-dependent vaccines are more susceptible to parasite interference than thymus-independent vaccines. Our findings highlight the importance of considering and mitigating parasite infections: by taking parasites into account, it should be possible to more effectively immunise individuals and populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of large reserves has been long maintained in the scientific literature, often leading to dismissal of the conservation potential of small reserves. However, over half the global protected‐area inventory is composed of protected areas that are <100 ha, and the median size of added protected area is decreasing. Studies of the conservation value of small reserves and fragments of natural area are relatively uncommon in the literature. We reviewed SCOPUS and WOK for studies on small reserve and fragment contributions to biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services, and fifty‐eight taxon‐specific studies were included in the review. Small reserves harbored substantial portions (upward of 50%) of regional species diversity for many taxa (birds, plants, amphibians, and small mammals) and even some endemic, specialist bird species. Unfortunately, small reserves and fragments almost always harbored more generalist and exotic species than large reserves. Community composition depended on habitat quality, surrounding land use (agricultural vs. urban), and reserve and fragment size, which presents opportunities for management and improvement. Small reserves also provided ecosystem services, such as pollination and biological pest control, and cultural services, such as recreation and improved human health. Limitations associated with small reserves, such as extinction debt and support of area‐sensitive species, necessitate a complement of larger reserves. However, we argue that small reserves can make viable and significant contributions to conservation goals directly as habitat and indirectly by increasing landscape connectivity and quality to the benefit of large reserves. To effectively conserve biodiversity for future generations in landscapes fragmented by human development, small reserves and fragments must be included in conservation planning. Article impact statement: Small reserves make meaningful contributions to biodiversity conservation and provisioning of ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Pathogens pose serious threats to human health, agricultural investment, and biodiversity conservation through the emergence of zoonoses, spillover to domestic livestock, and epizootic outbreaks. As such, wildlife managers are often tasked with mitigating the negative effects of disease. Yet, parasites form a major component of biodiversity that often persist. This is due to logistical challenges of implementing management strategies and to insufficient understanding of host–parasite dynamics. We advocate for an inclusive understanding of molecular diversity in driving parasite infection and variable host disease states in wildlife systems. More specifically, we examine the roles of genetic, epigenetic, and commensal microbial variation in disease pathogenesis. These include mechanisms underlying parasite virulence and host resistance and tolerance, and the development, regulation, and parasite subversion of immune pathways, among other processes. Case studies of devil facial tumor disease in Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) and chytridiomycosis in globally distributed amphibians exemplify the broad range of questions that can be addressed by examining different facets of molecular diversity. For particularly complex systems, integrative molecular analyses present a promising frontier that can provide critical insights necessary to elucidate disease dynamics operating across scales. These insights enable more accurate risk assessment, reconstruction of transmission pathways, discernment of optimal intervention strategies, and development of more effective and ecologically sound treatments that minimize damage to the host population and environment. Such measures are crucial when mitigating threats posed by wildlife disease to humans, domestic animals, and species of conservation concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article informs that investments to prevent tropical deforestation and to limit wildlife trade will protect against future zoonosis outbreaks. It mentions that clear link between deforestation and virus emergence such as COVID-19 pandemic suggests that a major effort to retain intact forest cover would have a large return on investment even if its only benefit was to reduce virus emergence events.

