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The structure of forest stands is an important determinant of habitat use by songbirds, including species of conservation concern. In this paper, we investigate the combined long-term impacts of variable tree regeneration and timber management on stand structure, songbird occupancy probabilities, and timber production in northern hardwood forests. We develop species-specific relationships between bird species occupancy and forest stand structure for canopy-dependent black-throated green warbler (Dendroica virens), eastern wood-pewee (Contopus virens), least flycatcher (Empidonax minimus) and rose-breasted grosbeak (Pheucticus ludovicianus) from field data collected in northern hardwood forests of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. We integrate these bird-forest structure relationships with a forest simulation model that couples a forest-gap tree regeneration submodel developed from our field data with the US Forest Service Forest Vegetation Simulator (Ontario variant). Our bird occupancy models are better than null models for all species, and indicate species-specific responses to management-related forest structure variables. When simulated over a century, higher overall tree regeneration densities and greater proportions of commercially high value, deer browse-preferred, canopy tree Acer saccharum (sugar maple) than low-value, browse-avoided subcanopy tree Ostrya virginiana (ironwood) ensure conditions allowing larger harvests of merchantable timber and had greater impacts on bird occupancy probability change. Compared to full regeneration, no regeneration over 100 years reduces merchantable timber volumes by up to 25% and drives differences in bird occupancy probability change of up to 30%. We also find that harvest prescriptions can be tailored to affect both timber removal volumes and bird occupancy probability simultaneously, but only when regeneration is adequate. When regeneration is poor (e.g., 25% or less of trees succeed in regenerating), timber harvest prescriptions have a greater relative influence on bird species occupancy probabilities than on the volume of merchantable timber harvested. However, regeneration density and composition, particularly the density of Acer saccharum regenerating, have the greatest long-term effects on canopy bird occupancy probability. Our results imply that forest and wildlife managers need to work together to ensure tree regeneration density and composition are adequate for both timber production and the maintenance of habitat for avian species over the long-term. Where tree regeneration is currently poor (e.g., due to deer herbivory), forest and wildlife managers should pay particularly close attention to the long-term impacts of timber harvest prescriptions on bird species.

Complex spatial heterogeneity of ecological systems is difficult to capture and interpret using global models alone. For this reason, recent attention has been paid to local spatial modeling techniques. We used one local modeling approach, geographically weighted regression (GWR), to investigate the effects of local spatial heterogeneity on multivariate relationships of white-tailed deer distribution using land cover patch metrics and climate factors. The results of these analyses quantify differences in the contributions of model parameters to estimates of deer density over space. A GWR model with local kernel bandwidth was compared to a GWR model with global kernel bandwidth and an ordinary least-squares regression (OLS) model with the same parameters to evaluate their relative abilities in modeling deer distributions. The results indicated that the GWR models predicted deer density better than the traditional ordinary least-squares model and also provided useful information regarding local environmental processes affecting deer distribution. GWR model comparisons showed that the local kernel bandwidth GWR model was more realistic than the global kernel bandwidth GWR model, as the latter exaggerated local spatial variation. The parameter estimates and model statistics (e.g., model R 2 ) of the GWR models were mapped using geographic information systems (GIS) to illustrate local spatial variation in the regression relationship and to identify causes of large-scale model misspecifications and low estimation efficiencies. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

We investigated the potential of using unclassified spectral data for predicting the distribution of three bird species over a ¨400,000 ha region of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula using Landsat ETM+ imagery and 433 locations sampled for birds through point count surveys. These species, Black-throated Green Warbler, Nashville Warbler, and Ovenbird, were known to be associated with forest understory features during breeding. We examined the influences of varying two spatially explicit classification parameters on prediction accuracy: 1) the window size used to average spectral values in signature creation and 2) the threshold distance required for bird detections to be counted as present. Two accuracy measurements, proportion correctly classified (PCC) and Kappa, of maps predicting species’ occurrences were calculated with ground data not used during classification. Maps were validated for all three species with Kappa values >0.3 and PCC >0.6. However, PCC provided little information other than a summary of sample plot frequencies used to classify species’ presence and absence. Comparisons with rule-based maps created using the approach of Gap Analysis showed that spectral information predicted the occurrence of these species that use forest subcanopy components better than could be done using known land cover associations (Kappa values 0.1 to 0.3 higher than Gap Analysis maps). Accuracy statistics for each species were affected in different ways by the detection distance of point count surveys used to stratify plots into presence and absence classes. Moderate-to-large detection distances (100 m and 180 m) best classified maps of Blackthroated Green Warbler and Nashville Warbler occurrences, while moderate detection distances (50 m and 100 m), which ignored remote observations, provided the best source of information for classification of Ovenbird occurrence. Window sizes used in signature creation also influenced accuracy statistics but to a lesser extent. Highest Kappa values of majority maps were typically obtained using moderate window sizes of 9 to 13 pixels (0.8 to 1.2 ha), which are representative of the study species territory sizes. The accuracy of wildlife occurrence maps classified from spectral data will therefore differ given the species of interest, the spatial precision of occurrence records used as ground references and the number of pixels included in spectral signatures. For these reasons, a quantitative examination is warranted to determine how subjective decisions made during image classifications affect prediction accuracies.

