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Purpose: This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each parameter, and we examine how changes within these ranges can alter the outcomes of fiscal policy. In this way, we aim to highlight the importance of these parameters in the formulation and evaluation of fiscal policy. Design/methodology/approach: The role of fiscal policy, its effects and multipliers continues to be a subject of intense debate in macroeconomics. Despite adopting a New Keynesian approach within a macroeconomic model, the reactions of macroeconomic variables to fiscal shocks can vary across different contexts and theoretical frameworks. This paper aims to investigate these diverse reactions by conducting a sensitivity analysis of parameters. Specifically, the study examines how key variables respond to fiscal shocks under different parameter settings. By analyzing the behavioral dynamics of these variables, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion on fiscal policy. The findings offer valuable insights to enrich the understanding of the complex relationship between fiscal shocks and macroeconomic outcomes, thus facilitating informed policy debates. Findings: This paper aims to investigate key elements of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The focus is on the calibration of parameters and their impact on macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation. The study also examines how different parameter settings affect the response of monetary policy to fiscal measures. In conclusion, this study has relied on theoretical exploration and a comprehensive review of existing literature. The parameters and their relationships have been analyzed within a robust theoretical framework, offering valuable insights for further research on how these factors influence model forecasts and inform policy recommendations derived from New Keynesian DSGE models. Moving forward, it is recommended that future work includes empirical analyses to test the reliability and effectiveness of parameter calibrations in real-world conditions. This will contribute to enhancing the accuracy and relevance of DSGE models for economic policy decision-making. Originality/value: This study is motivated by the aim to provide a deeper understanding of the roles macroeconomic model parameters play concerning responses to expansionary fiscal policies and the subsequent reactions of monetary authorities. Comprehensive reviews that encompass this breadth of relationships within a single text are rare in the literature, making this work a valuable contribution to stimulating discussions on macroeconomic policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fiscal policy's impact on the real exchange rates is highly controversial in theory and practice but noteworthy for macroeconomic policy. This issue is more pertinent in developing countries with an active fiscal policy or wider fiscal space but is explored less. To our knowledge, the fiscal policy impact on the real exchange rate in India is not documented. Against this backdrop, this study explores this in India involving disaggregated data of government consumption and investment spending and a few related variables like trade openness, private consumption spending, and money supply for the period 1996:1–2023:1. The results corroborate long-run associations of real exchange rate and some combinations of the selected other variables. The real exchange rate dynamics estimated through the cointegrated vector autoregressive model followed by an impulse response analysis have shown that government investment spending causes a real appreciation. In contrast, government and private consumption spending exert pressure to depreciate the real exchange rate. Trade openness is another potent predictor of the real exchange rate. On the other hand, no significant impact of the money supply on the real exchange rate is noticed. The results accentuate effective fiscal allocation may be a policy tool for stabilizing the Indian rupee. The unique findings on the Indian economy may also help understand the fiscal effect of real exchange rates in other developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A complete understanding of the interplay between environmental regulations and fiscal decentralization for the realization of health outcomes is crucial for policy formulation and decision-making. The aim of the study is to investigate both policy variables' separate and combined impacts using data on four BRICS economies from 2000 to 2020. The study has employed the novel method of moments quantile regression to quantify the effect. The findings of the study show (i) a significant impact of regulations on health outcomes in higher quantiles. Environmental regulations have a strong positive impact on all three-health proxies, that is, health expenditures, life expectancy, and the number of infant deaths. Total revenue and expenditure decentralization affect health outcomes positively, while tax revenue decentralization negatively impacts them, with the effect being stronger in the lower quantiles; (ii) the combined impact of decentralization and environmental regulations turned out to be negative and significant in our study; and (iii) all variables have unidirectional causality. However, with tax revenue decentralization, health expenditures, life expectancy, and infant deaths have bidirectional causality. This finding has a strong policy implication for the policymakers. Although both policies positively impact health indicators, their interaction leads to deteriorating health outcomes. From a policy point of view, it is suggested to strike a balance between regulations and fiscal decentralization to realize the full potential of this policy mix to get better health outcomes. This study adds to previous research by incorporating the interconnected impact of environmental regulations and fiscal decentralization on health outcomes