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In 1995, Colombia signed the first legally binding international treaty that criminalizes all forms of violence against women. After this, the government took a number of steps to improve laws and policies, but progress was slow. This paper employs a differences-in differences approach and Demographic and Health Surveys from 2010 and 2015 to estimate the impact of a renewed effort to reduce intimate partner violence (IPV), based on recommendations by the UN. To identify the effect of the national policies, it uses the fact that while the central government passes laws and formulates policies, it partly relies on departments (provinces) to implement them. Of Colombia’s 33 departments, about a quarter had a gender policy in place by 2010. The main finding is that self-reported physical violence decreased from 20% to 16% between 2010 and 2015 in departments that had implemented IPV policies, while it stayed at 18% in the others. JEL Codes I18, J12, K36

Motivated by the lack of sub-national empirical evidence on the relationship between aid and institutional development, this study explores the local effects of World Bank aid on perceived institutional quality in African aid receiving countries. We combine geo-referenced data on the subnational allocation of World Bank aid projects to Africa over the 1995-2014 period with geo-coded survey data for 73,640 respondents across 12 Sub-Saharan African countries. To account for the endogenous placement of World Bank project sites, we compare the estimated effect of living near a site where a World Bank project was under implementation or completed at the time of the interview, to that of living near a site where we know that a World Bank project appeared after the survey date. The empirical results suggest a positive impact of World Bank aid on perceived institutional quality, as measured by citizens’ expressed willingness to abide by key formal institutions. This applies even if we consider overall World Bank aid, i.e. not just projects specifically targeted at institutional development. As may be expected, however, the estimated effects are more pronounced when restricting our attention to projects focusing on institution building. Notably, the observed effects concern finalized projects, not projects still under implementation, highlighting that institutional change is a slow process. JEL classification: F35, O17, O19, O55

Supplemental material, sj-pdf-1-hpq-10.1177_1359105320982042 for Depression symptoms, HIV testing, linkage to ART, and viral suppression among women in a high HIV burden district in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: A cross-sectional household study by Kaymarlin Govender, Dick Durevall, Richard G Cowden, Sean Beckett, Ayesha BM Kharsany, Lara Lewis, Gavin George, Cherie Cawood and David Khanyile in Journal of Health Psychology

Supplemental material, sj-pdf-2-hpq-10.1177_1359105320982042 for Depression symptoms, HIV testing, linkage to ART, and viral suppression among women in a high HIV burden district in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: A cross-sectional household study by Kaymarlin Govender, Dick Durevall, Richard G Cowden, Sean Beckett, Ayesha BM Kharsany, Lara Lewis, Gavin George, Cherie Cawood and David Khanyile in Journal of Health Psychology

Education has been suggested as a ‘vaccine’ against HIV infection, but there is not much causal evidence behind this claim. Moreover, the few studies that exist on the impact of education on HIV infection and related outcomes have focused mostly on women, despite the fact that there are reasons to expect the responses of women and men to differ. This study analyses mechanisms that link education to HIV with a focus on gender differences, using data from four nationally representative surveys in Botswana. To estimate the casual effect, an exogenous one-year increase of junior secondary school is used, which in previous studies has been found to reduce HIV infection rates and increase incomes. The key finding is that women and men responded differently to the reform. It led to delayed sexual debut by up to a year among women and an increase in risky sex among men, measured by number of concurrent sexual partnerships and the likelihood of paying for sex. The increase in risky sex among men is likely to be due to the reform’s positive impact on income. The school reform reduced the likelihood of HIV infection among women, but had no statistically significant impact on this variable among men. JEL: I12, I15, I25, I26

We examine the relationship between school attendance and HIV incidence among young women in South Africa. Our aim is to distinguish a causal effect from correlation. Towards this end, we apply three methods to population-based longitudinal data for 2005-2012 in KwaZulu-Natal. After establishing a negative association, we first use a method that assesses the influence of omitted variables. We then estimate models with exclusion restrictions to remove endogeneity bias, and finally we estimate models that control for unobserved factors that remain constant over time. All the three methods have strengths and weaknesses, but none of them suggests a causal effect. Thus, interventions that increase school attendance in KwaZulu-Natal would probably not mechanically reduce HIV risk for young women. Although the impact of school attendance could vary depending on context, unobserved variables are likely to be an important reason for the common finding of a negative association between school attendance and HIV incidence in the literature.

