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8. Party campaign statements and portfolio allocation in coalition governments.

Author

Däubler, Thomas, Debus, Marc, and Ecker, Alejandro

Subjects
POLITICAL campaigns, COALITION governments, EMPLOYMENT portfolios, ELECTIONS
Abstract

Which party controls which cabinet posts is an important determinant of how multi-party governments work. Existing research shows that parties' attention to policy domains in election manifestos is a key predictor of portfolio allocation. However, election manifestos are broad documents and typically published months before an election. This research note argues that policy emphasis in the last few weeks before the election matters for portfolio allocation, because parties can focus their message, react to exogenous events and use campaign communication as a commitment device. A test of this argument makes use of a novel dataset on party representatives' campaign statements. The findings show that the policy focus of campaign statements, especially those stating positions rather than referring to valence, predicts who will control a ministerial portfolio associated with the respective policy domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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10. Who should govern? Perceived legitimacy of governments in multiparty systems

Author

Meyer, Thomas M., Ecker, Alejandro, and Plescia, Carolina

Subjects
Political Science, FOS: Political science, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Abstract

In democracies, it is crucial that losers of the electoral contest accept their defeat and go in opposition. Yet, in multiparty systems, there are different majorities (Müller 2009) and many interpretations of an election result (Plescia 2019). Thus, voters have widely different reflections of the meaning behind an election result and its implications for government majorities. In this paper, we study voters’ perceptions of legitimate coalition alternatives in light of an election result. This question is important as without legitimacy, the peaceful transfer of power is in danger and any particular government will not be able to stay in power for long. Our results are also theoretically important since they shed light on the mass-elite linkage during the government formation process and have wider implications for political representation, parties’ strategies during government formation, and public policy. We argue that voters believe election winners (rather than losers) should be represented in the next government. However, in a multiparty system there are different ways to think about winning and losing an election, and our main goal is to identify the elements of an election result that voters use to identify legitimate coalition alternatives. One yardstick to identify winners and losers is to compare parties’ vote shares. Previous research has shown that voters link the notion of winning to the largest party and to those that gained rather than lost votes since the last election (Stiers et al. 2018). We therefore use these two criteria to test whether governments containing the largest party and/or parties that gained votes are seen as being more legitimate (coalition) governments. Another element of an election result that voters might use to identify legitimate coalition alternatives is whether or not an ideological side has won the election. Following mandate theory (Budge and Hofferbert 1990; Mansbridge 2003), voters elect parties based on policy platforms that are expected to be the cornerstone for the future government’s policy program. In multiparty systems, however, government formation often involves two (or more) parties with conflicting policy platforms, and coalition governments are less likely to find common ground between their policy platforms if they diverge on major policy issues (Müller and Strøm 2003). Voters do not normally expect parties to cross ideological blocks (Falcó Gimeno and Fernandez-Vazquez 2020) and such actions tend to require longer justifications to square with voters’ preferences (Plescia 2022). We therefore expect that governments with coherent policy positions are seen as being more legitimate (coalition) governments as this constitutes a clear(er) mandate and clear(er) expectations for government policy. We test these expectations based on a conjoint survey experiment (N = 1,800) in Germany.

