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1. Tropical Indo-Pacific SST influences on vegetation variability in eastern Africa

Author

In-Won Kim, Malte F. Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Elke Zeller, Jong-Seong Kug, So-Won Park, and Jin-Soo Kim

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

Abstract Mechanisms by which tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) influence vegetation in eastern Africa have not been fully explored. Here, we use a suite of idealized Earth system model simulations to elucidate the governing processes for eastern African interannual vegetation changes. Our analysis focuses on Tanzania. In the absence of ENSO-induced sea surface temperature anomalies in the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), El Niño causes during its peak phase negative precipitation anomalies over Tanzania due to a weakening of the tropical-wide Walker circulation and anomalous descending motion over the Indian Ocean and southeastern Africa. Resulting drought conditions increase the occurrence of wildfires, which leads to a marked decrease in vegetation cover. Subsequent wetter La Niña conditions in boreal winter reverse the phase in vegetation anomalies, causing a gradual 1-year-long recovery phase. The 2-year-long vegetation decline in Tanzania during an ENSO cycle can be explained as a double-integration of the local rainfall anomalies, which originate from the seasonally-modulated ENSO Pacific-SST forcing (Combination mode). In the presence of interannual TIO SST forcing, the southeast African precipitation and vegetation responses to ENSO are muted due to Indian Ocean warming and the resulting anomalous upward motion in the atmosphere.

Published
2021
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7. Climate effects on archaic human habitats and species successions

Author

Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Sook Yun, Pasquale Raia, Jiaoyang Ruan, Alessandro Mondanaro, Elke Zeller, Christoph Zollikofer, Marcia Ponce de León, Danielle Lemmon, Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Timmermann, Axel, Yun, Kyung-Sook, Raia, Pasquale, Ruan, Jiaoyang, Mondanaro, Alessandro, Zeller, Elke, Zollikofer, Christoph, Ponce de León, Marcia, Lemmon, Danielle, Willeit, Matteo, and Ganopolski, Andrey

Subjects
Multidisciplinary, Archaeology, Fossils, Animals, Humans, Hominidae, Biological Evolution, Ecosystem, Neanderthals
Abstract

It has long been believed that climate shifts during the last 2 million years had a pivotal role in the evolution of our genus Homo1–3. However, given the limited number of representative palaeo-climate datasets from regions of anthropological interest, it has remained challenging to quantify this linkage. Here, we use an unprecedented transient Pleistocene coupled general circulation model simulation in combination with an extensive compilation of fossil and archaeological records to study the spatiotemporal habitat suitability for five hominin species over the past 2 million years. We show that astronomically forced changes in temperature, rainfall and terrestrial net primary production had a major impact on the observed distributions of these species. During the Early Pleistocene, hominins settled primarily in environments with weak orbital-scale climate variability. This behaviour changed substantially after the mid-Pleistocene transition, when archaic humans became global wanderers who adapted to a wide range of spatial climatic gradients. Analysis of the simulated hominin habitat overlap from approximately 300–400 thousand years ago further suggests that antiphased climate disruptions in southern Africa and Eurasia contributed to the evolutionary transformation of Homo heidelbergensis populations into Homo sapiens and Neanderthals, respectively. Our robust numerical simulations of climate-induced habitat changes provide a framework to test hypotheses on our human origin.

Published
2022
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8. Human adaptation to diverse biomes over the past 3 million years

Author

Elke Zeller, Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Sook Yun, Pasquale Raia, Karl Stein, Jiaoyang Ruan, Zeller, Elke, Timmermann, Axel, Yun, Kyung-Sook, Raia, Pasquale, Stein, Karl, and Ruan, Jiaoyang

Subjects
Multidisciplinary
Abstract

To investigate the role of vegetation and ecosystem diversity on hominin adaptation and migration, we identify past human habitat preferences over time using a transient 3-million-year earth system-biome model simulation and an extensive hominin fossil and archaeological database. Our analysis shows that early African hominins predominantly lived in open environments such as grassland and dry shrubland. Migrating into Eurasia, hominins adapted to a broader range of biomes over time. By linking the location and age of hominin sites with corresponding simulated regional biomes, we also find that our ancestors actively selected for spatially diverse environments. The quantitative results lead to a new diversity hypothesis: Homo species, in particular Homo sapiens, were specially equipped to adapt to landscape mosaics. Early humans and their hominin relatives had to adapt to new environments to spread out of Africa. Zeller et al. explored the movements of hominins across and preferences for different biomes by comparing six Homo species distributions from the fossil record against simulated climate and vegetation over the past 3 million years. They found that some later species inhabited a broader range of biomes as they spread to colder and more forested areas, especially H. sapiens, which settled in more extreme habitats (deserts and tundra). In addition to adapting to changing environmental conditions over time, models suggest that Homo species may have preferentially selected areas with more diverse habitats. ?Bianca Lopez Earth system modeling shows how Pleistocene hominins spread across and selected different habitats.

