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In order to generate electricity from sunlight, spacecraft that operate within the inner solar system often utilize photovoltaic solar panels that are controlled by power electronics. For this purpose, the emerging technologies of perovskite solar cells (PSCs) have attracted plenty of attention recently. Improving the stability of this kind of cell is the main purpose of this research. In the current work, for the first time, dynamic stability analysis of the PSCs, including the multi-directional functionally graded (MD-FG) layer as the host layer, is presented. Also, due to the complex situation of solar cells, this kind of system may be under mechanical shock loading. Various types of PSCs, including cylindrical, spherical, and hyperbolic paraboloid solar cells, by changing curvature factors are modeled. For considering the size-dependency of the PSCs, modified couple stress theory (MCST) with one length scale factor on the strain energy is presented. The forced vibration caused by mechanical shock loading is illustrated by inverting the Laplace transform using the fully modified representation of Abate and Dubner's solution. A deep neural network (DNN) with independent variables, hidden, input, and output layers, intrinsic neural network parameters, activation function, hidden neurons, and loss function is offered to train the current appropriate structure once the results of mathematical modeling have been obtained. Finally, by applying the two-dimensional differential quadrature method (2D-DQM) as an accurate integral operator, the discretized motion equations can be derived from the weak form of the equations. Finally, in the results section, some suggestion for improving the stability and frequency of the PSCs is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Real-estate prices have soared since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic amid historically low mortgage rates and limited supply. The external shock observed in the real-estate market through relief measures may trigger changes in optimal conservation portfolios. The objective of this research is to identify the impacts of the real-estate market shock triggered by the pandemic through low-interest rates and limited real-estate supply on risk-diversification strategies for land conservation investment and to understand the implications of these impacts. We use a case study involving biodiversity conservation in the central and southern Appalachian region of the US by comparing modern portfolio theory (MPT) outputs using future conservation cost predictions with and without the shock. We find that the financial burden to fund the same level of risk-diversifying conservation benefits increases due to the shock and increases at an increasing rate as the return on investment (ROI) objective rises. This finding is alarming since higher conservation costs triggered by the shock decrease the cost-effectiveness of risk diversification, and this effect exacerbates with the goal of achieving higher ROI. Spatial diversification strategies with and without the shock offer risk-diversification information to help conservation organizations determine effective investment strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores how the international exposure of companies influenced their strategies in responding to the COVID-19 crisis, and the extent to which they were affected. Our conceptual framework formulates two hypotheses that can be empirically tested. First, we posit that international companies, due to their connections with domestic and foreign markets, are more vulnerable to the crisis, being affected through both demand and supply channels. Second, despite their heightened exposure, we anticipate that international companies will exhibit greater resilience during the crisis compared to their domestic counterparts. This resilience can be attributed to their enhanced global connectivity and productivity. The empirical analysis, based on a large firm-level survey undertaken in 2020 in 133 countries, documents how different types of firms were affected by COVID-19 crisis and how they reacted to the disruptions, providing empirical support for both hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we focus on how the issue strategies of political leaders are influenced by an external shock that completely changes the public agenda of the election campaign. The 2022 Hungarian parliamentary election campaign is a unique case to investigate this question, as Russia attacked Ukraine six weeks before the election day (April 3, 2022). The study aims to investigate whether the campaign's issue strategies changed due to this shocking event, and if so, what are the main directions of the changes. The examination relies on a manual content analysis of Hungarian party leaders' Facebook posts during the campaign, covering both the period before and after the outbreak of the war. First, based on the literature, we distinguish between different issue strategies such as issue ownership, issue stealing, "riding the wave," and multi-issue and issue-poor strategies. We categorize political leaders' issue strategies based on their issue focus before and after the external shock. Our results show that while war, economy, and foreign policy play a greater role in the communication of most political actors after February 24, there are remarkable differences between political actors. The communication of opposition party leaders seems to persist with their original issue strategies (issue-poor and multi-issue campaigns), while Viktor Orbán clearly changed his focus immediately after the invasion of Ukraine and ran a "riding the wave" campaign with a focus on war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

