Search

The observed winter Barents-Kara Sea ice concentration (BKS SIC) has shown a close association with the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of Eurasian winter surface air temperature (SAT) variability, known as Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern. However, the potential role of BKS SIC on this WACE pattern of variability and on its long-term trend remains elusive. Here, we show that from 1979 to 2022, the winter BKS SIC and WACE association is most prominent and statistically significant for the variability at the sub-decadal time scale for 5 to 6 years. We also show the critical role of the multi-decadal trend in the principal component of the WACE mode of variability for explaining the overall Eurasian winter temperature trend over the same period. Furthermore, a large multi-model ensemble of atmosphere-only experiments from 1979 to 2014, with and without the observed Arctic SIC forcing, suggests that the BKS SIC variations induce this observed sub-decadal variability and the multi-decadal trend in the WACE. Additionally, we analyse the model simulated first or the leading EOF mode of Eurasian winter SAT variability, which in observations, closely relates to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find a weaker association of this mode to AO and a statistically significant positive trend in our ensemble simulation, opposite to that found in observation. This contrasting nature reflects excessive hemispheric warming in the models, partly contributed by the modelled Arctic Sea ice loss.

The incorporation of silica nanoparticles (Si-NPs) into the polymer matrix is a growing area of interest research to produce high-performance polymer nanocomposites (NCs) across a wide range of nanotechnology applications. This improvement is due to the Si-NPs capability to self-assembly giving rise to specific well-organized structures with both short- and long-range order across a hierarchy of spatial scales, determined by both NP-NP and NP-matrix interactions, involving a careful balance among attractive driving forces, repulsive forces, and directional forces. Respect to this, the aim of the present paper is to systematically review the use of Si-NPs in polymer NCs and on the role of NPs self-assembly in determining the final material properties. Firstly, we explored the synthesis and modification of both isotropic and anisotropic Si-NPs in relation with use in NC materials, focusing on NPs dispersion and distribution, as well as on the functionalization strategies of Si-NPs. Besides Si-NPs functionalization with conventional small organic molecules, a large section is devoted to an emerging class of functionalized Si-NPs with macromolecules, namely silica hairy NPs (Si-HNPs), able to give rise a rich variety of complex assemblies and materials with new structures and functionalities. Successively, NCs materials containing Si-NPs and Si-HNPs have been explored in terms of synthetic preparation and properties. The self-organization of Si-NPs and Si-HNPs in polymer matrices has been reported and its effect on the functional materials properties have been evaluated with a critical point of view on the results, limits, and future perspectives. Our review can be considered a tutorial work, aiming at providing useful insights to researchers in the field of nanotechnology and nanoscience, taking into consideration the fundamental role of NPs self-assembly processes in determining the functional material properties.

The North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) plays a crucial role in determining the regional ocean surface temperature (SST), which has profound implications on the surrounding continental and coastal climate. Here, we analyze the Max Planck Institute-Grand Ensemble global warming experiments and show that the SPG can evolve in two distinct phases under continuous global warming. In the first phase, as the global mean surface temperature approaches 2-K warming, the eastern SPG intensifies in combination with a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), accompanied by a cooling of subpolar North Atlantic SST, known as the warming hole. The associated oceanic fingerprint matches with the observations over the last 15 years, where an intensification and cooling of the eastern SPG is related to salinity reduction at the eastern side of the SPG. However, for further warming beyond 2 K, in spite of a continuous decline in the AMOC, a northward shift of the mean zonal wind extends the subtropical gyre northward with an associated disruption of the eastern SPG intensification, resulting in the cessation of the warming hole. Therefore, a shift from the initially dominating oceanic drivers to the atmospheric driver results into a two-phase evolution of the North Atlantic Ocean SPG circulation and the associated SST under continuous global warming.

The main drivers of the continental Northern Hemisphere snow cover are investigated in the 1979–2014 period. Four observational datasets are used as are two large multi-model ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC). A first ensemble uses observed interannually varying SST and SIC conditions for 1979–2014, while a second ensemble is identical except for SIC with a repeated climatological cycle used. SST and external forcing typically explain 10 % to 25 % of the snow cover variance in model simulations, with a dominant forcing from the tropical and North Pacific SST during this period. In terms of the climate influence of the snow cover anomalies, both observations and models show no robust links between the November and April snow cover variability and the atmospheric circulation 1 month later. On the other hand, the first mode of Eurasian snow cover variability in January, with more extended snow over western Eurasia, is found to precede an atmospheric circulation pattern by 1 month, similar to a negative Arctic oscillation (AO). A decomposition of the variability in the model simulations shows that this relationship is mainly due to internal climate variability. Detailed outputs from one of the models indicate that the western Eurasia snow cover anomalies are preceded by a negative AO phase accompanied by a Ural blocking pattern and a stratospheric polar vortex weakening. The link between the AO and the snow cover variability is strongly related to the concomitant role of the stratospheric polar vortex, with the Eurasian snow cover acting as a positive feedback for the AO variability in winter. No robust influence of the SIC variability is found, as the sea ice loss in these simulations only drives an insignificant fraction of the snow cover anomalies, with few agreements among models.

