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Greater participation in global value chains (GVCs) has highlighted the impact of exchange rate shocks on international trade. This paper examines how such participation influences firms' responses to exchange rate movements, focusing on the relationship between firms' pricing and value‐added in exports. This study, using detailed Chinese firm‐level data, demonstrates that firms with a high degree of GVC participation reacted to currency appreciation by lowering their export prices more substantially and reducing their export volumes less. This is mainly attributable to the "cost‐hedging effect" within the marginal cost channel and the "pricing inhibition effect" within the markup channel. By categorizing export firms by trade models and product types, this study further demonstrates that processing trade firms at the low end of the value chain and those with low product differentiation were more inclined to absorb exchange rate shocks. This study adds to the existing theoretical framework and provides strong evidence for China in deepening GVC integration and supporting the development of high‐quality export firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to investigate the effect of some macroeconomic variables on the performance indicators of companies listed on The Tehran Stock Exchange (selected industries) during sanction periods (before and after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). This research is an applied and correlated study using deductive-inductive reasoning. Collected data is analyzed (financial reports). Therefore, this study is ex post facto. The sample of this study was collected over 11 years, spanning from 2010 to 2020, and included 181 firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Multivariate linear regression is conducted to test the hypotheses. The findings indicate that sanctions (both pre-and post-JCPOA) acted as moderators in the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and firms’ added value. Except for the automotive industry, sanctions (pre-and post-JCPOA) moderated the relationship between foreign investment and corporate investment activities in all industries. Sanctions (pre-and post-JCPOA) moderated the relationship between the production price index and corporate profitability in all industries except the automotive industry. Sanctions (pre-and post-JCPOA) moderated the relationship between the import of raw materials for intermediate and capital goods and corporate operational activities. America’s withdrawal from Iran's nuclear deal, JCPOA, in 2018 caused great damage to Iran’s economy. These sanctions are expected to have a more destructive impact on business enterprises in the post-JCPOA era. Testing the hypotheses, the results show that sanctions (pre-and post-JCPOA) moderated the relationship between the exchange rate fluctuations and corporate performance indicators. This research provides valuable insight into the sanction conditions and companies’ reactions. It leads companies towards self-sufficiency and cooperation with knowledge-based firms for development and growth and reduces dependence on foreign resources and goods.

This study aims to investigate the effect of some macroeconomic variables on the performance indicators of companies listed on The Tehran Stock Exchange (selected industries) during sanction periods (before and after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). This research is an applied and correlated study using deductive-inductive reasoning. Collected data is analyzed (financial reports). Therefore, this study is ex post facto. The sample of this study was collected over 11 years, spanning from 2010 to 2020, and included 181 firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Multivariate linear regression is conducted to test the hypotheses. The findings indicate that sanctions (both pre-and post-JCPOA) acted as moderators in the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and firms' added value. Except for the automotive industry, sanctions (pre-and post-JCPOA) moderated the relationship between foreign investment and corporate investment activities in all industries. Sanctions (pre-and post-JCPOA) moderated the relationship between the production price index and corporate profitability in all industries except the automotive industry. Sanctions (pre-and post-JCPOA) moderated the relationship between the import of raw materials for intermediate and capital goods and corporate operational activities. America's withdrawal from Iran's nuclear deal, JCPOA, in 2018 caused great damage to Iran's economy. These sanctions are expected to have a more destructive impact on business enterprises in the post-JCPOA era. Testing the hypotheses, the results show that sanctions (pre-and post-JCPOA) moderated the relationship between the exchange rate fluctuations and corporate performance indicators. This research provides valuable insight into the sanction conditions and companies' reactions. It leads companies towards self-sufficiency and cooperation with knowledge-based firms for development and growth and reduces dependence on foreign resources and goods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The exchange rate, as a fundamental variable, alongside other economic variables, has a significant impact on stock returns. Therefore, this study has investigated the effects of the exchange rate and its fluctuations on the pharmaceutical industry's stock returns through linear and nonlinear models during the years 2005 to 2021. In this research, first, the exchange rate fluctuations were modeled using the GARCH model. Then, the symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of the exchange rate and its fluctuations, along with the macroeconomic control variables including the healthcare consumer price index, oil price, and industry-specific control variables including asset return ratio, asset turnover ratio, and debt ratio as well as the COVID-19 dummy variable, were investigated on the return of the pharmaceutical industry stock using both linear ARDL and nonlinear NARDL models. The study shows that in both the short and long term, the impact of the exchange rate on pharmaceutical industry stock returns is greater than the impact of exchange rate fluctuations. Additionally, negative shocks of the exchange rate and its fluctuations have a negative relationship with the pharmaceutical industry's stock returns, while positive shocks of the