in BRICS economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to provide new insights into the relationship between fiscal policy and total factor productivity (TFP) while accounting for several economic and econometric issues of the phenomenon like non-stationarity, fiscal feedback effects, persistence in productivity, country heterogeneity and unobserved global shocks and local spillovers affecting heterogeneously the countries in the sample. Design/methodology/approach: The paper is empirical. It builds an Error Correction Model (ECM) specification within a dynamic heterogeneous framework with common correlated effects and models both reverse causality and feedback effects. Findings: The results of this study highlight some new findings relative to the existing related literature. The outcomes suggest some relevant evidence at both the academic and policy levels: (1) the causal effects going from fiscal deficit/surplus to TFP are heterogeneous across countries; (2) the effects depend on the time horizon considered; (3) the long-run dynamics of TFP are positively impacted by improvements in fiscal budget, but only if the austerity measures do not exert slowdowns in aggregate growth. Originality/value: The main originality of this study is methodological, with possible extensions to related phenomena. Relative to the existing literature, the gains of this study rely on the way econometric techniques, recently proposed in the literature, are adapted to the economic relationship of interest. The endogeneity due to the existence of reverse causality is modelled without implying relevant performance losses of the models. Moreover, this is the first article that questions whether the effects of fiscal budget on productivity depend on the impact of the former on aggregate output growth, thus emphasising the importance of the quality of fiscal adjustments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the influence of fiscal councils on public opinion regarding fiscal issues. Using a survey-framing experiment on a representative sample of 900 inhabitants of the Czech Republic, the study evaluates how the framing of a message regarding the negative effects of rising government debt would impact the attitudes of respondents. The results show that framing the message as coming from the Czech Fiscal Council does not increase its credibility. Fiscal councils should not focus on persuading the public of their viewpoint on public finance issues, but rather utilize the knowledge of agenda-setting theory to gain media attention for fiscal issues.

Ghana was the second African country to adopt the inflation-targeting framework in 2007. The country faced persistently high levels of inflation, exceeding 100 percent in the early 1980s. Since the adoption of the inflation targeting regime, the inflation rate has decreased and remains below 20 percent.

This study offers unique insights into the threshold-based influence of currency devaluation (CD) on external debt sustainability (EDS) in designated Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The absence of evidence from this viewpoint, particularly in SSA, inspires this new assessment. On this premise, the study utilizes two innovative estimation procedures: smooth transition regression (STR) and multiple thresholds nonlinear ARDL (MTNARDL) to estimate the sign-based and magnitude-based asymmetric influence of CD on EDS. The outcomes indicate that first, an average CD threshold of 21.1% is consistent with EDS in the designated nations; second, a small CD significantly reduces the external debt–GDP ratio and improves sustainability, while a very high CD largely worsens the EDS problem; third, in the CD regime, devaluation has more detrimental effects on external debt burden; fourth, exceedingly large changes in exchange rate (whether positive or negative) essentially affect the countries’ EDS negatively; and fifth, the adverse effect of large depreciation on EDS is greater than that of large appreciation. The study recommends, amongst others, that heavily indebted countries with sizeable external debt denominated in foreign currency should, as a matter of urgency, avoid excessive and escalated large percentages of devaluation or exchange rate depreciation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides a large dataset on PSE using a parametric approach, and covering 158 countries of all income levels, over the period 1990–2017. The analysis includes four sectors: education, health, infrastructure, and public administration. We further consider three efficiency indicators regarding the 'Musgravian' tasks for government: allocation, distribution, and stabilization. After computing the efficiency scores for our sample countries, we examine their determinants using a wide range of economic and institutional factors. Our key findings are that trade globalization, factor productivity, and institutional quality seem to be important determinants of total PSE. The results remain robust to alternative specifications and methods. Finally, we provide additional evidence by exploring the sensitivity of the main determinants to different country groups, considering the level of economic development, geographical regions, and fragile states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem in the presence of a reserve requirement. Banks pay depositors the deposit rate and receive the borrowing rate on loans. Equivalence fails because the reserve requirement drives a wedge between the deposit and borrowing rates implying that government faces a different intertemporal tradeoff than savers. A tax cut financed by an increase in government debt causes an increase in savings but only increases the supply of loanable funds by a fraction because of the reserve requirement. This causes interest rates to rise and consumption to fall. We also show that if the central bank pays interest on reserves at the borrowing rate, the various rates are equal, however, equivalence