The late-winter signal associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the European continent is unsettled. Two main anomalous patterns of sea-level pressure (SLP) can be identified: a “wave-like” pattern with two opposite-signed anomalies over Europe, and a pattern showing a single anomaly (“semi-isolated”). In this work, potential paths of the tropospheric ENSO teleconnection to Europe and their role in favoring a more wave-like or semi-isolated pattern are explored. Outputs from historical runs of two versions of the MPI-ESM coupled model, which simulate these two types of patterns, are examined. A novel ray-tracing approach that accounts for zonal asymmetries in the background flow is used to test potential propagation paths in these simulations and in observations; three source regions are considered: the tropical Pacific, the North America/North Atlantic, and the tropical Atlantic. The semi-isolated pattern is suggested to be related to the well-known Rossby wave train emanating from the tropical Pacific, either via a split over northern North America or via reflection due to inhomogeneities in the background flow. The wave-like pattern, in turn, appears to be related to a secondary wave train emerging from the tropical Atlantic. The competition between these two pathways contributes to determining the actual surface response. B.M. and J.G.-S. were supported by the “Contratos Predoctorales para la Formación de Doctores” (BES-2016-076431) and “Ramón y Cajal” (RYC-2016-21181) programmes, respectively. Tercio Ambrizzi was supported by the National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 under CNPq Grant 465501/2014-1, 301397/2019-8; FAPESP Grants 2014/50848-9 and 2017/09659-6. This study also received funding from the Spanish ATLANTE project (PID2019-110234RB-C21). We acknowledge the World Climate research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP. Technical support at BSC (Computational Earth Sciences group) is sincerely acknowledged. We also thank the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable insights.

Projected changes in the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex are analyzed using Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 experiments. Previous studies showed that projections of the wintertime zonally averaged polar vortex strength diverge widely between climate models with no agreement on the sign of change, and that this uncertainty contributes to the regional climate change uncertainty. Here, we show that there remains large uncertainty in the projected strength of the polar vortex in experiments with global warming levels ranging from moderate (SSP245 runs) to large (Abrupt-4xCO2 runs), and that the uncertainty maximizes in winter. Partitioning of the uncertainty in wintertime polar vortex strength projections reveals that, by the end of the 21st century, model uncertainty contributes half of the total uncertainty, with scenario uncertainty contributing only 10%. Regression analysis shows that up to 20% of the intermodel spread in projected precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and northwestern US, and 20%–30% in near-surface temperature over western US and northern Eurasian, can be associated with the spread in vortex strength projections after accounting for global warming. While changes in the magnitude and sign of the zonally averaged vortex strength are uncertain, most models (>95%) predict an eastward shift of the vortex by 8°–20° degrees in longitude relative to its historical location with the magnitude of the shift increasing for larger global warming levels. There is less agreement across models on a latitudinal shift, whose direction and magnitude correlate with changes in the zonally averaged vortex strength so that vortex weakening/strengthening corresponds to a southward/poleward shift., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127 (18), ISSN:0148-0227, ISSN:2169-897X

We use reanalysis data to substantiate the role of Ural Blocking (UB) in driving the Warm Arctic‐Cold Siberia (WACS) pattern, which represents an anti‐correlation of surface temperature between the Barents‐Kara Seas and Central Asia. We confirm a robust link between UB and the WACS pattern on daily to sub‐seasonal timescales. UB controls the pace of the WACS; warming over the Barents‐Kara Seas and cooling over Central Asia peak 3‐5 days after the UB onset. The observed sea‐ice deficit over the Barents‐Kara Seas in the weeks prior to UB onset is not statistically significant when the long‐term trend in sea‐ice is removed. Thus, the sea‐ice deficit may not have a direct impact on UB occurrence but it develops as a delayed response to UB. The interannual variability of WACS is also strongly linked to UB. We identify an upward trend in wintertime UB in recent decades that accounts for a cooling rate of 1∘C/decade over Central Asia. Over the Barents‐Kara Seas, UB trends explain a small fraction of the warming, which is dominated by Arctic Amplification. Finally, the link between UB and the WACS is statistically robust over the ERA‐Interim period but weaker during the 1990s when the lowest activity of UB Episodes was observed.

The paper presents a method for the scale-dependent validation of the spatio-temporal variability in global weather or climate models and for their bias quantification in relation to dynamics. The method provides a relationship between the bias and simulated spatial and temporal variance by a model in comparison with verifying reanalysis data. For the low resolution (T30L8) subset of ERA-20C data, it was found that 80–90 (depending on season) of the global interannual variance is at planetary scales (zonal wavenumbers k = 0−3), and only about 1 of the variance is at scales with k> 7. The reanalysis is used to validate a T30L8 GCM in two configurations, one with the prescribed sea-surface temperature (SST) and another using a slab ocean model. Although the model with the prescribed SST represents the average properties of surface fields well, the interannual variability is underestimated at all scales. Similar to variability, model bias is strongly scale dependent. Biases found in the experiment with the prescribed SST are largely increased in the experiment using a slab ocean, especially in k= 0 , in scales with missing variability and in seasons with poorly simulated energy distribution. The perfect model scenario (a comparison between the GCM coupled to a slab ocean vs. the same model with prescribed SSTs) shows that the representation of the ocean is not critical for synoptic to subsynoptic variability, but essential for capturing the planetary scales. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.

