Search

The Green Bank North Celestial Cap survey is one of the largest and most sensitive searches for pulsars and transient radio objects. Observations for the survey have finished; priorities have shifted toward long-term monitoring of its discoveries. In this study, we have developed a pipeline to handle large datasets of archival observations and connect them to recent, high-cadence observations taken using the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME) telescope. This pipeline handles data for 128 pulsars and has produced measurements of spin, positional, and orbital parameters that connect data over observation gaps as large as 2000 days. We have also measured glitches in the timing residuals for five of the pulsars included and proper motion for 19 sources (13 new). We include updates to orbital parameters for 19 pulsars, including 9 previously unpublished binaries. For two of these binaries, we provide updated measurements of post-Keplerian binary parameters, which result in much more precise estimates of the total masses of both systems. For PSR J0509+3801, the much improved measurement of the Einstein delay yields much improved mass measurements for the pulsar and its companion, 1.399(6)\Msun and 1.412(6)\Msun, respectively. For this system, we have also obtained a measurement of the orbital decay due to the emission of gravitational waves: $\dot{P}_{\rm B} = -1.37(7)\times10^{-12}$, which is in agreement with the rate predicted by general relativity for these masses., Comment: accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

Observations of pulsar scintillation are among the few astrophysical probes of very small-scale ($\lesssim$ au) phenomena in the interstellar medium (ISM). In particular, characterization of scintillation arcs, including their curvature and intensity distributions, can be related to interstellar turbulence and potentially over-pressurized plasma in local ISM inhomogeneities, such as supernova remnants, HII regions, and bow shocks. Here we present a survey of eight pulsars conducted at the Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Telescope (FAST), revealing a diverse range of scintillation arc characteristics at high sensitivity. These observations reveal more arcs than measured previously for our sample. At least nine arcs are observed toward B1929$+$10 at screen distances spanning $\sim 90\%$ of the pulsar's $361$ pc path-length to the observer. Four arcs are observed toward B0355$+$54, with one arc yielding a screen distance as close as $\sim10^5$ au ($<1$ pc) from either the pulsar or the observer. Several pulsars show highly truncated, low-curvature arcs that may be attributable to scattering near the pulsar. The scattering screen constraints are synthesized with continuum maps of the local ISM and other well-characterized pulsar scintillation arcs, yielding a three-dimensional view of the scattering media in context., Comment: 20 pages, 14 figures. Submitted to MNRAS and comments welcome. Interactive version of Figure 12 available at https://stella-ocker.github.io/scattering_ism3d_ocker2023

The Australian, Chinese, European, Indian, and North American pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations recently reported, at varying levels, evidence for the presence of a nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB). Given that each PTA made different choices in modeling their data, we perform a comparison of the GWB and individual pulsar noise parameters across the results reported from the PTAs that constitute the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA). We show that despite making different modeling choices, there is no significant difference in the GWB parameters that are measured by the different PTAs, agreeing within $1\sigma$. The pulsar noise parameters are also consistent between different PTAs for the majority of the pulsars included in these analyses. We bridge the differences in modeling choices by adopting a standardized noise model for all pulsars and PTAs, finding that under this model there is a reduction in the tension in the pulsar noise parameters. As part of this reanalysis, we "extended" each PTA's data set by adding extra pulsars that were not timed by that PTA. Under these extensions, we find better constraints on the GWB amplitude and a higher signal-to-noise ratio for the Hellings and Downs correlations. These extensions serve as a prelude to the benefits offered by a full combination of data across all pulsars in the IPTA, i.e., the IPTA's Data Release 3, which will involve not just adding in additional pulsars, but also including data from all three PTAs where any given pulsar is timed by more than as single PTA., Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, submitted to ApJ

The International Pulsar Timing Array 2nd data release is the combination of datasets from worldwide collaborations. In this study, we search for continuous waves: gravitational wave signals produced by individual supermassive black hole binaries in the local universe. We consider binaries on circular orbits and neglect the evolution of orbital frequency over the observational span. We find no evidence for such signals and set sky averaged 95% upper limits on their amplitude h 95 . The most sensitive frequency is 10nHz with h 95 = 9.1 10-15 . We achieved the best upper limit to date at low and high frequencies of the PTA band thanks to improved effective cadence of observations. In our analysis, we have taken into account the recently discovered common red noise process, which has an impact at low frequencies. We also find that the peculiar noise features present in some pulsars data must be taken into account to reduce the false alarm. We show that using custom noise models is essential in searching for continuous gravitational wave signals and setting the upper limit.

We searched for an isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background in the second data release of the International Pulsar Timing Array, a global collaboration synthesizing decadal-length pulsar-timing campaigns in North America, Europe, and Australia. In our reference search for a power law strain spectrum of the form $h_c = A(f/1\,\mathrm{yr}^{-1})^{\alpha}$, we found strong evidence for a spectrally-similar low-frequency stochastic process of amplitude $A = 3.8^{+6.3}_{-2.5}\times10^{-15}$ and spectral index $\alpha = -0.5 \pm 0.5$, where the uncertainties represent 95\% credible regions, using information from the auto- and cross-correlation terms between the pulsars in the array. For a spectral index of $\alpha = -2/3$, as expected from a population of inspiralling supermassive black hole binaries, the recovered amplitude is $A = 2.8^{+1.2}_{-0.8}\times10^{-15}$. Nonetheless, no significant evidence of the Hellings-Downs correlations that would indicate a gravitational-wave origin was found. We also analyzed the constituent data from the individual pulsar timing arrays in a consistent way, and clearly demonstrate that the combined international data set is more sensitive. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this combined data set produces comparable constraints to recent single-array data sets which have more data than the constituent parts of the combination. Future international data releases will deliver increased sensitivity to gravitational wave radiation, and significantly increase the detection probability., Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures, accepted in MNRAS