still fails. The reason is that future taxes to pay down the debt must be higher for the central bank to pay interest and consumption will fall in response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decade, the most salient changes in macroeconomic conditions in developed economies have included rising government debt and population aging, which are strongly correlated with each other. This paper investigates fiscal multipliers by disentangling the effects of population aging from those of government debt. Our analysis, which uses heterogeneous panel data from 24 OECD economies, shows that while fiscal policy is ineffective for economies with high-debt levels, it is effective for economies with low-debt levels. Furthermore, the estimation results reveal that fiscal policy is ineffective for aged economies, regardless of the level of government debt. However, for nonaged economies, while fiscal policy leads to negative effects on output in times of high debt, its positive effects are more pronounced in times of low debt. Our results suggest that, for the effective implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, policy-based stimulation of employment in the labor market is essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThis paper explores the intellectual history of Universal Basic Income (UBI), specifically focusing on Milton Friedman’s Negative Income Tax (NIT) as a precursor. Examining Friedman’s work in the 1940s, the study reveals the polysemic nature of early NIT proposals and underscores the significance of Friedman and Stigler’s engagement with concepts like Abba P. Lerner’s Social Dividend and Kenneth Boulding’s adjustable tax plan, the latter often overlooked in the literature. Contrary to the prevailing view of NIT as solely a poverty alleviation policy, this research also positions it, at this moment, as a macroeconomic steering mechanism. Drawing on Reinhart Koselleck’s categories, theoretical analysis emphasises the importance of exploring diverse “layers of meaning” in early NIT debates, shedding light on nuances that echo contemporary discussions on UBI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the risk spillovers among the world’s top oil & gas firms, accounting for the role of environmental fiscal policies, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and regulatory quality. We find evidence of high risk spillovers among the oil & gas firms, being more intense at the extreme market states. More highly capitalised firms are mostly net transmitters of spillovers across the different market states, but less so at the extreme market states. Net pair-wisely, the network analysis suggests that spillovers are trivial when the market is normal, but complex when it is bullish. Finally, the spillovers are driven by environmental tax and expenditures, EPU, and regulatory quality heterogeneously. These results have important implications for suitable investment decisions and policy-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing studies show the underground economy negatively affects socioeconomic development, focusing on economic and institutional aspects as underlying factors driving its existence. This study examines the relationship between tax reform and the underground economy in 23 developed and emerging countries from 1990 to 2015. Our empirical analysis indicates that tax reforms increasing the societal tax burden expand the underground economy. Notably, expanding the tax base, rather than increasing tax rates, is closely linked to this growth. These findings suggest policymakers should consider the underground economy’s response to tax reforms while promoting tax systems and policy improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates fiscal multipliers and evaluates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in a large panel of 107 developing countries over the medium term. Using Jorda's local projection model, the study finds that fiscal multipliers are more effective during recessionary times than expansion. The findings reveal that fiscal balance and investment are more effective fiscal policy tools to stimulate output growth during recessionary times in developing countries. Quantitatively, the estimates suggest that fiscal multipliers tend to be as low as 0.16 and as large as 2.1 during times of recession. The baseline results broadly hold when fiscal policy shocks are subject to a battery of robustness check exercises in the medium-term framework. Also, the study reports heterogeneities in the size of fiscal multipliers with multipliers being larger and persistent in upper middle-income economies than lower middle-income economies. Furthermore, the study finds that tax-based measures as compared to expenditure-led policies are more stimulative during recessionary times. The study has important policy implications in terms of resorting to different fiscal tools in effectively boosting the output growth during recessionary times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential tax capacity is very important for assessing the tax space for policy response, especially after the COVID-19 crisis. The main objective of this paper is to study the tax capacity of the Albanian economy, relative to other transition economies with the same patterns of development. We rely on a regression-based approach for the period of 1998-2022 to estimate the potential tax capacity and tax effort. The study found that the structure of the economy, per capita income, openness to foreign trade and corruption are the most consistent explanatory variables of the potential tax capacity. The study also found that tax effort is below one for the Albanian economy, and tax-to-GDP collections are below the average level of the transition economies. We conclude that the country should continue improving the governance quality and fighting corruption to improve tax collection. The study does not support further increases in the statutory tax rates.

