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Background. The Collaborative Group on Hormonal Factors in Breast Cancer has brought together and reanalysed about 90% of the worldwide epidemiological evidence on the relation between risk of breast cancer and use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Methods. Individual data on 52,705 women with breast cancer and 108,411 women without breast cancer from 51 studies in 21 countries were collected, checked, and analysed centrally. The main analyses are based on 53,865 postmenopausal women with a known age at menopause, of whom 17,830 (33%) had used HRT at some time. The median age at first use was 48 years, and 34% of ever-users had used HRT for 5 years or longer. Estimates of the relative risk of breast cancer associated with the use of HRT were obtained after stratification of all analyses by study, age at diagnosis, time since menopause, body-mass index, parity, and the age a woman was when her first child was born. Findings. Among current users of HRT or those who ceased use 1-4 years previously, the relative risk of having breast cancer diagnosed increased by a factor of 1.023 (95% CI 1.011-1.036; 2p = 0.0002) for each year of use; the relative risk was 1.35 (1.21-1.49; 2p = 0.00001) for women who had used HRT for 5 years or longer (average duration of use in this group 11 years). This increase is comparable with the effect on breast cancer of delaying menopause, since among never-users of HRT the relative risk of breast cancer increases by a factor of 1.028 (95% CI 1.021-1.034) for each year older at menopause. 5 or more years after cessation of HRT use, there was no significant excess of breast cancer overall or in relation to duration of use. These main findings did not vary between individual studies. Of the many factors examined that might affect the relation between breast cancer risk and use of HRT, only a woman's weight and body-mass index had a material effect: the increase in the relative risk of breast dancer associated with long durations of use in current and recent users was greater for women of lower than of higher weight or body-mass index. There was no marked variation in the results according to hormonal type or dose but little information was available about long durations of use of any specific preparation. Cancers diagnosed in women who had ever used HRT tended to be less advanced clinically than those diagnosed in never-users. In North America and Europe the cumulative incidence of breast cancer between the ages of 50 and 70 in never-users of HRT is about 45 per 1000 women. The cumulative excess numbers of breast cancers diagnosed between these ages per 1000 women who began use of HRT at age 50 and used it for 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively, are estimated to be 2 (95% CI 1-3), 6 (3-9), and 12 (5-20). Whether HRT affects mortality from breast cancer is not known. Interpretation. The risk of having breast cancer diagnosed is increased in women using HRT and increases with increasing duration of use. This effect is reduced after cessation of use of HRT and has largely, if not wholly, disappeared after about 5 years. These findings should be considered in the context of the benefits and other risks associated with the use of HRT.

The thyroid gland of children is especially vulnerable to the carcinogenic action of ionizing radiation. To provide insights into various modifying influences on risk, seven major studies with organ doses to individual subjects were evaluated. Five cohort studies (atomic bomb survivors, children treated for tinea capitis, two studies of children irradiated for enlarged tonsils, and infants irradiated for an enlarged thymus gland) and two case-control studies (patients with cervical cancer and childhood cancer) were studied. The combined studies include almost 120,000 people (approximately 58,000 exposed to a wide range of doses and 61,000 nonexposed subjects), nearly 700 thyroid cancers and 3,000,000 person years of follow-up. For persons exposed to radiation before age 15 years, linearity best described the dose response, even down to 0.10 Gy. At the highest doses (> 10 Gy), associated with cancer therapy, there appeared to be a decrease or leveling of risk. For childhood exposures, the pooled excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) was 7.7 (95% CI = 2.1, 28.7) and the excess absolute risk per 10(4) PY Gy (EAR/10(4) PY Gy) was 4.4 (95% CI = 1.9, 10.1). The attributable risk percent (AR%) at 1 Gy was 88%. However, these summary estimates were affected strongly by age at exposure even within this limited age range. The ERR was greater (P = 0.07) for females than males, but the findings from the individual studies were not consistent. The EAR was higher among women, reflecting their higher rate of naturally occurring thyroid cancer. The distribution of ERR over time followed neither a simple multiplicative nor an additive pattern in relation to background occurrence. Only two cases were seen within 5 years of exposure. The ERR began to decline about 30 years after exposure but was still elevated at 40 years. Risk also decreased significantly with increasing age at exposure, with little risk apparent after age 20 years. Based on limited data, there was a suggestion that spreading dose over time (from a few days to > 1 year) may lower risk, possibly due to the opportunity for cellular repair mechanisms to operate. The thyroid gland in children has one of the highest risk coefficients of any organ and is the only tissue with convincing evidence for risk about 1.10 Gy.

We hypothesized that diabetes may play a role in thyroid cancer risk due to the parallel secular rise in diabetes prevalence and morbidity in the United States, the higher prevalence of thyroid disorders among diabetics compared with the general population, and the potential roles of metabolic syndrome, obesity, and diabetes as precipitating factors in cancer development.We assessed the association between self-reported diabetes and the risk of differentiated thyroid cancer in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study, a prospective cohort of 200,556 women and 295,992 men, 50-71 years of age, in 1995-1996. Diabetes status and information on potential confounders was ascertained using a self-administered questionnaire. During an average of 10 years of follow-up, 585 thyroid cancer cases were identified. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for thyroid cancer and thyroid cancer subtypes in men and women according to diabetes status.Nine percent of the total baseline cohort reported a history of diabetes (7% of women, 10% of men). A nonsignificant 25% increase in thyroid cancer risk (HR = 1.25; 95% CI: 0.95-1.64) was associated with diabetes. Among women, the risk was significantly increased (HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.01-2.10). The risk was not elevated among men (HR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.69-1.58). In this cohort, diabetic women with differentiated thyroid cancer were at somewhat higher risk of follicular thyroid cancer (HR = 1.92; 95% CI: 0.86-4.27) than papillary thyroid cancer (HR = 1.25; 95% CI: 0.80-1.97).This study lends support to the hypothesis that diabetes increases the risk of differentiated thyroid cancer.

Relatively few data are available on the prevalence of hyperthyroidism (TSH concentrations of0.3 mIU/liter, with normal or elevated concentrations of free T4) in individuals exposed to radioiodines at low levels. The accident at the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) nuclear plant in Ukraine on April 26, 1986 exposed large numbers of residents to radioactive fallout, principally to iodine-131 ((131)I) (mean and median doses = 0.6 Gy and 0.2 Gy). We investigated the relationship between (131)I and prevalent hyperthyroidism among 11,853 individuals exposed as children or adolescents in Ukraine who underwent an in-depth, standardized thyroid gland screening examination 12-14 years later. Radioactivity measurements taken shortly after the accident were available for all subjects and were used to estimate individual thyroid doses. We identified 76 cases of hyperthyroidism (11 overt, 65 subclinical). Using logistic regression, we tested a variety of continuous risk models and conducted categorical analyses for all subjects combined and for females (53 cases, n = 5,767) and males (23 cases, n = 6,086) separately but found no convincing evidence of a dose-response relationship between (131)I and hyperthyroidism. There was some suggestion of elevated risk among females in an analysis based on a dichotomous dose model with a threshold of 0.5 Gy chosen empirically (OR = 1.86, P = 0.06), but the statistical significance level was reduced (P = 0.13) in a formal analysis with an estimated threshold. In summary, after a thorough exploration of the data, we found no statistically significant dose-response relationship between individual (131)I thyroid doses and prevalent hyperthyroidism.

