1. Transportability of bacterial infection prediction models for critically ill patients.
- Author
-
Eickelberg G, Sanchez-Pinto LN, Kline AS, and Luo Y
- Subjects
- Humans, Intensive Care Units, Critical Care, Anti-Bacterial Agents therapeutic use, Critical Illness, Bacterial Infections diagnosis, Bacterial Infections drug therapy
- Abstract
Objective: Bacterial infections (BIs) are common, costly, and potentially life-threatening in critically ill patients. Patients with suspected BIs may require empiric multidrug antibiotic regimens and therefore potentially be exposed to prolonged and unnecessary antibiotics. We previously developed a BI risk model to augment practices and help shorten the duration of unnecessary antibiotics to improve patient outcomes. Here, we have performed a transportability assessment of this BI risk model in 2 tertiary intensive care unit (ICU) settings and a community ICU setting. We additionally explored how simple multisite learning techniques impacted model transportability., Methods: Patients suspected of having a community-acquired BI were identified in 3 datasets: Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC), Northwestern Medicine Tertiary (NM-T) ICUs, and NM "community-based" ICUs. ICU encounters from MIMIC and NM-T datasets were split into 70/30 train and test sets. Models developed on training data were evaluated against the NM-T and MIMIC test sets, as well as NM community validation data., Results: During internal validations, models achieved AUROCs of 0.78 (MIMIC) and 0.81 (NM-T) and were well calibrated. In the external community ICU validation, the NM-T model had robust transportability (AUROC 0.81) while the MIMIC model transported less favorably (AUROC 0.74), likely due to case-mix differences. Multisite learning provided no significant discrimination benefit in internal validation studies but offered more stability during transport across all evaluation datasets., Discussion: These results suggest that our BI risk models maintain predictive utility when transported to external cohorts., Conclusion: Our findings highlight the importance of performing external model validation on myriad clinically relevant populations prior to implementation., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF