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De huidige ontwikkelingen op het gebied van automatische waarderingen binnen de vastgoedtaxatiepraktijk zijn vooralsnog niet transparant genoeg om de traditionele taxateur te vervangen. Hybride benaderingen – waarbij mens en machine samenwerken – worden steeds vaker gebruikt en lijken de consistentie, en daardoor de kwaliteit, van waarderingen te verbeteren. Het doel van dit artikel is als volgt: 1) het toelichten van de huidige vastgoedtaxatiepraktijk en waarom ‘automated valuation models’ (AVMs) in overeenstemming met huidige wet- en regelgeving niet een substituut vormen voor traditionele waarderingsmethoden, maar complementair zijn aan de Register Taxateur; 2) Het ontwikkelen we een AVM op basis van de expertise van Register Taxateurs om de uitlegbaarheid te verhogen en vervolgens de resultaten te vergelijken met bestaande AVMs door middel van een casestudie met betrekking tot buy-to-let woningen in Nederland.

This paper empirically examines the relation between the initial socio-economic status of neighborhoods and subsequent housing development in the Netherlands from 2013 to 2020. We generate a unique dataset by combining registry data on housing construction and demolition in the Netherlands with a novel spatio-temporal clustering methodology. This approach allows us to identify and classify individual housing development projects. The findings in this paper show that the likelihood that a housing development occurs is equal across neighborhoods that differ in terms of their initial socio-economic status. However, this finding masks heterogeneity across different types of housing development projects, with some that are more prevalent in high-income neighborhoods, and others in low-income neighborhoods.

1.1 Skilled workers and regional developmentThe research carried out in the HELP project concerns the importance of urban amenities for the location choices of highly educated workers. Why is this important? A general answer to this question is that such workers are generally regarded as being the drivers of economic prosperity and growth in cities. In this introductory section we discuss some evidence that motivates this idea.In ‘The Economy of Cities’ Jane Jacobs (1970) puts forward the thesis that human interaction is a crucial aspect of urban economies. Economists such as Lucas (1988) picked up this idea, which they interpreted as human capital externalities. That is, interaction between educated individuals generates benefits for society that exceed those accruing to the individuals. The high population density in cities stimulates such interactions, which can alternatively be viewed as a kind of agglomeration economies. Cities thus become more productive places and this process works continuously and generates growth. Empirical evidence in favor of this hypothesis was provided by Rauch (1993) who estimated that an additional year of schooling of the labor force in an urban area gave rise to an increase in total factor productivity of 2.8%. Later studies include Glaeser and Maré (2001), who find that workers moving to the city realize important wage gains, especially when they are young. They do not lose these gains when they later move to rural areas, which suggests that their sojourn in the city has permanently increased their productivity.1.2 Consumer cityIf it is true that the interaction of highly educated workers generates substantial external effects, it is clearly important for urban policy makers to know how they can attract such workers and, when they are present, make them stay. An important contribution to the economic literature on this issue was made by Roback (1982). The basic idea of this paper is that of equilibrium: if identical workers live at different locations, they must be equally well-off in all of them. The well-being of workers depends on wages, but also on the price of consumer goods, including housing, and on the presence of local amenities. There is a trade-off between these determinants: workers can, for instance, be compensated for high house prices by higher wages or better amenities. Workers can only be attracted to cities if there are jobs and although local labor markets may differ in many respects, it is generally the case that higher wages lower the demand for workers.1 However, if a city has good amenities it may continue to attract highly educated workers even when wages are not that high. This reasoning thus suggests an important connection between urban amenities and economic prosperity.Although urban economic theory has traditionally regarded the city primarily as the location of jobs, increasing attention is paid to the importance of consumer amenities for urban life. A pioneering contribution was Brueckner et al.’s (1999) answer to the question why central Paris is rich while downtown Detroit is poor. Amenities make the difference, according to the theory developed by these authors. When the central city is attractive high income households are willing to pay a lot for living there and contribute to a vital central city, whereas the lack of amenities make the rich choose for luxury houses in the suburbs with the risk of a desolate inner city. Another seminal study is Glaeser et al. (2001), who provide a large amount of empirical evidence that suggests that consumer amenities are important for cities. Later studies include Van Duijn and Rouwendal (2013), who show that cultural heritage – they use ancient inner cities as a proxy – is indeed an important attractor of cities. Their sorting model is of the same type as those used in this report.1 The external effects generated by the interaction of highly educated workers may mitigate this effect, but should not be expected to provide full compensation.

In this paper we study the relationship between cultural heritage and retail store dynamics at the neighbourhood level in the Netherlands. We analyze the total number of stores, number of vacant stores and number of stores by retail sub-industry in neighbourhoods, thereby focusing on the impact of cultural heritage, while controlling for many other factors. We test whether the presence of cultural heritage has a causal impact on the retail activity in neighbourhoods using an instrumental variables strategy for cross-section data. We also compare the development of the various indicators of retail activity over time in neighbourhoods with and without cultural heritage to investigate a the existence of an impact of historical districts and buildings on urban resilience. We use a unique panel dataset from Locatus which has information on the location and type of stores in the Netherlands over a period of 7 years (2004-2010). The results show that the presence of cultural heritage increases the demand for shopping areas. Therefore, there are more stores in neighbourhoods where cultural heritage is present. We also show that the impact of cultural heritage and distance to the city centre for retail activity slowly changes over time, indicating a continuously changing urban environment. Furthermore, we provide evidence on the resilience of stores within cultural-rich neighbourhoods after the recession started in 2007 using a duration analysis.

This paper provides a model for the well-known empirical phenomenon that houses of different quality experience different price developments. The typical pattern is that luxury houses appreciate more in boom periods and depreciate more during busts. The standard model of housing demand treats housing as a quantity of ?housing services?, an imaginary homogeneous commodity that is available in arbitrary quantities at a constant price per unit. This model is unable to explain differential development of house prices. However, a simple variant that treats the number of houses offering a given number of housing services as fixed is able to do this. This is shown by means of a formal analysis of a model in which households that differ in income are allocated over a given housing stock. In particular, the model predicts that the price of housing as a function of quality becomes more convex after a proportional increase in all incomes. Earlier explanations of this phenomenon relied on down payment effects, but since diverging house price developments are also observed in countries where these effects are negligible, this provides only a partial explanation. Empirical analysis of house prices in Amsterdam confirms the predictions of the model.

This thesis contains four studies that focus on different aspects of retail real estate, including agglomeration, diversification, and redevelopment. The first study investigates the location patterns of retail real estate properties in the Netherlands. The second study focuses on the tenant mix within shopping districts and examines the relationship between tenant mix and retail rents. The third study discusses the regional variations in depreciations rates of commercial real estate properties, including office, retail, and industrial buildings, across Europe. The fourth study focuses on the redevelopment of shopping centers and investigates the external effects of shopping center redevelopment on nearby house prices. The studies included in this thesis help our understanding of various aspects related to retail real estate.