The thyroid gland is one of the most radiosensitive human organs. While it is well known that radiation exposure increases the risk of thyroid cancer, less is known about its effects in relation to non-malignant thyroid diseases. The aim of this review is to evaluate the effects of high- and low-dose radiation on benign structural and functional diseases of the thyroid. We examined the results of major studies from cancer patients treated with high-dose radiotherapy or thyrotoxicosis patients treated with high doses of iodine-131, patients treated with moderate- to high-dose radiotherapy for benign diseases, persons exposed to low doses from environmental radiation, and survivors of the atomic bombings who were exposed to a range of doses. We evaluated radiation effects on structural (tumors, nodules), functional (hyper- and hypothyroidism), and autoimmune thyroid diseases. After a wide range of doses of ionizing radiation, an increased risk of thyroid adenomas and nodules was observed in a variety of populations and settings. The dose response appeared to be linear at low to moderate doses, but in one study there was some suggestion of a reduction in risk above 5 Gy. The elevated risk for benign tumors continues for decades after exposure. Considerably less consistent findings are available regarding functional thyroid diseases including autoimmune diseases. In general, associations for these outcomes were fairly weak, and significant radiation effects were most often observed after high doses, particularly for hypothyroidism. A significant radiation dose-response relationship was demonstrated for benign nodules and follicular adenomas. The effects of radiation on functional thyroid diseases are less clear, partly due to the greater difficulties encountered in studying these diseases.

Radiation exposure of the thyroid at a young age is a recognized risk factor for the development of differentiated thyroid cancer lasting for four decades and probably for a lifetime after exposure. Medical radiation exposure, however, occurs frequently, including among the pediatric population, which is especially sensitive to the effects of radiation. In the past, the treatment of benign medical conditions with external radiation represented the most significant thyroid radiation exposures. Today, diagnostic medical radiation represents the largest source of man-made radiation exposure. Radiation exposure related to the use of computerized tomography is rising exponentially, particularly in the pediatric population. There is direct epidemiological evidence of a small but significant increased risk of cancer at radiation doses equivalent to computerized tomography doses used today. Paralleling the increasing use of medical radiation is an increase in the incidence of papillary thyroid cancer. At present, it is unclear how much of this increase is related to increased detection of subclinical disease from the increased utilization of ultrasonography and fine-needle aspiration, how much is due to a true increase in thyroid cancer, and how much, if any, can be ascribed to medical radiation exposure. Fortunately, the amount of radiation exposure from medical sources can be reduced. In this article we review the sources of thyroid radiation exposure, radiation risks to the thyroid gland, strategies for reducing radiation exposure to the thyroid, and ways that endocrinologists can participate in this effort. Finally, we provide some suggestions for future research directions.

Exposure to radioactive iodine ((131)I) from atmospheric nuclear tests conducted in Nevada in the 1950s may have increased thyroid cancer risks. To investigate the long-term effects of this exposure, we analyzed data on thyroid cancer incidence (18,545 cases) from eight Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) tumor registries for the period 1973-2004. Excess relative risks (ERR) per gray (Gy) for exposure received before age 15 were estimated by relating age-, birth year-, sex- and county-specific thyroid cancer rates to estimates of cumulative dose to the thyroid that take age into account. The estimated ERR per Gy for dose received before 1 year of age was 1.8 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.5-3.2]. There was no evidence that this estimate declined with follow-up time or that risk increased with dose received at ages 1-15. These results confirm earlier findings based on less extensive data for the period 1973-1994. The lack of a dose response for those exposed at ages 1-15 is inconsistent with studies of children exposed to external radiation or (131)I from the Chernobyl accident, and results need to be interpreted in light of limitations and biases inherent in ecological studies, including the error in doses and case ascertainment resulting from migration. Nevertheless, the study adds support for an increased risk of thyroid cancer due to fallout, although the data are inadequate to quantify it.

Background Radiation exposure is an established cause of clinical thyroid cancer, but little is known about radiation effects on papillary microcarcinoma (PMC) of the thyroid, a relatively common subclinical thyroid malignancy. Because the incidence of these small thyroid cancers has been increasing, it is important to better understand them and their relationship to radiation.

Background: Adjuvant radiotherapy is common for uterine corpus cancer patients, yet the long-term carcinogenic effects of different types of radiotherapy have not been studied adequately. Methods: Second primary cancer risks were quantified in a cohort of 60,949 individuals surviving ≥1 year of uterine corpus cancer diagnosed from 1973 to 2003 in Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program cancer registries. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were estimated by comparing patients treated with surgery plus various types of radiotherapy with patients receiving surgery only. Results: The IRRs of a second cancer were increased among irradiated patients compared with patients having surgery only [combination radiotherapy, IRR = 1.26; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.16-1.36; external beam therapy, IRR = 1.15; 95% CI CI, 1.08-1.22; brachytherapy, IRR = 1.07; 95% CI, 1.00-1.16]. IRRs were highest for heavily irradiated sites (that is colon, rectum, and bladder) and for leukemia following any external beam therapy, with the largest risks for solid cancers among 10-year survivors. Any external beam therapy had a 44% higher cancer risk at heavily irradiated sites than brachytherapy when the two treatments were directly compared (5-year survivors: IRR = 1.44; 95% CI, 1.19-1.75). We estimated that of 2,012 solid cancers developing ≥5 years after irradiation, 213 (11%) could be explained by radiotherapy. Conclusions: Radiotherapy for uterine cancer increases the risk of leukemia and second solid cancers at sites in close proximity to the uterus, emphasizing the need for continued long-term surveillance for new malignancies. The overall risk of a second cancer was lower following brachytherapy compared with any external beam radiotherapy. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 19(2); 464–74

Beginning in 1950, people living on the banks of the Techa River received chronic low-dose-rate internal and external radiation exposures as a result of releases from the Mayak nuclear weapons plutonium production facility in the Southern Urals region of the Russian Federation. The Techa River cohort includes about 30,000 people who resided in riverside villages sometime between 1950 and 1960. Cumulative red bone marrow doses range up to 2 Gy with a mean of 0.3 Gy and a median of 0.2 Gy. Between 1953 and 2005, 93 first primary cases of leukemia, including 23 cases of chronic lymphatic leukemia (CLL), were ascertained among the cohort members. A significant linear dose-response relationship was seen for leukemias other than CLL (P < 0.001), but not for CLL. The estimated excess relative risk per Gy is 4.9 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6; 14.3) for leukemias other than CLL and less than 0 (95% upper bound 1.4) for CLL.