exchange rate and its fluctuations have a positive effect on the pharmaceutical industry's stock return. The study's findings suggest that the impact of positive and negative shocks of the exchange rate and its fluctuations have asymmetric effects on the return of pharmaceutical industry stock. Results show that control variables and COVID-19 have significant effects on pharmaceutical industry stock returns in linear and nonlinear models.1.IntroductionPharmaceuticals, as a strategically vital industry, can significantly contribute to a country’s economic growth and the enhancement of public health. However, a major challenge faced by this industry in Iran is its heavy dependence on imported raw materials and essential machinery, with nearly 60% of the required raw materials being sourced through imports. The pharmaceutical sector in Iran is particularly vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations, given its high dependency on foreign currency. Consequently, the exchange rate and its fluctuations emerge as determining factors influencing the profitability and stock returns of companies operating in this sector. Divergent perspectives exist regarding how exchange rate fluctuations impact stock returns, with some studies asserting a positive correlation, others a negative one, and some maintaining a neutral stance. Since there is no consensus on the precise nature of the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stock returns, especially within the pharmaceutical sector, the present research tried to investigate and compare the effects of exchange rate and its fluctuations on stock returns in the pharmaceutical industry.2.Materials and MethodsUsing linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models (i.e., ARDL and NARDL), the study examined both the symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the return of pharmaceutical industry stocks during 2005 to 2021. The research also considered macroeconomic control variables, including healthcare consumer price index, oil price, COVID–19 dummy variable, and the variables specific to the pharmaceutical industry (e.g., asset return ratios, turnover ratios, and debt ratios). First, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model was employed to model exchange rate fluctuations. The long-term linear equation for the return of pharmaceutical industry stocks can be defined as follows:(1) Also, the long-term nonlinear equation is defined as follows:(2) 3.Results and DiscussionThe research findings reveal that, in the short-term period and based on the linear ARDL model, the exchange rate significantly affects the return of the pharmaceutical industry stocks, with exchange rate fluctuations also causing a significant negative impact on stock returns. Moreover, the analysis of the long-term coefficient estimates from the linear ARDL model suggests a positive correlation between the exchange rate and pharmaceutical industry stock returns. Consequently, the results imply that an increase in the exchange rate can boost the competitive power and stock returns of pharmaceutical companies. However, in the long run, exchange rate fluctuations can have a detrimental effect due to heightened uncertainty in the stock market, dissuading investors from engaging in this industry. Additionally, the study indicates that an increase in oil prices results in a decrease in pharmaceutical industry returns, as investors seek profits in alternative markets. Inflation, too, negatively affects pharmaceutical industry stock returns, as heightened inflation fosters uncertainty, reducing investor inclination toward pharmaceutical stocks. Furthermore, the research findings highlight that various factors such as pharmaceutical industry asset returns, asset turnover, debt levels, and the dummy variable of COVID–19 positively impact pharmaceutical industry returns.The results obtained from the nonlinear NARDL model showed that both short-term and long-term negative shocks in the exchange rate and its fluctuations significantly decrease the stock returns of the pharmaceutical industry. In contrast, positive shocks in the exchange rate and its fluctuations positively affect the stock returns of the pharmaceutical industry. Hence, it can be concluded that the exchange rate and its fluctuations have an asymmetrical effect on pharmaceutical industry stock returns in Iran. Unlike the linear ARDL model, the results of the nonlinear NARDL model indicated that inflation and debt levels do not exert significant impact on pharmaceutical industry stock returns in the long run. Additionally, impact of oil prices on pharmaceutical industry returns is significantly negative in the long run, while pharmaceutical asset returns, asset turnover, and the dummy variable of COVID–19 contribute to an increase in pharmaceutical industry returns in Iran.4.ConclusionConcerning the importance of the pharmaceutical industry and the influence of the exchange rate on the stock returns in the Iranian stock market, the present research used ARDL and NARDL models to examine both the linear and nonlinear effects of exchange rate and its fluctuations on pharmaceutical industry stock returns during 2005–2021 in Iran. The research results indicated that, in both the short and long term, the impact of exchange rate is more significant than the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the returns of pharmaceutical industry stocks. According to the findings, negative shocks to the exchange rate and its fluctuations can lead to a decrease in the returns of pharmaceutical industry stocks, while positive shocks result in an increase. The results suggest an asymmetrical impact of positive and negative exchange rate shocks and its fluctuations on pharmaceutical industry stock returns. In both linear and nonlinear models, the control variables of the study, along with the COVID–19 as the dummy variable, have significant impact in on pharmaceutical industry stock returns. In sum, the findings indicated a significant relationship between the exchange rate and its fluctuations and pharmaceutical industry returns in Iran. However, the impact of exchange rate and its fluctuations on pharmaceutical industry proves to be heterogeneous. It is thus recommended that investors take note of the differing results of linear and nonlinear models and the asymmetric effects of variables, utilizing modern financial engineering instruments to implement appropriate risk-hedging strategies against exchange rate fluctuations.

