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The following article analyzes why an extension of the core-peripheral model is necessary for realistic economic use. The starting point is the core-peripheral model from Krugman. Various modifications are then made to make the Krugman model more robust, growth-oriented, and realistic. The models by Ricardian, Heckscher-Ohlin, Krugman, and Solow are combined by the author. This new model provides a general explanation model that is advantageous for the most diverse analyses that is, from rigid to dynamic, and growth theory-oriented model frameworks. The Ricardian model provides an immobile factor of work, perfect competition, distribution-free productions, comparative cost advantages, and constant economies of scale. The Heckscher-Ohlin theorem provides a second mobile input factor capital and production functions according to the equipment of the regions. The core-peripheral model provides aspects of monopolistic competition, cost functions, transportation costs, and spatial distribution. Depreciation rates, investment rates, and savings rates are taken over from the Solow model. We define the following parameters in the new model variant: reasons for model expansion, input factors, technology components, transportation costs, investment rate, savings rate, outputs, number of business/distribution, cost functions, consumer benefits, goods prices, wages, returns, and incomes., peer-reviewed

Purpose: To specify a Variable Elasticity of Substitution function (VES), in which the estimated Elasticity of Substitution (ES) can give some implications for the tendency of economic growth in the Vietnames manufacturing sector. Design/Methodology/Approach: The contribution and the relevant methodology is based on the Bayesian approach having some advantages over the frequentist method: (i) the simulation and prediction results are more reliable in Bayesian analysis due to combining prior knowledge about parameters with obverved data to compose a posterior model, whereas the frequentist approach is based only on available data; (ii) in probability sense, Bayesian credible intervals have a straightforward interpretation compared to frequentist confidence intervals. The Bayesian nonlinear regresion performed is suitable for fitting production functions and depicting economic growth. Findings: The specified VES function has the ES greater than one and this finding contradicts many previous empirical studies in the growth theory. This result points to the possibility of unbounded endogenous growth in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector. Practical implications: Based on the empirical results, in order to realize the possibility of endogenous growth for the studied Vietnamese manufacturing sector, policies of enforcing investment are needed. To raise the level of science and technique, as well as human capital of the Vietnamese enterprises, at the same time, there is great necessity to encourage R&D activities in both the private and public sectors. Originality/Value: Although this study organically builds upon recent studies about the link between the VES, the elasticity of factor subsitution and economic growth, its results proved that the VES is more appropriate than the Cobb-Douglas and the Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) to explain economic growth in the view of capital-labor relationship., peer-reviewed

This article considers the application of econometric calculations by the method of statistical dependence equations to analyze the relationships between various factors and the performance indicator. It is noted that the use of econometric calculations should be based on knowledge and understanding of the essence of economic processes and phenomena, the specifics of economic interrelations and the laws of their development. The study presents the methodology by using statistical dependence equations and calculating the factor stability coefficients based on the actual development indicators of the livestock sector in the Akmola region over several years., peer-reviewed

Currently, the need for the real-time evaluation of the functioning effectiveness of the subjects of the Russian Federation is observed. To achieve this goal, the situation centers,able to perform the monitoring of the socio-economic indicators both at the federal and regional levels, are created in Russia.At the same time, it is necessary to implement the information-analytical system to make forecasts for the following periods, as well as to conduct a plan-fact analysis based on the available data, using various methods. In the framework of this study, the situation center of federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “Plekhanov Russian University of Economics” (FSBEI HE "Plekhanov RUE") is considered.The development of the information-analytical system based on a hybrid forecasting model,integrated with the software of the center under consideration, is proposed by the authors.The examples of the calculations and the estimation of their accuracy and quality, obtained with the prototype of the system under development, are presented., peer-reviewed