The incidence of thyroid cancer has been rapidly increasing in the United States, but few risk factors have been established. The authors prospectively examined the associations of self-reported medical history, anthropometric factors, and behavioral factors with thyroid cancer risk among 90,713 US radiologic technologists (69,506 women and 21,207 men) followed from 1983 through 2006. Incident thyroid cancers in 242 women and 40 men were reported. Elevated risks were observed for women with benign thyroid conditions (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.73, 3.20), benign breast disease (HR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.08, 2.26), asthma (HR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.00, 2.83), and body mass index > or =35.0 versus 18.5-24.9 kg/m(2) (HR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.94; P-trend = 0.04). Current smoking was inversely associated with thyroid cancer risk (HR = 0.54). No clear associations emerged for reproductive factors, other medical conditions, alcohol intake, or physical activity. Despite few thyroid cancers in men, men with benign thyroid conditions had a significantly increased risk of thyroid cancer (HR = 4.65, 95% CI: 1.62, 13.34), and results for other risk factors were similar to those for women. Consistent with prior studies, obesity and benign thyroid conditions increased and current smoking decreased the risk of thyroid cancer. The novel findings for benign breast disease and asthma warrant further investigation.

A small workshop entitled ‘‘Low Dose Radiation Epidemiology—What Can it Tell Us?’’ was held at the North Bethesda Marriott Hotel, December 10–11, 2008. The workshop was organized and funded by the Department of Energy’s Low Dose Radiation Research Program, and the Organizing Committee consisted of a member each from DOE, EPA and NCI, plus one member from an academic institution. Participants were chosen for their acknowledged expertise and included 29 epidemiologists, four dosimetrists, and five radiation biologists. The impetus for holding the workshop was the following: There is some suggestion from research in cellular and animal systems that the biological response may differ after highand low-dose/dose-rate radiation exposure. There is no consensus, however, as to whether these differences would result in higher or lower risks of cancer or other diseases than would be predicted from the linear extrapolation defined by current epidemiological data. The workshop participants discussed the value of current human epidemiological data at lower doses and the possibilities for improving and expanding lowdose data obtained from epidemiological studies. On the first day, the selected existing epidemiological studies of low-dose/low-dose-rate exposed populations were reviewed.

Background: Translocations, the most stable form of chromosome aberrations, are an established biomarker of cumulative exposure to external ionizing radiation. Airline pilots are exposed to varying levels of cosmic ionizing radiation, but to date, there have been few flight crew studies that have examined translocations in relation to flight experience. Methods: We determined the frequency of translocations in the peripheral blood lymphocytes of 83 airline pilots and 50 comparison subjects (mean age = 47 and 46 years, respectively). Translocations were scored in an average of 1039 cell equivalents (CE) per subject using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) whole chromosome painting and expressed per 100 CE. Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the relationship between translocation frequency and exposure status and flight years, adjusting for age, self-reported personal diagnostic x-ray procedures, and military flying. Results: There was no significant difference in the adjusted mean translocation frequency of pilots and the comparison group (0.37 ± 0.04 vs. 0.38 ± 0.06 translocations/100 CE, respectively). However, among the pilots, the adjusted translocation frequency was significantly associated with flight years (P = 0.01) with rate ratios of 1.06 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.11) and 1.81 (95% CI 1.16 to 2.82) for a 1- and 10-year incremental increase in flight years, respectively. The adjusted rate ratio for pilots in the highest compared to those in the lowest quartile of flight years was 2.59 (95% CI 1.26 to 5.33). Conclusions: Our data suggest that pilots with long-term flying experience may be exposed to biologically significant doses of ionizing radiation. Epidemiologic studies with longer follow-up of larger cohorts of pilots with a wide range of radiation exposure levels are needed to clarify the relationship between cosmic radiation exposure and cancer risk.

BACKGROUND. Radiotherapy for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) increases the risk of salivary gland carcinomas (SGC). To the authors' knowledge, however, the magnitude of the risk has not been assessed to date. METHODS. The risks of SGC among 20,928 1-year survivors of HL who were diagnosed between 1973 and 2003 were evaluated in 11 population-based cancer registry areas of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Observed-to-expected ratios (O/E) were assessed by radiation treatment, sex, age at the time of HL diagnosis, calendar year of diagnosis, attained age, time since HL diagnosis, histologic type of SGC, and site of occurrence in the major salivary glands. RESULTS. Among 11,047 HL patients who received radiotherapy as part of their initial treatment for HL, 21 developed subsequent invasive SGC (O/E = 16.9; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 10.4-25.8). The risk of radiation-related SGC was highest for younger HL patients (age

In the 1950s, the Mayak nuclear weapons facility in Russia discharged liquid radioactive wastes into the Techa River causing exposure of riverside residents to protracted low-to-moderate doses of radiation. Almost 10,000 women received estimated doses to the stomach of up to 0.47 Gray (Gy) (mean dose=0.04 Gy) from external gamma-exposure and (137)Cs incorporation. We have been following this population for cancer incidence and mortality and as in the general Russian population, we found a significant temporal trend of breast cancer incidence. A significant linear radiation dose-response relationship was observed (P=0.01) with an estimated excess relative risk per Gray (ERR/Gy) of 5.00 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.80, 12.76). We estimated that approximately 12% of the 109 observed cases could be attributed to radiation.

Informative studies of cancer risks associated with medical radiation are difficult to conduct owing to low radiation doses, poor recall of diagnostic X rays, and long intervals before cancers occur. Chromosome aberrations have been associated with increased cancer risk and translocations are a known radiation biomarker. Seventy-nine U.S. radiologic technologists were selected for blood collection, and translocations were enumerated by whole chromosome painting. We developed a dose score to the red bone marrow for medical radiation exposure from X-ray examinations reported by the technologists that they received as patients. Using Poisson regression, we analyzed translocations in relation to the dose scores. Each dose score unit approximated 1 mGy. The estimated mean cumulative red bone marrow radiation dose score was 42 (range 1-265). After adjustment for age, occupational radiation, and radiotherapy for benign conditions, translocation frequencies significantly increased with increasing red bone marrow dose score with an estimate of 0.007 translocations per 100 CEs per score unit (95% CI, 0.002 to 0.013; P = 0.01). Chromosome damage has been linked with elevated cancer risk, and we found that cumulative radiation exposure from medical X-ray examinations was associated with increased numbers of chromosome translocations.

Workers at the Mayak nuclear facility in the Russian Federation offer the only adequate human data for evaluating cancer risks from exposure to plutonium. Risks of mortality from cancers of the lung, liver and bone, the organs receiving the largest doses from plutonium, were evaluated in a cohort of 17,740 workers initially hired 1948-1972 using, for the first time, recently improved individual organ dose estimates. Excess relative risk (ERR) models were used to evaluate risks as functions of internal (plutonium) dose, external (primarily gamma) dose, gender, attained age and smoking. By December 31, 2003, 681 lung cancer deaths, 75 liver cancer deaths and 30 bone cancer deaths had occurred. Of these 786 deaths, 239 (30%) were attributed to plutonium exposure. Significant plutonium dose-response relationships (p < 0.001) were observed for all 3 endpoints, with lung and liver cancer risks reasonably described by linear functions. At attained age 60, the ERRs per Gy for lung cancer were 7.1 for males and 15 for females; the averaged-attained age ERRs for liver cancer were 2.6 and 29 for males and females, respectively; those for bone cancer were 0.76 and 3.4. This study is the first to present and compare dose-response analyses for cancers of all 3 organs. The unique Mayak cohort with its high exposures and well characterized doses has allowed quantification of the plutonium dose-response for lung, liver and bone cancer risks based on direct human data. These results will play an important role in plutonium risk assessment.