The impact of tropical deep convection on southern winter stationary waves and its modulation by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) have been investigated in a long (210 year) climate model simulation and in ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the period 1979–2018. Model results reveal that tropical deep convection over the region of its climatological maximum modulates high-latitude stationary planetary waves in the southern winter hemisphere, corroborating the dominant role of tropical thermal forcing in the generation of these waves. In the tropics, deep convection enhancement leads to wavenumber-1 eddy anomalies that reinforce the climatological Rossby–Kelvin wave couplet. The Rossby wave propagates toward the extratropical southern winter hemisphere and upward through the winter stratosphere reinforcing wavenumber-1 climatological eddies. As a consequence, stronger tropical deep convection is related to greater upward wave propagation and, consequently, to a stronger Brewer–Dobson circulation and a warmer polar winter stratosphere. This linkage between tropical deep convection and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter polar vortex is also found in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, model results indicate that the enhancement of deep convection observed during the easterly phase of the QBO (E-QBO) gives rise to a similar modulation of the southern winter extratropical stratosphere, which suggests that the QBO modulation of convection plays a fundamental role in the transmission of the QBO signature to the southern stratosphere during the austral winter, revealing a new pathway for the QBO–SH polar vortex connection. ERA-Interim corroborates a QBO modulation of deep convection; however, the shorter data record does not allow us to assess its possible impact on the SH polar vortex.

The atmospheric circulation response to the anthropogenic increase of CO2 is known to generally involve a number of pathways of change, often leading to contrasting responses, the so called “tug of wars”. Multiple pathways of change in atmospheric dynamics are due to the development of direct and indirect dynamical responses to global warming, the latter being the thermodynamical response to the anthropogenic increase of CO2. The most known direct dynamical response to global warming is the strengthening and poleward shift of the tropospheric eddy-driven jets, a direct consequence of the tropical upper troposphere warming. During Northern Hemisphere winter, where and when the two-way dynamical stratosphere-troposphere coupling is active, stratosphere-troposphere coupling has been shown to provide for indirect dynamical responses, which are relevant to regional circulation changes, over the North Atlantic and Eurasia, for instance affecting the European precipitation changes. However, it has been found that the dynamical response of the stratospheric vortex is highly uncertain. Changes from ensemble of models (such as the CMIP intercomparisons) show a spread in the stratospheric responses, although the stratospheric response can be significant by model. This spread in the stratospheric responses in turn leads to uncertainty in the impact on surface climate of the stratospheric change. For instance, a stratospheric vortex weakening with global warming will counteract to some extend in some regions, the strengthening and poleward shift of the tropospheric eddy-driven jets. However, a polar vortex strengthening will feedback positively on the strengthening and poleward shift of the tropospheric eddy-driven jets. Here we review our knowledge and include new selected results, based on CMIP6, on the role of dynamical stratosphere-troposphere coupling in providing for pathway of atmospheric circulation changes in response to global warming.

We investigate numerical models that display the transition of global climate modeling from coarse grids, at which convection and gravity waves are still parameterized, toward finer resolutions, where both are treated explicitly. Gravity waves generated by deep, tropical convection are examined by means of spectral analysis. We make use of the models' different setups to discuss the impacts of spatial resolution, the treatment of moist convection and the degree of model complexity, on convectively generated gravity waves. We find that substantially more gravity wave momentum flux is resolved by models with fine horizontal grid spacing, as the spectral slope is almost flat in zonal wave number space (∼k−1), until scales at which numerical diffusion sets in. However, we also find that, when well-organized tropical storm systems of large scale are simulated with convection-permitting resolution, the gravity wave variance may be enhanced at small scales and the spectral slope may flatten. We propose an explanation for this in the dynamical overshooting of convective updrafts that is expected to mechanically generate gravity waves. Further, we find that a parameterization of convection drastically reduces gravity wave momentum flux associated with tropical convection, as deep modes of latent heating and gravity waves are underestimated. Thus, its application is expected to have consequences for wave mean-flow interaction in the middle atmosphere. The universal properties of the gravity wave spectrum that were found in observations and confirmed in analytical gravity wave models are successfully reproduced in our numerical simulations of tropical dynamics. ©2018. The Authors.

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are largest instances of the boreal polar stratospheric variability. Their effects extend farther from the polar stratosphere, affecting for example near-surface circulation. According to observations, SSWs are not equally distributed along time, with decades with almost no events and decades with SSWs happening almost every winter. This suggests the existence of multidecadal variability of SSWs. Some previous studies have pointed to phenomena in the ocean surface as the main precursors of this low-frequency variability. However, the relatively short observational record and the need of long model simulations with daily output have not enabled an analysis of the influences of these oceanic phenomena on SSWsThe goal of this study is to investigate the effects of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) on SSWs. To do so, we use for the first time a large ensemble of historical experiments (Max Planck Grand Ensemble) that allows us to examine the modulation of the frequency, precursors and surface impact of SSWs by both types of oceanic variability. Our results reveal that PDV has an impact on the frequency of SSWs, with a significant higher rate of SSWs for its positive than the negative phase. As for AMV, the main effect of AMV is centered on the tropospheric response to SSWs, with almost no modulation in the occurrence of the event. This last finding would be useful in order to predict the tropospheric fingerprint of SSWs.

To examine the atmospheric responses to Arctic sea-ice variability in the Northern Hemisphere cold season (October to following March), this study uses a coordinated set of large-ensemble experiments of nine atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced with observed daily-varying sea-ice, sea-surface temperature, and radiative forcings prescribed during the 1979-2014 period, together with a parallel set of experiments where Arctic sea ice is substituted by its climatology. The simulations of the former set reproduce the near-surface temperature trends in reanalysis data, with similar amplitude, and their multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows decreasing sea-level pressure over much of the polar cap and Eurasia in boreal autumn. The MMEM difference between the two experiments allows isolating the effects of Arctic sea-ice loss, which explain a large portion of the Arctic warming trends in the lower troposphere and drives a small but statistically significant weakening of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation. The observed interannual co-variability between sea-ice extent in the Barents-Kara Seas and lagged atmospheric circulation is distinguished from the effects of confounding factors based on multiple regression, and quantitatively compared to the co-variability in MMEMs. The interannual sea-ice decline followed by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like anomaly found in observations is also seen in the MMEM differences, with consistent spatial structure but much smaller amplitude. This result suggests that the sea-ice impacts on trends and interannual atmospheric variability simulated by AGCMs could be underestimated, but caution is needed because internal atmospheric variability may have affected the observed relationship.

