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Beavers have occurred in North America since at least 7 Ma, but relatively little is known about their distribution across the continent. We modeled distributions of beavers in the late Pliocene (3.3 Ma), Pleistocene (130 ka and 21 ka), and recent Holocene (1970 to 2000) to understand their dispersal across North America, predict future distributions and predict their possible response to future climate and habitat changes. Occurrence data for Castor canadensis were derived from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. Those data were used with both modern (1970 to 2000) and modeled future (EC-Earth-Veg 2081 to 2100) bioclimatic variables from WorldClim as well as past (Pliocene Marine Isotope Stage M2, Pleistocene Last Interglacial, and Pleistocene Last Glacial Maximum) bioclimatic variables from PaleoClim to model beaver distributions through time. Fossil locality points for Castor extracted from the New and Old Worlds Database of Fossil Mammals (NOW), NEOTOMA Paleoecology Database, and Paleobiology Database were overlain on past projection models to use as validation points. Models were run using MaxEnt with post-processing in ArcGIS. Accuracy for the 5 models ranged between 59.6% and 60.2%. Results for the present model (1970 to 2000) showed habitat suitability in areas beavers inhabit today. During the Pliocene MIS M2 cooling event (3.3 Ma) and Pleistocene Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka), habitat suitability shifted further south into Mexico and peninsular Florida and away from more periglacial northern regions. During the Last Interglacial period (130 ka) and modeled future (2081 to 2100) EC-Earth-Veg 2081 to 2100, habitat suitability was higher in coastal and central regions in North America and lower in southern regions compared to their present distribution. Distributions were most affected by precipitation seasonality, isothermality, and mean annual temperature. High variability in seasonal precipitation and temperatures is likely to influence surface water availability, vegetation type, and riparian vegetation composition, which consequently may reduce available food resources and habitat for beavers. Observed shifts during warmer periods may indicate areas in the late Miocene that facilitated dispersal into North America. Future models using other predicted climatic scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways may provide better resolution of potential future shifts in beaver distribution with best- and worst-case climate scenarios, thereby permitting at-risk areas to be prioritized for conservation in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: This study investigates the phylogeography and population genetics of the Qinghai toad-headed agama (Phrynocephalus vlangalii) on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. We analyzed genetic data from 130 new individuals and from 253 individuals from GenBank and identified six distinct clades, including a new genetic lineage and the subspecies P. v. lidskii on the northern slope of the Kunlun–Arjin Mountains. The study found high genetic diversity and significant divergence between the clades, driven by geographical and environmental variables. The ancestry of the species dates back 2.55 million years, influenced by geological movements and glacial cycles. There was no population decline during the Last Glacial Maximum, and ecological niche modeling predicts future habitat expansion. Morphological data also confirmed clade differences, improving our understanding of P. vlangalii diversification and adaptation to geological and climatic changes in the region. The Kunlun, Arjin, and Qilian mountain ranges mark the northern edge of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), where rapid uplift and Quaternary glacial cycles have shaped a unique cold desert ecosystem and species distribution. Despite sampling challenges, phylogeographic studies are crucial for understanding reptile populations such as the Qinghai toad-headed agama (Phrynocephalus vlangalii), a viviparous lizard with limited dispersal and multiple subspecies in the northeastern QTP. Our fieldwork identified populations of P. vlangalii on the northern slope of the Kunlun–Arjin Mountains, similar to the controversial subspecies P. v. lidskii. We analyzed 130 individuals from the northern slope of the Kunlun–Arjin–Qilian Mountains and 253 individuals from GenBank, using three mitochondrial genes and two nuclear genes to assess intraspecific differentiation and demographic history. We found high haplotype diversity and low nucleotide diversity in P. vlangalii, with phylogenetic analyses revealing six distinct clades. Clade VI, confirmed as P. v. lidskii, and Clade IV, a new genetic lineage, were identified alongside three recognized subspecies. Genetic variation was largely attributed to clade splitting, indicating significant divergence. The Mantel test indicated that geographical and environmental factors drove population differentiation. Bayesian molecular clock analysis suggested that the most recent common ancestor of P. vlangalii lived 2.55 million years ago, influenced by the Qinghai–Tibet Movement and glacial cycles. Demographic history and ecological niche modeling (ENM) indicated no population decline during the Last Glacial Maximum, supporting the glacial maximum expansion model, with ENM predicting future habitat expansion for P. vlangalii. In addition, morphological data from 13 meristic and 15 metric characters confirmed clade differences. Our findings significantly advance our understanding of P. vlangalii diversification, population dynamics and response to geological and climatic changes in the QTP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean Basin, a region renowned for its biodiversity, is experiencing unprecedented ecological changes owing to shifting climate patterns. This study employs ecological niche modeling to assess impacts of historical, current, and future climate scenarios on climatic suitability patterns for 36 endemic amphibian species. The study incorporates a diverse set of environmental variables to project species' potential geographic distributions across significant climatic events, including the Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, and Mid-Holocene, as well as future projections for 2050 and 2070 under various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting models underscore the congruence of predicted species-rich areas with established biodiversity hotspots, and highlight the influence of precipitation on amphibian distribution. Notably, the study reveals potential shifts in biodiversity importance of different areas across the Mediterranean landscape, with certain regions projected to transition from hotspots to coldspots and vice versa, in response to future climatic changes. These insights contribute to a broader discourse on conservation priorities, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies that can accommodate the dynamic nature of biodiversity in response to climate change. The findings of this study serve as a call to action for preserving Mediterranean biodiversity, providing a data-driven foundation for informed conservation planning in this critical hotspot. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses a significant threat to ectothermic, dispersal-limited reptiles such as Zamenis snakes in the western Palearctic. This study used ensemble ecological models to assess the potential distribution of six Zamenis species under climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). In addition, we examined niche dynamics through overlap, equivalency, and similarity analyses. Results reveal distinct ecological niches for each species, primarily influenced by temperature and precipitation. Projected distribution shifts vary across species, with some species like Z. persicus and Z. situla showing potential for range expansion, while others such as Z. lineatus and Z. scalaris face significant habitat loss. Z. hohenackeri and Z. longissimus exhibit complex patterns of both expansion and contraction. Niche analyses indicate varying degrees of overlap among species, with a trend toward niche conservatism. This study underscores the importance of niche ecology in understanding climate change impacts and highlights the need for species-specific conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current study aims to analyze the fundamental ecological niches of five páramo species in the high Andean zones of South America. Hereby, the research focuses on the typical flora species of this ecosystem, such as Azorella aretioides, Azorella crenata, Azorella biloba, Azorella corymbosa, and Azorella pedunculata, testing whether their niches are more similar than expected. The study area in the Ecuadorian Andes encompasses altitudinal gradients between 2000 and 5000 m above sea level, where the species were previously registered. For the methodology, we used data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and identified the determining bioclimatic variables for the model as Bio1, Bio2, Bio3, Bio4, Bio12, Bio13, Bio14, Bio18, and Bio19. Moreover, we considered two alternative socioeconomic scenarios of climate change (SSP126 and SSP 245) projected for the period 2021–2040. In the same way, ecological niche models were evaluated and applied in order to identify areas of reduction in geographic space and the ecological space of the five species. Subsequently, the analysis revealed significant sensitivity of these high mountain species to variations in temperature and precipitation, with potential risks to associated species and water resources. In conclusion, changes in the fundamental niche were observed, with all species indicating reductions in distribution for 2040. This occurs particularly under the SSP245 scenario and especially in the equatorial zone, which currently exhibits extraordinary richness concerning the Azorella genus. Therefore, the study highlights evidently the vulnerability of páramo species to climate change, emphasizing the need for conservation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand the distribution of Atlas pistachio (Pistacia atlantica Desf.) in Algeria, we analyzed the environmental factors influencing its habitat. This study employs an ensemble modelling (EM) approach, a robust predictive technique in ecological niche modelling that enables us to identify critical environmental drivers affecting plant distributions across different ecosystems' focal species. The EM incorporated four prediction algorithms (generalized linear model, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy algorithms); we modelled Atlas pistachio's niche with 2810 occurrence points and 32 environmental variables, including climatic, edaphic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors. The model demonstrated high accuracy, with an AUC of 0.97 and TSS of 0.88. Key factors influencing distribution were precipitation in the driest month (Bio14), soil bulk density (BD), cation exchange capacity (CEC), human modification, and average diurnal amplitude (Bio2), with a relative importance of 20.1%, 12.7%, 6.7%, 4.9%, and 3.1%, respectively. These findings underscore the utility of ensemble modelling to pinpoint specific environmental variables critical to the species' presence and ecological adaptability, which has broader implications for other plant species in arid landscapes. Notably, the probability of Atlas pistachio occurrence increased with BD and decreased with CEC and human influence. Our results emphasize the EM approach as a versatile tool in ecological modelling, facilitating species-specific analyses that contribute to broader ecological restoration efforts, especially in degraded arid and semi-arid regions. This study advances our understanding of Atlas pistachio's environmental requirements and highlights the importance of EM in developing targeted programs to restore degraded ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The success of reforestation and restoration projects depends on several factors, with proper seedling management and the selection of an appropriate planting area being crucial. In Peru, the populations of Retrophyllum rospigliosii (Pilg.) C.N.Page (Ulcumano) have been decreasing due to intensive logging of one of the most valuable woods in South America's tropical forests. There are few studies that unify the production of plants through seeds in nurseries and the identification of suitable areas to place the plants produced. Our study has two components. The first aimed to optimize the plant production process through an experiment that evaluated the effects of three doses of controlled-release fertilizer (CRF) (4.2, 8.4, and 12.6 g/L) and two container sizes (115 and 180 cc) on the morphological quality of seedlings in the nursery. The second component involved identifying potential reforestation areas using ecological niche modeling, based on climatic and edaphic variables. The results indicated that the 4.2 g/L CRF treatment for both container sizes had a significant positive effect on seedling growth. The average germination rate was 85% at 120 days. At six months after seedling transplantation, treatments of 4.2 g/L CRF in 115 cc and 180 cc containers were shown to have the best positive effect on morphological variables of seedlings, with a root collar diameter of 3.76 mm and a height of 13.25 cm. Regarding the potential niche models, an area of 6321.97 km2 with ideal conditions for reforestation with R. rospigliosii was estimated, with the departments of Huánuco, Pasco, Junín, and Cusco showing the highest potential. Based on this, it is estimated that over three million plants are needed for large-scale reforestation projects. Integrating silvicultural studies with niche models is a valuable tool for supporting reforestation and ecosystem restoration projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the temporal and spatial factors driving the domestication of Capsicum annuum var. annuum L. in Mexico. This species exhibits the greatest morphological diversity in fruit among Capsicum species--a characteristic that is even more pronounced in contemporary landraces cultivated by indigenous communities. Despite the chili pepper's integral role in regional culinary traditions, its domestication history in this region remains poorly understood, often subject to scholarly interpretations that marginalize or oversimplify archaeological evidence. To address this gap, our interdisciplinary team of archaeologists, botanists, and ecologists combine modern and archaeological Capsicum seed data, diachronic archaeological site locations, and ecological niche modeling to identify potential regions where early human populations and the closest wild ancestors may have coexisted. Our results show spatial correlations between early Capsicum distribution and archaeological site prevalence, suggesting that the beginning of the domestication process occurred in ecologically suitable areas for both wild Capsicum and human settlement. These findings challenge previous hypotheses regarding highland/dry cave domestication regions, as our data indicate that lowland regions--specifically the Yucatán Peninsula and southern coastal Guerrero--were more conducive to early encounters between wild Capsicum and humans. We propose a geographically diffuse and protracted model of chili pepper domestication--driven by a ruderal pathway--which involved at least two asynchronous events across Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By 1985, approximately 400,000 ha of the keystone species Shinnery oak's (Quercus havardii) historic distribution had been eliminated for agricultural purposes across the southwestern United States. These trends indicate a need for targeted conservation and restoration efforts, especially considering the increased attention received for its role in providing habitat for endangered fauna. Setting spatially explicit conservation targets can be challenging for species with limited distributions, as the change in climate conditions over time may disconnect the relationship between environmental suitability and static, topo‐edaphic factors. Our objective was to identify areas for Shinnery oak restoration and conservation and explore the role climate plays in determining these areas while considering topo‐edaphic relationships. We constructed ecological