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The article is devoted to the analysis of the political situation in the European Union, focusing on changes in support for left-wing parties in the context of global challenges. Transformations in the electoral preferences of EU citizens caused by economic and political turmoil and international conflicts are considered. The main focus is on the growing popularity of radical left populist parties. The analysis shows that traditional left-wing parties are losing support due to insufficiently radical proposals, which leads to fragmentation of their electorate. Radicalization of political sentiment is seen as a serious challenge, as radical movements are less predictable and can create political instability in the region. In this regard, analysts are faced with the question of possible changes in the political landscape, which is especially important in the context of tense international relations and sanctions pressure on Russia. The author emphasizes the need to understand political changes and forecast their consequences in order to develop effective electoral forecasts. The article considers the main results of the 2024 European Parliament elections, their impact on electoral preferences and changes in the EU political landscape. The theoretical approaches and empirical studies of leading domestic and foreign scholars in the field of studying party systems are analyzed, which allows us to assess current and future trends in European politics. The work also touches upon the issues of uniting left-wing forces in opposition to right-wing parties, as well as possible scenarios for the development of the political situation in the European Parliament and its impact on international relations and interstate interaction.

Being one of the strategically important regions for the development of the Russian Federation and a variety of aspects of its security, the Arctic represents a platform for defending the country’s national priorities. The nature of the policy pursued in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation determines the status of the state as an Arctic power. Therefore, the aim of the study was to investigate the electoral preferences and to design the electoral model of the residents of the Russian Arctic in the gubernatorial elections in the period from 2013 to 2022. By means of multifactor comparative analysis using the clustering methodology, the author managed to determine such variables for the construction of the electoral model of a resident of the Russian Arctic zone as the level of electoral activity, voting for typical and atypical candidates and for the conditionally designated candidate “against all” as a marker of legitimate support for registered candidates and/or protest voting. The study revealed that, unlike the other federal subject’s voters, residents of the Russian Arctic take a more active part in the election of the head of the region, providing electoral support to the candidates of the “United Russia”, although in some cases atypical voting was observed, the percentage of which was insignificant. At the same time, the data obtained show that the number of invalid ballots is higher in the Arctic regions than in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Thus, the constructed model of electoral behavior of the resident of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation in the implementation of regional policy in the region allows taking into account not only quantitative, but also qualitative parameters of electoral preferences of the Arctic residents to predict the results of future elections.

Objective/context: In this article, we explore the determinants of voter preference for Gustavo Petro in the first round of the 2022 presidential election in Colombia. Methodology: Using a series of quantitative tools, we explore the variables associated with a preference for Gustavo Petro. We establish two groups of variables: personal and contextual, and preferences on economic and social issues (issues), and establish their relative weight as determinants of the closeness between Petro and his voters. Conclusions: We found that voters chose candidate Petro based on the satisfaction of their most important preferences, particularly regarding economic issues, and downplayed their differences with the candidate on issues related to individual liberties. Originality: This work presents original data collected during the 2022 presidential campaign and uses a combination of quantitative tools to estimate the determinants of preferences for Petro.

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Aim. To identify the features of the manifestation of electoral preferences of the Russian citizens during the period of political turbulence.Methodology. The study used the method of secondary data analysis, the method of comparative analysis, methods of grouping and systematization.Results. A close relationship between voters’ preferences and the psychological state of society has been revealed. It has been established that political turbulence and the specifics of the citizens’ political culture are the most important factors which determine the peculiarities of the political preferences of Russians in general and the electoral preferences in particular.Research implication. The results obtained are important for the development of the theory of political preferences. They can be used by political parties in conducting election campaigns at various levels.

