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In 1997–1998, the Netherlands experienced a large epidemic of classical swine fever (CSF). The magnitude of this epidemic stressed the role information systems could play in supporting the management during an eradication campaign. The enforcement of an eradication strategy can become very complicated, especially with large epidemics, due to time pressure and many different procedures that have to be executed at the same time. The application of comprehensive information systems may result in more control over the process and in a relief of the operational management. After a brief description of the Dutch epidemic the authors provide an overview and the general application of four different types of information systems, classified as decision support systems. The application of these information systems in animal disease control is illustrated by providing concepts for a system architecture for transaction processing, management and executive information support and decision support. The application of a data warehouse as part of this systems architecture is explained. The eradication of CSF from the Netherlands was complicated by several factors. It is important to notice that information systems cannot prevent these factors. However, information systems can support disease control authorities in controlling these factors.

Abstract The recent bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in Western Europe struck hard. Controlling the infection was difficult and a good and safe vaccine was not available until the spring of 2008. Little was known regarding BTV transmission in Western Europe or the efficacy of control measures. Quantitative details on transmission are essential to assess the potential and efficacy of such measures. To quantify virus transmission between herds, a temporal and a spatio-temporal analysis were applied to data on reported infected herds in 2006. We calculated the basic reproduction number between herds (Rh: expected number of new infections, generated by one initial infected herd in a susceptible environment). It was found to be of the same order of magnitude as that of an infection with Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in The Netherlands, e.g. around 4. We concluded that an average day temperature of at least 15°C is required for BTV-8 transmission between herds in Western Europe. A few degrees increase in temperature is found to lead to a major increase in BTV-8 transmission. We also found that the applied disease control (spatial zones based on 20 km radius restricting animal transport to outside regions) led to a spatial transmission pattern of BTV-8, with 85% of transmission restricted to a 20 km range. This 20 km equals the scale of the protection zones. We concluded that free animal movement led to substantial faster spread of the BTV-8 epidemic over space as compared to a situation with animal movement restrictions.

Abstract Background In August 2006 a major epidemic of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV8) started off in North-West Europe. In the course of 2007 it became evident that BTV8 had survived the winter in North-West Europe, re-emerged and spread exponentially. Recently, the European Union decided to start vaccination against BTV8. In order to improve the understanding of the epidemiological situation, it was necessary to execute a cross-sectional serological study at the end of the BT vector season. Cattle were the target species for cross-sectional serological studies in Europe at the end of 2006 and 2007. However, there was no information on the BTV8-seroprevalence in sheep and goats. Results On the basis of our cross-sectional study, the estimated seroprevalence of BTV8-exposed locations in the Netherlands in 2006 was 0% for goats (95% confidence interval: 0 – 5.6%) and 7.0% for sheep (95% confidence interval: 3.5 – 12.9%). The estimated seroprevalence of BTV-8 exposed locations in 2007 was 47% for goats (95% confidence interval: 36 – 58%) and 70% for sheep (95% confidence interval: 63 – 76%). There was a wide range in within-location seroprevalence in locations with goats and sheep (1 – 100%). A gradient in seroprevalence was seen, with the highest level of seroprevalence in the southern Netherlands, the area where the epidemic started in 2006, and a decreasing seroprevalence when going in a northern direction. Conclusion There is a much higher estimated seroprevalence of locations with goats exposed to BTV8 than can be inferred from the rather low number of reported clinical outbreaks in goats. This is probably due to the fact that clinical signs in infected goats are far less obvious than in sheep. The wide range in within-location seroprevalence observed means that the proportion of animals protected in 2008 by a natural infection in 2006 and/or 2007 can differ highly between flocks. This should be taken into account when vaccinating animals.

Abstract Background In the recent past, the introduction of Classical Swine Fever Virus (CSFV) followed by between-herd spread has given rise to a number of large epidemics in The Netherlands and Belgium. Both these countries are pork-exporting countries. Particularly important in these epidemics has been the occurrence of substantial "neighborhood transmission" from herd to herd in the presence of base-line control measures prescribed by EU legislation. Here we propose a calculation procedure to map out "high-risk areas" for local between-herd spread of CSFV as a tool to support decision making on prevention and control of CSFV outbreaks. In this procedure the identification of such areas is based on an estimated inter-herd distance dependent probability of neighborhood transmission or "local transmission". Using this distance-dependent probability, we derive a threshold value for the local density of herds. In areas with local herd density above threshold, local transmission alone can already lead to epidemic spread, whereas in below-threshold areas this is not the case. The first type of area is termed 'high-risk' for spread of CSFV, while the latter type is termed 'low-risk'. Results As we show for the case of The Netherlands, once the distance-dependent probability of local transmission has been estimated from CSFV outbreak data, it is possible to produce a map of the country in which areas of high-risk herds and of low-risk herds are identified. We made these maps even more informative by estimating border zones between the two types of areas. In these border zones the risk of local transmission of infection to a nearby high-risk area exceeds a certain level. Conclusion The risk maps provide an easily understandable visualization of the spatial heterogeneities in transmission risk. They serve as a tool for area-specific designs of control strategies, and possibly also for spatial planning of areas where livestock farming is allowed. Similar risk maps can in principle be constructed for other highly-transmissible livestock infections that spread via neighborhood transmission.

Avian influenza viruses from wild birds can cause outbreaks in poultry, and occasionally infect humans upon exposure to infected poultry. Identification and characterization of viral reservoirs and transmission routes is important to develop strategies that prevent infection of poultry, and subsequently virus transmission between poultry holdings and to humans. Based on spatial, temporal and phylogenetic analyses of data generated as part of intense and large-scale influenza surveillance programs in wild birds and poultry in the Netherlands from 2006 to 2011, we demonstrate that LPAIV subtype distribution differed between wild birds and poultry, suggestive of host-range restrictions. LPAIV isolated from Dutch poultry were genetically most closely related to LPAIV isolated from wild birds in the Netherlands or occasionally elsewhere in Western Europe. However, a relatively long time interval was observed between the isolations of related viruses from wild birds and poultry. Spatial analyses provided evidence for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) being more abundant near primary infected poultry farms. Detailed year-round investigation of virus prevalence and wild bird species distribution and behavior near poultry farms should be used to improve risk assessment in relation to avian influenza virus introduction and retarget avian influenza surveillance programs.

Understanding the context and drivers of farmers' decision-making is critical to designing successful voluntary disease control interventions. This study uses a questionnaire based on the Reasoned Action Approach framework to assess the determinants of farmers' intention to participate in a hypothetical reactive vaccination scheme against Bluetongue. Results suggest that farmers' attitude and social pressures best explained intention. A mix of policy instruments can be used in a complementary way to motivate voluntary vaccination based on the finding that participation is influenced by both internal and external motivation. Next to informational and incentive-based instruments, social pressures, which stem from different type of perceived norms, can spur farmers' vaccination behaviour and serve as catalysts in voluntary vaccination schemes., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The light trap is the tool of choice for conducting large-scale Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) vector surveillance programmes. Its efficacy is in doubt, however. To assess this, hourly changes in Culicoides activity over the 24-h diel were determined comparatively by way of light trapping and aerial sweeping, and correlated against light intensity. In the Netherlands, sweeping around cattle at pasture revealed that, in early summer, Culicoides are active throughout the diel, and that their abundance peaks during the crepuscular period and falls to a low during the brightest hours of the day. By contrast, the light trap was able to accumulate Culicoides only at night (i.e. after illuminance levels had dropped to 0 lux and midge activity had begun to decline). Although Culicoides chiopterus and species of the Culicoides obsoletus complex were similarly abundant around livestock, they differed critically in their hours of peak activity, being largely diurnal and nocturnal, respectively. This polarity helps to explain why, routinely, the C. obsoletus complex dominates light trap collections and C. chiopterus does not. Inability to accumulate Culicoides at light intensity levels above 0 lux means that, at ever-higher latitudes, particularly beyond 45° N, the progressive northward lengthening of the twilight period will have an increasingly adverse impact upon the efficacy of the light trap as a vector surveillance tool., (© 2015 The Royal Entomological Society.)

