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This paper examines supplier encroachment in a scenario where the supplier procures an input in spot and processes it into a final product, while the retailer chooses between contingent and committed pricing schemes for the contract price. We find that when the correlation between the input spot price and final product demand is relatively small, it is optimal for the retailer to adopt the contingent pricing scheme regardless of the supplier's encroachment decision. This is because this scheme enables the supplier to share the input price risk, resulting in a lower contract price. Furthermore, the likelihood of the retailer adopting the contingent pricing scheme increases as demand variability decreases or spot price volatility increases. However, supplier encroachment reduces the retailer's inclination to use the contingent pricing scheme. We further demonstrate that the supplier should encroach when the correlation is sufficiently small, because encroachment alleviates double marginalisation in the retail channel and brings the additional responsiveness in the direct channel. By contrast, a large correlation compels the supplier to encroach even with a sufficiently small market size. In this case, encroachment improves the responsiveness of both retail and direct selling quantities and enables the quantities to match the demand better. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hybrid manufacturing systems utilising raw materials and returned end-of-life products for production are studied. The systems are failure-prone and subject to inventory, market demand and return uncertainties. Thanks to growing environmental and sustainability concerns, the manufacturing sector is currently experiencing a significant growth in the popularity of reverse logistics. However, the practical implementation of production control in such systems is challenging due to return flow uncertainty and variability. To address this challenge, an estimation-based control using the Kalman filter is proposed in this research. The demand and return models employed contain random and deterministic components, with the latter being time-invariant for demand and uncertain with seasonal variations for return. The processing steps used include the estimation of inventory levels and demand and return components, return forecasting allowing cost computation over a long horizon, and the determination of the production and disposal policies adapting to market variations and uncertainties. We classify the systems according to relationships between their production capacity, demand and return ranges. We then present an extensive numerical study of optimal policies for various system classes and show that adaptive policies outperform the conventional ones, thus proving the effectiveness of the proposed production control approach for complex industrially oriented systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supply chains are widely studied as carriers of value, but their potential to create value remains underappreciated. This study conceptualizes supply chain orchestration as a business model that allows a firm to create value in a supply chain with high market uncertainty by matching demand and supply more effectively than the present norm, and without relying on product innovation. Building on contingency theory, this study theorizes supply chain orchestration and articulates three defining qualities of its activity system. Next, it describes the evolution of this business model: its creation requires architectural market knowledge; however, sustained belief in the architectural market knowledge, ironically, can hinder its adaptation to changes in the firm's environment and lead to its abandonment. The study, I hope, will promote management practice and research at the largely untapped intersection of business models and strategic supply chain management to foster novel value creation by orchestrating supply chains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) may pose a risk or provide an opportunity for corporations. This study empirically investigates the impact of EPU on the corporate innovation of Chinese firms using patent information as a proxy for corporate innovation. The study then examines whether family ownership and political connections impede/boost corporate innovation. Using a longitudinal panel dataset of 3,085 Chinese firms listed during the period from 2009 to 2020, the study observes that EPU enhances corporate innovation in China. The study also finds that family firms negatively impact innovative projects during EPU. The study then shows that political connections positively moderate the effects of EPU on corporate innovation. The results of the study are robust to time and industry fixed effects, endogeneity issues, and firm-level time-varying factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The COVID-19 pandemic brought with it significant social, economic and health uncertainties. These were proposed to impact young people more compared to adults, leading adolescents to report more mental health problems during the pandemic. The current study examined whether differences in cognitive risk (tolerance of uncertainty) and protective (psychological flexibility) factors accounted for age-related differences in depression and anxiety. Methods: These associations were investigated in the COVID-19 Risks Across the Lifespan (CORAL) cohort (N = 2280, 11–89 years). Results: The results showed that adolescents experienced greater intolerance of uncertainty and lower psychological flexibility compared to adults and older adults. Tolerance of uncertainty did not account for age-related differences in depression or anxiety. However, psychological flexibility conferred more protective advantage for anxiety in adults compared to adolescents. Conclusion: The observed age-related differences in risk and protective factors advance our understanding of developmental vulnerabilities to depression and anxiety. Implications for mental health interventions in the context of future pandemics are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This research aims to investigate the role of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the outward FDI (OFDI) of the United Kingdom (UK) by considering the institutional quality (IQ) and globalization level of the host country as contextual factors. Design/methodology/approach: The UK's OFDI to its twenty partners is analyzed by using the factor augmented model for the 2005-2019 period. Findings: The results show that the EPU of the host country has a negative and significant effect on the UK's OFDI. Furthermore, the findings surprisingly illustrate that the globalization level of the host country has a negative and significant impact on the UK's OFDI. In terms of IQ, this study indicates that, while government effectiveness and regulatory quality have a negative and significant influence on the UK's OFDI, the rule of law has a positive and significant effect on the UK's OFDI. Originality/value: This will be one of a few studies considering OFDI in the scope of EPU. Also, the contradicting results of the study add unique perspectives to the literature about the relationship between OFDI, globalization, and IQ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has a significant effect on firm decisions, especially corporate environmental, social and governance (ESG) disclosure. This research examines the impact of EPU on corporate ESG disclosure, and tests whether this effect can be influenced by financing constraints and internal control using a sample of A-share listed firms in China from 2011 to 2019. The empirical results show that EPU positively affects corporate ESG disclosure. The positive impact of EPU on ESG disclosure is stronger at higher levels of financing constraints and internal control. The heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the positive effect of EPU on corporate ESG disclosure is more significant in state-owned enterprises, heavily polluting firms and those with a higher degree of marketization and industry competition. In times of rising EPU, firms will actively disclose ESG information to mitigate business management risks and reduce negative economic benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Despite the growing interest in enhancing mass customization capability (MCC), firms still have little knowledge of dealing with the superimposed challenges of increased market uncertainty and supply chain disruptions. Based on the dynamic capability view, this study focuses on the impacts of frequent sensing and reconfiguring processes on MCC and the mediating roles of proactive and reactive supply chain resilience (SCR). Design/methodology/approach: We collected survey data from 277 manufacturing firms and conducted a structural equation model to test hypotheses. Findings: The results reveal that although its direct effect on MCC is insignificant, sensing process improves MCC indirectly via reactive SCR. Our findings also show that reconfiguring process enhances MCC both directly and indirectly via reactive SCR. Originality/value: This study provides theoretical and practical insights into how to combine dynamic capability and SCR to strengthen MCC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the US economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index developed by Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. [2016. Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636. ], we examine the impact of policy uncertainty on firms' non-GAAP reporting practices. We show that EPU increases both the likelihood and quality of non-GAAP earnings disclosures. These effects are more pronounced for firms with higher index ownership and for those with less informative GAAP earnings. Furthermore, we show that non-GAAP disclosures provide tangible economic benefit during periods of increasing EPU, including compensating for the reduced informativeness of GAAP earnings and reducing information asymmetry. Overall, our evidence suggests that non-GAAP reporting is a means by which managers communicate value-relevant information about their firms' performance to investors during periods of high EPU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Government regulations on emission control can be broadly divided into two categories: price instruments and quantity instruments. In this paper, we develop a stylized model to compare the two instruments in the presence of market uncertainty. We find that when the emission intensity (i.e., emissions per unit of production) and the market uncertainty are both high or low, the expected social welfare under the price instruments will be higher; otherwise, the performance of the quantity instruments is comparatively better. The results are robust when incorporating firm competition and national/regional pollution damage. Afterward, we demonstrate that the government's quick‐response capability or a hybrid of the price and quantity instruments can improve the expected social welfare, especially for high‐emitting industries when the market uncertainty is intermediate. Lastly, for heterogeneous firms, we find that allowing permit trading in the quantity instrument may not be beneficial when pollution from each firm is more likely to have regional effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks on Indian equity market sectors. The effect of domestic (Indian) and foreign (USA) EPU shocks is examined on ten major Bombay Stock Exchange sectors. Design/methodology/approach: The study uses data covering the period from September 2005 to July 2023 and uses the methodology of quantile regression to investigate the heterogenous response of stock market sectors under diverse market conditions explained through the analysis of conditional quantiles distribution. Findings: The results demonstrate that domestic and foreign EPU shocks negatively affect most of the sectors in bearish market conditions. Industrials, commodities, utilities, consumer discretionary and financial services are the most affected sectors by domestic EPU. However, the information technology sector is found to be immune to domestic EPU shocks but negatively affected by foreign EPU shocks. On the other hand, energy, financial services and fast-moving consumer goods sectors are found to be immune to foreign EPU shocks but are negatively affected by domestic EPU shocks. Practical implications: Understanding the heterogeneous response of different sectors to EPU shocks could help investors and portfolio managers identify portfolio diversification opportunities. Originality/value: This study makes an inaugural attempt to examine the responses of Indian stock market sectors to domestic and foreign EPU shocks using the approach of quantile regression and unveils the previously unexamined diverse reactions of Indian stock market sectors to EPU shocks originating from both India and USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With economic globalization and the financialization of agricultural products continuing to advance, the interconnections between different agricultural futures have become closer. We utilize a TVP‐VAR‐DY model combined with the quantile method to measure the risk spillover between 11 agricultural futures in the United States and China from July 9, 2014, to December 31, 2022. We obtain several findings. First, CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat are identified as the primary risk transmitters, with DCE corn and soybean as the main risk receivers. Second, sudden events or increased economic uncertainty can enlarge the overall risk spillovers. Third, there is an aggregation of risk spillovers amongst agricultural futures based on the dynamic directional spillovers. Lastly, the central agricultural futures under the conditional mean are CBOT corn and soybean, while CZCE hard wheat and long‐grained rice are the two risk‐spillover centers in extreme cases, as per the results of the spillover network and minimum spanning tree. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and corporate cash holdings using data from seven emerging countries for the 2010–2018 period. Empirical results show that firms tend to hold more cash when EPU is high. Moreover, this positive relationship is stronger in countries with better control of corruption and in high uncertainty avoidance cultures. Results are robust to different measures of cash holdings and EPU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, this study analyzes how inbound tourist arrivals (TOUR) respond to EPU in Australia. Empirical results show that EPU can Granger cause TOUR in most cases before COVID-19, whereas little evidence supports this finding after the pandemic. At the national level, it is found that EPU was the net risk transmitter before COVID-19 but became the net risk receiver after COVID-19, while TOUR was the net risk receiver over March 2007-March 2020 but became the net risk transmitter in the remaining months. The impulse response functions reflect that a 2.81% decline in the total TOUR was observed due to a 1% increase in EPU, which gradually decayed within 9 months for the sub-sample before COVID-19. Similar findings hold at the state/territory level. These findings provide profound evidence for the national and state/territory governments to allocate tourism resources and formulate supportive tourism policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term load forecasting (LTLF) is crucial for reliable electricity supply, infrastructure planning, and informed energy policies, ensuring grid stability and efficient resource allocation. Traditional methods, like statistical models and expert judgment, rely on historical data but may struggle with dynamic changes in technology, regulations, and consumer behavior. Addressing challenges such as economic uncertainties, seasonal variations, data quality, and integrating renewable energy requires advanced forecasting models and adaptive strategies. This research aims to develop an efficient LTLF model for the Coimbatore region in Tamil Nadu, India, using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. While LSTM has limitations in capturing longterm dependencies and requires high data quality and complex management, optimizing hyperparameters, including through the opposition-based hunterprey optimization (OHPO) technique, is explored to enhance its predictive performance. The results show that the proposed OHPO-configured LSTM model for LTLF achieves superior performance compared to other techniques, with a mean square error (MSE) of 0.25, root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.5 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.27. This research underscores the significance of improving LTLF precision for informed decision-making in infrastructure planning and energy policy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to examine the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and environmental, social and governance (ESG) disclosure and the moderating role of board network centrality and political connections on the nexus between EPU and ESG. Design/methodology/approach: Using a sample of the UK Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 350 firms during 2007 to 2018, this study examines the relationship between EPU and the ESG disclosure and the moderating effects of board centrality and board political connections using multivariate regression analysis. Findings: The results show that firms tend to increase their ESG disclosure when EPU rises. The results also reveal that EPU is negatively associated with firms' financial performance and ESG performance is less evident for firms with higher ESG disclosure scores and is observed only when board centrality is relatively low and the political connections are absent. The study finds further evidence to support the hypotheses during periods of heightened conflicts (i.e. global financial crisis and the Brexit referendum). Practical implications: This study offers practical insights for corporate managers who attempt to preserve and enhance their firms' competitive advantages via maintaining its stakeholders support through greater ESG disclosure during heightened EPU periods. Originality/value: By integrating the resource-based view (RBV) and the signaling theory, this study extends the signaling theory and RBV by examining the relationship between EPU and ESG disclosure as a signal to its stakeholders and information advantages that board centrality and political connections bring to the company to reduce information asymmetry between the firms and its stakeholders during EPU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore networked business models on a nascent market for a sustainable innovation. Design/methodology/approach: The study takes a qualitative approach through a comparative case study of three solar photovoltaic (PV) parks in Sweden. Data was collected from 14 interviews with multiple supply chain and network actors as well as secondary data. Industrial marketing and purchasing is applied for theoretical framing. Findings: The study demonstrates transactional, relational, environmental and social drivers for participating in the network. The study reveals the duplicity of the nascent market, which encourages supply chain actors to develop their individual business models to take a larger market share or become future competitors to current collaborators. On the nascent market with few developed regulations, the network enables actors to influence regulations on local and regional levels. Research limitations/implications: The study is limited to the nascent solar PV industry in Sweden, which is characterized by institutional turbulence, market uncertainties and few established supply networks. Practical implications: Practitioners need to consider multifarious drivers for participating in networked business models, where the economic driver may be the least motivating. Originality/value: This study provides several multiactor business models and classifies them into specific applications and general applications. The study provides unique insight into the complexity of interactions among supply chain actors in networked business models on a nascent market for sustainable innovation. Due to the scarcity of available partners on the nascent market, actors need to look beyond their on-going relationships and their network horizon, or actors' roles evolve to include activities that was not part of their individual business models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigate the link between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and manager sentiment. Analysing a comprehensive dataset of Chinese non-financial listed firms spanning from 2007 to 2021, the findings indicate a negative relationship between EPU and manager sentiment expressed in annual reports. Additionally, we observed a significant reduction in manager sentiment bias in the presence of high EPU. The impact of EPU on manager sentiment is moderated by firms benefiting from government industrial policy and those exhibiting stronger risk-taking capability, as the negative effect is less pronounced in these cases. Our channel analysis reveals that EPU diminishes manager sentiment by impairing operating performance and capital market performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of news-based economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on domestic credit in the United Kingdom and the United States from 1900 to 2020. The Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model results show that the EPU significantly decreases domestic credit both in the United