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Precipitation including its wet and dry extremes is changing as a consequence of a warming climate, and is modulated by different modes of climate variability. Assessing precipitation changes in the next few decades requires therefore an understanding of its responses to both external forcing and internally generated climate variability.We assess a large ensemble of historically forced simulations from CMIP6 in their fidelity to capture observed precipitation changes, using several skill metrics widely used in the field of climate prediction. We find that these simulations skillfully represent observed mean and extreme precipitation changes over large parts of Europe, Asia, northeastern North America, parts of South America and western Australia, whereas a lack of skill is apparent in western North America and parts of Africa. In particular in regions with moderate skill and where observed precipitation exhibits decadal-scale variations, the use of very large ensembles beyond 100 members can be beneficial to increase the accuracy of simulated precipitation and identify a predictable signal.We then apply a constraint that aligns the phasing of internal variability between the models and the observations at a given time. We demonstrate how this constraint enhances the accuracy of near-term projections for the next 20 years. In particular, the constraint improves near-term projections of drought in areas that have recently been affected by severe and prolonged drought events, such as the southwestern US and Southeast Australia.This analysis highlights regions where observed precipitation changes are explained primarily by forcing, or additionally modulated by decadal climate variability.&nbsp, The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)

In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.

Objective: In order to verify the methodological quality of two versions of a tool for measuring attitudes towards interprofessional learning, we adapted – in terms of translation and scale form – the Heidelberg Version [ref:1] of Readiness for Interprofessional Learning Scale - RIPLS [ref:2], a methodologically controversial tool that had been translated into German, and compared both the original and new versions. Method: Three items were reworded and the scale form altered (from five to four levels), leading to the Halle Version that was validated by means of a cognitive pretest (n=6). Both questionnaires were completed by students taking the interprofessional degree program in Health and Nursing Sciences (HNS) and by students of Human Medicine. The test quality of both tools was examined by analyzing the main components and reliability using the scales allocation of the items as according to Parsell and Bligh [ref:2]. Results: The questionnaires were randomly assembled and distributed to 331 students. The response was n=320 (HNS n=109; Medicine n=211). The Halle Version “RIPLS-HAL” of the questionnaire was completed by n=166 and the Heidelberg Version “RIPLS-HDB” by n=154. In the main component analysis the data could not depict the scale patterns of the original Australian tool. The reliability values of both the Heidelberg and Halle versions were only satisfactory for the “Teamwork and Collaboration” and “Professional Identity” scales. Conclusions: The German version of the Readiness for Interprofessional Learning Scale has only limited suitability for recording the attitude towards interprofessional learning. The present versions can be regarded as an approach towards developing a more suitable tool., Ziel: Um die methodische Qualität eines Instrumentes zur Messung der Einstellung zum interprofessionellen Lernen in zwei Versionen zu überprüfen, wurde die Heidelberger Version [ref:2] der ins Deutsche übersetzten und methodisch umstrittenen Readiness for Interprofessional Learning Scale - RIPLS [ref:3] in Bezug auf Übersetzung und Skalenform angepasst und beide Versionen wurden verglichen. Methode: Umformulierungen in drei Items und die Veränderung des Skalenformats (von fünf- zu vierstufig) führten zur Hallenser Version, die mittels kognitivem Pretest (n=6) validiert wurde. Die beiden Fragebögen wurden von Studierenden des interprofessionellen Studiengangs Gesundheits- und Pflegewissenschaften (GPW) und von Studierenden der Humanmedizin ausgefüllt. Die Testqualität der Instrumente wurde mittels Hauptkomponenten- und Reliabilitätsanalysen anhand der Skalenzuweisung der Items nach Parsell und Bligh [ref:2] untersucht. Ergebnisse: Die Fragebögen wurden randomisiert gestapelt und an 331 Studierende ausgegeben. Der Rücklauf lag bei n=320 (GPW n=109; Medizin n=211). Davon füllten n=166 den Bogen der Hallenser Version „RIPLS-HAL“ und n=154 den Bogen der Heidelberger Version „RIPLS-HDB“ aus. Die Daten konnten in Hauptkomponentenanalysen die Skalenbildung des australischen Originals nicht abbilden. Die Reliabilitätswerte sowohl der Heidelberger als auch Hallenser Version sind nur für die Skalen „Teamwork and Collaboration“ und „Professional Identity“ akzeptabel. Schlussfolgerungen: Die Readiness for Interprofessional Learning Scale in der deutschen Version ist aufgrund methodischer Limitationen bedingt für die Erfassung der Einstellung zum interprofessionellen Lernen geeignet. Die derzeitigen Versionen können als Ansatz zur Entwicklung eines geeigneteren Instrumentes betrachtet werden., GMS Journal for Medical Education; 34(3):Doc33