Preparedness against vector-borne threats depends on the existence of a long-term, sustainable surveillance of vector-borne disease and their relevant vectors. This work reviewed the availability of such surveillance systems in five European countries (Denmark, France, The Netherlands, Sweden and United Kingdom, part of the CoVetLab network). A qualitative assessment was then performed focusing on surveillance directed particularly to BTV-8. Information regarding surveillance activities were reviewed for the years 2008 and 2012. The results were then complemented with a critical scoping review of the literature aimed at identifying disease surveillance strategies and methods that are currently suggested as best suited to target vector-borne diseases in order to guide future development of surveillance in the countries in question. Passive surveillance was found to be efficient for early detection of diseases during the early phase of introduction into a free country. However, its value diminished once the disease has been established in a territory. Detection of emerging diseases was found to be very context and area specific, and thus active surveillance designs need to take the available epidemiological, ecological and entomological information into account. This was demonstrated by the effectiveness of the bulk milk surveillance in detecting the first case in Sweden, highlighting the need for output based standards to allow the most effective, context dependent, surveillance strategies to be used. Preparedness was of fundamental importance in determining the timeliness of detection and control in each country and that this in turn was heavily influenced by knowledge of emerging diseases in neighboring countries. Therefore it is crucial to share information on outbreaks between researchers and decision-makers and across borders continuously in order to react timely in case of an outbreak. Furthermore, timely reaction to an outbreak was heavily influenced by availability of control measures (vaccines), which is also strengthened if knowledge is shared quickly between countries. The assessment of the bluetongue surveillance in the affected countries showed that the degree of voluntary engagement varied, and that it is important to engage the public by general awareness and dissemination of results. The degree of engagement will also aid in establishing a passive surveillance system., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) host preferences and attack rates were quantified in early summer at a dairy farm in the Netherlands using livestock tethered at pasture. Midges were aspirated hourly over seven consecutive hours (17:00-23:00) from a dairy cow, a Shetland pony, and a sheep and correspondingly yielded seventeen, thirteen, and nine species. Of the 14,181 midges obtained, approximately 95% belonged to the C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi, C. chiopterus, and C. punctatus that together include all proven or potential vectors for arboviral diseases in livestock in northwestern Europe. On average, 7.6 and 3.5 times more Culicoides were collected, respectively, from the cow and the Shetland pony than from the sheep. In descending order of abundance, the C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi, and C. chiopterus dominated attacks on all three hosts, whereas C. punctatus and C. pulicaris favored only the two larger hosts. Irrespective of the host species involved, the three body regions attracted the same component species, C. chiopterus favoring the legs, C. punctatus and C. achrayi the belly, and the C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi, and C. pulicaris the head, back, and flanks. That known and potential vectors for animal diseases feed indiscriminately on a broad range of mammal hosts means that all major livestock species, including equines, are rendered susceptible to one or more Culicoides-borne pathogens., (© 2015 The Society for Vector Ecology.)

In intra-EU trade, the health status of animals is warranted by issuing a health certificate after clinical inspection in the exporting country. This certificate cannot provide guarantee of absence of infection, especially not for diseases with a long incubation period and no overt clinical signs such as bovine tuberculosis (bTB). The Netherlands are officially free from bTB since 1999. However, frequent reintroductions occurred in the past 15 years through importation of infected cattle. Additional testing (AT) of imported cattle could enhance the probability of detecting an imported bTB infection in an early stage. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of risk-based AT for bTB in cattle imported into The Netherlands. A generic stochastic import risk model was developed that simulates introduction of infection into an importing country through importation of live animals. Main output parameters are the number of infected animals that is imported (Ninf), the number of infected animals that is detected by testing (Ndet), and the economic losses incurred by importing infected animals (loss). The model was parameterized for bTB. Model calculations were optimized to either maximize Ndet or to minimize loss. Model results indicate that the risk of bTB introduction into The Netherlands is very high. For the current situation in which Dutch health checks on imported cattle are limited to a clinical inspection of a random sample of 5-10% of imported animals, the calculated annual Ninf=99 (median value). Random AT of 8% of all imported cattle results in Ndet=7 (median value), while the median Ndet=75 if the sampling strategy for AT is optimized to maximize Ndet. However, in the latter scenario, loss is more than twice as large as in the current situation, because only calves are tested for which cost of detection is higher than the expected gain of preventing a possible outbreak. When optimizing the sampling strategy for AT to minimize loss, only breeding and production cattle are selected for AT resulting in Ndet=1 (median value). Loss is; however, reduced by 75% if compared to the current situation. We conclude that the effectiveness of AT can greatly be improved by risk-based sampling. The optimal sampling strategy for risk-based AT for bTB is highly dependent on the objective of AT. If economic losses are to be contained, AT should focus on breeding and production cattle originating from high-risk countries., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Orthobunyaviruses belonging to the Simbu sero-group occur worldwide, including the newly recognized Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in Europe. These viruses cause congenital malformations and reproductive losses in ruminants. Information on the presence of these viruses in Africa is scarce and the origin of SBV is unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of antibodies against SBV and closely related viruses in cattle in Tanzania, and their possible association with reproductive disorders., Results: In a cross-sectional study, serum from 659 cattle from 202 herds collected in 2012/2013 were analyzed using a commercial kit for SBV ELISA, and 61 % were positive. Univariable logistic regression revealed significant association between ELISA seropositivity and reproductive disorders (OR = 1.9). Sera from the same area collected in 2008/2009, before the SBV epidemic in Europe, were also tested and 71 (54.6 %) of 130 were positive. To interpret the ELISA results, SBV virus neutralization test (VNT) was performed on 110 sera collected in 2012/2013, of which 51 % were positive. Of 71 sera from 2008/2009, 21 % were positive. To investigate potential cross reactivity with related viruses, 45 sera from 2012/2013 that were positive in SBV ELISA were analyzed in VNTs for Aino, Akabane, Douglas, Peaton, Sabo, SBV, Sathuperi, Shamonda, Simbu and Tinaroo viruses. All 45 sera were positive for one or more of these viruses. Twenty-nine sera (64.4 %) were positive for SBV, and one had the highest titer for this virus., Conclusions: This is the first indication that Aino, Akabane, Douglas, Peaton, Sabo, SBV, Sathuperi, Shamonda and Tinaroo viruses circulate and cause negative effect on reproductive performance in cattle in Tanzania. SBV or a closely related virus was present before the European epidemic. However, potential cross reactivity complicates the interpretation of serological studies in areas where several related viruses may circulate. Virus isolation and molecular characterization in cattle and/or vectors is recommended to further identify the viruses circulating in this region. However, isolation in cattle is difficult due to short viremic period of 2 to 6 days, and isolation in vectors does not necessarily reflect the situation in cattle.

