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For almost a century, unionists won a majority of seats in every election to Northern Ireland's regional parliament or assembly. That unbroken run came to an end in March 2017 when unionists became a minority in the Northern Ireland Assembly for the first time. Much scholarly analysis of this new dispensation characterises it as part of a long-term shift away from the binary politics of ethnonational division and majoritarianism as support grows for parties aligned with neither unionism nor nationalism. This paper offers an alternative analysis that emphasises the persistent importance of constitutionally related majorities. It argues that the emergence in 2017 of a non-unionist majority in the Assembly removed the last vestiges of a dominant party system that had endured in one form or another since the establishment of Northern Ireland. It marks the birth of a new party system, bringing about a much more fundamental shift in the dynamics of political competition than is generally understood. Rather than moving the politics of Northern Ireland beyond constitutional questions, it brings those questions to the forefront, with profound implications for the long-term relationship between Northern Ireland on one hand and the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain on the other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine the mediation exit option, which is one of the most important tactics available to any third party mediator. Design/methodology/approach - The paper analyzes a crucial intermediary channel between the Irish Republican Army (hereafter IRA) and the British Government utilizing unique material from the private papers of the intermediary, Brendan Duddy, including diaries that cover periods of intensive communication, extensive interviews with the intermediary and with participants in this communication on both the British Government and Irish Republican sides as well as recently released official papers from the UK National Archives relating to this communication. Findings - The study reveals how the intermediary channel was used in order to get information, how the third party and the primary parties traded in asymmetries of information, and how the intermediary utilized the information advantage to increase the credibility of his threats of termination. Research limitations/implications - The study outlines an avenue for further research on the termination dynamics of mediation. Practical implications - Understanding the conditions for successfully using the exit-option is vital for policy-makers, in particular for peace diplomacy efforts in other contexts than the Northern Ireland one. Originality/value - The paper challenges previous explanations for why threats by mediators to call off further mediation attempts are successful and argues that a mediator can use the parties' informational dependency on him in order to increase his leverage and push the parties towards settlement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]