Childhood radiation exposure has been associated with an increased risk for developing several neoplasms, particularly benign and malignant thyroid tumors, but little is known about the risk of developing acoustic neuromas. The aim of this study was to confirm whether there is a risk for acoustic neuromas and, if so, to determine its magnitude and duration. We investigated the time trend and dose-response relationships for acoustic neuroma incidence in a cohort of 3,112 individuals who were irradiated as children between 1939 and 1962. Most of the patients were treated to reduce the size of their tonsils and adenoids and received substantial radiation exposure to the cerebellopontine angle, the site of acoustic neuromas. Forty-three patients developed benign acoustic neuromas, forty of them surgically resected, far in excess of what might be expected from data derived from brain tumor registries. The mean dose (+/-SD) to the cerebellopontine angle was 4.6 +/- 1.9 Gy. The relative risk per Gy was 1.14 (95% confidence interval 1.0-1.3). The earliest case occurred 20.4 years after exposure and the latest 55 years after exposure (mean 38.3 +/- 10.1 years). Our study provides support for an association between acoustic neuromas and childhood radiation exposure. Although acoustic neuromas are usually benign and often asymptomatic, many cause significant morbidity. Following childhood radiation exposure, they appear after a long latency and continue to occur many decades afterward. Any symptoms of an acoustic neuroma in a patient with a history of radiation to the head and neck area should be investigated carefully, and the threshold for employing imaging should be lowered.

This paper describes methods developed specifically for reconstructing individual organ- and tissue-absorbed dose of radiation from past exposures from medical treatments and procedures for use in epidemiological studies. These methods have evolved over the past three decades and have been applied to a variety of medical exposures including external-beam radiation therapy and brachytherapy for malignant and benign diseases as well as diagnostic examinations. The methods used for estimating absorbed dose to organs in and outside the defined treatment volume generally require archival data collection, abstraction and review, and phantom measurements to simulate past exposure conditions. Three techniques are used to estimate doses from radiation therapy: (1) calculation in three-dimensional mathematical computer models using an extensive database of out-of-beam doses measured in tissue-equivalent materials, (2) measurement in anthropomorphic phantoms constructed of tissue-equivalent material, and (3) calculation using a three-dimensional treatment-planning computer. For diagnostic exposures, doses are estimated from published data and software based on Monte Carlo techniques. We describe and compare these methods of dose estimation and discuss uncertainties in estimated organ doses and potential for future improvement. Seven epidemiological studies are discussed to illustrate the methods.

Context: The thyroid gland is vulnerable to the carcinogenic effects of ionizing radiation, and there is a well-documented inverse correlation between thyroid cancer and age at exposure, particularly for ages less than 20 yr. One of the factors responsible for this phenomenon may be more rapid cell proliferation in children. Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the proliferative rate of normal human thyroid cells in different age groups. Design: We used immunohistochemical analysis to determine the Ki-67 proliferative index in 117 thyroid glands obtained at autopsy, including 25 fetal thyroids (11–40 wk gestation), 55 childhood thyroids (0–19 yr), and 37 adult thyroids (20–60 yr). Results: The rate of Ki-67 labeling in the three groups was 7.4 ± 6.10, 0.23 ± 0.15, and 0.08 ± 0.04% respectively, demonstrating an overall trend for diminishing proliferative activity of thyroid cells with increasing age. However, a lack of correlation was noted between the slopes of cancer risk calculated from previous studies of irradiated populations and proliferative rate in the pediatric age intervals of 0–4 and 5–9 yr, suggesting that other factors are likely to be responsible for the particularly high sensitivity to radiation-induced thyroid cancer among the youngest children. Conclusions: Our findings of a general decrease in proliferative activity of thyroid cells with age may explain, at least in part, the higher risks of radiation-related thyroid cancer in children compared with adults. However, the variation in the rate of cell proliferation is unlikely to be responsible entirely for this phenomenon and other factors may also be involved.

To investigate whether the nature of the relationship between body mass index (BMI (kg/m2)) and all-cause mortality is direct, J- or U-shaped, and whether this relationship changes as people age.Prospective nationwide cohort study of US radiologic technologists (USRT).Sixty-four thousand seven hundred and thirty-three female and 19 011 male certified radiation technologists.We prospectively followed participants from the USRT study who completed a mail survey in 1983-1989 through 2000. During an average of 14.7 years of follow-up or 1.23 million person-years, 2278 women and 1495 men died. Using Cox's proportional-hazards regression analyses, we analyzed the relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality by gender and by age group (55 years;or = 55 years). We also examined risk in never-smokers after the first 5 years of follow-up to limit bias owing to the confounding effects of smoking and illness-related weight loss on BMI and mortality.Risks were generally J-shaped for both genders and age groups. When we excluded smokers and the first 5 year of follow-up, risks were substantially reduced in those with low BMIs. In never-smoking women under the age of 55 years (excluding the initial 5-year follow-up period), risk rose as BMI increased above 21.0 kg/m2, whereas in older women, risk increased beginning at a higher BMI (or = 25.0 kg/m2). Among younger men who never smoked (excluding the initial 5-year follow-up period), risk began to rise above a BMI of 23.0 kg/m2, whereas in older men, risk did not begin to increase until exceeding a BMI of 30.0 kg/m2.In younger/middle-aged, but not older, women and men, mortality risks appear directly related to BMI. The more complicated relationship between BMI and mortality in older subjects suggests the importance of assessing whether other markers of body composition better explain mortality risk in older adults.

The association between chronic occupational ionizing radiation exposure in the medical field and thyroid cancer is not well characterized. Thyroid cancer incidence was ascertained for 2 periods in a cohort of radiologic technologists certified for a minimum 2 years and enumerated in 1983: (i) cases identified prospectively in 73,080 radiologic technologists who were free of thyroid cancer at the baseline survey and completed a second questionnaire a decade later (N = 121), and (ii) cases occurring prior to cohort enumeration among 90,245 technologists who completed the baseline survey and were thyroid cancer free 2 years after certification (N = 148). Survival analyses estimated risks associated with employment as a radiologic technologist, including duration of employment, period of employment, types of procedures and work practices. The only occupational history characteristic associated with prospectively identified thyroid cancer was a history of holding patients for X-ray procedures at least 50 times (HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.01-2.15). Total years worked as a radiologic technologist, years performing diagnostic, therapeutic, and nuclear medicine procedures, employment under age 20 and calendar period of first employment were not associated with thyroid cancer risk. Risk of thyroid cancers diagnosed before the baseline questionnaire was inversely associated with decade first employed as a technologist, and was elevated, albeit imprecisely, among those working more than 5 years prior to 1950 (HR = 3.04, 95% CI = 1.01-10.78). These data provide modest evidence of an association between employment as a radiologic technologist and thyroid cancer risk; however, the findings require confirmation with more accurate exposure models.

