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Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged, but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed. However, detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning of vegetation remain scarce. In this study, we utilized the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as an indicator of vegetation to investigate the trends of vegetation greening and browning (monotonic, interruption, and reversal) through the breaks for the additive season and trend (BFAST) method across China’s drylands from 1982 to 2022. It also reveals the impacts of ecological restoration programs (ERPs) and climate change on these vegetation trends. We find that the vegetation displays an obvious pattern of east-greening and west-browning in China’s drylands. Greening trends mainly exhibits monotonic greening (29.8 %) and greening with setback (36.8 %), whereas browning shows a greening to browning reversal (19.2 %). The increase rate of greening to browning reversal is 0.0342/yr, which is apparently greater than that of greening with setback, 0.0078/yr. This research highlights that, under the background of widespread vegetation greening, vegetation browning is progressively increasing due to the effects of climate change. Furthermore, the ERPs have significantly increased vegetation coverage, with the increase rate in 2000–2022 being twice as much as that of 1982–1999 in revegetation regions. Vegetation browning in southwestern Qingzang Plateau is primarily driven by adverse climatic factors and anthropogenic disturbances, which offset the efforts of ERPs.

Ecosystem services (ESs) are important for supporting human development. However, a changing climate and anthropogenic impacts are resulting in the degradation of dryland ecosystems to varying degrees. While there has been the global implementation of Ecological Restoration Programs (ERPs) to restore degraded ecosystems, there remains limited comprehensive assessment of their impacts on ESs of drylands. In this study, the sandy areas of northern China were used as the study area. The RUSLE, RWEQ, CASA, and InVEST models were used to simulate four major ESs: soil conservation (SC), sand fixation (SF), carbon sequestration (CS), and water yield (WY). The study aimed to evaluate the influences of various ERPs on major ESs. The dominant factors affecting the overall benefits provided by ESs were also identified. Since ERPs were implemented, forest areas have increased by 2.8 × 104 km2, whereas the areas of cropland, shrubland, and grassland have decreased. There were generally increasing trends in SF, SC, and CS, whereas there was a decreasing trend in WY. We then used a scenario-based simulation approach to eliminate the influence of climate variability on ESs. The results showed increasing trends in SF, SC, and CS, whereas there were minimal changes in WY. The results suggested that although ERPs can significantly increase regional ESs, unregulated expansion in vegetation can result in a water crisis and affect regional water security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem services (ESs) are important for supporting human development. However, a changing climate and anthropogenic impacts are resulting in the degradation of dryland ecosystems to varying degrees. While there has been the global implementation of Ecological Restoration Programs (ERPs) to restore degraded ecosystems, there remains limited comprehensive assessment of their impacts on ESs of drylands. In this study, the sandy areas of northern China were used as the study area. The RUSLE, RWEQ, CASA, and InVEST models were used to simulate four major ESs: soil conservation (SC), sand fixation (SF), carbon sequestration (CS), and water yield (WY). The study aimed to evaluate the influences of various ERPs on major ESs. The dominant factors affecting the overall benefits provided by ESs were also identified. Since ERPs were implemented, forest areas have increased by 2.8 × 104 km2, whereas the areas of cropland, shrubland, and grassland have decreased. There were generally increasing trends in SF, SC, and CS, whereas there was a decreasing trend in WY. We then used a scenario-based simulation approach to eliminate the influence of climate variability on ESs. The results showed increasing trends in SF, SC, and CS, whereas there were minimal changes in WY. The results suggested that although ERPs can significantly increase regional ESs, unregulated expansion in vegetation can result in a water crisis and affect regional water security.