Published
2023

9. Stochastic Resonance between Climate Variability and Hominin Migration in an Agent-Based Model

Author

Danielle Lemmon, Axel Timmermann, Elke Zeller, Jiaoyang Ruan, Kyungsook Yun, and Pasquale Raia

Abstract

There are many interdisciplinary theories as to how climate variability impacted hominin migration, and subsequently human evolution. One such hypothesis concerns so-called “green corridors,” in which climate and biome variability periodically opened vegetated corridors between habitable areas. The periodic opening of these corridors may have acted as a pump through uninhabitable barrier regions, allowing for more wide-spread dispersal. We present results from a climate-forced agent-based model that furthers the green corridor hypothesis to include the effect of stochastic resonance in penetrating barrier regions. In other words, while it intuitively makes sense that hominins would explore and disperse as green corridors opened up, the potential for green corridors to act as a dispersal pump likely depended on having the right amount of stochasticity (randomness) in hominin movement to resonate with orbitally-paced climate signals, effectively penetrating these corridors and dispersing into other regions. We integrate data from a 2-million-year CESM model, from the BIOME4 vegetation model, and from archaeological archives to create a map of habitat suitability based on a species-specific climate envelope. This habitat suitability forces the agent-based hominin migration model, in which agents seek more habitable areas and the added randomness in that agent movement is varied. While our conclusions are largely independent of species, we show results from a Homo erectus migration simulation. In my presentation I will discuss how stochastic hominin movement, the opening up of green corridors, and climate variability affected hominin dispersal throughout the Plio-Pleistocene.

Published
2022
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10. Early hominins were variability avoiders and diversity seekers

Author

Elke Zeller, Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Soon Yun, and Pasqual Raia

Abstract

Climate influenced the evolution of hominins, though the mechanisms and scales are still not well understood. We know that long-term climatic variations, such as wet-dry climate cycles and sea-level change, can change landscapes dramatically. Changes in landscapes can drive early hominins to find different locations to settle, but what kind of environments did they prefer and what role did changing climates play in all this? To research this question, we modeled the climate of the past 3 million years using CESM, made a best estimate of the global biome landscape, and compared the results to an extensive archeological database of hominin findings.This analysis shows us that early hominins living in Africa predominantly lived in open habitats. When hominins expanded northwards, they adapted to more forested landscapes. While they were able to adapt, most hominin locations were found in areas with less variability and higher local biome diversity, suggesting that hominins prefer stable environmental conditions with a variety of resources nearby. This preference for stability and a landscape that offers diverse biomes is seen for all hominins regardless of species.

Published
2022
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11. Simulating Pleistocene climate effect on archaic human interbreeding

Author

Jiaoyang Ruan, Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Sook Yun, Elke Zeller, and Danielle Lemmon

Abstract

Genomic data document multiple episodes of interbreeding among Neanderthals, Denisovans and Homo sapiens. When, where and how often the interbreeding between these hominin populations took place remains unclear. Here, we study the Neanderthal-Denisovan admixture during the past 400 thousand years using a novel habitat model that integrates extensive fossil, archeological, and genetic data with unprecedented transient Coupled General Circulation Model simulations of global climate and vegetation. Our Pleistocene hindcast of habitat suitability reveals pronounced climate-driven zonal shifts in the main overlap region of Denisovans and Neanderthals in central Eurasia. These shifts, which influenced timing and intensity of potential interbreeding events, can be attributed to the response of climate and vegetation to past variations in atmospheric CO2 and northern hemisphere ice-sheet volume. Therefore glacial/interglacial climate swings likely played an important role in archaic human gene flow and genetic diversification.

Published
2022
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12. Simulating climate effects on archaic human habitats and species successions

Author

Axel Timmermann, Kyungsook Yun, Pasquale Raia, Christoph Zollikofer, Marcia Ponce de Leon, Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Elke Zeller, and Jiaoyang Ruan

Abstract

It has previously been suggested that climate shifts during the last 2 million years played an important role in the evolution of our genus Homo. However, quantifying this linkage has remained challenging. Here we use an unprecedented transient Pleistocene Coupled General Circulation model simulation in combination with an extensive compilation of fossil and archaeological records, to study the spatio-temporal habitat suitability of five hominin species over the past 2 million years. We show that astronomically-forced changes in temperature, rainfall and terrestrial net primary production had a major impact on their observed distributions. During the early Pleistocene hominins primarily settled in environments with weak orbital-scale climate variability. This behaviour changed drastically after the mid-Pleistocene-transition when archaic humans became global wanderers who adapted to a wide range of spatial climatic gradients, which increased the likelihood for habitat overlap and cladogenic transitions. Our robust numerical simulations of climate-induced habitat changes provide a novel framework to test hypotheses on our human origin.