Copyright of Colombia Internacional is the property of Universidad de los Andes and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article analyzes the influence of the EU party-voter distance on party support moderated by the impact of EU salience. To this goal, we focus on the party-voter dyad and we analyze patterns of EU issue voting in first-order national elections in five EU countries (Austria, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands) between 2017 and 2018. We make use of a combination of data from CHES and a public opinion survey to construct the distance measures, and a mix of CHES and Twitter data to measure EU salience. We show that voters are mobilized on the EU, with EU party positions operating as a driving factor of the voting preferences of the electorate and EU salience moderating this relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contributing to the emerging debate on non-resident citizens' electoral preferences, this article addresses how migratory contexts affect their propensity to vote for populists. Employing two original datasets with information of external voting results from Latin America and Southern Europe, this study suggests that while external voters are on average slightly less likely to vote for populists than domestic voters, this varies meaningfully from country to country. It depends on the type of populism, populists' incumbency, and the ideological preferences in the country of residence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article analyzes the ideological preferences of the residents of the Kaliningrad region through the prism of their socio-economic situation and political behavior. The study is based on the data of a formalized interview (N = 977) according to the age and sex sample, representing the population of four geodemographic districts of the Kaliningrad region. Based on the Nolan Chart, the study determines ideological types according to the respondents attitude to political and economic freedom. The statistical analysis of the data revealed a high degree of pluralism among the residents of the region on the issues under consideration. At the same time, it showcased the prevailing ideas of state regulation of the economy and values of personal freedom. Analyzing the socio-economic situation of the respondents and their inherent ideological attitudes, the author found that the values of economic freedom are more often shared by young people, middle-aged people, residents living in Kaliningrad, with higher income. Ideas of state regulation of the economy prevail among people of retirement and pre-retirement age, residents of the semi-periphery of the Kaliningrad region, with lower income. The study also revealed the relationship between the ideological attitudes of people in the region and their political behavior. In particular, it found that people who share the values of political and economic freedom are ready to take the most active part in protests. At the same time, the study did not identify any significant links between the ideological type of the respondents and their electoral behavior.

The COVID-19 epidemic has become a major challenge for Germany. The authors set a goal to analyze how the German government solves the problems facing the country at the national and European levels, as well as to identify how public attitudes are changing under the influence of the pandemic. In the first part the rate of spread of the pandemic and the effectiveness of German restrictive measures were analyzed. It was concluded that during the first period of the spread of the virus, optimistic assessments of its success in the fight against the pandemic prevailed in Germany, but during the second wave, the FRG authorities faced significant difficulties. The authors also looked in detail at the economic damage from the pandemic. The second part of the study is devoted to changing public attitudes in society. The authors research in detail how the pandemic affects electoral preferences and make predictions about the upcoming elections to the Bundestag. Particular attention is paid to the German policy against COVID-19 and minimizing the consequences of the pandemic at the European level. After the first isolationist reaction of the EU countries gave way to attempts to find a join set of measures, the FRG authorities are making significant efforts to come to a compromise that satisfies the majority of the members of the European Union.

The main objective of this work is to assess the influence of individuals living in neighboring territorial areas on each other in decision-making on the example of presidential election in Russia in 2018 using data on 2718 territorial election commissions (TECs). Local and global indicators of spatial autocorrelation (Moran, Geary, Getis-Ord indices) calculated by the authors provide empirical evidence of global positive autocorrelation (i.e. in the country as a whole voters in each TEC vote similar to their neighbors). We identify TECs that can be included in local clusters (where voters vote similar) or in local outliers (surrounded by such TECs where voters vote opposite. Using the example of Tatarstan, the region where both local cluster and outlier TECs were most common we analyzed which economic indicators together with spatial ones influence the support of the main and opposition candidates. It was shown that the willingness to vote for the main candidate is explained by the increase in salaries in the area, but at the same time the indicators of economic activity in that area and the potential mobility of citizens have a negative impact on the support of the main candidate. Salary changes have no effect on votes in favour of opposition candidates, while other indicators show an inverse correlation. We have also shown that spatial effect models are preferable to OLS models for analyzing voting results

Copyright of Political Science Review / Przegląd Politologiczny is the property of Faculty of Political Science & Journalism, Adam Mickiewicz University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

September 8 was a single voting day in Russia: 13 constituent entities of the Russian Federation elected deputies of state legislative bodies ; 19 constituent entities elected their heads . This was one of the main events of 2019 for the domestic political life of Russia, because the results of the elections, in fact, reflect the socio-political agenda of today; they show people’s attitude toward the political and economic course implemented by the Russian government and serve as a criterion for assessing its effectiveness. The following materials provide an analysis of the electoral preferences of Russians, manifested in the level of support for the head of state and reflecting the interests of the ruling elites of the United Russia party; in the dynamics of voter turnout in Russia and in the number of votes cast for parliamentary parties representing the systemic opposition. To obtain an objective “picture” of today, we analyse the results of the previous elections (2017–2018), as well as the last three elections to the State Duma (2007, 2011, 2016) and the presidential elections in which Vladimir Putin took part (2000, 2004, 2012, 2018)

The paper analyzes the preparation of German political parties for the elections to the European Parliament in 2019. The author identifies the main patterns of electoral behavior, studies the election programs and strategies of the parties represented in the Bundestag. This allows us to formulate a forecast of the election results in Germany and how they will affect the overall balance of power in the European Parliament. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the positions of government and opposition parties in relation to Russia, as well as the prospects of German politicians for key positions in Brussels after the elections.