Attribution of extreme events is a challenging science and one that is currently undergoing considerable evolution. In this paper are 19 analyses by 18 different research groups, often using quite different methodologies, of 12 extreme events that occurred in 2012. In addition to investigating the causes of these extreme events, the multiple analyses of four of the events, the high temperatures in the United States, the record low levels of Arctic sea ice, and the heavy rain in northern Europe and eastern Australia, provide an opportunity to compare and contrast the strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies. The differences also provide insights into the structural uncertainty of event attribution, that is, the uncertainty that arises directly from the differences in analysis methodology. In these cases, there was considerable agreement between the different assessments of the same event. However, different events had very different causes. Approximately half the analyses found some evidence that anthropogenically caused climate change was a contributing factor to the extreme event examined, though the effects of natural fluctuations of weather and climate on the evolution of many of the extreme events played key roles as well.

In this study, we present the collation and analysis of the gridded land-based dataset of indices of temperature and precipitation extremes: HadEX2. Indices were calculated based on station data using a consistent approach recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, resulting in the production of 17 temperature and 12 precipitation indices derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation observations. High-quality in situ observations from over 7000 temperature and 11,000 precipitation meteorological stations across the globe were obtained to calculate the indices over the period of record available for each station. Monthly and annual indices were then interpolated onto a 3.75° × 2.5° longitude-latitude grid over the period 1901-2010. Linear trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Overall there was very good agreement with the previous HadEX dataset during the overlapping data period. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes consistent with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature over the whole 110 years of record but with stronger trends in more recent decades. Seasonal results showed significant warming in all seasons but more so in the colder months. Precipitation indices also showed widespread and significant trends, but the changes were much more spatially heterogeneous compared with temperature changes. However, results indicated more areas with significant increasing trends in extreme precipitation amounts, intensity, and frequency than areas with decreasing trends. Fil: Donat, M. G.. University of New South Wales; Australia Fil: Alexander, L. V.. University of New South Wales; Australia. Arc Centre Of Excellence For Climate System Science; Australia Fil: Yang, H.. University of New South Wales; Australia Fil: Durre, I.. NOAA National Climatic Data Center; Estados Unidos Fil: Vose, R.. NOAA National Climatic Data Center; Estados Unidos Fil: Dunn, R. J. H.. Hadley Centre; Reino Unido Fil: Willett, K. M.. Hadley Centre; Reino Unido Fil: Aguilar, E.. Universitat Rovira I Virgili; España Fil: Brunet, M.. University of East Anglia; Reino Unido. Universitat Rovira I Virgili; España Fil: Caesar, J.. Hadley Centre; Reino Unido Fil: Hewitson, B.. University of Cape Town; Sudáfrica Fil: Jack, C.. University of Cape Town; Sudáfrica Fil: Klein Tank, A. M. G.. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute; Países Bajos Fil: Kruger, A. C.. South African Weather Service; Sudáfrica Fil: Marengo, J.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil Fil: Peterson, T. C.. NOAA National Climatic Data Center; Estados Unidos Fil: Renom, M.. Universidad de la República; Uruguay. Universidad de la Republica; Uruguay Fil: Oria Rojas, C.. Servicio Nacional de Meteorología E Hidrología del Perú; Perú Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: Salinger, J.. University of Stanford; Estados Unidos Fil: Elrayah, A. S.. Sudan Meteorological Authority; Sudán Fil: Sekele, S. S.. South African Weather Service; Sudáfrica Fil: Srivastava, A. K.. India Meteorological Department; India Fil: Trewin, B.. Bureau Of Meteorology Australia; Australia Fil: Villarroel, C.. Direccion Meteorologica de Chile; Chile Fil: Vincent, L. A.. Environment Canada; Canadá Fil: Zhai, P.. Chinese Academy Of Meteorological Sciences; China Fil: Zhang, X.. Environment Canada; Canadá Fil: Kitching, S.. Arc Centre Of Excellence For Climate System Science; Australia. University of Newcastle; Reino Unido