Blocking is associated with outbreaks of easterlies induced by a continuum of features including anticyclones, cyclones or both. Blocking identification methods disagree on the levels of high-latitude blocking (HLB) activity. We investigate the cause of the disagreement in HLB activity over the Northern Hemisphere obtained by two 2D methods: the PV– (Formula presented.) index and the Absolute Geopotential Height (AGH) reversal method. Although both classify as absolute field methods, the former yields nearly twice the winter HLB activity of the latter method. We show that this discrepancy is caused by the addition of a poleward criterion in the AGH method that requires strong poleward westerlies. The additional criterion in the AGH method shifts the focus on the detection of blocking ridges and thus other blocking circulation patterns are under-represented. Both methods agree on the climatology of midlatitude blocking because the poleward criterion has been tuned to capture the strong midlatitude blocking, but the discrepancy grows in high latitudes. HLBs are different because they occur on the northern flank of the westerlies and are associated with the equatorward displacement of the midlatitude jet. HLB anticyclones are weaker and do not induce strong poleward westerlies compared to their midlatitude counterparts. The implementation of a strict poleward criterion designed to identify midlatitude blocks rejects many HLBs. The use of the less strict cut-off threshold (CT) of 0 m (°lat)−1 in the poleward criterion for latitudes higher than 60°N results in the convergence of climatology, interannual variability and trends of HLB between the two methods, especially during winter. The additional HLBs identified by the modified AGH algorithm develop from cyclonic wave breaking that is typical for oceanic blocking. The modified AGH method can be useful in detecting more robust HLB trends in climate model projections. © 2020 The Authors.

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are the most important phenomena of the wintertime boreal stratospheric variability. During SSWs, the polar temperature increases abruptly, and easterlies prevail in the stratosphere. Their effects extend farther from the polar stratosphere, affecting near-surface circulation. According to observations, SSWs are not equally distributed in time, with decades experiencing very few events, while others experiencing SSWs almost every winter. Some sources of this SSW multidecadal variability can be traced back to sea surface temperature changes. Here, we investigate the effects of Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on SSWs. We use for the first time a large ensemble of historical experiments to examine the modulation of the frequency, tropospheric precursors, and impact of SSWs by the PDV and AMV. We find a strong impact of the PDV on the occurrence of SSWs, with a higher SSW frequency for the positive phase of the PDV. This PDV influence is mediated by constructive interference of PDV anomalies with tropospheric stationary waves. The main effect of AMV is, instead, a modulation of the tropospheric response to SSWs, a finding that can be useful for predicting the tropospheric fingerprint of SSWs.

The general circulation of the middle atmosphere, particularly of the mesosphere, is strongly dependent on the forcing arising from gravity wave processes. Their sources in the troposphere are both orographic and nonorographic, the latter being strongly intermittent. In climate models, the effects of gravity waves need to be parameterized, often assuming that their properties are constant. In this work we focus on the changes of the middle atmosphere due to the introduction of intermittency in a parameterization of nonorographic gravity waves, using a stochastic version of the Hines scheme. The stochastic approach is tailored to the diagnosed sensitivity of the model to this forcing, and peculiar changes emerge even if a relatively small amount of intermittency is prescribed. We analyze in detail the changes of the stratospheric dynamics in the tropical region and the global circulation of the middle atmosphere, when the stochastic parameterization is employed in place of the deterministic one. The mean state and variability of the model, realistic also in the default version, are preserved when stochasticity is added. Significant changes are observed in the mesosphere due to an enhanced poleward transport, leading to warming in the winter season. While there are some improvements of the mean state, the interannual variability is not significantly affected in the extratropics. The impacts on the simulated equatorial stratosphere are evident, as the stochasticity reduces the overall period of the quasi-biennial oscillation but also leads to a net reduction of the variability between cycles. ©2018. The Authors.

This study investigates the dynamics that led to the repeated cold surges over midlatitude Eurasia, exceptionally warm conditions and sea ice loss over the Arctic, and the unseasonable weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in autumn and early winter 2016-2017. We use ERA-Interim reanalysis data and COBE sea ice and sea surface temperature observational data to trace the dynamical pathways that caused these extreme phenomena. Following abnormally low sea ice conditions in early autumn over the Pacific sector of the Arctic basin, blocking anticyclones became dominant over Eurasia throughout autumn. Ural blocking (UB) activity was four times above climatological levels and organized in several successive events. UB episodes played a key role in the unprecedented sea ice loss observed in late autumn 2016 over the Barents-Kara Seas and the weakening of the stratospheric vortex. Each blocking induced circulation anomalies that resulted in cold air advection to its south and warm advection to its north. The near-surface warming anomalies over the Arctic and cooling anomalies over midlatitude Eurasia varied in phase with the life cycles of UB episodes. The sea ice cover minimum over the Barents-Kara Seas in 2016 was not observed in late summer but rather in mid-November and December shortly after the two strongest UB episodes. Each UB episode drove intense upward flux of wave activity that resulted in unseasonable weakening of the stratospheric vortex in November. The surface impact of this weakening can be linked to the migration of blocking activity and cold spells toward Europe in early winter 2017.