Stellar bow shocks are observed in a variety of interstellar environments and are shaped by the conditions of gas in the interstellar medium (ISM). In situ measurements of turbulent density fluctuations near stellar bow shocks are only achievable with a few observational probes, including H$\alpha$ emitting bow shocks and the Voyager Interstellar Mission (VIM). In this paper, we examine density variations around the Guitar Nebula, an H$\alpha$ bow shock associated with PSR B2224$+$65, in tandem with density variations probed by VIM near the boundary of the solar wind and ISM. High-resolution Hubble Space Telescope observations of the Guitar Nebula taken between 1994 and 2006 trace density variations over scales from 100s to 1000s of au, while VIM density measurements made with the Voyager 1 Plasma Wave System constrain variations from 1000s of meters to 10s of au. The power spectrum of density fluctuations constrains the amplitude of the turbulence wavenumber spectrum near the Guitar Nebula to ${\rm log}_{10}C_{\rm n}^2 = -0.8\pm0.2$ m$^{-20/3}$ and for the very local ISM probed by Voyager ${\rm log}_{10}C_{\rm n}^2 = -1.57\pm0.02$ m$^{-20/3}$. Spectral amplitudes obtained from multi-epoch observations of four other H$\alpha$ bow shocks also show significant enhancements in $C_{\rm n}^2$ from values that are considered typical for the diffuse, warm ionized medium, suggesting that density fluctuations near these bow shocks may be amplified by shock interactions with the surrounding medium, or by selection effects that favor H$\alpha$ emission from bow shocks embedded in denser media., Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures, accepted to ApJ

The Arecibo Observatory (AO) is a multidisciplinary research and education facility that is recognized worldwide as a leading facility in astronomy, planetary, and atmospheric and space sciences. AO's cornerstone research instrument was the 305-m William E. Gordon telescope. On December 1, 2020, the 305-m telescope collapsed and was irreparably damaged. In the three weeks following the collapse, AO's scientific and engineering staff and the AO users community initiated extensive discussions on the future of the observatory. The community is in overwhelming agreement that there is a need to build an enhanced, next-generation radar-radio telescope at the AO site. From these discussions, we established the set of science requirements the new facility should enable. These requirements can be summarized briefly as: 5 MW of continuous wave transmitter power at 2 - 6 GHz, 10 MW of peak transmitter power at 430 MHz (also at 220MHz under consideration), zenith angle coverage 0 to 48 deg, frequency coverage 0.2 to 30 GHz and increased Field-of-View. These requirements determine the unique specifications of the proposed new instrument. The telescope design concept we suggest consists of a compact array of fixed dishes on a tiltable, plate-like structure with a collecting area equivalent to a 300m dish. This concept, referred to as the Next Generation Arecibo Telescope (NGAT), meets all of the desired specifications and provides significant new science capabilities to all three research groups at AO. This whitepaper presents a sample of the wide variety of the science that can be achieved with the NGAT, the details of the telescope design concept and the need for the new telescope to be located at the AO site. We also discuss other AO science activities that interlock with the NGAT in the white paper., Comment: 82 pages (executive summary 10 pages), 21 figures, Arecibo observatory white paper (Updated with the complete author list and minor edits)

The regularity of pulsar emissions becomes apparent once we reference the pulses' times of arrivals to the inertial rest frame of the solar system. It follows that errors in the determination of Earth's position with respect to the solar-system barycenter can appear as a time-correlated bias in pulsar-timing residual time series, affecting the searches for low-frequency gravitational waves performed with pulsar timing arrays. Indeed, recent array datasets yield different gravitational-wave background upper limits and detection statistics when analyzed with different solar-system ephemerides. Crucially, the ephemerides do not generally provide usable error representations. In this article we describe the motivation, construction, and application of a physical model of solar-system ephemeris uncertainties, which focuses on the degrees of freedom (Jupiter's orbital elements) most relevant to gravitational-wave searches with pulsar timing arrays. This model, BayesEphem, was used to derive ephemeris-robust results in NANOGrav's 11-yr stochastic-background search, and it provides a foundation for future searches by NANOGrav and other consortia. The analysis and simulations reported here suggest that ephemeris modeling reduces the gravitational-wave sensitivity of the 11-yr dataset; and that this degeneracy will vanish with improved ephemerides and with the longer pulsar timing datasets that will become available in the near future., Comment: Fixed typo in author list. Code that supports all calculations and figures is available at github.com/nanograv/11yr_stochastic_analysis/tree/master/bayesephem

We search for extrasolar planets around millisecond pulsars using pulsar timing data and seek to determine the minimum detectable planetary masses as a function of orbital period. Using the 11-year data set from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav), we look for variations from our models of pulse arrival times due to the presence of exoplanets. No planets are detected around the millisecond pulsars in the NANOGrav 11-year data set, but taking into consideration the noise levels of each pulsar and the sampling rate of our observations, we develop limits that show we are sensitive to planetary masses as low as that of the moon. We analyzed potential planet periods, P, in the range 7 days < P < 2000 days, with somewhat smaller ranges for some binary pulsars. The planetary mass limit for our median-sensitivity pulsar within this period range is 1 M_moon (P / 100 days)^(-2/3)., Comment: Revised and accepted by ApJ Letters

The mergers of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) promise to be incredible sources of gravitational waves (GWs). While the oscillatory part of the merger gravitational waveform will be outside the frequency sensitivity range of pulsar timing arrays (PTAs), the non-oscillatory GW memory effect is detectable. Further, any burst of gravitational waves will produce GW memory, making memory a useful probe of unmodeled exotic sources and new physics. We searched the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) 11-year data set for GW memory. This dataset is sensitive to very low frequency GWs of $\sim3$ to $400$ nHz (periods of $\sim11$ yr $-$ $1$ mon). Finding no evidence for GWs, we placed limits on the strain amplitude of GW memory events during the observation period. We then used the strain upper limits to place limits on the rate of GW memory causing events. At a strain of $2.5\times10^{-14}$, corresponding to the median upper limit as a function of source sky position, we set a limit on the rate of GW memory events at $<0.4$ yr$^{-1}$. That strain corresponds to a SMBHB merger with reduced mass of $\eta M \sim 2\times10^{10}M_\odot$ and inclination of $\iota=\pi/3$ at a distance of 1 Gpc. As a test of our analysis, we analyzed the NANOGrav 9-year data set as well. This analysis found an anomolous signal, which does not appear in the 11-year data set. This signal is not a GW, and its origin remains unknown., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, submitted to ApJ