Published
2023
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13. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, primary, Rinke, Eike Mark, additional, Wuttke, Alexander, additional, Nguyen, Hung H. V., additional, Adem, Muna, additional, Adriaans, Jule, additional, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, additional, Andersen, Henrik K., additional, Auer, Daniel, additional, Azevedo, Flavio, additional, Bahnsen, Oke, additional, Balzer, Dave, additional, Bauer, Gerrit, additional, Bauer, Paul C., additional, Baumann, Markus, additional, Baute, Sharon, additional, Benoit, Verena, additional, Bernauer, Julian, additional, Berning, Carl, additional, Berthold, Anna, additional, Bethke, Felix S., additional, Biegert, Thomas, additional, Blinzler, Katharina, additional, Blumenberg, Johannes N., additional, Bobzien, Licia, additional, Bohman, Andrea, additional, Bol, Thijs, additional, Bostic, Amie, additional, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, additional, Burgdorf, Katharina, additional, Burger, Kaspar, additional, Busch, Kathrin B., additional, Carlos-Castillo, Juan, additional, Chan, Nathan, additional, Christmann, Pablo, additional, Connelly, Roxanne, additional, Czymara, Christian S., additional, Damian, Elena, additional, Ecker, Alejandro, additional, Edelmann, Achim, additional, Eger, Maureen A., additional, Ellerbrock, Simon, additional, Forke, Anna, additional, Forster, Andrea, additional, Gaasendam, Chris, additional, Gavras, Konstantin, additional, Gayle, Vernon, additional, Gessler, Theresa, additional, Gnambs, Timo, additional, Godefroidt, Amélie, additional, Grömping, Max, additional, Groß, Martin, additional, Gruber, Stefan, additional, Gummer, Tobias, additional, Hadjar, Andreas, additional, Heisig, Jan Paul, additional, Hellmeier, Sebastian, additional, Heyne, Stefanie, additional, Hirsch, Magdalena, additional, Hjerm, Mikael, additional, Hochman, Oshrat, additional, Hövermann, Andreas, additional, Hunger, Sophia, additional, Hunkler, Christian, additional, Huth, Nora, additional, Ignácz, Zsófia S., additional, Jacobs, Laura, additional, Jacobsen, Jannes, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Jungkunz, Sebastian, additional, Jungmann, Nils, additional, Kauff, Mathias, additional, Kleinert, Manuel, additional, Klinger, Julia, additional, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, additional, Kołczyńska, Marta, additional, Kuk, John, additional, Kunißen, Katharina, additional, Kurti Sinatra, Dafina, additional, Langenkamp, Alexander, additional, Lersch, Philipp M., additional, Löbel, Lea-Maria, additional, Lutscher, Philipp, additional, Mader, Matthias, additional, Madia, Joan E., additional, Malancu, Natalia, additional, Maldonado, Luis, additional, Marahrens, Helge, additional, Martin, Nicole, additional, Martinez, Paul, additional, Mayerl, Jochen, additional, Mayorga, Oscar J., additional, McManus, Patricia, additional, McWagner, Kyle, additional, Meeusen, Cecil, additional, Meierrieks, Daniel, additional, Mellon, Jonathan, additional, Merhout, Friedolin, additional, Merk, Samuel, additional, Meyer, Daniel, additional, Micheli, Leticia, additional, Mijs, Jonathan, additional, Moya, Cristóbal, additional, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, additional, Nüst, Daniel, additional, Nygård, Olav, additional, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, additional, Otte, Gunnar, additional, Pechenkina, Anna O., additional, Prosser, Christopher, additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Ralston, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Miguel R., additional, Roets, Arne, additional, Rogers, Jonathan, additional, Ropers, Guido, additional, Samuel, Robin, additional, Sand, Gregor, additional, Schachter, Ariela, additional, Schaeffer, Merlin, additional, Schieferdecker, David, additional, Schlueter, Elmar, additional, Schmidt, Regine, additional, Schmidt, Katja M., additional, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, additional, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, additional, Schneider, Jürgen, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, additional, Schumann, Sandy, additional, Schunck, Reinhard, additional, Schupp, Jürgen, additional, Seuring, Julian, additional, Silber, Henning, additional, Sleegers, Willem, additional, Sonntag, Nico, additional, Staudt, Alexander, additional, Steiber, Nadia, additional, Steiner, Nils, additional, Sternberg, Sebastian, additional, Stiers, Dieter, additional, Stojmenovska, Dragana, additional, Storz, Nora, additional, Striessnig, Erich, additional, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, additional, Teltemann, Janna, additional, Tibajev, Andrey, additional, Tung, Brian, additional, Vagni, Giacomo, additional, Van Assche, Jasper, additional, van der Linden, Meta, additional, van der Noll, Jolanda, additional, Van Hootegem, Arno, additional, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, additional, Voicu, Bogdan, additional, Wagemans, Fieke, additional, Wehl, Nadja, additional, Werner, Hannah, additional, Wiernik, Brenton M., additional, Winter, Fabian, additional, Wolf, Christof, additional, Yamada, Yuki, additional, Zhang, Nan, additional, Ziller, Conrad, additional, Zins, Stefan, additional, and Żółtak, Tomasz, additional

Published
2022
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14. Voters’ Preferences on Compromise and Logrolling During Government Formation

Author

Ecker, Alejandro, Meyer, Thomas, and Plescia, Carolina

Subjects
Social and Behavioral Sciences
Abstract

In election campaigns, parties fight for voters based on policy proposals, which they aim to implement after the election. Yet, in multi-party systems where no single party wins the majority of seats in the legislature, government policy is eventually the result of (post-election) bargaining processes between potential coalition partners. In this paper, we study which policy concessions voters are willing to accept during coalition talks. We argue that voters prefer logrolling in coalition negotiations to policy compromises. Consequently, they should prefer government deals where their party gets to keep its position on the issue most important to them personally. For political parties, this implies that rather than seeking compromises on individual issues, they should try to find mutually beneficial deals where each party gets to keep its position on the issues most wanted by its respective party supporters. We test these expectations based on a survey experiment (N = 2,000) in the context of the 2021 Dutch general election where we ask voters to evaluate the potential outcome of hypothetical coalition negotiations. Our results shed light on the mass-elite linkage during the government formation process and have wider implications for political representation, parties’ strategies during government formation, and public policy.

Published
2022
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15. Herzstück

Author

Ecker, Alejandro

Abstract

Hart bleiben oder nachgeben? Diese Frage stellt sich Politiker:innen jeder repräsentativen Demokratie beim Aushandeln politischer Inhalte. Zum Herzstück demokratischer Politik wird somit der Kompromiss als Interessenausgleich und Bereitschaft zum gemeinsamen Handeln. Die Suche nach Kompromissen beginnt in den Koalitionsverhandlungen, bei denen sich die Beteiligten, die trotz teilweise gegensätzlicher Positionen gemeinsam regieren wollen, in einem permanenten Spannungsfeld bewegen: Sie müssen politische Paketlösungen erarbeiten und gleichzeitig dafür sorgen, dass die Anliegen und Interessen ihrer Wähler:innen maßgeblich berücksichtigt werden. Doch wie stehen Wähler:innen überhaupt zu politischen Kompromissen?, Ruperto Carola, Nr. 20 (2022): Weich & Hart

Published
2022
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17. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Abstract

This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95 % of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team’s workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers’ results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.

Published
2022

19. Coalition Mood in European Parliamentary Democracies.

Author

Imre, Michael, Ecker, Alejandro, Meyer, Thomas M., and Müller, Wolfgang C.

Subjects
*IDEOLOGICAL conflict, *COALITION governments, *COALITIONS, *PREDICTIVE validity, *TEST validity, *GOVERNMENT policy
Abstract

The success and longevity of coalition governments depends on the ability to keep conflicts between coalition members at bay. The risk of such conflicts is often assessed by drawing on proxy measures, such as the ideological heterogeneity among government parties. This article presents a new approach to measuring the atmosphere between government parties. The 'coalition mood' is a time-varying measure that draws on applause patterns between coalition partners during legislative debates. The article exemplifies the measurement approach based on automated analyses of over 105,000 plenary debates in Germany and Austria. The article then assesses the measure's face, concurrent and predictive validity. It finds the measure well aligned with qualitative evidence, shows that the coalition mood is correlated with poll ratings of the government parties and helps to predict the duration of legislative processes. The conclusion highlights future applications of the coalition mood for research on coalition politics and public policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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20. How Many Replicators Does It Take to Achieve Reliability? Investigating Researcher Variability in a Crowdsourced Replication

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Akdeniz, Esra, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Bai, Ling, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Rooij, Eline De, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eder, Christina, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Freire, Danilo, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Halbherr, Verena, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Höffler, Jan H., Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Israel, Sabine, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kanjana, Jennifer, Kauff, Mathias, Khan, Salman, Khatua, Sayak, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, C. Lee, Robin, Lersch, Philipp M., Liu, David, Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McDonnell, Robert Myles, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Pickup, Mark, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Reichert, Frank, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Suchow, Jordan W., Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Wu, Cary, Yamada, Yuki, Zakula, Björn, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Akdeniz, Esra, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Bai, Ling, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Rooij, Eline De, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eder, Christina, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Freire, Danilo, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Halbherr, Verena, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Höffler, Jan H., Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Israel, Sabine, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kanjana, Jennifer, Kauff, Mathias, Khan, Salman, Khatua, Sayak, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, C. Lee, Robin, Lersch, Philipp M., Liu, David, Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McDonnell, Robert Myles, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Pickup, Mark, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Reichert, Frank, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Suchow, Jordan W., Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Wu, Cary, Yamada, Yuki, Zakula, Björn, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Abstract

The paper reports findings from a crowdsourced replication. Eighty-four replicator teams attempted to verify results reported in an original study by running the same models with the same data. The replication involved an experimental condition. A “transparent” group received the original study and code, and an “opaque” group received the same underlying study but with only a methods section and description of the regression coefficients without size or significance, and no code. The transparent group mostly verified the original study (95.5%), while the opaque group had less success (89.4%). Qualitative investigation of the replicators’ workflows reveals many causes of non-verification. Two categories of these causes are hypothesized, routine and non-routine. After correcting non-routine errors in the research process to ensure that the results reflect a level of quality that should be present in ‘real-world’ research, the rate of verification was 96.1 in the transparent group and 92.4 in the opaque group. Two conclusions follow: (1) Although high, the verification rate suggests that it would take a minimum of three replicators per study to achieve replication reliability of at least 95 confidence assuming ecological validity in this controlled setting, and (2) like any type of scientific research, replication is prone to errors that derive from routine and undeliberate actions in the research process. The latter suggests that idiosyncratic researcher variability might provide a key to understanding part of the “reliability crisis” in social and behavioral science and is a reminder of the importance of transparent and well documented workflows.

Published
2021

21. Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, and Nguyen, Hung H. V.

Abstract

How does noise generated by researcher decisions undermine the credibility of science? We test this by observing all decisions made among 73 research teams as they independently conduct studies on the same hypothesis with identical starting data. We find excessive variation of outcomes. When combined, the 107 observed research decisions taken across teams explained at most 2.6 of the total variance in effect sizes and 10 of the deviance in subjective conclusions. Expertise, prior beliefs and attitudes of the researchers explain even less. Each model deployed to test the hypothesis was unique, which highlights a vast universe of research design variability that is normally hidden from view and suggests humility when presenting and interpreting scientific findings.