As biodiversity declineswith anthropogenic land-use change, it is increasingly important to understand how changing biodiversity affects infectious disease risk. The dilution effect hypothesis, which points to decreases in biodiversity as critical to an increase in infection risk, has received considerable attention due to the allure of a win-win scenario for conservation and human well-being. Yet some empirical data suggest that the dilution effect is not a generalizable phenomenon.We explore the response of pathogen transmission dynamics to changes in biodiversity that are driven by habitat loss using an allometrically scaled multi-host model.With this model, we show that declining habitat, and thus declining biodiversity, can lead to either increasing or decreasing infectious-disease risk, measured as endemic prevalence. Whether larger habitats, and thus greater biodiversity, lead to a decrease (dilution effect) or increase (amplification effect) in infection prevalence depends upon the pathogen transmission mode and how host competence scales with body size. Dilution effects were detected for most frequency-transmitted pathogens and amplification effects were detected for density-dependent pathogens. Amplification effects were also observed over a particular range of habitat loss in frequency-dependent pathogens when we assumed that host competence was greatest in large-bodied species. By contrast, only amplification effects were observed for density-dependent pathogens; host competency only affected the magnitude of the effect. These models can be used to guide future empirical studies of biodiversity-disease relationships across gradients of habitat loss. The type of transmission, the relationship between host competence and community assembly, the identity of hosts con- tributing to transmission, and how transmission scales with area are essential factors to consider when elucidating the mechanisms driving disease risk in shrinking habitat. This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and on-demand animal population counts are the holy grail for wildlife conservation organizations throughout the world because they enable fast and responsive adaptive management policies. While the collection of image data from camera traps, satellites, and manned or unmanned aircraft has advanced significantly, the detection and identification of animals within images remains a major bottleneck since counting is primarily conducted by dedicated enumerators or citizen scientists. Recent developments in the field of computer vision suggest a potential resolution to this issue through the use of rotation-invariant object descriptors combined with machine learning algorithms. Here we implement an algorithm to detect and count wildebeest from aerial images collected in the Serengeti National Park in 2009 as part of the biennial wildebeest count. We find that the per image error rates are greater than, but comparable to, two separate human counts. For the total count, the algorithm is more accurate than both manual counts, suggesting that human counters have a tendency to systematically over or under count images. While the accuracy of the algorithm is not yet at an acceptable level for fully automatic counts, our results show this method is a promising avenue for further research and we highlight specific areas where future research should focus in order to develop fast and accurate enumeration of aerial count data. If combined with a bespoke image collection protocol, this approach may yield a fully automated wildebeest count in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is extremely likely that the malaria vaccines currently in development will be used in conjunction with treated bednets and other forms of malaria control. The interaction of different intervention methods is at present poorly understood in a disease such as malaria where immunity is more complex than for other pathogens that have been successfully controlled by vaccination. Here we develop a general mathematical model of malaria transmission to examine the interaction between vaccination and bednets. Counterintuitively, we find that the frailty ofmalaria immunity will potentially cause both synergistic and antagonistic interactions between vaccination and the use of bednets. We explore the conditions that create these tensions, and outline strategies that minimize their detrimental impact. Our analysis specifically considers the three leading vaccine classes currently in development: preerythrocytic (PEV), blood stage (BSV), and transmission blocking (TBV). We find that the combination of BSV with treated bednets can lead to increased morbidity with no added value in terms of elimination; the interaction is clearly antagonistic. In contrast, there is strong synergy between PEV and treated bednets that may facilitate elimination, although transient stages are likely to increase morbidity. The combination of TBV with treated bednets is synergistic, lowering both morbidity and elimination thresholds. Our results suggest that vaccines will not provide a straightforward solution to malaria control, and that future programs need to consider the synergistic and antagonistic interactions between vaccines and treated bednets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing West African Ebola epidemic highlights a recurring trend in the zoonotic emergence of virulent pathogens likely to come from bat reservoirs that has caused epidemiologists to ask ‘Are bats special reservoirs for emerging zoonotic pathogens?’ We collate evidence from the past decade to delineate mitochondrial mechanisms of bat physiology that have evolved to mitigate oxidative stress incurred during metabolically costly activities such as flight. We further describe how such mechanisms might have generated pleiotropic effects responsible for tumor mitigation and pathogen control in bat hosts. These synergisms may enable ‘special’ tolerance of intracellular pathogens in bat hosts; paradoxically, this may leave them more susceptible to immunopathological morbidity when attempting to clear extracellular infections such as ‘white-nose syndrome’ (WNS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do stress hormones, such as corticosterone, enhance bird susceptibility to mosquitoes in ways that enhance rates of co-infection? Does this then enhance pathogen emergence? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to alter the dynamics of host-parasite systems globally. One key element in developing predictive models for these impacts is the life cycle of the parasite. It is, for example, commonly assumed that parasites with an indirect life cycle would be more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than parasites with a direct life cycle due to the greater chance that at least one of their obligate host species will go extinct. Here, we challenge this notion by contrasting parasitic nematodes with a direct life cycle against those with an indirect life cycle. Specifically, we suggest that behavioral thermoregulation by the intermediate host may buffer the larvae of indirectly transmitted parasites against temperature extremes, and hence climate warming. We term this the 'shelter effect'. Formalizing each life cycle in a comprehensive model reveals a fitness advantage for the direct life cycle over the indirect life cycle at low temperatures, but the shelter effect reverses this advantage at high temperatures. When examined for seasonal environments, the models suggest that climate warming may in some regions create a temporal niche in mid-summer that excludes parasites with a direct life cycle, but allows parasites with an indirect life cycle to persist. These patterns are amplified if parasite larvae are able to manipulate their intermediate host to increase ingestion probability by definite hosts. Furthermore, our results suggest that exploiting the benefits of host sheltering may have aided the evolution of indirect life cycles. Our modeling framework utilizes the Metabolic Theory of Ecology to synthesize the complexities of host behavioral thermoregulation and its impacts on various temperature-dependent parasite life history components in a single measure of fitness, R0. It allows quantitative predictions of climate change impacts, and is easily generalized to many host-parasite systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Black Caiman (Melanosuchus niger) experienced a dramatic population decline in the mid-20th century, becoming extinct or locally rare over most of its range due to habitat destruction and the commercial value of its hide. As the success and re-establishment of the species is now dependent on conservation efforts throughout the Amazon basin, Black Caimans require continuous monitoring despite extensive current legal protection. Although such efforts have mitigated the threat of human harvesting, a key issue facing the species today is ecological competition from sympatric Spectacled Caimans (Caiman crocodilus). In this study, we investigated this inferred competition by detailing the dietary overlap between Black Caimans and Spectacled Caimans in the Pacaya Samiria National Reserve in 2009. Using an adaptation of the hose-Heimlich technique, we collected and then compared the stomach contents of several individuals of each species. We found that although the proportions of prey items in their stomach contents varied seasonally, die dietary overlap between the two species remained high, suggesting intense competition for food resources. In addition to seasonal changes, the diet composition of Black Caimans also shifted ontogenetically. Young Black Caimans primarily ate insects and crustaceans, whereas larger individuals mostly preyed on fish, reducing intraspecific competition between crocodilian adults and young. Our findings suggest that Spectacled Caimans will continue to hinder the recovery of the Black Caiman population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vector-borne and parasitic diseases are drivers of the latitudinal gradient in income, and the burden of these diseases is predicted to rise as biodiversity falls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing number of zoonotic diseases spilling over from a range of wild animal species represents a particular concern for public health, especially in light of the current dramatic trend of biodiversity loss. To understand the ecology of these multi-host pathogens and their response to environmental degradation and species extinctions, it is necessary to develop a theoretical framework that takes into account realistic community assemblages. Here, we present a multi-host species epidemiological model that includes empirically determined patterns of diversity and composition derived from community ecology studies.We use this framework to study the interaction between wildlife diversity and directly transmitted pathogen dynamics. First, we demonstrate that variability in community composition does not affect significantly the intensity of pathogen transmission. We also show that the consequences of community diversity can differentially impact the prevalence of pathogens and the number of infectious individuals. Finally, we show that ecological interactions among host species have a weaker influence on pathogen circulation than inter-species transmission rates. We conclude that integration of a community perspective to study wildlife pathogens is crucial, especially in the context of understanding and predicting infectious disease emergence events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many pathogens and parasites are transmitted through hosts that differ in species, sex, genotype, or immune status. In addition, virulence (here defined as disease-induced mortality) and transmission can vary during the infectious period within hosts of different state. Most models of virulence evolution assume that transmission and virulence are constant over the infectious period and that the host population is homogenous. Here, we examine a multispecies susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model where transmission occurs within and between species, and transmission and virulence varied during the infectious period. This allows us to understand virulence evolution in a broader range of situations that characterize many emerging diseases. Because emerging pathogens are by definition new to their host populations, they should be expected to rapidly adapt after emergence. We illustrate these evolutionary effects using the framework of adaptive dynamics to examine how virulence evolves after emergence in response to the relative strength of selection on pathogen fitness and mutational variance for virulence. We illustrate the role of evolution by simulating adaptive walks to an evolutionarily stable virulence. We found that the magnitude of between-species transmission and the relative timing of transmission and mortality across species were of primary importance for determining the evolutionarily stable virulence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors reflect on aspects of biodiversity conservation. They mention the necessity conservation professionals to set strategies that are naturally designed to be achievable. The authors state that need to render eminent regards for the most significant threat, which is global climate change. They also mention the role of advocating organizations to familiarizing the community with the value of nature to humans.