External shocks and policy spillovers have facilitated a gradual shift away from the exceptionalism (exclusive role of agricultural interests) in the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This article argues that post-Lisbon decision-making rules and procedures, against some of the expectations, slowed this process. First, the parallel veto-based negotiations on the bloc's finances gave status quo actors the opportunity to influence the CAP indirectly (by blocking the redistribution of CAP funds) and directly (through package deals). Second, the co-decision procedure allowed the ministers of agriculture and the European Parliament's Committee of agriculture to change the proposals of the more reform-minded Commission more easily. The argument is supported by the case of the CAP 2023–2027 reform, which resulted in limited changes given the Brexit-related cut in CAP funding (external shock) and the inclusion of environmental targets as part of the European Green Deal (policy spillover effects). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines how public policy, governance and institutional structures have been established and transformed in response to cyberattacks attributed to Russia that focused political attention in Lithuania. It argues that, despite the growing number of cyberattacks, political and institutional change has initially been slow and it has taken a decade to establish an adequate legal and institutional framework. The reasons for such a slow change are analysed, highlighting limited capacity (lack of understanding of cybersecurity by policy-makers and the lack of attention and other resources allocated to it), institutional fragmentation and coordination problems. It was only after Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014 that cybersecurity policy started to be seen through the prism of national security and parliamentary elections created a window of opportunity for change, which resulted in significant policy transformation in 2017–2018. Interestingly, since then it remained relatively stable, even after Russia's large scale war against Ukraine in 2022, which had only led to operational cybersecurity policy changes in Lithuania. The article contributes to the debates on the role of external shocks on policy change and the mediating factors which can slow down or facilitate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the effect of firm product similarity on stock price comovement. Using the financial data and annual reports of listed firms in the Chinese A-share market from January 2001 to December 2021, we find that firms with greater product similarity experience synchronized movements in their stock prices. This effect is driven by firm fundamentals, as demonstrated through major international events (Global Financial Crisis, European Sovereign Debt Crisis, and Trade Dispute between China and the U.S.) and domestic events (Two Sessions about the Deepening Overall Reform, and Central Economic Conference following the COVID-19 Outbreak). We also show that firms that release earnings announcements earlier contribute to the comovement of stock prices within their product-similarity cluster. Our findings are robust across various tests and provide insights into the dynamics of the Chinese A-share market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we focus on how the issue strategies of political leaders are influenced by an external shock that completely changes the public agenda of the election campaign. The 2022 Hungarian parliamentary election campaign is a unique case to investigate this question, as Russia attacked Ukraine six weeks before the election day (April 3, 2022). The study aims to investigate whether the campaign’s issue strategies changed due to this shocking event, and if so, what are the main directions of the changes. The examination relies on a manual content analysis of Hungarian party leaders’ Facebook posts during the campaign, covering both the period before and after the outbreak of the war. First, based on the literature, we distinguish between different issue strategies such as issue ownership, issue stealing, “riding the wave,” and multi-issue and issue-poor strategies. We categorize political leaders’ issue strategies based on their issue focus before and after the external shock. Our results show that while war, economy, and foreign policy play a greater role in the communication of most political actors after February 24, there are remarkable differences between political actors. The communication of opposition party leaders seems to persist with their original issue strategies (issue-poor and multi-issue campaigns), while Viktor Orbán clearly changed his focus immediately after the invasion of Ukraine and ran a “riding the wave” campaign with a focus on war.