We have constructed a new timescale, TT(IPTA16), based on observations of radio pulsars presented in the first data release from the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA). We used two analysis techniques with independent estimates of the noise models for the pulsar observations and different algorithms for obtaining the pulsar timescale. The two analyses agree within the estimated uncertainties and both agree with TT(BIPM17), a post-corrected timescale produced by the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures (BIPM). We show that both methods could detect significant errors in TT(BIPM17) if they were present. We estimate the stability of the atomic clocks from which TT(BIPM17) is derived using observations of four rubidium fountain clocks at the US Naval Observatory. Comparing the power spectrum of TT(IPTA16) with that of these fountain clocks suggests that pulsar-based timescales are unlikely to contribute to the stability of the best timescales over the next decade, but they will remain a valuable independent check on atomic timescales. We also find that the stability of the pulsar-based timescale is likely to be limited by our knowledge of solar-system dynamics, and that errors in TT(BIPM17) will not be a limiting factor for the primary goal of the IPTA, which is to search for the signatures of nano-Hertz gravitational waves., Comment: accepted by MNRAS

An ensemble of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries should produce a stochastic background of very low frequency gravitational waves. This stochastic background is predicted to be a power law, with a spectral index of -2/3, and it should be detectable by a network of precisely timed millisecond pulsars, widely distributed on the sky. This paper reports a new "time slicing" analysis of the 11-year data release from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) using 34 millisecond pulsars. Methods to flag potential "false positive" signatures are developed, including techniques to identify responsible pulsars. Mitigation strategies are then presented. We demonstrate how an incorrect noise model can lead to spurious signals, and show how independently modeling noise across 30 Fourier components, spanning NANOGrav's frequency range, effectively diagnoses and absorbs the excess power in gravitational-wave searches. This results in a nominal, and expected, progression of our gravitational-wave statistics. Additionally we show that the first interstellar medium event in PSR J1713+0747 pollutes the common red noise process with low-spectral index noise, and use a tailored noise model to remove these effects., Comment: 14 pages, 13 figures, fixed typo in abstract of earlier version

In this paper, we describe the International Pulsar Timing Array second data release, which includes recent pulsar timing data obtained by three regional consortia: the European Pulsar Timing Array, the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves, and the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array. We analyse and where possible combine high-precision timing data for 65 millisecond pulsars which are regularly observed by these groups. A basic noise analysis, including the processes which are both correlated and uncorrelated in time, provides noise models and timing ephemerides for the pulsars. We find that the timing precisions of pulsars are generally improved compared to the previous data release, mainly due to the addition of new data in the combination. The main purpose of this work is to create the most up-to-date IPTA data release. These data are publicly available for searches for low-frequency gravitational waves and other pulsar science., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS and in review, 23 pages, 5 figures

The new field of gravitational wave astrophysics requires a growing pool of students and researchers with unique, interdisciplinary skill sets. It also offers an opportunity to build a diverse, inclusive astronomy community from the ground up. We describe the efforts used by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) NSF Physics Frontiers Center to foster such growth by involving students at all levels in low-frequency gravitational wave astrophysics with pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) and establishing collaboration policies that ensure broad participation by diverse groups. We describe and illustrate the impact of these techniques on our collaboration as a case study for other distributed collaborations., Comment: Submitted as a State of the Profession White Paper for the Astro2020 Decadal Survey (10 pages + cover and references, 6 figures)

Radio emission propagating over an Earth-pulsar line of sight provides a unique probe of the intervening ionized interstellar medium (ISM). Variations in the integrated electron column density along this line of sight, or dispersion measure (DM), have been observed since shortly after the discovery of pulsars. As early as 2006, frequency-dependent dispersion measures have been observed and attributed to several possible causes. Ray-path averaging over different effective light-cone volumes through the turbulent ISM contributes to this effect as will DM misestimation due to radio propagation across compact lensing structures such as those caused by "extreme scattering events". We present methods to assess the variations in frequency-dependent dispersion measures due to the turbulent ISM versus these compact lensing structures along the line of sight. We analyze recent Low-Frequency Array (LOFAR) observations of PSR J2219+4754 to test the underlying physical mechanism of the observed frequency-dependent DM. Previous analyses have indicated the presence of strong lensing due to compact overdensities halfway between the Earth and pulsar. Instead we find the frequency dependence of the DM timeseries for PSR J2219+4754 is consistent with being due solely to ISM turbulence and there is no evidence for any extreme scattering event or small-scale lensing structure. The data show possible deviations from a uniform turbulent medium, suggesting that there may be an enhanced scattering screen near one of the two ends of the line of sight. We present this analysis as an example of the power of low-frequency observations to distinguish the underlying mechanisms in frequency-dependent propagation effects., Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures, accepted by ApJ

The Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) is an X-ray astrophysics payload on the International Space Station. It enables unprecedented high-precision timing of millisecond pulsars without the pulse broadening and delays due to dispersion and scattering within the interstellar medium that plague radio timing. We present initial timing results from a year of data on the millisecond pulsars PSR B1937+21 and PSR J0218+4232, and nine months of data on PSR B1821-24. NICER time-of-arrival uncertainties for the three pulsars are consistent with theoretical lower bounds and simulations based on their pulse shape templates and average source and background photon count rates. To estimate timing stability, we use the $\sigma_z$ measure, which is based on the average of the cubic coefficients of polynomial fits to subsets of timing residuals. So far we are achieving timing stabilities $\sigma_z \approx 3 \times 10^{-14}$ for PSR B1937+21 and on the order of $10^{-12}$ for PSRs B1821$-$24 and J0218+4232. Within the span of our \textit{NICER} data we do not yet see the characteristic break point in the slope of $\sigma_z$; detection of such a break would indicate that further improvement in the cumulative root-mean-square (RMS) timing residual is limited by timing noise. We see this break point in our comparison radio data sets for PSR B1821-24 and PSR B1937+21 on time scales of $> 2$ years., Comment: 30 pages, 15 figures; accepted to ApJ

