17 results on '"Ellerbrock, Simon"'
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2. Partisan Agreement and Disagreement in Voters’ Discussant Networks
- Author
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Ellerbrock, Simon, primary
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- Author
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Breznau, Nate, primary, Rinke, Eike Mark, additional, Wuttke, Alexander, additional, Nguyen, Hung H. V., additional, Adem, Muna, additional, Adriaans, Jule, additional, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, additional, Andersen, Henrik K., additional, Auer, Daniel, additional, Azevedo, Flavio, additional, Bahnsen, Oke, additional, Balzer, Dave, additional, Bauer, Gerrit, additional, Bauer, Paul C., additional, Baumann, Markus, additional, Baute, Sharon, additional, Benoit, Verena, additional, Bernauer, Julian, additional, Berning, Carl, additional, Berthold, Anna, additional, Bethke, Felix S., additional, Biegert, Thomas, additional, Blinzler, Katharina, additional, Blumenberg, Johannes N., additional, Bobzien, Licia, additional, Bohman, Andrea, additional, Bol, Thijs, additional, Bostic, Amie, additional, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, additional, Burgdorf, Katharina, additional, Burger, Kaspar, additional, Busch, Kathrin B., additional, Carlos-Castillo, Juan, additional, Chan, Nathan, additional, Christmann, Pablo, additional, Connelly, Roxanne, additional, Czymara, Christian S., additional, Damian, Elena, additional, Ecker, Alejandro, additional, Edelmann, Achim, additional, Eger, Maureen A., additional, Ellerbrock, Simon, additional, Forke, Anna, additional, Forster, Andrea, additional, Gaasendam, Chris, additional, Gavras, Konstantin, additional, Gayle, Vernon, additional, Gessler, Theresa, additional, Gnambs, Timo, additional, Godefroidt, Amélie, additional, Grömping, Max, additional, Groß, Martin, additional, Gruber, Stefan, additional, Gummer, Tobias, additional, Hadjar, Andreas, additional, Heisig, Jan Paul, additional, Hellmeier, Sebastian, additional, Heyne, Stefanie, additional, Hirsch, Magdalena, additional, Hjerm, Mikael, additional, Hochman, Oshrat, additional, Hövermann, Andreas, additional, Hunger, Sophia, additional, Hunkler, Christian, additional, Huth, Nora, additional, Ignácz, Zsófia S., additional, Jacobs, Laura, additional, Jacobsen, Jannes, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Jungkunz, Sebastian, additional, Jungmann, Nils, additional, Kauff, Mathias, additional, Kleinert, Manuel, additional, Klinger, Julia, additional, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, additional, Kołczyńska, Marta, additional, Kuk, John, additional, Kunißen, Katharina, additional, Kurti Sinatra, Dafina, additional, Langenkamp, Alexander, additional, Lersch, Philipp M., additional, Löbel, Lea-Maria, additional, Lutscher, Philipp, additional, Mader, Matthias, additional, Madia, Joan E., additional, Malancu, Natalia, additional, Maldonado, Luis, additional, Marahrens, Helge, additional, Martin, Nicole, additional, Martinez, Paul, additional, Mayerl, Jochen, additional, Mayorga, Oscar J., additional, McManus, Patricia, additional, McWagner, Kyle, additional, Meeusen, Cecil, additional, Meierrieks, Daniel, additional, Mellon, Jonathan, additional, Merhout, Friedolin, additional, Merk, Samuel, additional, Meyer, Daniel, additional, Micheli, Leticia, additional, Mijs, Jonathan, additional, Moya, Cristóbal, additional, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, additional, Nüst, Daniel, additional, Nygård, Olav, additional, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, additional, Otte, Gunnar, additional, Pechenkina, Anna O., additional, Prosser, Christopher, additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Ralston, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Miguel R., additional, Roets, Arne, additional, Rogers, Jonathan, additional, Ropers, Guido, additional, Samuel, Robin, additional, Sand, Gregor, additional, Schachter, Ariela, additional, Schaeffer, Merlin, additional, Schieferdecker, David, additional, Schlueter, Elmar, additional, Schmidt, Regine, additional, Schmidt, Katja M., additional, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, additional, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, additional, Schneider, Jürgen, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, additional, Schumann, Sandy, additional, Schunck, Reinhard, additional, Schupp, Jürgen, additional, Seuring, Julian, additional, Silber, Henning, additional, Sleegers, Willem, additional, Sonntag, Nico, additional, Staudt, Alexander, additional, Steiber, Nadia, additional, Steiner, Nils, additional, Sternberg, Sebastian, additional, Stiers, Dieter, additional, Stojmenovska, Dragana, additional, Storz, Nora, additional, Striessnig, Erich, additional, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, additional, Teltemann, Janna, additional, Tibajev, Andrey, additional, Tung, Brian, additional, Vagni, Giacomo, additional, Van Assche, Jasper, additional, van der Linden, Meta, additional, van der Noll, Jolanda, additional, Van Hootegem, Arno, additional, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, additional, Voicu, Bogdan, additional, Wagemans, Fieke, additional, Wehl, Nadja, additional, Werner, Hannah, additional, Wiernik, Brenton M., additional, Winter, Fabian, additional, Wolf, Christof, additional, Yamada, Yuki, additional, Zhang, Nan, additional, Ziller, Conrad, additional, Zins, Stefan, additional, and Żółtak, Tomasz, additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. ch. 5 Gärtner, Wuttke, Schoen: Ties That No Longer Bind? Effects and Responsiveness of Party Attachments in a Period of Crises