Kingdom and the United States. Further results from the Volatility Spillover model indicate robust evidence of the negative impact of the EPU on domestic credit demand. The high spillover effect comes from the high EPU, which is associated with low domestic credit, and the low EPU is associated with increased domestic credit. The results are robust in different model procedures. The results indicate that consumers decrease durable consumption, and firms follow a wait-and-see strategy during times of higher EPU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThis study examines the effect of economic uncertainty on the probability of access to finance for the years between 2015 and 2020. Survey on Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) dataset is used for measuring the level of access to finance and The IMF World Uncertainty Index (WUI) is considered as a proxy for uncertainty. According to probit regression model results, the uncertainty negatively affects the probability of firms’ access to bank loans while positively affecting the likelihood of access to trade credit. The results also reveal that some firm-level and macroeconomic indicators significantly impact access to finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study empirically examines the impact of firm digital transformation (DT) on the performance of Chinese-listed enterprises in the areas of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) from 2013 to 2022. We utilized OLS, IV 2SLS causal mediating effect, and moderating effect models to analyze the linkages and deep mechanisms between corporate DT and ESG performance. The empirical findings demonstrate that (i) DT has an effectively positive effect on the performance of firms' ESG; (ii) DT enhances firms' ESG performance by enhancing information transparency (TRANS), fostering green innovation (Green), and strengthening internal control (Inter) mechanisms; moreover, (iii) According to the study, common institutional ownership (CIO) effectively facilitates the positive effects of the DT impact on the ESG performance of listed enterprises, and firms' subjective perception of economic policy uncertainty (SEPU) negatively influences the effect of digital change on firms' ESG performance; (iv) the impact of DT on ESG performance is more significant in the listed companies of western region and state-owned enterprises. Our findings provide valuable insights into whether and how DT affects the firms' ESG performance, providing practical recommendations for corporate managers and government decision-making agencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, spectral Granger causality analysis is employed to investigate the spectral dynamics of uncertainty transmission and its impact on economic growth and financial development in Saudi Arabia from 1993 to 2020. We examine the relationships between crude oil volatility, geopolitical risk, global economic uncertainty, financial development (measured by market capitalisation, MCGDP, Financial Institutions Access Index, FIAIX) and economic growth. The empirical results show that negative shocks in crude oil volatility have a significant impact on financial development as measured by the MCGDP, with capital flight and reduced domestic investment playing key roles, despite the effective contribution of increased government spending to mitigate these effects. In this study, spectral Granger causality analysis is employed to investigate the spectral dynamics of uncertainty transmission and its impact on economic growth and financial development in Saudi Arabia from 1993 to 2020. We examine the relationships between crude oil volatility, geopolitical risk, global economic uncertainty, financial development (measured by market capitalisation, MCGDP, Financial Institutions Access Index, FIAIX) and economic growth. The empirical results show that negative shocks in crude oil volatility have a significant impact on financial development as measured by MCGDP, with capital flight and lower domestic investment playing a key role, despite the effective contribution of increased government spending in mitigating these effects. However, looking at the FIAIX, crude oil volatility has a different impact, with positive shocks having no significant impact on financial development. In contrast, negative shocks show long-term causal effects, which emphasises the vulnerability of the banking sector to oil price fluctuations. Geopolitical risk has a significant long-term impact on the MCGDP due to uncertainty shocks caused by regional and global geopolitical measures. For geopolitical risk, the results are mixed with a significant causality of negative shocks on the FIAIX over certain frequencies, emphasising the sensitivity of the banking sector to geopolitical tensions. In contrast, the world economic uncertainty has only a limited direct impact on the FIAIX, indicating the resilience of the Saudi financial sector to fluctuations in global uncertainty. In terms of economic growth, positive shocks have a greater impact than negative shocks due to the volatility of crude oil. However, shocks resulting from geopolitical risks, whether positive or negative, have little effect on economic growth. The industrial production index, a measure of the resilience of the Saudi economy, indicates that it is susceptible to positive shocks from fluctuations in oil prices over a range of time periods. Our study's findings can assist Saudi Arabia's authorities in fortifying the country's financial and economic resilience against the spread of uncertainty. For strong financial development and sustainable economic growth, these uncertainty elements must be well monitored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to analyze the correlations and information flow between a local Sharia-compliant index and global Sharia-compliant indices using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models, shedding light on the integration of international and national Sharia-compliant markets. Given recent market conditions and uncertainties at both local and global levels, the research investigates the predictive power of ANNs and examines the relationship between the Dubai Financial Market Sharia Index (DFMSI) and three well-known global Islamic indices: the Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index, the Standard and Poor's Global Sharia Index, and the Financial Times Stock Exchange Sharia All World Index. By incorporating data from multiple global Sharia indices, the study expands data sources beyond the local market, providing a comprehensive analysis of factors influencing the DFMSI's price. This approach reduces reliance on a single dataset and strengthens the robustness of the research findings. Additionally, the inclusion of the three global Sharia indices offers benefits such as access to global market insights, risk management, and practical applications for investors. The study demonstrates that ANNs, particularly the Nonlinear Autoregressive with External Input Neural Network (NARX), outperform classical models in accurately predicting the DFMSI. This research contributes significantly to the understanding of Sharia-compliant investments by providing a comprehensive analysis of how multiple