Published
2021

22. How Many Replicators Does It Take to Achieve Reliability? Investigating Researcher Variability in a Crowdsourced Replication

Author

Breznau, Nate, primary, Rinke, Eike Mark, additional, Wuttke, Alexander, additional, Nguyen, Hung Hoang Viet, additional, Adem, Muna, additional, Adriaans, Jule, additional, Akdeniz, Esra, additional, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, additional, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, additional, Auer, Daniel, additional, Azevedo, Flavio, additional, Bahnsen, Oke, additional, Bai, Ling, additional, Balzer, Dave, additional, Bauer, Gerrit, additional, Bauer, Paul, additional, Baumann, Markus, additional, Baute, Sharon, additional, Benoit, Verena, additional, Bernauer, Julian, additional, Berning, Carl, additional, Berthold, Anna, additional, Bethke, Felix S., additional, Biegert, Thomas, additional, Blinzler, Katharina, additional, Blumenberg, Johannes, additional, Bobzien, Licia, additional, Bohman, Andrea, additional, Bol, Thijs, additional, Bostic, Amie, additional, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, additional, Burgdorf, Katharina, additional, Burger, Kaspar, additional, Busch, Kathrin, additional, Castillo, Juan Carlos, additional, Chan, Nathan, additional, Christmann, Pablo, additional, Connelly, Roxanne, additional, Czymara, Christian S., additional, Damian, Elena, additional, de Rooij, Eline Adriane, additional, Ecker, Alejandro, additional, Edelmann, Achim, additional, Eder, Christina, additional, Eger, Maureen A., additional, Ellerbrock, Simon, additional, Forke, Anna, additional, Forster, Andrea Gabriele, additional, Freire, Danilo, additional, Gaasendam, Chris, additional, Gavras, Konstantin, additional, Gayle, Vernon, additional, Gessler, Theresa, additional, Gnambs, Timo, additional, Godefroidt, Amélie, additional, Grömping, Max, additional, Groß, Martin, additional, Gruber, Stefan, additional, Gummer, Tobias, additional, Hadjar, Andreas, additional, Halbherr, Verena, additional, Heisig, Jan Paul, additional, Hellmeier, Sebastian, additional, Heyne, Stefanie, additional, Hirsch, Magdalena, additional, Hjerm, Mikael, additional, Hochman, Oshrat, additional, Höffler, Jan H., additional, Hövermann, Andreas, additional, Hunger, Sophia, additional, Hunkler, Christian, additional, Huth, Nora, additional, Ignacz, Zsofia, additional, Israel, Sabine, additional, Jacobs, Laura, additional, Jacobsen, Jannes, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Jungkunz, Sebastian, additional, Jungmann, Nils, additional, Kanjana, Jennifer, additional, Kauff, Mathias, additional, Khan, Salman, additional, Khatua, Sayak, additional, Kleinert, Manuel, additional, Klinger, Julia, additional, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, additional, Kolczynska, Marta, additional, Kuk, John Seungmin, additional, Kunißen, Katharina, additional, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, additional, Greinert, Alexander, additional, Lee, Robin C., additional, Lersch, Philipp M., additional, Liu, David, additional, Löbel, Lea-Maria, additional, Lutscher, Philipp, additional, Mader, Matthias, additional, Madia, Joan Eliel, additional, Malancu, Natalia, additional, Maldonado, Luis, additional, Marahrens, Helge, additional, Martin, Nicole, additional, Martinez, Paul, additional, Mayerl, Jochen, additional, MAYORGA, OSCAR Jose, additional, McDonnell, Robert Myles, additional, McManus, Patricia A., additional, Wagner, Kyle, additional, Meeusen, Cecil, additional, Meierrieks, Daniel, additional, Mellon, Jonathan, additional, Merhout, Friedolin, additional, Merk, Samuel, additional, Meyer, Daniel, additional, Micheli, Leticia, additional, Mijs, Jonathan J.B., additional, Moya, Cristóbal, additional, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, additional, Nüst, Daniel, additional, Nygård, Olav, additional, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, additional, Otte, Gunnar, additional, Pechenkina, Anna, additional, Pickup, Mark, additional, Prosser, Christopher, additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Ralston, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Miguel, additional, Reichert, Frank, additional, Roets, Arne, additional, Rogers, Jonathan, additional, Ropers, Guido, additional, Samuel, Robin, additional, Sand, Gergor, additional, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, additional, Schachter, Ariela, additional, Schaeffer, Merlin, additional, Schieferdecker, David, additional, Schlueter, Elmar, additional, Schmidt, Katja, additional, Schmidt, Regine, additional, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, additional, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, additional, Schneider, Jürgen, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, additional, Schumann, Sandy, additional, Schunck, Reinhard, additional, Schupp, Juergen, additional, Seuring, Julian, additional, Silber, Henning, additional, Sleegers, Willem W. A., additional, Sonntag, Nico, additional, Staudt, Alexander, additional, Steiber, Nadia, additional, Steiner, Nils, additional, Sternberg, Sebastian, additional, Stiers, Dieter, additional, Stojmenovska, Dragana, additional, Storz, Nora, additional, Striessnig, Erich, additional, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, additional, Suchow, Jordan, additional, Teltemann, Janna, additional, Tibajev, Andrey, additional, Tung, Brian B., additional, Vagni, Giacomo, additional, Van Assche, Jasper, additional, van der Linden, Meta, additional, van der Noll, Jolanda, additional, Van Hootegem, Arno, additional, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, additional, Voicu, Bogdan, additional, Wagemans, Fieke, additional, Wehl, Nadja, additional, Werner, Hannah, additional, Wiernik, Brenton M., additional, Winter, Fabian, additional, Wolf, Christof, additional, Wu, Cary, additional, Yamada, Yuki, additional, Zakula, Björn, additional, Zhang, Nan, additional, Ziller, Conrad, additional, Zins, Stefan, additional, and Żółtak, Tomasz, additional

