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Integrating ice‐sheet models with empirical data pertaining to palaeo‐ice sheets promotes advances in the models used in sea‐level predictions and can improve our understanding of past ice‐sheet behaviour. The large number of empirical constraints on the last British–Irish Ice Sheet make it ideal for model–data comparison experiments. Here, we present an ensemble of 600 model simulations, which are compared with data on former ice‐flow extent, flow geometry and deglaciation timing. Simulations which poorly recreate data were ruled out, allowing us to examine the remaining physically realistic simulations which capture the ice sheets' behavioural tendencies. Our results led to a novel reconstruction of behaviour in the data‐poor region of the North Sea, insights into the ice stream, potential ice‐shelf and readvance dynamics, and the potential locations of peripheral ice caps. We also propose that the asynchronous behaviour of the British–Irish Ice Sheet is a consequence of the geography of the British Isles and the merging and splitting of different bodies of ice through saddle merger and collapse. Furthermore, persistent model–data mismatches highlight the need for model development, especially regarding the physics of ice–ocean interactions. Thus, this work highlights the power of integrating models and data, a long‐held aim of palaeoglaciology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Andean glaciers are losing mass rapidly but a centennial‐scale context to those rates is lacking. Here we show the extent of >5,500 glaciers during the Little Ice Age chronozone (LIA; c. 1,400 to c. 1,850) and compute an overall area change of −25% from then to year 2000 at an average rate of −36.5 km2 yr−1 or −0.11% yr−1. Glaciers in the Tropical Andes (Peru, Bolivia) have depleted the most; median −56% of LIA area, and the fastest; median −0.16% yr−1. Up to 10 × acceleration in glacier area loss has occurred in Tropical mountain sub‐regions comparing LIA to 2,000 rates to post‐2000 rates. Regional climate controls inter‐regional variability, whereas local factors affect intra‐region glacier response time. Analyzing glacier area change by river basins and by protected areas leads us to suggest that conservation and environmental management strategies should be re‐visited as proglacial areas expand. Plain Language Summary: Andean glaciers are melting fast but how that rate compares in a longer‐term context is unknown. In this study we mapped the extent of >5,500 glaciers during the Little Ice Age, which was the last major glacial advance culminating about c. 150 years ago. We analyzed the change in glacier size and computed overall area change of −25% from the LIA to year 2000 at a rate of −36.5 km2 per year or −0.11% per year. Glaciers within Peru and Bolivia have shrunk the most by median −56% of LIA area, and the fastest by median −0.16% per year. We discuss that these glaciers are depleting and retreating due to climate change but that response is compounded by glacier size, shape and terminus environment effects. As glaciers melt they reveal proglacial landscapes that tend to be highly unstable, impacting water resources, natural hazards and terrestrial and aquatic ecology. Key Points: Little Ice Age (LIA) chronozone extent of >5,500 glaciers mapped from geomorphological evidenceOverall glacier area change of −25% to year 2000 at a rate of −36.5 km2 yr−1 or −0.11% yr−1Up to 10 × acceleration in glacier area loss for Tropical sub‐regions comparing LIA to 2,000 with post‐2000 rates [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Sea Last Interglacial sea level is sensitive to the fingerprint of mass loss from polar ice sheets. However, the signal is complicated by the influence of glacial isostatic adjustment driven by Penultimate Glacial Period ice-sheet changes, and yet these ice-sheet geometries remain significantly uncertain. Here, we produce new reconstructions of the Eurasian ice sheet during the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (PGM) by employing large ensemble experiments from a simple ice-sheet model that depends solely on basal shear stress, ice extent, and topography. To explore the range of uncertainty in possible ice geometries, we use a parameterised shear-stress map as input that has been developed to incorporate bedrock characteristics and the influence of ice-sheet basal processes. We perform Bayesian uncertainty quantification, utilising Gaussian process emulation, to calibrate against global ice-sheet reconstructions of the Last Deglaciation and rule out combinations of input parameters that produce unrealistic ice sheets. The refined parameter space is then applied to the PGM to create an ensemble of constrained 3D Eurasian ice-sheet geometries. Our reconstructed PGM Eurasian ice-sheet volume is 48±8 m sea-level equivalent (SLE). We find that the Barents–Kara Sea region displays both the largest mean volume and volume uncertainty of 24±8 m SLE while the British–Irish sector volume of 1.7±0.2 m SLE is the smallest. Our new workflow may be applied to other locations and periods where ice-sheet histories have limited empirical data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Greenland Ice Sheet is a large contributor to global sea-level rise, and current mass losses are projected to accelerate. However, model projections of future ice-sheet evolution are limited by the fact that the ice sheet is not in equilibrium with present-day climate, but is still adjusting to past changes that occurred over thousands of years. Whilst the influence of such committed adjustments on future ice-sheet evolution remains unquantified, it could be addressed by calibrating numerical ice sheet models over larger timescales and, importantly, against empirical data on ice margin positions. To enable such paleo data-model interactions, we need Greenland-wide empirical reconstructions of past ice-sheet extent that combine geomorphological and geochronological evidence. Despite an increasing number of field studies producing new chronologies, such a reconstruction is currently lacking in Greenland. Furthermore, a time-slice reconstruction can help: i) answer open questions regarding the rate and pattern of ice margin evolution in Greenland since the glacial maximum, ii) develop a standardised record of empirical data, and iii) identify understudied sites for