Observations indicate that nearly all galaxies contain supermassive black holes (SMBHs) at their centers. When galaxies merge, their component black holes form SMBH binaries (SMBHBs), which emit low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) that can be detected by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). We have searched the recently-released North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) 11-year data set for GWs from individual SMBHBs in circular orbits. As we did not find strong evidence for GWs in our data, we placed 95\% upper limits on the strength of GWs from such sources as a function of GW frequency and sky location. We placed a sky-averaged upper limit on the GW strain of $h_0 < 7.3(3) \times 10^{-15}$ at $f_\mathrm{gw}= 8$ nHz. We also developed a technique to determine the significance of a particular signal in each pulsar using ``dropout' parameters as a way of identifying spurious signals in measurements from individual pulsars. We used our upper limits on the GW strain to place lower limits on the distances to individual SMBHBs. At the most-sensitive sky location, we ruled out SMBHBs emitting GWs with $f_\mathrm{gw}= 8$ nHz within 120 Mpc for $\mathcal{M} = 10^9 \, M_\odot$, and within 5.5 Gpc for $\mathcal{M} = 10^{10} \, M_\odot$. We also determined that there are no SMBHBs with $\mathcal{M} > 1.6 \times 10^9 \, M_\odot$ emitting GWs in the Virgo Cluster. Finally, we estimated the number of potentially detectable sources given our current strain upper limits based on galaxies in Two Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS) and merger rates from the Illustris cosmological simulation project. Only 34 out of 75,000 realizations of the local Universe contained a detectable source, from which we concluded it was unsurprising that we did not detect any individual sources given our current sensitivity to GWs., Comment: 10 pages, 11 figures. Accepted by Astrophysical Journal. Please send any comments/questions to S. J. Vigeland (vigeland@uwm.edu)

Access to 50 years of data has led to the discovery of pulsar emission and rotation variability on timescales of months and years. Most of this long-term variability has been seen in long-period pulsars, with relatively little focus on recycled millisecond pulsars. We have analyzed a 38-pulsar sub-set of the 45 millisecond pulsars in the NANOGrav 11-year data set, in order to review their pulse profile stability. The most variability, on any timescale, is seen in PSRs J1713+0747, B1937+21 and J2145-0750. The strongest evidence for long-timescale pulse profile changes is seen in PSRs B1937+21 and J1643-1224. We have focused our analyses on these four pulsars in an attempt to elucidate the causes of their profile variability. Effects of scintillation seem to be responsible for the profile modifications of PSR J2145-0750. We see evidence that imperfect polarization calibration contributes to the profile variability of PSRs J1713+0747 and B1937+21, along with radio frequency interference around 2 GHz, but find that propagation effects also have an influence. The changes seen in PSR J1643-1224 have been reported previously, yet elude explanation beyond their astrophysical nature. Regardless of cause, unmodeled pulse profile changes are detrimental to the accuracy of pulsar timing and must be incorporated into the timing models where possible., Comment: 38 pages, 25 figures

Pulsar-timing analyses are sensitive to errors in the solar-system ephemerides (SSEs) that timing models utilise to estimate the location of the solar-system barycentre, the quasi-inertial reference frame to which all recorded pulse times-of-arrival are referred. Any error in the SSE will affect all pulsars, therefore pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are a suitable tool to search for such errors and impose independent constraints on relevant physical parameters. We employ the first data release of the International Pulsar Timing Array to constrain the masses of the planet-moons systems and to search for possible unmodelled objects (UMOs) in the solar system. We employ ten SSEs from two independent research groups, derive and compare mass constraints of planetary systems, and derive the first PTA mass constraints on asteroid-belt objects. Constraints on planetary-system masses have been improved by factors of up to 20 from the previous relevant study using the same assumptions, with the mass of the Jovian system measured at 9.5479189(3)$\times10^{-4}$ $M_{\odot}$. The mass of the dwarf planet Ceres is measured at 4.7(4)$\times10^{-10}$ $M_{\odot}$. We also present the first sensitivity curves using real data that place generic limits on the masses of UMOs, which can also be used as upper limits on the mass of putative exotic objects. For example, upper limits on dark-matter clumps are comparable to published limits using independent methods. While the constraints on planetary masses derived with all employed SSEs are consistent, we note and discuss differences in the associated timing residuals and UMO sensitivity curves., Comment: Accepted for publication by the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

We report timing results for PSR J2234+0611, a 3.6-ms pulsar in a 32-day, eccentric (e = 0.13) orbit with a helium white dwarf companion discovered as part of the Arecibo Observatory 327 MHz drift scan survey. The precise timing and the eccentric nature of the orbit allow precise measurements of an unusual number of parameters: a) a precise proper motion of 27.10(3) mas/yr and a parallax of 1.05(4) mas resulting in a pulsar distance of 0.95(4) kpc; this allows a precise estimate of the transverse velocity, 123(5) km/s. Together with previously published spectroscopic measurements of the systemic radial velocity, this allows a full 3-D determination of the system's velocity; b) precise measurements of the rate of advance of periastron, which after subtraction of the contribution of the proper motion yields a total system mass of $1.6518^{+0.0033}_{-0.0035}$ solar masses; c) a Shapiro delay measurement, h_3 = $82 \pm 14$ ns despite the orbital inclination not being near 90 deg; combined with the measurement of the total mass, this yields a pulsar mass of $1.353^{+0.014}_{-0.017}$ solar masses and a companion mass of $0.298^{+0.015}_{-0.012}$ solar masses; d) we measure precisely the secular variation of the projected semi-major axis and detect significant annual orbital parallax; together these allow a determination of the full 3-D orbital geometry, including an unambiguous orbital inclination (i = $138.7^{+2.5}_{-2.2}$ deg) and a position angle for the line of nodes (Omega = $44^{+5}_{-4}$ deg). We discuss the component masses to investigate hypotheses previously advanced to explain the origin of eccentric MSPs. The unprecedented determination of the full 3-D position, motion and orbital orientation of the system, plus the precisely measured pulsar and WD mass and the latter's optical detection make this system an unique test of our understanding of white dwarfs and their atmospheres., Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures, accepted by ApJ