Background: There are limited data on risks of haematopoietic malignancies associated with protracted low-to-moderate dose radiation. Aims: To contribute the first incidence risk estimates for haematopoietic malignancies in relation to work history, procedures, practices, and protective measures in a large population of mostly female medical radiation workers. Methods: The investigators followed up 71 894 (77.9% female) US radiologic technologists, first certified during 1926–80, from completion of a baseline questionnaire (1983–89) to return of a second questionnaire (1994–98), diagnosis of a first cancer, death, or 31 August 1998 (731 306 person-years), whichever occurred first. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to compute risks. Results: Relative risks (RR) for leukaemias other than chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (non-CLL, 41 cases) were increased among technologists working five or more years before 1950 (RR = 6.6, 95% CI 1.0 to 41.9, based on seven cases) or holding patients 50 or more times for x ray examination (RR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.4). Risks of non-CLL leukaemias were not significantly related to the number of years subjects worked in more recent periods, the year or age first worked, the total years worked, specific procedures or equipment used, or personal radiotherapy. Working as a radiologic technologist was not significantly linked with risk of multiple myeloma (28 cases), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (118 cases), Hodgkin's lymphoma (31 cases), or chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (23 cases). Conclusion: Similar to results for single acute dose and fractionated high dose radiation exposures, there was increased risk for non-CLL leukaemias decades after initial protracted radiation exposure that likely cumulated to low-to-moderate doses.

Residents living on the banks of the Techa River in the Southern Urals region of Russia were exposed to radioactive contamination from the Mayak plutonium production and separation facility that discharged liquid radioactive waste into this river. This paper describes the methods used to establish and follow the Extended Techa River Cohort (ETRC), which includes almost 30,000 people living along the Techa River who were exposed to a complex mixture of radionuclides, largely 90Sr and 137Cs. The system of regular follow-up allows ascertainment of vital status, cause of death and cancer incidence. With over 50 years of follow-up and over 50% deceased, the ETRC now provides a valuable opportunity to study a wide range of health effects, both early and late, associated with protracted internal and external radiation exposures. The wide range of doses allows analysis of the nature of the dose-response relationship based on internal comparisons. Other features of the cohort are the high proportion (40%) exposed under age 20, and the inclusion of both sexes. The limitations of the study include loss to follow-up due to difficulties in tracing some cohort members and migration and incomplete ascertainment of cause of death.

Ionizing radiation (IR) is an established cause of nonmelanoma skin cancer, but there is uncertainty about the risk associated with chronic occupational exposure to IR and how it is influenced by ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure. We studied 1,355 incident cases with basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and 270 with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the skin in a cohort of 65,304 U.S. white radiologic technologists who responded to the baseline questionnaire survey in 1983-1989 and the follow-up survey in 1994-1998. Cox's proportional-hazards model was used to estimate relative risks of BCC and SCC associated with surrogate measures of occupational exposure to IR and residential UVR exposure during childhood and adulthood, adjusted for potential confounders including pigmentation characteristics. Relative risks of BCC, but not of SCC, were elevated among technologists who first worked during the 1950s (RR = 1.42; 95% CI = 1.12-1.80), 1940s (RR = 2.04; 95% CI = 1.44-2.88) and before 1940 (RR = 2.16; 95% CI = 1.14-4.09), when IR exposures were high, compared to those who first worked after 1960 (p for trend < 0.01). The effect of year first worked on BCC risk was not modified by UVR exposure, but was significantly stronger among individuals with lighter compared to darker eye and hair color (p = 0.013 and 0.027, respectively). This study provides some evidence that chronic occupational exposure to IR at low to moderate levels can increase the risk of BCC, and that this risk may be modified by pigmentation characteristics.

Thyroid cancer incidence rates have increased steadily in the United States and elsewhere. Radiation exposure at a young age is a strong risk factor, but otherwise the etiology is unclear. To explore etiologic clues, we studied the risk of thyroid cancer after an earlier primary cancer, as well as the risk of developing multiple primaries after an earlier thyroid cancer in the U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology and End-Results (SEER) cancer registries program (1973–2000). In 2,036,597 patients diagnosed with any invasive cancer who survived for a minimum of 2 months, we observed a 42% increased risk compared to the general population for second thyroid cancer based on 1,366 cases (95% confidence interval (CI) = 35–50%; excess absolute risk (EAR) = 0.38/10,000 person-years (PY)). Elevated risks were observed after most cancer sites studied. The most pronounced excess (observed/expected (O/E) = 2.86) was seen for second thyroid cancers detected in the year after diagnosis of the first cancer. Among 29,456 2-month thyroid cancer survivors, 2,214 second cancers occurred (O/E = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.06–1.15; EAR = 7.64/10,000 PY). Again, the highest risk was seen in the first year (O/E = 1.26). Patients

Radiologists and radiologic technologists were among the earliest occupational groups exposed to ionizing radiation and represent a large segment of the working population exposed to radiation from human-made sources. The authors reviewed epidemiologic data on cancer risks from eight cohorts of over 270,000 radiologists and technologists in various countries. The most consistent finding was increased mortality due to leukemia among early workers employed before 1950, when radiation exposures were high. This, together with an increasing risk of leukemia with increasing duration of work in the early years, provided evidence of an excess risk of leukemia associated with occupational radiation exposure in that period. While findings on several types of solid cancers were less consistent, several studies provided evidence of a radiation effect for breast cancer and skin cancer. To date, there is no clear evidence of an increased cancer risk in medical radiation workers exposed to current levels of radiation doses. However, given a relatively short period of time for which the most recent workers have been followed up and in view of the increasing uses of radiation in modern medical practices, it is important to continue to monitor the health status of medical radiation workers.

In the 1940s and 1950s, children in Israel were treated for tinea capitis by irradiation to the scalp to induce epilation. Follow-up studies of these patients and of other radiation- exposed populations show an increased risk of malignant and benign thyroid tumors. Those analyses, however, assume that thyroid dose for individuals is estimated precisely without error. Failure to account for uncertainties in dosimetry may affect standard errors and bias dose-response estimates. For the Israeli tinea capitis study, we discuss sources of uncertainties and adjust dosimetry for uncertainties in the prediction of true dose from X-ray treatment parameters. We also account for missing ages at exposure for patients with multiple X-ray treatments, since only ages at first treatment are known, and for missing data on treatment center, which investigators use to define exposure. Our reanalysis of the dose response for thyroid cancer and benign thyroid tumors indicates that uncertainties in dosimetry have minimal effects on dose-response estimation and for inference on the modifying effects of age at first exposure, time since exposure, and other factors. Since the components of the dose uncertainties we describe are likely to be present in other epidemiological studies of patients treated with radiation, our analysis may provide a model for considering the potential role of these uncertainties.

Nearly 20 epidemiologic or related studies of cancer incidence and mortality have been published during or since 2000, with several reporting increased risks of female breast cancer among flight attendants and melanoma among both pilots and cabin crew. Occasionally, excesses of other cancers have been observed, but not consistently. Although the real causes of these excess cancer risks are not known, there is concern that they may be related to occupational exposures to ionizing radiation of cosmic origin. It is possible that confounding risk factors may partially or totally explain the observed relationships, but several investigations are beginning to address lack of past adjustment for reproductive factors and sun exposure with improved study designs. With progress in aviation technology, planes will fly longer and at higher altitudes, and presumably the number of flights and passengers will increase. To respond responsibly to the real and perceived risks associated with flying, more extensive data are needed, but special efforts should be considered to ensure new projects can genuinely add to our current knowledge.