Understanding the impact of land use change on ecosystem service values (ESV) will provide a valuable reference for the formulation and implementation of ecological restoration programs (ERPs) and land use policies. The Guizhou Province is a typical karst region with a fragile ecosystem in southwest China. During the past decades, multiple ERPs, especially the Grain for Green Program (GFGP), have been implemented in this region, which has resulted in dramatic land use change. However, how the ESV responded to land use change in Guizhou Province remains unclear. Moreover, few studies have addressed the response of ESV to different intensities of ERPs in the future. This study adopted the benefit transfer method to quantitatively evaluate the contributions of different land use transitions to ESV change in Guizhou Province from 2000 to 2020. Moreover, we designed three GFGP scenarios to explore the response of ESV to the intensity of GFGP and identify the priority areas. The results showed that the total ESV in Guizhou Province experienced a net increase of 10.64 billion USD from 2000 to 2020, which was mainly attributed to the expansion of forestland and water area. However, the transition from forestland to farmland resulted in a loss of 5.07 billion USD in ESV, accounting for 53.66% of the total ESV loss, which should receive enough attention. The total ESV will increase by 17.07 billion USD, 30.16 billion USD, and 48.58 billion USD under mild GFGP, moderate GFGP, and strong GFGP scenarios, respectively. The high-intensity GFGP enhanced the trade-off relationship between provision services and the other three kinds of services (i.e. regulating services, culture services, and habitant services). The moderate GFGP scenario (i.e. converting farmland on a slope greater than 20° into forestland) was the optimal intensity in Guizhou Province and Zunyi, Bijie, and Qiandongnan should be the priority areas to implement GFGP in the future. The trade-off relationship between ecosystem services should be taken into consideration and the suitable intensity of GFGP should be determined based on local characteristics in the formulation and implementation of GFGP. This study can provide references for formulating and optimizing ecological restoration policy in Guizhou Province.

Erosion-induced carbon sinks are a wild card in the global carbon budget. Soil erosion results in aggregate carbon sequestration by reforming organic–inorganic complexes at depositional areas and plant reserves. The carbon sinks at the depositional sites are rarely considered in the prediction of erosion-induced carbon sink dynamics. The effects of large-scale ecological restoration programs (ERPs) in subtropical regions on soil carbon sinks are still unclear. This study analyzed the potential effects of ERPs on erosion-induced carbon sinks in a red soil hilly region (RSHR) from 2030 to 2060. Based on a land use dataset and two climate scenarios of moderate (RCP4.5) and high emission paths (RCP8.5), three land use change (LUC) patterns were designed: an Ecological Restoration (ER) pattern; a Business-As-Usual (BAU) pattern; and a No LUC pattern. The results of the ER pattern and BAU pattern were compared with those of the No LUC pattern to reflect the role of ERPs in reducing erosion and increasing erosion-induced carbon sinks. The results indicated that the erosion-induced carbon sinks of forestland increased (58 kg km−2) in the BAU pattern under the RCP8.5 scenario and erosion-induced carbon sinks of cropland increased (39 kg km−2) in the ER pattern under the RCP8.5 scenario. In RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the erosion-induced carbon sinks of the RSHR increased by 210 Tg and 85 Tg from 2030 to 2060, respectively (1 Tg = 1012 g). The average annual erosion-induced carbon sink accounted for 3.84% and 1.41% of the annual average carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems, respectively. Neither the BAU pattern nor the ER pattern achieved the purpose of increasing grassland carbon sinks induced by soil erosion. Therefore, the focus of future ERP optimization should be to increase grassland carbon sinks. Our study provides new evidence for research into erosion-induced carbon sinks to mitigate global climate change and a scientific basis for increasing erosion-induced carbon sinks in croplands, forestlands and grasslands in the RSHR of southern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological Restoration Programs (ERP) is an effective approach to increase carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate climate change, but it’s still controversial whether they are as important to carbon sequestration in areas with higher rainfall and accumulated temperature as they are in areas with low rainfall and accumulated temperature. In this study, we evaluated the influences of ERP on land use change (LUC) and carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems in the red soil hilly region (RSHR) of China with higher rainfall and accumulated temperature. In view of the differences in LUC caused by ERP, the change point of ERP implementation was quantitatively determined in 2000 according to the characteristics of LUC, and divided the ERP implementation period into two stages: the early stage (1985–2000) and the mature stage (2000–2015). The Program Driving Force Model (PDFM) modified in this paper shows that ERP such as the Natural Forest Protection Program implemented in the mature stage has a greater driving effect on land use (+18%). Based on the three carbon pools (above-ground biomass, underground biomass, and soil organic carbon) of the ERP area in the forest land, cultivated land and grassland ecosystem, it is estimated that the total carbon storage of the terrestrial ecosystems generated in the period from 2000 to 2030 amounts to 1057.2 Tg, 65% of which is driven by ERP (691.6 Tg). Our estimates of future terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks from ERP, reduces further uncertainty to our capacity to predict the future of terrestrial carbon uptake and losses and to China's projected carbon emissions peak in 2030. The quantitative assessment of the driving force of ERP on LUC provides a methodological reference for related researches. The practice of changing land use and increasing carbon sinks through ERP provides guidance for offsetting carbon dioxide emission when China's carbon dioxide emissions is expected to reach the peak by 2030, and striking sustainable development.