Low-frequency gravitational-wave experiments require the highest timing precision from an array of the most stable millisecond pulsars. Several known sources of noise on short timescales in single radio-pulsar observations are well described by a simple model of three components: template-fitting from a finite signal-to-noise ratio, pulse phase/amplitude jitter from single-pulse stochasticity, and scintillation errors from short-timescale interstellar scattering variations. Currently template-fitting errors dominate, but as radio telescopes push towards higher signal-to-noise ratios, jitter becomes the next dominant term for most millisecond pulsars. Understanding the statistics of jitter becomes crucial for properly characterizing arrival-time uncertainties. We characterize the radio-frequency dependence of jitter using data on 48 pulsars in the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) timing program. We detect significant jitter in 43 of the pulsars and test several functional forms for its frequency dependence; we find significant frequency dependence for 30 pulsars. We find moderate correlations of rms jitter with pulse width (R = 0.62) and number of profile components (R = 0.40); the single-pulse rms jitter is typically ~1% of pulse phase. The average frequency dependence for all pulsars using a power-law model has index -0.42. We investigate the jitter variations for the interpulse of PSR~B1937+21 and find no significant deviations from the main pulse rms jitter. We also test the time-variation of jitter in two pulsars and find that systematics likely bias the results for high-precision pulsars. Pulsar timing array analyses must properly model jitter as a significant component of the noise within the detector., Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, submitted to ApJ

The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) has observed dozens of millisecond pulsars for over a decade. We have accrued a large collection of dispersion measure (DM) measurements sensitive to the total electron content between Earth and the pulsars at each observation. All lines of sight cross through the solar wind which produces correlated DM fluctuations in all pulsars. We develop and apply techniques for extracting the imprint of the solar wind from the full collection of DM measurements in the recently released NANOGrav 11-yr data set. We filter out long time scale DM fluctuations attributable to structure in the interstellar medium and carry out a simultaneous analysis of all pulsars in our sample that can differentiate the correlated signature of the wind from signals unique to individual lines of sight. When treating the solar wind as spherically symmetric and constant in time, we find the electron number density at 1 A.U. to be $7.9\pm0.2$ cm$^{-3}$. Our data shows little evidence of long-term variation in the density of the wind. We argue that our techniques paired with a high cadence, low radio frequency observing campaign of near-ecliptic pulsars would be capable of mapping out large-scale latitudinal structure in the wind., Comment: 15 pages, submitted to ApJ

Symmetries play an important role in modern theories of gravity. The strong equivalence principle (SEP) constitutes a collection of gravitational symmetries which are all implemented by general relativity. Alternative theories, however, are generally expected to violate some aspects of SEP. We test three aspects of SEP using observed change rates in the orbital period and eccentricity of binary pulsar J1713+0747: 1. the gravitational constant's constancy as part of locational invariance of gravitation; 2. the post-Newtonian parameter $\hat{\alpha}_3$ in gravitational Lorentz invariance; 3. the universality of free fall (UFF) for strongly self-gravitating bodies. Based on the pulsar timing result of the combined dataset from the North American Nanohertz Gravitational Observatory (NANOGrav) and the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA), we find $\dot{G}/G = (-0.1 \pm 0.9) \times 10^{-12}\,{\rm yr}^{-1}$, which is weaker than Solar system limits, but applies for strongly self-gravitating objects. Furthermore, we obtain the constraints $|\Delta|< 0.002$ for the UFF test and $-3\times10^{-20} < \hat{\alpha}_3 < 4\times10^{-20}$ at 95% confidence. These are the first direct UFF and $\hat{\alpha}_3$ tests based on pulsar binaries, and they overcome various limitations of previous tests., Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, and 1 table; submitted to MNRAS

We search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) in the newly released $11$-year dataset from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). While we find no significant evidence for a GWB, we place constraints on a GWB from a population of supermassive black-hole binaries, cosmic strings, and a primordial GWB. For the first time, we find that the GWB upper limits and detection statistics are sensitive to the Solar System ephemeris (SSE) model used, and that SSE errors can mimic a GWB signal. We developed an approach that bridges systematic SSE differences, producing the first PTA constraints that are robust against SSE uncertainties. We thus place a $95\%$ upper limit on the GW strain amplitude of $A_\mathrm{GWB}<1.45\times 10^{-15}$ at a frequency of $f=1$ yr$^{-1}$ for a fiducial $f^{-2/3}$ power-law spectrum, and with inter-pulsar correlations modeled. This is a factor of $\sim 2$ improvement over the NANOGrav $9$-year limit, calculated using the same procedure. Previous PTA upper limits on the GWB will need revision in light of SSE systematic uncertainties. We use our constraints to characterize the combined influence on the GWB of the stellar mass-density in galactic cores, the eccentricity of SMBH binaries, and SMBH--galactic-bulge scaling relationships. We constrain cosmic-string tension using recent simulations, yielding an SSE-marginalized $95\%$ upper limit on the cosmic string tension of $G\mu < 5.3\times 10^{-11}$---a factor of $\sim 2$ better than the published NANOGrav $9$-year constraints. Our SSE-marginalized $95\%$ upper limit on the energy density of a primordial GWB (for a radiation-dominated post-inflation Universe) is $\Omega_\mathrm{GWB}(f)h^2<3.4\times10^{-10}$., Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures, 9 tables. Published in The Astrophysical Journal. Please send any comments/questions to S. R. Taylor (srtaylor@caltech.edu)