Phylogenetic analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus strains causing outbreaks in Dutch poultry farms in 2014 provides evidence for separate introduction of the virus in four outbreaks in farms located 16-112 km from each other and for between-farm transmission between the third and fourth outbreak in farms located 550 m from each other. In addition, the analysis showed that all European and two Japanese H5N8 virus strains are very closely related and seem to originate from a calculated common ancestor, which arose between July and September 2014. Our findings suggest that the Dutch outbreak virus strain 'Ter Aar' and the first German outbreak strain from 2014 shared a common ancestor. In addition, the data indicate that the Dutch outbreak viruses descended from an H5N8 virus that circulated around 2009 in Asia, possibly China, and subsequently spread to South Korea and Japan and finally also to Europe. Evolution of the virus seemed to follow a parallel track in Japan and Europe, which supports the hypothesis that H5N8 virus was exchanged between migratory wild waterfowl at their breeding grounds in Siberia and from there was carried by migrating waterfowl to Europe.

A total of 130 pools of Culicoides biting midges collected between May and September 2012 in the Netherlands were assayed for Schmallenberg virus (SBV). The Culicoides midges were caught in the same area as where in 2011 a high proportion of Culicoides pools tested positive for SBV, in majority with a high viral load (Ct values between 20 and 30). Two of a total of 42 pools comprising 50 midges/pool of the Obsoletus complex from the 2012 collection tested weak positive (Ct values: 34.96 and 37.66), indicating a relatively low viral load. On an individual midge level, the proportion of SBV-infected Culicoides of the Obsoletus complex caught in the same area and in a comparable period of the year was significantly lower in 2012 (0.1% = 1 per 1050 tested) compared with 2011 (0.56% = 13 per 2300 tested)., (© 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.)

Vector-borne animal diseases pose a continuous and substantial threat to livestock economies around the globe. Increasing international travel, the globalisation of trade, and climate change are likely to play a progressively more important role in the introduction, establishment and spread of arthropod-borne pathogens worldwide. A review of the literature reveals that many climatic variables, functioning singly or in combination, exert varying effects on the distribution and range of Culicoides vector midges and mosquitoes. For example, higher temperatures may be associated with increased insect abundance--thereby amplifying the risk of disease transmission--but there are no indications yet of dramatic shifts occurring in the geographic range of Culicoides midges. However, the same cannot be said for mosquitoes: over the last few decades, multiple Asian species have established themselves in Europe, spread and are unlikely to ever be eradicated. Research on how insects respond to changes in climate is still in its infancy. The authors argue that we need to grasp how other annectant changes, such as extremes in precipitation (drought and flooding), may affect the dispersal capability of mosquitoes. Models are useful for assessing the interplay between mosquito vectors expanding their range and the native flora and fauna; however, ecological studies employing classical mark-release-recapture techniques remain essential for addressing fundamental questions about the survival and dispersal of mosquito species, with the resulting parameters fed directly into new-generation disease transmission models. Studies on the eventual impact of mosquitoes on animal and human health should be tackled through large-scale integrated research programmes. Such an approach calls for more collaborative efforts, along the lines of the One Health Initiative.

In studies on Culicoides attacking livestock in the Netherlands, we chanced upon a species of the Obsoletus complex that we do not recognize, but whose dark wing pattern is distinctive. Nine cytochrome c oxidase (CO1) sequences of our so-called 'dark obsoletus' support its status as a separate species, the sequences differing significantly from those representing Culicoides obsoletus (Meigen) (90-91% homology) and Culicoides scoticus Downes & Kettle (87-88% homology). In the last decade, several research groups in Europe have encountered 'mystery species' related to C. obsoletus and in some instances have made their sequences for various genetic loci available in GenBank. These include a CO1 series submitted from Sweden in 2012 (annotated as 'obsoletus 01, 02, or 03 MA-2012') and of which some share a 99% identity with our sequences for 'dark obsoletus'. Without doubt, the series from the Netherlands, along with a portion of the Swedish submissions, together represent a single species ('dark obsoletus'). Whether this species is referable to the Russian Culicoides gornostaevae Mirzaeva recorded recently from Norway, Sweden and Poland, and based solely upon the external morphology of the male, is not clear. The presence in Western Europe of multiple undescribed species related to C. obsoletus means that the taxonomy of this important vector complex is not fully resolved; consequently, we know little about these cryptic species with regard to seasonality, geographic range and host preference. This is undesirable given that Culicoides-borne arboviruses causing disease in livestock are moving more regularly out of the tropics and spreading north into temperate latitudes., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