In fields such as aerospace and nuclear materials, there is no large amount of sample data available for reference due to cost and experimental environment; probabilistic theory based on large sample data is not suitable for assessing the reliability of equipment. Due to the lack of a large amount of failure data, the reliability assessment of the equipment has to rely on the empirical data of experts in the field, which have artificial cognitive uncertainty, and uncertainty theory is an effective mathematical tool to analyze the artificial cognitive data. In the uncertain environment, this paper considers the competing failure processes where the failure threshold is an uncertain variable, calculates the reliability of the device under three different shock models, and compares the reliability of the uncertain thresholds with the reliability of the constant thresholds. The results show that in different periods of equipment operation, the reliability of the uncertain thresholds is different with the reliability of the constant thresholds. If the threshold is simply regarded as a known constant, it will cause inaccuracies in the reliability assessment of the system, miss the best maintenance time, and cause unnecessary losses. Taking the microelectronic mechanical system as an example, the superiority of the proposed model is illustrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates two aspects of how an external shock in the guise of the Covid-19 pandemic affects domestic tourism demand: (1) If the impact varies across regions and over time or (2) whether a permanent change (hysteresis) occurs anywhere. By doing so, a presumptive change in domestic tourism demand during three summers is quantified based on timely official data for all Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden) and Estonia, encompassing a total of 76 NUTS3 regions. These regions are divided into five groups from large metropolitan to remote. Tourism demand is approximated by the number of domestic overnight stays in accommodation establishments in the summer months 2016–2022. Dynamic panel data estimations, including household consumption and hotel price index, reveal that all non-metropolitan regions experience a strong increase in domestic tourism flows in the first summer of the pandemic compared with the three years preceding 2020. In contrast, the largest metropolitan areas encounter a substantial decline. The surge in demand for non-metropolitan areas continues in 2021, while the large metropolitan regions return to their pre-pandemic level. After this, demand no longer deviates from its pre-2020 pattern across regions, confirming that the effects are temporary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling the effects and paths of systemic financial risk contagion is significant for financial stability. This paper focuses on China's systemic financial risk from the perspective of dynamic networks. First, we construct a high-dimensional dynamic financial network model to capture risk contagion effects. Second, considering the ripple effect of financial risk contagion, we introduce and improve the basic model of the ripple-spreading network. Finally, small- and medium-sized banks and economic policy uncertainty are selected as the internal and external contagion source, respectively, to simulate the risk of ripple-spreading paths. The results show that financial contagion is more likely to occur within the same industry. The contagion triggered by internal shock first spreads within the same industry, and then to other industries. The contagion triggered by external shock first spreads to banks, then to diversified financial institutions, securities and insurance institutions, successively. Moreover, some small- and medium-sized commercial banks show strong abilities to spread risk ripples. The securities industry is the intermediary layer of the ripple network and plays a leading role in the ripple-spreading process. Therefore, systemic financial risk regulation should focus not only on large financial institutions but also on financial institutions with strong ripple effects. During major risk events, isolating risk intermediary nodes can cut off the paths of risk contagion and mitigate the impact on the whole financial system effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the impact of external shocks on select small open economies (SOEs) using the Bayesian variant of the global vector autoregression model with time varying parameters and stochastic volatility. We account for the curse of dimensionality in the multi-country VAR system by implementing three different priors in the estimation of the parameters of the model: the Minnesota (M-N) prior of Doan–Litterman et al. (1984; Litterman 1986); the Normal-Gamma (N-G) prior of Park and Casella (Bayesian Anal 1:515–533, 2008); and the Stochastic Search Variable Selection (SSVS) prior of George and McCulloch (1995) as extended by Koop and Korobilis (2010, 2013). From our simulation results, we found that global economies of the USA, Western Europe and China are the major drivers of cyclical fluctuation in the SOEs. However, in spite of the perceived superior influence of China on the SOEs GDPs' response to external shocks, we found no evidence to conclude that the influence is significantly greater than those exerted by the United States or Europe on the bloc's economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – This study aims to investigate the influences of global uncertainty indicators volatility on the domestic socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability in a sample of 54 developing countries. Design/methodology/approach – The two-step system generalized method of moments estimator is recruited to deal with autoregression and endogeneity matter in our dynamic panel data. Seven different global uncertainty indicators (US trade uncertainty; world trade uncertainty; economic policy uncertainty; world commodities and oil prices; the geopolitical risk index and the world uncertainty index) have been mobilized and compared for their empirical impact on the economic (growth and GDP), social (the misery index and income inequality) and environmental (CO2 emissions) vulnerabilities of nations. Findings – Our empirical estimations suggest that the socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability cannot be solved through the same pattern: all decrease of a particular aspect will necessarily have a cost and an opposite influence on at least one of the other aspects of the nations' vulnerability. Originality/value – The originality of this article is to combine these three dimensions of vulnerability in the same investigation. To our knowledge, our research is one of the few providing a joint analysis of the influence of global uncertainty on the economic and socioenvironmental countries' vulnerabilities – given the fact social, economic and environmental aspects are at the heart of the UN sustainable goals, our study can be seen as an investigation of the nations' capabilities to work proactively on meaningful sustainable goals in an increasingly uncertain world.

