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This letter questions the supremacy of temperature in the development of tourism climate indices, using the Caribbean as an example. A new methodology is proposed to evaluate a regional climate index based on the seasonal correlation with tourist arrivals and to investigate the weight of the different climate variables that make up the index. Results show that the new climate index fits the seasonal behaviour of tourism demand more accurately by reducing the weight of temperature in the makeup of the index and increasing that of precipitation, wind and cloud cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of average annual surface air temperatures for 1976–2021 in the Trans-Baikal Territory makes it possible to distinguish three periods with different warming rates. The most intensive temperature rise was registered in 2011–2021 (1.33°C/10 years). In 1976–1995, the increase was 0.88°C/10 years, while the average annual temperature was not rising during 1996–2010. For the entire analyzed period, the number of days with positive and large positive anomalies of average daily surface air temperature increased significantly, and the one with negative and large negative anomalies decreased. Possible consequences of the changes for the regional economic activity are shown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing studies show that firms with large macroeconomic risk do not earn higher returns, incompatible with the theoretical predictions of standard economic models. Using a broad set of macro‐related factors, we find the January seasonality of the macroeconomic risk–return relation. Firms with high macro risk deliver higher returns than firms with low risk in January, that is, the positive risk–return trade‐off holds. Conversely, the negative risk–return relation is observed in non‐January months. The seasonal variation in the macro risk–return relation cannot be explained by existing January effects, including the tax‐loss selling, window dressing, and pronounced gambling preference around New Year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The present study provides evidence on export advantages of horticultural commodities based on competitiveness, trade balance and seasonality dimensions. Design/methodology/approach: The study delineated horticultural commodities in terms of comparative advantage, examined temporal shifts in export advantages (mapping) and estimated seasonality. Product mapping was carried out using the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) and Trade Balance Index (TBI). Seasonal advantages were examined through a graphical approach along with the objective tests, namely, modified QS-test (QS), Friedman-test (FT) and using a seasonal dummy. Findings: Cucumbers/gherkins, onions, preserved vegetables, fresh grapes, shelled cashew nuts, guavas, mangoes, and spices emerged as the most favorable horticultural products. India has a strong seasonal advantage in dried onions, cucumber/gherkins, shelled cashew nut, dried capsicum, coriander, cumin, and turmeric. The untapped potential in horticulture can be addressed by handling the trade barriers effectively, particularly the sanitary and phytosanitary issues, affecting the exports. Proper policies must be enacted to facilitate the investment in advanced agricultural technologies and logistics to ensure the desired quality and cost effectiveness. Research limitations/implications: Commodity-specific studies on value chain analysis would provide valuable insights into the issues hindering exports and realizing the untapped export potential. Originality/value: There is no holistic and recent study illustrating the horticulture export advantages covering a large number of commodities in the Indian context. The study would be helpful to the stakeholders for drawing useful policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flight calls are short vocalizations frequently associated with migratory behavior that may maintain group structure, signal individual identity, and facilitate intra- and interspecific communication. In this study, Magnolia Warbler (Setophaga magnolia) flight call characteristics varied significantly by season and recording location, but not age or sex, and an individual’s flight calls were significantly more similar to one another than to calls of other individuals. To determine if flight calls encode traits of the signaling individual during migration, we analyzed acoustic characteristics of the calls from the nocturnally migrating Magnolia Warbler. Specifically, we analyzed calls recorded from temporarily captured birds across the northeastern United States, including Appledore Island in Maine, Braddock Bay Bird Observatory in New York, and Powdermill Avian Research Center in Pennsylvania to quantify variation attributable to individual identity, sex, age, seasonality, and recording location. Overall, our findings suggest that Magnolia Warbler flight calls may show meaningful individual variation and exhibit previously undescribed spatiotemporal variation, providing a basis for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern Sea Route (NSR) has attracted much attention from the academia. However, the relevant issues, namely, the seasonal variation of sea ice coverage, the possibility and delay of ice besetting events (IBEs), formulation of ice-breaker escort fee and rescue fee, and