new field campaigns. Based on these motivations, we here present PaleoGrIS 1.0, the first Greenland-wide isochrone reconstruction of ice-sheet extent evolution through the Late-Glacial and early-to-mid Holocene informed by both geomorphological and geochronological markers. Our isochrones have a temporal resolution of 500 years and span ~7.5 kyr from approximately 14 to 6.5 kyr BP. We here describe the resulting reconstruction of the shrinking ice sheet and conduct a series of ice-sheet wide and regional analyses to quantify retreat rates, areal extent change, and their variability across space and time. During the Late-Glacial and early-to-mid Holocene, we find the Greenland Ice Sheet has lost about one third of its areal extent (0.89 million km²). Between ~14 and ~8.5 kyr BP, it experienced a near constant rate of areal extent loss of 170 ± 27 km² yr-1. We find the ice-sheet-scale pattern of margin retreat is well correlated to atmospheric and oceanic temperature variations, which implies a high sensitivity of the ice sheet to deglacial warming. However, during the Holocene, we observe inertia in the icesheet system that likely caused a centennial to millennial-scale time lag in ice-extent response. At the regional scale, we observe highly heterogeneous deglacial responses in ice-extent evident in both magnitude and rate of retreat. We hypothesise that non-climatic factors, such as the asymmetrical nature of continental shelves and onshore bed topographies, play important roles in determining the regional-to-valley scale dynamics. PaleoGrIS 1.0 is an open-access database designed to be used by both the empirical and numerical modelling communities. It should prove a useful basis for improved future versions of the reconstruction when new geomorphological and geochronological data become available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a mathematical model to investigate the effect of basal topography and ice surface slope on transport and deposition of sediment within a water-filled subglacial channel. In our model, three zones of different behaviour occur. In the zone furthest upstream, variations in basal topography lead to sediment deposition under a wide range of conditions. In this first zone, even very small and gradually varying basal undulations (~5 m amplitude) can lead to the deposition of sediment within a modelled channel. Deposition is concentrated on the downstream gradient of subglacial ridges, and on the upstream gradient of subglacial troughs. The thickness and steepness of the ice sheet has a substantial impact on deposition rates, with shallow ice profiles strongly promoting both the magnitude and extent of sediment deposition. In a second zone, all sediment is transported downstream. Finally, a third zone close to the ice margin is characterised by high rates of sediment deposition. The existence of these zones has implications for esker formation and the dynamics of the subglacial environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plateau icefields are large stores of freshwater, preconditioned to enhanced mass loss due to their gently sloping accumulation areas. Accurately modelling the mass-balance of these icefields is therefore vital for obtaining projections of their future contribution to sea-level rise. Here, we use the COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and mass-balance model in PYthon (COSIPY) to simulate the historical and potential future mass balance of the Juneau Icefield, Alaska -- a high elevation (>1200 m) plateau icefield. We force the model with dynamically downscaled climate simulations, pertaining to both the past and potential future (RCP 8.5) conditions. The rich dataset of surface mass balance observations of the Juneau Icefield allows us to tune COSIPY, providing confidence in our future predictions and highlighting changes to the icefield between the years 1980 and 2019. Icefield-wide negative mass balances were simulated from the start of the 21st century, as many glaciers transitioned from positive to negative mass-balances. Under RCP8.5, the model simulates increasing negative mass balance across Juneau Icefield, with the entire icefield potentially displaying a negative mass balance by the mid-21st century. This simulated loss of accumulation is driven by increased temperatures and reduced amounts of snowfall, exposing more of the icefield to thinning. Ice thinning is likely to be exacerbated by the exposure of ice to melting across the plateau surface, and prolonged melt may lead to an increase in disconnections, splitting glaciers between their accumulation and ablation areas at icefalls. The similar hypsometry of other high latitude plateau icefields and ice caps may mean that similar processes will act to determine their potential fate in our changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Palaeo‐ice sheets are important analogues for understanding contemporary ice sheets, offering a record of ice sheet behaviour that spans millennia. There are two main approaches to reconstructing palaeo‐ice sheets. Empirical reconstructions use the available glacial geological and chronological evidence to estimate ice sheet extent and dynamics but lack direct consideration of ice physics. In contrast, numerically modelled simulations implement ice physics, but often lack direct quantitative comparison with empirical evidence. Despite being long identified as a fruitful scientific endeavour, few ice sheet reconstructions attempt to reconcile the empirical and model‐based approaches. To achieve this goal, model‐data comparison procedures are required. Here, we compare three numerically modelled simulations of the former British–Irish Ice Sheet with the following lines of evidence: (a) position and shape of former margin positions, recorded by moraines; (b) former ice‐flow direction and flow‐switching, recorded by flowsets of subglacial bedforms; and (c) the timing of ice‐free conditions, recorded by geochronological data. These model–data comparisons provide a useful framework for quantifying the degree of fit between numerical model simulations and empirical constraints. Such tools are vital for reconciling numerical modelling and empirical evidence, the combination of which will lead to more robust palaeo‐ice sheet reconstructions with greater explicative and ultimately predictive power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]