- Author
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Wuttke, Alexander, Ellerbrock, Simon, Staudt, Alexander, and Gärtner, Lea
- Subjects
Merkel ,realignment ,AfD ,voting behavior ,Election Study ,SPD ,dealignment ,electoral research ,crises ,turnout ,CDU - Abstract
Reproduction material for 'Ties That No Longer Bind? Effects and Responsiveness of Party Attachments in a Period of Crises'
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. The Changing German Voter
- Author
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Wuttke, Alexander, Ellerbrock, Simon, Staudt, Alexander, Lichteblau, Josephine, and Stövsand, Lars-Christopher
- Subjects
Merkel ,realignment ,AfD ,voting behavior ,Election Study ,SPD ,dealignment ,electoral research ,crises ,turnout ,CDU - Abstract
Replication Material and Appendices for the edited volume 'The Changing German Voter', published by Oxford University Press. Editors: Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck, Sigrid Roßteutscher, Harald Schoen, Bernhard Weßels and Christof Wolf.
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- Author
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Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz
- Abstract
This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95 % of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team’s workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers’ results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
- Published
- 2022
7. How Many Replicators Does It Take to Achieve Reliability? Investigating Researcher Variability in a Crowdsourced Replication
- Author
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Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Akdeniz, Esra, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Bai, Ling, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Rooij, Eline De, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eder, Christina, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Freire, Danilo, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Halbherr, Verena, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Höffler, Jan H., Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Israel, Sabine, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kanjana, Jennifer, Kauff, Mathias, Khan, Salman, Khatua, Sayak, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, C. Lee, Robin, Lersch, Philipp M., Liu, David, Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McDonnell, Robert Myles, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Pickup, Mark, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Reichert, Frank, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Suchow, Jordan W., Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Wu, Cary, Yamada, Yuki, Zakula, Björn, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Akdeniz, Esra, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Bai, Ling, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Rooij, Eline De, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eder, Christina, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Freire, Danilo, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Halbherr, Verena, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Höffler, Jan H., Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Israel, Sabine, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kanjana, Jennifer, Kauff, Mathias, Khan, Salman, Khatua, Sayak, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, C. Lee, Robin, Lersch, Philipp M., Liu, David, Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McDonnell, Robert Myles, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Pickup, Mark, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Reichert, Frank, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Suchow, Jordan W., Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Wu, Cary, Yamada, Yuki, Zakula, Björn, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz
- Abstract
The paper reports findings from a crowdsourced replication. Eighty-four replicator teams attempted to verify results reported in an original study by running the same models with the same data. The replication involved an experimental condition. A “transparent” group received the original study and code, and an “opaque” group received the same underlying study but with only a methods section and description of the regression coefficients without size or significance, and no code. The transparent group mostly verified the original study (95.5%), while the opaque group had less success (89.4%). Qualitative investigation of the replicators’ workflows reveals many causes of non-verification. Two categories of these causes are hypothesized, routine and non-routine. After correcting non-routine errors in the research process to ensure that the results reflect a level of quality that should be present in ‘real-world’ research, the rate of verification was 96.1 in the transparent group and 92.4 in the opaque group. Two conclusions follow: (1) Although high, the verification rate suggests that it would take a minimum of three replicators per study to achieve replication reliability of at least 95 confidence assuming ecological validity in this controlled setting, and (2) like any type of scientific research, replication is prone to errors that derive from routine and undeliberate actions in the research process. The latter suggests that idiosyncratic researcher variability might provide a key to understanding part of the “reliability crisis” in social and behavioral science and is a reminder of the importance of transparent and well documented workflows.