the internalization of environmental costs, are considered in past models, but not in a systematic manner. To break through the limitations of previous studies, this paper investigates the economic and environmental feasibility of the NSR for container service, and clarifies the said issues using the latest survey data on a business case. Specifically, a novel evaluation model was developed to estimate the required freight rate (RFR) comprehensively, from the perspective of economic and environmental costs. Based on the modeling results, the optimal scheme was designed for all-season commercial liner transportation via the NSR. Besides, the RFR-based logit competitiveness model was adopted to evaluate how the NSR as an alternative to the Suez Canal Route (SCR) is affected by multiple factors: the delay induced by the IBEs, carbon tax rate, loading factor of eastbound containerships, and fuel price. The research results provide reference for decision-makers to formulate operations plans for ice class, navigation speed, and ship type. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine forward prices in a market where nonstorable inventory exacerbates the influence of seasonal and hourly variation in supply and demand, expected and unexpected, on the level and volatility of spot prices. We find strong evidence, unusual for a commodity, that the difference between contemporaneous forward and spot prices has power to forecast both the spot price change and the risk premium realized at delivery. Our evidence of a time-varying risk premium is consistent with expected hourly and seasonal variation in the needs of producers and retailers of electricity to hedge against extreme spot price decreases and increases, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

75% of the world's poor reside in rural areas where the local economy is tied to agriculture. We interpret new panel data on COVID‐19 from Nepal and Bangladesh in relation to agricultural seasonality. Conditions in April–June 2020 were comparable to a typical lean season even though the pandemic arrived at harvest time. Income losses stem from both depressed local employment as well as lower migration and remittances. We also document indirect adverse health impacts on nutrition and mental health. Findings are specific to the nature of economic activity at harvest, and effective pandemic policy must evolve with the agricultural season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our aim was to investigate the larval development of Argia joergenseni Ris in three streams located at different latitudes and ecoregions (Yungas and Chaco) in Argentina. We measured the head width and the metathoracic wing sheath length, and classified larvae into five size classes. Our results showed different patterns of larval growth between the three study sites. At the Yungas sites (latitude 26° S), larvae exhibited a high proportion of small individuals throughout the year, suggesting a multivoltine life cycle. In contrast, larvae in the Chaco region (latitude 32° S) showed marked seasonality in growth. The findings indicate a negative correlation between voltinism and latitude in A. joergenseni. The species exhibited an almost continuous flight season in the Yungas, while at the southern limit of its distribution (Chaco), the flight season was limited to the warmest months. This study provides important information on the larval ecology of A. joergenseni, contributing to a better understanding of the dynamics of damselfly communities and facilitating the development of effective conservation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change represents a serious challenge for winter tourism. Its economic and managerial impacts will differ between season periods due to the seasonality of snow availability and tourism demand. Therefore, the interaction of these two types of seasonality has to be modelled. With a novel approach including seasonality of demand, timing of marginal snow conditions, individual preferences and skiing frequency, we simulate impacts of altered snow conditions on skiing demand with data from a discrete choice experiment (n = 1312) conducted in Austria. Snow conditions explain 41% of overall importance of ski area attributes. Distinct patterns of seasonal skiing demand exist that differ with respect to individual skiing days and preferences. Identical snow conditions occurring in different season periods cause demand declines that differ by a factor of 20. The presented construction kit allows investigating economic impacts in combination with different climate change scenarios for weather dependent forms of tourism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonality and its impact on staff turnover and conflict within the workplace is one of the most crucial issue that seasonal hotels are called to deal with. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect that workplace conflict and turnovers have on service quality of seasonal hotels in Greece. The outcome of the research indicated that hotel management's policy in resolving conflicts affects mainly job turnover rather than the frequency of conflicts. In fact, it was found that cooperation strategies are likely to reduce employee turnover through the resolution of conflicts, while enforcement/competition or avoidance strategies enhances the possibility of employee turnover. Finally, it was found that service quality was not related to either the intention to leave or the manifestation of conflicts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes the consequences of tourism specialization on efficiency in the hotel sector. The evidence found in other sectors and economies supports the goodness specialization. Nevertheless, tourism-led economies have particular issues that need to be addressed such as seasonality and the lack of significant tradable competitive activities that could trigger spillover effects to services. Spain provides a suitable context for a comparative case study where industrial-led provinces coexist with others that are tourism-led. The article assumes a novel panel data stochastic frontier (SF) model where inefficiency is explained by industrial and service specialization, international competitiveness, tourism specialization, quality of tourism supply, and seasonality. All variables contribute to reducing inefficiency, but service specialization makes the biggest impact. Hence, tourism-led provinces produce the highest efficiency scores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Contemporary Accounting Research is the property of Canadian Academic Accounting Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study utilized the data on abaca fiber production and used Holt-Winters model to forecast the abaca fiber production since the studied variable is characterized by a fairly strong intensity of seasonality. For the construction of forecasts, additive and multiplicative models were used. The most accurate forecasts were selected on the basis of Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and Mean Absolute Scaled Error. It was found that the multiplicative method had a higher accuracy, hence it was utilized to forecast the production for the next three years. According to the findings, the anticipated fiber production for 2021-2023 showed an increase up to the second quarter, but then declining afterwards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hourly data usually exhibit complex seasonal variations characterized by yearly, monthly, weekly or daily seasonal patterns. Each seasonal variation is modelled by using an evolving spline function in such a way that a seasonal effect at a proportion of the seasonal period is defined as a non-fixed parametric formulation of this proportion. Subsequently, the areas under the splines are proposed as a useful tool to measure the changes in the magnitude of seasonal variations over time, and to compare the relevance of seasonal variations with different seasonal periods. Furthermore, two indexes are suggested to compare seasonal variations with the same seasonal period in different time series: a dissimilarity index accounts for the area between the splines corresponding to the seasonal variation for each series, whereas a complementarity index accounts for this area when seasonal effects have opposite signs. The proposal is illustrated by applying it to hourly series of energy demand in Canary Islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present evidence consistent with markets failing to properly price information in seasonal earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year ("positive seasonality quarters") have higher returns when those earnings are usually announced. Analysts have more positive forecast errors in positive seasonality quarters, consistent with the returns being driven by mistaken earnings estimates. We show that investors appear to overweight recent lower earnings following positive seasonality quarters, leading to pessimistic forecasts in the subsequent positive seasonality quarter. The returns are not explained by risk-based explanations, firm-specific information, increased volume, or idiosyncratic volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and subsequent lockdown measures have impacted economies and industries worldwide. The fisheries industry witnessed a sharp decline in demand and a slump in fish prices due to its dependence on the food service industry. It is important to quantitatively assess those fish species affected most and the extent of the pandemic's impact on them, to take specific countermeasures. We propose a time-series analysis as an alternative to the current practice of using ad hoc year-on-year comparisons. Although the pandemic makes it difficult to construct a counterfactual approach due to the lack of an appropriate control group, we use time-series forecasting to simulate normal conditions using pre-pandemic data. In Tokyo, the unit price of fish species that were negatively impacted by the food services industry dropped by 12.65% to 14.64%, and by 26.08% to 28.22% after the declaration of a state of emergency. Seasonality, short weekly cycles, and short-term market trends are factors that affect the price of fish. Species-specific impact estimates related to the COVID-19 pandemic can allow policymakers to implement recovery measures in a more targeted and effective manner. The results of our analysis can increase fishers' and policymakers' awareness of the usefulness of economic analyses and incentivize them to release data to establish a system to accumulate and analyze data strategically for urgent and appropriate interventions in the fisheries industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine whether employment discrimination increased after the 2016 presidential election in the United States. We submitted fictitious applications to publicly advertised positions using resumes that are manipulated on perceived race and ethnicity (Somali American, African American, and white American). Prior to the 2016 election, employers contacted Somali American applicants slightly less than white applicants but more than African American applicants. After the election, the difference between white and Somali American applicants increased by 8 percentage points. The increased discrimination predominantly occurred in occupations involving interaction with customers. We continued data collection from July 2017 to March 2018 to test for seasonality in discrimination; there was no substantial increase in discrimination after the 2017 local election. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The market for tourist services is subject to the most significant impact of seasonality among all sectors of the economy. Due to growing wealth and the increasing amount of free time, the significance of this sector is on the rise. This research aims to outline the degree of seasonality by month in EU member states and identify changes in seasonal tourist concentration and its varying levels from 1990 to 2018. The research uses data on the actual numbers of overnight stays of nationals and non-nationals from the EUROSTAT databases. The measures include absolute and refined indicators of seasonality and the Gini coefficient. The analysis has enabled three groups of countries to be identified according to different concentration levels. The classification of a specific country into a group seems to be helpful in planning for their domestic market. Moreover, a novelty in the study of the tourism services market is the identification of a two-stage 8-year cycle in seasonal tourism concentrations in the European Union. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban forests provide various ecosystem services. Although the function of reducing particulate matter (PM) in the city is known, research into the reduction of PM according to the type and structure of various forests is still needed. It is essential to study the characteristics of PM concentration in urban riparian forests, which are frequently used for outdoor walks in the COVID-19 era. In this study, the diurnal and seasonal changes in PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were analyzed in urban forests with different structures in the riparian forests located in central Seoul. The PM concentration was found to be high regardless of the time of the day in forests with a developed canopy layer. Similar results were found before and after leaf emergence compared with the seasonal PM concentration. The results of this study highlight the need for planned and periodic management of the canopy layer and underground vegetation to prevent the PM trapping effect to ensure the safe use of riparian forests in cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the impact of hosting of IIHF World Championship on the local hotel market using the case of Prague (IIHF World Championship 2015) and Bratislava (IIHF World Championship 2011). Many previous studies were focused on the impact of hosting mega sports and cultural events on destination perception and visit rate during and after the event, perception of hosting these events by residents or the eff ect on the local economy. Using unique daily empirical data collected from 95 Prague hotels and 25 Bratislava hotels, key findings of this study show lack of long-run positive impact but a high short-run (immediate) effect. In the case of Prague, the main increase of market performance can be identified during the final stage of the tournament, mainly in selling room rates; for Bratislava, the significant effect was determined during the whole tournament, and the entire market never reached the same level of performance. The study shows the need to examine these effects further, emphasizing more variables like seasonality and market segmentation, revenue management, and destination management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large part of the operational cost for a wind farm is due to the cost of equipment maintenance, especially for offshore wind farms. How to reduce the maintenance cost, and hence increase profitability, is this article's focus. It presents a binary linear optimization model whose solution may inform the wind turbine owners about which components, and when, should undergo the next preventive maintenance (PM) replacements. The suggested short-term scheduling strategy takes into account eventual failure events of the multi-component system - in that after the failed system is repaired, the previously scheduled PM plan should be updated, assuming that the restored components are as good as new. The optimization algorithm of this paper, NextPM, is tested through numerical case studies applied to a fourcomponent model of a wind turbine. The first study addresses the important case of a single component system, used for parameter calibration purposes. The second study analyses the case of seasonal variations of mobilization costs, as compared to the constant mobilization cost setting. Among other things, this analysis reveals a 35% cost reduction achieved by the NextPM model, as compared to the pure corrective maintenance (CM) strategy. The third case study compares the NextPM model with another optimization model - the preventive