PH.D., Fiscal rules aimed at instilling discipline to remove policy bias have in many cases failed at engendering fiscal sustainability. This is evident from the experiences of a number of countries within the European Union and elsewhere, over the past decade, culminating in what has been termed as the sovereign debt crisis. This policy failure coincides with notable lacunae in economic literature in providing an objective definition of ‘fiscal sustainability’ and a clear understanding of its determinants, particularly within the context of the functions of fiscal policy and the role played by economic fundamentals. This lack of conceptual framework results in assessments of fiscal sustainability which are often unduly biased towards the aggregate demand management perspective and reliant on targets and benchmarks with an insufficient basis for justification. To address these gaps, this thesis develops a model which embeds the net worth approach towards assessing fiscal financial performance within a Neo-Classical economic growth model. This enables an assessment of fiscal policy sustainability and optimality from the longer-term perspective of the allocative function of government intervention. The net worth component in the model provides the accounting relationships for the determination of fiscal sustainability through budget constraints. The economic growth model element enables the modelling of the allocation function of government within the context of an economic optimisation framework. Fiscal sustainability is on this basis defined in terms of the existence of a steady state equilibrium and of the growth dynamics enabling convergence towards it. The steady state dynamics of the model are studied through the use of phase diagrams, where the distinctions between ‘high and low productivity’ economies as well as economies featuring ‘structural surpluses or deficits’ are key factors for the assessment of fiscal sustainability. The dynamics of the economic model are presented for selected European economies, showing that results for sustainability are strongly determined by economic fundamentals. This leads to differences in the steady state values for assets, debt and consumption across countries, with consequent variations in the existence and values associated with sustainable positions. A key message derived from this work is that a sustainable debt-to-GDP ratio depends on a number of variables including ingrained government expenditure elements, productivity of assets, interest rates, depreciation of productive assets as well as the rate of time preference. This implies that a narrow focus on the deficit and debt ratios can provide a misguided assessment of fiscal sustainability. Furthermore, the sustainable debt ratio, if it exists, is not a static parameter but varies between countries and over time. Given the difference in the values of the exogenous parameters used in the model, it is also evident that there is no reason to assume that the application of any one target value which is independent of economic fundamentals can be justifiable, sustainable or optimal. The thesis also argues that the current fiscal governance structure adopted by the EU needs to be considered in light of the two extreme forms of superior fiscal governance, namely complete harmonisation and country-level optimisation. Through an extension of the conclusions derived from the economic model, a conceptual cost-benefit approach is presented, pitting the benefits obtained from lower interest rates against the cost of debt and asset reduction for a country forfeiting individual optimisation to participate in policy harmonisation. The analysis is extended through a case study approach, chiefly to assess points of convergence and differences in individual country assessments undertaken in the thesis as compared with Debt Sustainability Analyses carried out by the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission, and to identify the added value in the nature of results derived through the model as developed in this thesis. The conclusions confirm the importance of focusing on economic fundamentals, the relationship between medium term growth and the fiscal balance, and the level of productive assets needed to achieve steady state debt in order to derive rational conclusions regarding the sustainability of a country’s fiscal position. This indicates a potential need for reconsideration of the methodological approach used in mainstream Debt Sustainability Analyses. In conclusion, this thesis highlights the need for a subject as important as fiscal sustainability and the related policy implications to be firmly grounded in a rational, consistent and comprehensive theoretical framework rather than viewed through subjective and limited approaches. It is furthermore argued that the integration of a stock-flow accounting model within an economic growth modelling context founded on optimisation is a conceptual approach that can be usefully applied to other strands of economic research which focus on sustainability in general and on issues concerning the allocation function of fiscal policy in particular., N/A

The study proposes forecast scenarios for the development of world prices for natural gas based on economic and mathematical modeling and the analysis of the historical trend of extraction, consumption, export and import of natural gas.The main research method is correlation-regression analysis which allowed establishing how strong the correlation of world prices for natural gas and world oil prices is. Also, the methods of historical trend and mathematical analysis were used to determine the main forecast scenarios for price levels of natural gas.The study represents a new approach to the analysis of the dynamics of world prices for natural gas based on economic and mathematical modeling.The article examines the dynamics of the global natural gas market and analyzes trends in price changes, as well as establishes the relationship between global prices for natural gas and the world oil market for making forecasts of the cost of natural gas., peer-reviewed

After outlining the various methods used to estimate potential output, this article presents estim- ates for Malta, the smallest member of the euro area, de- rived from one of the most commonly used methods, the production function approach. Given the uncertainty surrounding these kinds of estimates, these estimates are compared with those made for Malta by other in- stitutions using di erent methods. Based on this ana- lysis and on a cross-country comparison with other euro area economies, a number of observations are made that would enable potential growth to accelerate and result in a faster economic convergence., peer-reviewed

