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Although considerable research has examined the causal rapport between crude oil prices and macroeconomic performance, the interplay between energy import dependence and macroeconomic fluctuations remains unexplored. By employing the pooled mean group autoregressive lag (PMG-ARDL) model, this study is motivated to examine the interplay between energy import dependency and macroeconomic instability in 12 net energy-importing emerging nations from 1996-2019. This study also includes governance quality, bank credit and government spending as important control variables in macroeconomic instability function. The study’s findings demonstrate that reliance on overseas energy hampers macroeconomic resilience. This study further found the positive impact of governance quality and government spending on macroeconomic stability while bank credit adversely influences it. These results were also verified by using the feasible generalized least square (FGLS) method. In terms of policies, this study suggests that increasing energy import dependency should be gradually minimized to enhance emerging economies’ macroeconomic resilience. However, raising energy import tariffs and building energy self-sufficiency could be the key to reducing energy import dependency. This study further suggests that policymakers should consider governance quality and government spending as important determinants of macroeconomic stability. Besides, monetary policy needs to understand bank credit’s adverse impact on macroeconomic stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale shocks directly affect some firms and households and indirectly affect others through general equilibrium spillovers. In this paper, I describe how researchers can directly estimate spillovers using quasi-experimental or experimental variation. I then argue that spillover estimates suffer from distinct sources of mechanical bias that standard empirical tools cannot resolve. These biases are particularly relevant in finance and macroeconomics, where multiple spillover channels and nonlinear effects are common. I offer guidance on how to detect and overcome mechanical biases. An application and several examples highlight that the suggested methods are broadly relevant and can inform policy and multiplier calculations. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article studies how the structure of centralized markets can affect efficient allocation in anonymous decentralized trades. In line with previous studies, we show that efficiency in decentralized markets can be sustained in a moneyless finite-number-of-agents setting if agents are patient enough and the price is observed with noise. We additionally show that, if there are no gains from trade, then the price associated with an inactive centralized market is zero irrespective of the noise. Thus, the non-essentiality-of-money result is a more robust phenomenon when the centralized market acts only as a coordination device. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The significance of digital investment has grown substantially, enabled by advancing technology, which provides digital monitoring of investment instruments. Consequently, analyzing these instruments has become imperative. In particular, investors are inclined to compare new investment opportunities with well-established global stock markets, seeking to capitalize on their advanced financial literacy. This study aims to employ econometric analysis to explore the dynamic relationship between Bitcoin and the BIST100 and NASDAQ 100 indices. The time frame for this investigation spans from January 1, 2017, to March 10, 2022. Stationarity was confirmed through unit root tests (ADF, PP, KPSS, ZA, FADF, and FFFFF ADF) for the subsequent utilization of Autoregressive Conditional Variance Models. Additionally, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Variance and Dynamic Conditional Correlation Tests were conducted. Results from the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Test model revealed no statistically significant dynamic conditional correlation between Bitcoin and BIST 100. Conversely, a negative and significant dynamic conditional correlation emerged between Bitcoin and NASDAQ 100. Investors should not only monitor the market but also review academic studies before making investment decisions. In this regard, this study holds significant importance. The study is limited to the BTC, BIST, and NASDAQ indices. Researchers interested in the topic can increase the dataset to further enrich the study.

The existence of a clear and credible anchor for inflation expectations has proved to be a fundamental ingredient to keep actual inflation closer to the price stability objective.[7] Measuring Inflation Expectations Despite their key role for monetary policy, measuring, and sometimes interpreting, inflation expectations is not simple. (2) Probabilities inferred from inflation options: <0 ( <1) is the probability of inflation being smaller than 0 (1) on average in the next 5 years and >3 ( >4) is the probability of inflation being larger than 3 (4) on average in the next 5 years; 50-day moving averages Inflation Expectations and the ECB Monetary Policy As I have recently observed,[23] evidence suggests that long-term inflation expectations in the euro area are substantially anchored (reflecting the overall credibility of monetary policy) and short- to medium-term expectations, while still remaining very volatile, are clearly on a downward trend. Inflation Expectations and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Monetary policy affects the real economy and inflation with "long and variable" lags, to use Milton Friedman's famous expression, and through a complex system of channels known as the monetary transmission mechanism. Keywords: Inflation; Monetary policy; Euro area; Shocks; E00; E31; E42; E43 EN Inflation Monetary policy Euro area Shocks E00 E31 E42 E43 111 129 19 10/04/23 20230901 NES 230901 Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-023-09771-y. [Extracted from the article]