The research aims to prioritize the pandemic's impact on the financial markets of developed and developing economies using a multi-criteria decision-making approach. The results revealed that COVID-19's pandemic effects on financial markets differ between developed and developing nations. COVID-19 pandemic affects developed countries' financial markets more through supply reduction, demand reduction, and economic instability. Regarding developing nations, confidence and expectations, changes in consumption patterns, and the bandwagon effect are the three most significant impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets. The best decisions to lower the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on developed nations' financial markets are the declaration of the stimulus package and support of small-and-medium-sized enterprises. Contrastingly, in developing countries, support for vulnerable households and declaration of the stimulus package are the best decisions to combat COVID-19's negative impact on their financial markets. As practical policy implications for lowering COVID-19's negative impact on financial markets, the promotion of new financing instruments, reconstruction of the relationship between public and private sectors, and support of vulnerable households and enterprises are highly recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: According to the competing failure theorem, the fractional-order Resistor Capacitance (RC) circuit system suffers not only from internal degradation but also from external shocks. However, due to the general differences of each failure type in the data availability and cognitive uncertainty, a better model is needed to describe the degradation process within the system. Also, a new reliability analysis method is needed for the circuit system under internal degradation and external shocks. Objectives: To demonstrate this problem, this paper proposes a novel class of Caputo-type uncertain random fractional-order model that focuses on the reliability analysis of a fractional-order RC circuit system. Methods: First, an uncertain Liu process is used to describe the internal degradation of soft faults and a stochastic process is used to describe the external random shocks of hard faults. Secondly, taking into account the correlation and competition among the fault types, an extreme shock model and a cumulative shock model are constructed, and chance theory is introduced to further explore the fault mechanisms, from which the corresponding reliability indices are derived. Finally, the predictor–corrector method is applied and numerical examples are given. Results: This paper presents a reliability analysis of a fractional-order RC circuit system with internal failure obeying an uncertain process and external failure obeying a stochastic process, and gives the calculation of the reliability indexes for different cases and the corresponding numerical simulations. Conclusion: A new competing failure model for a fractional-order RC circuit system is presented and analyzed for reliability, which is proved to be of practical importance by numerical simulations.

This essay examines the issue of changing business models as a result of the Covid pandemic, with an attention on business models in the tourism sector. A similar change is historically tangible after a massive external shock to the economy. The terms "external shock to the economy" and "pandemic" as an external economic shock have been clarified. The paper examines significant historical cases and periods in which a general and radical change took place, and the renewal of the business environment and business models as a result of external shocks to the economy. The view is presented that the Covid pandemic as an external shock is a catalyst for a change of environment and change of business models, leading to the forefront in the practice of new business models. The hypothesis of possible polar business models is considered, based on a summary of distant historical and recent experience in the specific business ecosystem and the algorithm of change. As a result of the study, it was concluded that the change, including in the business models including those in the tourism sector, will most likely require the implementation of self-created club beta versions and "ambidextrous" business models on the one hand and business models based on state entrepreneurship. Both polar business models are emerging from social trends.

Abstract The complexity and magnitude of threats to black (Diceros bicornis) and white (Ceratotherium simum) rhinoceros conservation in Africa have triggered global concerns and actions. In this study, we analyzed (i) threats to rhinoceros conservation including external shocks, (ii) historical rhinoceros conservation strategies in Zimbabwe and Africa, more broadly, and (iii) opportunities for enhanced rhinoceros conservation in Zimbabwe and Africa. A literature search from 1975 to 2020 was carried out using a predefined search protocol, involving a number of filters based on a set of keywords to balance search sensitivity with specificity. A total of 193 articles, which were most relevant to key themes on rhinoceros conservation, were used in this study. The common threats to rhinoceros conservation identified in this paper include poaching, habitat fragmentation and loss, international trade in illegal rhino products, and external shocks such as global financial recessions and pandemics. Cascading effects emanating from these threats include small and isolated populations, which are prone to genetic, demographic, and environmental uncertainties. Rhinoceros conservation strategies being implemented include education and awareness campaigns, better equipped and more antipoaching efforts, use of innovative systems and technologies, dehorning, and enhancing safety nets, and livelihoods of local communities. Opportunities for rhinoceros conservation vary across the spatial scale, and these include (a) a well‐coordinated stakeholder and community involvement, (b) strategic meta‐population management, (c) enhancing law enforcement initiatives through incorporating real‐time surveillance technologies and intruder detection sensor networks for crime detection, (d) scaling up demand reduction awareness campaigns, and (e) developing more certified wildlife crime and forensic laboratories, and information repository for international corporation.

Purpose: The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) global pandemic forced hospitality and tourism service providers to respond by pivoting business models in line with governmental restrictions to curb the spread of the virus. This paper explores the online responsiveness of tourism-affiliated culinary service providers to a major external disruption. Methods: This study uses ecosystem resilience and Internet marketing theories to analyze 139 web homepages of culinary tourism service providers promoted by the official tourism website of Jamaica, to measure of Jamaica to measure online responsiveness to the COVID-19 pandemic. Results: Findings show that web page responses vary between the official tourism web page and the restaurants promoted on its site. Responses also vary across restaurant affiliation clusters and across location clusters. Further, resilient web page responses are more commonly associated with hotel restaurants and eponymous restaurants. Implications: Culinary service providers promoted by the official tourism marketing arm of a destination should consistently practice resilient online marketing response to external shocks. This study provides a novel analysis of online responsiveness to COVID-19 and contributes a summary framework for resilient response by culinary ecosystem providers preparing for post-pandemic travel.

Prior studies have adduced unstable macroeconomic factors to stock price movement overtime but the relationship between the duo remained unsettled. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was used to reconcile the macroeconomic determinants with performance of stock markets in selected Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) covering the period of 1999:1–2017:4. It was found that macroeconomic indicators were essential in determining stock market performance in Nigeria while South African stock market did not show any predictable linkage but the contemporaneous effect of oil price changes on stock market performance in selected SSA. The study, therefore, recommended that countries in SSA should reduce overdependence on oil to minimize external influence in order to promote stability of the stock markets.

[Display omitted] • We investigate the independent competing failure process of a RC system in an uncertain random environment. • Continuous degradation of the system is subject to an uncertain fractional process. • External shocks obey a random distribution given by real data. • Two shock models that lead to hard failure are considered. • Analytical express the system reliability and perform numerical simulations. According to the competing failure theorem, the fractional-order Resistor Capacitance (RC) circuit system suffers not only from internal degradation but also from external shocks. However, due to the general differences of each failure type in the data availability and cognitive uncertainty, a better model is needed to describe the degradation process within the system. Also, a new reliability analysis method is needed for the circuit system under internal degradation and external shocks. To demonstrate this problem, this paper proposes a novel class of Caputo-type uncertain random fractional-order model that focuses on the reliability analysis of a fractional-order RC circuit system. First, an uncertain Liu process is used to describe the internal degradation of soft faults and a stochastic process is used to describe the external random shocks of hard faults. Secondly, taking into account the correlation and competition among the fault types, an extreme shock model and a cumulative shock model are constructed, and chance theory is introduced to further explore the fault mechanisms, from which the corresponding reliability indices are derived. Finally, the predictor–corrector method is applied and numerical examples are given. This paper presents a reliability analysis of a fractional-order RC circuit system with internal failure obeying an uncertain process and external failure obeying a stochastic process, and gives the calculation of the reliability indexes for different cases and the corresponding numerical simulations. A new competing failure model for a fractional-order RC circuit system is presented and analyzed for reliability, which is proved to be of practical importance by numerical simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An entrepreneurial ecosystem's role in emergent organisations' environments is crucial. This research presents a dynamic view of entrepreneurial ecosystems by exploring an external shock faced by a migrant woman entrepreneur in Kazakhstan. By examining the pre-shock, shock, and post-shock phases, we reveal how the external shock altered the balance of elements in the entrepreneurial ecosystem and how uncertainties related to such an exogeneous shock can be overcome in cooperation with other ecosystem actors. By focusing on a migrant woman entrepreneur, we demonstrate that the opportunity presented by an external shock is exploited through the unique competitive advantage of each ecosystem's actor, manifesting in complementarity among the actors, whereas the aim of attaining the envisioned joint value proposition acts as a cohering tool among the entrepreneurial ecosystem's elements. In addition, complementarity and coherence among an entrepreneurial ecosystem's elements co-create ecosystem resilience and generate additional opportunities that entrepreneurs might exploit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frequent financial crises and economic globalization have made systemic risk a growing Research Topic. This paper constructs a dynamic banking system model based on the bank-asset bilateral network. By collecting the balance sheet and portfolio data of 47 Chinese listed banks in 2018, the paper firstly empirically analyses the impact of external shocks, the price-cutting effect, and the proportion of various assets held by banks to their total assets on the systemic risk of the banking system. The risk preference coefficient and systemic shock are then introduced to construct the banks' quantitative portfolio strategy model to study its optimal investment. It has been found that the greater the external shock and the stronger the price-cutting effect, the higher the systemic risk. Moreover, the external shock and price-cutting effect will have a superimposed effect within a specific range, and systemic risk will increase significantly. The asset classes of the Chinese banking system have a different sensitivity to external shocks, among which loan assets are the most sensitive. Further studies reveal an inflection point of risk preference, resulting in banks' expected return “increasing first and then decreasing.” The higher the debt-asset ratio and the stronger the banks' risk tolerance, the more aggressive investment strategies banks can choose to achieve high returns. This paper provides a reference for the banking industry to react to shocks and analyze systemic risk.