The impact of historical land use induced land cover change (LULCC) on regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. To assess those impacts, multiple indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation were used. We contrast the impact of LULCC on extremes with the impact of an increase in atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv. In general, changes in both high and low temperature extremes are similar to the simulated change in mean temperature caused by LULCC and are restricted to regions of intense modification. The impact of LULCC on both means and on most temperature extremes is statistically significant. While the magnitude of the LULCC induced change in the extremes can be of similar magnitude to the response to the change in CO2, the impacts of LULCC are much more geographically isolated. For most models the impacts of LULCC oppose the impact of the increase in CO2 except for one model where the CO2-caused changes in the extremes is amplified. While we find some evidence that individual models respond consistently to LULCC in the simulation of changes in rainfall and rainfall extremes, LULCC's role in affecting rainfall is much less clear and less commonly statistically significant, with the exception of a consistent impact over South East Asia. Since the simulated response of mean and extreme temperature to LULCC is relatively large, we conclude that unless this forcing is included we risk erroneous conclusions regarding the drivers of temperature changes over regions of intense LULCC.

A range of possible changes in the frequency and characteristics of European wind storms under future climate conditions was investigated on the basis of a multi-model ensemble of 9 coupled global climate model (GCM) simulations for the 20th and 21st centuries following the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. A multi-model approach allowed an estimation of the (un)certainties of the climate change signals. General changes in large-scale atmospheric flow were analysed, the occurrence of wind storms was quantified, and atmospheric features associated with wind storm events were considered. Identified storm days were investigated according to atmospheric circulation, associated pressure patterns, cyclone tracks and wind speed patterns. Validation against reanalysis data revealed that the GCMs are in general capable of realistically reproducing characteristics of European circulation weather types (CWTs) and wind storms. Results are given with respect to frequency of occurrence, storm-associated flow conditions, cyclone tracks and specific wind speed patterns. Under anthropogenic climate change conditions (SRES A1B scenario), increased frequency of westerly flow during winter is detected over the central European investigation area. In the ensemble mean, the number of detected wind storm days increases between 19 and 33% for 2 different measures of storminess, only 1 GCM revealed less storm days. The increased number of storm days detected in most models is disproportionately high compared to the related CWT changes. The mean intensity of cyclones associated with storm days in the ensemble mean increases by about 10 (±10)% in the Eastern Atlantic, near the British Isles and in the North Sea. Accordingly, wind speeds associated with storm events increase significantly by about 5 (±5)% over large parts of central Europe, mainly on days with westerly flow. The basic conclusions of this work remain valid if different ensemble contructions are considered, leaving out an outlier model or including multiple runs of one particular model.

Einleitung: Die Laryngektomie hat nicht nur den Verlust des stimmlichen Organs zur Folge, sondern auch - durch den Verlust der Nasenfunktionen - weitreichende Folgen für die Atmung. Durch die Verwendung von HME (Heat and Moisture Exchanger) können diese Funktionen teilweise wiederhergestellt werden. Ziel unserer Untersuchungen waren die Auswirkungen von HME auf die tracheale Standortflora.Methoden: In einer klinischen Studie wurden mikrobiologische Untersuchungen von Abstrichen durchgeführt, die 5 cm unterhalb des Tracheostomas an der Tracheahinterwand entnommen wurden. In einem retrospektiven Arm wurden 10 Patienten ohne Filter, 10 Patienten mit Schutzlätzchen und 10 Patienten mit Filtern untersucht. Prospektiv erfolgten Abstriche bei tracheotomierten bzw. laryngektomierten Patienten mit bzw. ohne Filter an den postoperativen Tagen 1, 8 und 28.Ergebnisse: Die Ergebnisse zeigten sowohl im retrospektiven als auch im prospektiven Arm ein vermehrtes Vorkommen pathologischer Keime bei Patienten, die keinen Filter nutzen.Schlussfolgerungen: Neben der Erhöhung des Atemwiderstandes, der Anfeuchtung und der Erwärmung der Atemluft, bieten die Heat und Moisture Exchanger auch einen gewissen Schutz vor pathogenen Keimen und sollten daher bei Patienten mit einem Tracheostoma zur Anwendung komme.