One of the most significant sources of government funding that has an impact on social and economic trends is tax income. One of the most significant elements impacting macroeconomic variables, particularly tax income, are exchange rate swings. In this regard, the current study has looked at the impact of currency rate changes on tax receipts in the Iranian economy from 1979 to 2018. The World Bank, the Iranian Statistics Center, and the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran's economic time series databases were used to extract the necessary data. To do this, the actual exchange rate fluctuation was first calculated using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heterogeneity Variance (GARCH) model, and the required relationships were then estimated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study's findings indicated that increased exchange rate swings when a firm is open and have an impact on tax income and put it at risk, which causes a short-term decline in tax revenue.

This quantitative study examined the Pakistani insurance industry's performance indicator due to fluctuations in exchange rate. Exchange rate volatility was considered a factor as independent variable, whereas profitability was considered a factor as dependent variable. Primary data was collected from 100 respondents of sales department & 4 interviews of sales managers were also conducted. Whereas, secondary data from five insurance firms are chosen to span the years 2012 through 2021: Jubilee Life Insurance, IGI, Adamjee, EFU, and Statelife Insurance. The frequency distribution method using a mean interval scale was used to analyse the data. Findings demonstrated that decrease in exchange rate and other elements due to fluctuations in exchange rates are mainly impacting on the profitability and also exchange rate fluctuations & profitability of studied leading insurance firms of Pakistan are inversely proportional to each other. As a result, elements that could boost profitability should receive more attention if the insurance industry in Pakistan is to enhance both its operational and financial performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying risk spillovers from exchange rates to inbound tourist arrivals by purpose of visit is essential for Australia to take proactive measures to achieve tourism business recovery and resilience after such critical events like the recent bushfires and the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a monthly dataset over the period January 1998–March 2020, this paper calculates the conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) to evaluate how different types of inbound tourists to Australia respond to exchange rate fluctuations. The empirical results identify inbound tourist arrivals with the highest sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations, confirming the role of exchange rates in determining inbound tourist arrivals by purpose of visit. Furthermore, these results shed light on provisions of tourism products, services, and infrastructural facilities to satisfy different requirements of Australia's inbound tourists by purpose of visit, aiming to promote tourism business recovery and resilience in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most significant sources of government funding that has an impact on social and economic trends is tax income. One of the most significant elements impacting macroeconomic variables, particularly tax income, are exchange rate swings. In this regard, the current study has looked at the impact of currency rate changes on tax receipts in the Iranian economy from 1979 to 2018. The World Bank, the Iranian Statistics Center, and the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran's economic time series databases were used to extract the necessary data. To do this, the actual exchange rate fluctuation was first calculated using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heterogeneity Variance (GARCH) model, and the required relationships were then estimated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study's findings indicated that increased exchange rate swings when a firm is open and have an impact on tax income and put it at risk, which causes a short-term decline in tax revenue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The exchange rate market and stock market are two main financial markets and play a key role in international business all over the world. The interconnection between exchange rate and Indian stock indices is considered an important factor as to forecast the growth and development of Indian economy.This paper focuses on the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Indian stock market volatility by assessing the Indian rupee rates in dollar terms (₹/$) on Nifty 50,S&P BSE BANKEX, IT INDEX and S&P BSE SENSEX.The data collected for period of study was yearly data of closing prices of ten years i.e., from the year 2010 to 2021. Several statistical tools were applied to measure the impact and association of exchange rate fluctuation on Indian stock market indices by using Correlation, Regression analysis and ANOVA model. From the analysis and results part, we came to the conclusion that there is a very weak and negligible impact of exchange rate (INR/USD)on Indian stock market indices and both the variables are self-regulating of each-other. The main aim of this study is to guide investors, financial managers and analysts to analyse the market trends, to invest with minimum risk and to compare the returns to specific investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of businesses financinig in the country done by the banking network and banking network play a very important role in achieving macroeconomic goals. Accordingly, in the present study, the effect of fluctuations of asset markets (exchange rate, oil