Wildlife extinction represents the ultimate failure of wildlife conservation. It has many causes, some of them natural, but is increasingly tied to anthropogenic factors. Wildlife loss via domestication, however, is rarely considered. We evaluated the potential for inadvertent domestication of wildlife by determining the effect of feeding and watering on Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium) density, group size, and distribution. Key deer sightings were significantly higher in areas (42 ha) surrounding the households that provided food and water (0.18 deer/m; n= 8) than in randomly selected areas (0.03 deer/m; t = 3.82, 14 df , p = 0.002). Average distance to a household providing food and water decreased logistically as group size increased, and large groups (>2 individuals each) were observed more frequently in areas where food and water were provided (27.5%) than in the randomly selected areas (7.5%). The incidence of large groups outside feeding areas (7.5%), however, was similar to the incidence of large groups during early urbanization (5.1%; 1968- 1973). Our results suggest illegal feeding caused changes in density, group size, and distribution indicative of domestication. Because fresh water and food were primary selective pressures for Key deer before illegal feeding and watering, genetic changes may occur in the future. For those who value "wildness" in wildlife, domestication of wildlife species is a serious problem that must be addressed.

Historical records and recent studies indicate that populations of the Copperbellied Watersnake (Nerodia erythrogaster neglecta) are in decline. Reduction in range and fragmentation of populations are largely based on human activities, primarily through alteration of shallow wetlands. We conducted a comparative study of habitat use to determine why N. e neglecta may be more vulnerable to human-induced changes than sympatric congeners. Nerodia erythrogaster neglecta were observed primarily along shorelines with gentle slopes near very shallow water and often used herbaceous vegetation, logs, grasses, and sedges substrate categories. Nerodia sipedon pleuralis used habitat most similar to N. e. neglecta. Although N. s. pleuralis were observed to be more aquatic and were more often found in open water, they showed the same close association with shorelines and basking substrates as N. e. neglecta. Nerodia rhombifer is the least selective in habitat use of the three species and is the least similar in habitat use to N. e. neglecta in this study. As a whole, the results of this study support previous research that suggests N. e. neglecta is a seasonal habitat specialist. The extensive destruction of seasonal wetlands in the Midwest may thus have a greater impact on N. e. neglecta than their sympatric congeners.

ing a complex reality into ecological models composed of maps, diagrams, and mathematical equations forces modelers to organize information, distinguish essential from superfluous components, and define relationships among variables. Within this context, an assumption is a premise, stated or unstated, which characterizes model variables and relationships as essential or irrelevant to the model’s ­setting and purpose. For example, assumptions about how species interact with their environment at a specific time and place can be used to justify the thematic, spatial, and temporal extent and grain of the input data, given a model’s intended application. These assumptions also justify the use or rejection of specific model variables, parameters, and mathematical functions describing the relationship between focal species and their environment. Furthermore, models improve over time through incremental steps of testing assumptions as hypotheses to establish empirical knowledge. Hence, the utility of any habitat model is both empowered by and limited by its assumptions. Therefore it is critical that project objectives and ecological theory inform assumptions, rather than allowing these decisions to be driven by data availability and knowledge gaps.

Although many taxa show a latitudinal gradient in richness, the relationship between latitude and species richness is often asymmetrical between the northern and southern hemispheres. Here we examine the latitudinal pattern of species richness across 1003 local ant assemblages. We find latitudinal asymmetry, with southern hemisphere sites being more diverse than northern hemisphere sites. Most of this asymmetry could be explained statistically by differences in contemporary climate. Local ant species richness was positively associated with temperature, but negatively (although weakly) associated with temperature range and precipitation. After contemporary climate was accounted for, a modest difference in diversity between hemispheres persisted, suggesting that factors other than contemporary climate contributed to the hemispherical asymmetry. The most parsimonious explanation for this remaining asymmetry is that greater climate change since the Eocene in the northern than in the southern hemisphere has led to more extinctions in the northern hemisphere with consequent effects on local ant species richness. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.