- Published
- 2021
8. Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty
- Author
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Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, and Nguyen, Hung H. V.
- Abstract
How does noise generated by researcher decisions undermine the credibility of science? We test this by observing all decisions made among 73 research teams as they independently conduct studies on the same hypothesis with identical starting data. We find excessive variation of outcomes. When combined, the 107 observed research decisions taken across teams explained at most 2.6 of the total variance in effect sizes and 10 of the deviance in subjective conclusions. Expertise, prior beliefs and attitudes of the researchers explain even less. Each model deployed to test the hypothesis was unique, which highlights a vast universe of research design variability that is normally hidden from view and suggests humility when presenting and interpreting scientific findings.
- Published
- 2021
9. How Many Replicators Does It Take to Achieve Reliability? Investigating Researcher Variability in a Crowdsourced Replication
- Author
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Breznau, Nate, primary, Rinke, Eike Mark, additional, Wuttke, Alexander, additional, Nguyen, Hung Hoang Viet, additional, Adem, Muna, additional, Adriaans, Jule, additional, Akdeniz, Esra, additional, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, additional, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, additional, Auer, Daniel, additional, Azevedo, Flavio, additional, Bahnsen, Oke, additional, Bai, Ling, additional, Balzer, Dave, additional, Bauer, Gerrit, additional, Bauer, Paul, additional, Baumann, Markus, additional, Baute, Sharon, additional, Benoit, Verena, additional, Bernauer, Julian, additional, Berning, Carl, additional, Berthold, Anna, additional, Bethke, Felix S., additional, Biegert, Thomas, additional, Blinzler, Katharina, additional, Blumenberg, Johannes, additional, Bobzien, Licia, additional, Bohman, Andrea, additional, Bol, Thijs, additional, Bostic, Amie, additional, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, additional, Burgdorf, Katharina, additional, Burger, Kaspar, additional, Busch, Kathrin, additional, Castillo, Juan Carlos, additional, Chan, Nathan, additional, Christmann, Pablo, additional, Connelly, Roxanne, additional, Czymara, Christian S., additional, Damian, Elena, additional, de Rooij, Eline Adriane, additional, Ecker, Alejandro, additional, Edelmann, Achim, additional, Eder, Christina, additional, Eger, Maureen A., additional, Ellerbrock, Simon, additional, Forke, Anna, additional, Forster, Andrea Gabriele, additional, Freire, Danilo, additional, Gaasendam, Chris, additional, Gavras, Konstantin, additional, Gayle, Vernon, additional, Gessler, Theresa, additional, Gnambs, Timo, additional, Godefroidt, Amélie, additional, Grömping, Max, additional, Groß, Martin, additional, Gruber, Stefan, additional, Gummer, Tobias, additional, Hadjar, Andreas, additional, Halbherr, Verena, additional, Heisig, Jan Paul, additional, Hellmeier, Sebastian, additional, Heyne, Stefanie, additional, Hirsch, Magdalena, additional, Hjerm, Mikael, additional, Hochman, Oshrat, additional, Höffler, Jan H., additional, Hövermann, Andreas, additional, Hunger, Sophia, additional, Hunkler, Christian, additional, Huth, Nora, additional, Ignacz, Zsofia, additional, Israel, Sabine, additional, Jacobs, Laura, additional, Jacobsen, Jannes, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Jungkunz, Sebastian, additional, Jungmann, Nils, additional, Kanjana, Jennifer, additional, Kauff, Mathias, additional, Khan, Salman, additional, Khatua, Sayak, additional, Kleinert, Manuel, additional, Klinger, Julia, additional, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, additional, Kolczynska, Marta, additional, Kuk, John Seungmin, additional, Kunißen, Katharina, additional, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, additional, Greinert, Alexander, additional, Lee, Robin C., additional, Lersch, Philipp M., additional, Liu, David, additional, Löbel, Lea-Maria, additional, Lutscher, Philipp, additional, Mader, Matthias, additional, Madia, Joan Eliel, additional, Malancu, Natalia, additional, Maldonado, Luis, additional, Marahrens, Helge, additional, Martin, Nicole, additional, Martinez, Paul, additional, Mayerl, Jochen, additional, MAYORGA, OSCAR Jose, additional, McDonnell, Robert Myles, additional, McManus, Patricia A., additional, Wagner, Kyle, additional, Meeusen, Cecil, additional, Meierrieks, Daniel, additional, Mellon, Jonathan, additional, Merhout, Friedolin, additional, Merk, Samuel, additional, Meyer, Daniel, additional, Micheli, Leticia, additional, Mijs, Jonathan