The notion that climate change will generally increase human and wildlife diseases has garnered considerable public attention, but remains controversial and seems inconsistent with the expectation that climate change will also cause parasite extinctions. In this review, we highlight the frontiers in climate change–infectious disease research by reviewing knowledge gaps that make this controversy difficult to resolve. We suggest that forecasts of climate-change impacts on disease can be improved by more interdisciplinary collaborations, better linking of data and models, addressing confounding variables and context dependencies, and applying metabolic theory to host–parasite systems with consideration of community-level interactions and functional traits. Finally, although we emphasize host–parasite interactions, we also highlight the applicability of these points to climate-change effects on species interactions in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a susceptibles-exposed-infectives (SEI)model to analyze the effects of seasonality on epidemics, mainly of rabies, in a wide range of wildlife species. Model parameters are cast as simple allometric functions of host body size. Via nonlinear analysis, we investigate the dynamical behavior of the disease for different levels of seasonality in the transmission rate and for different values of the pathogen basic reproduction number (R0) over a broad range of body sizes. While the unforced SEI model exhibits long-term epizootic cycles only for large values of R0, the seasonal model exhibits multiyear periodicity for small values of R0. The oscillation period predicted by the seasonal model is consistent with those observed in the field for different host species. These conclusions are not affected by alternative assumptions for the shape of seasonality or for the parameters that exhibit seasonal variations. However, the introduction of host immunity (which occurs for rabies in some species and is typical of many other wildlife diseases) significantly modifies the epidemic dynamics; in this case, multiyear cycling requires a large level of seasonal forcing. Our analysis suggests that the explicit inclusion of periodic forcing in models of wildlife disease may be crucial to correctly describe the epidemics of wildlife that live in strongly seasonal environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parasitism is the most common animal lifestyle, yet food webs rarely include parasites. The few earlier studies have indicated that including parasites leads to obvious increases in species richness, number of links, and food chain length. A less obvious result was that adding parasites slightly reduced connectance, a key metric considered to affect food web stability. However, reported reductions in connectance after the addition of parasites resulted from an inappropriate calculation. Two alternative corrective approaches applied to four published studies yield an opposite result: parasites increase connectance, sometimes dramatically. In addition, we find that parasites can greatly affect other food web statistics, such as nestedness (asymmetry of interactions), chain length, and linkage density. Furthermore, whereas most food webs find that top trophic levels are least vulnerable to natural enemies, the inclusion of parasites revealed that mid-trophic levels, not low trophic levels, suffered the highest vulnerability to natural enemies. These results show that food webs are very incomplete without parasites. Most notably, recognition of parasite links may have important consequences for ecosystem stability because they can increase connectance and nestedness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historically, the role of parasites in ecosystem functioning has been considered trivial because a cursory examination reveals that their relative biomass is low compared with that of other trophic groups. However there is increasing evidence that parasite-mediated effects could be significant: they shape host population dynamics, alter interspecific competition, influence energy flow and appear to be important drivers of biodiversity. Indeed they influence a range of ecosystem functions and have a major effect on the structure of some food webs. Here, we consider the bottom-up and top-down processes of how parasitism influences ecosystem functioning and show that there is evidence that parasites are important for biodiversity and production; thus, we consider a healthy system to be one that is rich in parasite species. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract Many pathogens and parasites attack multiple host species, so their ability to invade a host community can depend on host community composition. We present a graphical isocline framework for studying disease establishment in systems with two host species, based on treating host species as resources. The isocline approach provides a natural generalization to multi-host systems of two related concepts in disease ecology – the basic reproductive rate of a parasite, and threshold host density. Qualitative isocline shape characterizes the threshold community configurations that permit parasite establishment. In general, isocline shape reflects the relative forces of inter- and intraspecific transmission of shared parasites. We discuss the qualitative implications of parasite isocline shape for issues of mounting concern in conservation ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Looks at the correlation between the growth of civilization and the establishment of disease throughout human history. Microparasites versus macroparasites; The basic reproductive ratio; Thresholds for establishment of a disease; Early human populations; The first cities; Diseases in the New World; Europe from the 1500s; Vaccination; Infectious diseases in the 1990s.