This study employs panel data encompassing 31 provinces in China, spanning the period from 2010 to 2020, to investigate the distributional impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on green innovation (GI). Employing a panel quantile regression model, the research finds the close association between FDI and GI, particularly considering the local GI foundation. Specifically, FDI plays a crucial and influential role in fostering GI within regions characterized by lower levels of GI. However, it does not have a significant impact on promoting GI in regions with higher levels of GI. Further analysis of regional heterogeneity demonstrates that in coastal areas, FDI exhibits a positive and significant impact on GI in provinces with a moderate level of GI. Conversely, in inland areas, FDI can only facilitate GI in provinces with a high level of GI. The research conclusion suggests that the government should enhance the intensity of FDI and implement tailored policies according to the specific characteristics of coastal and inland regions.

We investigate the impact of fiscal policy on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon and Atlantic Forests. We first construct a theoretical dynamic model to examine the effects of government spending and tax revenues on the environment. We then run a VAR model to test the implications of fiscal policies on Brazilian deforestation, using data from June 1998 to May 2022. Our results suggest that government expenditures reduce deforestation in both forests. Moreover, deficit-inducing and balanced-budget fiscal policy shocks have dampening effects on deforestation, with the latter being more effective. This is good news for developing countries like Brazil. They can combat deforestation through fiscal policy in a way that doesn't worsen their fiscal situation. Our findings were unaltered when we considered the effects of a simulated fiscal policy based on spending on public goods only (social assistance, science and technology, defense, education, health, national security, and transportation).

This research tackles a gap in existing literature by offering empirical insights into the effectiveness of utilizing the Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account (GFECRA) in overseeing total domestic debt, thereby enhancing our comprehension of fiscal policy implications and debt management strategies in South Africa. This study delves the influence of leveraging the GFECRA on total domestic debt in South Africa by analyzing time series data from January 1, 1990, to October 1, 2023. Employing the Vector Error Correction (VEC) model, the results reveal a negative lag impact of GFECRA on the present government debt levels. Conversely, disturbances to the GFECRA reduce total domestic debt, albeit at a diminishing pace. Moreover, GFECRA accounts for 56.5% of the fluctuations in domestic debt over a span of 24 months. Fiscal authorities can use a GFECRA amounting to R150 billion throughout the 2024 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) to oversee total domestic debt. Future research should investigate the mechanisms for managing total domestic debt, particularly within South Africa.

AbstractThis study analyzed whether gender is an important factor in explaining the behaviour of taxpayers towards tax compliance. The study extended the theory of planned bahaviour to establish the factors influencing the behaviour of taxpayers towards tax compliance across gender. Primary data was collected from 390 taxpayers using a closed-ended questionnaire set. Descriptive and inferential statistical tools were used to analyze the data. Descriptive data were presented using the mean and standard deviation, while inferential data were analyzed using a multivariate regression analysis and a univariate and independent t-test. Findings from the survey showed that the predictor variables contribute 51% in explaining the taxpayers towards tax compliance of which 84.23% is for male taxpayers while 71.86% is for female taxpayers. The results further revealed that there is a statistical difference in the behaviour of taxpayers towards tax compliance. Female taxpayers are more influenced by tax knowledge, perception of government spending and roles of tax authority while male taxpayers are more influenced by tax penalties, economic factors and tax rates. Gender contributes 55.1% to taxpayers’ beheviour towards tax compliance. The study contributed to the current literature by establishing the predictor variables that influences the behaviour of taxpayers towards tax compliance which can be used as a basis when designing a tax compliance policy and program.

We experimentally test a model of public good bargaining due to Bowen et al. (Am Econ Rev 104:2941–2974, 2014) and compare two institutions governing bargaining over public good allocations. The setup involves two parties negotiating the distribution of a fixed endowment between a public good and each party’s individual account. Parties attach either high or low weight to the public good and the difference in these weights reflects the degree of polarization. Under discretionary bargaining rules, the status quo default allocation to the group account (in the event of disagreement) is zero while under the mandatory bargaining rule it is equal to the level last agreed upon. The mandatory rule thus creates a dynamic relationship between current decisions and future payoffs, and our experiment tests the theoretical prediction that the efficient level of public good is provided under the mandatory rule while the level of public good funding is at a sub-optimal level under the discretionary rule. Consistent with the theory, we find that proposers (particularly those attaching high weight to the public good) propose significantly greater allocations to the public good under mandatory rules than under discretionary rules and this result is strengthened with an increase in polarization. Still, public good allocations under mandatory rules fall short of steady state predictions, primarily due to fairness concerns that prevent proposers from exercising full proposer power.