To address severe grassland degradation problems, China has been implementing several national restoration programs, which have been reported to mitigate the deterioration of grassland ecosystem function. However, the regional differences in the effectiveness of the programs are not yet known. In this study, gross primary productivity (GPP) was selected as an indicator to analyze grassland degradation dynamics, and the residual trend method was used to assess the driving force of grassland degradation based on GPP. The results showed the GPP of Inner Mongolia grassland significantly increased by 3.94 g C m−2 yr−1 during 2000–2015, climate change was the dominant driving factors, while human activities slightly reduced grassland productivity (−0.17 g C m−2 yr−1). But there are obviously spatial heterogeneous on the impact of human activities. Specifically, grassland management significantly promoted the GPP increase in semidesert steppe, while grazing activity decreased the GPP in meadow and typical steppes. These findings suggest that ecological restoration programs could obviously improve vegetation functioning in ecologically fragile grassland which has relatively very low productivity. However, the grasslands with relative higher productivity or initially non-degraded are still facing with great degradation risk due to the continuous growing livestock scale. Therefore, policy-makers should pay more attention to the originally non-degraded or high productivity grasslands, especially at those years the negative impacts of intensive grazing could be concealed by the well-growth grass under abundant precipitation.

Erosion-induced carbon sinks are a wild card in the global carbon budget. Soil erosion results in aggregate carbon sequestration by reforming organic–inorganic complexes at depositional areas and plant reserves. The carbon sinks at the depositional sites are rarely considered in the prediction of erosion-induced carbon sink dynamics. The effects of large-scale ecological restoration programs (ERPs) in subtropical regions on soil carbon sinks are still unclear. This study analyzed the potential effects of ERPs on erosion-induced carbon sinks in a red soil hilly region (RSHR) from 2030 to 2060. Based on a land use dataset and two climate scenarios of moderate (RCP4.5) and high emission paths (RCP8.5), three land use change (LUC) patterns were designed: an Ecological Restoration (ER) pattern; a Business-As-Usual (BAU) pattern; and a No LUC pattern. The results of the ER pattern and BAU pattern were compared with those of the No LUC pattern to reflect the role of ERPs in reducing erosion and increasing erosion-induced carbon sinks. The results indicated that the erosion-induced carbon sinks of forestland increased (58 kg km−2) in the BAU pattern under the RCP8.5 scenario and erosion-induced carbon sinks of cropland increased (39 kg km−2) in the ER pattern under the RCP8.5 scenario. In RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the erosion-induced carbon sinks of the RSHR increased by 210 Tg and 85 Tg from 2030 to 2060, respectively (1 Tg = 1012 g). The average annual erosion-induced carbon sink accounted for 3.84% and 1.41% of the annual average carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems, respectively. Neither the BAU pattern nor the ER pattern achieved the purpose of increasing grassland carbon sinks induced by soil erosion. Therefore, the focus of future ERP optimization should be to increase grassland carbon sinks. Our study provides new evidence for research into erosion-induced carbon sinks to mitigate global climate change and a scientific basis for increasing erosion-induced carbon sinks in croplands, forestlands and grasslands in the RSHR of southern China.

Ecological restoration (ER) programs play an important role in local and global climate change and carbon management policy interventions. Water resource is a key criterion for assessing the sustainability of ERs. Herein, we explored the spatiotemporal patterns of rainfall interception (RI, an important component of ecosystem water budgets), and its drivers after ER implementation in China. Further, we assessed whether ERs are sustainable by analyzing the trends of RI and water supply. As expected, we found that ERs caused an increase in RI in China from 2001 to 2018 (0.64 mm yr ^−1 , p < 0.01). Changes in the normalized difference vegetation index and leaf area index contributed to a higher change in RI compared with other drivers. The decrease in RI was mainly recorded in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in Southwest, northern North, and southern Central and Southern China. Conversely, an increasing trend of RI was recorded in the Loess Plateau in Northwest, Northeast, and East China. Moreover, ERs are not always unsustainable in China, especially in Northeast, East, Central and Southern, and high-latitude regions of northern North China. Even in the Loess Plateau, which was criticized by previous studies, the unsustainability occurred only in the semi-humid region. Future ERs should be prioritized in southern parts of Eastern, Central, and Southern China, and must be appropriately considered in the Northeast and high-latitude regions in North China. It should be alert to the pressures of ERs on water supply, and its demand remains vigilant in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and semihumid areas of the Loess Plateau. This study provides new ideas for accurately evaluating the impact of ERs on water security and the sustainability of ERs.