High doses of ionizing radiation clearly produce deleterious consequences in humans, including, but not exclusively, cancer induction. At very low radiation doses the situation is much less clear, but the risks of low-dose radiation are of societal importance in relation to issues as varied as screening tests for cancer, the future of nuclear power, occupational radiation exposure, frequent-flyer risks, manned space exploration, and radiological terrorism. We review the difficulties involved in quantifying the risks of low-dose radiation and address two specific questions. First, what is the lowest dose of x- or gamma-radiation for which good evidence exists of increased cancer risks in humans? The epidemiological data suggest that it is approximately 10-50 mSv for an acute exposure and approximately 50-100 mSv for a protracted exposure. Second, what is the most appropriate way to extrapolate such cancer risk estimates to still lower doses? Given that it is supported by experimentally grounded, quantifiable, biophysical arguments, a linear extrapolation of cancer risks from intermediate to very low doses currently appears to be the most appropriate methodology. This linearity assumption is not necessarily the most conservative approach, and it is likely that it will result in an underestimate of some radiation-induced cancer risks and an overestimate of others.

At present, direct data on risk from protracted or fractionated radiation exposure at low dose rates have been limited largely to studies of populations exposed to low cumulative doses with resulting low statistical power. We evaluated the cancer risks associated with protracted exposure to external whole-body gamma radiation at high cumulative doses (the average dose is 0.8 Gy and the highest doses exceed 10 Gy) in Russian nuclear workers. Cancer deaths in a cohort of about 21,500 nuclear workers who began working at the Mayak complex between 1948 and 1972 were ascertained from death certificates and autopsy reports with follow-up through December 1997. Excess relative risk models were used to estimate solid cancer and leukemia risks associated with external gamma-radiation dose with adjustment for effects of plutonium exposures. Both solid cancer and leukemia death rates increased significantly with increasing gamma-ray dose (P0.001). Under a linear dose-response model, the excess relative risk for lung, liver and skeletal cancers as a group (668 deaths) adjusted for plutonium exposure is 0.30 per gray (P0.001) and 0.08 per gray (P0.001) for all other solid cancers (1062 deaths). The solid cancer dose-response functions appear to be nonlinear, with the excess risk estimates at doses of less than 3 Gy being about twice those predicted by the linear model. Plutonium exposure was associated with increased risks both for lung, liver and skeletal cancers (the sites of primary plutonium deposition) and for other solid cancers as a group. A significant dose response, with no indication of plutonium exposure effects, was found for leukemia. Excess risks for leukemia exhibited a significant dependence on the time since the dose was received. For doses received within 3 to 5 years of death the excess relative risk per gray was estimated to be about 7 (P0.001), but this risk was only 0.45 (P = 0.02) for doses received 5 to 45 years prior to death. External gamma-ray exposures significantly increased risks of both solid cancers and leukemia in this large cohort of men and women with occupational radiation exposures. Risks at doses of less than 1 Gy may be slightly lower than those seen for doses arising from acute exposures in the atomic bomb survivors. As dose estimates for the Mayak workers are improved, it should be possible to obtain more precise estimates of solid cancer and leukemia risks from protracted external radiation exposure in this cohort.

Objective: To analyze the role of smoking, alcohol, coffee and tea in relation to thyroid cancer, we conducted a pooled analysis of 14 case–control studies conducted in the United States, Europe, and Asia. Methods: The sample consisted of 2725 thyroid cancer cases (2247 females, 478 males) and 4776 controls (3699 females, 1077 males). Conditional logistic regression with stratification on study, age at diagnosis, and gender was used to compute odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results: Thyroid cancer risk was reduced in persons who had ever smoked. The relationship was more pronounced in current smokers (OR = 0.6, 95% CI = 0.6–0.7) than former smokers (OR = 0.9, 95% CI = 0.8–1.1). There were significant trends of reduced risk with greater duration and frequency of smoking. For consumption of wine and beer, there was a significant trend of decreasing thyroid cancer risk (p = 0.02) that was not maintained after adjustment for current smoking (p = 0.12). Thyroid cancer risk was not associated with consumption of coffee or tea. These findings were consistent in both gender-specific and histology-specific (papillary and follicular) analyses. Conclusions: Pooled analyses of these geographically diverse case–control data indicate a reduced thyroid cancer risk associated with current smoking. A reduced risk associated with alcohol was eliminated after adjustment for smoking, and caffeinated beverages did not alter thyroid cancer risk.

Data are limited on the role of chronic exposure to low-dose ionizing radiation in the etiology of cancer. In a nationwide cohort of 146,022 U.S. radiologic technologists (73% female), we evaluated mortality risks in relation to work characteristics. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were computed to compare mortality in the total cohort vs. the general population of the United States. Mortality risks were low for all causes (SMR = 0.76) and for all cancers (SMR = 0.82) among the radiologic technologists. We also calculated relative risks (RR) for the 90,305 technologists who responded to a baseline mailed questionnaire, using Poisson regression models, adjusted for known risk factors. Risks were higher for all cancers (RR = 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.93–1.69) and breast cancer (RR = 2.92, 95% CI = 1.22–7.00) among radiologic technologists first employed prior to 1940 compared to those first employed in 1960 or later, and risks declined with more recent calendar year of first employment (p-trend = 0.04 and 0.002, respectively), irrespective of employment duration. Risk for the combined category of acute lymphocytic, acute myeloid and chronic myeloid leukemias was increased among those first employed prior to 1950 (RR = 1.64, 95% CI = 0.42–6.31) compared to those first employed in 1950 or later. Risks rose for breast cancer (p-trend = 0.018) and for acute lymphocytic, acute myeloid and chronic myeloid leukemias (p-trend = 0.05) with increasing duration of employment as a radiologic technologist prior to 1950. The elevated mortality risks for breast cancer and for the combined group of acute lymphocytic, acute myeloid and chronic myeloid leukemias are consistent with a radiation etiology given greater occupational exposures to ionizing radiation prior to 1950 than in more recent times. © 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

We have examined the pattern of four radiation-related neoplasms in a radiation-exposed cohort of 2795 patients. They had received conventional radiation treatments for benign conditions in the head and neck area when they were children. At the end of follow-up, 350 thyroid cancers, 108 benign and malignant salivary tumors, 87 neural tumors, and 70 cases of hyperparathyroidism had occurred. In 492 individuals (17.6% of the cohort), there were single tumors, and in 60 individuals (2.1%), there were multiple tumors. Because this was an apparent excess of multiple tumors, we tested the hypothesis that the excess arose, at least in part, from variation in radiation susceptibility in the cohort. To analyze this, we developed a method to account for differences in length of follow-up and known risk factors, such as age at radiation exposure, radiation dose, and gender. This analysis showed that the excess concordance of neoplasms could be explained by known risk factors, thereby suggesting that susceptibility factors did not play a role in the development of multiple tumors. Of the 350 thyroid cancers, 50 occurred in subjects with other radiation-related neoplasms. Therefore, we tested an additional hypothesis, that the presence of these other neoplasms was related to the clinical behavior of the thyroid cancer. Using thyroid cancer recurrence as the end point, we did not observe a relationship with the presence of other neoplasms. In summary, we demonstrated an excess of concordance of radiation-related neoplasms that could be explained by known risk factors, and we found that thyroid cancer behavior was not related to the occurrence of multiple tumors.