An introduction to the theme issue that includes papers that identify how, where and why infectious diseases in wildlife emerge, while also addressing their possible conservation impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) set the elimination of Chagas disease intradomiciliary vectorial transmission as a goal by 2020. After a decade, some progress has been made, but the new 2021–2030 WHO roadmap has set even more ambitious targets. Innovative and robust modelling methods are required to monitor progress towards these goals. We present a modelling pipeline using local seroprevalence data to obtain national disease burden estimates by disease stage. Firstly, local seroprevalence information is used to estimate spatio-temporal trends in the Force-of-Infection (FoI). FoI estimates are then used to predict such trends across larger and fine-scale geographical areas. Finally, predicted FoI values are used to estimate disease burden based on a disease progression model. Using Colombia as a case study, we estimated that the number of infected people would reach 506 000 (95% credible interval (CrI) = 395 000–648 000) in 2020 with a 1.0% (95%CrI = 0.8–1.3%) prevalence in the general population and 2400 (95%CrI = 1900–3400) deaths (approx. 0.5% of those infected). The interplay between a decrease in infection exposure (FoI and relative proportion of acute cases) was overcompensated by a large increase in population size and gradual population ageing, leading to an increase in the absolute number of Chagas disease cases over time. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This could then be combined with reforms to risk assessments that incorporate the valuation of spillover and loss of forest-associated health co-benefits for forest conversion agricultural proposals (IPBES, 2020). Spillover of novel pathogens from wildlife to people, such as the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, is increasing and this trend is most strongly associated with tropical deforestation driven by agricultural expansion. COVID-Clarity demands unification of health and environmental policy. [Extracted from the article]

Subsistence hunting presents a conservation challenge by which biodiversity preservation must be balanced with safeguarding of human livelihoods. Globally, subsistence hunting threatens primate populations, including Madagascar's endemic lemurs. We used population viability analysis to assess the sustainability of lemur hunting in Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We identified trends in seasonal hunting of 11 Makira lemur species from household interview data, estimated local lemur densities in populations adjacent to focal villages via transect surveys, and quantified extinction vulnerability for these populations based on species‐specific demographic parameters and empirically derived hunting rates. We compared stage‐based Lefkovitch with periodic Leslie matrices to evaluate the impact of regional dispersal on persistence trajectories and explored the consequences of perturbations to the timing of peak hunting relative to the lemur birth pulse, under assumptions of density‐dependent reproductive compensation. Lemur hunting peaked during the fruit‐abundant wet season (March–June). Estimated local lemur densities were roughly inverse to body size across our study area. Life‐history modeling indicated that hunting most severely threatened the species with the largest bodies (i.e., Hapalemur occidentalis, Avahi laniger, Daubentonia madagascariensis, and Indri indi), characterized by late‐age reproductive onsets and long interbirth intervals. In model simulations, lemur dispersal within a regional metapopulation buffered extinction threats when a majority of local sites supported growth rates above the replacement level but drove regional extirpations when most local sites were overharvested. Hunt simulations were most detrimental when timed to overlap lemur births (a reality for D. madagascariensis and I. indri). In sum, Makira lemurs were overharvested. Regional extirpations, which may contribute to broad‐scale extinctions, will be likely if current hunting rates persist. Cessation of anthropogenic lemur harvest is a conservation priority, and development programs are needed to help communities switch from wildlife consumption to domestic protein alternatives. Article impact statement: Lemur hunting will yield regional extirpations if continued unabated; domestic proteins are needed to mitigate human reliance on wild food. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, the authors reflect on the article by K. P. Paaijmans and colleagues concerning the effects of climate change on malaria risk. They indicate the authors' findings that diurnal fluctuations in temperature can modify the external incubation period of the parasite, in relation to estimates based on the coarser temporal resolution of daily mean temperature. They emphasize that the authors' work underlines the need to understand malaria biology and its interaction with climate.

This article informs that three species of horseshoe bats have now been officially recorded as the natural reservoir host of the coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome. A key step in determining the threat imposed by new pathogens is identifying the route along which they are transmitted from their reservoir to new hosts such as domestic livestock or humans. In the case of pathogens that use bats as reservoirs, a common route seems likely. Bats' feeding habits are constrained by the aerodynamics of flight, so they can not ingest huge amounts of food. Yet many bats are frugivorous, that is, they meet their energy requirements by ingesting fruits. The animal pens of the pig farms where the Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia was first reported were littered with partially digested fruits that were regurgitated from bats. Similar observations were reported at the site of the Hendra virus outbreak in Queensland, Australia. In Bangladesh, the Nipah virus has been shown to be transmitted directly from bats to humans. There, during the fruiting season, young boys climb trees to pick fruit.

A letter to the editor is presented in response to comments made on the article "Bats are Natural Reservoirs of SARS-Like Coronaviruses" by W. Li and others, published in the October 28, 2005, issue of the "News Focus."

Presents a letter to the editor related to Dow Jones Shares.