global indices affect a local market index. It also offers valuable insights for investors and portfolio managers, suggesting that the integration of advanced machine learning models can enhance decision-making processes and improve risk management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research analyzes the return spill-over of green bonds issued among several categories of countries and relation of its return spill-over to various global economic conditions. The research employs a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) methodol-ogy to account for the return spill-over among countries, and wavelet coherence analysis (WCA) for relation between return spill-over and global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) index. This study utilizes yield data from green bonds issued from January 2014 to February 2024. This period chosen based on the commencement of green bond issuance in several Emerging Market (EM), Frontier Market (FM) and Least Developed Market (LDM). The findings of this research is the green bonds issued from Developed Market (DM) gives bigger return spill-over effect to the green bonds issued from EM, rather than to FM and to LDM. This spill-over effect from DM to EM raises due to the high GEPU Index, which means the more uncertain the global economics policy, investor rather to safe in stable financial instrument such as green bonds issued in DM and EM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This empirical analysis aims to probe the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on green growth (GG) in China. In order to achieve this, we make use of time series data from 1990 to 2020. We adopt the novel wavelet quantile correlation (WQC) approach to report time‐varying results across quantiles. The key findings from the novel WQC approach delineate that EPU and GPR impede GG in the short‐ and long‐run, whereas, EPU and GPR promote GG in the medium‐run. Regarding the policy recommendations, we suggest to impede both EPU and GPR to upsurge long‐run GG in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the reliability of smart home energy management systems (SHEMSs) in a residential community with an unreliable power grid and power shortages. Unlike the previous works, which mainly focused on cost analysis, this research assesses the reliability of SHEMSs for different backup power sources, including photovoltaic systems (PVs), battery storage systems (BSSs), electric vehicles (EVs), and diesel generators (DGs). The impact of these changes on the daily cost and the balance of energy source contribution in providing electrical energy to household loads, particularly during power outage hours, is also evaluated. To address the uncertainty of electricity market prices, a risk management approach based on conditional value at risk is applied. Additionally, the study highlights the impact of community size on energy costs and reliability. The proposed model is formulated as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming problem and is solved using GAMS. The effectiveness of the proposed risk-based optimization approach is demonstrated through comprehensive cost and reliability analysis. The results reveal that when electric vehicles are used as backup power sources, the energy index of reliability (EIR) is not affected by market price variations and shows significant improvement, reaching approximately 99.9% across all scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines policy uncertainty on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in South Africa, emphasising the extensive regulatory review by the Competition Commission under the 'public interest consideration' criterion. It aims to identify the cost implications and uncertainties associated with M&A transactions to propose measures to reduce these uncertainties. Utilising qualitative methodologies, the study gathers empirical evidence through interviews with companies and competition lawyers involved in the M&A processes. The findings reveal significant concerns about economic uncertainty, merger control, and policy and regulation impacting investment decisions. Policy uncertainty, particularly in the context of merger regulation, imposes substantial cost implications and delays on M&A activities, negatively affecting investment, growth, and economic development. It emphasises the necessity for a regulatory framework that minimises disruptions and costs to business participants. The findings suggest that addressing policy uncertainty and streamlining regulatory processes are crucial steps towards enhancing South Africa's attractiveness as an investment destination and fostering economic growth and development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering the Italian automotive supply chain, this work investigates the relation between investments in R&D and financial constraints, unpacking the expected uncertainties in the innovation process, and highlighting the most relevant factors that might prevent access to external financial resources. We use new information from a survey presented to a sample of firms between 2018 and 2021, adopting a logistic regression model and several robustness checks to test the proposed hypotheses. Based on our results, we identify two relevant scenarios characterised by the presence of market and regulatory uncertainty (first scenario), and financial uncertainty (second scenario). We estimate that the odds of being under financial constraints are 4.02 times in the former scenario, while they are 10.13 times in the latter scenario. Policy implications concern the opportunity to work on the key elements of these scenarios to facilitate the financing of R&D investments and innovation, which might well be fundamental to achieve the targets set by the Paris Agreement on climate change. Managerial practical implications concern the identification of the essential conditions necessary in R&D proposals to collect financial resources on the capital market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of economic policy uncertainty on local government debt issuance in China and identifies a transmission channel through the cost of capital. Our findings demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty raises the cost of external financing for local governments, leading to decreased levels of debt issuance. Specifically, a 1% increase in uncertainty related to economic policy variations leads to a reduction in government debt issuance of 0.0478%. In addition, our analysis reveals that local governments located in regions experiencing lower fiscal pressure, lower economic catch‐up pressure, and higher sensitivity to uncertainty are more responsive to economic policy uncertainty changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study a model for portfolio selection under uncertainty along with market equilibria that are associated with the optimal positions. Allowing for both ambiguity-seeking and ambiguity-averse market participants, model-implied demand functions resemble observed bid–ask spreads, and are consistent with extant limited-participation results based on more specialized ambiguity settings. A Pareto-efficient second-best equilibrium arises from constraining the