Under the transformation from over-cultivation to ecological protection in China’s karst, how human activities affect ecosystem services should be studied. This study combined satellite imagery and ecosystem models (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA), Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST)) to evaluate primary ecosystem services (net ecosystem productivity (NEP), soil conservation and water yield) in a typical karst region (Huanjiang County). The relationships between human activities and ecosystem services were also examined. NEP increased from 441.7 g C/m2/yr in 2005 to 582.19 g C/m2/yr in 2015. Soil conservation also increased from 4.7 ton/ha to 5.5 ton/ha. Vegetation recovery and the conversion of farmland to forest, driven largely by restoration programs, contributed to this change. A positive relationship between increases in NEP, soil conservation and rural-urban migration (r = 0.62 and 0.53, P < 0.01, respectively) indicated decreasing human dependence on land reclamation and naturally regenerated vegetation. However, declining water yield from 784.3 to 724.5 mm highlights the trade-off between carbon sequestration and water yield should be considered. Our study suggests that conservation is critical to vegetation recovery in this region and that easing human pressure on land will play an important role.

Since the late 1970s, the Chinese government has initiated ecological restoration programs in the Three North Shelter Forest System Project (TNSFSP) area. Whether accelerated climate change will help or hinder these efforts is still poorly understood. Using the updated and extended AVHRR NDVI3g dataset from 1982 to 2011 and corresponding climatic data, we investigated vegetation variations in response to climate change. The results showed that the overall state of vegetation in the study region has improved over the past three decades. Vegetation cover significantly decreased in 23.1% and significantly increased in 21.8% of the study area. An increase in all three main vegetation types (forest, grassland, and cropland) was observed, but the trend was only statistically significant in cropland. In addition, bare and sparsely vegetated areas, mainly located in the western part of the study area, have significantly expanded since the early 2000s. A moisture condition analysis indicated that the study area experienced significant climate variations, with warm-wet conditions in the western region and warm-dry conditions in the eastern region. Correlation analysis showed that variations in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature. Ultimately, climate change influenced vegetation growth by controlling the availability of soil moisture. Further investigation suggested that the positive impacts of precipitation on NDVI have weakened in the study region, whereas the negative impacts from temperature have been enhanced in the eastern study area. However, over recent years, the negative temperature impacts have been converted to positive impacts in the western region. Considering the variations in the relationship between NDVI and climatic variables, the warm–dry climate in the eastern region is likely harmful to vegetation growth, whereas the warm–wet conditions in the western region may promote vegetation growth.

Distinguishing the vegetation dynamics induced by anthropogenic factors and identifying the major drivers can provide crucial information for designing actionable and practical countermeasures to restore degraded grassland ecosystems. Based on the residual trend (RESTREND) method, this study distinguished the vegetation dynamics induced by anthropogenic factors from the effects of climate variability on the Mongolian Plateau during 1993–2012 using vegetation optical depth (VOD) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), which measure vegetation water content in aboveground biomass and chlorophyll abundance in canopy cover respectively; afterwards, the major drivers within different agricultural zones and socio-institutional periods were identified by integrating agricultural statistics with statistical analysis techniques. The results showed that grasslands in Mongolia and the grazing zone of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR), China underwent a significant human-induced decrease in aboveground biomass during 1993–2012 and 1993–2000 respectively, which was attributable to the rapid growth of livestock densities stimulated by livestock privatization and market factors; by contrast, grasslands in these two regions did not experience a concurrent human-induced reduction in canopy greenness. Besides, the results indicated that grasslands in the grazing zone of IMAR underwent a significant human-induced increase in aboveground biomass since 2000, which was attributable to the reduced grazing pressure induced by China's ecological restoration programs; concurrently, grasslands in this region also experienced a remarkable increase in canopy greenness, however, this increase was found not directly caused by the decreased stocking densities. Furthermore, the results revealed that the farming and semi-grazing/farming zone of IMAR underwent a significant human-induced increase in both aboveground biomass and canopy greenness since 2000, which was attributable to the intensified grain production stimulated by market factors, open grazing regulation and confined feeding popularization. These findings suggest that China's grassland restoration practice has important implications for