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2 results on '"Economic development -- Forecasting -- Mathematical models"'

1. Information-analytical system for forecasting indicators of the social and economic sphere of the Russian Federation

Author

Kitova, Olga Viktorovna, Savinova, Viktoriya Mikhailovna, Dyakonova, Ludmila Pavlovna, Bruskin, Sergey Naumovich, Beshmelnitskiy, Anton Andreevich, Danko, Tamara Petrovna, and Sekerin, Vladimir Dmitrievich

Subjects
Neural networks (Computer science) -- Russia, Information technology -- Russia, Economic development -- Forecasting, Economic development -- Russia, Economic development -- Mathematical models, Economic development -- Econometric models, Economic development -- Forecasting -- Mathematical models
Abstract

Currently, the need for the real-time evaluation of the functioning effectiveness of the subjects of the Russian Federation is observed. To achieve this goal, the situation centers,able to perform the monitoring of the socio-economic indicators both at the federal and regional levels, are created in Russia.At the same time, it is necessary to implement the information-analytical system to make forecasts for the following periods, as well as to conduct a plan-fact analysis based on the available data, using various methods. In the framework of this study, the situation center of federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “Plekhanov Russian University of Economics” (FSBEI HE "Plekhanov RUE") is considered.The development of the information-analytical system based on a hybrid forecasting model,integrated with the software of the center under consideration, is proposed by the authors.The examples of the calculations and the estimation of their accuracy and quality, obtained with the prototype of the system under development, are presented., peer-reviewed

Published
2017

2. Forecast scenarios of world prices for natural gas

Author

Elyakova, Isabella Damdinovna, Khristoforov, Aleksandr Andreyevich, Elyakov, Aleksandr Lvovich, Danilova, Larisa Ivanovna, Karataeva, Tamara Aleksandrovna, and Danilova, Elena Vladimirovna

Subjects
Natural gas -- Costs, Economic development -- Mathematical models, Economic development -- Econometric models, Natural gas -- Prices, Natural gas -- Rates, Natural gas -- Prices -- Forecasting, Economic development -- Forecasting -- Mathematical models
Abstract

The study proposes forecast scenarios for the development of world prices for natural gas based on economic and mathematical modeling and the analysis of the historical trend of extraction, consumption, export and import of natural gas.The main research method is correlation-regression analysis which allowed establishing how strong the correlation of world prices for natural gas and world oil prices is. Also, the methods of historical trend and mathematical analysis were used to determine the main forecast scenarios for price levels of natural gas.The study represents a new approach to the analysis of the dynamics of world prices for natural gas based on economic and mathematical modeling.The article examines the dynamics of the global natural gas market and analyzes trends in price changes, as well as establishes the relationship between global prices for natural gas and the world oil market for making forecasts of the cost of natural gas., peer-reviewed

Published
2017

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