JEL Codes: D43, O19, P46 This paper analyses how the premium customers pay for Fairtrade-labelled coffee is distributed in the Swedish market, using information on costs of production and scanner data on almost all roasted and ground coffee products sold by retailers. A key finding is that roasters and retailers get 43–70%, while producer countries, in this paper comprising coffee farmers, cooperatives, middlemen, exporters and Fairtrade International, get 24–51%. Fairtrade Sweden gets 5–8%. These values are upper and lower bounds that reflect assumptions made about the additional costs of producing roasted and ground Fairtrade coffee, given the cost of beans and the Fairtrade license, and whether conventional coffee is compared with organic or non-organic Fairtrade coffees. Since roasters’ and retailers’ margins are higher for Fairtrade than conventional coffee, there is evidence that Fairtrade retail prices are higher than the level attributable to costs. However, producer countries receive a significantly larger share of the premium paid than reported in earlier studies, which are either dated or analyse very small samples of coffees.

Cost pass-through to retail prices shows how changes in marginal costs are allocated between producers and consumers, and it is therefore closely related to market structure and competition. This paper uses Swedish data on coffee products at the barcode level to evaluate pass-through from the cost of green coffee beans, the main marginal cost, to the retail price of roasted and ground coffee. First long-run cost pass-through is estimated for each product, and then regression is used to analyse how pass-through varies across market shares, retailer-owned brands and other product characteristics. A general result is that pass-through is roughly complete for products with large market shares, while those with small market shares have low pass-through rates. There is no evidence that retailer-owned brands have higher pass-through than brand-name products with similar market shares, which would be the case if retailer-owned brands avoided double marginalization through vertical integration. Thus, although there is not perfect competition in the Swedish coffee market, a large part of it appears to be highly competitive. JEL: L11, L13, L89

Several studies report that schooling protects against HIV infection in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the effect of secondary school attendance on the probability of HIV incidence among young women aged 15-24, using panel data from rural KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa. Three approaches are used to distinguish causation from selection: instrumentation to identify the causal effect, a fixed effects model to control for constant unobserved factors and assessments of the bias from selection on unobserved variables. Although there is a strong negative association between secondary school attendance and HIV incidence, we are not able to find support for a causal effect. Thus, there is no evidence that interventions that increase secondary school attendance in KwaZulu-Natal would mechanically reduce HIV risk for young women. Our focus on school attendance, in contrast to studies that analyze school attainment, might explain the negative finding. JEL: I12, I29, O12

Consumers pay a premium for Fair Trade coffee, often assuming that it mainly benefits poor coffee farmers. However, several studies report that most of the premium accrues to actors in the consumer countries, such as roasters and retailers. This paper analyses how the returns to Fair Trade are distributed among bean producer countries, roasters and retailers, and Fairtrade Sweden, using scanner data on 185 products from Sweden and information about costs of production. The distribution depends on how much more costly it is to produce Fair Trade coffee compared to conventional coffee, given costs of beans and licences. Assuming the difference is 5 SEK per kg (about USD 0.80), which is on the high side, roasters and retailers get 61%, while producer countries, i.e., coffee farmers, cooperatives, middlemen, exporters and Fairtrade International, get 31%. The rest accrues to Fairtrade Sweden. These estimates are uncertain, but there is there strong evidence that Fair Trade retail prices are higher than the level attributable to the costs of Fair Trade beans and licences.

