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Our understanding of the processes that control the burden and budget of tropospheric ozone has changed dramatically over the last 60 years. Models are the key tools used to understand these changes, and these underscore that there are many processes important in controlling the tropospheric ozone budget. In this critical review, we assess our evolving understanding of these processes, both physical and chemical. We review model simulations from the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Chemistry Climate Modelling Initiative to assess the changes in the tropospheric ozone burden and its budget from 1850 to 2010. Analysis of these data indicates that there has been significant growth in the ozone burden from 1850 to 2000 (approximately 43 + 9%) but smaller growth between 1960 and 2000 (approximately 16 + 10%) and that the models simulate burdens of ozone well within recent satellite estimates. The Chemistry Climate Modelling Initiative model ozone budgets indicate that the net chemical production of ozone in the troposphere plateaued in the 1990s and has not changed since then inspite of increases in the burden. There has been a shift in net ozone production in the troposphere being greatest in the northern mid and high latitudes to the northern tropics, driven by the regional evolution of precursor emissions. An analysis of the evolution of tropospheric ozone through the 21st century, as simulated by Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models, reveals a large source of uncertainty associated with models themselves (i.e., in the way that they simulate the chemical and physical processes that control tropospheric ozone). This structural uncertainty is greatest in the near term (two to three decades), but emissions scenarios dominate uncertainty in the longer term (2050–2100) evolution of tropospheric ozone. This intrinsic model uncertainty prevents robust predictions of near-term change

[1] Recent studies have shown that measured OH under NOx-limited, high-isoprene conditions are many times higher than modeled OH. In this study, a detailed analysis of the HOx radical budgets under low-NOx, rural conditions was performed employing a box model based on the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.2). The model results were compared with HOx radical measurements performed during the international HOxComp campaign carried out in Jülich, Germany, during summer 2005. Two different air masses influenced the measurement site denoted as high-NOx (NO, 1-3 ppbv) and low-NOx (NO, < 1 ppbv) periods. Both modeled OH and HO2 diurnal profiles lay within the measurement range of all HOx measurement techniques, with correlation slopes between measured and modeled OH and HO2 around unity. Recently discovered interference in HO2 measurements caused by RO2 cross sensitivity was found to cause a 30% increase in measured HO2 during daytime on average. After correction of the measured HO2 data, the model HO2 is still in good agreement with the observations at high NOx but overpredicts HO2 by a factor of 1.3 to 1.8 at low NOx. In addition, for two different set of measurements, a missing OH source of 3.6 ± 1.6 and 4.9 ± 2.2 ppb h−1 was estimated from the experimental OH budget during the low-NOx period using the corrected HO2 data. The measured diurnal profile of the HO2/OH ratio, calculated using the corrected HO2, is well reproduced by the MCM at high NOx but is significantly overestimated at low NOx. Thus, the cycling between OH and HO2 is better described by the model at high NOx than at low NOx. Therefore, similar comprehensive field measurements accompanied by model studies are urgently needed to investigate HOx recycling under low-NOx conditions.