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The complexity and magnitude of threats to black (Diceros bicornis) and white (Ceratotherium simum) rhinoceros conservation in Africa have triggered global concerns and actions. In this study, we analyzed (i) threats to rhinoceros conservation including external shocks, (ii) historical rhinoceros conservation strategies in Zimbabwe and Africa, more broadly, and (iii) opportunities for enhanced rhinoceros conservation in Zimbabwe and Africa. A literature search from 1975 to 2020 was carried out using a predefined search protocol, involving a number of filters based on a set of keywords to balance search sensitivity with specificity. A total of 193 articles, which were most relevant to key themes on rhinoceros conservation, were used in this study. The common threats to rhinoceros conservation identified in this paper include poaching, habitat fragmentation and loss, international trade in illegal rhino products, and external shocks such as global financial recessions and pandemics. Cascading effects emanating from these threats include small and isolated populations, which are prone to genetic, demographic, and environmental uncertainties. Rhinoceros conservation strategies being implemented include education and awareness campaigns, better equipped and more antipoaching efforts, use of innovative systems and technologies, dehorning, and enhancing safety nets, and livelihoods of local communities. Opportunities for rhinoceros conservation vary across the spatial scale, and these include (a) a well‐coordinated stakeholder and community involvement, (b) strategic meta‐population management, (c) enhancing law enforcement initiatives through incorporating real‐time surveillance technologies and intruder detection sensor networks for crime detection, (d) scaling up demand reduction awareness campaigns, and (e) developing more certified wildlife crime and forensic laboratories, and information repository for international corporation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author has conducted a comparative analysis of the contents of the Strategy of Spatial Development of the Russian Federation till 2025 and the theoretical concepts, on which such strategy has to be founded. The main concepts of spatial organization of the economy and society are: the concepts of placement of firms and industries, the models of spatial development and growth, the concept of spatial diversity and inequality, principles and forms of regional state policy, institutional dynamics. The article studies the relations of competitiveness between theoretical concepts and their reflection in the economic policy. The lack of adequate system describing the interaction of concept of spatial development is the main reason of conflicting results of theoretical and practical plans both in scientific study and in practical spatial policy. The conclusion is that there is a necessity of developing a balanced state policy, aimed at synchronization of effects from spatial concentration and distribution of effects of concentrated placements of resources, and also setting priorities and limitations on the development of certain territories

During the entire post-Soviet period of the Russian economy’ transformation, more or less regular crises of the monetary and financial system were observed, reflecting both the cyclical nature of domestic macroeconomic and institutional processes and the degree of their dependence on the volatility of global macroeconomic parameters. The article explores regularities of currency crises and describes general mechanisms of exchange rate stabilization. It is shown that there are important differences in the equilibrium exchange rate shift observed in 2018, which consist of the prevalence of preventive measures of indirect regulation over the impact of external shocks, which was the main cause of all previous monetary and financial crises. There are three possible explanations to why the ruble continues to devalue despite the lack of fundamental factors of weakening (and why the correction does not happen after the first panic wave). The first is the insurance for raw materials exporters against the loss of revenue due to devaluation of importers’ currencies. This concerns the European currency as well, since the EU is in the risk zone and is involved in the trade war with the USA. The second is that Russia and China are the vanguard of ‘anti-dollar putsch’. However, this anti-dollar crusade has no chance of staggering the dollar’s positions as the world currency any time soon. A considerable part of trade and capital operations will be conducted in dollars. The third is that a certain degree of national currency depreciation is a reserve of increase of money supply in Russia

Abstract The trend of low commodity prices looks to continue. Such a trend will affect small open economies that are heavily commodity import dependent, such as the economy of South Korea. Hence, it is of interest to see how the economy would have performed differently with changes in the imported commodity price. In order to systematically investigate this effect, this paper utilizes the Computable General Equilibrium model. In applying the model, maximum entropy estimation approach is used to estimate behavioral parameters for the model. The results of scenario analyses seem to indicate that technology intensity of the industries dictates how differently the given industry will behave with regard to the change in crude oil prices.