Mongolia to reverse the severe and continuous grassland degradation in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Ecosystem service value (ESV) experienced a net increase of 10.64 billion USD in Guizhou Province from 2000 to 2020. • Transition from forest to farmland resulted in 53.66% of ESV loss. • The total ESV will increase by 17.07 billion USD, 30.16 billion USD, and 48.58 billion USD under mild GFGP, moderate GFGP, and strong GFGP scenarios, respectively. • The moderate GFGP scenario (i.e. converting farmland on a slope greater than 20° into forestland) was the optimal intensity in Guizhou Province. Understanding the impact of land use change on ecosystem service values (ESV) will provide a valuable reference for the formulation and implementation of ecological restoration programs (ERPs) and land use policies. The Guizhou Province is a typical karst region with a fragile ecosystem in southwest China. During the past decades, multiple ERPs, especially the Grain for Green Program (GFGP), have been implemented in this region, which has resulted in dramatic land use change. However, how the ESV responded to land use change in Guizhou Province remains unclear. Moreover, few studies have addressed the response of ESV to different intensities of ERPs in the future. This study adopted the benefit transfer method to quantitatively evaluate the contributions of different land use transitions to ESV change in Guizhou Province from 2000 to 2020. Moreover, we designed three GFGP scenarios to explore the response of ESV to the intensity of GFGP and identify the priority areas. The results showed that the total ESV in Guizhou Province experienced a net increase of 10.64 billion USD from 2000 to 2020, which was mainly attributed to the expansion of forestland and water area. However, the transition from forestland to farmland resulted in a loss of 5.07 billion USD in ESV, accounting for 53.66% of the total ESV loss, which should receive enough attention. The total ESV will increase by 17.07 billion USD, 30.16 billion USD, and 48.58 billion USD under mild GFGP, moderate GFGP, and strong GFGP scenarios, respectively. The high-intensity GFGP enhanced the trade-off relationship between provision services and the other three kinds of services (i.e. regulating services, culture services, and habitant services). The moderate GFGP scenario (i.e. converting farmland on a slope greater than 20° into forestland) was the optimal intensity in Guizhou Province and Zunyi, Bijie, and Qiandongnan should be the priority areas to implement GFGP in the future. The trade-off relationship between ecosystem services should be taken into consideration and the suitable intensity of GFGP should be determined based on local characteristics in the formulation and implementation of GFGP. This study can provide references for formulating and optimizing ecological restoration policy in Guizhou Province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address devastating land desertification and soil erosion and to improve human well-being, central government in China has implemented a number of ecological restoration programs. It is essential to rigorously monitor the dynamic of vegetation activity and evaluate the effectiveness of these programs, not only to provide scientific support for ecosystem monitoring in arid and semi-arid region, but also to assess the efficiency of ecological restoration policy. Taking Inner Mongolia as study area, we used 13 years (2000–2012) of both climatic data and MODIS NDVI data to (1) assess the spatiotemporal vegetation dynamic and map areas of significant vegetation restoration and degradation, (2) analyze the impacts of climatic changes on vegetation activity and map areas where vegetation activity dynamic was significantly affected by climatic change, (3) map main driving forces of significant vegetation restoration or degradation, (4) validate the zones where vegetation significant restoration were mainly impacted by ecological restoration programs with vegetation fractional cover data in 2000 and 2012. Results showed an overall greening (15.38% significant NDVI increasing) and partial degradation (1.64% significant NDVI decreasing) in Inner Mongolia. It was estimated that annual precipitation most strongly and significantly limited vegetation growth over 45.1% of Inner Mongolia, whereas sunlit hours significantly limited growth over 3.37% and air temperature significantly over 0.73% of Inner Mongolia. Among the 15.38% significant greening region, 5.86% was caused by climatic changes, 5.67% was caused by ecological restoration programs, and the other 3.8% was caused by multi-factors. Among the 1.64% significant degradation region, 0.17% was caused by climatic changes and other 1.47% can be explained by human activities, such as population growth and city expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) is the largest ecological restoration program in the world. Evaluating the ecological effects of the SLCP not only provides a scientific basis for China to improve the SLCP but also provides a reference for other countries in the world to evaluate the ecological effects of ecological restoration programs being implemented or to be implemented. To this end, we took the Loess Plateau, the core area for the implementation of the SLCP, as an example and, based on multi-source remote sensing data and GIS technology, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the ecological effects of the implementation of the SLCP on the Loess Plateau. The