J.B., additional, Moya, Cristóbal, additional, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, additional, Nüst, Daniel, additional, Nygård, Olav, additional, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, additional, Otte, Gunnar, additional, Pechenkina, Anna, additional, Pickup, Mark, additional, Prosser, Christopher, additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Ralston, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Miguel, additional, Reichert, Frank, additional, Roets, Arne, additional, Rogers, Jonathan, additional, Ropers, Guido, additional, Samuel, Robin, additional, Sand, Gergor, additional, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, additional, Schachter, Ariela, additional, Schaeffer, Merlin, additional, Schieferdecker, David, additional, Schlueter, Elmar, additional, Schmidt, Katja, additional, Schmidt, Regine, additional, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, additional, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, additional, Schneider, Jürgen, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, additional, Schumann, Sandy, additional, Schunck, Reinhard, additional, Schupp, Juergen, additional, Seuring, Julian, additional, Silber, Henning, additional, Sleegers, Willem W. A., additional, Sonntag, Nico, additional, Staudt, Alexander, additional, Steiber, Nadia, additional, Steiner, Nils, additional, Sternberg, Sebastian, additional, Stiers, Dieter, additional, Stojmenovska, Dragana, additional, Storz, Nora, additional, Striessnig, Erich, additional, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, additional, Suchow, Jordan, additional, Teltemann, Janna, additional, Tibajev, Andrey, additional, Tung, Brian B., additional, Vagni, Giacomo, additional, Van Assche, Jasper, additional, van der Linden, Meta, additional, van der Noll, Jolanda, additional, Van Hootegem, Arno, additional, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, additional, Voicu, Bogdan, additional, Wagemans, Fieke, additional, Wehl, Nadja, additional, Werner, Hannah, additional, Wiernik, Brenton M., additional, Winter, Fabian, additional, Wolf, Christof, additional, Wu, Cary, additional, Yamada, Yuki, additional, Zakula, Björn, additional, Zhang, Nan, additional, Ziller, Conrad, additional, Zins, Stefan, additional, and Żółtak, Tomasz, additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
10. Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty
- Author
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Breznau, Nate, primary, Rinke, Eike Mark, additional, Wuttke, Alexander, additional, Adem, Muna, additional, Adriaans, Jule, additional, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, additional, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, additional, Auer, Daniel, additional, Azevedo, Flavio, additional, Bahnsen, Oke, additional, Balzer, Dave, additional, Bauer, Gerrit, additional, Bauer, Paul, additional, Baumann, Markus, additional, Baute, Sharon, additional, Benoit, Verena, additional, Bernauer, Julian, additional, Berning, Carl, additional, Berthold, Anna, additional, Bethke, Felix S., additional, Biegert, Thomas, additional, Blinzler, Katharina, additional, Blumenberg, Johannes, additional, Bobzien, Licia, additional, Bohman, Andrea, additional, Bol, Thijs, additional, Bostic, Amie, additional, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, additional, Burgdorf, Katharina, additional, Burger, Kaspar, additional, Busch, Kathrin, additional, Castillo, Juan Carlos, additional, Chan, Nathan, additional, Christmann, Pablo, additional, Connelly, Roxanne, additional, Czymara, Christian S., additional, Damian, Elena, additional, Ecker, Alejandro, additional, Edelmann, Achim, additional, Eger, Maureen A., additional, Ellerbrock, Simon, additional, Forke, Anna, additional, Forster, Andrea Gabriele, additional, Gaasendam, Chris, additional, Gavras, Konstantin, additional, Gayle, Vernon, additional, Gessler, Theresa, additional, Gnambs, Timo, additional, Godefroidt, Amélie, additional, Grömping, Max, additional, Groß, Martin, additional, Gruber, Stefan, additional, Gummer, Tobias, additional, Hadjar, Andreas, additional, Heisig, Jan Paul, additional, Hellmeier, Sebastian, additional, Heyne, Stefanie, additional, Hirsch, Magdalena, additional, Hjerm, Mikael, additional, Hochman, Oshrat, additional, Hövermann, Andreas, additional, Hunger, Sophia, additional, Hunkler, Christian, additional, Huth-Stöckle, Nora, additional, Ignacz, Zsofia, additional, Jacobs, Laura, additional, Jacobsen, Jannes, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Jungkunz, Sebastian, additional, Jungmann, Nils, additional, Kauff, Mathias, additional, Kleinert, Manuel, additional, Klinger, Julia, additional, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, additional, Kołczyńska, Marta, additional, Kuk, John Seungmin, additional, Kunißen, Katharina, additional, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, additional, Greinert, Alexander, additional, Lersch, Philipp M., additional, Löbel, Lea-Maria, additional, Lutscher, Philipp, additional, Mader, Matthias, additional, Madia, Joan Eliel, additional, Malancu, Natalia, additional, Maldonado, Luis, additional, Marahrens, Helge, additional, Martin, Nicole, additional, Martinez, Paul, additional, Mayerl, Jochen, additional, MAYORGA, OSCAR Jose, additional, McManus, Patricia A., additional, Wagner, Kyle, additional, Meeusen, Cecil, additional, Meierrieks, Daniel, additional, Mellon, Jonathan, additional, Merhout, Friedolin, additional, Merk, Samuel, additional, Meyer, Daniel, additional, Micheli, Leticia, additional, Mijs, Jonathan