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The potential for biological colonization of Antarctic shores is an increasingly important topic in the context of anthropogenic warming. Successful Antarctic invasions to date have been recorded exclusively from terrestrial habitats. While non-native marine species such as crabs, mussels and tunicates have already been reported from Antarctic coasts, none have as yet established there. Among the potential marine invaders of Antarctic shallow waters is Halicarcinus planatus (Fabricius, 1775), a crab with a circum-Subantarctic distribution and substantial larval dispersal capacity. An ovigerous female of this species was found in shallow waters of Deception Island, South Shetland Islands in 2010. A combination of physiological experiments and ecological modelling was used to assess the potential niche of H. planatus and estimate its future southward boundaries under climate change scenarios. We show that H. planatus has a minimum thermal limit of 1°C, and that its current distribution (assessed by sampling and niche modelling) is physiologically restricted to the Subantarctic region. While this species is presently unable to survive in Antarctica, future warming under both ‘strong mitigation’ and ‘no mitigation’ greenhouse gas emission scenarios will favour its niche expansion to the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) by 2100. Future human activity also has potential to increase the probability of anthropogenic translocation of this species into Antarctic ecosystems., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

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info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Data assimilation into sea ice models designed for climate studies has started about 15 years ago. In most of the studies conducted so far, it is assumed that the improvement brought by the assimilation is straightforward. However, some studies suggest this might not be true. In order to elucidate this question and to find an appropriate way to further assimilate sea ice concentration and velocity observations into large-scale sea ice models, we analyze here results from a number of twin experiments (i.e. experiments in which the assimilated data are model outputs) carried out with first a simplified model of the Arctic sea ice pack then with NEMO-LIM2, a primitive equation ocean general circulation model coupled to LIM (Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model). Our objective is to determine to what degree the assimilation of ice velocity and/or concentration data improves the global performance of the model and, more specifically, reduces the error in the computed ice thickness. A simple scheme is used, and outputs from a control run and from perturbed experiments without and with data assimilation are thoroughly compared. Our results indicate that, under certain conditions depending on the assimilation weights and the type of model error, the assimilation of ice velocity data enhances the model performance. The assimilation of ice concentration data also helps in improving the model results, but it has to be handled with care because of the strong link between ice concentration and ice thickness. Therefore, we show that one should conserve the ice thickness (not the ice volume) when ice concentration data are assimilated into the model. We also demonstrate that one should assimilate sea ice concentration and velocity data simultaneously. Finally, we give some concrete keys in order to choose which observational data set to assimilate., (PHYS 3)--UCL, 2007

The dynamic thermodynamic Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model (LIM) has been coupled to the OPA primitive equation ocean general circulation model. In the ORCA2-LIM configuration, the model is run on a global domain with 2degrees mean resolution. Model runs are forced with a combined dataset consisting of daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and various climatologies. The model's performance is evaluated with respect to the representation of sea ice and the high latitude oceans. The annual cycle of sea ice growth and decay is realistically captured in both hemispheres, with ice extent, thickness and drift in close agreement with observations. The location of the main sites of deep convection (Labrador and Greenland Seas; continental shelves of marginal seas of the Southern Ocean) is well reproduced. Model deficiencies include a slight overestimation of summer ice extent in the Arctic, and a significant underestimation of multi-year ice in the Weddell Sea. Furthermore, the width of the Arctic Ocean Boundary Current and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current is overestimated. Sensitivity studies indicate that the use of the combined forcing dataset is crucial to achieve a reasonable summer sea ice coverage and that the direct use of the NCEP/NCAR wind stress data leads to an overestimation of sea ice drift velocities. A restoring of sea surface salinity is necessary to avoid spurious open ocean convection in the Weddell Sea. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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