In response to the Bluetongue disease epidemic in 2006-2007, Germany started in 2008 a country-wide mandatory vaccination campaign. By 2009 the number of new outbreaks had decreased so that vaccination became voluntary in 2010. We conducted a questionnaire survey in cattle and sheep farms in three German federal states, namely North-Rhine Westphalia, Rhineland Palatinate and Saxony-Anhalt to estimate the vaccination uptake in 2010, the intention to vaccinate in 2011 and the main determinants of refusal or acceptance to do so. The results showed that 42.8% (40.6-45.1) of the cattle farmers and 33.8% (31.8-35.8) of the sheep farmers had their animals vaccinated in 2010, whereas 40.7% (38.5-43.0) of cattle and 37.93% (35.8-40.1) sheep farmers expressed their intention to vaccinate in 2011. The main reasons mentioned for having animals vaccinated against BTV-8 were ability to export animals, prevention of production losses, subsidized vaccination, and recommendation by the veterinarian. Motives for refusing vaccination were presumed low risk of infection, costs, absence of clinical BT symptoms, presumed negative cost-benefit ratio, and negative experience with previous vaccination events (side effects). We assume that in order to increase farmers' motivation to have their animals immunized against BTV-8, (1) the vaccination needs to be subsidized, (2) combined vaccines with several different BT serotypes or even other diseases should be available and (3) farmers need to be better informed about the safety and benefit of vaccination., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Current knowledge does not allow the prediction of when low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) of the H5 and H7 subtypes infecting poultry will mutate to their highly pathogenic phenotype (HPAIV). This mutation may already take place in the first infected flock; hence early detection of LPAIV outbreaks will reduce the likelihood of pathogenicity mutations and large epidemics. The objective of this study was the development of a model for the design and evaluation of serological-surveillance programmes, with a particular focus on early detection of LPAIV infections in layer chicken flocks. Early detection is defined as the detection of an infected flock before it infects on average more than one other flock (between-flock reproduction ratio Rf<1), hence a LPAI introduction will be detected when only one or a few other flocks are infected. We used a mathematical model that investigates the required sample size and sampling frequency for early detection by taking into account the LPAIV within- and between-flock infection dynamics as well as the diagnostic performance of the serological test used. Since layer flocks are the target of the surveillance, we also explored whether the use of eggs, is a good alternative to sera, as sample commodity. The model was used to refine the current Dutch serological-surveillance programme. LPAIV transmission-risk maps were constructed and used to target a risk-based surveillance strategy. In conclusion, we present a model that can be used to explore different sampling strategies, which combined with a cost-benefit analysis would enhance surveillance programmes for low pathogenic avian influenza., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Surveillance for new emerging animal diseases from a European perspective is complicated by the non-harmonised approach across Member States for data capture, recording livestock populations and case definitions. In the summer of 2011, a new vector-borne Orthobunyavirus emerged in Northern Europe and for the first time, a coordinated approach to horizon scanning, risk communication, data and diagnostic test sharing allowed EU Member States to develop early predictions of the disease, its impact and risk management options. There are many different systems in place across the EU for syndromic and scanning surveillance and the differences in these systems have presented epidemiologists and risk assessors with concerns about their combined use in early identification of an emerging disease. The emergence of a new disease always will raise challenging issues around lack of capability and lack of knowledge; however, Schmallenberg virus (SBV) gave veterinary authorities an additional complex problem: the infection caused few clinical signs in adult animals, with no indication of the possible source and little evidence about its spread or means of transmission. This paper documents the different systems in place in some of the countries (Germany and the Netherlands) which detected disease initially and predicted its spread (to the UK) and how information sharing helped to inform early warning and risk assessment for Member States. Microarray technology was used to identify SBV as a new pathogen and data from the automated cattle milking systems coupled with farmer-derived data on reporting non-specific clinical signs gave the first indications of a widespread issue while the UK used meteorological modelling to map disease incursion. The coordinating role of both EFSA and the European Commission were vital as are the opportunities presented by web-based publishing for disseminating information to industry and the public. The future of detecting emerging disease looks more positive in the light of this combined approach in the EU., (Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Host preference is an important determinant of feeding behaviour in biting insects and a critical component in the transmission of vector-borne diseases. The aim of the study was to quantify Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) host preferences and biting rates using tethered livestock at pasture (a dairy cow and a sheep) and to compare the numbers of biting midges aspirated off them to those captured simultaneously in a black-light suction trap acting as a surrogate host. Culicoides collections were made hourly over seven hours (from five hours before official sunset to two hours after) between 27 May and 19 June, 2013 at a dairy farm (eastern Netherlands). The study involved 13 replicates of a site × host randomised design. Culicoides collected by black-light suction trap and by direct aspiration were identified to species morphologically and age-graded. The C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi and C. pulicaris predominated on the back and flanks of the animals, C. punctatus on the belly, and C. chiopterus on the legs. Using comparable collection periods, 9.3 times (95% confidence interval: 8.6-10.0) more Culicoides were caught on the cow than on the sheep and 25.4 times (95% confidence interval: 18.4-35.1) less in the black-light suction trap compared to the sheep. Mean Culicoides biting rates on the cow across the 7-h collection period were 4.6, 3.5, 1.0, 1.0 and 0.5 min(-1) for C. dewulfi, the C. obsoletus complex, C. chiopterus, C. punctatus and C. pulicaris, respectively; for the sheep they were 0.6, 0.4 and 0.1 min(-1) for the C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi and C. punctatus, respectively. Though midges were aspirated off livestock during each of the seven hours, they only began to appear in the black-light suction trap 5h later, from sunset onwards. After sunset, its efficacy improved markedly, but occurred when midge activity overall had begun to decline. Though it was quite accurate in ranking Culicoides species abundance, the black-light suction trap proved to be of limited value for determining hours of peak biting activity, levels of abundance, and host preference, in Culicoides., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Two separate analyses were carried out to understand the epidemiology of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in 2007 in North West Europe: First, the temporal change in transmission rates was compared to the evolution of temperature during that season. Second, we evaluated the spatio-temporal dynamics of newly reported outbreaks, to estimate a spatial transmission kernel. For both analyses, the approach as used before in analysing the 2006 BTV-8 epidemic had to be adapted in order to take into account the fact that the 2007 epidemic was not a newly arising epidemic, but one advancing from whereto it had already spread in 2006. We found that within the area already affected by the 2006 outbreak, the pattern of newly infected farms in 2007 cannot be explained by between-farm transmission, but rather by local re-emergence of the virus throughout that region. This indicates that persistence through winter was ubiquitous for BTV-8. Just like in 2006, we also found that the temperature at which the infection starts to spread lies close to 15 °C. Finally, we found that the shape of the transmission kernel is in line with the one from the 2006 epidemic. In conclusion, despite the substantial differences between 2006 and 2007 in temperature patterns (2006 featured a heat wave in July, whereas 2007 was more regular) and spatial epidemic extent, both the minimum temperature required for transmission and the transmission kernel were similar to those estimated for the 2006 outbreak, indicating that they are robust properties, suitable for extrapolation to other years and similar regions.

In order to put a halt to the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in 2008, the European Commission promoted vaccination at a transnational level as a new measure to combat BTV-8. Most European member states opted for a mandatory vaccination campaign, whereas the Netherlands, amongst others, opted for a voluntary campaign. For the latter to be effective, the farmer's willingness to vaccinate should be high enough to reach satisfactory vaccination coverage to stop the spread of the disease. This study looked at a farmer's expected utility of vaccination, which is expected to have a positive impact on the willingness to vaccinate. Decision analysis was used to structure the vaccination decision problem into decisions, events and payoffs, and to define the relationships among these elements. Two scenarios were formulated to distinguish farmers' mindsets, based on differences in dairy heifer management. For each of the scenarios, a decision tree was run for two years to study vaccination behaviour over time. The analysis was done based on the expected utility criterion. This allows to account for the effect of a farmer's risk preference on the vaccination decision. Probabilities were estimated by experts, payoffs were based on an earlier published study. According to the results of the simulation, the farmer decided initially to vaccinate against BTV-8 as the net expected utility of vaccination was positive. Re-vaccination was uncertain due to less expected costs of a continued outbreak. A risk averse farmer in this respect is more likely to re-vaccinate. When heifers were retained for export on the farm, the net expected utility of vaccination was found to be generally larger and thus was re-vaccination more likely to happen. For future animal health programmes that rely on a voluntary approach, results show that the provision of financial incentives can be adjusted to the farmers' willingness to vaccinate over time. Important in this respect are the decision moment and the characteristics of the disease. Farmers' perceptions of the disease risk and about the efficacy of available control options cannot be neglected., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Palaearctic Culicoides midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) represent a vital link in the northward advance of certain arboviral pathogens of livestock such as that caused by bluetongue virus. The effects of relevant ecological factors on weekly Culicoides vector abundances during the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemics in the Netherlands in 2007 and 2008 were quantified within a hurdle modelling framework. The relative role of meteorological parameters showed a broadly consistent association across species, with larger catches linked to temperature-related variables and lower wind speed. Moreover, vector abundance was found to be influenced by edaphic factors, likely related to species-specific breeding habitat preferences that differed markedly amongst some species. This is the first study on Culicoides vector species in the Netherlands identified during an entomological surveillance programme, in which an attempt is made to pinpoint the factors that influence midge abundance levels. In addition to providing key inputs into risk-mitigating tools for midge-borne pathogens and disease transmission models, the adoption of methods that explicitly address certain features of abundance datasets (frequent zero-count observations and over-dispersion) helped enhance the robustness of the ecological analysis., (© 2013 The Royal Entomological Society.)