We evaluated breast cancer mortality through 1997 among 69 525 female radiologic technologists who were certified in the United States from 1926 through 1982 and who responded to our questionnaire. Risk of breast cancer mortality was examined according to work history and practices and was adjusted for known risk factors. Breast cancer mortality risk was highest among women who were first employed as radiologic technologists prior to 1940 (relative risk [RR] = 2.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.22 to 7.00) compared with risk of those first employed in 1960 or later and declined with more recent calendar year of first employment (P for trend = .002). Breast cancer mortality risk increased with increasing number of years of employment as a technologist prior to 1950 (P for trend = .018). However, risk was not associated with the total number of years a woman worked as a technologist. Technologists who first performed fluoroscopy (RR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.02 to 3.11) and multifilm procedures (RR = 1.87, 95% CI = 1.04 to 3.34) before 1950 had statistically significantly elevated risks compared with technologists who first performed these procedures in 1960 or later. The high risks of breast cancer mortality for women exposed to occupational radiation prior to 1950 and the subsequent decline in risk are consistent with the dramatic reduction in recommended radiation exposure limits over time.

Nuclear workers, oil well loggers, astronauts, air flight crews, and frequent fliers can be exposed to low doses of neutrons, but the long-term human health consequences of neutron exposure are unknown. While few of these exposed populations are suitable for studying the effects of neutron exposure, patients treated with neutron-beam therapy might be a source of information. To assess the feasibility of conducting a multi-center international study of the late effects of neutron therapy, we surveyed 23 cancer centers that had used neutron beam therapy. For the 17 responding institutions, only 25% of the patients treated with neutrons (2,855 of 11,191) were alive more than 2 years after treatment. In a two-center U.S. pilot study of 484 neutron-treated cancer patients, we assessed the feasibility of obtaining radiotherapy records, cancer incidence and other follow-up data, and of estimating patient organ doses. Patients were treated with 42 MeV neutrons between 1972 and 1989. Applying a clinical equivalence factor of 3.2 for neutrons, total average organ doses outside the treatment beam ranged from 0.14 to 0.29 Gy for thyroid, 0.40 to 2.50 Gy for breast, 0.63 to 2.35 Gy for kidney, and 1.12 to 1.76 Gy for active bone marrow depending upon the primary cancer treatment site. We successfully traced 97% of the patients, but we found that patient survival was poor and that chemotherapy was not confirmable in a quarter of the patients. Based on our findings from the international survey and the feasibility study, we conclude that a large investigation could detect a fivefold or higher leukemia risk, but would be inadequate to evaluate the risk of solid cancers with long latent periods and therefore would likely not be informative with respect to neutron-related cancer risk in humans.

Objective: To investigate risk factors for medullary thyroid cancer (MTC). Methods: We conducted a pooled analysis of 14 case–control studies from Europe, North America, and Asia, including 67 medullary cancers (43 women and 24 men) diagnosed in ten studies. Of the original 4776, we selected five controls per case matched on study, gender, and age. The pooled odds ratios (OR) were estimated using conditional logistic regression. Results: Education, weight, and body mass were not associated with MTC, but a significant positive relationship was seen with height (OR = 2.6 for highest vs lowest tertile). Significant excess risks were associated with a history of thyroid nodules (OR = 12), hypertension (OR = 2.3), gallbladder disease (OR = 4.3), and allergies (OR = 2.2). Among current smokers, a decreased risk of MTC was observed with increasing number of cigarettes. The risk was significantly elevated among women having a first birth after age 25 years, but no clear pattern emerged for other reproductive factors. Conclusions: Although the number of MTC was small, we detected several significant associations, including prior thyroid and other diseases.

Objective: Several studies have suggested that patients with acromegaly have an increased risk of benign and malignant neoplasms, especially of the colon. To further investigate this relationship we evaluated cancer risk in population-based cohorts of acromegaly patients in Sweden and Denmark. Methods: Nationwide registry-based cohorts of patients hospitalized for acromegaly (Denmark 1977–1993; Sweden 1965–1993) were linked to tumor registry data for up to 15–28 years of follow-up, respectively. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to estimate cancer risk among 1634 patients with acromegaly. Results: The patterns of cancer risk in Sweden and Denmark were similar. After excluding the first year of follow-up, 177 patients with acromegaly had a diagnosis of cancer compared with an expected number of 116.5 (SIR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.3–1.8). Increased risks were found for digestive system cancers (SIR = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.6–2.7), notably of the small intestine (SIR = 6.0, 95% CI = 1.2–17.4), colon (SIR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.6–3.8), and rectum (SIR = 2.5, 95% CI = 1.3–4.2). Risks were also elevated for cancers of the brain (SIR = 2.7, 95% CI = 1.2–5.0), thyroid (SIR = 3.7, 95% CI = 1.8–10.9), kidney (SIR = 3.2, 95% CI = 1.6–5.5), and bone (SIR = 13.8, 95% CI = 1.7–50.0). Conclusions: The increased risk for several cancer sites among acromegaly patients may be due to the elevated proliferative and anti-apoptotic activity associated with increased circulating levels of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1). Pituitary irradiation given to some patients may have contributed to the excess risks of brain tumors and thyroid cancer. Our findings indicate the need for close medical surveillance of patients with acromegaly, and further studies of the IGF-1 system in the etiology of various cancers.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between cruciferous and other vegetables and thyroid cancer risk we systematically reanalyzed the original data from 11 case–control studies conducted in the US, Asia, and Europe.

Summary. In the 1940s and 1950s, over 20,000 children in Israel were treated for tinea capitis (scalp ringworm) by irradiation to induce epilation. Follow-up studies showed that the radiation exposure was associated with the development of malignant thyroid neoplasms. Despite this clear evidence of an effect, the magnitude of the dose-response relationship is much less clear because of probable errors in individual estimates of dose to the thyroid gland. Such errors have the potential to bias dose-response estimation, a potential that was not widely appreciated at the time of the original analyses. We revisit this issue, describing in detail how errors in dosimetry might occur, and we develop a new dose-response model that takes the uncertainties of the dosimetry into account. Our model for the uncertainty in dosimetry is a complex and new variant of the classical multiplicative Berkson error model, having components of classical multiplicative measurement error as well as missing data. Analysis of the tinea capitis data suggests that measurement error in the dosimetry has only a negligible effect on dose-response estimation and inference as well as on the modifying effect of age at exposure.