Published
2021
Full Text
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24. Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, primary, Rinke, Eike Mark, additional, Wuttke, Alexander, additional, Adem, Muna, additional, Adriaans, Jule, additional, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, additional, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, additional, Auer, Daniel, additional, Azevedo, Flavio, additional, Bahnsen, Oke, additional, Balzer, Dave, additional, Bauer, Gerrit, additional, Bauer, Paul, additional, Baumann, Markus, additional, Baute, Sharon, additional, Benoit, Verena, additional, Bernauer, Julian, additional, Berning, Carl, additional, Berthold, Anna, additional, Bethke, Felix S., additional, Biegert, Thomas, additional, Blinzler, Katharina, additional, Blumenberg, Johannes, additional, Bobzien, Licia, additional, Bohman, Andrea, additional, Bol, Thijs, additional, Bostic, Amie, additional, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, additional, Burgdorf, Katharina, additional, Burger, Kaspar, additional, Busch, Kathrin, additional, Castillo, Juan Carlos, additional, Chan, Nathan, additional, Christmann, Pablo, additional, Connelly, Roxanne, additional, Czymara, Christian S., additional, Damian, Elena, additional, Ecker, Alejandro, additional, Edelmann, Achim, additional, Eger, Maureen A., additional, Ellerbrock, Simon, additional, Forke, Anna, additional, Forster, Andrea Gabriele, additional, Gaasendam, Chris, additional, Gavras, Konstantin, additional, Gayle, Vernon, additional, Gessler, Theresa, additional, Gnambs, Timo, additional, Godefroidt, Amélie, additional, Grömping, Max, additional, Groß, Martin, additional, Gruber, Stefan, additional, Gummer, Tobias, additional, Hadjar, Andreas, additional, Heisig, Jan Paul, additional, Hellmeier, Sebastian, additional, Heyne, Stefanie, additional, Hirsch, Magdalena, additional, Hjerm, Mikael, additional, Hochman, Oshrat, additional, Hövermann, Andreas, additional, Hunger, Sophia, additional, Hunkler, Christian, additional, Huth-Stöckle, Nora, additional, Ignacz, Zsofia, additional, Jacobs, Laura, additional, Jacobsen, Jannes, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Jungkunz, Sebastian, additional, Jungmann, Nils, additional, Kauff, Mathias, additional, Kleinert, Manuel, additional, Klinger, Julia, additional, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, additional, Kołczyńska, Marta, additional, Kuk, John Seungmin, additional, Kunißen, Katharina, additional, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, additional, Greinert, Alexander, additional, Lersch, Philipp M., additional, Löbel, Lea-Maria, additional, Lutscher, Philipp, additional, Mader, Matthias, additional, Madia, Joan Eliel, additional, Malancu, Natalia, additional, Maldonado, Luis, additional, Marahrens, Helge, additional, Martin, Nicole, additional, Martinez, Paul, additional, Mayerl, Jochen, additional, MAYORGA, OSCAR Jose, additional, McManus, Patricia A., additional, Wagner, Kyle, additional, Meeusen, Cecil, additional, Meierrieks, Daniel, additional, Mellon, Jonathan, additional, Merhout, Friedolin, additional, Merk, Samuel, additional, Meyer, Daniel, additional, Micheli, Leticia, additional, Mijs, Jonathan J.B., additional, Moya, Cristóbal, additional, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, additional, Nüst, Daniel, additional, Nygård, Olav, additional, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, additional, Otte, Gunnar, additional, Pechenkina, Anna, additional, Prosser, Christopher, additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Ralston, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Miguel, additional, Roets, Arne, additional, Rogers, Jonathan, additional, Ropers, Guido, additional, Samuel, Robin, additional, Sand, Gergor, additional, Schachter, Ariela, additional, Schaeffer, Merlin, additional, Schieferdecker, David, additional, Schlueter, Elmar, additional, Schmidt, Katja, additional, Schmidt, Regine, additional, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, additional, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, additional, Schneider, Jürgen, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, additional, Schumann, Sandy, additional, Schunck, Reinhard, additional, Schupp, Juergen, additional, Seuring, Julian, additional, Silber, Henning, additional, Sleegers, Willem W. A., additional, Sonntag, Nico, additional, Staudt, Alexander, additional, Steiber, Nadia, additional, Steiner, Nils, additional, Sternberg, Sebastian, additional, Stiers, Dieter, additional, Stojmenovska, Dragana, additional, Storz, Nora, additional, Striessnig, Erich, additional, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, additional, Teltemann, Janna, additional, Tibajev, Andrey, additional, Tung, Brian B., additional, Vagni, Giacomo, additional, Van Assche, Jasper, additional, van der Linden, Meta, additional, van der Noll, Jolanda, additional, Van Hootegem, Arno, additional, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, additional, Voicu, Bogdan, additional, Wagemans, Fieke, additional, Wehl, Nadja, additional, Werner, Hannah, additional, Wiernik, Brenton M., additional, Winter, Fabian, additional, Wolf, Christof, additional, Yamada, Yuki, additional, Zhang, Nan, additional, Ziller, Conrad, additional, Zins, Stefan, additional, Żółtak, Tomasz, additional, and Nguyen, Hung Hoang Viet, additional