portfolio allocations of ambiguity seekers. It implies that heterogeneity in ambiguity preferences is sufficient for mutually beneficial transactions even among all else homogeneous traders. Our results reconcile many observed phenomena in liquid high-information financial markets, such as portfolio inertia and negative risk premia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to theoretically hypothesize and empirically examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on firms' innovation performance as well as the contingency conditions of this relationship. Design/methodology/approach: This study collects and combines secondary longitudinal data from multiple sources to test for a direct impact of EPU on firms' innovation performance. It further examines the moderating effects of firms' operational and marketing capabilities. A series of robustness checks are performed to ensure the consistency of the findings. Findings: In contrast to the common belief that EPU reduces the innovativeness of firms, the authors find an inverted-U relationship between EPU and innovation performance, indicating that a moderate level of EPU actually promotes innovation. Further analysis suggests that firms' operational and marketing capabilities make the inverted-U relationship steeper, further enhancing firms' innovation performance at a moderate level of EPU. Originality/value: This study adds to the emerging literature that investigates the operational implications of EPU, which enhances our understanding of the potential bright side of EPU and broadens the scope of operational risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the Macau hotel industry's response to global shocks using vector autoregression analysis. According to the findings, the hotel occupancy rate reacts negatively to a one-standard-deviation shock in global geopolitical risk. However, this reaction decreases after the second period and completely loses its effect after the fourth period. Hotel occupancy rate responds weakly and short term negatively to the shock of global economic policy uncertainty. The hotel industry reacts short term, weakly, and positively to a shock in US monetary policy uncertainty. According to the variance decomposition results, at the end of the tenth term (long-term), 96.25% of the change in hotel occupancy rates is explained by their own dynamics. The rest is 3.00% geopolitical risk, 0.5% US monetary policy uncertainty, and 0.25% economic policy uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting tourism demand is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders in the tourism industry, enabling them to enhance promotional strategies, optimize marketing efforts, align investments, and achieve operational efficiency. While existing research has highlighted the negative impact of global risk factors such as geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainty, and climate changes on tourism demand, the specific influence of climate policy changes and their differential impact on tourist arrivals has been less explored. Addressing this gap, our study employs bivariate, multiple, and partial wavelet methods to analyze the differential impact of climate policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on tourism arrivals in the United States. Utilizing recent monthly data from January 1996 to August 2022, we uncover significant time-frequency varying dependencies between these factors and tourism demand. Our causality analysis reveals that both geopolitical risk and climate policy uncertainty are key determinants of tourism demand in the U.S. Furthermore, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model corroborates the findings of the wavelet analysis, highlighting asymmetrical interactions in the long run. These findings offer valuable insights and have significant implications for policymakers and industry stakeholders, suggesting the need for adaptive and responsive tourism strategies that consider the evolving landscape of geopolitical and climate policy uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the short- and medium-run dependence structures across carbon emissions prices, commodity futures, equity prices, and geopolitical uncertainty in the case of the BRICS countries. Previous studies have focused on the co-movement between commodity futures and equity prices, with a few attempts at capturing the economic uncertainty in that relationship but failed to look at the broader context of both emission prices and geopolitical uncertainty. This study employs the spillover index developed by Diebold and Yilmaz and data spaning from January 3, 2008, to October 31, 2021 to identify the dependence structure across ETS, commodity futures, equity prices, and geopolitical uncertainty (GPR). Our key findings suggest that the contribution of the MOEX Russia Index to the natural gas prices return is the highest. As the ETS is concerned, the GPR of China plays the most crucial role compared to other BRICS countries. Comparing energy commodities (e.g. ETS and natural gas), the net pairwise spillover effects of oil to metal commodities are more evident. Among the GPRs of BRICS countries, China, India, Russia, and Brazil have a positive net pairwise directional connectedness transmitted to South Africa. For stakholders working in commodity trading, the insights obtained from this research is essential for developing strategies that lessen the effects of geopolitical risks and help in promoting more resilient and stable commodity markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) impacts the syndication behaviors of venture capital firms (VCs). Analyzing data from China, we find that EPU boosts the likelihood that VCs take syndicated investments. When facing great EPU, compared with their domestic and private counterparts, foreign and state-backed VCs exhibit a greater propensity for syndication, particularly in collaboration with VCs from distinct capital backgrounds. Further, EPU reduces VCs' risk-taking tendencies and exacerbates inadequate information exchange in the market, thereby making VCs more inclined to syndicate their investments. Finally, EPU adversely affects VCs' exit performance, but syndication helps alleviate this impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy resources possess unique characteristics—intermittency and uncertainty—that pose challenges to electricity grid operations. We study these characteristics and find that uncertainty, represented by wind forecast error, has larger grid impacts than intermittency, represented by hourly wind generation changes. Compared to wind generation that was correctly forecast, uncertainty yields roughly double the effect on the marginal cost of operating the grid and greater adjustment costs as conventional generators must start up to balance the grid. While this finding is important given the persistence of wind generation uncertainty over our study period, reducing wind forecast error to the level of demand forecast error would lower costs by a modest half a million dollars per year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we use data from the 'Families and Social Subjects' survey conducted by the Italian National Institute of Statistics in 2016 to study