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How is it possible to recover the state-space representation after solving a DSGE model in Dynare? This note presents how to simulate impulse-response functions and the dynamics of a system after a series of exogenous shocks after solving the model with Dynare. I present a step-by-step framework and apply it to a simple Real Business Cycles model and a basic New Keynesian model. Nevertheless, the same structure can be used in large DSGE models. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

This thesis focuses on evaluating the "Prospects of Inflation Targeting in the WAEMU countries" in the wakeof the new institutional reform followed by the WAMU and the BCEAO. This reform must be accompanied byan explicit operational strategy insofar as its major innovations are very close to a policy of inflation targeting.Accordingly, we assess the impact of monetary policy of the BCEAO that focused on fixed exchange ratesince independence. In this respect, we manifest the inability of the fixed exchange rate policy to anchorinflation expectations in the WAEMU countries and the potential contribution regarding the announcement oftarget in controlling inflation (Chapter 1). In addition, we demonstrate, on the one hand, that the fixedexchange rate policy was not the cause of inflation contained in the WAEMU, and on the other, it providespoor results in terms of high and sustained economic growth (Chapter 2). Consequently, we recommend aframework of combination of an intermediate exchange rate regime and an inflation targeting strategy forWAEMU countries. Hence, an inflation target has been determined and it appears to be different from onecountry to another, against the 2% target announced by the Monetary Policy Committee of the BCEAO(Chapter 3). Finally, we define the inflation targeting rule, and show that the best optimal rule that monetaryauthorities adopt in an inflation targeting framework should ideally, reconciles nominal anchor and economicregulation (Chapter 4)., La présente thèse porte sur « Les Perspectives de Ciblage de l'Inflation dans les Pays de l'UEMOA » dontl'opportunité pourrait être bien saisie à la suite de la nouvelle réforme institutionnelle de l'UMOA et de laBCEAO. Cette réforme doit s'accompagner d'une stratégie opérationnelle explicite dans la mesure où sesinnovations majeures sont très proches d'une politique de ciblage de l'inflation. Pour cela, nous évaluons lapolitique monétaire de la BCEAO axée en partie sur un régime de change fixe depuis les indépendances.Ainsi, après avoir montré la nécessité pour les Banque Centrale d’ancrer les anticipations inflationnistesdans les pays de l'UEMOA et l'apport potentiel de l'annonce d'un objectif d'inflation dans la maîtrise du tauxd'inflation (Chapitre 1), nous montrons que la politique de change fixe n'a pas été à l'origine des tauxd'inflation relativement contenus dans la l'Union, mais pire, elle procure de mauvaises résultats en termesd'une croissance économique élevée et soutenue (Chapitre 2). En cela, nous recommandons pour l’Unionun cadre de type d’une combinaison d’un régime de change intermédiaire et d’une stratégie de ciblage del’inflation. C’est ainsi qu’une cible d’inflation a été déterminée et, elle apparaît différente aussi bien d’un paysà l’autre que de l’objectif de 2% annoncé par le Comité de Politique Monétaire de la BCEAO (Chapitre 3).Nous terminons en déterminant la règle de ciblage d'inflation, et montrons que la meilleure règle optimaleque les autorités monétaires devraient adopter dans un cadre de ciblage de l'inflation concilie l’ancragenominal et la régulation conjoncturelle (Chapitre 4).

We propose a method for solving and estimating linear rational expectations models that exhibit indeterminacy and we provide step-by-step guidelines for implementing this method in the Matlab-based packages Dynare and Gensys. Our method redefines a subset of expectational errors as new fundamentals. This redefinition allows us to treat indeterminate models as determinate and to apply standard solution algorithms. We provide a selection method, based on Bayesian model comparison, to decide which errors to pick as fundamental and we present simulation results to show how our procedure works in practice.

Macroeconomic models with sticky information include an infinite number of lagged expectations. Several authors have developed specialized solutions algorithms to solve these models under rational expectations. We demonstrate that it is also possible to implement this class of models in Dynare - a widely used software package for solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Using the Dynare macro language one can easily construct and change the required large number of lagged expectation terms. We assess the accuracy of simulations run with different truncation points for the lagged expectations terms and find that the solution is reasonably precise even for moderate truncation points.

Macroeconomic models with sticky information include an infinite number of lagged expectations. Several authors have developed specialized solutions algorithms to solve these models under rational expectations. We demonstrate that it is also possible to implement this class of models in Dynare - a widely used software package for solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Using the Dynare macro language one can easily construct and change the required large number of lagged expectation terms. We assess the accuracy of simulations run with different truncation points for the lagged expectations terms and find that the solution is reasonably precise even for moderate truncation points.

The current global financial meltdown draws, once again, attention to the existence of business cycle fluctuations. Experts are of the view that the ongoing crisis is far deeper than the great depression of the 1930s. It should be recalled that the Keynes and Keynesianism was a response to that depression. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to develop a small business cycle model in the spirit of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for Nigeria designed to examine the sources of business cycles, and use the model for policy analysis. This paper considers the implications of three policy shocks namely: monetary supply, technology and export supply on some macroeconomic aggregates. While the paper adopts the Nason and Cogley (1994) and Schorfheide (2000) models, it, however, introduces export sector into the model with a view to capturing the transmission channel of terms of trade. The method of estimation is the Bayesian and the paper uses DYNARE codes (dyn_mat_v4). The results obtained in this study show that the Nigerian business cycle is driven by both real and nominal shocks.

Local (perturbation) methods compute solutions in one point and tend to deliver far lower accuracy levels than global solution methods. We develop a hybrid method that solves for some policy functions locally (using a perturbation method) and that solves for the other policy functions globally (using closed-form expressions and a numerical solver). We applied our hybrid method to solve large-scale RBC models used in the comparison analysis of Kollmann et al. (J Econ Dyn Control 35:186–202, 2011b). We obtain more accurate solutions than those produced by any other (either local or global) solution method participating in that comparison. Our running time is a few seconds. Lilia Maliar and Serguei Maliar acknowledge support from the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación de España and FEDER funds under the project SEJ-2007-62656, the Ivie, and the Generalitat Valenciana under the grants BEST/2011/283 and BEST/2011/282, respectively.

This paper describes in detail the algorithm implemented in Dynare for computing the first order approximated solution of a nonlinear rational expectations model. The core of the algorithm is a generalized Schur decomposition (also known as the QZ decomposition), as advocated by several authors in the litterature. The contribution of the present paper is to focus on implementation details that make the algorithm more generic and more efficient, especially for large models.

Dynare is a software platform for handling a wide class of economic models, in particular dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) and overlapping generations (OLG) models. The models solved by Dynare include those relying on the rational expectations hypothesis, wherein agents form their expectations about the future in a way consistent with the model. But Dynare is also able to handle models where expectations are formed differently: on one extreme, models where agents perfectly anticipate the future; on the other extreme, models where agents have limited rationality or imperfect knowledge of the state of the economy and, hence, form their expectations through a learning process. Dynare offers a user-friendly and intuitive way of describing these models. It is able to perform simulations of the model given a calibration of the model parameters and is also able to estimate these parameters given a dataset. Dynare is a free software, which means that it can be downloaded free of charge, that its source code is freely available, and that it can be used for both non-profit and for-profit purposes.

In this paper we investigate the Smets & Wouters (2003a) DSGE model for Brazil, through a numerical simulation based on the Dynare code (developed by Cepremap). Impulse Response functions are presented and a Bayesian estimation is also conducted from the prior distributions of the parameters.