Published
2022
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13. Possible dispersal routes based on individual-based modeling forced with past climate conditions

Author

Axel Timmermann and Elke Zeller

Subjects
Individual based, Ecology, Biological dispersal, Environmental science
Abstract

It has long been hypothesized that long and short term climate changes influenced early human evolution and dispersal. With the use of paleoclimate, archeological, genetic, and climate model data, we can infer climate factors that influenced dispersal and possible migration routes. Recent research has shown that with the use of data from these different disciplines, we can model human dispersal and interactions with the environment at a group level. However, decision-based questions such as push vs. pull scenarios and what is the optimal time to move are challenging to answer using classical differential-equation based models. With the use of individual-based modeling (IBM), we can connect archeological research with paleoclimate (modeling) data and build possible dispersal scenarios.IBM has long been used in ecology to research the overall behavior of a group based on decisions made by individuals. In IBMs, each individual is modeled as a discrete agent who decides its action based on the environment and relation to other agents, thereby allowing for more individual variation and adaptation than is possible with classical differential-equation and difference-equation models.Here we present some preliminary results from our climate forced IBM. Climate variables such as net primary production, temperature, and rainfall were obtained from a transient simulation of the LOVECLIM intermediate climate model. These climate factors were used for movement decisions and influence the birthrate and life span of the agents. We show the most likely dispersal routes for different climate scenarios and the role of dispersal strategies (push vs. pull).

Published
2020
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14. Author Correction: El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity

Author

Wenju Cai, Karl Stein, Pamela R. Grothe, Sang-Wook Yeh, Jin-Ho Yoon, Tim Li, WonMoo Kim, Yann Planton, Sunyong Kim, Xuebin Zhang, Hong Li Ren, Agus Santoso, Ken Takahashi, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Scott B. Power, Sarah Ineson, Fei-Fei Jin, Matthieu Lengaigne, Kyung-Sook Yun, Daehyun Kang, Han Ching Chen, Woo Hyun Yang, Alexander Todd, Boris Dewitte, Andrew T. Wittenberg, June-Yi Lee, Eric Guilyardi, Shayne McGregor, Kim M. Cobb, Michiya Hayashi, Dietmar Dommenget, Tobias Bayr, Jong-Seong Kug, Axel Timmermann, Malte F. Stuecker, Ruihuang Xie, Soon Il An, Antonietta Capotondi, Michael J. McPhaden, Elke Zeller, Harun Rashid, Guomin Wang, Guojian Wang, Jing-Jia Luo, Yoo-Geun Ham, Institute of Basic Science (IBS), International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa] (UHM)-University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa] (UHM), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Seoul], Yonsei University, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Unité de Mathématiques Pures et Appliquées (UMPA-ENSL), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research [Aspendale], Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences [Atlanta], Georgia Institute of Technology [Atlanta], Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Seattle], University of Washington [Seattle], NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), National Taiwan University [Taiwan] (NTU), Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University (USU), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Monash University [Clayton], University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa] (UHM), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, ATLSS Center, Lehigh University, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), University of Sussex, University of South Wales (USW), University of Occupational and Environmental Health [Kitakyushu] (UEOH), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), CSIRO Marine and Atmosphere Research [Hobart], École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment

Subjects
Multidisciplinary, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Climatology, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], CobB, Mathematics
Abstract

In this Review, the middle initial of author Kim M. Cobb was omitted. The original Review has been corrected online.

Published
2019
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15. El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity

Author

Ken Takahashi, Matthieu Lengaigne, Guomin Wang, Tim Li, Antonietta Capotondi, Tobias Bayr, Michael J. McPhaden, Axel Timmermann, WonMoo Kim, Wenju Cai, Malte F. Stuecker, Sunyong Kim, Ruihuang Xie, Harun Rashid, Fei-Fei Jin, Alexander Todd, Jong-Seong Kug, Boris Dewitte, Sang-Wook Yeh, Yoo-Geun Ham, Kim M. Cobb, Elke Zeller, Agus Santoso, Scott B. Power, Dietmar Dommenget, Daehyun Kang, Michiya Hayashi, Soon Il An, Kyung-Sook Yun, Pamela R. Grothe, Guojian Wang, June-Yi Lee, Karl Stein, Jing-Jia Luo, Shayne McGregor, Eric Guilyardi, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Xuebin Zhang, Sarah Ineson, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Woo Hyun Yang, Han Ching Chen, Jin-Ho Yoon, Yann Planton, Hong Li Ren, Institute of Basic Science (IBS), Pusan National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa] (UHM), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences [Atlanta], Georgia Institute of Technology [Atlanta], Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Seattle], University of Washington [Seattle], NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), National Taiwan University [Taiwan] (NTU), Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University (USU), Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Aridas (CEAZA), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Monash University [Clayton], NCAS-Climate [Reading], Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW)-Australian Research Council [Canberra] (ARC), Instituto Geofísico del Perú (IGP), Exeter Climate Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, Korean Ocean Research and Development Institute (KORDI), Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), CSIRO, Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia, Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and University of Exeter

Subjects
El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Tropical Climate, Multidisciplinary, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate Change, Equator, Climate change, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 15. Life on land, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Earth system science, Sea surface temperature, La Niña, El Niño, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Tropical climate, Water Movements, Environmental science, Terrestrial ecosystem, 14. Life underwater, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

El Niño events are characterized by surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and weakening of equatorial trade winds that occur every few years. Such conditions are accompanied by changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, affecting global climate, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, fisheries and human activities. The alternation of warm El Niño and cold La Niña conditions, referred to as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), represents the strongest year-to-year fluctuation of the global climate system. Here we provide a synopsis of our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of this important climate mode and its influence on the Earth system.

Published
2018
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