Published
2021
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27. How and why party position estimates from manifestos, expert, and party elite surveys diverge: A comparative analysis of the 'left–right' and the 'European integration' dimensions.

Author

Ecker, Alejandro, Jenny, Marcelo, Müller, Wolfgang C, and Praprotnik, Katrin

Subjects
*POLITICAL manifestoes, *EUROPEAN integration, *DETRIMENTAL reliance, *POLITICAL parties
Abstract

This paper examines the validity of three approaches to estimate party positions on the general left–right and EU dimensions. We newly introduce party elite data from the comprehensive IntUne survey and cross-validate it with existing expert survey and manifesto data. The general left–right estimates generated by elites and experts show a higher congruence than those derived from party manifestos; neither measure clearly materializes as more valid regarding EU positions. We identify which factors explain diverging estimates. For instance, disagreement among experts has greater impact than their mere number. The substantial centrist bias of the manifesto estimates persists even when alternative documents are used to substitute manifestos. Low response rates among elites have no systematic detrimental effect on the validity of party position estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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29. Do party supporters accept policy compromises in coalition governments?

Author

PLESCIA, CAROLINA, ECKER, ALEJANDRO, and MEYER, THOMAS M.

Subjects
*COMPROMISE (Ethics), *COALITION governments, *FANS (Persons), *POLITICAL planning, *CONFIDENCE voting
Abstract

Government formation in multi‐party systems often requires coalition negotiations and finding common ground among coalition partners. Supporters of parties involved in the government formation process face a trade‐off when evaluating such bargaining processes: on the one hand, voters usually prefer seeing their party being in government rather than in opposition; on the other hand, negotiations require coalition compromises that they might dislike. In this paper, we study voters' willingness to accept policy compromises during government formation processes. We argue that voters' acceptance of policy compromises depends on both the strength of their party attachment and the importance they assign to the issue at stake during the coalition negotiations. Not giving in on important issues is key, especially for supporters of challenger parties, who hold strong policy preferences on a selected number of issues. To test these expectations, we collected original survey data immediately after the Spanish general election in November 2019. The results show support for the hypothesized effects, shed light on the pressure potential coalition partners face during government formation and help explain the failures of government formation attempts in increasingly polarized societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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30. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul, Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Berning, Carl, Bernauer, Julian, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bol, Thijs, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian, Damian, Elena, Edelmann, Achim, Ecker, Alejandro, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gaasendam, Chris, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Greinert, Alexander, Groß, Martin, Grömping, Max, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Huth, Nora, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kolczynska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti, Dafina, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan Eliel, Malancu, Natalia Cornelia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, MAYORGA, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gergor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Juergen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Striessnig, Erich, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke Maria Antoinet, Wagner, Kyle, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Zakula, Björn, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Zhang, Nan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Subjects
Sociologie & sciences sociales [H10] [Sciences sociales & comportementales, psychologie], Open Science, Sociology & social sciences [H10] [Social & behavioral sciences, psychology], Data Science, Replication, Crowdsourcing, Immigration, Social Policy
Abstract

In an era of mass migration, social scientists, populist parties and social movements raise concerns over the future of immigration-destination societies. What impacts does this have on policy and social solidarity? Comparative cross-national research, relying mostly on secondary data, has findings in different directions. There is a threat of selective model reporting and lack of replicability. The heterogeneity of countries obscures attempts to clearly define data-generating models. P-hacking and HARKing lurk among standard research practices in this area.This project employs crowdsourcing to address these issues. It draws on replication, deliberation, meta-analysis and harnessing the power of many minds at once. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative carries two main goals, (a) to better investigate the linkage between immigration and social policy preferences across countries, and (b) to develop crowdsourcing as a social science method. The Executive Report provides short reviews of the area of social policy preferences and immigration, and the methods and impetus behind crowdsourcing plus a description of the entire project. Three main areas of findings will appear in three papers, that are registered as PAPs or in process.

Published
2019

32. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report.