maintenance scheduling problem with interval costs (PMSPIC), which was the major source of inspiration for this article. This comparison demonstrates that the NextPM model is accurate and much faster in terms of computational time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonality influences African informal agricultural markets, but existing literature inadequately explores its interactions with market actors' social relations and livelihood outcomes. Thus, agricultural commercialisation policy ineffectively supports such actors to manage seasonality. Across Bamako, Ouagadougou and Tamale, we conducted interviews, focus group discussions, and a survey of farmer and marketer profits across seasons. Hot, dry season lettuce transactions performed by marketers are more likely to make profit. Farmers and marketers rely on household and community relations and reproduce gendered skills to optimise profit and secure future income streams. Policies supporting household reproduction, and infrastructure, may best support their marketing activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the issue of transportation services sourcing using the mix of contract-based and on-demand sourcing. The model considers when the demand is fluctuating following a seasonal pattern. The discrete-event simulation has been used to identify the appropriate mix and the effect of the demand fluctuation measured by three performance indicators: product fill rate, shipment reliability, and truck utilisation. A set of experiments have been conducted to demonstrate the effect of various factors on the performance of transportation sourcing. The experiments show that more on-demand sourcing improves the product fill rate but worsens the shipment reliability and the truck utilisation. The results also show that the performance indicators are worsening as the demand becomes more fluctuated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) holds that stock return behaviour is time varying due to changes in the environmental conditions surrounding the markets. With the advent of the AMH, researchers' attention has gravitated to the examination of time-varying elements of seasonality in stock returns. However, researchers have not been applying rolling ANOVA tests despite the fact that ANOVA tests constitute the earliest methods used to establish whether returns are statistically different across weekdays or months of the year. This study examined time-varying seasonality in the selected African stock markets, by testing significant differences in mean returns across days of the week, months of the years and parts of the months over time. The sample for this study is a random combination of largest and smaller markets (South Africa, Nigeria, Morocco, Mauritius and Tunisia) in the African continent. The above objective was achieved with the aid of rolling ANOVA tests, implemented within a five-year fixed-length rolling window, rolled one year forward over time. The three ANOVA tests implemented in this study, are the Kruskal-Wallis (KW) and F-test for the equality of mean and the Levene test for the equality of variance. The three tests are conducted for robustness purposes; alternatively, the KW is regarded as adequate to achieve the purpose. The study findings indicated that there are windows where weekdays' returns, months of the year returns, and parts of the month returns, are significantly different and there are windows when they are not. Results indicated that there could be time-varying seasonality. In this context, the ANOVA tests performed in this study provided information as to whether cycles of significant differences (inefficiency/anomaly) alternated with those of equality in mean returns (efficiency). This article showed that ANOVA tests could also provide a degree of insight into the possibility of adaptive behavior of stock returns in African stock markets. Investors should be aware of the non-static nature of stock return seasonality to prevent fundamental loss. Future research is recommended on the adaptive behaviour of trading strategy of calendar anomalies in African stock markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The waters of the Celebes Sea are an area that has quite complex dynamics because it is influenced by several factors, either regionally or globally. This influence certainly has an impact on variations in oceanographic conditions in waters such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and sea currents. Currently, there are many observations of oceanographic data, one of which is by using remote sensing methods. The purpose of this study was to determine the seasonal variations in sea surface temperature and sea surface currents in the Celebes Sea using a remote sensing system in a time series for 5 years (2014-2018). The results of this study indicate data on seasonal variation of SST and sea surface currents have an average maximum SST value for 5 years occurring in the eastern season and the second transitional season (May, June, July) with an average value range of 30.6 °C - 31.1 °C and the average maximum sea current velocity for 5 years occurs in the western monsoon with a value range of 0.72 m/s - 0.77 m/s. The high SST value and sea current velocity are caused by the influence of the season which causes variations in the ongoing rainfall, also presumably due to the opposite direction between the monsoon wind and the direction of the