Developing artificial intelligence (AI) technology requires data. In many domains, government data far exceed in magnitude and scope data collected by the private sector, and AI firms often gain access to such data when providing services to the state. We argue that such access can stimulate commercial AI innovation in part because data and trained algorithms are shareable across government and commercial uses. We gather comprehensive information on firms and public security procurement contracts in China's facial recognition AI industry. We quantify the data accessible through contracts by measuring public security agencies' capacity to collect surveillance video. Using a triple-differences strategy, we find that data-rich contracts, compared to data-scarce ones, lead recipient firms to develop significantly and substantially more commercial AI software. Our analysis suggests a contribution of government data to the rise of China's facial recognition AI firms, and that states' data collection and provision policies could shape AI innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments around the world have instituted several economic policy responses to swathe the real sectors of their economies from the ramifications of the pandemic. However, most economies still remain vulnerable to the pandemic. In this paper, we evaluate and quantify the potential short-run impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activities in eighteen (18) developing countries using monthly time series data on Industrial Production Index and Composite Index of Economic Activity from January 2010 to December 2020. In addition, we employ a state-space model (a Bayesian structural time series model) to estimate the absolute and relative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activities in those countries. The results of our Bayesian posterior estimate show that, in relative terms, economic activities of six countries have significantly reduced during the occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic, usually between -4.4% and -16%. Our Bayesian posterior distribution graphs show that the significant negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activities of most of the countries are rather short-lived. This finding suggests that the real sectors of those countries have seen a recovery after being adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We recommend a continuation of the policy tools introduced by the central banks and the international organizations with a key focus on sectors of that economy that involves significant human interactions such as the hospitality and tourism as well as the aviation industry which was hugely hit by the pandemic.