Objective: To better understand the role of fish and shellfish on thyroid cancer risk, we systematically re-analyzed the original data from 13 case–control studies conducted in the US, Japan, China, and Europe. Methods: A total of 2497 cases (2023 women, 474 men) and 4337 controls (3268 women, 1069 men) were considered. Odds ratio (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated for each study by logistic regression models, conditioned on age and sex, and adjusted for history of goiter, thyroid nodules or adenomas, and radiation. Combined ORs were computed as the weighted average of the estimates from each study. Results: The ORs for the highest level of total fish consumption (three or more times per week) as compared to the lowest one (less than once per week) was above unity in Hawaii, Connecticut, Japan, Norway, Tromso, and Vaud. Conversely, the ORs for the studies in Los Angeles, Shanghai, southeastern Sweden, Uppsala, northern Sweden, northern Italy, and Athens were below one. The pattern of risk for salt water fish and shellfish was not substantially different from that of total fish. Fish was not associated with thyroid cancer risk in all studies combined (OR=0.99, 95% CI 0.85–1.2 for moderate, and OR=0.88, 95% CI 0.71–1.1 for high total fish consumption), but there was a suggestion of a protective effect in endemic goiter areas (OR=0.65, 95% CI 0.48–0.88). Conclusion: This combined analysis indicates that relatively elevated fish consumption does not appreciably increase thyroid cancer risk, and may have a favorable influence in areas where iodine deficiency is, or was, common.

Background Several studies have shown that Catholic nuns have a different mortality experience than women of similar age in the general population. We had a unique opportunity to evaluate mortality patterns of nuns identified in an occupational study of nearly 145,000 radiologic technologists (73% female). Methods A total of 1,103 women were classified as nuns based on their titles of ‘‘Sister’’ or ‘‘SR’’. Their mortality experience was compared to other female radiologic technologists and to U.S. white females. Results Five hundred eighty-three nuns (53%) were deceased as of January 1, 1995. Compared to other technologists, nuns were at significantly increased risk of dying from all causes (Standardized mortality ratio (SMR)a 1.1; 95% Confidence interval (CI)a 1.0‐1.2, stomach cancer (SMRa 2.7; 95% CIa 1.2‐5.4), diabetes (SMRa 2.2; 95% CIa 1.0‐4.1), ischemic heart disease (SMRa 1.2; 95% CIa 1.1‐1.4), all digestive diseases (SMRa 2.0; 95% CIa 1.3‐3.0), and gastric and duodenal ulcers (SMRa 8.3; 95% CIa 2.3‐21.3). In contrast, we observed a significant deficit in lung cancer (SMRa 0.5; 95% CIa 0.2‐0.9), no deaths from cervical cancer, and a breast cancer risk 10% lower than expected (SMRa 0.9; 95% CIa 0.6‐1.3). When compared to U.S. females, nuns experienced significantly reduced mortality from all causes (SMRa 0.8; 95% CIa 0.7‐0.9), cervical cancer (SMRa 0.0; 95% CIa 0.0‐0.7), all endocrine, metabolic and nutritional diseases (SMRa 0.5; 95% CIa 0.3‐0.9), all circulatory diseases (SMRa 0.7; 95% CIa 0.7‐0.8) including ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, and all respiratory diseases (SMRa 0.5; 95% CIa 0.3‐0.8), and a nearly significant deficit of diabetes (SMRa 0.6; 95% CIa 0.3‐1.0). In contrast, nuns had an almost 3-fold greater risk of tuberculosis (SMRa 2.9; 95% CIa 1.4‐5.3) and a 20% excess of breast cancer (SMRa 1.2; 95% CIa 0.8‐1.7). The breast cancer excess was concentrated among nuns first certified before 1940 (SMRa 2.0; CIa 1.3‐ 3.0), when radiation doses were possibly the highest, but the risk did not increase with increasing length of certification. Conclusions Compared with the general population, the mortality experience of nuns was favorable and reflected the ‘‘healthy worker effect’’ commonly seen in occupational studies. Patterns observed for breast and cervical cancer possibly indicate differences in reproductive and sexual activities associated with belonging to a religious order. The possibility of a radiation-related excess for breast cancer among nuns certified before 1940 cannot be completely discounted, although there was no dose-response relationship

BACKGROUND. In the treatment of prostate carcinoma, radiotherapy and surgery are common choices of comparable efficacy; thus a realistic comparison of the potential long term sequelae, such as the risk of second malignancy, may be of relevance to treatment choice. METHODS. Data regarding the rate of incidence from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program cancer registry (1973‐1993) were used to compare directly second malignancy risks in 51,584 men with prostate carcinoma who received radiotherapy (3549 of whom developed second malignancies) with 70,539 men who underwent surgery without radiotherapy (5055 of whom developed second malignancies). Data were stratified by latency period, age at diagnosis, and site of the second malignancy. Directly comparing the risks in the radiotherapy group with those in the surgery group largely avoids problems associated with underreporting second malignancies. RESULTS. Radiotherapy for prostate carcinoma was associated with a small, statistically significant increase in the risk of solid tumors (6%; P 5 0.02) relative to treatment with surgery. Among patients who survived for $ 5 years, the increased relative risk reached 15%, and was 34% for patients surviving $ 10 years. The most significant contributors to the increased risk in the irradiated group were carcinomas of the bladder, rectum, and lung, and sarcomas within the treatment field. No significant increase in rates of leukemia was noted. CONCLUSIONS. Radiotherapy for prostate carcinoma was associated with a statistically significant, although fairly small, enhancement in the risk of second solid tumors, particularly for long term survivors. The pattern of excess second malignancies among men treated with radiotherapy was consistent with radiobiologic principles in terms of site, dose, and latency. In absolute terms, the estimated risk of developing a radiation-associated second malignancy was 1 in 290 for all prostate carcinoma patients treated with radiotherapy, increasing to 1 in 70 for long term survivors ($ 10 years). Improvements in radiotherapeutic techniques, along with diagnosis at younger ages and earlier stages, are resulting in longer survival times for patients with prostate carcinoma. Because of the long latency period for radiation-induced tumors, this may result in radiation-related second malignancy risk becoming a more significant issue. Cancer 2000;88:398 ‐ 406. © 2000 American Cancer Society.

Objective: To assess the relation between anthropometric factors and thyroid cancer risk in a pooled analysis of individual data from 12 case–control studies conducted in the US, Japan, China and Europe.

A cohort of 968 Israeli women treated with radiotherapy for infertility was followed up for cancer incidence. The majority of the subjects were irradiated to both the ovaries and the pituitary gland. Mean doses to the brain, colon, ovary and bone marrow were 0. 8, 0.6, 1.0 and 0.4 Gy, respectively. More than 10 years after radiation treatment, 60 cancers were observed compared with 74.5 expected based on national cancer incidence rates (standardized incidence ratio 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.61-1.04). No statistically significant excess or deficit was seen for any individual type of cancer; however, a non-significant 60% increased risk of colon cancer was observed. Risk of colon cancer was higher among women with 2 or more treatments and increased with length of follow-up. A decreased risk of breast cancer was suggested. Neither age at exposure nor attained age modified subsequent cancer risk. No clear excess of any cancer site was observed among women at organ doses above the median compared with subjects at doses below the median, except a slight increase in colon cancer. No significant excess incidence of cancer was demonstrated in this small cohort of patients treated with radiotherapy for infertility. Our results are consistent with those from an earlier study of cancer mortality among women receiving radiotherapy for infertility conducted in New York City. Int. J. Cancer 82:795-798, 1999. Published 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Objective: To obtain more precise estimates of the association between thyroid cancer and benign thyroid diseases and to elucidate the role of potential confounders or effect modifiers.