results showed that, first, from 2000 to 2018, a total of 12,372.05 km 2 of cultivated land was converted into forest land and grassland on the Loess Plateau, and this contributed to an increase in vegetation cover from 45.09% in 2000 to 64.15% in 2018, and a decrease in the soil erosion modulus from 26.41 t·hm -2 ·yr -1 in 2000 to 17.92 t·hm -2 ·yr -1 in 2018. Second, the 6-25° slope range is the core area of the Loess Plateau for implementation of the SLCP. In this range, the area of cultivated land converted into forest land and grassland accounts for 60.16% of the total area of transferred cultivated land. As a result, the 6-25° slope range has become the most significant area for improving vegetation cover and reducing the soil erosion intensity, and it is mainly concentrated in the southwestern, central and central-eastern hilly and gully areas of the Loess Plateau. Third, from 2000 to 2018, the climate of the Loess Plateau tended to be warm and humid and was conducive to the implementation of the SLCP. Among these factors, precipitation is the dominant factor in determining the spatial distribution of vegetation on the Loess Plateau, and the increase in precipitation is also the main reason for the promotion of vegetation growth. Fourthly, from 2000 to 2018, the ecological environment of the Loess Plateau was significantly improved as a result of the combined effects of the implementation of the SLCP and climate warming and humidification, but the primary reason is still the implementation of the SLCP.

[Display omitted] • Divided the ERP implementation period into two stages based on the characteristics of land use changing. • A Programs Driving Force Model is modified to evaluate the driving effect of ERP on land use. • Prediction model and field investigation were used to estimate the carbon sequestration. • ERP-driven carbon stocks accounted for 65% (691.6Tg) from 2000 to 2030. Ecological Restoration Programs (ERP) is an effective approach to increase carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate climate change, but it's still controversial whether they are as important to carbon sequestration in areas with higher rainfall and accumulated temperature as they are in areas with low rainfall and accumulated temperature. In this study, we evaluated the influences of ERP on land use change (LUC) and carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems in the red soil hilly region (RSHR) of China with higher rainfall and accumulated temperature. In view of the differences in LUC caused by ERP, the change point of ERP implementation was quantitatively determined in 2000 according to the characteristics of LUC, and divided the ERP implementation period into two stages: the early stage (1985–2000) and the mature stage (2000–2015). The Program Driving Force Model (PDFM) modified in this paper shows that ERP such as the Natural Forest Protection Program implemented in the mature stage has a greater driving effect on land use (+18%). Based on the three carbon pools (above-ground biomass, underground biomass, and soil organic carbon) of the ERP area in the forest land, cultivated land and grassland ecosystem, it is estimated that the total carbon storage of the terrestrial ecosystems generated in the period from 2000 to 2030 amounts to 1057.2 Tg, 65% of which is driven by ERP (691.6 Tg). Our estimates of future terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks from ERP, reduces further uncertainty to our capacity to predict the future of terrestrial carbon uptake and losses and to China's projected carbon emissions peak in 2030. The quantitative assessment of the driving force of ERP on LUC provides a methodological reference for related researches. The practice of changing land use and increasing carbon sinks through ERP provides guidance for offsetting carbon dioxide emission when China's carbon dioxide emissions is expected to reach the peak by 2030, and striking sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological restoration programs (ERPs) have greatly expanded forested areas in China to mitigate environmental problems. Unfortunately, this general increase in forest cover has not revealed clear changes in the states of fragmentation and loss of connectivity of forested habitats, and few studies have investigated the effects of ERPs on the spatial patterns of forests. Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir Area as a case study, we assess and quantify how the dynamics of the spatial patterns of forest following massive ERPs from 1990 through 2015 by morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA). We examine possible landscape structure thresholds in the forest restoration gradient. The results indicate that dramatic decreases in forest fragmentation and patchiness have occurred since ERP implementation. Among the seven MSPA forest types, core forests show the highest increase of 513.91 km2·yr−1. ERPs promote the defragmentation of forests via two pathways: (1) Old forests are preserved and expanded by building new forests around existing patches and closing perforations within forests; and (2) new core forests are gradually created in areas far from older forests. However, isolated forest patches surrounded by cropland production areas formed after the conversion of croplands into forests have appeared across the study area. Furthermore, at least two points of nonlinear changes in the landscape structure with increasing forest cover are identified. These nonlinear trajectories can be used as indicators