the impact of micro- and macro-level economic conditions on first co-residential union formation. We aim to determine if and to what extent the probability of forming the first union is explained by individual labour market positions (e.g. having non-standard employment or not having work), and additionally explore if adverse macroeconomic conditions also play a role. We differentiate by union type—marriage and cohabitation—known to be characterised by different levels of union commitment. We also address potential gender differences by conducting separate analyses on men and women. Our results suggest that while micro- and macro-level economic factors matter in the union formation process, their effect varies by gender and union type. Individual economic vulnerability has a greater impact on marriage than on cohabitation for both men and women. Instead, contextual economic uncertainty plays a relevant role, especially in the transition to cohabitation, regardless of gender, and, to a lesser extent, in the transition to marriage, but only for women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing studies on commodity market risk spillovers recognize the pivotal role of geopolitical risk (GPR), but scarcely address how it drives tail risk spillover networks. This study adopts the Tail‐Event driven NETwork methodology to explore high‐dimensional Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR) spillovers within energy and other strategic commodity markets. Our findings indicate that (1) In both lower and upper tail networks, metal and food commodities primarily act as net risk transmitters, whereas energy commodities are mainly net risk receivers. Additionally, these roles undergo short‐term reversals during periods of heightened market uncertainty. (2) There exists an asymmetrical pattern of CoVaR co‐movements in these commodity markets. The total connectedness (TC) in both the upper and lower tails demonstrates distinct responses to various extreme events. GPR tends to weaken the lower tail TC and strengthen the upper tail. (3) Incorporating GPR substantially improves the effectiveness of Minimum Connectedness Portfolio (MCoP) for these strategic commodities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic policy uncertainty significantly influences governmental decisions regarding environmental sustainability, particularly in CO2 emissions reduction efforts. This study examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on environmental inefficiency across 136 emergent and non‐emerging countries from 1990 to 2018, using an unbalanced and heterogeneous sample. Additionally, we explore the moderating effects of institutional quality and political orientation on this relationship. Employing a directional distance function in a parametric context, our analysis reveals that economic policy uncertainty exacerbates environmental inefficiency. However, we find that institutional quality and political orientation act as important moderating factors, fostering greater environmental sustainability. Sensitivity analyses support these empirical findings, providing insights into potential implications for economic policy and guiding regulatory and policymaking efforts toward achieving enhanced environmental sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: We investigated the association of COVID-19 indicators and economic uncertainty indices on payment-based system cryptocurrency (i.e. Bitcoin, Ripple and Dogecoin) returns. Design/methodology/approach: We used an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for panel data and performed robustness checks by utilizing a random effect model (REM) and generalized method of moments (GMM). There are 25 most adopted cryptocurrency's countries and the data spans from 22 March 2021 to 6 May 2022. Findings: This research discovered four findings: (1) the index of COVID-19 vaccine confidence (VCI) recovers the economic and Bitcoin has become more attractive, causing investors to shift their investment from Dogecoin to Bitcoin. However, the VCI was revealed to be insignificant to Ripple; (2) during uncertain times, Bitcoin could perform as a diversifier, while Ripple could behave as a diversifier, safe haven or hedge. Meanwhile, the movement of Dogecoin prices tended to be influenced by public figures' actions; (3) public opinion on Twitter and government policy changes regarding COVID-19 and economy had a crucial role in investment decision making; and (4) the COVID-19 variants revealed insignificant results to payment-based system cryptocurrency returns. Originality/value: This study contributed to verifying the vaccine confidence index effect on payment-based system cryptocurrency returns. Also, we further investigated the uncertainty indicators impacting on cryptocurrency returns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Lastly, we utilized the COVID-19 variants as a cryptocurrency returns' new determinant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Our aim in this study is to investigate the relative importance of the economic policy uncertainty and of the geopolitical risk on U.S. REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) returns with a special focus on the different real estate sectors. Design/methodology/approach: We use an augmented Fama-French (1993)'s asset pricing model, including economic policy uncertainty indices (EPU), introduced by Baker et al. (2016), and geopolitical risk indices (GPR) recently developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022), to price the potential risk factors for U.S. Nareit indices returns. To obtain robust economic results, we correct for the problems of errors-in-variables in linear asset pricing models; we advocate the use of higher moments estimators as instruments in a generalized method of moments (GMM) framework. Findings: Our results report that economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and geopolitical risk (GPR) are priced for the different Nareit sectors for the last three decades. The GPR index stands as a relevant risk factor. The coefficient estimates are low compared to Fama-French risk factors. They are higher for Shopping Centers, Retail and Region Malls and lower for Health Care and Lodging/Resorts. EPU indices are also priced and less statistically significant. Health Care sector, followed by Shopping Centers and Retail are the most policy-sensitive sectors. Practical implications: In their "2023–2024 Top Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate" "political unrest and global economic health" is ranked 1 issue by the Counselors of Real Estate. Our results report that economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk are priced for the different Nareit sectors. They suggest implications for investors, insurers, bankers, policymakers and other stakeholders. The geopolitical risk index (GPR) stands as a relevant and significant risk factor for REITs returns. Originality/value: Based on parsimonious robust asset pricing models, the results shed a new light on the relative importance of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty in the real estate sector, with a special focus on the different U.S. REITs sectors. They suggest possible implications for