The problem of impact resistant and variables of electoral properties of candidates for for voting behavior of voters. In particular, it is shown that all factors determining the voting behavior of voters are graded on a fi ed (internal), weakly dependent on agitation characteristics and properties and external candidates voting factors of choice are highly dependent on the impact of social and communication activities of election campaigns has been presented. The classification of models of electoral behavior of voters, the structure of its determination. The author’s defi tion of electoral candidate properties, including objective-personal and socio-political attributes through subjective reflection electorate gradually form a holistic perception of the candidate, thereby defining his image in the mind of the voter, which is the end product of the electoral impact of candidate properties for the target audience during campaigning has be given.

The author discusses different definitions of social justice related to equality of outcome and equality of opportunity. It is argued that, in the territorial perspective, public policy should aim at improving the equality of opportunity by means of reducing social exclusion rather than at fighting regional disparities in the standards of living. What is challenged is the interpretation of the relationship between political preferences and the core-periphery division of Poland into Northern and Western Territories on the one hand and Eastern and South-Eastern regions on the other, as presented by R. Perdał et al. (2020). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista de Sociologia e Política is the property of Revista de Sociologia e Politica and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The objective of this work includes the carrying out of a descriptive analysis of the industry of public opinion and market studies in Mexico, the main characteristics of the market from the perspective of supply and demand, as well as market segmentation by type of product. The implemented methodology consists of the application of in-depth interviews focused on various sectors, such as public servants, candidates in electoral elections, campaign advisers and strategists, academic experts, directors of areas of information management and research in the private sector, such as agency directors and independent consultants on market research and public opinion. The final result tries to offer a vision about the dimension, specialization and professionalization of this industry in constant growth in Mexico. They are presented to public opinion and market studies as an indispensable tool for information gathering, analysis and decision-making, which make it possible to measure the preferences of the plaintiffs in any field. In the same way that it shows, explains and analyzes what is the relationship and the degree of importance that emanate from them; Its importance lies in the fact that in recent years, they have come into force in various market segments, such as the electoral, public and private sectors, among others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of political activities, electoral processes are of interest for scientists, who usually tackle their research on this field from a social sciences perspective. Computational methods have been applied to predict the electoral preferences of voters in several countries; however, this has not happened in Mexico, at least as indicated by the absence in current scientific literature of computational studies to determine voting intentions of Mexican citizens. The authors of the present work aim at reverting such absence. The proposal of this paper consists of applying Computational Intelligence methods to automatically determine electoral preferences of Mexican voters. For this, data acquired by the Secretaría de Gobernación (Secretary of the Interior), about voting intentions of Mexican citizens in the 2012 elections are used. In the voter classification stage, a modified version of the Gamma Associative Classifier (MGAC) is used, given that this is one of the relevant models of the Associative approach to Pattern Classification. Additionally, Differential Evolution is employed to guide the process of relevant features selection. Results indicate that, when compared over six data sets extracted from the information published by the Secretaría de Gobernación, our proposal exhibits the best performance in three of these data sets, outperforming some of the best similar models present in the state of the art. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial temporal as well as structural and functional analyses of electoral activity were carried out in the paper. Electoral activity of the population was analyzed in terms of indicators of electoral potential, electoral turnout and electoral preferences. The dynamics of the electoral potential and its role in the all-Ukrainian scale have been analyzed. The level of electoral turnout was estimated and the main features of temporal and spatial distribution were found. The analyses of multicomponent systems of modern electoral preferences of the population in the region in terms of left and right political forces were carried out.