Background: Schmallenberg virus (SBV) has swept through the major part of Europe in the period 2011-2013. A vaccine against SBV has been developed and may be a possible preventive instrument against infection. Presently, there is no data available to refute the assumption that natural SBV infection results in long-term immunity. In that respect, it is of interest to know how long (protecting) virus-neutralizing antibodies are present in naturally infected animals. New-born calves acquire passive immunity from their dams by ingestion and absorption of antibodies present in colostrum, which can block the production of serum antibodies when vaccine is administered to calves with maternally derived antibodies. In that respect, it is useful to know how long it takes for maternal antibodies against SBV to disappear in young animals born from infected dams., Results: Longitudinal whole-herd serological monitoring using virus neutralization test (VNT) indicated that 80% of adult dairy cows still had measurable antibodies against SBV at least 24 months after the estimated introduction of the virus into the herd. Median 2Log VNT titer of the adult dairy cows (≥1 year) dropped from 8.6 to 5.6 in a period of 17 months. Median 2Log VNT maternal antibodies titers of calves sampled within 30 days after birth was 8. Calves lost their maternally-derived antibodies after 5-6 months. There was a definite positive relationship between the VNT titer of the dam and the VNT titer of the corresponding calf (age ≤ 30 days) of dam-calf combinations sampled on the same day: the higher the VNT titer of the dam, the higher the VNT titer (maternal antibodies) of the calf., Conclusions: Our field data support the assumption that natural SBV infection in adult cows results in persistence of specific antibodies for at least two years. Based on the observed decay of maternally-derived antibodies in calves, it is presumed safe to vaccinate calves against SBV at an age of approximately 6 months.

In the past decade, two pathogens transmitted by Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), bluetongue virus and Schmallenberg virus, have caused serious economic losses to the European livestock industry, most notably affecting sheep and cattle. These outbreaks of arboviral disease have highlighted large knowledge gaps on the biology and ecology of indigenous Culicoides species. With these research gaps in mind, and as a means of assessing what potential disease outbreaks to expect in the future, an international workshop was held in May 2013 at Wageningen University, The Netherlands. It brought together research groups from Belgium, France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom and The Netherlands, with diverse backgrounds in vector ecology, epidemiology, entomology, virology, animal health, modelling, and genetics. Here, we report on the key findings of this workshop.

During the northern Europe epidemic of bluetongue (BT), Onderstepoort-type blacklight traps were used to capture Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) biting midges weekly between November 2006 and December 2008 on 21 livestock farms in the Netherlands. Proven and potential vectors for the bluetongue virus (BTV) comprised almost 80% of the midges collected: the Obsoletus complex, constituting C. obsoletus (Meigen) and C. scoticus Downes & Kettle (44.2%), C. dewulfi Goetghebuer (16.4%), C. chiopterus (Meigen) (16.3%) and C. pulicaris (Linnaeus) (0.1%). Half of the 24 commonest species of Culicoides captured completed only one (univoltine) or two (bivoltine) generations annually, whereas multivoltine species (including all BTV vectors) cycled through five to six generations (exceeding the one to four generations calculated in earlier decades). Whether this increment signals a change in the phenology of northern Europe Culicoides or simply is an adaptive response that manifests during warmer episodes, thus heightening periodically the incursive potential of midge-borne arboviruses, remains to be clarified. Culicoides duddingstoni Kettle & Lawson, C. grisescens Edwards, C. maritimus Kieffer, C. pallidicornis Kieffer and C. riethi Kieffer are new records for the biting midge fauna of the Netherlands. It is suggested that C. punctatus (Meigen) be added to the European list of vector Culicoides., (© 2013 The Royal Entomological Society.)

This study aimed at estimating the Schmallenberg virus (SBV) seroprevalence in dairy heifers, non-dairy adult cattle, sheep and goats in the Netherlands after cessation of SBV transmission at the end of 2011. Archived serum samples from ruminants submitted to the GD Animal Health Service for monitoring purposes between November 2011 and March 2012 were selected and tested for presence of SBV-specific antibodies using an in-house ELISA. Animal seroprevalences were estimated at 63.4% in dairy heifers, 98.5% in adult non-dairy cattle, 89.0% in sheep and 50.8% in goats. Multivariable analyses were carried out to describe the relationship between potential risk factors and the ELISA outcome S/P%. The overall SBV seroprevalence in ruminants and ruminant herds in the Netherlands at the end of 2011 was high, with considerable differences between species and farm types. No gradient spatial pattern in final seroprevalence could be detected and therefore no suggestions about the site of introduction and spread of SBV in the Netherlands in 2011 could be made. In dairy heifers, it was shown that S/P% increased with age. In sheep, S/P% was lower in animals located in the coastal area. Whether herds were located near the German border did not affect the S/P% in sheep nor in dairy heifers. An attempt was made to gain insight in the spatiotemporal introduction of SBV in the Netherlands in 2011, by testing sheep serum samples from 2011. A seroprevalence of about 2% was found in samples from April, June and July 2011, but the ELISA positive samples could not be confirmed in a virus neutralization test. A clear increase in seroprevalence started at August 2011. From mid-August 2011 onwards, seropositive samples were confirmed positive by virus neutralization testing. This indicated the start of the epidemic, but without a clear spatial pattern., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

To determine which species of Culicoides biting midges carry Schmallenberg virus (SBV), we assayed midges collected in the Netherlands during autumn 2011. SBV RNA was found in C. scoticus, C. obsoletus sensu stricto, and C. chiopterus. The high proportion of infected midges might explain the rapid spread of SBV throughout Europe.

Background: Targeted risk-based surveillance of poultry types (PT) with different risks of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIv) infection may improve the sensitivity of surveillance., Objective: To quantify the rate of introduction of LPAIv infections in different PT., Methods: Data from the Dutch LPAIv surveillance programme (2007-2010) were analysed using a generalised linear mixed and spatial model., Results: Outdoor-layer, turkey, duck-breeder and meat-duck, farms had a 11, 8, 24 and 13 times higher rate of introduction of LPAIv than indoor-layer farms, respectively., Conclusion: Differences in the rate of introduction of LPAIv could be used to (re)design a targeted risk-based surveillance programme., (© 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.)