of critical shifts in ecosystem states, and relevant thresholds support the identification of specific conservation actions. Our findings demonstrate the importance of ERPs for the defragmentation of forest patches and provide a basis to establish a more effective arrangement of patches necessary to mitigate fragmentation effects. Given that landscape structural changes are not expected in ERP design, future ERPs should focus on remaining isolated forest patches and on maintaining the health and sustainability of landscapes. • Ecological restoration projects (ERPs) help defragment existing forest patches. • ERPs have extended old forests, created new core forests, and created various islets. • At least two points of nonlinear changes in the landscape structure are identified. • Useful information to guide landscape management and decision making is provided. • Future ERPs should focus on the health and sustainability of landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Discriminate the impacts of human activities on grassland productivity dynamics. • Ecological restoration improved vegetation activity in eco-fragile grasslands. • Higher productivity grasslands are facing with degradation by livestock growing. • Region-based foreseeable grassland management is needed before degradation appears. To address severe grassland degradation problems, China has been implementing several national restoration programs, which have been reported to mitigate the deterioration of grassland ecosystem function. However, the regional differences in the effectiveness of the programs are not yet known. In this study, gross primary productivity (GPP) was selected as an indicator to analyze grassland degradation dynamics, and the residual trend method was used to assess the driving force of grassland degradation based on GPP. The results showed the GPP of Inner Mongolia grassland significantly increased by 3.94 g C m−2 yr−1 during 2000–2015, climate change was the dominant driving factors, while human activities slightly reduced grassland productivity (−0.17 g C m−2 yr−1). But there are obviously spatial heterogeneous on the impact of human activities. Specifically, grassland management significantly promoted the GPP increase in semidesert steppe, while grazing activity decreased the GPP in meadow and typical steppes. These findings suggest that ecological restoration programs could obviously improve vegetation functioning in ecologically fragile grassland which has relatively very low productivity. However, the grasslands with relative higher productivity or initially non-degraded are still facing with great degradation risk due to the continuous growing livestock scale. Therefore, p olicy-makers should pay more attention to the originally non-degraded or high productivity grasslands, especially at those years the negative impacts of intensive grazing could be concealed by the well-growth grass under abundant precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological restoration programs have significantly contributed to the improvement of ecosystem services in the past two decades. However, due to climate change and rapid land use change, planning and management of ecosystem services restoration programs are still challenging, particularly how to identify and quantify the specific contribution of natural and human drivers of ecosystem services dynamics, how to assess and simulate the integrated impacts of climate-land use change interactions on changes in ecosystem services, insufficient simulation of mid- and long-term impacts of different ecological restoration programs, and lack of identification of ecological restoration thresholds. To overcome the challenges, we propose a new framework for restoring ecosystem services programs as potential solutions to the challenges. The framework includes attribution analysis of changes in ecosystem services, assessment and projections of ecosystem services dynamics under the integrated impacts of climate-land use change interactions, simulation of mid- and long-term effects of ecological programs and identification of ecological restoration threshold, which forms the logic chain of the framework, i.e. theory foundation-techniques support-application cases-policy implications. We finally recommend four related research directions and steps forward to overcome the challenges, including (1) Step 1: establish attribution analysis method of ecosystem services dynamics based on ecological thermodynamics and partial differential equation; (2) Step 2: Assess and simulate the impacts of coupled climate-land use change interactions on ecosystem services dynamics; (3) Step 3: Simulate the mid- and long-term impacts of different ecological restoration programs; and (4) Step 4: Identify ecological restoration thresholds. This study could provide insights for improving management of ecosystem services restoration programs in the context of rapid land use change and continuous climate change., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Under the transformation from over-cultivation to ecological protection in China's karst, how human activities affect ecosystem services should be studied. This study combined satellite imagery and ecosystem models (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA), Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST)) to evaluate primary ecosystem services (net ecosystem productivity (NEP), soil conservation and water yield) in a typical karst region (Huanjiang County). The relationships between