We know much about pathogen evolution and the emergence of new disease strains, but less about host resistance and how it is signaled to other individuals and subsequently maintained. The cline in frequency of black-coated wolves (Canis lupus) across North America is hypothesized to result from a relationship with canine distemper virus (CDV) outbreaks. We tested this hypothesis using cross-sectional data from wolf populations across North America that vary in the prevalence of CDV and the allele that makes coats black, longitudinal data from Yellowstone National Park, and modeling. We found that the frequency of CDV outbreaks generates fluctuating selection that results in heterozygote advantage that in turn affects the frequency of the black allele, optimal mating behavior, and black wolf cline across the continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chagas disease is a long-lasting disease with a prolonged asymptomatic period. Cumulative indices of infection such as prevalence do not shed light on the current epidemiological situation, as they integrate infection over long periods. Instead, metrics such as the Force-of-Infection (FoI) provide information about the rate at which susceptible people become infected and permit sharper inference about temporal changes in infection rates. FoI is estimated by fitting (catalytic) models to available age-stratified serological (ground-truth) data. Predictive FoI modelling frameworks are then used to understand spatial and temporal trends indicative of heterogeneity in transmission and changes effected by control interventions. Ideally, these frameworks should be able to propagate uncertainty and handle spatiotemporal issues. Methodology/principal findings: We compare three methods in their ability to propagate uncertainty and provide reliable estimates of FoI for Chagas disease in Colombia as a case study: two Machine Learning (ML) methods (Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Random Forest (RF)), and a Linear Model (LM) framework that we had developed previously. Our analyses show consistent results between the three modelling methods under scrutiny. The predictors (explanatory variables) selected, as well as the location of the most uncertain FoI values, were coherent across frameworks. RF was faster than BRT and LM, and provided estimates with fewer extreme values when extrapolating to areas where no ground-truth data were available. However, BRT and RF were less efficient at propagating uncertainty. Conclusions/significance: The choice of FoI predictive models will depend on the objectives of the analysis. ML methods will help characterise the mean behaviour of the estimates, while LM will provide insight into the uncertainty surrounding such estimates. Our approach can be extended to the modelling of FoI patterns in other Chagas disease-endemic countries and to other infectious diseases for which serosurveys are regularly conducted for surveillance. Author summary: Metrics such as the per susceptible rate of infection acquisition (Force-of-Infection) are crucial to understand the current epidemiological situation and the impact of control interventions for long-lasting diseases in which the infection event might have occurred many years previously, such as Chagas disease. FoI values are estimated from serological age profiles, often obtained in a few locations. However, when using predictive models to estimate the FoI over time and space (including areas where serosurveys had not been conducted), methods able to handle and propagate uncertainty must be implemented; otherwise, overconfident predictions may be obtained. Although Machine Learning (ML) methods are powerful tools, they may not be able to entirely handle this challenge. Therefore, the use of ML must be considered in relation to the aims of the analyses. ML will be more relevant to characterise the central trends of the estimates while Linear Models will help identify areas where further serosurveys should be conducted to improve the reliability of the predictions. Our approaches can be used to generate FoI predictions in other Chagas disease-endemic countries as well as in other diseases for which serological surveillance data are collected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore pathogen virulence evolution during the spatial expansion of an infectious disease epidemic in the presence of a novel host movement trade-off, using a simple, spatially explicit mathematical model. This work is motivated by empirical observations of the Mycoplasma gallisepticum invasion into North American house finch (Haemorhous mexicanus) populations; however, our results likely have important applications to other emerging infectious diseases in mobile hosts. We assume that infection reduces host movement and survival and that across pathogen strains the severity of these reductions increases with pathogen infectiousness. Assuming these trade-offs between pathogen virulence (host mortality), pathogen transmission, and host movement, we find that pathogen virulence levels near the epidemic front (that maximize wave speed) are lower than those that have a short-term growth rate advantage or that ultimately prevail (i.e., are evolutionarily stable) near the epicenter and where infection becomes endemic (i.e., that maximize the pathogen basic reproductive ratio). We predict that, under these trade-offs, less virulent pathogen strains will dominate the periphery of an epidemic and that more virulent strains will increase in frequency after invasion where disease is endemic. These results have important implications for observing and interpreting spatiotemporal epidemic data and may help explain transient virulence dynamics of emerging infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We captured, ectoparasite-combed, and blood-sampled cave-roosting Madagascan fruit bats (Eidolon dupreanum) and tree-roosting Madagascan flying foxes (Pteropus rufus) in four single-species roosts within a sympatric geographic foraging range for these species in central Madagascar. We describe infection with novel Bartonella spp. in sampled Eidolon dupreanum and associated bat flies (Cyclopodia dubia), which nest close to or within major known Bartonella lineages; simultaneously, we report the absence of Bartonella spp. in Thaumapsylla sp. fleas collected from these same bats. This represents the first documented finding of Bartonella infection in these species of bat and bat fly, as well as a new geographic record for Thaumapsylla sp. We further relate the absence of both Bartonella spp. and ectoparasites in sympatrically sampled Pteropus rufus, thus