This paper uses analyses of commercial polls alongside content-analytic measures of sentiment in the content of nine newspapers to explore the relationship between voter preferences and the tone of news coverage in the 2016 presidential election campaign. Both media coverage and voter preferences reflected the effects of certain campaign events—the conventions and the initial Comey intrusion—and there also is evidence of a relationship between the two. Indeed, it appears that the media both led and followed public preferences throughout much of the campaign, though evidence of followership actually is more robust; and the final weeks of the campaign show little to no media effects at all. Results speak to the importance of considering media not just as a driver, but also a follower of public sentiment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reviewed monograph is a political analysis of the EU accession referendum and elections to the European Parliament in the Zachodniopomorskie and Lubuskie voivodeships as well as electoral preferences of the inhabitants of this region. A wide range of sources was used in the research: local press, printed institutional documents, political party programs, election committees, legal acts, internet sources as well as reports and interviews. The author of the reviewed book was interested not only in the course of the referendum campaigns, but also in their preparation, electoral staff work, electoral strategies of individual committees, and finally final results and their analysis. Key conclusions: (1) The inhabitants of Szczecin (including the entire electoral district no. 13) show permanent political preferences during particular elections to the European Parliament. Consistently, solid support is maintained by three parties: PO, PiS and SLD. (2) The electoral committees that support Poland's membership of the EU enjoy the greatest support in the surveyed region, although it should be noted that the dividing line runs between euroenthusiasts (PO and SLD) and eurorealists (PiS). (3) The election turnout in the next European Parliament elections in the studied area is consistently low and barely exceeds 20%, which proves the residents' little interest in this type of election, and indirectly in European affairs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the analysis of regional features of populist rhetoric realization as the basis of electorate mobilization. The motivational characteristics of electoral preferences are established, the strategy of populist policy in the Russian Federation is determined. The populist rhetoric defines policy as moral and ethical fight between the people and oligarchy. In electoral political space of modern Russia populism is considered in a negative connotation, it has manipulative impact on public consciousness of Russians, it forms political expectations and electoral preferences. In the analysis of regional electoral process it is necessary to consider a phenomenon of patronclient relations being a factor of electoral preferences which ensures the platform for forming the relations of domination, supremacy and subordination. In Russian electoral political space there are patriarchal, traditional, client-oriented, protest and marginal types of electoral behavior. The patriarchal (Republics of the North Caucasus, Siberia) and traditional (Saint Petersburg, Belgorod region) types create the conditions for populism use as it is easier for populists to win electorate of the senior generation which are committed to traditional values and customs. The political behavior of electorate is characterized by orientation to populist slogans of political leaders which are addressed to the axiological and emotional sphere. Expectations of the median Russian voter stipulate the tendency towards the perception of populism. The populist policy testifies to weakness of democratic institutes and deconsolidation of the public in an assessment of heuristic potential of populism. Populism in modern Russia is not articulated yet, and it does not represent complete ideology or the developed type of subjectivity. This phenomenon is often identified with the national will.

Analyzed in the article is German political party system after the 2013 Bundestag elections. The author studies results of the 2015 elections to the European Parliament and of2014-2015 elections to German federal legislative bodies. European elections are known to be the voters' second priority; but what role do they play for German citizens? The author reveals the voters' motives for taking part in elections and making corresponding decisions, which allows to describe the key patterns and trends of development of elections to the European Parliament. Special attention is paid to the role of smaller parties and assessment of FDP's possible retirement from the German federal political stage. Success of the new right-wing populist party «Alternative for Germany», which succeeded in getting seats not only in the European Parliament, but also in all legislative bodies in German lands where elections took place, makes one consider its prospects and consequences of its emergence for the German political party system. Since its best results were achieved in the East of the country, the article offers thorough analysis of the voters' behavior in so-called new lands. Elections in Hamburg and Bremen have always had special features. People in these lands are more eager to support social democrats, which was proved by the 2015 elections. Could the «choice of the big city» be considered to follow its own logic, and does the CDU have a chance to break this tradition? Attempting to answer with this question, the author turns to the results of a sociological study of the Adenauer Fund, which support the statement that it is the candidate's personality and not the party itself that plays decisive role in the party's victory. In conclusion, the author gives her own interpretation of features of the modern German political party system and a forecast of its future development.