Gravitational wave (GW) detection with pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) requires accurate noise characterization. The noise of our Galactic-scale GW detector has been systematically evaluated by the Noise Budget and Interstellar Medium Mitigation working groups within the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) collaboration. Intrinsically, individual radio millisecond pulsars (MSPs) used by NANOGrav can have some degree of achromatic red spin noise, as well as white noise due to pulse phase jitter. Along any given line-of-sight, the ionized interstellar medium contributes chromatic noise through dispersion measure (DM) variations, interstellar scintillation, and scattering. These effects contain both red and white components. In the future, with wideband receivers, the effects of frequency-dependent DM will become important. Having anticipated and measured these diverse sources of detector noise, the NANOGrav PTA remains well-poised to detect low-frequency GWs., Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Journal of Physics: Conference Series as Proceedings of Amaldi 12

The frequency dependence of radio pulse arrival times provides a probe of structures in the intervening media. Demorest et al. 2013 was the first to show a short-term (~100-200 days) reduction in the electron content along the line of sight to PSR J1713+0747 in data from 2008 (approximately MJD 54750) based on an apparent dip in the dispersion measure of the pulsar. We report on a similar event in 2016 (approximately MJD 57510), with average residual pulse-arrival times of approximately 3.0,-1.3, and -0.7 microseconds at 820, 1400, and 2300 MHz, respectively. Timing analyses indicate possible departures from the standard nu^-2 dispersive-delay dependence. We discuss and rule out a wide variety of potential interpretations. We find the likeliest scenario to be lensing of the radio emission by some structure in the interstellar medium, which causes multiple frequency-dependent pulse arrival-time delays., Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures, published in ApJ

We present a multi-wavelength photometric catalog in the COSMOS field as part of the observations by the Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (CANDELS). The catalog is based on Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 (HST/WFC3) and Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) observations of the COSMOS field (centered at RA: $10^h00^m28^s$, Dec:$+02^{\circ}12^{\prime}21^{\prime\prime}$). The final catalog has 38671 sources with photometric data in forty two bands from UV to the infrared ($\rm \sim 0.3-8\,\mu m$). This includes broad-band photometry from the HST, CFHT, Subaru, VISTA and Spitzer Space Telescope in the visible, near infrared and infrared bands along with intermediate and narrow-band photometry from Subaru and medium band data from Mayall NEWFIRM. Source detection was conducted in the WFC3 F160W band (at $\rm 1.6\,\mu m$) and photometry is generated using the Template FITting algorithm. We further present a catalog of the physical properties of sources as identified in the HST F160W band and measured from the multi-band photometry by fitting the observed spectral energy distributions of sources against templates., Comment: 28 Pages, 22 Figures and 10 Tables. Accepted for Publication in the ApJS

We analyze dispersion measure (DM) variations of 37 millisecond pulsars in the 9-year NANOGrav data release and constrain the sources of these variations. Variations are significant for nearly all pulsars, with characteristic timescales comparable to or even shorter than the average spacing between observations. Five pulsars have periodic annual variations, 14 pulsars have monotonically increasing or decreasing trends, and 13 pulsars show both effects. Several pulsars show correlations between DM excesses and lines of sight that pass close to the Sun. Mapping of the DM variations as a function of the pulsar trajectory can identify localized ISM features and, in one case, an upper limit to the size of the dispersing region of 13.2 AU. Finally, five pulsars show very nearly quadratic structure functions, which could be indicative of an underlying Kolmogorov medium. Four pulsars show roughly Kolmogorov structure functions and another four show structure functions less steep than Kolmogorov. One pulsar has too large an uncertainty to allow comparisons. We discuss explanations for apparent departures from a Kolmogorov-like spectrum, and show that the presence of other trends in the data is the most likely cause., Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures, submitted to ApJ

In pulsar timing, timing residuals are the differences between the observed times of arrival and the predictions from the timing model. A comprehensive timing model will produce featureless residuals, which are presumably composed of dominating noise and weak physical effects excluded from the timing model (e.g. gravitational waves). In order to apply the optimal statistical methods for detecting the weak gravitational wave signals, we need to know the statistical properties of the noise components in the residuals. In this paper we utilize a variety of non-parametric statistical tests to analyze the whiteness and Gaussianity of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) 5-year timing data which are obtained from the Arecibo Observatory and the Green Bank Telescope from 2005 to 2010 (Demorest et al. 2013). We find that most of the data are consistent with white noise; Many data deviate from Gaussianity at different levels, nevertheless, removing outliers in some pulsars will mitigate the deviations., Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables. Accepted by RAA

Gravitational wave astronomy using a pulsar timing array requires high-quality millisecond pulsars, correctable interstellar propagation delays, and high-precision measurements of pulse times of arrival. Here we identify noise in timing residuals that exceeds that predicted for arrival time estimation for millisecond pulsars observed by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. We characterize the excess noise using variance and structure function analyses. We find that 26 out of 37 pulsars show inconsistencies with a white-noise-only model based on the short timescale analysis of each pulsar and we demonstrate that the excess noise has a red power spectrum for 15 pulsars. We also decompose the excess noise into chromatic (radio-frequency-dependent) and achromatic components. Associating the achromatic red-noise component with spin noise and including additional power-spectrum-based estimates from the literature, we estimate a scaling law in terms of spin parameters (frequency and frequency derivative) and data-span length and compare it to the scaling law of Shannon \& Cordes (2010). We briefly discuss our results in terms of detection of gravitational waves at nanohertz frequencies., Comment: 20 pages, 16 figures, to be published in ApJ

PSR J1024$-$0719 is a millisecond pulsar that was long thought to be isolated. However, puzzling results concerning its velocity, distance, and low rotational period derivative have led to reexamination of its properties. We present updated radio timing observations along with new and archival optical data that show PSR J1024$-$0719 is most likely in a long period (2$-$20 kyr) binary system with a low-mass ($\approx 0.4\,M_\odot$) low-metallicity ($Z \approx -0.9\,$ dex) main sequence star. Such a system can explain most of the anomalous properties of this pulsar. We suggest that this system formed through a dynamical exchange in a globular cluster that ejected it into a halo orbit, consistent with the low observed metallicity for the stellar companion. Further astrometric and radio timing observations such as measurement of the third period derivative could strongly constrain the range of orbital parameters., Comment: Accepted by ApJ. 14 pages, 8 figures