main current flowing in the Celebes Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Iheringia. Série Zoologia is the property of Fundacao Zoobotanica do Rio Grande do Sul and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Carqueja (Baccharis crispa Spreng.) has been primarily used as a medicinal plant around the world. Commercially, the essential oil content of carqueja leaves is the most valuable crop productivity variable. We evaluated the effect of irrigation management in different growing seasons on the essential oil content of carqueja leaves using gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry. The experiment was conducted in a greenhouse located in Southern Brazil, where the crop was cultivated for two years in different growing seasons under six irrigation regimes: 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%, 125%, and 150% of the reference crop evapotranspiration (T25, T50, T75, T100, T125, and T150, respectively). A seasonal pattern was observed in the number of metabolites of sesquiterpenes and phenolics in the essential oil extracted from the biomass; this outcome was correlated with irrigation regimes and air temperature. Principal component and hierarchical cluster analyses were used to discriminate the influence of abiotic conditions on secondary metabolite profiles. Spathulenol was the most abundant compound in the essential oils (95.43%) collected during the summer (December-March) season during the third harvest (H3) at T150. The essential oil content was 8.84% ± 0.05% and 10.52% ± 0.10% in summer and winter (June-September), respectively, with T100 at 45 and 46 days after planting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Black carbon (BC) aerosol deposited in and onto Arctic snow increases the snow's absorption of sunlight and accelerates snowmelt. Wet removal of BC from the atmosphere plays a key role in determining its abundance in the Arctic atmosphere and in Arctic snow. However, this process is poorly understood, mainly due to the scarcity of relevant measurements. To study wet deposition of BC, we made measurements of mass concentration of BC in snow and rain (CMBC) and of BC in air (MBC) with high accuracy (16% and 10%, respectively) at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, Alaska, from July 2013 to August 2017 and analyzed them along with routinely measured meteorological parameters from Barrow. Monthly mean MBC near the surface and CMBC were poorly correlated from midwinter to early spring, when CMBC was close to the annual median while MBC was at its annual peak. Seasonal variations in the altitude distribution of MBC may lead to these differences in seasonal variation of MBC near the surface and CMBC. About 50% of the annual wet deposition of BC occurred in the 3 months of summer, associated with high values of total precipitation and BC originating from biomass burning. Size distributions of BC in snow and rain were stable throughout the year, suggesting that the size distribution of BC in the lower troposphere was similarly stable. Calculations by two global models reproduced the observed seasonal variations of CMBC and showed that BC from biomass burning dominated CMBC in summer. Plain Language Summary: Black carbon (BC) aerosol, a component of soot, efficiently absorbs solar radiation and heats the atmosphere. BC deposited in and onto Arctic snow increases the absorption of sunlight, accelerates snowmelt, and reduces the snow albedo. Wet deposition of BC greatly influences the concentrations of BC in the atmosphere and in fallen snow. Because measurements of BC wet deposition are scarce, we measured mass concentrations of BC in snow and rain (CMBC) and of BC in ambient air near the surface (MBC) with high accuracy (16% and 10%, respectively) at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, Alaska, from 2013 to 2017. MBC and CMBC showed different seasonal variations. Differences between BC concentrations near the surface and in the free troposphere may be one cause of this difference. About 50% of the annual wet deposition of BC occurred in the 3 months of summer, associated with high levels of BC emitted from biomass burning and high precipitation amounts. Calculations by two global models reproduced the observed seasonal variations of BC in snow and rain and showed that in summer, this BC was predominantly from biomass burning. Key Points: We studied seasonal variations of black carbon (BC) concentrations in snow and rain in Arctic Alaska using measurements with 16% accuracyAbout 50% of annual wet deposition occurred in summer, indicating the importance of wet deposition of BC emitted from biomass burning (BB)Model calculations, which reproduce the observed BC in hydrometeors within a factor of 2, suggest large contributions of BB during summer [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Far from being a simple annual round determined by the calendar, seasonality in human societies is a complex system of interdependence between humans and non-humans. It requires close attentiveness to the variability of soils, weather, topography, plants, and animals across both time and space. In this article, the author investigates mobile systems of interdependence that take advantage of topographical and seasonal variation. He uses a range of case studies from early modern Scotland and Cyprus, focusing on summer grazing in the uplands and lowland agriculture carried out