In the regions where the democracies are dominant, the administrators are determined by the voters. During the realization of the elections, parameters such as voter preferences and inter-provincial spatial differences take a role in determining the votes of the parties. In this study, the effects of spatial differences on the general election results are measured by mentioning the relation of space with politics. In this context; the answers to the questions such as "Are voter preferences affected by spatial differences?" and "Are inter-provincial neighborhood relations reflected in voter preferences?" are tried to be explored. In the study, spatial weighting and neighborhood matrix calculations are made between provinces, and the degree of dependence between provinces is measured at the spatial level. Moran's I and Geary's C test statistics are used to measure the degree of spatial dependence. Accordingly, dependency levels of provinces are determined at the global and local levels. In the study, four different sub-disciplines such as election results, economic geography, political geography and spatial analysis are taken into consideration. Within the scope of the study, it is concluded that the voter preferences are affected to some extent by the spatial differences in the local and global levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzed in the article is German political party system after the 2013 Bundestag elections. The author studies results of the 2015 elections to the European Parliament and of2014-2015 elections to German federal legislative bodies. European elections are known to be the voters' second priority; but what role do they play for German citizens? The author reveals the voters' motives for taking part in elections and making corresponding decisions, which allows to describe the key patterns and trends of development of elections to the European Parliament. Special attention is paid to the role of smaller parties and assessment of FDP's possible retirement from the German federal political stage. Success of the new right-wing populist party «Alternative for Germany», which succeeded in getting seats not only in the European Parliament, but also in all legislative bodies in German lands where elections took place, makes one consider its prospects and consequences of its emergence for the German political party system. Since its best results were achieved in the East of the country, the article offers thorough analysis of the voters' behavior in so-called new lands. Elections in Hamburg and Bremen have always had special features. People in these lands are more eager to support social democrats, which was proved by the 2015 elections. Could the «choice of the big city» be considered to follow its own logic, and does the CDU have a chance to break this tradition? Attempting to answer with this question, the author turns to the results of a sociological study of the Adenauer Fund, which support the statement that it is the candidate's personality and not the party itself that plays decisive role in the party's victory. In conclusion, the author gives her own interpretation of features of the modern German political party system and a forecast of its future development.

This paper is concerned with Caplan’s (2000, 2001, 2006) rational irrationality model and its application on electoral preference formation. According to this model, individuals consume irrationality in a rational manner i.e. they maximize their total welfare through an exchange between their material and psychological welfare. Using the contributions of an important debate from the philosophy of economics regarding the imposition of ontological constraints on models, unrealistic assumptions and explanatory unification, two arguments are formulated: First, Caplan’s model is ontologically bewildered – it contains opposed statements about the psychological descriptiveness of rational irrationality. Second, even though Caplan is apparently aware of the tension between ontological and tractability considerations he seems to privilege the latter.

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The defeat of socialist candidate Salvador Allende (28.9%) to rightwing candidate Jorge Alessandri in the 1958 presidential election in Chile has been explained by the presence of an alternative leftwing candidate, the defrocked priest from Catapilco, Antonio Zamorano (3.3%). The belief is that, had Zamorano not entered the race, Allende would have won the first plurality and would have become President. After discussing the context of the 1958 presidential election and the growing electoral strength of the left, we briefly discuss the political trajectory of the Priest of Catapilco. With descriptive and inferential statistics at the municipal level, we fail to find conclusive evidence that Zamorano's support affected Allende more than Alessandri. Zamorano's support seemed to have come equally from the electoral bases of all other presidential candidates. There is no evidence to substantiate the claim that Zamorano was responsible for Allende's defeat in 1958. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Studia Socjologiczne is the property of Studia Socjologiczne and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) provide nonpartisan and interactive information during election campaigns, and match the policy demand of users with the political supply of parties. But do VAAs influence citizens' electoral decisions? Do they help the undecided to form a political preference, and lead the decided to change their vote choice? This article reports a randomized field experiment to evaluate the effect of the Vote Compass, a VAA used in Quebec, on users' electoral preferences. Given Quebec's multidimensional political space, VAAs have the potential to assist citizens in making a complex electoral decision. The results show that the VAA's users are more likely to form an electoral preference, but this is only the case in the short term among 30-year-olds, the higher educated, and more politically interested users. At the same time, using a VAA mostly impacts party preferences of voters in the short term: the politically uninterested and older users are more likely to change their party preferences, whereas 30-year-olds and politically interested users are less likely to change their initial party preference. This study provides evidence that the VAA cognitively engaged users, but not that it leads to vote switching on Election Day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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