We analyse the stochastic properties of the 49 pulsars that comprise the first International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA) data release. We use Bayesian methodology, performing model selection to determine the optimal description of the stochastic signals present in each pulsar. In addition to spin-noise and dispersion-measure (DM) variations, these models can include timing noise unique to a single observing system, or frequency band. We show the improved radio-frequency coverage and presence of overlapping data from different observing systems in the IPTA data set enables us to separate both system and band-dependent effects with much greater efficacy than in the individual PTA data sets. For example, we show that PSR J1643$-$1224 has, in addition to DM variations, significant band-dependent noise that is coherent between PTAs which we interpret as coming from time-variable scattering or refraction in the ionised interstellar medium. Failing to model these different contributions appropriately can dramatically alter the astrophysical interpretation of the stochastic signals observed in the residuals. In some cases, the spectral exponent of the spin noise signal can vary from 1.6 to 4 depending upon the model, which has direct implications for the long-term sensitivity of the pulsar to a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background. By using a more appropriate model, however, we can greatly improve a pulsar's sensitivity to GWs. For example, including system and band-dependent signals in the PSR J0437$-$4715 data set improves the upper limit on a fiducial GW background by $\sim 60\%$ compared to a model that includes DM variations and spin-noise only., Comment: 29 pages. 16 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

The highly stable spin of neutron stars can be exploited for a variety of (astro-)physical investigations. In particular arrays of pulsars with rotational periods of the order of milliseconds can be used to detect correlated signals such as those caused by gravitational waves. Three such "Pulsar Timing Arrays" (PTAs) have been set up around the world over the past decades and collectively form the "International" PTA (IPTA). In this paper, we describe the first joint analysis of the data from the three regional PTAs, i.e. of the first IPTA data set. We describe the available PTA data, the approach presently followed for its combination and suggest improvements for future PTA research. Particular attention is paid to subtle details (such as underestimation of measurement uncertainty and long-period noise) that have often been ignored but which become important in this unprecedentedly large and inhomogeneous data set. We identify and describe in detail several factors that complicate IPTA research and provide recommendations for future pulsar timing efforts. The first IPTA data release presented here (and available online) is used to demonstrate the IPTA's potential of improving upon gravitational-wave limits placed by individual PTAs by a factor of ~2 and provides a 2-sigma limit on the dimensionless amplitude of a stochastic GWB of 1.7x10^{-15} at a frequency of 1 yr^{-1}. This is 1.7 times less constraining than the limit placed by (Shannon et al. 2015), due mostly to the more recent, high-quality data they used., Comment: 25 pages, 6 tables, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

The use of pulsars as astrophysical clocks for gravitational wave experiments demands the highest possible timing precision. Pulse times of arrival (TOAs) are limited by stochastic processes that occur in the pulsar itself, along the line of sight through the interstellar medium, and in the measurement process. On timescales of seconds to hours, the TOA variance exceeds that from template-fitting errors due to additive noise. We assess contributions to the total variance from two additional effects: amplitude and phase jitter intrinsic to single pulses and changes in the interstellar impulse response from scattering. The three effects have different dependencies on time, frequency, and pulse signal-to-noise ratio. We use data on 37 pulsars from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves to assess the individual contributions to the overall intraday noise budget for each pulsar. We detect jitter in 22 pulsars and estimate the average value of RMS jitter in our pulsars to be $\sim 1\%$ of pulse phase. We examine how jitter evolves as a function of frequency and find evidence for evolution. Finally, we compare our measurements with previous noise parameter estimates and discuss methods to improve gravitational wave detection pipelines., Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, published in ApJ

Dense, continuous pulsar timing observations over a 24-hr period provide a method for probing intermediate gravitational wave (GW) frequencies from 10 microhertz to 20 millihertz. The European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA), the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav), the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array (PPTA), and the combined International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA) all use millisecond pulsar observations to detect or constrain GWs typically at nanohertz frequencies. In the case of the IPTA's nine-telescope 24-Hour Global Campaign on millisecond pulsar J1713+0747, GW limits in the intermediate frequency regime can be produced. The negligible change in dispersion measure during the observation minimizes red noise in the timing residuals, constraining any contributions from GWs due to individual sources. At 10$^{-5}$Hz, the 95% upper limit on strain is 10$^{-11}$ for GW sources in the pulsar's direction., Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, published in the proceedings of Amaldi 11

We present high-precision timing observations spanning up to nine years for 37 millisecond pulsars monitored with the Green Bank and Arecibo radio telescopes as part of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project. We describe the observational and instrumental setups used to collect the data, and methodology applied for calculating pulse times of arrival; these include novel methods for measuring instrumental offsets and characterizing low signal-to-noise ratio timing results. The time of arrival data are fit to a physical timing model for each source, including terms that characterize time-variable dispersion measure and frequency-dependent pulse shape evolution. In conjunction with the timing model fit, we have performed a Bayesian analysis of a parameterized timing noise model for each source, and detect evidence for excess low-frequency, or "red," timing noise in 10 of the pulsars. For 5 of these cases this is likely due to interstellar medium propagation effects rather than intrisic spin variations. Subsequent papers in this series will present further analysis of this data set aimed at detecting or limiting the presence of nanohertz-frequency gravitational wave signals., Comment: 37 pages, 43 figures, this revision matches the final ApJ accepted version