The continuing circulation of African swine fever (ASF) in Russia and in the Trans-Caucasian countries has led to increased efforts in characterizing the epidemiology of ASF. For a better insight in epidemiology, quantitative data on virus excretion is required. Until now, excretion data has mainly focused on the initial stages of the disease. In our study we have studied ASF virus (ASFV) excretion dynamics in persistently infected animals. For this purpose, virus excretion through different routes was quantified over 70 days after infection. Three virus isolates of moderate virulence were used: the Brazil'78, the Malta'78 (a low and a high inoculation dose) and the Netherlands'86 isolate. For each isolate or dose, 10 animals were used. All (Brazil'78 group), or three animals per group were inoculated and the other animals served as contact animals. It was shown that dose (Malta'78 low or high) or infection route (inoculated or naturally infected) did not influence the ASFV excretion (p>0.05). Nasal, ocular and vaginal excretions showed the lowest ASFV titres. Virus was consistently present in the oropharyngeal swabs, showing two peaks, for up to 70 days. Virus was occasionally present in the faeces, occasionally with very high titres. Viral DNA persisted in blood for up to 70 days. The results presented in this study show that a high proportion of persistently infected animals shed virus into the environment for at least 70 days, representing a possible risk for transmission and that should be considered in future epidemiological analysis of ASF., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Even though low pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIv) affect the poultry industry of several countries in the world, information about their transmission characteristics in poultry is sparse. Outbreak reports of LPAIv in layer chickens have described drops in egg production that appear to be correlated with the virus transmission dynamics. The objective of this study was to use egg production data from LPAIv infected layer flocks to quantify the within-flock transmission parameters of the virus. Egg production data from two commercial layer chicken flocks which were infected with an H7N3 LPAIv were used for this study. In addition, an isolate of the H7N3 LPAIv causing these outbreaks was used in a transmission experiment. The field and experimental estimates showed that this is a virus with high transmission characteristics. Furthermore, with the field method, the day of introduction of the virus into the flock was estimated. The method here presented uses compartmental models that assume homogeneous mixing. This method is, therefore, best suited to study transmission in commercial flocks with a litter (floor-reared) housing system. It would also perform better, when used to study transmission retrospectively, after the outbreak has finished and there is egg production data from recovered chickens. This method cannot be used when a flock was affected with a LPAIv with low transmission characteristics (R(0)<2), since the drop in egg production would be low and likely to be confounded with the expected decrease in production due to aging of the flock. Because only two flocks were used for this analysis, this study is a preliminary basis for a proof of principle that transmission parameters of LPAIv infections in layer chicken flocks could be quantified using the egg production data from affected flocks., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Infections with Schmallenberg virus (SBV) are associated with congenital malformations in ruminants. Because reporting of suspected cases only could underestimate the true rate of infection, we conducted a seroprevalence study in the Netherlands to detect past exposure to SBV among dairy cattle. A total of 1,123 serum samples collected from cattle during November 2011-January 2012 were tested for antibodies against SBV by using a virus neutralization test; seroprevalence was 72.5%. Seroprevalence was significantly higher in the central-eastern part of the Netherlands than in the northern and southern regions (p<0.001). In addition, high (70%-100%) within-herd seroprevalence was observed in 2 SBV-infected dairy herds and 2 SBV-infected sheep herds. No significant differences were found in age-specific prevalence of antibodies against SBV, which is an indication that SBV is newly arrived in the country.

Low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIv) infections of H5 and H7 subtypes in poultry are notifiable to the OIE, hence surveillance programmes are implemented. The rate at which LPAIv strains spread within a flock determines the prevalence of infected birds and the time it takes to reach that prevalence and, consequently, optimal sample size and sampling frequency. The aim of this study was to investigate the transmission characteristics of an H7N7 and an H5N7 LPAIv in layer chickens. Two transmission experiments were performed, which consisted of 30 (first experiment) and 20 (second experiment) pairs of conventional layers, respectively. At the start of the experiments, one chicken per pair was inoculated with LPAIv and the other chicken was contact-exposed. Occurrence of infection was monitored by regularly collecting tracheal and cloacal swab samples, which were examined for the presence of virus RNA by RT-PCR. The results of the test were used to estimate the transmission rate parameter (β), the infectious period (T) and the basic reproduction ratio (R(0)). In addition, egg production and virus shedding patterns were quantified. For the H7N7 virus, the β, T and R(0) estimates were 0.10 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.04-0.18) day(-1), 7.1 (95% CI: 6.5-7.8) days and 0.7 (95% CI: 0.0-1.7), respectively. With the H5N7 virus, only a few inoculated chickens (5 out of 20) became infected and no transmission was observed. This study shows that transmission characteristics of LPAIv strains may vary considerably, which has to be taken into account when designing surveillance programmes., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Experience with recent large-scale epidemics of Classical Swine Fever and Avian Influenza--among others in the Netherlands--have teached us several lessons that should prepare us better for future outbreaks. Among others, improving early detection of outbreaks--by using syndrome surveillance systems--is a key factor, in which farmers and veterinary practitioners have an imminent role. A major step in this respect is facilitation of the use of exclusion diagnostics without closing down the farm in clinical situations with non-specific clinical signs observed in sick animals. The hesitance of farmers and veterinary practitioners to report a suspect clinical situation on a livestock farm and how to facilitate that process is another major issue. Furthermore, the importance of communication between the field and the laboratory with respect to post mortem examination will be highlighted, and the need for outbreak simulation exercises with neighbouring countries in order to be better prepared, will be discussed.

Estimates of the per-contact probability of transmission between farms of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus of H7N7 subtype during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands are important for the design of better control and biosecurity strategies. We used standardized data collected during the epidemic and a model to extract data for untraced contacts based on the daily number of infectious farms within a given distance of a susceptible farm. With these data, we used a maximum likelihood estimation approach to estimate the transmission probabilities by the individual contact types, both traced and untraced. The estimated conditional probabilities, conditional on the contact originating from an infectious farm, of virus transmission were: 0.000057 per infectious farm within 1 km per day, 0.000413 per infectious farm between 1 and 3 km per day, 0.0000895 per infectious farm between 3 and 10 km per day, 0.0011 per crisis organisation contact, 0.0414 per feed delivery contact, 0.308 per egg transport contact, 0.133 per other-professional contact and, 0.246 per rendering contact. We validate these outcomes against literature data on virus genetic sequences for outbreak farms. These estimates can be used to inform further studies on the role that improved biosecurity between contacts and/or contact frequency reduction can play in eliminating between-farm spread of the virus during future epidemics. The findings also highlight the need to; 1) understand the routes underlying the infections without traced contacts and, 2) to review whether the contact-tracing protocol is exhaustive in relation to all the farm's day-to-day activities and practices.

Background: As low pathogenic avian influenza viruses can mutate into high pathogenic viruses the Dutch poultry sector implemented a surveillance system for low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) based on blood samples. It has been suggested that egg yolk samples could be sampled instead of blood samples to survey egg layer farms. To support future decision making about AI surveillance economic criteria are important. Therefore a cost analysis is performed on systems that use either blood or eggs as sampled material., Methodology/principal Findings: The effectiveness of surveillance using egg or blood samples was evaluated using scenario tree models. Then an economic model was developed that calculates the total costs for eight surveillance systems that have equal effectiveness. The model considers costs for sampling, sample preparation, sample transport, testing, communication of test results and for the confirmation test on false positive results. The surveillance systems varied in sampled material (eggs or blood), sampling location (farm or packing station) and location of sample preparation (laboratory or packing station). It is shown that a hypothetical system in which eggs are sampled at the packing station and samples prepared in a laboratory had the lowest total costs (i.e. € 273,393) a year. Compared to this a hypothetical system in which eggs are sampled at the farm and samples prepared at a laboratory, and the currently implemented system in which blood is sampled at the farm and samples prepared at a laboratory have 6% and 39% higher costs respectively., Conclusions/significance: This study shows that surveillance for avian influenza on egg yolk samples can be done at lower costs than surveillance based on blood samples. The model can be used in future comparison of surveillance systems for different pathogens and hazards.