price and stock market index) on financial instability index over a period of 1388-1397 monthly is investigated by using the Markov Switching model. The wavelet transform model is used to extract exchange rate fluctuations, oil prices and stock market index. The results show that the effect of exchange rate fluctuations in different regimes and different time periods is different, so that in the short run the exchange rate fluctuations in the high regime of the financial instability index have a different effect than the other periods. Oil price fluctuations have a positive and significant effect in the medium- and long-term periods and in all regimes, and this effect will be stronger in the long run. Also, fluctuations in the stock market have a negative and significant effect only in the short run and under conditions of low regime of financial instability index. These results show that fluctuations have different effects with respect to time period as well as level of financial instability. Therefore, the management of foreign exchange rate and stock markets should take into the account of financial instability level and the timeframe for fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Introduce the exchange rate fluctuation factors to explore the differences of cross-border M&A behavior. • Compare the performance of exchange rate fluctuations in M&A activities in different industries. • Analyzes how the exchange rate change affects the success rate and the completion time. • Exchange rate changes have indeed accelerated the efficiency of enterprises' overseas mergers and acquisitions. With the changes in the global trade environment, the impact of exchange rate on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) of enterprises cannot be ignored. Taking Chinese listed enterprises as the research sample, we establish a model of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the efficiency of overseas mergers and acquisitions. The findings are as follows: (1) Exchange rate fluctuation significantly affects the completion rate of M&A. (2) Exchange rate fluctuations play an important role in shortening the time of overseas M&A. (3) Exchange rate volatility significantly affects M&A efficiency in high-income countries and highly competitive industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to examine the pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations on the domestic price level in Turkey. To this effect, the interaction between exchange rate fluctuations, producer price index, and the consumer price index was analyzed using the SVAR model. The degree of exchange rate passthrough was examined with the help of cumulative ERPT elasticities based on impulse response functions. Besides, the monetary policy interest rate variable is also included in the model to make inferences about the CBRT's policy stance against the exchange rate and price fluctuations. Study findings reveal that exchange rate pass-through is incomplete in Turkey, however, there is a high degree of pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations to producer prices than there is to consumer prices. Study results also point that the CBRT's policy interest rate is not an important determinant of the exchange rate and price levels. However, Central bank policies with stable and reliable commitments are recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on firm-level Chinese Customs and Industrial Production micro data for 2000–2013, this study investigates the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the quality of products imported by Chinese manufacturing firms. The empirical results show that exchange rate appreciation upgrades the quality of imported products through the price effect, new product variety effect, and competitive effect channels, and by improving the quality of exported products. Our empirical results are robust after considering several potential problems. Furthermore, we find that the quality of products imported by firms with lower productivity, fewer financing constraints, non-core products, low market share, foreign-invested and private enterprises and countries with higher level of economic development upgrade more in respond to exchange rate appreciation. These results imply that exchange rate appreciation is an important way to encourage firms to upgrade the quality of imported products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subject of research. The purpose of the study is the investment attractiveness of Ukraine and ways to improve using the Index of Investment Attractiveness of Ukraine. The purpose of writing this article is to identify ways to improve the investment climate in Ukraine. Methodology of work - methods of statistical analysis and synthesis, method of graphic modeling of investment attractiveness of economic climate in Ukraine. Results - As a result of the study, the following priorities were identified for 2021 to improve the investment climate in Ukraine: a reboot of the judicial system; de-oligarchization of power; development of an effective and independent anti-corruption infrastructure; getting rid of bureaucracy; reduction of administrative and tax pressure on business; appointment of pro-European reformers to public office; restoration and support of cooperation with international financial institutions; law enforcement reform and effective fight against smuggling, including through increased fiscalization; establishing equal rules of the game for business. Scope of results. Economic branch: management of the national economy, macroeconomics, economic theory. Conclusions. The biggest obstacles to the Ukrainian market as a result of the survey identified - exchange rate fluctuations, close ties between the economy and politics, insufficient legal order, corruption of public authorities, labor shortages and access to finance.