niche models to estimate Shinnery oak's distribution under current climate conditions and temporally transferred our model using an ensemble‐mean of general circulation models to identify areas predicted to retain environmental suitability for Shinnery oak through 2100. The current distribution model was best informed by one climate and two topo‐edaphic variables. We created a second distribution model excluding topo‐edaphic variables to estimate future plant–climate relationships. Incorporating insights from models informed by both static (e.g. soil) and dynamic (e.g. climate) variables, we identified areas for conservation characterized by persistent climate suitability and high soil type suitability. Lastly, we incorporated data on land use and ownership to explore socio‐ecological influences on management decisions. By identifying areas of agreement between our modeled distributions and considering social context, we prioritized conservation areas where environmental suitability persists under changing conditions to facilitate restoration success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a valuable tool for inferring suitable environmental conditions and estimating species' geographic distributions. ENM is widely used to assess the potential effects of climate change on species distributions; however, the choice of modeling algorithm introduces substantial uncertainty, especially since future projections cannot be properly validated. In this study, we evaluated the performance of seven popular modeling algorithms—Bioclim, generalized additive models (GAM), generalized linear models (GLM), boosted regression trees (BRT), Maxent, random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM)—in transferring ENM across time, using Mexican endemic rodents as a model system. We used a retrospective approach, transferring models from the near past (1950–1979) to more recent conditions (1980–2009) and vice versa, to evaluate their performance in both forecasting and hindcasting. Consistent with previous studies, our results highlight that input data quality and algorithm choice significantly impact model accuracy, but most importantly, we found that algorithm performance varied between forecasting and hindcasting. While no single algorithm outperformed the others in both temporal directions, RF generally showed better performance for forecasting, while Maxent performed better in hindcasting, though it was more sensitive to small sample sizes. Bioclim consistently showed the lowest performance. These findings underscore that not all species or algorithms are suited for temporal projections. Therefore, we strongly recommend conducting a thorough evaluation of the data quality—in terms of quantity and potential biases—of the species of interest. Based on this assessment, appropriate algorithm(s) should be carefully selected and rigorously tested before proceeding with temporal transfers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how climate change influences the geographical distribution of species within an ecological niche is essential for predicting habitat shifts and informing conservation efforts. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on habitat suitability and ecological connectivity of wych elm (Ulmus glabra Huds.) in Türkiye. The study explores the future distribution of U. glabra and how its connectivity is affected by habitat fragmentation arising from changing climatic conditions. Contextually, this paper aims to achieve two primary objectives: estimating the potential geographical ranges of U. glabra under different climate scenarios and assessing alterations in ecological connections between current and future habitats. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used along with Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA), and the Probability of Connectivity (PC) index was applied to show possible transformations in distribution patterns of U. glabra over time. The findings suggest that there will be a reduction in the suitability of locations for the species. Moreover, it is expected that under future climate scenarios, ecological connectivity will decline, especially from 2061 to 2100 in the SSP585 scenario. Notably, significant alterations are anticipated during the latter half of the twenty-first century, mainly outside the coastal areas of the Black Sea, where extensive regions would become unsuitable. Additionally, the species is projected to shift its range, decreasing its presence in inland regions while expanding along the coasts. The results show the vulnerability of this species against climate change, thereby demanding adaptive conservation measures to preserve it within the forest ecosystems of Türkiye. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rice is a critical staple crop that feeds more than half of the world's population. Still, its production confronts various biotic risks, notably the severe bacterial blight disease produced by Xanthomonas oryzae. Understanding the possible effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of this virus is critical to ensuring food security. This work used ecological niche modeling and the Maxent algorithm to create future risk maps for the range of X. oryzae under several climate change scenarios between 2050 and 2070. The model was trained using 93 occurrence records of X. oryzae and five critical bioclimatic variables. It has an excellent predictive performance, with an AUC of 0.889. The results show that X. oryzae's potential geographic range and habitat suitability are expected to increase significantly under low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. Key climatic drivers allowing this development include increased yearly precipitation, precipitation during the wettest quarter, and the wettest quarter's mean temperature. These findings are consistent with broader research revealing that climate change is allowing many plant diseases and other dangerous microbes to spread across the globe. Integrating these spatial predictions with data on host susceptibility, agricultural practices, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities can help to improve targeted surveillance, preventative, and management methods for reducing the growing threat of bacterial blight to rice production. Proactive, multidisciplinary efforts to manage the changing disease dynamics caused by climate change will be critical to assuring global food security in the future decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Asexual eukaryotes tend to occupy broader geographical ranges than their sexually reproducing relatives, with this phenomenon seemingly linked to ecological differentiation among closely related asexual and sexual lineages. Here, we used sympatric asexual and sexual Corbicula lineages to assess their ecological niche divergence and genetic differentiation within East and Southeast Asia. The predicted suitable area for asexual lineages was concentrated to Southern China, South Korea, Japan and a small region in Thailand and Vietnam, while that for sexual lineages mainly covered the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines as well as Indonesia. Potential sympatric distribution of both lineages was found in the Yangtze River Basin in China, the Central and Southern Japan. Anthropogenic activity was an important variable for the distribution of asexual lineages, while precipitation variables underpinned that of sexual lineages. Although both lineages had distinct distribution patterns, the identity and similarity tests overall indicated that the asexual and sexual lineages had similar niche. Genetic analyses suggested that 348 COI sequences from 47 populations were separated into two major clusters; one consisted of sexual lineages, and the other comprised asexual lineages across all studied regions and minor sexual lineages from China. The present study suggests that sexual and asexual Corbicula lineages have similar ecological niches accompanying COI genetic differentiations in East and Southeast Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Centers for Disease Control estimates antibiotic-associated pathogens result in 2.8 million infections and 38 000 deaths annually in the