The transmissibility of an H7N1 Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) virus isolated from a turkey flock during the large epidemic in Italy in 1999, was experimentally studied in chickens. Four group transmission experiments were performed. Infection and transmission were monitored by means of virus isolation on swab samples and antibody detection in serum samples. From the results of these groups, we estimated the mean infectious period at 7.7 (6.7-8.7) days, the transmission rate parameter at 0.49 (0.30-0.75) infections per infectious chicken per day and the basic reproduction ratio at 3.8 (1.3-6.3). These estimates can be used for the development of surveillance and control programmes of LPAI in poultry., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus that is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). In 2006, the introduction of BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) caused a severe epidemic in Western and Central Europe. The principal effective veterinary measure in response to BT was believed to be vaccination accompanied by other measures such as movement restrictions and surveillance. As the number of vaccine doses available at the start of the vaccination campaign was rather uncertain, the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality and the Dutch agricultural industry wanted to evaluate several different vaccination strategies. This study aimed to rank eight vaccination strategies based on their efficiency (i.e. net costs in relation to prevented losses or benefits) for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in 2008., Methodology/principal Findings: An economic model was developed that included the Dutch professional cattle, sheep and goat sectors together with the hobby farms. Strategies were evaluated based on the least cost - highest benefit frontier, the benefit-cost ratio and the total net returns. Strategy F, where all adult sheep at professional farms in The Netherlands would be vaccinated was very efficient at lowest costs, whereas strategy D, where additional to all adult sheep at professional farms also all adult cattle in the four Northern provinces would be vaccinated, was also very efficient but at a little higher costs. Strategy C, where all adult sheep and cattle at professional farms in the whole of The Netherlands would be vaccinated was also efficient but again at higher costs., Conclusions/significance: This study demonstrates that a financial analysis differentiates between vaccination strategies and indicates important decision rules based on efficiency.

The aim of this study was to identify difficulties and barriers to reporting clinically suspect situations, possibly caused by avian influenza (AI), and to explore possible incentives to reporting such situations, with the ultimate aim of facilitating early detection of AI outbreaks. Focus group sessions were held with policy-makers from the competent authority, representatives of veterinary practitioners and poultry farmers. Personal interviews with a group of poultry farmers and practitioners were held to ascertain the difficulties and barriers they perceived and their proposed solutions. An electronic questionnaire was put on the websites of a poultry farmer union and the Royal Dutch Veterinary Association to investigate perceptions and attitudes concerning AI-suspect situations in The Netherlands. Six themes emerged identifying factors that hinder the reporting of a clinically suspect situation: lack of knowledge and uncertainty about clinical signs of AI; guilt, shame and prejudice; negative opinion of control measures; dissatisfaction with post-reporting procedures; lack of trust in veterinary authorities; lack of transparency in reporting procedures and uncertainty about the notification process. Recommendations to facilitate early detection of AI are discussed.

The aim of this study was to identify limitations and incentives in reporting clinically suspect situations, possibly caused by classical swine fever (CSF), to veterinary authorities with the ultimate aim to facilitate early detection of CSF outbreaks. Focus group sessions were held with policy makers from the veterinary authorities, and representatives of veterinary practitioners and pig farmer unions. Personal interviews with a small group of pig farmers and practitioners were held to check limitations raised and solutions proposed during the focus group sessions. An electronic questionnaire was mailed to pig farmers and practitioners to investigate perceptions and attitudes with respect to clinically suspect situations possibly caused by CSF. After triangulating the responses of veterinary authorities, veterinary practitioners and farmers, six themes emerged across all groups: (1) lack of knowledge on the early signs of CSF; (2) guilt, shame and prejudice; (3) negative opinion on control measures; (4) dissatisfaction with post-reporting procedures; (5) lack of trust in government bodies; (6) uncertainty and lack of transparency of reporting procedures. The following solutions to facilitate early detection of CSF were put forward: (a) development of a clinical decision-support system for vets and farmers, in order to get faster diagnosis and detection of CSF; (b) possibility to submit blood samples directly to the reference laboratory to exclude CSF in a clinical situation with non-specific clinical signs, without isolation of the farm and free of charge for the individual farmer; (c) decrease social and economic consequences of reporting CSF, for example by improving the public opinion on first reports; (d) better schooling of veterinary officers to deal with emotions and insecurity of farmers in the process after reporting; (e) better communication of rules and regulations, where to report, what will happen next; (f) up-to-date website with information and visual material of the clinical signs of CSF., (Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Emergency vaccination is an effective control strategy for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemics in densely populated livestock areas, but results in a six-month waiting period before exports can be resumed, incurring severe economic consequences for pig exporting countries. In the European Union, a one-month waiting period has been discussed based on negative test results in a final screening. The objective of this study was to analyze the risk of exporting FMD-infected pig carcasses from a vaccinated area: (1) directly after final screening and (2) after a six-month waiting period. A risk model has been developed to estimate the probability that a processed carcass was derived from an FMD-infected pig (P(carc)). Key variables were herd prevalence (P(H)), within-herd prevalence (P(A)), and the probability of detection at slaughter (P(SL)). P(H) and P(A) were estimated using Bayesian inference under the assumption that, despite all negative test results, > or =1 infected pigs were present. Model calculations indicated that P(carc) was on average 2.0 x 10(-5) directly after final screening, and 1.7 x 10(-5) after a six-month waiting period. Therefore, the additional waiting time did not substantially reduce P(carc). The estimated values were worst-case scenarios because only viraemic pigs pose a risk for disease transmission, while seropositive pigs do not. The risk of exporting FMD via pig carcasses from a vaccinated area can further be reduced by heat treatment of pork and/or by excluding high-risk pork products from export.

After a massive epidemic of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) among ruminants in 2006-2007 in the European Union (EU), the Netherlands started a voluntary emergency vaccination campaign in May 2008, subsidized by the EU. At the start of a new campaign in 2009, without subsidized vaccination, we investigated by mail survey the motives of farmers and hobby holders to vaccinate against BTV-8 in 2008 and 2009. Mean vaccine uptake in 2008 was: 73% in sheep, 71% in cattle, 43% in goat farms and 67% in hobby holdings. Top-5 motives pro-vaccination were: prevention of production loss; subsidized vaccination; recommendation by practitioner; welfare reasons; contribution to the eradication campaign. Top-5 motives against vaccination were: vaccination costs; absence of clinical BT-problems; presumed low infection risk; balance between vaccination costs and loss without vaccination; bad experience with earlier vaccination campaigns. Willingness to vaccinate was significantly lower in 2009: 42% in sheep, 58% in cattle, 19% in goat farms and 49% in hobby holdings. Measures to stimulate vaccination among those that did not want to vaccinate in 2009 were: subsidized vaccination; possibility to vaccinate their own animals; more information on efficacy/safety of vaccine and why animals had to be vaccinated again; availability of a BT vaccine combined with vaccine(s) against other diseases., (Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Since 2003, Member States (MS) of the European Union (EU) have implemented serosurveillance programmes for low pathogenic notifiable avian influenza (LPNAI) in poultry. To date, there is the need to evaluate the surveillance activity in order to optimize the programme's surveillance design., Objectives: To evaluate MS sampling operations [sample size and targeted poultry types (PTs)] and its relation with the probability of detection and to estimate the PTs relative risk (RR) of being infected., Methods: Reported data of the surveillance carried out from 2005 to 2007 were analyzed using: (i) descriptive indicators to characterize both MS sampling operations and its relation with the probability of detection and the LPNAI epidemiological situation, and (ii) multivariable methods to estimate each PTs RR of being infected., Results: Member States sampling a higher sample size than that recommended by the EU had a significantly higher probability of detection. Poultry types with ducks & geese, game-birds, ratites and "others" had a significant higher RR of being seropositive than chicken categories. The seroprevalence in duck & geese and game-bird holdings appears to be higher than 5%, which is the EU-recommended design prevalence (DP), while in chicken and turkey categories the seroprevalence was considerably lower than 5% and with that there is the risk of missing LPNAI seropositive holdings., Conclusion: It is recommended that the European Commission discusses with its MS whether the results of our evaluation calls for refinement of the surveillance characteristics such as sampling frequency, the between-holding DP and MS sampling operation strategies.

