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Purpose Investment in power and electricity generation for replacing aging infrastructure with new represents a major challenge for developing countries. This paper therefore aims to examine infrastructure projects’ characteristics and how socio-political and economic investment environments interplay to influence the degree of private sector participation (PPP) in infrastructure delivery in Ghana. Design/methodology/approach Using World Bank Public-private infrastructure advisory facility (PPIAF) and private participation in infrastructure (PPI) project database data from 1994 to 2013, binary logistic regression was used to: determine the probability of a higher or lower degree of PPP; and examine the significance of factors that are determinants of private investments. Findings The findings reveal that the private sector is more likely to invest in a higher degree of PPP infrastructure projects through greenfield and concession vehicles as opposed to management and leasing contracts. From the extant literature, drivers of PPP included infrastructure project characteristics and the social–economic–political health of the host country. However, the significance, direction and magnitude of these drivers vary. Originality/value This paper identifies investment drivers to PPP advisors and project managers and seeks to engender discussion among government policymakers responsible for promoting and managing PPP projects. Direction for future work seeks to explore competitive routes to infrastructure debt and equity finance options that finance energy projects.

This paper assesses the impact of power infrastructure investments in the developing economy of Ghana following sector restructure and reform and develops a forecasting model for predicting the future trend in electricity generation and electricity tariffs. Secondary data sourced via the World Bank Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF)/Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) Project Database for the period 1994 to 2013 and Energy Commission for the period 2000 to 2014 were used to analyze Ghana’s power generation statistics using descriptive, exploratory data analysis and polynomial prediction models. Results reveal that reform has stimulated independent power producer (IPP) investment, particularly in thermal generation capacities to complement hydro alternatives. It is predicted that in the medium term the electricity tariff will continue to rise while electricity generation will decline if additional investments in power infrastructure are not made. This paper provides a case study that critically appraises Ghana’s power sector reform; exposes the gap between policy implementation and policy objectives attainment; and proposes a simple yet novel polynomial prediction model that can facilitate short-to-medium term planning of generation and tariff management.