United States. This study applies species distribution modeling to elucidate the impact of environmental determinants of human infectious disease in an era of rapid global change. We modeled methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Clostridioides difficile using 31 publicly accessible bioclimatic, health care, and sociodemographic variables. Ensemble models were created from 8 unique statistical and machine learning algorithms. Using International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition codes, we identified 305 528 diagnoses of methicillin-resistant S. aureus and 203 001 diagnoses of C. difficile presence. Three environmental factors—average maximum temperature, specific humidity, and agricultural land density—emerged as major predictors of increased methicillin-resistant S. aureus and C. difficile presence; variables representing health care availability were less important. Species distribution modeling may be a powerful tool for identifying areas at increased risk for disease presence and have important implications for disease surveillance systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characterizing the genetic diversity of a species is crucial for understanding the factors that influence its local dispersion and population dynamics. Additionally, it provides insights into local processes that may affect the distribution of other species. Lineus sanguineus (Rathke, 1799) is a widely distributed species commonly found on fouling fauna along rocky shores. This species can reproduce asexually by fissiparity, and its pilidium larva facilitates dispersal, similar to other heteronemerteans. The present study utilized a population genetics approach combined with Ecological Niche Modeling analysis to evaluate L. sanguineus populations along the Brazilian coast. We used sequences from two mtDNA regions, 16S ribosomal RNA (16SrRNA) and cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI), and one nuclear region, Internal Transcribed Spacer 1 (ITS-1), from 85 specimens sampled in nine locations. Genetic diversity analysis revealed greater genetic variation for the ITS-1 marker compared to mtDNA, as evidenced by higher intrapopulation diversity values. There was no clear geographic pattern, and the AMOVA analysis revealed low to moderate genetic structuring and high connectivity among sampled localities, with most of the genetic variation contained within populations. The pairwise FST results indicate high genetic structuring between the Northeast and localities along the South and Southeast of Atlantic coastlines. This pattern suggests that Brazilian oceanic currents play an important role in species connectivity. The paleodistribution pattern demonstrated that the colonization could have occured from the South to the Northeast of the continent. These results reinforce that sexual reproduction and larval dispersion play a vital role in the connectivity of these Southwest Atlantic populations and that oceanographic currents, rafting and artificial transport facilitate these processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological invasions are significant threats to biodiversity and are often exacerbated by human activities. This study consolidates occurrence data of Eriotremex formosanus (Matsumura) (Hymenoptera: Siricidae), models its ecological niche, and analyzes spatial congruence with global Pinus L. occurrences to identify at-risk areas across continents. Through a combination of techniques utilizing distribution records and environmental predictor variables, the study predicts the E. formosanus ecological niche. The models show high accuracy with AUC values of 0.959 ± 0.023, TSS of 0.852 ± 0.048, and Jaccard coefficients of 0.865 ± 0.037. The findings reveal a widespread global suitability for E. formosanus, encompassing previously unreported regions in Papua New Guinea, South Korea, Europe, Africa, and Australasia, with notable suitability in the Americas and a well-established presence from Japan to India in Asia. South American regions from northern Guyana to western Venezuela and along the Brazilian Atlantic coast are particularly suitable. The identified suitable areas significantly overlap with Pinus occurrences, primarily in temperate zones, pinpointing potential regions at invasion risk. Additionally, we recorded for the first time the occurrence of E. formosanus in South America. Given the recent discovery of this species in Brazil, this overlap necessitates urgent attention to potential invasion regions and pathways. The study underscores the importance of focused sampling in potential distribution areas and highlights the utility of ecological niche modeling in predicting and managing the spread of invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The golden twin-spot moth, Chrysodeixis chalcites Esper (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is a polyphagous, polyvoltine crop pest occurring natively from northern Europe to Mediterranean Africa and the Canary Islands. Larvae feed on a wide variety of naturally occurring plants as well as soybean and other legume crops, short staple cotton, tomato, potato, peppers, tobacco, and banana. Chrysodeixis chalcites has been recorded in agricultural lands in the Ontario peninsula in eastern Canada and in northern counties of Indiana, USA. Given the strong potential for C. chalcites to invade USA crop lands, it is important to identify environments most likely to sustain growing populations of this pest. Though C.chalcites is native to Europe and North Africa, it has invaded sub-Saharan Africa. Using occurrence data form the native and invaded ranges, and environmental predictors including bioclimatic conditions and human disturbance, we trained three ecological niche models to estimate an ensemble prediction of environmental suitability in the contiguous US. Because human impact is potentially a confounding predictor, models were trained both with and without it. High environmental suitability was projected for the Atlantic coast from New England to Florida, the Gulf coast, the lower Midwest, and the Pacific coast and Central Valley of California. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Background: Among the 22 species in the Vespa genus, five have successfully established populations outside their native ranges, while four others have been recorded either in natural habitats or during border inspections in various countries. This study aims to assess the potential threat posed by 12 hornet species-Vespa crabro, Vespa mandarinia, Vespa simillima, Vespa velutina, Vespa affinis, Vespa analis, Vespa basalis, Vespa bicolor, Vespa ducalis, Vespa dybowskii, Vespa soror, and Vespa tropica-within the geographical and ecological context of Iran, an arid Middle Eastern country. Using ecological niche modeling, we analyzed species occurrence data alongside climatic variables with minimal correlation to predict the potential distribution of these hornets across Iran. The mobility-oriented parity method was applied to identify areas where strict extrapolation is relevant for these species. Additionally, we generated a habitat suitability map for Apis mellifera (honey bee) using ecological niche modeling and compared the spatial overlap between the predicted risk maps for the hornets and the honey bee habitat suitability map, employing Schoener's D metric. Results: The results revealed two key findings. First, a significant portion of Iran exhibits climatic dissimilarity compared to the native habitats of certain hornet species. Second, the spatial overlap analysis showed varying degrees of overlap between A. mellifera habitats and the potential distributions of different hornet species. Notably, V. mandarinia and V. crabro demonstrated the highest overlap values (D = 0.68), suggesting that these hornets could share substantial habitat preferences or ecological roles with honey bees in Iran. Conclusions: Although most regions of Iran appear less suitable for hornet invasions, caution is warranted in the northern areas, where trade and exchanges could serve as pathways for Vespa hornet introductions. These findings highlight the importance of targeted monitoring and preventative measures in these high-risk regions.