Author

Breznau, Nate, primary, Rinke, Eike Mark, additional, Wuttke, Alexander, additional, Adem, Muna, additional, Adriaans, Jule, additional, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, additional, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, additional, Auer, Daniel, additional, Azevedo, Flavio, additional, Bahnsen, Oke, additional, Balzer, Dave, additional, Bauer, Gerrit, additional, Bauer, Paul, additional, Baumann, Markus, additional, Baute, Sharon, additional, Benoit, Verena, additional, Berning, Carl, additional, Bernauer, Julian, additional, Berthold, Anna, additional, Bethke, Felix, additional, Biegert, Thomas, additional, Blinzler, Katharina, additional, Blumenberg, Johannes, additional, Bol, Thijs, additional, Bobzien, Licia, additional, Bohman, Andrea, additional, Bostic, Amie, additional, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, additional, Burgdorf, Katharina, additional, Burger, Kaspar, additional, Busch, Kathrin, additional, Castillo, Juan Carlos, additional, Chan, Nathan, additional, Christmann, Pablo, additional, Connelly, Roxanne, additional, Czymara, Christian S., additional, Damian, Elena, additional, Edelmann, Achim, additional, Ecker, Alejandro, additional, Eger, Maureen A., additional, Ellerbrock, Simon, additional, Forke, Anna, additional, Forster, Andrea Gabriele, additional, Gavras, Konstantin, additional, Gayle, Vernon, additional, Gaasendam, Chris, additional, Gessler, Theresa, additional, Gnambs, Timo, additional, Godefroidt, Amélie, additional, Greinert, Alexander, additional, Groß, Martin, additional, Grömping, Max, additional, Gruber, Stefan, additional, Gummer, Tobias, additional, Hadjar, Andreas, additional, Heisig, Jan Paul, additional, Hellmeier, Sebastian, additional, Heyne, Stefanie, additional, Hirsch, Magdalena, additional, Hjerm, Mikael, additional, Hochman, Oshrat, additional, Höffler, Jan H., additional, Hövermann, Andreas, additional, Huth, Nora, additional, Hunger, Sophia, additional, Hunkler, Christian, additional, Ignacz, Zsofia, additional, Jacobs, Laura, additional, Jacobsen, Jannes, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Jungkunz, Sebastian, additional, Jungmann, Nils, additional, Kauff, Mathias, additional, Kleinert, Manuel, additional, Klinger, Julia, additional, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, additional, Kolczynska, Marta, additional, Kuk, John, additional, Kunißen, Katharina, additional, Kurti, Dafina, additional, Lersch, Philipp M., additional, Löbel, Lea-Maria, additional, Lutscher, Philipp, additional, Mader, Matthias, additional, Madia, Joan Eliel, additional, Malancu, Natalia Cornelia, additional, Maldonado, Luis, additional, Marahrens, Helge, additional, Martin, Nicole, additional, Martinez, Paul, additional, Mayerl, Jochen, additional, MAYORGA, OSCAR Jose, additional, McManus, Patricia A., additional, Meeusen, Cecil, additional, Meierrieks, Daniel, additional, Mellon, Jonathan, additional, Merhout, Friedolin, additional, Merk, Samuel, additional, Meyer, Daniel, additional, Micheli, Leticia, additional, Mijs, Jonathan, additional, Moya, Cristóbal, additional, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, additional, Nüst, Daniel, additional, Nygård, Olav, additional, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, additional, Otte, Gunnar, additional, Pechenkina, Anna, additional, Prosser, Christopher, additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Ralston, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Miguel, additional, Roets, Arne, additional, Rogers, Jonathan, additional, Ropers, Guido, additional, Samuel, Robin, additional, Sand, Gergor, additional, Schachter, Ariela, additional, Schaeffer, Merlin, additional, Schieferdecker, David, additional, Schlueter, Elmar, additional, Schmidt, Katja, additional, Schmidt, Regine, additional, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, additional, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, additional, Schneider, Jürgen, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, additional, Schumann, Sandy, additional, Schunck, Reinhard, additional, Schupp, Juergen, additional, Seuring, Julian, additional, Silber, Henning, additional, Sleegers, Willem W. A., additional, Sonntag, Nico, additional, Staudt, Alexander, additional, Steiber, Nadia, additional, Steiner, Nils, additional, Sternberg, Sebastian, additional, Stiers, Dieter, additional, Striessnig, Erich, additional, Stojmenovska, Dragana, additional, Storz, Nora, additional, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, additional, Teltemann, Janna, additional, Tibajev, Andrey, additional, Tung, Brian B., additional, Vagni, Giacomo, additional, Van Assche, Jasper, additional, van der Linden, Meta, additional, van der Noll, Jolanda, additional, Van Hootegem, Arno, additional, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, additional, Voicu, Bogdan, additional, Wagemans, Fieke Maria Antoinet, additional, Wagner, Kyle, additional, Wehl, Nadja, additional, Werner, Hannah, additional, Wiernik, Brenton M., additional, Winter, Fabian, additional, Wolf, Christof, additional, Yamada, Yuki, additional, Zakula, Björn, additional, Ziller, Conrad, additional, Zins, Stefan, additional, Zhang, Nan, additional, Żółtak, Tomasz, additional, and Nguyen, Hung Hoang Viet, additional

Published
2019
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33. Coalition Bargaining Duration in Multiparty Democracies.