This paper shows how a developing country, Lao PDR, imports high glutinous rice prices by exporting its staple food to neighboring countries, Vietnam and Thailand. Lao PDR has extensive export controls on rice, generating a sizable difference between domestic and international prices. Controls are relaxed after good harvests, leading to a surge in exports early in the season and rapidly rising prices later in the year. There is thus a strong case for removal of trade restrictions since they give rise to price spikes, keep the long-term price of glutinous rice low, and thereby hinder increases in income from agriculture. Although this is a case study of Lao PDR, the findings may equally apply to other developing countries that export their staple food. JEL: Q11, Q17, Q18, F15

We investigate the relationship between intimate partner violence (IPV) and HIV among married women using Demographic and Health Survey data from ten sub-Saharan African countries, and find a strong association. The association is due to higher HIV risk among violent men; neither women’s decreased ability to protect themselves from HIV transmission within marriage, nor their risky sexual behavior, explains the link. Thus, it is not violence per se that drives the spread of HIV, but the fact that violent men are more likely to become HIV positive and then infect their wives. Programs that aim at reducing HIV by eliminating IPV should therefore also focus on men’s risky sexual behavior. JEL Classification: I14; I15; J12

Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda signed the Treaty for the establishment of the East African Community (EAC) in 1999, which entered into force in July 2000. In 2007 it was signed by Burundi and Rwanda. According to the Treaty, EAC should first form a customs union, then a common market and a monetary union, and finally a political union. The Customs Union was formally completed in 2010, and Common Market Protocol was signed in 2009. Currently the intention is to sign the East African Monetary Union protocol 2012, while the date for actual implementation of the common currency is uncertain. The purpose of this note is to discuss preconditions for an effective monetary union among the EAC members, with a focus on Rwanda. It first outlines potential economic benefits and costs of a monetary union, and then discusses political and institutional preconditions. It concludes that although there are potentially substantive economic net-benefits, a monetary union is a risky project for political reasons. The political will among policymakers is key to successful implementation, and it could vanish with a change of government or because of discontent among influential lobby groups. However, the process towards forming are monetary union is appears to be highly beneficial the EAC members, both directly by improving monetary policy and indirectly by contributing to economic integration. JEL classification: F15; F5

During the global food crisis, Ethiopia experienced an unprecedented increase in inflation, among the highest in Africa. Using monthly data over the past decade, we estimate models of inflation to identify the importance of the factors contributing to CPI inflation and three of its major components: cereal prices, food prices, and non-food prices. Our main finding is that movements in international food and goods prices, measured in domestic currency, determined the long-run evolution of domestic prices. In the short run, agricultural supply shocks affected food inflation, causing large deviations from long-run price trends. Monetary policy seems to have accommodated price shocks, but money supply growth affected short-run non-food price inflation. Our results suggest that when analyzing inflation in developing economies with a large food share in consumer prices, world food prices and domestic agricultural production should be considered. Omitting these factors can lead to biased results and misguided policy decisions.

This paper carries out a critical reappraisal of the two contending theories purporting to explain long-run government spending: Wagner’s Law and different variants of the ratchet effect. We analyze data spanning from the early 19th century until the present day in Sweden and the United Kingdom. Hence, in contrast to previous studies, we evaluate the validity of Wagner’s Law and the ratchet effect hypothesis over a very long time period, starting at the beginning of industrialization. Cointegration analysis is used to investigate the long-run relationships between government expenditure and GDP, focusing on sub-periods and structural breaks. Moreover, we test the ratchet effect hypothesis by estimating models which allow for asymmetric adjustment. According to our main results, Wagner’s Law does not hold in the long run, although the data are consistent with Wagner’s Law between roughly 1860 and the mid 1970s. This can be traced to the formation of the modern public sector, including the introduction of public education, health care, and so forth. Yet Wagner’s Law did not hold during the initial industrialization phase (before 1860), and in recent periods GDP only affects the government spending share when we control for population age structure. Finally, we find some evidence of asymmetric adjustment in the UK, particularly in the post-WWII period. However, the ratchet effect is not a general cause of the growth of government spending.