• A set of indices are constructed to measure electric vehicle (EV) market resilience. • A conceptual framework is proposed to explore contributors to EV market resilience. • China's provincial EV market resilience and underlying contributors are investigated. • China's EV market resilience presents regional heterogeneity and spatial agglomeration. • Key contributors to China's provincial EV market resilience are identified. This study assesses electric vehicle (EV) market resilience and explores its underlying contributors. We develop a set of indices to measure the resistance, recoverability, and comprehensive resilience of the EV market. A four-dimensional conceptual framework, encompassing market foundation, industrial foundation, policy support and usage environment, is proposed to investigate the potential contributors to the EV market resilience. The models are applied to China's provincial EV markets, and the geographical detector model is used for empirical investigation. We identify an imbalanced distribution of regional EV market resilience, characterized by a spatial clustering of high-performing regions. Notably, a majority of regions encounter challenges in simultaneously achieving high performance in both resistance and recoverability. It is found that contributors across the conceptual framework exhibit varying degrees of influence on resilience, with resistance shaped by inherent factors and recoverability by agency-based factors. However, diverse initiatives may counteract each other, due to interactions among contributors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior studies have adduced unstable macroeconomic factors to stock price movement overtime but the relationship between the duo remained unsettled. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was used to reconcile the macroeconomic determinants with performance of stock markets in selected Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) covering the period of 1999:1-2017:4. It was found that macroeconomic indicators were essential in determining stock market performance in Nigeria while South African stock market did not show any predictable linkage but the contemporaneous effect of oil price changes on stock market performance in selected SSA. The study, therefore, recommended that countries in SSA should reduce overdependence on oil to minimize external influence in order to promote stability of the stock markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the non-substitutability of the product, the monopoly manufacturer designs warranty to reduce maximally warranty cost. Although the monopoly manufacturer maintains responsibly product reliability in warranty, the consumer still confronts a problem about how to sustain product reliability after the designed warranty expires. Goal of this paper is, from the consumer's perspective, to propose a reliability maintenance policy after expiry of the monopoly manufacturer's warranty. First, a renewable repair-limit pro-rata replacement warranty (RRLPRRW) policy is considered from viewpoint of the monopoly manufacturer and used as a quality guarantee of the product with the deterioration affected by internal aging and external shock. Second, depreciation cost is earlier considered in the process of modeling life cycle cost, which differs from the traditional works on the consumer's post-warranty reliability maintenance problem. Third, the consumer's discounted cost rate model considering depreciation cost is derived to achieve optimal maintenance policy. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate our approach. It was found that the proposed maintenance policy is more effective and the depreciation cost considered in life cycle cost has significant effect on extension of the post-warranty period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do parties react to unanticipated events such as external shocks? Do they adapt to the consequences of the external shock or do they disregard them? Using the global financial crisis as an empirical example and testing the expectations for parties' economic policy shifts in 23 European democracies based on Chapel Hill Expert Survey data, the article demonstrates that government parties react more to an external shock than opposition parties, particularly in countries where the external shock has been more severe. This has implications for a broader literature in comparative politics by fostering the dialogue between the political economy literature on external shocks and the literature on party policy shifts by showing the significant impact exogenous events can have on party positioning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]