Over the last few decades world population has undergone an unprecedented process of aging, which has been having a significant impact on the macroeconomy. In this paper we propose a new agent-based macro model designed to study the macroeconomic consequences of aging. Using the model as a computational laboratory we test four hypotheses based on empirical evidence - namely that aging decreases real output and real interest rates, while increases trend inflation and income inequality. In general, performing several sensitivity analysis exercises and controlling for three different pension systems (pay-as-you-go and fully-funded), we find enough evidence supporting the hypotheses, especially in the fully-funded scenario. Moreover, we assess the ability of three policy responses to contrast the effects of aging: increasing the retirement age, reducing the amount of pensions and stimulating technological progress, finding that the last one is probably the best. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I replicate all tables and figures from fourteen papers in Quantitative Macroeconomics, with an emphasis on incomplete market heterogeneous agent models. I report three main findings: (i) all (non-welfare related) major findings of the papers replicate, (ii) welfare findings based on linear approximation methods—1st-order perturbation, linear and log-linearization around steady-state, and linear-quadratic methods—should be treated as quantitatively suspect, (iii) decisions around methods for discretizing exogenous shocks have a large and unappreciated influence on results and should be prominently discussed in papers. While some smaller aspects of the papers do not replicate exactly, rather than nitpick in the body of this paper I instead describe some lessons learnt that may be useful for practitioners working with Quantitative Macroeconomic models. The replications use global methods allowing for non-linearities and I argue that these are important and need to be more widely used. I provide a checklist that researchers can use when trying to check that their work will be more easily reproducible. Matlab codes implementing the replications using the VFI Toolkit are provided, and full results of all replications are given in the online appendix. I conclude with three core points for best practice: (i) codes be made directly available (e.g., on github, not only 'on request', and not just inside a zip file), (ii) report not just baseline parameters but also hyperparameters, equilibrium values, non-baseline parameters and initial conditions, and (iii) replication means rewriting codes from scratch, not just re-running available codes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Innovative synthetic fuels for advanced propulsion systems, such as methanol and ammonia, and synthetic blended fuels (E00, E10, and E30), known for their high volatility, are often injected directly into combustion chambers. It follows that Eulerian–Lagrangian spray models need to accurately capture the spray collapse as a consequence of flash boiling onset and be capable of proficiently handling the preferential evaporation of multi-component fuels in evaporative scenarios. So, we performed the assessment of an Eulerian–Lagrangian CFD code for simulating methanol and E00 gasoline blend sprays in both early and late injection conditions involving flash boiling conditions and preferential evaporation. The adoption of an effervescent breakup model and of a non-equilibrium phase transition model for the discrete phase allows the adoption of a setup that is almost completely free from specific constant tuning, especially for what concerns the breakup model. We validated the simulations using experimental PLV maps of methanol and E00 sprays issued from the ECN Spray M injector. The results highlight a significantly different morphology of the methanol spray compared to the E00 one under late injection conditions. Under stratified combustion, low-volatile fuels are likely to be ignited first, and the flame propagates toward the high-volatile fuels. The spray collapse was also correctly reproduced, inducing the presence of a low-pressure zone and modifying the spray morphology. [Display omitted] • Eulerian–Lagrangian unified CFD approach for simulating evaporative and flash boiling liquid sprays. • Investigation of methanol and gasoline direct injections. • Evaluation of preferential evaporation of multi-component fuels. • Implementation of a thermal non-equilibrium phase change model and an effervescent breakup model. • Characterization of spray collapse and flash boiling phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim is to investigate the Information Communication Technology (ICT) on GDP growth in Western Balkan countries from 2000 - 2019. Different econometric techniques were used such as pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects, and the Hausman Taylor model with instrumental variables (IV). The findings indicate that fixed telephone subscriptions and individuals using the internet have a positive effect on GDP growth, while the fixed broadband subscriptions and mobile cellular subscriptions have a negative effect on GDP growth. The results also show general government final consumption has a negative effect on GDP growth, whereas foreign direct investment has a positive effect on GDP growth, but the coefficient is statistically insignificant. The study will serve for policy makers to invest more in ICT since this will contribute to the economic growth and welfare benefits. There is no study that has been analyzed about ICT in Western Balkan countries, thus findings will be valuable to the government.

The COVID-19 crisis has put the European Union's (EU) ability to respond to external challenges to test. It is not a new issue that has arisen due to the current crisis. The global economic crisis of 2008, and, in particular, the sovereign debt crisis of 2010, highlighted the need for institutional, policy and political reform to ensure the stability and long-term sustainability of the EU project. The EU's asymmetric degrees of integration, in terms of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and non-EMU members, resulted in a diverse response to the crisis and, more importantly, mixed-effects from monetary and fiscal policies. This study aims to research the impact of monetary and fiscal policies between 2007 and 2015 on economic growth and employment. The findings show that loose monetary policies at the EU, EMU and non-EMU levels boosted economic growth and development. On the other hand, restrictive fiscal policy had favourably influenced GDP and employment by reducing inflationary pressures produced by expansive monetary policy. However, fiscal policy had a greater impact in the non-EMU countries, demonstrating that this policy can act as a stabilizing force in the face of an overly expansive and common monetary policy. In order to respond effectively to the current and future crises, the EU government should overhaul the way monetary and fiscal policy is conducted and coordinated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic experts’ predictions of a slowdown in the EU’s global economy and economic growth in the year 2020 were based on various risks and uncertainties existing on a world scale, ranging from the US-China trade war, traditionally strained relations of the EU and the US on the one hand and the Russian Federation on the other, all the way to BREXIT and economic migration to developed EU countries. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has further aggravated those forecasts, so that the entire EU is recording a historic decline in all macroeconomic aggregates. The beginning of the pandemic in the EU was accompanied by the complete border lockdown of the entire Union, which greatly affected the economies of the member states. The EU is experiencing a decline of both real and nominal GDP, declining incomes, employment decline and unemployment increase. This paper will investigate the impact of COVID-19 onto GDP, unemployment, and EU public debt. Correlation-regression analysis confirms the positive correlation between these variables and the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to the economic crisis, a crisis of EU health systems, which requires huge economic investments. A more prominent economic recovery is hard to expect until the global pandemic ends. One thing is for certain, this economic crisis will continue in 2021, whereby a more significant recovery is expected only in the year 2022. Certainly, it will take years to make up for the economic losses caused by the pandemic.