ICON‐A is the new icosahedral nonhydrostatic (ICON) atmospheric general circulation model in a configuration using the Max Planck Institute physics package, which originates from the ECHAM6 general circulation model, and has been adapted to account for the changed dynamical core framework. The coupling scheme between dynamics and physics employs a sequential updating by dynamics and physics, and a fixed sequence of the physical processes similar to ECHAM6. To allow a meaningful initial comparison between ICON‐A and the established ECHAM6‐LR model, a setup with similar, low resolution in terms of number of grid points and levels is chosen. The ICON‐A model is tuned on the base of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment aiming primarily at a well balanced top‐of atmosphere energy budget to make the model suitable for coupled climate and Earth system modeling. The tuning addresses first the moisture and cloud distribution to achieve the top‐of‐atmosphere energy balance, followed by the tuning of the parameterized dynamic drag aiming at reduced wind errors in the troposphere. The resulting version of ICON‐A has overall biases, which are comparable to those of ECHAM6. Problematic specific biases remain in the vertical distribution of clouds and in the stratospheric circulation, where the winter vortices are too weak. Biases in precipitable water and tropospheric temperature are, however, reduced compared to the ECHAM6. ICON‐A will serve as the basis of further development and as the atmosphere component to the coupled model, ICON‐Earth system model (ESM).

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is complicated by cardiovascular events as myocardial infarction and stroke but the underlying mechanism is still unclear. We hypothesized that endothelial dysfunction may be implicated and that endotoxemia may have a role.Fifty patients with CAP and 50 controls were enrolled. At admission and at discharge, flow-mediated dilation (FMD), serum levels of endotoxins and oxidative stress, as assessed by serum levels of nitrite/nitrate (NOx) and isoprostanes, were studied.At admission, a significant difference between patients with CAP and controls was observed for FMD (2.1±0.3 vs 4.0±0.3%, p0.001), serum endotoxins (157.8±7.6 vs 33.1±4.8pg/ml), serum isoprostanes (341±14 vs 286±10 pM, p=0.009) and NOx (24.3±1.1 vs 29.7±2.2μM). Simple linear correlation analysis showed that serum endotoxins significantly correlated with Pneumonia Severity Index score (Rs=0.386, p=0.006). Compared to baseline, at discharge CAP patients showed a significant increase of FMD and NOx (from 2.1±0.3 to 4.6±0.4%, p0.001 and from 24.3±1.1 to 31.1±1.5μM, p0.001, respectively) and a significant decrease of serum endotoxins and isoprostanes (from 157.8±7.6 to 55.5±2.3pg/ml, p0.001, and from 341±14 to 312±14 pM, p0.001, respectively). Conversely, no changes for FMD, NOx, serum endotoxins and isoprostanes were observed in controls between baseline and discharge. Changes of FMD significantly correlated with changes of serum endotoxins (Rs=-0.315; p=0.001).The study provides the first evidence that CAP is characterized by impaired FMD with a mechanism potentially involving endotoxin production and oxidative stress.

A Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar stratospheric pathway for La Niña events is established during wintertime based on reanalysis data for the 1958–2012 period. A robust polar stratospheric response is observed in the NH during strong La Niña events, characterized by a significantly stronger and cooler polar vortex. Significant wind anomalies reach the surface, and a robust impact on the North Atlantic–European (NAE) region is observed. A dynamical analysis reveals that the stronger polar stratospheric winds during La Niña winters are due to reduced upward planetary wave activity into the stratosphere. This finding is the result of destructive interference between the climatological and the anomalous La Niña tropospheric stationary eddies over the Pacific–North American region. In addition, the lack of a robust stratospheric signature during La Niña winters reported in previous studies is investigated. It is found that this is related to the lower threshold used to detect the events, which signature is consequently more prone to be obscured by the influence of other sources of variability. In particular, the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs), partly linked to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation, modulates the observed stratospheric signal. In the case of La Niña winters defined by a lower threshold, a robust stratospheric cooling is found only in the absence of SSWs. Therefore, these results highlight the importance of using a relatively restrictive threshold to define La Niña events in order to obtain a robust surface response in the NAE region through the stratosphere.

A new measure of subseasonal variability is introduced that provides a scale‐dependent estimation of vertically and meridionally integrated atmospheric variability in terms of the normal modes of linearized primitive equations. Applied to the ERA‐Interim data, the new measure shows that subseasonal variability decreases for larger zonal wave numbers. Most of variability is due to balanced (Rossby mode) dynamics but the portion associated with the inertio‐gravity (IG) modes increases as the scale reduces. Time series of globally integrated variability anomalies in ERA‐Interim show an increase in variability after year 2000. In recent years the anomalies have been about 2% above the 1981–2010 average. The relative increase in variability projecting on the IG modes is larger and more persistent than for the Rossby modes. Although the IG part is a small component of the subseasonal variability, it is an important effect likely reflecting the observed increase in the tropical precipitation variability., Key Points A new measure of global subseasonal variability provides scale and dynamics dependent variability estimatesAn increase in variability in recent years for about 2% relative to 1981 to 2010 is found in ERA‐Interim dataThe increase is larger in variability associated with inertio‐gravity modes than with Rossby modes

The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), which is an important driver of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange, is expected to accelerate with climate change. One particular consequence of this acceleration is the enhanced transport of nitrous oxide (N2O) from its sources at the Earth's surface toward its main sink region in the stratosphere, thus inducing a reduction in its lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas and the most relevant currently emitted ozone-depleting substance. Here we examine the implications of a reduced N2O lifetime in the context of climate change. We find a decrease in its global warming potential (GWP) and, due to a decline in the atmospheric N2O burden, also a reduction in its total radiative forcing. From the idealized transient global warming simulation we can identify linear regressions for N2O sink, lifetime, and GWP with temperature rise. Our findings are thus not restricted to a particular scenario.