J.B., additional, Moya, Cristóbal, additional, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, additional, Nüst, Daniel, additional, Nygård, Olav, additional, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, additional, Otte, Gunnar, additional, Pechenkina, Anna, additional, Prosser, Christopher, additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Ralston, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Miguel, additional, Roets, Arne, additional, Rogers, Jonathan, additional, Ropers, Guido, additional, Samuel, Robin, additional, Sand, Gergor, additional, Schachter, Ariela, additional, Schaeffer, Merlin, additional, Schieferdecker, David, additional, Schlueter, Elmar, additional, Schmidt, Katja, additional, Schmidt, Regine, additional, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, additional, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, additional, Schneider, Jürgen, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, additional, Schumann, Sandy, additional, Schunck, Reinhard, additional, Schupp, Juergen, additional, Seuring, Julian, additional, Silber, Henning, additional, Sleegers, Willem W. A., additional, Sonntag, Nico, additional, Staudt, Alexander, additional, Steiber, Nadia, additional, Steiner, Nils, additional, Sternberg, Sebastian, additional, Stiers, Dieter, additional, Stojmenovska, Dragana, additional, Storz, Nora, additional, Striessnig, Erich, additional, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, additional, Teltemann, Janna, additional, Tibajev, Andrey, additional, Tung, Brian B., additional, Vagni, Giacomo, additional, Van Assche, Jasper, additional, van der Linden, Meta, additional, van der Noll, Jolanda, additional, Van Hootegem, Arno, additional, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, additional, Voicu, Bogdan, additional, Wagemans, Fieke, additional, Wehl, Nadja, additional, Werner, Hannah, additional, Wiernik, Brenton M., additional, Winter, Fabian, additional, Wolf, Christof, additional, Yamada, Yuki, additional, Zhang, Nan, additional, Ziller, Conrad, additional, Zins, Stefan, additional, Żółtak, Tomasz, additional, and Nguyen, Hung Hoang Viet, additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
11. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report
- Author
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Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul, Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Berning, Carl, Bernauer, Julian, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bol, Thijs, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian, Damian, Elena, Edelmann, Achim, Ecker, Alejandro, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gaasendam, Chris, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Greinert, Alexander, Groß, Martin, Grömping, Max, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Huth, Nora, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kolczynska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti, Dafina, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan Eliel, Malancu, Natalia Cornelia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, MAYORGA, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gergor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Juergen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Striessnig, Erich, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke Maria Antoinet, Wagner, Kyle, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Zakula, Björn, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Zhang, Nan, and Żółtak, Tomasz
- Subjects
Sociologie & sciences sociales [H10] [Sciences sociales & comportementales, psychologie] ,Open Science ,Sociology & social sciences [H10] [Social & behavioral sciences, psychology] ,Data Science ,Replication ,Crowdsourcing ,Immigration ,Social Policy - Abstract
In an era of mass migration, social scientists, populist parties and social movements raise concerns over the future of immigration-destination societies. What impacts does this have on policy and social solidarity? Comparative cross-national research, relying mostly on secondary data, has findings in different directions. There is a threat of selective model reporting and lack of replicability. The heterogeneity of countries obscures attempts to clearly define data-generating models. P-hacking and HARKing lurk among standard research practices in this area.This project employs crowdsourcing to address these issues. It draws on replication, deliberation, meta-analysis and harnessing the power of many minds at once. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative carries two main goals, (a) to better investigate the linkage between immigration and social policy preferences across countries, and (b) to develop crowdsourcing as a social science method. The Executive Report provides short reviews of the area of social policy preferences and immigration, and the methods and impetus behind crowdsourcing plus a description of the entire project. Three main areas of findings will appear in three papers, that are registered as PAPs or in process.