Considering the high current account deficits worldwide and the growing importance of tourism to GDP in many countries, the impact of the exchange rate fluctuations on the tourism demand and on the current account of the balance of payments became crucial during the last decades. That is why many researchers focused on studying this impact in the context of different exchange rate regimes. Tourism has a significant positive impact on Spain’s trade balance, because Spain ranks 1st globally if we consider tourist arrivals. FED proceeded to many adjustments of its currency against other currencies to boost tourism industry. Thus, we estimated the impact of the exchange rate on trade balance in tourism with Turkey in the short and long run by using the non-linear ARDL cointegration approach because Turkey is the one of the main trade partner of Spain and this bilateral relation has not been studied so far in the economic literature. Our results show that the Euro depreciation boosts Turkey tourist arrivals, while the Euro appreciation is not significant for Spain’s tourism balance. Based on these results, we designed some policy recommendations.

Copyright of Economic Science / Jingji Kexue is the property of Economic Science Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The primary objective of this research article is to investigate the asymmetrical linkages between gold-oil-exchange rates and Bombay stock indexes by utilizing a nonlinear ARDL approach covering the period from April 2003 to May 2020. Time-series data is divided into three different types of regimes such as before the crisis regime, after the crisis regime, and over the entire period. Seasonality effects within the data series are identified through utilizing different types of unit root analysis such as Philips Peron (PP), augmented dickey-fuller test (ADF), and Kwiatkowski Philips Schmidt Shin (KPSS) test statistics followed by Zivot Andrew (ZA) unit root for identification of structural break unit root test. Nonlinearity within time-series frequencies has been identified through the implementation of BDS test statistics. For longer horizons and before the economic recession period, only gold prices, oil prices, and currency values have an asymmetrical association with Bombay stock indexes as positive shocks to these variables have no impact on stock indexes. However, after the crisis regime and for the longer term, negative shocks to exchange rate fluctuations and oil prices remain statistically insignificant, and only an asymmetrical relationship is established between oil prices and stock indexes. This shows that the regime is more important while classifying the impact of oil prices, gold prices, and appreciation, or depreciation in local currency on Bombay stock indexes. This research article has established an asymmetrical association between stock indexes and gold-oil-exchange rates and concluded asymmetries between them, which are well thought out to be symmetrical by previous researches.