investors, insurers, bankers, policymakers and other stakeholders in a context marked by higher uncertainty shocks and geopolitical risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), energy consumption (EC), sustainable technological innovation (STI), and quality of governance on green growth (GG). Besides, it examines the moderating effect of STI and governance quality on the association between EPU and GG. It applies a Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag estimator for 25 emerging economies for periods 1991–2019. For the robustness test, we utilize the asymptotic distribution of the Cross-section Augmented Distributed Lag to control for cross-sectional dependence concerns. We drive two indicators for GG by applying the principal component approach and directional distance function. The findings imply that STI and quality of governance have significant positive impacts on GG. However, EPU and EC adversely impact GG in emerging economies. Besides, quality of governance and STI positively moderate EPU's influence on GG, implying that countries with better quality of governance and promote STI mitigate the detrimental effects of high EPU on GG. Moreover, we run the causality analysis to investigate the causal relationship between target variables and GG. Policy suggestions are proposed based on the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to explore the intricate relationship between uncertainty indicators and volatility of commodity futures, with a specific focus on agriculture and energy sectors. Design/methodology/approach: The authors analyse the volatility of Indian agriculture and energy futures using the GARCH-MIDAS model, taking into account different types of uncertainty factors. The evaluation of out-sample predictive capability involves the application of out-sample R-squared test and computation of various loss functions. Findings: The research outcomes underscore the significant impact of diverse uncertainty factors such as domestic economic policy uncertainty (EPU), global EPU (GEPU), US EPU and geopolitical risk (GPR) on long-run volatility of Indian energy and agriculture (agri) futures. Additionally, the study demonstrates that GPR exhibits superior predictive capability for crude oil futures volatility, while domestic EPU stands out as an effective predictor for agri futures, particularly castor seed and guar gum. Practical implications: The study offers practical implications for market participants and policymakers to adopt a comprehensive perspective, incorporating diverse uncertainty factors, for informed decision-making and effective risk management in commodity markets. Originality/value: The research makes an inaugural attempt to examine the impact of domestic and global uncertainty indicators on modelling and predicting volatility in energy and agri futures. The distinctive feature of considering an emerging market also adds a novel dimension to the research landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on financial asset return spillovers and economic policy uncertainty spillovers in three continents (Europe, America, and Asia) in the last few decades. We examine three financial asset markets (stock, bond, and foreign exchange). Spillovers are measured using the Diebold–Yilmaz spillover index. In the first part, we measure the size of spillovers and find a significant increase in spillovers during the global financial crisis, the European sovereign crisis, and the recent pandemic. In the second part, we test for the effect of uncertainty spillovers on financial asset return spillovers. Using rolling impulse response functions, we obtain the following results: First, the responses of financial markets spillovers to uncertainty spillovers are time-varying and are mostly positive. Second, the highest responses in financial market return spillovers to uncertainty spillovers occur in America and the smallest responses in financial market return spillovers occur in Europe. Third, among the three financial markets, the highest responses apply to the foreign exchange market. Finally, the largest responses during the pandemic apply in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study uses time‐varying Granger causality models that incorporate two proxies for Twitter policy uncertainty and South African returns stock returns to investigate the causal relationship between Twitter uncertainty and South African stock returns for the period between 2017 and 2023. The findings demonstrate that Twitter Market Uncertainty and Twitter Economic Uncertainty mostly lead JSE returns around the start of the COVID‐19 pandemic and the Russia‐Ukranainan war respectively. The findings also show significant out‐of‐sample forecasts using uncertainty indexes from Twitter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThe post-pandemic economic uncertainty has profoundly affected the hotel sector, which was among the earliest casualties and continues to grapple with protracted recovery hurdles. This turmoil has taken a toll on the mental, emotional, and physical well-being of both current and former hotel workers, exacerbating employability issues in the broader tourism industry. This study, involving 36 participants (20 former hotel employees who left during the pandemic and 16 who remained employed), utilized interviews and thematic analysis to explore the role of Psychological Capital (PsyCap) components in the lives of these workers. The findings highlight the significance of enhancing employees’ PsyCap to bolster their mental well-being, enabling them to navigate adversities, particularly in the post-pandemic era. Moreover, the study emphasizes the role of Social Capital in reinforcing and sustaining employees’ PsyCap during crises, ultimately fostering organizational commitment. These results carry important implications for hotel organizations. To address pandemic-induced challenges, these entities should prioritize creating a supportive work environment that encourages employee retention during and beyond the pandemic. These measures can enhance organizational resilience and provide a competitive edge in addressing post-pandemic workforce challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is a major source of risk that could affect corporate environmental behaviors. We investigated the impact of EPU on environmental information disclosure by using 15,308 firm-year observations from 2,316 Chinese manufacturing firms between 2010 and 2020. Our study shows that EPU can be an incentive for firms to disclose environmental information. This finding supports the voluntary disclosure theory that firms are prone to disclose more environmental efforts in times of high EPU. Furthermore, the results show that the positive relationship between EPU and corporate environmental information disclosure can be positively moderated by media attention and financing constraints. Firms in competitive industries and heavily polluting industries provided better environmental information disclosure when facing uncertainty. Our results provide implications that managers should emphasize the quality of disclosure and use environmental information disclosure as a key strategy to deal with EPU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]