- Published
- 2019
12. Populism, nativism, and economic uncertainty. playing the blame game in the 2017 British, French, and German Elections
- Author
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Ellerbrock, Simon, primary
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
13. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report.
- Author
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Breznau, Nate, primary, Rinke, Eike Mark, additional, Wuttke, Alexander, additional, Adem, Muna, additional, Adriaans, Jule, additional, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, additional, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, additional, Auer, Daniel, additional, Azevedo, Flavio, additional, Bahnsen, Oke, additional, Balzer, Dave, additional, Bauer, Gerrit, additional, Bauer, Paul, additional, Baumann, Markus, additional, Baute, Sharon, additional, Benoit, Verena, additional, Berning, Carl, additional, Bernauer, Julian, additional, Berthold, Anna, additional, Bethke, Felix, additional, Biegert, Thomas, additional, Blinzler, Katharina, additional, Blumenberg, Johannes, additional, Bol, Thijs, additional, Bobzien, Licia, additional, Bohman, Andrea, additional, Bostic, Amie, additional, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, additional, Burgdorf, Katharina, additional, Burger, Kaspar, additional, Busch, Kathrin, additional, Castillo, Juan Carlos, additional, Chan, Nathan, additional, Christmann, Pablo, additional, Connelly, Roxanne, additional, Czymara, Christian S., additional, Damian, Elena, additional, Edelmann, Achim, additional, Ecker, Alejandro, additional, Eger, Maureen A., additional, Ellerbrock, Simon, additional, Forke, Anna, additional, Forster, Andrea Gabriele, additional, Gavras, Konstantin, additional, Gayle, Vernon, additional, Gaasendam, Chris, additional, Gessler, Theresa, additional, Gnambs, Timo, additional, Godefroidt, Amélie, additional, Greinert, Alexander, additional, Groß, Martin, additional, Grömping, Max, additional, Gruber, Stefan, additional, Gummer, Tobias, additional, Hadjar, Andreas, additional, Heisig, Jan Paul, additional, Hellmeier, Sebastian, additional, Heyne, Stefanie, additional, Hirsch, Magdalena, additional, Hjerm, Mikael, additional, Hochman, Oshrat, additional, Höffler, Jan H., additional, Hövermann, Andreas, additional, Huth, Nora, additional, Hunger, Sophia, additional, Hunkler, Christian, additional, Ignacz, Zsofia, additional, Jacobs, Laura, additional, Jacobsen, Jannes, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Jungkunz, Sebastian, additional, Jungmann, Nils, additional, Kauff, Mathias, additional, Kleinert, Manuel, additional, Klinger, Julia, additional, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, additional, Kolczynska, Marta, additional, Kuk, John, additional, Kunißen, Katharina, additional, Kurti, Dafina, additional, Lersch, Philipp M., additional, Löbel, Lea-Maria, additional, Lutscher, Philipp, additional, Mader, Matthias, additional, Madia, Joan Eliel, additional, Malancu, Natalia Cornelia, additional, Maldonado, Luis, additional, Marahrens, Helge, additional, Martin, Nicole, additional, Martinez, Paul, additional, Mayerl, Jochen, additional, MAYORGA, OSCAR Jose, additional, McManus, Patricia A., additional, Meeusen, Cecil, additional, Meierrieks, Daniel, additional, Mellon, Jonathan, additional, Merhout, Friedolin, additional, Merk, Samuel, additional, Meyer, Daniel, additional, Micheli, Leticia, additional, Mijs, Jonathan, additional, Moya, Cristóbal, additional, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, additional, Nüst, Daniel, additional, Nygård, Olav, additional, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, additional, Otte, Gunnar, additional, Pechenkina, Anna, additional, Prosser, Christopher, additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Ralston, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Miguel, additional, Roets, Arne, additional, Rogers, Jonathan, additional, Ropers, Guido, additional, Samuel, Robin, additional, Sand, Gergor, additional, Schachter, Ariela, additional, Schaeffer, Merlin, additional, Schieferdecker, David, additional, Schlueter, Elmar, additional, Schmidt, Katja, additional, Schmidt, Regine, additional, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, additional, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, additional, Schneider, Jürgen, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, additional, Schumann, Sandy, additional, Schunck, Reinhard, additional, Schupp, Juergen, additional, Seuring, Julian, additional, Silber, Henning, additional, Sleegers, Willem