This study calculates the financial consequences of the bluetongue serotype 8 (BTV8) epidemics of 2006 and 2007 in the Netherlands. We constructed a deterministic economic model that is compatible with the Dutch livestock production systems for cattle, sheep and goats. Two hundred cattle farms and 270 sheep farms were infected with BTV8 in the epidemic of 2006, whereas 30,417 cattle farms, 45,022 sheep farms and 35,278 goat farms were estimated to be infected in the epidemic of 2007. The net costs (costs minus benefits) of the BTV8 epidemic of 2006 (BT2006) was estimated at 32.4 million Euros. The net costs of the BTV8 epidemic of 2007 (BT2007) was valued at 164-175 million Euros, depending on the mortality and morbidity rates for cattle used. The losses account for 2%, 10% and 11% of the gross value of the primary production within Dutch pasture-based livestock farming that equals 1.6 billion Euros. Control measures accounted for 91% of the net costs of the BT2006, while diagnostic costs represented 7%. By contrast, for the BT2007 92% of the net costs were in the form of production losses and veterinary treatment fees, while only 6% were related to control measures. Furthermore, the control costs dropped from 29,630 in BT2006 to 10,990 in BT2007 mainly due to the costly indoor housing that was not obligatory during the BT2007 epidemic. The cattle sector suffered 88% and 85% of the net costs for the BT2006 and BT2007, respectively; the highest of all sectors.

A major epidemic of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) occurred in Western Europe in 2006. During 2007 it became evident that BTV-8 had survived the winter and a re-emerging epidemic quickly developed. The objective of this study was to describe the severity and clinical impact of the BTV-8 epidemic in 2007 in The Netherlands in laboratory-confirmed outbreaks and to compare this with the situation in 2006. The relative frequency of clinical signs in BTV-8 affected sheep flocks and cattle herds in 2007 and 2006 was similar. The most prominent changes were a higher proportion of sheep flocks with lameness and a much higher proportion of cattle herds reporting a decrease in milk yield in 2007. BTV-8 associated morbidity and mortality incidence rates in sheep flocks and cattle herds were significantly (P<0.001) higher in 2007 than in 2006. Both in sheep flocks and cattle herds, BTV-8 associated case fatality was significantly (P<0.001) lower in 2007, which was probably due to better medical treatment of sick animals. There were significantly (P<0.001) more fertility problems associated with BTV-8 infection in outbreak cattle herds in 2007 compared to 2006.

Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R₀, can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R₀ maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provides a tool for gauging the extent of environmental effects on disease emergence. The method involves integrating vector-abundance data with statistical approaches to predict abundance from satellite imagery and with the biologically mechanistic modelling that underlies R₀. We illustrate the method with three applications for bluetongue virus in the Netherlands: 1) a simple R₀ map for the situation in September 2006, 2) species-specific R₀ maps based on satellite-data derived predictions, and 3) monthly R₀ maps throughout the year. These applications ought to be considered as a proof-of-principle and illustrations of the methods described, rather than as ready-to-use risk maps. Altogether, this is a first step towards an integrative method to predict risk of establishment of diseases based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system that may comprise climatic variables, landscape features, land use, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for bluetongue as well as of other emerging vector-borne diseases.

Swine can be infected with classical swine fever virus (CSFV), as well as ruminant pestiviruses: bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), and Border disease virus (BDV). Cross-reactions between pestiviruses occur, both regarding protective immunity and in diagnostic tests. The presence of BVDV and BDV in a swine population may thus affect the transmission of CSFV, but also the diagnosis of a CSFV infection. In this study, the seroprevalence against BVDV and BDV in two categories of swine, sows and finishing pigs, in the Netherlands was determined. Furthermore, several risk factors, associated with the presence of swine and ruminants on the same farm or in the immediate surroundings, were evaluated. In sows, the seroprevalence against BVDV was 2.5% on the animal level, and 11.0% on herd level. In finishing pigs these prevalences were 0.42% and 3.2%, respectively. Antibodies against BDV were found in three sows only. Risk factors, associated with a BVDV-seropositive status in breeding pigs, were the presence of cattle on the same premises and a high density of sheep and/or goats herds in a radius of 3km. While BVDV and BDV hardly pose any threat to the swine population themselves, knowledge, and therefore regular monitoring, on the presence of these viruses in the swine population is important with respect to CSF eradication. It will allow for a better interpretation of diagnostic test results, both in terms of possible false positives and false negatives, but may also bring about additional measures or surveillance protocols in times of CSF outbreaks to avoid surprises caused by cross-reactivity with ruminant pestiviruses.

Starting August 2006, a major epidemic of bluetongue (BT) was identified in North-West Europe, affecting The Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg and the North of France. It was caused by BT virus serotype 8 (BTV-8), a serotype previously unknown to the European Union (EU). In this outbreak, the virus caused clinical disease in a few individual animals within cattle herds, whereas overt clinical disease was usually restricted to sheep. Investigations in Belgium suggested that the first clinical signs of BTV-8 appeared mid July 2006 in a cattle herd, while the first suspicion of a BT-outbreak in Belgium was reported on 17 August 2006. In the first 10 BTV-8 outbreaks in the Netherlands, the owners indicated that the first clinical signs started approximately 12-17 days before a suspicion was reported to the veterinary authorities via a veterinary practitioner. In BTV-8 affected sheep flocks, erosions of the oral mucosa, fever, salivation, facial and mandibular oedema, apathy and tiredness, mortality, oedema of the lips, lameness, and dysphagia were among the most frequent clinical signs recorded. The most prominent clinical signs in BTV-8 affected cattle herds were: crusts/lesions of the nasal mucosa, erosions of lips/crusts in or around the nostrils, erosions of the oral mucosa, salivation, fever, conjunctivitis, coronitis, muscle necrosis, and stiffness of the limbs. Crusts/lesions of nasal mucosa, conjunctivitis, hyperaemic/purple coloration and lesions of the teats, and redness/hypersensitivity of the skin were relatively more seen on outbreak farms with cattle compared to sheep. Mortality, oedema of the head and ears, coronitis, redness of the oral mucosa, erosions/ulceration of tongue mucosa, purple coloration of the tongue and tongue protrusion and dyspneu were relatively more seen on outbreak farms with sheep compared to cattle.