The strong interest in Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) is motivated by their role in the two-way stratospheric-tropospheric dynamical coupling. While most studies only investigate major SSWs (vortex breakdown), the minor ones (strong vortex deceleration) are overlooked. This work aims at overcoming this gap by providing a comprehensive description of stratospheric warming events without a priori distinctions between major and minor SSWs, leading to a more complete estimate of the stratospheric variability. Warming events are extracted from reanalysis datasets by means of a mid-stratospheric polar-cap temperature daily index. Events are characterised by a bimodal distribution in amplitude, with a broad peak at small amplitudes (inferior to 5K) and a sharp peak at around 9K. Due to the intrinsic polar vortex dynamics, the warming amplitude presents a distinct seasonal distribution. Small amplitude warmings mainly occur during early- and late-wintertime by contrast with the larger amplitude ones occurring during mid-wintertime. From mid-November to mid- March, the large amplitude warmings (i.e. Strong Warming Events, SWEs) include both major and minor SSWs, as well as Canadian and Final warmings. Although major SSWs belong to the tail of the SWEs distribution, there is no clear distinction between the major and minor SSWs according to the considered properties of the events. Such result brings out the idea of “warming continuum”. Furthermore, diagnostics of heat flux reveal that there is no statistical difference between SWEs with regard to their feedbacks on the planetary waves, and hence on their potential influence into the troposphere.

Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central in determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet predictive understanding of climate dynamics is poor. In this perspective article, we identify three frontline problems in climate dynamics, in which progress is possible, and which will lead to improved predictions and projections and more robust information for climate change adaptation. These problems involve (i) the response to external forcing of storms, blocks and jet streams, (ii) ocean-basin to ocean-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections and (iii) the development of predictive theories of climate dynamics involving non-linear interactions between the dynamics and physics of the atmosphere and ocean. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in climate dynamics, namely the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments and the development and use of dynamical metrics and dynamical hierarchies of models. Our particular focus is on the role of the ocean in providing a slowly-evolving boundary condition, and its coupling and interaction with the atmosphere, that plays a central role in driving internal climate variability and in modulating forced climate change.

The role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming is investigated here by analyzing simulations performed with atmosphere-only models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation; however, until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. This study focuses on December–February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analyzed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wavenumber 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. Further, it is shown that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere are related to the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and midlatitudes near the tropopause. Evidence presented in this paper corroborate climate model simulations of future stratospheric changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.

The Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric signals of eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events are investigated in stratosphere-resolving historical simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), together with the role of the stratosphere in driving tropospheric El Niño teleconnections in NH climate. The large number of events in each composite addresses some of the previously reported concerns related to the short observational record. The results shown here highlight the importance of the seasonal evolution of the NH stratospheric signals for understanding the EP and CP surface impacts. CMIP5 models show a significantly warmer and weaker polar vortex during EP El Niño. No significant polar stratospheric response is found during CP El Niño. This is a result of differences in the timing of the intensification of the climatological wavenumber 1 through constructive interference, which occurs earlier in EP than CP events, related to the anomalous enhancement and earlier development of the Pacific–North American pattern in EP events. The northward extension of the Aleutian low and the stronger and eastward location of the high over eastern Canada during EP events are key in explaining the differences in upward wave propagation between the two types of El Niño. The influence of the polar stratosphere in driving tropospheric anomalies in the North Atlantic European region is clearly shown during EP El Niño events, facilitated by the occurrence of stratospheric summer warmings, the frequency of which is significantly higher in this case. In contrast, CMIP5 results do not support a stratospheric pathway for a remote influence of CP events on NH teleconnections.

Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

Record Arctic ozone loss in spring 2011 occurred in concert with record positive values of the tropospheric Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index raising the question about the role of stratospheric driver on this tropospheric climate event. A set of 50 years long simulations by atmospheric general circulation model European Centre/Hamburg version 5 (ECHAM5) is carried out and the responses of the model to observed anomalies in stratospheric ozone (O3) and sea surface temperatures (SST) separately and also the response to combined SST and O3 forcing (ALL) are analyzed. In all three experiments the response is characterized by a strengthening of stratospheric polar vortex in March–April. In the ALL experiment, this strengthening is followed by a significant, long-lasting shift of the tropospheric circulation toward a positive NAM phase and increased probability of occurrence of extremely positive NAM events. The combined effect of the O3 and SST forcings on the stratospheric circulation differs from the sum of the individual O3 and SST responses, most likely due to nonlinear effects, leading to a colder stratosphere in February–March. In the troposphere, the sum of the individual responses is comparable in magnitude to the ALL response, but the individual responses are delayed with respect to that in ALL. In summary, these results suggest that both ozone-induced stratospheric cooling and tropospheric forcing associated with the SST anomalies contributed to the record tropospheric climate anomalies observed in spring 2011.