Using a phylogenetic analysis as a baseline, we conducted a taxonomic revision of the genus Loncovilius Germain, 1903 which now includes 10 valid species. Of them, six species, all restricted to the southern Andean region, are described as new for science: Loncovilius barclayi sp. nov. , L. cantharoides sp. nov. , L. carlsbergi sp. nov. , L. hammondi sp. nov. , L. impunctus sp. nov. , and Loncovilius variabilis sp. nov. A lectotype is designated for Loncovilius edwardsianus and an updated key is provided for the identification of all species of the genus. Apoquedius stat. nov. and Lienturius stat. nov. initially described as a subgenera, are given a status of separate genera within Amblyopinini. Our phylogeny necessitated the following new combinations: Apoquedius aeneipennis , comb. nov. , A. piciformis , comb. nov. , Lienturius leiocephalus , comb. nov. , Sphingoquedius discoideus , comb. nov. and S. brevis , comb. nov. and Sphingoquedius nanus , comb. nov. The ecological niche modeling analyses predict a substantial contraction of the local distribution range of L. cantharoides , L. edwardsianus , and L. lividipennis during the warmer periods of the future. For L. variabilis most areas are predicted to remain suitable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic changes can affect species distributions, population abundance, and evolution. Such organismal responses could be determined by the amount and quality of available habitats, which can vary independently. In this study, we assessed changes in habitat quantity and quality independently to generate explicit predictions of the species' responses to climatic changes between Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and present day. We built ecological niche models for genetic groups within 21 reptile, mammal, and plant taxa from the Baja California peninsula inhabiting lowland or highland environments. Significant niche divergence was detected for all clades within species, along with significant differences in the niche breadth and area of distribution between northern and southern clades. We quantified habitat quantity from the distribution models, and most clades showed a reduction in distribution area towards LGM. Further, niche marginality (used as a measure of habitat quality) was higher during LGM for most clades, except for northern highland species. Our results suggest that changes in habitat quantity and quality can affect organismal responses independently. This allows the prediction of genomic signatures associated with changes in effective population size and selection pressure that could be explicitly tested from our models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An ongoing challenge in evolutionary and ecological research focuses on testing biogeographic hypotheses for the understanding of both species' distributional patterns and of the factors influencing range limits. In this study, we described the climatic niches of Neotropical humid montane forest birds through the analysis of factors driving their evolution at inter‐ and intraspecific levels; and tested for differences among allopatric lineages within Aulacorhynchus, Chlorospingus, Cardellina, and Eupherusa. We employed ecological niche models (ENMs) along with an ordination approach with kernel smoothing to perform niche overlap analyses and test hypotheses of niche equivalence/similarity among lineages. In addition, we described the potential distributions of each lineage during the Late Pleistocene climate fluctuations, identifying historical range expansions, connectivity, and stability. Overall, we observed differences in environmental variables influencing climatic requirements and distributional patterns for our selected species. We detected the highest values of niche overlap mainly between Eupherusa and some Chlorospingus lineages. At both interspecific and intraspecific levels, sister lineages showed non‐identical environmental niches. Our results offer weak support to a moist forest model, in which populations followed the expansion and contraction cycles of montane forests, leading to a lack of niche conservatism among lineages (they tend to occupy not identical climatic environments) throughout Mesoamerica. Therefore, historical climatic conditions may act as ecological barriers determining the distributional ranges of these species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geoffroy's cat (Leopardus geoffroyi) is a small‐sized felid native to South America. Given the species' distribution covering a wide variety of habitats, and the presence of high levels of anthropization in part of its range, it is possible that genetically differentiated groups exist and that they occupy different climatic niches. We assessed patterns of contemporary genetic diversity and structure in the species across most of its range, characterizing each inferred genetic group based on ecological niche models. We genotyped 11 microsatellites for 142 samples covering most of Geoffroy's cat distribution, and investigated patterns of genetic structure and diversity, applying spatial and nonspatial Bayesian clustering methods and a spatial principal component analysis. We created ecological niche models for each genetic cluster, evaluating whether these clusters occupy different climatic spaces and display differences in the suitability of different values of the climatic variables analyzed. We identified two genetic clusters, one in the north‐northeast and the other in the south‐southwest of the species' distribution. These clusters showed moderate FST values between them and differences in dispersal/genetic diversity. We found isolation‐by‐distance patterns globally and within each cluster. We observed lower expected heterozygosity compared with other studies and a north–south gradient in allelic richness. The southern cluster showed lower genetic variability and a more restricted climatic niche suggesting that this group is more vulnerable to the effects of the current context of climate change. Individuals from the southern genetic cluster are under different pressures, likely a product of the particularly dry habitat they occupy. Climatic variables associated with habitat suitability suggest the southern cluster has affinity for the arid and semiarid conditions present in its distribution. Conservation measures should consider the genetic structure observed and differences in climatic spaces to maintain the evolutionary potential of the species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parasites are facing a loss in biodiversity in a changing climate. In this context, the present study aimed to evaluate the influence of climate change on Hoplias malabaricus and its species of monogenetic and digenetic parasites. The models were developed for South America and the species occurrence data were obtained from databases and digital platforms. The bioclimatic, edaphic, elevation, and slope variables were obtained from specialized platforms. Thus, to generate species distribution models, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Generalized Linear Model algorithms were used. All predictions of the model for a species were combined to obtain its final model (Ensemble) for the present and future scenarios. As a result, definitive hosts of the parasites showed high climatic suitability. The broad niche of these species indicated that these organisms can show certain opportunistic and generalist characteristics. Unlike their parasites that revealed a more restricted distribution than their host. Also, in a future scenario, endoparasite species will generally reduce 99% of their populations, ectoparasites 93%, while some hosts will increase their populations. In conclusion, the study assumed that future climatic events can influence parasites and their hosts differently, whereas anthropization can influence parasite extinction even without directly affecting their hosts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deterioration of natural habitats for oak species has steadily occurred as a consequence of both climate change and human pressure. Therefore, detailed and reliable information about the geographic distribution of oak species under changing climate conditions is needed for diverse ecological and conservation practices. This study examined the habitat suitability of endemic Kasnak oak, Quercus vulcanica Boiss. & Heldr. ex Kotschy, an endemic that ranges across the Central Anatolia Region and surrounding mountains in Türkiye. The occurrence data were gathered through fieldwork, and new records were identified. Next, we applied ecological niche modeling to assess the past, present-day, and future potential geographic range of the species in Anatolia. Projections for the Last Glacial Maximum indicate that most of the suitable areas for Kasnak oak were in southern Anatolia. However, present-day estimates suggest projections estimate suitable habitats in northern Anatolia and around the Anatolian Diagonal. According to future projections, the distribution of the species seems to decrease by 2100, with habitat suitability reduction ranging from 3.27% to 7.88%. Projections suggest a decrease in habitat suitability for the species, particularly in the western and southern Türkiye in the future. Moreover, the projections indicated that suitable habitats for the northern range of the species would likely persist until 2100, although they would diminish towards the northeast. The results can be effectively applied to enhance biodiversity conservation planning and management, leading to the development of innovative strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protecting rare and endangered species from habitat loss caused by climate and land use changes is crucial for stopping unprecedented biodiversity loss. Data on species' future