Since perfectly reversible demand functions are generally used in tourism demand modeling, little attention has been given to the asymmetric tourist responses to exchange rate changes. This article attempts to fill this gap by examining two types of the asymmetric demand responses associated with exchange rate fluctuations: 1) currency appreciations and depreciations and 2) rises and falls in exchange rate volatility. Using the linear and nonlinear ARDL models, this study finds evidence of the asymmetrical pattern of long-run adjustment with respect to currency value and exchange rate volatility changes. In the majority of cases, tourists are sensitive to exchange rate changes when the Korean won appreciates, but they are insensitive when the Korean won depreciates, suggesting that foreign visitors in South Korea are loss averse. Furthermore, increases and decreases in exchange rate volatility tend to affect Korea's inbound tourism demand in an asymmetric manner. These findings imply that the assumption of perfectly reversible tourism demand responses to exchange rate changes can be restrictive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Dirassat in Humanities & Social Sciences is the property of Research & Development of Human Recourses Center (REMAH) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Considering the high current account deficits worldwide and the growing importance of tourism to GDP in many countries, the impact of the exchange rate fluctuations on the tourism demand and on the current account of the balance of payments became crucial during the last decades. That is why many researchers focused on studying this impact in the context of different exchange rate regimes. Tourism has a significant positive impact on Spain's trade balance, because Spain ranks 1st globally if we consider tourist arrivals. FED proceeded to many adjustments of its currency against other currencies to boost tourism industry. Thus, we estimated the impact of the exchange rate on trade balance in tourism with Turkey in the short and long run by using the non-linear ARDL cointegration approach because Turkey is the one of the main trade partner of Spain and this bilateral relation has not been studied so far in the economic literature. Our results show that the Euro depreciation boosts Turkey tourist arrivals, while the Euro appreciation is not significant for Spain's tourism balance. Based on these results, we designed some policy recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on some important indicators of the financial performance of banks listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The methodology adopted in this research is descriptive-causal; library tools have been used for data collection and based on data analysis conducted through econometric techniques including ARIMA, ARCH and PANEL-VAR on the banking system sample during 1385-1394 (Persian solar calendar), this paper concludes that consistent with prevailing literature, exchange rate fluctuations have a significant and negative impact on the level of short and long-term deposits, significant and positive impact on non-performing loans; but inconsistent with reviewed literature, have a significant negative impact on net-profit and assets of banks.

Identifying behavior that is relatively invariant under different conditions is a challenging task in far-from-equilibrium complex systems. As an example of how the existence of a semi-invariant signature can be masked by the heterogeneity in the properties of the components comprising such systems, we consider the exchange rate dynamics in the international currency market. We show that the exponents characterizing the heavy tails of fluctuation distributions for different currencies systematically diverge from a putative universal form associated with the median value ( ≃ 2 ) of the exponents. We relate the degree of deviation of a particular currency from such an “inverse square law” to fundamental macroscopic properties of the corresponding economy, viz., measures of per capita production output and diversity of export products. We also show that in contrast to uncorrelated random walks exhibited by the exchange rate dynamics for currencies belonging to developed economies, those of the less developed economies show characteristics of sub-diffusive processes which we relate to the anti-correlated nature of the corresponding fluctuations. Approaches similar to that presented here may help in identifying invariant features obscured by the heterogeneous nature of components in other complex systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the relationship between the exchange rates and stock market performance in Nairobi securities exchange using monthly data for the period between January 2010 and July 2015. Five foreign currencies of the major development partners and players in the region were considered: that is the United States' dollar, the British pound, European euro, Japanese yen and Chinese Yuan. The stock market performance was measured using the major stock market index in NSE; the 20 share index (NSE20). The Johansen's cointegration approach and the VECM framework are employed to estimate the short run and long run equilibrium relationship between stock market performance and exchange rates. Granger causality test performed to determine the direction of causality, and the impulse response analysis to evaluate the impact of shocks on the exchange rates on the stock performance. Emprical results indicate existence of both short run and long run relationships between exchange rates and the stock market index. The study reccommends appropriate monetary policies that would not only facilitate the development of the stock market, but secure the stock market against the external shocks; and efficient hedging instruments for listed firms to ensure the elimination of negative effects of volatility in Kenya shilling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model). Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Omer Halisdemir Universitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi is the property of Omer Halisdemir University, Faculty of Economics & Admistrative Sciene and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper examines the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Sudan using Structure Vector Autoregressive technique, over the period 1979-2010. The analysis has focused on the impact of three macroeconomics shocks on fluctuations of real exchange rate, namely, supply, real demand and nominal shocks. The result shows that the real demand shocks play a significant role in explaining the variations in real exchange rate. This implies that the real demand factors such as, government spending and money supply are the major sources of depreciation of real exchange rate. By contrast, supply shocks and nominal shocks have small impact of real exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managers around the world face increasing challenges of managing the supply chain network risks that span overseas locations. In addition to typical uncertainties such as stochastic demand that any firm faces, a global company must also contend with exchange rate risk. Operational hedging represents one of the techniques to manage this risk. Operational hedging is different from the traditional financial hedging that involves purchasing currency options. Operational hedging establishes excess capacity around the world and then shifts production to favourable countries as exchange rate fluctuations dictate. In this paper, predictive global sensitivity analysis is invoked to seek a set of operational rules that are simple enough for managers to conveniently analyse the effects of economic changes on the production levels of their plants. The rules enable managers to recommend production reallocation levels while remaining accurate enough to make sound decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on corporate credit default in a dollarized economy. The application, before an exogenous exchange rate shock, of a new regulation concerning currency-induced credit risk (CICR) in the Peruvian banking system created natural conditions for a comparison between exposed and unexposed corporate borrowers. We use firm-level data to find that CICR and debt dollarization have opposite effects on credit risk. While CICR increases default, debt dollarization reduces it. Our results suggest that banks transfer exchange risk as a hedging mechanism by lending to such borrowers in dollars only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on disaggregated data comprising 21 exporting sectors (BEC classification) in Turkey. Building on a theoretical model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components, the empirical investigation traces the effects through demand and supply channels. Anticipated exchange rate appreciation, in line with movements in underlying fundamentals, has significant adverse effects, contracting export growth across many sectors. Random fluctuations in the exchange rate, deviations around steady-state equilibrium, have asymmetric effects on sectoral export growth. The evidence indicates increased contraction of export demand to currency appreciation over time. In contrast, the effect of depreciation in stimulating export growth has lost momentum over time. While exchange rate fluctuations had a positive net effect on export growth before 2003, the net effect is negative for the post-2002 period. The implications are anticipated movement in the exchange rate guides export plans, signaling the importance of managing fundamentals to anchor rational forecasts. Moreover, less variability of the exchange rate is likely to improve sectoral export growth in Turkey over time. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Fare classes may contain prices in different currencies for an international airline. This paper questions whether booking controls are sensitive to exchange rate movements. The analysis illustrates that a stronger national currency results in the closing of foreign points of sale earlier because of a direct effect on the value of foreign fares and an indirect effect on bid prices. Bid prices, as an average of national and foreign fares, are decreasing when the home currency strengthens against a foreign currency. The experience of Air Tahiti Nui shows that Revenue Managers carefully monitor exchange rate when fluctuations are bigger than the relative spread between the mean fare of consecutive fare classes.Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management (2009) 8, 313–322. doi:10.1057/rpm.2009.16; published online 15 May 2009 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the 1997 economic crisis in Asia, we observed that several East Asian economies encountered significant external and internal shocks that led to a widespread economic recession. The severe exchange rate depreciation may have harmed the supply side of these economies such that production was contracted. Many argue that the initial tightened domestic policies aimed at countering these shocks and restoring economic growth may have further exacerbated the initial crisis by contracting the domestic sector. This paper analyzes the impact of anticipated and unanticipated changes in the real exchange rate, fiscal spending, the money supply, and energy prices on output and price in Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. The results indicate that anticipated real depreciation during the crisis may have adversely affected the supply side, shrinking output growth while accelerating price inflation. In contrast, the combined effects of supply and demand channels render the outcome of unanticipated currency depreciation inconclusive on output growth and price inflation. Indonesia and Malaysia have experienced a significant reduction in average real output growth beyond the crisis period with a significant increase in domestic price inflation in Indonesia only. In most cases, we credit accommodating policies for countering external shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchange rate fluctuations send the wrong message to economic agents, affect the credibility of the government and result in loss of welfare for the whole society. Therefore, the optimal economic and political scenario revolves around stable equilibrium exchange rates. This paper is concerned with long term trends and builds up on balance of payment explanations of exchange rates fluctuations but adds a political perspective. It contends that effective governments will provide trust in their capacity of managing and implementing the necessary policies to avoid misalignments, especially recurrent devaluations. Using cross-pooled time series analysis for 90 countries during 1960-1985, I find that while the economic explanation is straight forward, politics provides a non-linear interpretation. Higher level of reserves provides governments with flexibility to intervene in the foreign exchange market; high levels of indebtedness are counterproductive to maintain a strong domestic currency but, the current account balance is not a significant predictor. Somewhat counter intuitively, I find that strong governments are at the mercy of economic forces; while weak governments, that could effectively use political tools to avoid devaluations, are prevented from doing so by their very weakness. Thus, political interventions are most effective when applied by weak governments who can seldom muster the capacity to do so, and least effective when applied by capable governments who act in hopes of altering their economic environment. The policy implications are important because political interventions could be very successful when accompanied by marginal increases in the political capacity of weak governments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]