We report 21-yr timing of one of the most precise pulsars: PSR J1713+0747. Its pulse times of arrival are well modeled by a comprehensive pulsar binary model including its three-dimensional orbit and a noise model that incorporates correlated noise such as jitter and red noise. Its timing residuals have weighted root mean square $\sim 92$ ns. The new dataset allows us to update and improve previous measurements of the system properties, including the masses of the neutron star ($1.31\pm0.11$ $M_{\odot}$) and the companion white dwarf ($0.286\pm0.012$ $M_{\odot}$) and the parallax distance $1.15\pm0.03$ kpc. We measured the intrinsic change in orbital period, $\dot{P}^{\rm Int}_{\rm b}$, is $-0.20\pm0.17$ ps s$^{-1}$, which is not distinguishable from zero. This result, combined with the measured $\dot{P}^{\rm Int}_{\rm b}$ of other pulsars, can place a generic limit on potential changes in the gravitational constant $G$. We found that $\dot{G}/G$ is consistent with zero [$(-0.6\pm1.1)\times10^{-12}$ yr$^{-1}$, 95\% confidence] and changes at least a factor of $31$ (99.7\% confidence) more slowly than the average expansion rate of the Universe. This is the best $\dot{G}/G$ limit from pulsar binary systems. The $\dot{P}^{\rm Int}_{\rm b}$ of pulsar binaries can also place limits on the putative coupling constant for dipole gravitational radiation $\kappa_D=(-0.9\pm3.3)\times10^{-4}$ (95\% confidence). Finally, the nearly circular orbit of this pulsar binary allows us to constrain statistically the strong-field post-Newtonian parameters $\Delta$, which describes the violation of strong equivalence principle, and $\hat{\alpha}_3$, which describes a breaking of both Lorentz invariance in gravitation and conservation of momentum. We found, at 95\% confidence, $\Delta<0.01$ and $\hat{\alpha}_3<2\times10^{-20}$ based on PSR J1713+0747., Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures. Published on ApJ, 809, 41 (2015)

Among efforts to detect gravitational radiation, pulsar timing arrays are uniquely poised to detect "memory" signatures, permanent perturbations in spacetime from highly energetic astrophysical events such as mergers of supermassive black hole binaries. The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) observes dozens of the most stable millisecond pulsars using the Arecibo and Green Bank radio telescopes in an effort to study, among other things, gravitational wave memory. We herein present the results of a search for gravitational wave bursts with memory (BWMs) using the first five years of NANOGrav observations. We develop original methods for dramatically speeding up searches for BWM signals. In the directions of the sky where our sensitivity to BWMs is best, we would detect mergers of binaries with reduced masses of $10^9$ $M_\odot$ out to distances of 30 Mpc; such massive mergers in the Virgo cluster would be marginally detectable. We find no evidence for BWMs. However, with our non-detection, we set upper limits on the rate at which BWMs of various amplitudes could have occurred during the time spanned by our data--e.g., BWMs with amplitudes greater than $10^{-13}$ must occur at a rate less than 1.5 yr$^{-1}$., Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures. We will submit this article to ApJ two weeks from now. Questions or comments should be directed to Dustin Madison (drm252@cornell.edu)

Free electrons in the interstellar medium cause frequency-dependent delays in pulse arrival times due to both scattering and dispersion. Multi-frequency measurements are used to estimate and remove dispersion delays. In this paper, we focus on the effect of any non-simultaneity of multi-frequency observations on dispersive delay estimation and removal. Interstellar density variations combined with changes in the line-of-sight from pulsar and observer motions cause dispersion measure variations with an approximately power-law power spectrum, augmented in some cases by linear trends. We simulate time series, estimate the magnitude and statistical properties of timing errors that result from non-simultaneous observations, and derive prescriptions for data acquisition that are needed in order to achieve a specified timing precision. For nearby, highly stable pulsars, measurements need to be simultaneous to within about one day in order that the timing error from asynchronous DM correction is less than about 10 ns. We discuss how timing precision improves when increasing the number of dual-frequency observations used in dispersion measure estimation for a given epoch. For a Kolmogorov wavenumber spectrum, we find about a factor of two improvement in precision timing when increasing from two to three observations but diminishing returns thereafter., Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

The radio millisecond pulsar J1713+0747 is regarded as one of the highest-precision clocks in the sky, and is regularly timed for the purpose of detecting gravitational waves. The International Pulsar Timing Array collaboration undertook a 24-hour global observation of PSR J1713+0747 in an effort to better quantify sources of timing noise in this pulsar, particularly on intermediate (1 - 24 hr) timescales. We observed the pulsar continuously over 24 hr with the Arecibo, Effelsberg, GMRT, Green Bank, LOFAR, Lovell, Nancay, Parkes, and WSRT radio telescopes. The combined pulse times-of-arrival presented here provide an estimate of what sources of timing noise, excluding DM variations, would be present as compared to an idealized root-N improvement in timing precision, where N is the number of pulses analyzed. In the case of this particular pulsar, we find that intrinsic pulse phase jitter dominates arrival time precision when the S/N of single pulses exceeds unity, as measured using the eight telescopes that observed at L-band/1.4 GHz. We present first results of specific phenomena probed on the unusually long timescale (for a single continuous observing session) of tens of hours, in particular interstellar scintillation, and discuss the degree to which scintillation and profile evolution affect precision timing. This paper presents the data set as a basis for future, deeper studies., Comment: Published in the Astrophysical Journal

The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project currently observes 43 pulsars using the Green Bank and Arecibo radio telescopes. In this work we use a subset of 17 pulsars timed for a span of roughly five years (2005--2010). We analyze these data using standard pulsar timing models, with the addition of time-variable dispersion measure and frequency-variable pulse shape terms. Within the timing data, we perform a search for continuous gravitational waves from individual supermassive black hole binaries in circular orbits using robust frequentist and Bayesian techniques. We find that there is no evidence for the presence of a detectable continuous gravitational wave; however, we can use these data to place the most constraining upper limits to date on the strength of such gravitational waves. Using the full 17 pulsar dataset we place a 95% upper limit on the sky-averaged strain amplitude of $h_0\lesssim 3.8\times 10^{-14}$ at a frequency of 10 nHz. Furthermore, we place 95% \emph{all sky} lower limits on the luminosity distance to such gravitational wave sources finding that the $d_L \gtrsim 425$ Mpc for sources at a frequency of 10 nHz and chirp mass $10^{10}{\rm M}_{\odot}$. We find that for gravitational wave sources near our best timed pulsars in the sky, the sensitivity of the pulsar timing array is increased by a factor of $\sim$4 over the sky-averaged sensitivity. Finally we place limits on the coalescence rate of the most massive supermassive black hole binaries., Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures. Matches version submitted to ApJ