W. A., additional, Sonntag, Nico, additional, Staudt, Alexander, additional, Steiber, Nadia, additional, Steiner, Nils, additional, Sternberg, Sebastian, additional, Stiers, Dieter, additional, Striessnig, Erich, additional, Stojmenovska, Dragana, additional, Storz, Nora, additional, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, additional, Teltemann, Janna, additional, Tibajev, Andrey, additional, Tung, Brian B., additional, Vagni, Giacomo, additional, Van Assche, Jasper, additional, van der Linden, Meta, additional, van der Noll, Jolanda, additional, Van Hootegem, Arno, additional, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, additional, Voicu, Bogdan, additional, Wagemans, Fieke Maria Antoinet, additional, Wagner, Kyle, additional, Wehl, Nadja, additional, Werner, Hannah, additional, Wiernik, Brenton M., additional, Winter, Fabian, additional, Wolf, Christof, additional, Yamada, Yuki, additional, Zakula, Björn, additional, Ziller, Conrad, additional, Zins, Stefan, additional, Zhang, Nan, additional, Żółtak, Tomasz, additional, and Nguyen, Hung Hoang Viet, additional
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
14. Kein Frieden in Sicht. Das Heidelberger Konfliktbarometer
- Author
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Ellerbrock, Simon and Hachemer, Peter
- Abstract
Es reicht nicht aus, die Opfer zu zählen, um Konfl ikte und Kriege zu verstehen. Dennoch basieren viele wissenschaftliche Arbeiten auf diesem schlichten Modell. Das „Heidelberger Konfl iktbarometer“ geht anders vor: Es versucht, möglichst viele Merkmale zu berücksichtigen, die Krisen bis hin zu kriegerischen Auseinandersetzungen begleiten. Die Wissenschaftler tragen damit zu einem umfassenden Verständnis der kriegerischen Dynamik bei und liefern Daten für die Konfliktfrühwarnung., Ruperto Carola, Nr. 4 (2014): Krieg & Frieden, Beginn und Erscheinungsfrequenz: Nummer: 1, Jahr: 2012, Ausgaben pro Band: 2
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
15. Populism, nativism, and economic uncertainty. playing the blame game in the 2017 British, French, and German Elections: by Delton T. Daigle, Joséphine Neulen, and Austin Hofeman, Cham, Palgrave Pivot, 2019, x+101pp., statistical appendix, index, 57 € (hardback), ISBN 978-3-030-02435-2
- Author
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Ellerbrock, Simon
- Subjects
- *
POPULISM , *NONFICTION - Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
16. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report
- Author
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Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul, Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Berning, Carl, Bernauer, Julian, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bol, Thijs, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian, Damian, Elena, Edelmann, Achim, Ecker, Alejandro, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gaasendam, Chris, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Greinert, Alexander, Groß, Martin, Grömping, Max, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Huth, Nora, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kolczynska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti, Dafina, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan Eliel, Malancu, Natalia Cornelia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, Mcmanus, Patricia, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gergor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Juergen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Striessnig, Erich, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper, Linden, Meta, Noll, Jolanda, Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke Maria Antoinet, Wagner, Kyle, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Zakula, Björn, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Zhang, Nan, and Tomasz Żółtak
17. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- Author
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Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H.V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti Sinatra, Dafina, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H.V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti Sinatra, Dafina, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz
- Abstract
This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
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