suggestive of a potential role for bat flies in Bartonella spp. transmission. These findings shed light on transmission ecology of bat-borne Bartonella spp., recently demonstrated as a potentially zoonotic pathogen. Author Summary: Bartonella spp. are bacteria that inhabit the red blood cells of both human and animal hosts. Among humans, Bartonella spp. are known to cause several febrile illnesses, including Carrion's disease (Bartonella bacilliformis), trench fever (Bartonella quintana), and cat scratch fever (Bartonella henselae), all of which are transmitted via arthropod vectors—respectively sand flies, lice, and fleas. Bats are known to host multiple Bartonella spp., including some capable of infecting humans. Some bat species are also known to host obligate ectoparasites known as bat flies (Diptera: Hippoboscoidea), which also sometimes support Bartonella spp. infections. The role of bat flies and other bat ectoparasites as vectors for Bartonella spp. transmission has been suggested, but not fully explored. We demonstrate Bartonella spp. infection in one species of Madagascar fruit bat, which hosts bat flies, simultaneously with the absence of Bartonella in a fruit bat species of overlapping range that appears not to support these ectoparasites. In light of ongoing trends of zoonotic emergence of human diseases from bat reservoirs, further understanding of the transmission dynamics of bat-borne pathogens is paramount. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We captured, ectoparasite-combed, and blood-sampled cave-roosting Madagascan fruit bats (Eidolon dupreanum) and tree-roosting Madagascan flying foxes (Pteropus rufus) in four single-species roosts within a sympatric geographic foraging range for these species in central Madagascar. We describe infection with novel Bartonella spp. in sampled Eidolon dupreanum and associated bat flies (Cyclopodia dubia), which nest close to or within major known Bartonella lineages; simultaneously, we report the absence of Bartonella spp. in Thaumapsylla sp. fleas collected from these same bats. This represents the first documented finding of Bartonella infection in these species of bat and bat fly, as well as a new geographic record for Thaumapsylla sp. We further relate the absence of both Bartonella spp. and ectoparasites in sympatrically sampled Pteropus rufus, thus suggestive of a potential role for bat flies in Bartonella spp. transmission. These findings shed light on transmission ecology of bat-borne Bartonella spp., recently demonstrated as a potentially zoonotic pathogen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Governments and NGOs worldwide aim to develop models of tourism that realize the economic, environmental, and cultural ideals of ecotourism. This is true in the national parks of the Northern Safari Circuit of Tanzania, which attract hundreds of thousands of tourists annually. To better understand what tourists to Tanzania were willing to pay for various attributes of their tour package, we used a linear mixed effects model to analyze what attributes of 72 tour packages from 32 tour operators contributed to the price of tour packages. We found that the number of days spent on tour, the number of days spent in the Serengeti, the type of accommodation (basic camping versus lodges or luxury tents), the mode of transport into the park (flying versus driving), and the inclusion of cultural tourism helped predict the price of a tour package. Our findings suggest that tour operators charge 92% more for a day in the Serengeti than other Northern Circuit attractions, but we do not examine what happens to the additional rent generated by the Serengeti. Additionally, the utility of cultural tourism in attracting foreign tourists presents both tremendous opportunities and potential challenges to efforts to realize culturally sensitive ecotourism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Catastrophic declines in African great ape populations due to disease outbreaks have been reported in recent years, yet we rarely hear of similar disease impacts for the more solitary Asian great apes, or for smaller primates. We used an age-structured model of different primate social systems to illustrate that interactions between social structure and demography create ‘dynamic constraints’ on the pathogens that can establish and persist in primate host species with different social systems. We showed that this varies by disease transmission mode. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) require high rates of transmissibility to persist within a primate population. In particular, for a unimale social system, STIs require extremely high rates of transmissibility for persistence, and remain at extremely low prevalence in small primates, but this is less constrained in longer-lived, larger-bodied primates. In contrast, aerosol transmitted infections (ATIs) spread and persist at high prevalence in medium and large primates with moderate transmissibility;, establishment and persistence in small-bodied primates require higher relative rates of transmissibility. Intragroup contact structure – the social network - creates different constraints for different transmission modes, and our model underscores the importance of intragroup contacts on infection prior to intergroup movement in a structured population. When alpha males dominate sexual encounters, the resulting disease transmission dynamics differ from when social interactions are dominated by mother-infant grooming events, for example. This has important repercussions for pathogen spread across populations. Our framework reveals essential social and demographic characteristics of primates that predispose them to different disease risks that will be important for disease management and conservation planning for protected primate populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Age-stratified serosurvey data are often used to understand spatiotemporal trends in disease incidence and exposure through estimating the Force-of-Infection (FoI). Typically, median or mean FoI estimates are used as the response variable in predictive models, often overlooking the uncertainty in estimated FoI values when fitting models and evaluating their predictive ability. To assess how this uncertainty impact predictions, we compared three approaches with three levels of uncertainty integration. We propose a performance indicator to assess how predictions reflect initial uncertainty.In Colombia, 76 serosurveys (1980-2014) conducted at municipality level provided age-stratified Chagas disease prevalence data. The yearly FoI was estimated at the serosurvey level using