Author

Ecker, Alejandro and Meyer, Thomas M.

Subjects
*COLLECTIVE bargaining, *NEW democracies, *POLITICAL party leadership
Abstract

Why do some government formation periods end after a few days, while others last for several weeks or even months? Despite the rich literature on government formation, surprisingly little is known about the underlying bargaining processes. This article introduces a new dataset on 303 bargaining attempts in nineteen European democracies to analyse the duration of individual bargaining rounds. The study hypothesizes that (1) preference tangentiality, (2) ideological proximity, (3) incumbency and (4) party leadership tenure decrease the duration of coalition bargaining. Employing a copula approach to account for the non-random selection process of the observations, it shows that these actor-specific factors matter in addition to systemic context factors such as post-election bargaining and party system complexity. These findings highlight the need to consider both actor-specific and systemic factors of the bargaining context to explain government formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
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39. Estimating Policy Positions Using Social Network Data: Cross-Validating Position Estimates of Political Parties and Individual Legislators in the Polish Parliament.

Author

Ecker, Alejandro

Subjects
*ONLINE social networks, *PUBLIC opinion, *POLITICAL parties, *LEGISLATORS, *LEGISLATIVE bodies
Abstract

Social network site (SNS) data provide scholars with a plethora of new opportunities for studying public opinion and forecasting electoral outcomes. While these are certainly among the most promising big data applications in political science research, a series of pioneering studies have started to uncover the vast potential of such data to estimate the policy positions of political actors. Adding to this emerging strand in the scholarly literature, the present article explores the validity of (individual) policy positions derived from the social network structure of the microblogging platform Twitter. At the aggregate party level, cross-validation with external data sources suggests that SNS data provide valid policy position estimates. In contrast, the empirical analysis reveals only a moderate connection between individual policy positions retrieved from the social network structure and those retrieved from members of parliament individual voting record. These results thus highlight the potential as well as important limitations of SNS data in indicating the policy positions of political parties and individual legislators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2017
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40. Corruption performance voting and the electoral context.

Author

Ecker, Alejandro, Glinitzer, Konstantin, and Meyer, Thomas M.

Abstract

Fighting corruption is a vital aspect of good governance. When assessing government performance voters should thus withdraw electoral support from government parties that turn a blind eye to or even engage in corrupt practices. Whereas most accounts of performance-based voting focus on economic outcomes, we analyse whether and to what extent voters punish incumbents for high levels of corruption. Using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, we find that while voters perceiving high levels of corruption punish incumbents, corruption performance voting depends on individual-level attributes and the electoral context: it is most likely for non-partisans, for voters who believe that government turnover will bring about change, and in systems where corruption is a salient issue. Yet, corruption performance voting is not moderated by the clarity of political responsibility. Studying these conditions helps us to understand why corruption is more persistent in some contexts than in others. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Published
2016
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41. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul, Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Berning, Carl, Bernauer, Julian, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bol, Thijs, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian, Damian, Elena, Edelmann, Achim, Ecker, Alejandro, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gaasendam, Chris, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Greinert, Alexander, Groß, Martin, Grömping, Max, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Huth, Nora, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kolczynska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti, Dafina, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan Eliel, Malancu, Natalia Cornelia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, Mcmanus, Patricia, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gergor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Juergen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Striessnig, Erich, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper, Linden, Meta, Noll, Jolanda, Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke Maria Antoinet, Wagner, Kyle, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Zakula, Björn, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Zhang, Nan, and Tomasz Żółtak

42. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H.V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti Sinatra, Dafina, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H.V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti Sinatra, Dafina, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Abstract

This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.

43. Do party supporters accept policy compromises in coalition governments?

Author

Plescia, Carolina, Ecker, Alejandro, Meyer, Thomas M., Plescia, Carolina, Ecker, Alejandro, and Meyer, Thomas M.

Abstract

Coalition governments generally involve policy compromises from the parties involved, but how do party supporters react to these agreements? Drawing on a new study covering the Spanish general election in November 2019, Carolina Plescia, Alejandro Ecker and Thomas M. Meyer find that the more attached voters are to parties, the harder it is for them to accept compromises. There is also evidence that voters find it more difficult to give in on important issues.

44. Why voters do not (always) punish government parties for corruption

Author

Ecker, Alejandro, Glinitzer, Konstantin, Meyer, Thomas M., Ecker, Alejandro, Glinitzer, Konstantin, and Meyer, Thomas M.

Abstract

Fighting corruption is a vital aspect of good governance. Yet, it is also a highly persistent phenomenon, indicating that tackling corruption is not always at the top of incumbent’s agenda. One way to solve this problem is to engage in corruption performance voting; that is, to use elections to punish incumbents for high levels of corruption. But do citizens actually engage in this kind of voting behavior? Alejandro Ecker, Konstantin Glinitzer and Thomas M. Meyer show that while some voters do engage in corruption performance voting, the segment of voters that are willing to hold incumbents accountable is limited by their partisan preferences, their expectations about future governments, and by the characteristics of the country they live in.

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