The dissertation suggests that geographical, institutional, religious and cultural links may be determinants of growth. We address a number of issues in this thesis. The starting point is naturally a study on growth, while the main focus is on the analysis of inequalities between countries with respect to their environment, and also on inequalities within countries.The very first step of the study, presented in Chapter one, is to build such non-physical relations between countries. In this chapter, we present both the choices and methods used to model the institutional and cultural weights matrices. Chapter 1 also presents a comparative study between the different matrices built. The final aim of this chapter is to identify the differences between the geographical, institutional and cultural environment.The following chapter incorporates these innovative new types of matrices in a study on growth. An externality growth model is therefore developed that takes proximities between entities into account, whether geographical, institutional or cultural. The purpose of the chapter is threefold. First, it compares the results obtained from spatial econometrics methods with classical regression, where observations of growth are considered as independent. Second, it examines whether the development of an externality model improves the quality of the estimation. Third, it investigates whether the institutional and cultural types of proximity make sense compared to the geographical one.Chapter 3 narrows the analysis of countries’ dependency with regard to their neighborhood, whether geographical, institutional or religious, and a quintile regression approach allows us to check whether the countries' wealth level matters. Do the poorest countries react in the same way as richer ones regarding the wealth of their geographical, institutional and religious neighbors? The gross impact of neighboring wealth on a country’s wealth is then estimated, and some relative effects of the three matrices combined are also shown, as well as the robustness of the estimates.Finally, Chapter 4 analyzes the dependence of poverty regarding neighborhood. The relative wealth and poverty of the neighborhood are examined as factors that can influence a country’s poverty level. The poverty index used is the proportion of people living on less than one or two dollars a day. The study only considers the developing countries as data for the developed countries on the proportion of this variable is near zero. Once again, the final aim is to check whether a country’s poverty is exacerbated by its geographical, institutional and religious neighborhood poverty or if it takes advantage of neighborhood wealth to manage its own poverty issues., Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion, info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The relationships among exports, imports and economic growth in developed and developing countries have been of continuing interest both in theoretical and empirical literature. A large number of empirical studies have been conducted during the last two decades to investigate the role of exports on economic growth or the export-led growth hypothesis using either time-series or cross-section data, other studies have been conducted whether or not imports hinder or help economic growth. The objective of this paper is to investigate the casual relationship for four developed market economies (United States of America, Japan, Ireland and Singapore) and for four developing market economies (Malaysia, Pakistan, Argentina and Indonesia) based on causality tests. There is an ongoing debate on whether increased trade spurs growth and industrialization, or whether it is economic growth that enables trade to increase. The implicit question with respect to developing and developed countries is whether the major sources of growth and industrialization are external (learning through trade generally or exports or imports specifically) or internal (through human and physical capital investment and increased research and development).

The dissertation presents a system dynamics model for national industrial development in developing economies. A development system is defined by national boundary, components and activities. The system is represented by ten activity sectors grouped into three functional classes: (1) Two driving sectors comprising population and investment capital sectors; (2) Seven industrial sectors: resources, manufacturing, agriculture, physical infrastructure, services, technology, and social infrastructure; and (3) An outlet sector represented by a trade sector. The model's general theory of industrial development dynamics is described by causal feedback loops. A causal feedback loop consists of two or more interrelated variables where a change in one of the loop's variables causes all others to change as well. The industrial development model's specific structure evolved by applying the causal feedback theory to the system activity sectors. The model is written in DYNAMO, a continuous system, computer simulation language. A prototype model run illustrated the basic development process and possible effects of alternative policies. Several conclusions were drawn regarding sensitive system parameters and various development policies. In addition, three developing-country examples representing low, middle, and high income groups were evaluated. Recommendations about model use and system analysis were presented. The industrial development model is intended to aid during development analysis and planning phases. Ph. D.

Cover title, At head of title: Economic Dynamic, "July 1961.", "L2-1162"--handwritten on cover, Includes bibliographical references

Rev, "C/61-27 (revision of C/60-1). India Project"--leaf [1], "L2 1180"--handwritten on cover, Knopt. mimeogr

Caption title, "Economic Development Program, India Project.", "L2-703"--handwritten on cover

Caption title, At head of title, "Draft.", "1631"--handwritten on leaf [1]

Rev, Cover title, "India Project. Revision of C/60-15.", "1179"--handwritten on cover, Includes bibliographical references

The paper presents a method for the parallel optimization of the structure of sown areas for calculating economic and mathematical models for the traditional and organic-oriented land use systems characterized by the introduction of an additional set of environmental criteria constraints. Based on the proposed methodology, an economic-mathematical model has been calculated and the effectiveness of the functioning of the Altai Foothills zonal agroecocluster has been proved. Considering the full involvement in the agricultural production turnover of land suitable to produce organic products, the level of profitability was 39.7% against 17.3% in case of optimizing the structure of the sown areas in the traditional system of agricultural production., peer-reviewed