a time-varying catalytic model. Environmental, demographic and entomological predictors were used to fit and predict the FoI at municipality level from 1980 to 2010 across Colombia.A stratified bootstrap method was used to fit the models without temporal autocorrelation at the serosurvey level. The predictive ability of each model was evaluated to select the best-fit models within urban, rural and (Amerindian) indigenous settings. Model averaging, with the 10 best-fit models identified, was used to generate predictions.Our analysis shows a risk of overconfidence in model predictions when median estimates of FoI alone are used to fit and evaluate models, failing to account for uncertainty in FoI estimates. Our proposed methodology fully propagates uncertainty in the estimated FoI onto the generated predictions, providing realistic assessments of both central tendency and current uncertainty surrounding exposure to Chagas disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Parasites primarily affect food web structure through changes to diversity and complexity. However, compared to free-living species, their life-history traits lead to more complex feeding niches and altered motifs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A bacterial pathogen of wild songbirds evolved higher virulence following its emergence in two separate regions of the host range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildlife reintroductions select or treat individuals for good health with the expectation that these individuals will fare better than infected animals. However, these individuals, new to their environment, may also be particularly susceptible to circulating infections and this may result in high morbidity and mortality, potentially jeopardizing the goals of recovery. Here, using the reintroduction of the grey wolf (Canis lupus) into Yellowstone National Park as a case study, we address the question of how parasites invade a reintroduced population and consider the impact of these invasions on population performance. We find that several viral parasites rapidly invaded the population inside the park, likely via spillover from resident canid species, and we contrast these with the slower invasion of sarcoptic mange, caused by the mite Sarcoptes scabiei. The spatio-temporal patterns of mange invasion were largely consistent with patterns of host connectivity and density, and we demonstrate that the area of highest resource quality, supporting the greatest density of wolves, is also the region that appears most susceptible to repeated disease invasion and parasite-induced declines. The success of wolf reintroduction appears not to have been jeopardized by infectious disease, but now shows signs of regulation or limitation modulated by parasites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tree cover is a fundamental structural characteristic and driver of ecosystem processes in terrestrial ecosystems, and trees are a major global carbon (C) sink. Fire and herbivores have been hypothesized to play dominant roles in regulating trees in African savannas, but the evidence for this is conflicting. Moving up a trophic scale, the factors that regulate fire occurrence and herbivores, such as disease and predation, are poorly understood for any given ecosystem. We used a Bayesian statespace model to show that the wildebeest population irruption that followed disease (rinderpest) eradication in the Serengeti ecosystem of East Africa led to a widespread reduction in the extent of fire and an ongoing recovery of the tree population. This supports the hypothesis that disease has played a key role in the regulation of this ecosystem. We then link our state-space model with theoretical and empirical results quantifying the effects of grazing and fire on soil carbon to predict that this cascade may have led to important shifts in the size of pools of C stored in soil and biomass. Our results suggest that the dynamics of herbivores and fire are tightly coupled at landscape scales, that fire exerts clear top-down effects on tree density, and that disease outbreaks in dominant herbivores can lead to complex trophic cascades in savanna ecosystems. We propose that the long-term status of the Serengeti and other intensely grazed savannas as sources or sinks for C may be fundamentally linked to the control of disease outbreaks and poaching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Molecular-based approaches might be misleading for assessing the ‘potential importance’ of possible reservoirs for parasites unless used in conjunction with population dynamics and ecological studies that provide an understanding of the linkages between the enzootic transmission cycle (in wild animals) and that in domestic animals. Better understanding of ecological constraints on Leishmania transmission is needed to assess fully the passage of the parasite between its sandfly vector and different mammalian host species. We use a straightforward mathematical framework to illustrate that misuse of association patterns, as guidance for implementation of control measures, can in fact increase the endemism of leishmaniasis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Evaluating changes in range size of land bird species using Millenium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios reveals that land conversion, as well as climate change, will lead to the decline of many species, particularly those in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses research being done on hyperinfectivity in cholera. It references a study by D. M. Hartley et al published in the 2006 issue of "PLoS Medicine" journal. The study proposes an epidemiological model for the dynamics of cholera that explicitly incorporates a hyperinfectious stage of the pathogen Vibrio cholerae. It notes that the importance of sanitary conditions and clean water for cholera prevention and eradication has been known for a long time.

Cholera dynamics in endemic regions display regular seasonal cycles and pronounced interannual variability. We review here the current quantitative evidence for the influence of climate on cholera dynamics with reference to the early literature on the subject. We also briefly review the incipient status of mathematical models for cholera and argue that these models are important for understanding climatic influences in the context of the population dynamics of the disease. A better understanding of disease risk related to the environment should further underscore the need for changing the socioeconomic conditions conducive to cholera. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]