The seasonal mean extra-tropical atmospheric response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is assessed in the historical and pre-industrial control CMIP5 simulations. This analysis considers two types of El Nino events, characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in either the central equatorial Pacific (CP) or eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), as well as EP and CP La Nina events, characterized by negative SST anomalies in the same two regions. Seasonal mean geopotential height anomalies in key regions typify the magnitude and structure of the disruption of the Walker circulation cell in the tropical Pacific, upper tropospheric ENSO teleconnections and the polar stratospheric response. In the CMIP5 ensembles, the magnitude of the Walker cell disruption is correlated with the strength of the mid-latitude responses in the upper troposphere i.e., the North Pacific and South Pacific lows strengthen during El Nino events. The simulated responses to El Nino and La Nina have opposite sign. The seasonal mean extra-tropical, upper tropospheric responses to EP and CP events are indistinguishable. The ENSO responses in the MERRA reanalysis lie within the model scatter of the historical simulations. Similar responses are simulated in the pre-industrial and historical CMIP5 simulations. Overall, there is a weak correlation between the strength of the tropical response to ENSO and the strength of the polar stratospheric response. ENSO-related polar stratospheric variability is best simulated in the “high-top” subset of models with a well-resolved stratosphere.

The predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is examined in initialized climate forecasts extending out to lead times of years. We use initialized retrospective predictions made with coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that have an internally generated QBO. We demonstrate predictability of the QBO extending more than 3 years into the future, well beyond timescales normally associated with internal atmospheric processes. Correlation scores with observational analyses exceed 0.7 at a lead time of 12 months. We also examine the variation of predictability with season and QBO phase and find that skill is lowest in winter. An assessment of perfect predictability suggests that higher skill may be achievable through improved initialization and climate modeling of the QBO, although this may depend on the realism of gravity wave source parameterizations in the models. Finally, we show that skilful prediction of the QBO itself does not guarantee predictability of the extratropical winter teleconnection that is important for surface winter climate prediction.

In order to simulate stratospheric phenomena, such as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) require parameterizations of small-scale gravity waves (GW). In the tropics, the main source of GWs is convection, showing high spatial and temporal variability in occurrence and strength. In this study, we implement in the GCM ECHAM6 a source parameterization for GWs forced by convection. The GW source parameterization is based on the convective heating depth, convective heating rate, and the background wind. First, we show that the heating depth distribution of convective properties strongly influences the waves' source spectra. The strong sensitivity of spectral wave characteristics on heating property distributions highlights the importance of a realistic parameterization of convective processes in a GCM. Second, with the convection-based GW scheme as the unique source of GWs, the GCM simulates a QBO with realistic features. While the vertical extent of the easterly jet shows deficiencies, the wind speeds of the jet maxima and the variance of wind alteration show a clear improvement, compared to the standard model which employs a parameterization with constant, prescribed GW sources. Furthermore, the seasonality of the QBO jets downward progression is modeled more realistically due to the seasonality of physically based gravity wave sources. Key Points Implementation of a convection-based GW source parameterization into a GCM Explore physical aspects of convection-based GW source parameterization Physical GW parameterization improves QBO © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

The relationship between atmospheric blocking over Europe and the Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream is investigated in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and in a climate model. This is carried out using a bidimensional blocking index based on geopotential height and a diagnostic providing daily latitudinal position and strength of the jet stream. It is shown that European Blocking (EB) is not decoupled from the jet stream but it is mainly associated with its poleward displacements. Moreover, the whole blocking area placed on the equatorward side of the jet stream, broadly ranging from Azores up to Scandinavia, emerges as associated with poleward jet displacements. The diagnostics are hence applied to two different climate model simulations in order to evaluate the biases in the jet stream and in the blocking representation. This analysis highlights large underestimation of EB, typical feature of general circulation models. Interestingly, observed blocking and jet biases over the Euro-Atlantic area are consistent with the blocking-jet relationship observed in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. Finally, the importance of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is investigated showing that realistic SSTs can reduce the bias in the jet stream variability but not in the frequency of EB. We conclude highlighting that blocking-related diagnostics can provide more information about the Euro-Atlantic variability than diagnostics simply based on the Atlantic jet stream.

There is evidence that the observed changes in winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drive a significant portion of Atlantic Multi Decadal Variability (AMV). However, whether the observed decadal NAO changes can be forced by the ocean is controversial. There is also evidence that artificially imposed multi-decadal stratospheric changes can impact the troposphere in winter. But the origins of such stratospheric changes are still unclear, especially in early to mid winter, where the radiative ozone-impact is negligible. Here we show, through observational analysis and atmospheric model experiments, that large-scale Atlantic warming associated with AMV drives high-latitude precursory stratospheric warming in early to mid winter that propagates downward resulting in a negative tropospheric NAO in late winter. The mechanism involves stratosphere/troposphere dynamical coupling, and can be simulated to a large extent, but only with a stratosphere resolving model (i.e., high-top). Further analysis shows that this precursory stratospheric response can be explained by the shift of the daily extremes toward more major stratospheric warming events. This shift cannot be simulated with the atmospheric (low-top) model configuration that poorly resolves the stratosphere and implements a sponge layer in upper model levels. While the potential role of the stratosphere in multi-decadal NAO and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation changes has been recognised, our results show that the stratosphere is an essential element of extra-tropical atmospheric response to ocean variability. Our findings suggest that the use of stratosphere resolving models should improve the simulation, prediction, and projection of extra-tropical climate, and lead to a better understanding of natural and anthropogenic climate change.