range shifts is crucial in protected area management planning to establish proper refuges. This study focused on identifying the suitable habitat, vulnerabilities, and conservation gaps of Vatica guangxiensis—a canopy tree species endemic to the subtropical forests of southwest China and listed as Endangered in the IUCN Red List— through Maxent species distribution modeling using current and future climate data. Results showed that the predicted suitable habitats for V. guangxiensis under current climate were more extensive than its known range, encompassing parts of China, northern Laos, northern Vietnam, and eastern Myanmar. They are most likely to be in wetter regions with acidic soils. However, these habitats were predicted to decrease by 90% and shift to lower latitudes and higher elevations by 2081–2100 due to climate change, which leads to habitat loss for five out of twelve current wild populations, as well as severe fragmentation and reduced protected area coverage. Our findings demonstrate the potential for new field discoveries of V. guangxiensis based on its predicted distribution under current climate, but also show the vulnerability of its habitats under future climate change. We present a dire outlook for V. guangxiensis and highlight the need for field discovery of new populations and the establishment of ex situ populations that are explicitly guided by suitable habitat predictions. Furthermore, this study can contribute to the expansion of climate-informed protected areas in the Indochina region, to support the flagship '30 × 30' target for protected areas under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Lastly, our findings elucidate the importance of transboundary conservation efforts, such as the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Five-Year Action Plan, in preserving biodiversity and achieving global conservation goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distributions of both native and invasive species are expected to shift under future climate. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to explore future habitats, but sources of uncertainty including novel climate conditions may reduce the reliability of future projections. We explore the potential spread of the invasive annual grass ventenata (Ventenata dubia) in the western United States under both current and future climate scenarios using boosted regression tree models and 30 global climate models (GCMs). We quantify novel climate conditions, prediction variability arising from both the SDMs and GCMs, and the agreement among GCMs. Results demonstrate that currently suitable habitat is concentrated inside the invaded range of the northwest, but substantial habitat exists outside the invaded range in the Southern Rockies and southwestern US mountains. Future suitability projections vary greatly among GCMs, but GCMs commonly projected decreased suitability in the invaded range and increased suitability along higher elevations of interior mountainous areas. Climate novelty did not appear to undermine the prediction reliability in many cases where the climate–species relationship was fully represented by the occurrence data. GCM‐derived variability resulting from variation in future cool season precipitation and temperature seasonality was greatest in the Rocky Mountains. SDM‐derived variability was higher in currently suitable habitat, and few GCMs projections agreed that these areas would contain future suitable habitat. However, while prediction variability was high, many GCM projections agreed that parts of the Rocky, Wasatch, and Uinta Mountains would contain highly suitable habitat in the future. As disturbances in the interior mountains occur in coming decades, reducing some natural barriers to invasion, land managers, and conservationists will need to monitor for ventenata in post‐disturbance environments. Changes to invasion potential may not play out for several decades, but results related to current potential may have applications for early detection and rapid response planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change restricts and alters the distribution range of plant species. Predicting potential distribution and population dynamics is crucial to understanding species' geographical distribution characteristics to harness their economic and ecological benefits. This study uses Dendrocalamus brandisii as the research subject, aiming to accurately reveal the impact of climate change on this plant. The findings offer important insights for developing practical conservation and utilization strategies, and guidance for future introduction and cultivation. The MaxEnt model was optimized using regularization multiplier (RM) and feature combination (FC) from the 'Kuenm' package in R language, coupled with ArcGIS for modeling 142 distribution points and 29 environmental factors of D. brandisii. This article explored the key environmental factors influencing the potential suitable regions for D. brandisii, and predicted trends in habitat changes under SSPs2.6 and SSPs8.5 climate scenarios for the current era, the 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s. (1) The results show that when FC = QPH and RM = 1, the AUC = 0.989, indicating that the model prediction is accurate with the lowest complexity and overfitting. The key environmental factors affecting its primary suitable distribution, determined by jackknife training gain and single-factor response curve, are the precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18), the temperature seasonality (bio4), the minimum average monthly radiation (uvb-4), and elevation (Elev), contributing 93.6% collectively. It was established that the optimal range for D. brandisii is precipitation of warmest quarter of between 657 and 999 mm, temperature seasonality from 351% to 442%, minimum average monthly radiation from 2420 to 2786 J/m2/day, at elevation from 1099 to 2217 m. (2) The current potential habitat distribution is somewhat fragmented, covering an area of 92.17 × 104 km2, mainly located in southwest, south, and southeast China, central Nepal, southern Bhutan, eastern India, northwestern Myanmar, northern Laos, and northern Vietnam. (3) In future periods, under different climate scenario models, the potential habitat of D. brandisii will change in varying degrees to become more fragmented, with its distribution center generally shifting westward. The SSP8.5 scenario is not as favorable for the growth of D. brandisii as the SSPs2.6. Central Nepal, southern Bhutan, and the southeastern coastal areas of China have the potential to become another significant cultivation region for D. brandisii. The results provide a scientific basis for the planning of priority planting locations for potential introduction of D. brandisii in consideration of its cultivation ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present work describes the taxonomic and paleobiogeographic study of two fossil woods related to extant Aspidosperma. The silicified specimens come from the fossil localities of Santa Ana (30°54′S, 57°55′W) and Concordia (31°19′S, 57°59′W), Entre Ríos Province, Argentina, belonging to the El Palmar Formation (Late Pleistocene). This unit represents the sedimentary body of the upper fluvial terrace generated by the Uruguay River in its middle basin in eastern Argentina. The anatomical features that distinguish the woods are growth rings delimited by axial parenchyma and fibers, semi-ring to-diffuse-porous woods; mainly solitary vessels; simple perforation plates; alternate, bordered, and vestured intervessel pits; scarce paratracheal and diffuse apotracheal axial parenchyma; homocellular, and uniseriate to-triseriate rays; non-septate fibers. Climate reconstruction modelled at the regional scale (Ecological Niche Modeling) revealed variations in macroecological diversity patterns of the nearest living relatives (Aspidosperma australe and A. polyneuron) over the last ca. 130,000 years. Optically stimulated luminescence dating of sediments from the upper part of the El Palmar Formation in the type area reveals that the unit spans from the Last Interglacial period (warm substage, MIS marine isotope stage 5a), to the penultimate interglacial (MIS 7). This period was characterized by warmer and wetter conditions than those observed today. The eco-anatomical characteristics of the fossil record reflect this type of environment. The modern analogues of the fossils studied here are now part of the forests that integrate the Atlantic forest and Araucaria forest biogeographic provinces in South America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of global climate and land‐use changes on distribution patterns and breeding sites remain today poorly studied for several vulnerable emblematic bird species, including the Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos). Herein, we analyzed the potential effect of global climate changes and agricultural activities on the distribution patterns of this top predator across Mexico. We assessed the long-term role of protected areas (PAs) for safeguarding the species' overall distribution and its breeding sites. We evaluated current and future (2040s, 2060s, and 2080s) threats from global change using ecological niche modeling and geographic information system approaches to determine the percentage of the species' distribution area that overlaps with highly human-modified areas and PAs under each climate scenario. We also used niche overlap tests to assess whether the species' breeding sites show equivalence or similarity of climatic conditions over time. Our findings revealed shifts in the Golden Eagle's distributional area, with an overall size reduction (by ~ 57% in the 2040s and ~ 78% in the 2080s) due to future environmental changes, mainly attributable to