This paper presents a stock-flow-consistent model in which growth is led by exports, government consumption, and consumption out of interest. It considers domestic and external debt dynamics and gross capital flows. The balance of payments constraint serves as a ceiling but not a floor for growth. Countries may choose to not fully use their external space to decrease public debts or accumulate international reserves. The model is applied to a comparative dynamics exercise to explore how a hike in foreign interest rates may impact growth and income distribution in a developing country under different policy responses. The shock forces the country to apply at least one contractionary macroeconomic policy or lose its reserves. Contractionary monetary policy may be the only tool to avoid external disequilibrium after the shock for countries with open capital accounts. Financial flows may impose trade-offs between short and long run policy objectives. Accumulated international reserves helps maintain expansionary policies and higher average growth rates after external shocks by providing liquidity in foreign currency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 disrupted both social and economic development in several dimensions. Governments of the vast majority of countries implemented strategies to battle the pandemic and its negative consequences. The question is, which countries can be assessed as successful in that matter? In this study, we use empirical tools to investigate which governmental actions and state characteristics appear proper, as reflected by pandemic misery indices. The results of our study imply that fiscal measures taken solely are not enough to confront the negative outcome of the pandemic. Interestingly, a strong rule of law, high government effectiveness, and low corruption seem to help countries get through COVID-19. These conclusions may be useful for policymakers in the context of the current and future negative shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study attempts to investigate the effects of globalisation on components of general government expenditures and domestic private investment in India during 1980–1981 to 2019–2020, by controlling their other crucial determinants. We observe a positive impact of FDI, per capita income and population growth on both government current and capital expenditures, while FRBM dummy has a strong favourable impact only on capital expenditure. This indicates significant influence of demand side factors on both components of government expenditure along with a favourable effect of fiscal discipline measures on capital expenditure. On exploring the effects of government capital spending and FDI on domestic private investment, we observe government capital spending has a negative effect, while FDI, revenue spending and fiscal discipline measures have positive effects. Thus, we conclude that in response to globalisation while general government in India is augmenting with both pro-efficient and welfare spending measures, its overall fiscal policy does not provide a strong stimulus to domestic private investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, government debt has surged to unprecedented levels in most countries, including those of North Africa. In this study, we investigate the issue of public debt sustainability in four North African countries (Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia). The Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) results show that Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia have experienced periods of explosive public debt during the studied period. The identified episodes of explosive debt behavior can be seen as periods of unsustainable fiscal policy. Moreover, the Quantile Auto-Regressive (QAR) unit root results point to strong debt sustainability at the lower quantiles for the selected countries, while at the middle and upper quantiles, public debt exhibits an unsustainable dynamic. This finding, therefore, points to weak sustainability of debt and fiscal policies in Algeria, Morocco, Libya, and Tunisia. This paper provides further evidence that fiscal policies have become more unsustainable than sustainable in recent years in these countries. Consequently, fiscal policymakers in MENA countries should not overlook the unsustainability of public debt and its various effects when developing any strategy aimed at stimulating the economy through ever larger debt levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies social security reforms in a model with declining population growth and increasing life expectancy. Based on simulations using data on China, it is found that a switch from a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system to a notional defined contribution system favors the rich, causes the poor to work more, and may change the capital-effective labor ratio depending on the rate of return to personal accounts. A switch from the PAYG system to a modified PAYG system that saves part of the receipts, with the interest rate greater than the growth rate, increases labor supply and decreases the capital-effective labor ratio in period one; decreases labor supply and increases the capital-effective labor ratio after period one; and hurts the poor old more than the rich old while benefitting the poor in future generations more than the rich. If the interest rate is less than the growth rate, the accumulated funds are insufficient to balance the social security budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]