We describe the main differences in simulations of stratospheric climate and variability by models within the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that have a model top above the stratopause and relatively fine stratospheric vertical resolution (high-top), and those that have a model top below the stratopause (low-top). Although the simulation of mean stratospheric climate by the two model ensembles is similar, the low-top model ensemble has very weak stratospheric variability on daily and interannual time scales. The frequency of major sudden stratospheric warming events is strongly underestimated by the low-top models with less than half the frequency of events observed in the reanalysis data and high-top models. The lack of stratospheric variability in the low-top models affects their stratosphere-troposphere coupling, resulting in short-lived anomalies in the Northern Annular Mode, which do not produce long-lasting tropospheric impacts, as seen in observations. The lack of stratospheric variability, however, does not appear to have any impact on the ability of the low-top models to reproduce past stratospheric temperature trends. We find little improvement in the simulation of decadal variability for the high-top models compared to the low-top, which is likely related to the fact that neither ensemble produces a realistic dynamical response to volcanic eruptions.

Diagnostics of atmospheric momentum and energy transport are needed to investigate the origin of circulation biases in climate models and to understand the atmospheric response to natural and anthropogenic forcing. Model biases in atmospheric dynamics are one of the factors that increase uncertainty in projections of regional climate, precipitation and extreme events. Here we define requirements for diagnosing the atmospheric circulation and variability across temporal scales and for evaluating the transport of mass, momentum and energy by dynamical processes in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). These diagnostics target the assessments of both resolved and parameterized dynamical processes in climate models, a novelty for CMIP, and are particularly vital for assessing the impact of the stratosphere on surface climate change.

Diagnostics of atmospheric momentum and energy transport are needed to investigate the origin of circulation biases in climate models and to understand the atmospheric response to natural and anthropogenic forcing. Model biases in atmospheric dynamics are one of the factors that increase uncertainty in projections of regional climate, precipitation, and extreme events. Here we define requirements for diagnosing the atmospheric circulation and variability across temporal scales and for evaluating the transport of mass, momentum and energy by dynamical processes in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). These diagnostics target the assessments of both resolved and parameterized dynamical processes in climate models, a novelty for CMIP, and are particularly vital for assessing the impact of the stratosphere on surface climate change.

Platelet activation seems to be implicated in the cardiovascular events occurring in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) but the underlying mechanism is still unclear. Aim of the study was to assess the mechanism involved in platelet activation in CAP patients.Two-hundred-seventy-eight consecutive patients hospitalized for CAP were recruited and followed-up until discharge. Hospitalized patients matched for sex, age and comorbidities but without acute infectious diseases were used as controls.At hospital admission patients disclosed enhanced plasma levels of sP-selectin, a maker of in-vivo platelet activation, serum sNOX2-dp, a marker of NADPH-oxidase activation, serum Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and serum zonulin, a marker of gut permeability, compared to controls (p 0.001). Baseline sP-selectin was independently associated to serum LPS, sNOX2-sp and Pneumonia Severity Index score (p 0.001). Plasma sP-selectin, serum sNOX2-dp, LPS and zonulin coincidentally decreased at hospital discharge (p 0.001). An in vitro study showed that LPS, at concentration similar to that found in CAP patients, induced sP-selectin release by agonist-activated platelets, a phenomenon that was counteract by treating cells with gp91ds-tat, a specific inhibitor of NOX2.CAP patients display enhanced platelet activation, which is related to LPS-mediated NOX2 activation. Enhanced gut permeability seems be implicated in enhancing circulating levels of LPS.

The instrumental records indicate that the basin-wide wintertime North Atlantic warm conditions are accompanied by a pattern resembling negative North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), and cold conditions with pattern resembling the positive NAO. This relation is well reproduced in a control simulation by the stratosphere resolving atmosphere–ocean coupled Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Further analyses of the MPI-ESM model simulation shows that the large-scale warm North Atlantic conditions are associated with a stratospheric precursory signal that propagates down into the troposphere, preceding the wintertime negative NAO. Additional experiments using only the atmospheric component of MPI-ESM (ECHAM6) indicate that these stratospheric and tropospheric changes are forced by the warm North Atlantic conditions. The basin-wide warming excites a wave-induced stratospheric vortex weakening, stratosphere/troposphere coupling and a high-latitude tropospheric warming. The induced high-latitude tropospheric warming is associated with reduction of the growth rate of low-level baroclinic waves over the North Atlantic region, contributing to the negative NAO pattern. For the cold North Atlantic conditions, the strengthening of the westerlies in the coupled model is confined to the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Comparing the coupled and uncoupled model shows that in the cold phase the tropospheric changes seen in the coupled model are not well reproduced by the standalone atmospheric configuration. Our experiments provide further evidence that North Atlantic Ocean variability (NAV) impacts the coupled stratosphere/troposphere system. As NAV has been shown to be predictable on seasonal-to-decadal timescales, these results have important implications for the predictability of the extra-tropical atmospheric circulation on these time-scales

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text, Diabetes mellitus is a frequent comorbid conditions among patients with pneumonia living in the community. The aim of our study is to evaluate the impact of hospitalization for pneumonia on early (30 day) and late mortality (1 year) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Prospective comparative cohort study of 203 patients with type 2 diabetes hospitalized for pneumonia versus 206 patients with diabetes hospitalized for other noninfectious causes from January 2012 to December 2013 at Policlinico Umberto I (Rome). Enrolled patients were followed up to discharge and up to 1 year after initial hospital admission or death. Overall, 203 patients with type 2 diabetes admitted to hospital for pneumonia were compared to 206 patients with type 2 diabetes admitted for other causes (39.3% decompensated diabetes, 21.4% cerebrovascular diseases, 9.2% renal failure, 8.3% acute myocardial infarction, and 21.8% other causes). Compared to control patients, those admitted for pneumonia showed a higher 30-day (10.8% vs 1%, P