human activities and ecosystem services were also examined. NEP increased from 441.7 g C/m2/yr in 2005 to 582.19 g C/m2/yr in 2015. Soil conservation also increased from 4.7 ton/ha to 5.5 ton/ha. Vegetation recovery and the conversion of farmland to forest, driven largely by restoration programs, contributed to this change. A positive relationship between increases in NEP, soil conservation and rural-urban migration (r = 0.62 and 0.53, P < 0.01, respectively) indicated decreasing human dependence on land reclamation and naturally regenerated vegetation. However, declining water yield from 784.3 to 724.5 mm highlights the trade-off between carbon sequestration and water yield should be considered. Our study suggests that conservation is critical to vegetation recovery in this region and that easing human pressure on land will play an important role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to control severe soil erosion, large-scale ecological restoration programs (ERPs) were undertaken, which greatly increased vegetation cover in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Although this has generated positive impacts on soil erosion reduction, the conflicts between water supply and the ERPs in the Loess Plateau remain debatable. The impacts of ERPs and climate change on soil erosion and water supply in the future received little attention. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze the potential impacts of ERPs on soil erosion and water yield by 2050 in northern Shaanxi, the Chinese Loess Plateau. Soil erosion and water yield were modelled for 2050 based on land use and land cover (LULC) retrospective datasets and downscaled climate scenarios. We designed three 2050 conservation scenarios (protection, business as usual (BAU), and No LULC change) and compared them to the 2015 baseline. The results indicate that soil erosion under the protection and BAU scenarios showed similar decreasing trends compared with the 2015 baseline. The water yield decreased for all three scenarios: by 28% (No LULC change scenario), 29% (BAU scenario), and 37% (protection scenario), indicating that climate change and ecological restoration are likely to place substantial pressures on water by 2050. Considering the water scarcity and climate scenarios in this region, stabilization of the vegetation cover at the 2015 levels may best support soil and water conservation in the future in northern Shaanxi. This study is expected to provide insights for decision-making to develop optimal soil and water conservation strategies in the semi-arid environment in China. Unlabelled Image • Water-related ecosystem services were evaluated between 1988 and 2050. • Soil erosion decreased after the implementation of ecological restoration programs. • Climate change will be the major driver of water yield decline by 2050. • Large-scale afforestation practices could accelerate water yield decline by 2050. • Current level of vegetation cover (2015) could support water and soil conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological restoration programs (ERPs) have been conducted in China since 2000 to improve ecological conditions, particularly in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China. Few have studied the effects of ERPs on landscape structure. Taking West Liaohe River Basin (WLRB) as a case study, we explored how landscape dynamics were altered before and after ERPs from 1990 through 2015 by using multi-temporal Landsat TM images. We analyzed the effects of ERPs on landscape structure by exploring the relationships between landscape features and land cover change (LCC). The results indicate that dramatic changes in land cover and landscape structure occurred before and after ERPs implementation. During 2000–2015 woodlands increased with a sharper annual growth, grasslands reclamation slowed down and was restricted, whereas more croplands were converted to grasslands and woodlands. ERPs decreased landscape fragmentation and increased landscape diversity, due mostly to the portion and spatial configures of croplands, grasslands and woodlands. Landscape fragmentation was significantly correlated with mean patch size of grasslands (r = −0.677, p < 0.0001) and woodlands (r = −0.515, p < 0.0001), as well as patch number ratio of croplands to the sum of grasslands and woodlands (r = −0.414, p < 0.01). Additionally, landscape diversity had a significant negative correlation with the areal ratio of grasslands (r = −0.345, p < 0.001). Our findings indicate that the LCCs were in agreement with ERPs' key goals. The changes in landscape structure in WLRB, however, were not expected from the ERPs design. Given the importance of landscape structure in human vulnerability to environment, it seemed that EPRs from the central government should not only regulate specific land use but also focus on the health and sustainability of the landscapes. Explicit function-based local landscape management should be taken into account for the future through better design and implementations of ERPs. Unlabelled Image • Ecological restoration programs (ERPs) affected landscape composition and structure. • ERPs decreased landscape fragmentation and increased landscape diversity. • Landscape fragmentation was correlated with mean patch size of grassland and forest. • Landscape diversity was negative correlated with the areal ratio of grassland. • Landscape structure changes were not expected in ERPs design but needed for future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]