by mountain communities. After a comparative discussion of seasonality, the article examines the role of topography and movement, and then puts the 'margins at the centre' in order to highlight the central role played by seasonal activity and movement in rural society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gross domestic products (GDP) can be viewed as an internationally accepted measure of economy size and strength. Recent studies have described the relationship between economic growth in terms of GDP and income, decline in mortality and improved health outcomes of some countries. In this paper, stochastic models based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA (p, d, q)) models of various orders are presented, with a view to identifying the optimal model for the GDP of Nigeria. ARIMA (p, d, q) models are formulated for GDP from some economic components and Nigerian overall GDP on a yearly basis. The choice of ARIMA models of orders p and q is intended to retain any persistence in natural process. Observed data are compared with the fitted data using the optimal models. The result shows that the GDP from agriculture, industries, trade and services show statistically significant increasing trends (p value <2.22e-16) over the study period from 1985 to 2015 while the overall GDP decreases in 2016 due to a decrease in the GDP from industry and a slight decrease in GDP from each of construction, trade and services. Also, the Nigeria's GDP data is linear, nonseasonal and has no structural break. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, long memory behavior of the energy consumption by source of the United States has been examined using the fractional integration technique for the three conventional cases of no regressors, an intercept, and an intercept and a linear trend. In addition, this study extends majority of past studies by considering the effects of seasonality and structural breaks. Using monthly data, it is found that across all the sources considered, energy consumption exhibits long memory with the degree of persistence largely ranging between 0 and 1. Also, the estimated results of the models with seasonality effect and structural breaks show that the energy consumption series have significantly strong seasonal pattern and autoregressive components, and the presence of structural breaks significantly alter the degree of persistence of most of the energy sources. The reports of this study have serious policy implications in the aspect of energy consumption mix, energy consumption efficiency and environmental concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the 1970s, Japanese cooks began to appear in the kitchens of nouvelle cuisine chefs in France for further training, with scores more arriving in the next decades. Paul Bocuse, Alain Chapel, Joël Robuchon, and other leading French chefs started visiting Japan to teach, cook, and sample Japanese cuisine, and ten of them eventually opened restaurants there. In the 1980s and 1990s, these chefs' frequent visits to Japan and the steady flow of Japanese stagiaires to French restaurants in Europe and the United States encouraged a series of changes that I am calling the "Japanese turn," which found chefs at fine-dining establishments in Los Angeles, New York City, and later the San Francisco Bay Area using an ever-widening array of Japanese ingredients, employing Japanese culinary techniques, and adding Japanese dishes to their menus. By the second decade of the twenty-first century, the wide acceptance of not only Japanese ingredients and techniques but also concepts like umami (savory tastiness) and shun (seasonality) suggest that Japanese cuisine is now well known to many American chefs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying global trends and variability in sea surface temperature (SST) is of fundamental importance to understanding changes in the Earth's climate. One approach to observing SST is via remote sensing. Here we use a 37-year gap-filled, daily-mean analysis of satellite SSTs to quantify SST trends, variability and persistence between 1981–2018. The global mean warming trend is 0.09 K per decade globally, with 95% of local trends being between −0.1 K and + 0.35 K. Excluding perennial sea-ice regions, the mean warming trend is 0.11 K per decade. After removing the long-term trend we calculate the SST power spectra over different time periods. The maximum variance in the SST power spectra in the equatorial Pacific is 1.9 K2 on 1–5 year timescales, dominated by ENSO processes. In western boundary currents characterised by an intense mesoscale activity, SST power on sub-annual timescales dominates, with a maximum variance of 4.9 K2. Persistence timescales tend to be shorter in the summer hemisphere due to the shallower mixed layer. The median short-term persistence length is 11–14 days, found over 71–79% of the global ocean area, with seasonal variations. The mean global correlation between monthly SST anomalies with a three-month time-lag is 0.35, with statistically significant correlations over 54.0% of the global oceans, and notably in the northern and equatorial Pacific, and the sub-polar gyre south of Greenland. At six months, the mean global SST anomaly correlation falls to 0.18. The satellite data record enables the detailed characterisation of temporal changes in SST over almost four decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]