increasingly dry and warm conditions. Mexican PAs cover ~ 12% of the Golden Eagle's range across country, but this decreased by > 33% on average under the species' future distributions. Although the hypothesis of equivalent climatic conditions at breeding sites over time was rejected, those sites did have long-term climate similarity (niche overlap: 0.75–0.83; P < 0.05). Considering the species' nest site fidelity and that colonization of new areas within Mexico seems unlikely, protection of these breeding sites is a critical step for the long-term conservation of this emblematic species in Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reaumuria songarica, a drought‐resistant shrub, is widely distributed and plays a crucial role in the northern deserts of China. It is a key species for desert rehabilitation and afforestation efforts. Using the Maxent model to predict suitable planting areas for R. songarica is an important strategy for combating desertification. With 184 occurrence points of R. songarica and 13 environmental variables, the optimized Maxent model has identified the main limiting factors for its distribution. Distribution patterns and variation trends of R. songarica were projected for current and future climates (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) and different scenarios (ssp_126, ssp_370, and ssp_585). Results show that setting parameters to RM (regulation multiplier) = 4 and FC (feature combination) = LQHPT yields a model with good accuracy and high reliability. Currently, R. songarica is primarily suitable for desert control in eight provinces and autonomous regions, including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The total suitable planting area is 148.80 × 104 km2, representing 15.45% of China's land area. Precipitation (Precipitation of the wettest month, Precipitation of the warmest quarter, and Annual precipitation) and Ultraviolet‐B seasonality are the primary environmental factors limiting the growth and distribution of R. songarica. Mean temperature of the warmest quarter is the primary factor driving changes in the distribution of suitable areas for R. songarica under future climate scenarios. In future climate scenarios, the suitable planting area of R. songarica will shrink, and the distribution center will shift towards higher latitude, potentially indicate further desertification. The area of highly suitable habitat has increased, while moderately and less suitable habitat areas have decreased. Increased precipitation within R. songarica's water tolerance range is favorable for its growth and reproduction. With changes in the suitable cultivation area for R. songarica, priority should be given to exploring and utilizing its germplasm resources. Introduction and cultivation can be conducted in expanding regions, while scientifically effective measures should be implemented to protect germplasm resources in contracting regions. The findings of this study provide a theoretical basis for addressing desertification resulting from climate change and offer practical insights for the development, utilization, introduction, and cultivation of R. songarica germplasm resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hybrid zones occur in nature when populations with limited reproductive barriers overlap in space. Many hybrid zones persist over time, and different models have been proposed to explain how selection can maintain hybrid zone stability. More empirical studies are needed to elucidate the role of ecological adaptation in maintaining stable hybrid zones. Here, we investigated the role of exogenous factors in maintaining a hybrid zone between western gulls (Larus occidentalis) and glaucous‐winged gulls (L. glaucescens). We used ecological niche models (ENMs) and niche similarity tests to quantify and examine the ecological niches of western gulls, glaucous‐winged gulls, and their hybrids. We found evidence of niche divergence between all three groups. Our results support the bounded superiority model, providing further evidence that exogenous selection favoring hybrids may be an important factor in maintaining this stable hybrid zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) has historically played a vital role in agriculture across the globe. Feral and wild populations have served as genetic resources for breeding, conservation, and adaptation to changing environmental conditions. However, feral populations of Cannabis, specifically in the Midwestern United States, remain poorly understood. This study aims to characterize the abiotic tolerances of these populations, estimate suitable areas, identify regions at risk of abiotic suitability change, and highlight the utility of ecological niche models (ENMs) in germplasm conservation. The Maxent algorithm was used to construct a series of ENMs. Validation metrics and MOP (Mobility‐oriented Parity) analysis were used to assess extrapolation risk and model performance. We also projected the final projected under current and future climate scenarios (2021–2040 and 2061–2080) to assess how abiotic suitability changes with time. Climate change scenarios indicated an expansion of suitable habitat, with priority areas for germplasm collection in Indiana, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. This study demonstrates the application of ENMs for characterizing feral Cannabis populations and highlights their value in germplasm conservation and breeding efforts. Populations of feral C. sativa in the Midwest are of high interest, and future research should focus on utilizing tools to aid the collection of materials for the characterization of genetic diversity and adaptation to a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Parapatric sister species are ideal for tests of ecological interactions. Pacific (Martes caurina) and American pine (M. americana) martens are economically and culturally valuable furbearers that hybridize in the north-central Rocky Mountains. Despite preliminary evidence of biased introgression, the hybrid zone has been geographically stable for 70 years, but interspecific ecological interactions have yet to be examined in detail. Objectives: We test whether ecological interactions may influence the outcome of hybridization in this system. To that end, we estimate the fundamental niche of each species and gauge how suitability landscapes change when the two species are in contact. Methods: We genotyped > 400 martens from the Rocky Mountain hybrid zone to diagnose individuals to species-level and identify putative hybrids. We then built range-wide ecological niche models for each species, excluding individuals in the hybrid zone, to approximate their respective fundamental niches. Those models were projected into the hybrid zone and compared with niche models trained on individuals within the hybrid zone to assess how niche dynamics change when the species are in sympatry. Results: The fundamental niche of each species differed significantly, while the hybrid zone was equally suitable for both. Niches of each species based on models built within the hybrid zone showed that Pacific martens utilized significantly less suitable habitat than expected based on their range-wide fundamental niche, suggesting that species interactions shape local hybridization. We detected few admixed individuals (12%), with no evidence of directional (sex or species) biases. Interstate-90 further acts as a major dispersal barrier. Conclusions: North American martens are currently managed as a single species by some state agencies, yet significant ecological and genetic differences indicate they should be managed separately. The observed ecological displacement of Pacific martens by American pine martens may partially explain the mixed success of historical, mixed-species wildlife translocations and cautions such translocations in the future. Landscape-scale consideration of ecological dynamics, in addition to molecular compatibility, will be essential to the success of future translocations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the intricate interplay between the geographic distributions of species and the dynamics of environmental factors is crucial for effective biodiversity management. Crop wild relatives are important resources for the improvement of cultivated plants. However, our understanding of how these species might respond to future climatic changes and their implications for conservation remains incomplete. In this study, we focus on the ecologically and economically significant hickory trees to address this knowledge gap. We employed the Biomod2 ensemble model to predict the potential distributions of 12 North American and five East Asian Carya species based on 13,643 occurrence points and 26 environmental variables. We analyzed the distribution range dynamics of hickory trees across the past, present, and future emission scenarios (2090; SSP126 and SSP585), assessed their conservation status, and conducted a preliminary threat assessment. Our results indicate that most Carya species expanded their habitat range from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present, with substantial contraction projected under both future scenarios. A northward migration shift to high elevations was observed for most species from the LGM to the future. Sixteen species were categorized as “medium priority” for further conservation action, and only one (C. tonkinensis) as “high priority”. Preliminary threat assessment classified one species (C. luana) as critically endangered, eight endangered, four vulnerable, and five as least concern. This study underscores the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of Carya species, providing crucial insights for their conservation and highlighting the broader impacts of climate change on crop wild relatives.

Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a valuable tool for inferring suitable environmental conditions and estimating species’ geographic distributions. ENM is widely used to assess the potential effects of climate change on species distributions; however, the choice of modeling algorithm introduces substantial uncertainty, especially since future projections cannot be properly validated. In this study, we evaluated the performance of seven popular modeling algorithms—Bioclim, generalized additive models (GAM), generalized linear models (GLM), boosted regression trees (BRT), Maxent, random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM)—in transferring ENM across time, using Mexican endemic rodents as a model system. We used a retrospective approach, transferring models from the near past (1950–1979) to more recent conditions (1980–2009) and vice versa, to evaluate their performance in both forecasting and hindcasting. Consistent with previous studies, our results highlight that input data quality and algorithm choice significantly impact model accuracy, but most importantly, we found that algorithm performance varied between forecasting and hindcasting. While no single algorithm outperformed the others in both temporal directions, RF generally showed better performance for forecasting, while Maxent performed better in hindcasting, though it was more sensitive to small sample sizes. Bioclim consistently showed the lowest performance. These findings underscore that not all species or algorithms are suited for temporal projections. Therefore, we strongly recommend conducting a thorough evaluation of the data quality—in terms of quantity and potential biases—of the species of interest. Based on this assessment, appropriate algorithm(s) should be carefully selected and rigorously tested before proceeding with temporal transfers.

Measuring the potential effects of future climate changes on the spatio-temporal variance of optimal conditions for seasonal species is a key conservation issue. This study assesses the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal patterns of optimal conditions for activity in two burrowing frogs, Smilisca fodiens and S. dentata. Ecological Niche Modeling was used to implement niche seasonality models, with calibration performed during the peak activity (July). These models were then transferred to current and future conditions for the remainder of the year, predicting future scenarios up to 2070 with an intermediate trajectory greenhouse gas concentration of 4.5 W/m2. Climate change transferability was assessed for four potential scenarios: 1) high precipitation and low temperature, 2) high precipitation and high temperature, 3) low precipitation and low temperature, and 4) low precipitation and high temperature. We examined the impact across future projected areas and analyzed geographic change trends based on latitude, longitude, and elevation. For both species, the best scenario would involve increased precipitation in the future. However, the worst-case would be a combination of reduced precipitation and higher temperatures. Due to large area loss, northern populations of S. fodiens may be highly vulnerable. Concerning S. dentata, the outlook is worrisome, with all known populations experiencing losses in most months. Area gains may not help either species since they tend to occur at elevations above their known ranges. Using a seasonal approach in spatio-temporal analysis enhances comprehension of the behavioral adaptations of seasonal species and their vulnerability to current and future climatic variations

Geological and climatic events have long been considered to profoundly affect population evolution and demographic history of species, but the population evolutionary history of the rare and endangered herbaceous plants in East Asia remains less well understood. In this study, chloroplast genomes, environmental variables and geographical distribution information were integrated to determine the evolutionary history and population dynamics of Bergenia scopulosa T.P.Wang, an endangered medicinal herb endemic in central China (Qinling Mountains). Population genomic analysis based on chloroplast genomes indicated a significant degree of intraspecific differentiation within B. scopulosa, where two separate genetic lineages were identified in the eastern and western groups in the Qinling Mountains, respectively. The two groups were found to have a low level of nucleotide diversity. Meanwhile, ecological niche analysis revealed that the two groups had obvious ecological divergence. Species distribution modeling illustrated that B. scopulosa had experienced a prominent population contraction from the interglacial periods to the present, while the suitable habitat was predicted to shift to higher elevations in response to global warming in future scenarios. These findings suggested that the geological and environmental factors together affected the intraspecific divergence and population dynamics of B. scopulosa in the Qinling Mountains in East Asia. In particular, geographic isolation appeared to play a greater role in genetic differentiation within B. scopulosa. Therefore, the evolutionary conservation units of eastern and western groups should be correspondingly established for this endangered medicinal herb B. scopulosa.

Ecological niche modeling is a widely used tool to predict species distribution considering current, past, or future climate change scenarios across different geographic areas. Modeling scenarios allow researchers to assess the impacts of climate change on species distribution and identify priority areas for conservation. This study aimed to model the current and future potential distribution of Ceiba glaziovii under different climate change scenarios in Brazil. The MaxEnt algorithm was used to correlate species occurrence points with bioclimatic variables in current and future climate scenarios. Four General Circulation Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 were employed: BCC-CSM2-MR, CNRM-CM6-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and MIROC6, considering optimistic and pessimistic projections. The contribution of variables and model accuracy were assessed using the Jackknife statistical test and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) parameter. AUC values for current and future scenarios demonstrated high accuracy. The bioclimatic variables of precipitation and temperature were the main contributors to determining areas with higher habitat suitability. In the future climate scenario, there was a reduction in areas with good climatic suitability for all four GCMs, considering optimistic and pessimistic projections. Among the areas with high habitat suitability, the IPSL-CM6A-1 model in the optimistic projection showed the smallest reduction, while in the pessimistic scenario, all areas with high suitability disappeared. The species' climatic niche is expected to decrease under all tested climate change scenarios. The central areas of the Caatinga and its transition zones exhibit the highest climatic suitability in current and future scenarios and should be prioritized for the species' conservation.

Mexico’s topographic and environmental heterogeneity, in combination with environmental fluctuations of the Neogene-Quaternary, has uniquely influenced the evolutionary history and distribution patterns of the region’s flora and fauna, sometimes causing closely related species to exhibit distinct climatic niches. Our study aimed to characterize the climatic niches of Thamnophis scalaris and Thamnophis scaliger, as well as evaluate the impact of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition on their paleodistributions. We generated 357 models per species, each with three sets of distinct combinations of climatic variables, based on 108 occurrence records for T. scalaris and 62 for T. scaliger. We evaluated the niche overlap, equivalency, and similarity between both species and transferred the present-day models to eight distinct historical periods, with the goal of encompassing the distinctive climatic variation of the Pleistocene-Holocene (P-H) transition. Both species showed significant differences in their respective climatic regimes and did not display climatic niche conservatism (the tendency of species to retain ancestral ecological characteristics), despite their previously reported ecological, morphological, and biogeographic similarities. Likewise, they seem to have responded similarly to the environmental changes in the P-H, with both paleodistributions experiencing expansion phases during glacial periods and contraction phases during interglacial periods. Possible areas of refugia that remained climatically stable and viable for both species throughout this period were identified. These refugia could potentially harbor a greater genetic diversity with respect to regions that recently acquired suitable conditions for the establishment of these populations. As such, this work offers a methodological procedure that may be used as an early inference for identifying specific regions of interest in phylogeographic studies and conservation planning.