India is one of the most populated countries in the world and was famously known as the golden bird. It was known for its rich cultural heritage and some of the world’s most significant educational institutions. Over the countless decades and centuries, the invaders exploited the resources for their advantage. At the decline of the independence in 1947, it was left backward with one of the poorest economies of the world of that time. The richness of erstwhile India, the status of the golden bird, the sacred intellectual space that India occupied has only textual value for the present generation. Through this academic paper, an attempt has been made to address the following questions: what was the state of the economy of India during the pre- and post-independence period, how has India transformed herself from one of the most impoverished economies in 1947 to currently the third-largest economy in the world, and how is the current economic and non-economic status of India.

The Israeli economy in the first two decades of the 21st century is an example of an economic transformation that may serve as a role model for addressing many challenges to economic growth. Data from this period have shown significant developments in economic growth over this relatively short period of time and indicate that these advances are attributable to policies targeting inflation, labor force participation and education. While challenges remain—including economic inequality, suboptimal health care and the threat of coronavirus pandemic to global growth—we explore developments evidenced to promote economic growth.

Finally, Oshitani warns that the COVID-19 pandemic is still evolving, and the pandemic's negative impacts are likely to continue to occur in the coming months or probably years and it is too early to determine which countries are more successful than others in reducing the impact of COVID-19. Keywords: E00; E12; E31; E52; F13; I10; I14; I15; I18; I19; P46; P48 EN E00 E12 E31 E52 F13 I10 I14 I15 I18 I19 P46 P48 1 17 17 01/05/22 20220101 NES 220101 The COVID-19 Pandemic and Asia The COVID-19 pandemic has been both a public health and a socio-economic crisis on a global scale. Atsushi Miyawaki and Yusuke Tsugawa (2022) review the pandemic's impact on public health in Asian countries, with a special focus on why Asian countries experienced fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths during the initial few months of the pandemic before vaccines became available and propose perspectives on how we can be better prepared for future pandemics. Miyawaki and Tsugawa also find that the COVID-19 pandemic has indirectly impacted on non-COVID-19 diseases, as health care systems for acute and chronic diseases have been disrupted due to the concentrated workload generated by the care of COVID 19 patients. [Extracted from the article]

This paper surveys the recent literature on the economic impacts of SARS, MERS, and COVID‐19, which Asian countries have experienced in the past two decades. In particular, we provide a detailed summary of how each of the past infectious diseases has impacted on the Asian economies and the extent of that impact. This paper also documents how the governments of Asian countries have responded to the COVID‐19 shocks with their economic policies, and discusses the effectiveness of these economic policies to mitigate the COVID‐19 shocks on their economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a multiple-goal investment strategy for sovereign wealth funds. In our investment strategy, we embed the Black-Litterman (B-L) model into the mean variance mental accounting (MVMA) approach. The B-L method provides a means of modeling return expectations, and the MVMA framework allows the derivation of the optimal asset allocation from a global investment perspective, in a response to a specific macroeconomic environment.